Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The concern about sanctions has weakened, and crude oil has broken through to a new low. The fundamentals of the oil market are bearish, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production significantly, weakening US refined oil demand, and increasing inventories. Technically, crude oil is in a short - term downward trend and may face accelerated decline [1][2]. - Various chemical products, including styrene, rubber, PX, PTA, PP, methanol, PVC, ethylene glycol, and plastic, are generally under bearish pressure in terms of fundamentals and technical analysis, with most suggesting holding short - term short positions [5][8][15]. 3. Summary by Related Categories (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: OPEC+ decided to continue a substantial production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. US refined oil demand has been weakening, and inventories have been accumulating. The "recession expectation" trading tendency may return after the cold US non - farm payrolls in July. The attention to the August 8 deadline has decreased [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil is in a medium - term shock/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It broke through the lower edge of the late - July shock range today, with short - term resistance at 511. There was an opportunity to try short positions last night, with a stop - loss reference at 511 [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The cost of pure benzene remains under pressure. High profits in styrene have stimulated supply and new device launches, increasing supply pressure. Demand has been weak, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of styrene is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward path, with short - term resistance at 7375. Short positions should be held [5]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Seasonally, rubber prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but supply has not increased despite normal weather. High tire inventories have led to weaker demand expectations than in previous years, and high - inventory pressure has continued to accumulate seasonally, driving the fundamentals downward [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward path, with short - term resistance at 15120 and 15 - minute resistance at 14600. Short positions should be held [8]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: High tire inventories have led to weaker demand expectations. Supply capacity has been released due to device restarts, and the short - term low inventory of butadiene may turn bearish after more arrivals. The fundamentals are bearish [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term shock/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward path, with short - term resistance at 11550. Short positions should be held [12]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The downstream terminal's off - peak and peak season conversion has led to a slight increase in start - up, but overall, the upstream and downstream start - up changes are small. It may follow the direction of crude oil [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX is in a short - term downward structure. Today's decline on reduced positions continued the downward path, with short - term resistance at 6825. Short positions should be held (partially take profit and wait to re - enter after a 15 - minute break) [15]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The upstream and downstream start - up has remained stable, and inventory is neutral. It may follow the direction of crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA is in a short - term downward structure. Today's rebound and then decline on reduced positions continued the downward path, with short - term resistance at 4760. Short positions should be held [17]. (7) PP - **Logic**: During the off - season, downstream start - up has been weak. New capacity has been put into operation, and devices have restarted after maintenance, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are bearish, and attention should be paid to crude oil trends [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward structure after a short - term sharp decline. The resistance at 7195 is far, and the 15 - minute resistance at 7100 can be focused on first. Short positions should be held [19]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Port inventories have continued to accumulate, domestic devices have restarted after maintenance, and start - up has increased. Downstream demand is generally okay, with short - term contradictions being small [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol is in a medium - term downward/shock structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. Today's intraday shock, with short - term resistance at 2400. Short positions should be held [22]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Some devices have restarted after maintenance, and terminal demand has remained weak due to the ongoing real - estate downturn and the off - season. After the exchange's position limit and the Politburo meeting, speculative funds have withdrawn, leading to a short - term downward correction [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward path, with short - term resistance at 5070. Short positions should be held [24]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Low inventories after continuous decline in port inventories provide short - term support, but terminal demand remains weak. The present situation is strong, but the expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the time when inventories start to accumulate [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of EG is in a medium - term shock/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's decline on increased positions, with short - term resistance at 4425. Short positions should be held [26]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Devices have restarted after maintenance, start - up has increased, and new capacity has been put into operation, leading to large supply pressure. Downstream start - up has remained at a low level year - on - year, and supply - demand drivers are bearish [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic is in a medium - term shock/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a shock structure. The hourly - level structure is not clear, but the 15 - minute level has turned bearish again, providing an opportunity to enter short positions. Short - term short positions can be tried with a stop - loss at 7315 [30].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report indicates that crude oil continues to be weak, and the energy and chemical sectors are undergoing an oscillatory repair. The fundamentals of various products are under different pressures, with most showing a bearish trend in the short - term, and their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost changes, while also being influenced by the trend of crude oil [1][2]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Logic: On August 3, the OPEC+ meeting decided to continue a significant production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. refined oil apparent demand has been weakening in the past two weeks, and after consecutive inventory builds of crude oil and refined oil, the support from low inventory has weakened. There is also a tendency for "recession expectations" trading in the macro - environment [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, with the short - term pressure level shifting down to 516. The strategy is to look for opportunities to go short after a rebound [1][2]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The cost of pure benzene remains under pressure. High profits in benzene ethylene stimulate increased supply and new device production, leading to greater supply pressure. Demand remains weak, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory without changing the downward path. The short - term pressure is at 7375, and the 15 - minute pressure is at 7325. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonally, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year's rubber supply is difficult to increase, and terminal tire inventories are much higher than historical levels, resulting in weaker demand expectations. High - inventory pressure drives the fundamentals downward [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory without changing the downward path. The short - term pressure is at 15120, and the 15 - minute pressure is at 14600. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: High terminal tire inventories lead to weaker demand expectations. Supply - side device restarts and capacity releases maintain high production. Although the short - term inventory of butadiene is low, it will be bearish after more arrivals. The fundamentals are bearish [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory without changing the downward path. The short - term pressure is at 11550. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The start - up of downstream terminals has increased during the off - peak to peak season transition, but overall changes in upstream and downstream start - ups are small. The short - term fundamentals have few contradictions and may follow the direction of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. There was a rebound repair today, with the 15 - minute cycle turning bullish, but the hourly - level has not reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle (partially take profit and re - enter after the 15 - minute cycle breaks through) [17]. PTA - Logic: Upstream and downstream start - ups remain stable, and inventory is neutral. The short - term fundamentals have no contradictions and may follow the direction of crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. There was a rebound repair today, with the 15 - minute cycle turning bullish, but the hourly - level has not reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle (partially take profit and re - enter after the 15 - minute cycle breaks through) [19]. PP - Logic: During the demand off - season, downstream start - ups are weak. With new capacity launches and restart of maintenance devices, inventories at all levels are continuously building. The fundamentals are bearish, and attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [22]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and after a sharp short - term decline, the slope was repaired without changing the declining structure. The pressure level at 7195 is far away, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure at 7100 can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22]. Methanol - Logic: Port inventories continue to build, domestic maintenance devices have restarted, and the start - up rate has increased, remaining at the highest level in history. Downstream demand is average for olefins and good for traditional downstream sectors, with few short - term contradictions [25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term declining/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the short - term pressure is at 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [25]. PVC - Logic: Some devices have ended maintenance and start - ups have increased. Terminal demand remains weak due to the ongoing real - estate downturn and the off - season. After the exchange restricted positions and the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution, speculative funds withdrew, leading to a short - term downward correction [27]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term rising structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the downward path remained unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: After consecutive declines, low port inventories provide short - term support, but terminal demand remains weak. The current situation is strong, but the expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the time when inventories start to build [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the short - term pressure is at 4425. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29]. Plastic - Logic: Maintenance devices have restarted, start - ups have increased, and new capacity has been launched, resulting in large supply pressure. Downstream start - ups remain at a low level year - on - year and are weak. The supply - demand situation is bearish [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for the 15 - minute cycle to turn into a declining structure. The 15 - minute support is at 4395. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and pay attention to the opportunity for the 15 - minute cycle to break through and reverse [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector is oscillating to repair the previous sharp decline. The fundamentals of various products are under different pressures, and the technical analysis shows mostly short - term downward structures, with corresponding trading strategies mainly being to hold short positions or seek opportunities to go short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: On August 3rd, OPEC+ decided to continue a substantial production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. refined oil apparent demand has been weakening in the past two weeks, and the low - inventory support has diminished after continuous inventory accumulation. There is a tendency for "recession expectation" trading in the macro - environment, but potential Trump sanctions against Russia may cause short - term disturbances [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a new low, the upper pressure level has moved down to 516. The strategy is to seek opportunities to go short on rebounds [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The cost of pure benzene remains under pressure. High profits stimulate increased supply and new device production, while demand is weak. The high - inventory, high - supply, and weak - demand pattern will continue to pressure the fundamentals [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. The upper short - term pressure is at 7375, and the 15 - minute pressure is at 7325. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [6]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: According to seasonal logic, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year's supply is difficult to increase, and high tire inventories lead to weak demand expectations. The high - inventory pressure from seasonal inventory accumulation makes the fundamental drive downward [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a short - term sharp decline, it is repairing the slope. The upper pressure is at 15120. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [10]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: High tire inventories lead to weak demand expectations. Supply - side device restarts and capacity releases maintain high production. The short - term inventory of butadiene is low, but it will turn bearish after more arrivals. The fundamentals are bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a short - term sharp decline, it is repairing the slope. The upper pressure is at 11550. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The start - up of downstream terminals has increased during the off - peak to peak season conversion, but overall changes in upstream and downstream start - ups are small. It may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. The upper pressure is at 6775. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: Upstream and downstream start - ups remain stable, and inventory is neutral. There is no short - term fundamental contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19][22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a new low, the decline structure is confirmed. The upper pressure is at 4715. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22]. 7. PP - **Logic**: It is the demand off - season, and downstream start - ups are weak. New capacity is put into production, and maintenance devices are restarted, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The fundamental drive is downward, and the movement of crude oil should be monitored [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a short - term sharp decline, it is repairing the slope. The upper pressure level is at 7195, and the 15 - minute pressure can be focused on at 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, domestic maintenance devices are restarted, and start - ups are increasing. Downstream demand is average for olefins and good for traditional downstream, with no short - term contradictions [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is declining/oscillating, and the short - term structure is declining. The upper short - term pressure is at 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [26]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: Some devices have ended maintenance, and start - ups have increased. Terminal demand remains weak due to the real - estate downturn and the off - season. After the exchange restricted positions and the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution, speculative funds withdrew, and prices are repairing downward in the short term [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a late - session reduction in positions and a rebound, the downward path remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Low port inventories after continuous decline provide short - term support, but terminal demand remains weak. The present is strong, but the expectation is weak. The time when inventories turn to accumulation should be monitored [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. The upper short - term pressure is at 4425. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: Maintenance devices are restarted, start - ups are increasing, and new capacity is put into production, leading to high supply pressure. Downstream start - ups remain at a low level year - on - year, and the supply - demand drive is bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level structure is oscillating. After a reduction in positions and a rebound, the hourly - level structure is unclear, and the 15 - minute level has turned bullish. It follows market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions and can stop profit [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Crude oil has significantly declined, putting pressure on the energy and chemical sector to continue weakening. Most varieties in the sector are in a situation where the medium - term structure is oscillating and the short - term structure is bearish, with the recommended strategy of holding short positions [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: On August 3rd, OPEC+ decided to continue a substantial production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. refined oil apparent demand has been weakening in the past two weeks, and after continuous inventory accumulation of crude oil and refined oil, the support of low inventory has weakened. The market has shifted from weak expectations to the stage of weak reality realization, and the weight of fundamentals has increased. There may be a tendency of "recession expectation" trading in the macro - economy after the cold U.S. non - farm payrolls in July. However, potential short - term disturbances caused by Trump's sanctions on Russia should be guarded against [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a long bearish candlestick with heavy volume today, the short - term structure has reversed. The upper pressure level is around 530, and currently, the 516 level of the 15 - minute short - term decline can be referred to. The strategy is to look for opportunities to go short after the rebound ends (first focus on the 15 - minute level) [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The pressure on pure benzene at the cost end remains high. The considerable profit of styrene stimulates the increase of supply and production capacity utilization, and the supply pressure further increases with the commissioning of new plants. The demand side has been lackluster, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure under the pattern of high inventory, high supply, and weak demand [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is declining. After reaching a low point today, it rebounded slightly, and the intraday oscillation did not change the downward path. The short - term upper pressure can be temporarily focused on the 7375 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: According to the seasonal logic, the price should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply of rubber has been difficult to increase under normal weather conditions. The high inventory of terminal tires far exceeding historical levels has made the demand expectation weaker than in previous years. Coupled with the high inventory pressure of continuous seasonal inventory accumulation, the fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also declining. It oscillated intraday today, and after a short - term sharp decline, the slope was repaired. The upper pressure can be focused on the 15120 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The high inventory of terminal tires far exceeding historical levels has made the demand expectation weaker than in previous years. The supply side has released production capacity with the restart of plants, and the production and operation rate have remained high. The short - term inventory of butadiene at the cost end is low with little pressure, but it will also be bearish after the increase of arrivals in the future. The fundamentals are bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It oscillated intraday today, and after a short - term sharp decline, the slope was repaired. The upper pressure can be focused on the 11550 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: There is little change in the overall operation rate of upstream and downstream industries during the conversion of peak and off - peak seasons of downstream terminals. There is little short - term fundamental contradiction, and it may follow the direction of crude oil at the cost end [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is declining. It continued to decline with increasing positions today, and the downward structure was confirmed after reaching a new short - term low. The upper pressure level of 6980 is far away, and the 6830 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be referred to first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: The operation rates of upstream and downstream industries remain stable with little change, and the inventory is at a neutral level. There is no short - term fundamental contradiction, and it may follow the direction of crude oil at the cost end [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is declining. It continued to decline with increasing positions today, and the downward structure was confirmed after reaching a new short - term low. The upper pressure level of 4900 is far away, and the 4785 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be referred to first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - **Logic**: It is the off - season for demand, and the downstream operation rate is weak. Coupled with the commissioning of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance plants, the inventory at all links has continued to accumulate. The fundamental driving force is downward, and the trend of crude oil should also be noted [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is declining. It oscillated intraday today, and after a short - term sharp decline, the slope was repaired to some extent without changing the downward structure. The upper pressure level of 7195 is far away, and the 7140 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The inventory at ports has continued to accumulate, and domestic maintenance plants have restarted, with the operation rate increasing and remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The demand for olefins in the downstream is average, while that of traditional downstream industries is good, and the overall situation is acceptable with little short - term contradiction [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of methanol is declining/oscillating, and the short - term structure is declining. It oscillated intraday today, with the center of gravity slowly moving down. The upper pressure can be temporarily focused on the 2425 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [26]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: Some plants have ended maintenance and the operation rate has increased. The terminal demand continues to be weak due to the ongoing decline of the real estate industry and the off - season. After the exchange restricted positions and the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution, the speculative funds with previous expectations withdrew, and the price has been downward - adjusting in the short term [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of PVC is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. It continued to decline with increasing positions today, and the downward path remained unchanged. The short - term upper pressure can be focused on the 5070 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: After continuous decline, the low inventory at ports provides short - term support, but the terminal demand remains weak. The current situation is relatively strong, but the expectation is weak. The time point when the inventory turns to accumulation should be noted [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of EG is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It oscillated intraday today, with the center of gravity slowly moving down. The short - term upper pressure level of 4490 is far away, and the 4410 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: Maintenance plants have restarted, and the operation rate has increased. Coupled with the commissioning of new production capacity, the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream operation rate remains at a low level year - on - year and continues to be weak. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level structure is oscillating. It rebounded slightly after a decline today, and the hourly - level structure is not clear, following the market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in tariffs on rubber and tire imports to the United States, highlighting that while tariffs on certain Chinese tires remain unchanged, other products have seen a reduction in tariffs, which may have limited impact on the overall market due to low export volumes from China [2][5]. Tariff Modifications - Tariffs on Chinese passenger car and light truck tires remain at 25%, while other Chinese tires have been reduced to 10% (with a 24% rate paused for 90 days) [2][3]. - For Southeast Asian tires, tariffs remain unchanged at 25% for passenger and light truck tires, and 0% for other types [2]. Impact on Rubber Products - The reduction in tariffs for Chinese rubber products is down to 10% from a previous 24% [3]. - The actual volume of Chinese tires exported to the U.S. is low, with only 310,000 tons expected in 2024, translating to a mere 50,000 tons of rubber, indicating that tariff changes may not significantly affect rubber consumption [4]. Market Reactions and Expectations - The market has experienced a decline of 2,000 points, primarily driven by recession expectations and long positions being liquidated, rather than the direct impact of the 232 tariff [5][9]. - There is a noted decrease in bullish sentiment due to changes in underlying market logic, with supply exceeding market expectations [5][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply from major rubber-producing countries like Thailand and Indonesia has shown a year-on-year increase of over 10%, contradicting previous expectations of supply constraints [11]. - The article suggests that the basic logic of a long-term supply-demand gap may need to be reassessed based on current supply data [10]. U.S. Demand and Economic Indicators - U.S. freight demand has been weak, with cargo volumes near historical lows, which correlates with overall economic performance and PMI levels [18]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor terminal demand changes and how companies respond to tariff impacts, as these factors will influence inventory cycles [18]. International Tire Manufacturers' Perspectives - Major international tire manufacturers, such as Goodyear and Michelin, have expressed concerns about increased costs due to tariffs, estimating potential annual costs of $300 million, which they plan to pass on to consumers [29][32]. - There is an expectation that the effects of tariffs on tire imports may not be fully realized until the third quarter of the year [30]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment among international tire manufacturers is pessimistic regarding the impact of trade wars on tire and automotive demand, with expectations of reduced production in North America [32][33].

Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate is projected to be 1.7% in 2024, with a slight increase to 1.83% in 2025[11] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is estimated at 2.38%[11] - The GDP growth rate for 2023 is expected to be around 2.30%[11] Market Trends - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a potential decline of 4.0% in Q1 2024[11] - Inflation rates are projected to stabilize around 2.0% in the coming quarters[11] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at approximately 4.0%[11] Financial Projections - The interest rate is expected to rise gradually, reaching around 5.6% by the end of 2024[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) is projected to increase by 3.0% in 2024[15] - The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious optimism, with a focus on sustainable growth strategies[12]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the market turbulence caused by Trump's tariff policies, global stock markets experienced a surprising "V-shaped" rebound in April, largely due to measures taken by the Trump administration to soften trade policies, which reassured investors about potential government intervention if economic data worsened [1][19][20]. Market Performance - In April, the S&P 500 index fell by only 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 3.2%, and the Nasdaq index actually rose by 0.9%. The Nasdaq experienced a maximum drawdown of 16% in the first week but rebounded by approximately 18% in the following weeks [4][9]. - The Dow and S&P 500 indices have seen seven consecutive days of gains, with the S&P 500's increase over this period being the largest since November 2020 [3][2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, yet the stock market showed strong rebounds, with the Dow Jones up by 0.3% and the S&P 500 up by 0.1% on the day of the contraction announcement [2]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a wide fluctuation of 50 basis points in April, closing at 4.173%, slightly down from 4.245% a month prior [7]. Asset Class Performance - The U.S. dollar fell over 4% in April, marking its largest monthly decline since November 2022 and the second-largest since September 2010 [10]. - Gold prices increased by nearly 6%, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains, while Bitcoin surged by 14%, achieving its best monthly performance since the election-driven rally in November [11]. - Conversely, WTI crude oil had its worst monthly performance since November 2021, closing at its lowest level since February 2021 [12]. Market Divergence - There is a notable divergence in U.S. economic data, with strong "hard data" contrasting with collapsing "soft data," leading to investor confusion regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [13][15]. - Institutional investors remain cautious despite the S&P 500's 14% rise since April 7, while retail investors are aggressively increasing their positions, particularly in the Nasdaq market, reflecting a more optimistic sentiment [16][17]. Market Logic Behind Rebound - The market's recovery is attributed to the Trump administration's measures to soften trade policies, including a 90-day tariff suspension and exemptions for tech products, which have made investors believe that further government action will be taken if economic conditions deteriorate [19][20]. - Weak economic data has fueled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reviving the "bad news is good news" market logic [23]. Historical Context - The April market rebound presents both good and bad news for investors. Historically, major monthly drawdowns have often led to subsequent gains, with 9 out of 10 instances showing positive performance in the following months. However, the exception in December 1973 during the "Nixon Shock" raises concerns about potential stagnation [25][26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between nominal interest rates, inflation, and government bond prices, emphasizing that nominal interest rates serve as a proxy for risk-free rates and are influenced by economic growth and inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Inflation and Interest Rates - CPI is a crucial indicator of inflation; an increase in CPI from 2 to 5 leads to higher nominal return expectations, resulting in rising risk-free rates and falling government bond prices [2]. - Actual interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) are positively correlated with economic growth, while nominal rates are positively correlated with both economic growth and inflation [2]. Group 2: Mechanism of Bond Price Changes - When nominal interest rates decrease, government bond prices increase as investors seek higher yields from fixed-income products [3]. - Conversely, when nominal interest rates rise, government bond prices decline due to new bonds offering higher yields [4]. Group 3: Key Factors Influencing 30-Year Bonds - The two main factors affecting 30-year government bonds are actual interest rates and CPI growth rates; both factors inversely affect bond prices [5][6]. - A simultaneous decrease in actual interest rates and CPI growth rates leads to a significant increase in bond prices, while simultaneous increases lead to a substantial decrease [7]. Group 4: Determinants of Actual Interest Rates - Economic conditions significantly influence actual interest rates, reflecting borrowing costs and market supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Central bank policies, including adjustments to open market operations and reserve requirements, play a critical role in shaping actual interest rates [9]. Group 5: Factors Affecting 30-Year Bond ETF - Changes in interest rates directly impact ETF net values; rising yields lead to declining net values, while falling yields boost net values [10]. - The shape of the yield curve affects the attractiveness of 30-year bonds; a steepening curve may reduce demand for long-term bonds, while a flattening or inverted curve enhances their appeal [11][12]. - Inflation expectations can suppress ETF prices, while recession expectations can lower rates and benefit ETF prices [13][14]. Group 6: Conclusion and Investment Strategy - The 30-year government bond ETF acts as a "barometer" for interest rate markets, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and investor behavior [15]. - Investors should focus on interest rate path expectations, ETF premium/discount risks, and inflation expectations when making investment decisions [16][17][18]. - In a rate-cutting environment, it is generally advisable to take long positions in government bonds, although inappropriate rate cuts could lead to rising CPI and hinder market rate declines [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in various commodities, highlighting the impact of U.S. government policies on prices, particularly in copper and gold, while also addressing the broader economic indicators such as PPI and unemployment claims [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. February PPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.3%, while month-on-month it remained flat against an expected rise of 0.3% [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was reported at 220,000, lower than the expected 225,000, indicating a stable labor market [1]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - Copper prices have risen significantly, reaching $9,797 per ton, up nearly 12% year-to-date, with expectations from Citigroup that prices may exceed $10,000 per ton in the next three months due to tight global supply [1][3]. - Gold prices have reached a historical high, driven by market uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs on European goods, with February CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, easing inflation concerns [2][18]. Group 3: Industry News - The Chinese central bank reiterated its commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, indicating potential for future rate cuts and liquidity support [5]. - Major steel mills in China have announced a price reduction for coke, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the steel industry [7]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The oil market is under pressure due to U.S. protectionist policies affecting trade with Canada and Mexico, with a general bearish outlook for crude oil prices [10]. - The domestic demand for copper remains stable, supported by high electricity investment and growth in household appliances, although real estate data continues to show weakness [19]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is experiencing fluctuations, with soybean meal prices rising due to concerns over supply tightness from Canada, while overall soybean supply remains ample [30]. - The price of apples has shown volatility, with a decrease in cold storage inventory indicating a potential increase in demand as the season progresses [32]. Group 6: Metal Prices - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range, supported by stable domestic demand from the automotive and construction sectors [20]. - Aluminum prices are showing a slight increase, driven by a recovery in downstream demand and a clear direction towards monetary easing in China [21]. Group 7: Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index has shown weakness, with a significant drop in contract prices due to reduced demand and increased tariffs affecting trade routes [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in inflation, commodity prices, and the impact of U.S. trade policies on various markets, particularly focusing on gold, oil, and copper [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year inflation rate of 2.8%, which is lower than the previous month's 3.0% and below market expectations of 2.9% [1][2]. - The CPI's month-on-month growth rate dropped significantly from 0.5% in January to 0.2% in February, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures [2][18]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have continued to strengthen, driven by the lower-than-expected inflation data and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies [2][18]. - The oil market is primarily bearish, influenced by U.S. President Trump's protectionist policies, which have disrupted global markets and led to increased tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico [3][10]. - Copper prices have shown a slight increase, supported by stable domestic demand in China, particularly in the power and appliance sectors, despite ongoing concerns about the real estate market [19][20]. Group 3: Government Budget and Fiscal Policies - The U.S. government reported a budget deficit of $307 billion for February, compared to $296.3 billion in the same month last year, with total revenues of $296 billion and expenditures of $603 billion, both reaching historical highs for the month [4]. - The Chinese government is actively working on policies to accelerate economic growth and mitigate uncertainties, as discussed in the State Council's recent meeting [5]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - Japan's Ministry of Agriculture is considering setting a target to increase rice exports to 350,000 tons by 2030, which is eight times the previous year's export volume [6]. - The domestic market for methanol is experiencing a slight decline in production, with overall operating rates at 71.64%, reflecting a decrease in demand [11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The article notes that the recent tariffs imposed on Canadian imports have led to increased prices for certain agricultural products, particularly in the oilseed sector, although the impact on canola oil prices is limited due to low import volumes [29][30]. - The soybean market remains stable, with expectations of increased imports in the coming months, which may suppress short-term prices for soybean meal [31]. Group 6: Shipping and Freight - The shipping index for European routes has shown signs of weakness, with expectations of further price reductions due to seasonal demand fluctuations and overcapacity in the market [39]. - The article highlights that shipping companies are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to market conditions, with potential implications for freight rates in the coming months [39].