中金研究 本报告阐述我们对印度尼西亚经济2026年第一季度的展望。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 宏观经济：2025年底加 速增长， 预示2026年持续增长 印度尼西亚2025年收官，第四季度GDP增速为5.39%（高于彭博一致预期），推动全年增速升至5.11%。家庭消费强劲、劳动力状况改善、固定资产投资 稳固以及制造业韧性是主要驱动力，采矿业是唯一收缩的行业。我们认为，这一势头叠加财政支持与Danantara资金投放，为印尼央行（BI）预测2026年 GDP增长5.3%提供了有力支撑，前提是外部风险可控且印尼盾保持稳定。 MSCI与穆迪双重警告揭示风险 2026年初，摩根士丹利资本国际公司明晟指数（MSCI）与穆迪（Moody's）发出警告，强调治理、自由流通量、政策可预测性及Danantara相关担忧，引 发雅加达综合指数（JCI）波动。我们认为临时补救措施或可避免立即降级，但2026年后的持续增长需要加强BI与财政部的独立性、提升税收占GDP比重 （2025年以支撑增长为12%，亚太地区为19.5%），并提高Danantara的透明度，以扭转外国直接投资疲软态势。 印度尼西亚谨慎支持的 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：美伊冲突升级，甲醇涨停 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 144.67 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.45 万吨。其中，华东地区略有去库，库存减少 0.05 万吨； 华南地区累库，库存增加 1.50 万吨。本期甲醇港口库存较节前窄幅积累，虽周 期内外轮卸货速度较为一般（两周显性卸入 24.24 万吨），但假期提货受限同步 影响消耗。江苏沿江部分库区有船发支撑提货，但汽运提货寡淡，外轮供应下库 存积累；浙江下游表现持稳，卸船不多导致库存下降。本周华南港口库存小幅累 库。广东地区周期内进口及内贸船货均有抵港，受假期影响主流库区提货量明显 减少，库存呈现累库。福建地区无船货补充，下游开工降低导致消耗速度放缓， 提货表现一般，库存窄幅去库。 【宏观面分析】 1、中共中央政治局 2 月 27 日召开会议，会议强调，要继续实施更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。 2、中国人民银行决定自 2026 年 3 月 2 日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准 备金率从 20%下 ...

信用风险展望 | 融资担保行业 信用风险展望 融资担保行业 融资担保行业 2026 年信用风险展望 从信用中介向战略支点 "双轨制"下的职能深化与信用筑基 摘要：2025 年，政策引导与市场需求的双重作用下，担保机构聚焦主业推进业务转型， 对科技创新领域的支持力度增强、普惠领域的支持不断深化，风险缓释作用进一步凸显，债券 担保余额回升,贷款担保业务拓展意愿提升；市场化担保机构资产安全性及流动性整体保持良 好，表内债务管理压力整体较小，同时资本水平整体充足，整体信用质量保持高位稳定，政府 性融资担保机构信用质量仍分化较为明显。展望 2026 年，行业将在深化政策性职能与探索市 场化创新中推进业务持续转型，头部担保机构将继续占据主导地位；尽管面临经济环境复杂、 局部信用风险暴露等多重挑战，但在金融监管全面加强、财政政策持续优化的支持下，行业风 险抵御能力有望增强，整体信用质量将维持稳定。 一、行业供给能力分析 1.1 资本充足性 2025 年，市场化担保机构资本水平整体较为充足，未来业务拓展空间较大，政府性融资 担保机构的资本补充压力相对较大；预计 2026 年，担保机构资本水平仍将延续分化特征，市 场化机构的资 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 宏观经济周报 如何理解"灵活高效" 中央经济工作会议将"促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升"确立为 2026 年 货币政策的重要考量，并提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕"。这一表述中的"灵活高效"四字，为预判今年货币政策操 作节奏提供了关键线索。 "灵活"指向操作的应对性与相机抉择。与过去几年"靠前发力"的明确指 引不同，"灵活"意味着降准降息等总量工具的运用将更多依据经济形势变 化动态调整，而非在年初集中释放。考虑到 1-2 月高频数据显示经济运行总 体平稳，短期内全面降息的紧迫性有所下降。"高效"则强调在政策空间收 窄背景下，需强化与财政政策的协同配合。"两会"后特别国债发行概率较 大，届时利率债供给将明显增加，需要降准予以流动性配合，这为总量工具 的分步操作提供了现实场景。 据此判断，2026 年降准与降息可能分开落地：二季度先降准以配合发债，下 半年根据经济形势择机降息。空间上，当前加权平均存款准备金率已降至 6.2%，距离 5%下限较近，未来下调空间有限；商业银行净息差显著低于合意 水平，政策利率调降需与银行负债成本下降相匹配，目前活期 ...

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The US economy faces stagflation risks, with Q4 2025 GDP growth below expectations due to government shutdown impacts[13] - Non-farm employment data showed unexpected rebound, but the unemployment rate remains a concern as it may adjust after March[14] - The Eurozone is experiencing weak recovery, with February manufacturing PMI entering expansion territory for the first time since mid-2025[21] Group 2: Domestic Economic Performance - During the Spring Festival, national consumption-related industries saw a daily average sales increase of 13.7% compared to last year[30] - Smart products like smart glasses and intelligent robots saw sales growth of 47.3% and 32.7% respectively during the holiday[30] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to be strong, with key product operating rates exceeding January averages[38] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank's monetary policy remains cautious, focusing on structural tools to support key sectors while maintaining liquidity stability[5] - Fiscal policy is actively supporting economic stability, with over 1.5 trillion yuan in new local special bonds issued by February 26, 2026[46] - The government is expected to prioritize spending on technology innovation and social welfare in the first quarter[46] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic changes pose significant threats to domestic economic stability[6] - Inflation concerns are rising, with the Fed's rate cut window likely closed in the first half of 2026, impacting future monetary policy decisions[15]

国债期货研发报告 国债期货 12 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 关注"两会"政策信息 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2 月债市先强后弱，期债盘面估值多数时间相对偏低。截止 2 月 26 日 收盘，TS、TF、T、TL 下季合约月内分别+0.02%、+0.07%、+0.08%、 +0.08%；IRR 分别为 1.3501%、1.3663%、1.5736%、1.7096%。 【市场展望】 国内基本面平稳，外需支撑尚存的情况下，随着"两会"临近，年内财 政力度与发力方向明确前，债市长端情绪预计仍将偏谨慎。与此同时，从与 资金利差角度看，政策利率调降预期升温前，中短端做多赔率也相对不足。 缺乏利多因素的驱动，短期内债市走势或将有所反复，月末机构行为变化存 在进一步放大市场波动的可能性。 但中期维度，考虑到年内财政政策力度或不会超出市场预期，结构性的 物价修复导致货币政策收紧的概率不高以及外部环境的不确定性同样尚未 完全消除等因素，我们暂维持对债市走势偏乐观的判断。 曲线方面，当前中短端斜率相对平坦，长端偏陡峭，主要原因可能还是 与投资者沿着收益率曲线挖掘正 Carry 且风险小的交易与配置机会有关。 后续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

新华社图 根据央行此前公告，2月有3000亿元MLF到期，央行此次MLF续作加量3000亿元，为连续第12月加量续作。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，央行2月份加量续作MLF，延续较大规模中期流动性净投放，能够有效应对潜在的流动性收紧态 势，引导资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。 连续第12月加量续作 王青分析，2月份有3000亿元MLF到期，意味着央行2月份MLF续作加量3000亿元，为连续第12月加量，加量规模小于上月的7000亿 元。不过，2月两个期限品种的买断式逆回购净投放6000亿元，意味着2月中期流动性净投放总额达到9000亿元，为连续第10个月净投 放，净投放规模仅略低于上月的1万亿元，继续处于偏高水平（2025年中期流动性月均净投放规模为4134亿元）。 王青判断，开年两个月央行显著加大包括MLF在内的中期流动性净投放规模，背后可能有多重原因。 一是为保障重点领域重大项目资金需求，稳定宏观经济运行，2026年新增地方政府债务限额已提前下达，财政继续前置发力。这意味 着尽管2月存在春节长假因素，但仍会有较大规模的政府债券发行。 每经记者｜张寿林 每经编辑｜张益铭 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2月25 ...

国际货币基金组织表示，美国的一种替代性政策组合可在实现特朗普政府目标的同时避免负面影响。 在一份对美国经济的评估中，国际货币基金组织（IMF）重点关注了2025年推出的政策转变对美国、其 贸易伙伴和全球经济的宏观经济影响。 该组织得出结论，一种不同的做法将能更好地推进美国政府的目标，而不会造成"负面的外溢效应"。 在一次新闻发布会上，IMF总裁Kristalina Georgieva表示，IMF和特朗普政府一样，也对美国贸易和经常 账户赤字的规模感到担忧。 她说，"我们今天与美国财政部长贝森特和美联储主席鲍威尔举行了会晤。会晤进行得很好，内容非常 充实。" 她说，解决外部失衡问题将对美国和全球经济都有利，并补充说，导致这些失衡的政策扭曲应予以消 除。 她表示，"不过，在美国，关税产生了负面的供给效应，这加剧了商品通胀，对实现更强劲增长构成了 阻力。" IMF预计，提高关税将在短期内小幅收窄美国贸易逆差，但到2026年初，个人消费支出价格指数将被推 高约0.5个百分点，产出水平也将下降。 在货币政策方面，该基金表示，随着就业增长放缓，且几乎没有迹象表明关税会产生更广泛的价格压力 等第二轮效应，美联储（The F ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive macroeconomic policy to support economic growth, with the highest fiscal deficit levels in recent years and a significant increase in government bond issuance to boost key sector spending [1][2]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 will feature a deficit rate set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [2]. - The new government debt scale will reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [2]. - National general public budget expenditure is projected to be 287.395 billion yuan, a 1% increase from 2024, while government fund budget expenditure will be 1.129 trillion yuan, up 11.3% [2]. Government Bonds - Government bonds will play a crucial role in expanding investment and addressing shortfalls, with expenditures on special bonds reaching 619 billion yuan, a 37.6% increase from 2024 [3]. - The fiscal policy will utilize a combination of tools, including increasing the fiscal deficit rate and issuing long-term special bonds to support macroeconomic stability and high-quality development [3]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will see a rapid growth in the total financial volume, with M2 growth significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - By the end of 2025, the RMB loan balance is expected to reach 272 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 7% after adjusting for local debt impacts [3]. - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a package of financial support measures to solidify the economic recovery [2][3]. Support for Domestic Demand - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies aims to boost investment, enhance consumption, and improve livelihoods, with 1.3 trillion yuan allocated for special long-term bonds to support key projects [4]. - The "old-for-new" consumption program is expected to generate sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [4]. Financial Support for Consumption - By the end of 2025, financial institutions have reported applications for 118.4 billion yuan in re-loans to support consumption and elderly care [5]. - Consumer loans, excluding personal housing loans, are projected to reach 21.2 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [5]. Policy Integration - In early 2026, the continued issuance of long-term special bonds will support consumption and equipment upgrades, injecting strong momentum into the economy [6]. - The macroeconomic policies will focus on promoting domestic demand through coordinated fiscal and monetary measures [8]. Future Outlook - The central economic work conference has confirmed the continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, emphasizing precision and effectiveness in policy implementation [7]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policies and stimulate domestic demand [8].