关于盘活存量政策，粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，重点在于挖掘沉淀资源、提升政策传导效率。 具体措施包括利用REITs(不动产投资信托基金)等工具让"沉睡"资产产生现金流，腾挪财政空间；引导 金融资源精准投向科技创新与绿色发展；整合优化各类产业补贴与扶持基金，避免"撒胡椒面"等。 增量政策"增"在何处？渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽表示，在财政增量政策方面，预计会 延续债务置换工作，将更多资金投入解决地方政府隐性债务问题。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工作要继续实施更加积极的财政政 策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提 升宏观经济治理效能。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对中新社表示，明年中国财政政策和货币政策整体方向保持不变，意味着稳 增长仍是核心目标。财政政策将继续保持较强力度，以支持扩大需求和结构优化；货币政策保持适度宽 松，为经济运行提供低成本资金环境。 值得注意的是，"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"为今年新增表述。 "政策思路是'存量在先，增量在后'，已出台的存量政策重落实，未来的增量政策将保持和存量政策 ...

中新社北京12月11日电 (陶思阅)中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工 作要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆 周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 更关键的是，存量政策与增量政策要发挥集成效应。明明认为，需要重点关注财政政策与货币政策的协 调方式。财政政策方面，应关注财政支出结构、赤字安排、专项债发行节奏、中央财政对地方的支持力 度、政策性金融工具的投放方式等。货币政策方面，应关注流动性投放节奏、政策利率调整、结构性工 具投放、货币市场利率引导以及金融机构信贷行为。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉说，二者协同的逻辑，是财政扮演需求创造的"牵引力"，货币提供环境稳定 的"润滑剂"，共同服务于巩固经济回升向好这一根本目标。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对中新社表示，明年中国财政政策和货币政策整体方向保持不变，意味着稳 增长仍是核心目标。财政政策将继续保持较强力度，以支持扩大需求和结构优化；货币政策保持适度宽 松，为经济运行提供低成本资金环境。 从全球来看，"主要经济体的周期节奏不一致，多个经济体高利率叠加高债务，财政政策与货 ...

持续扩大内需和优化供给需要更加积极有为的宏观政策予以支撑。会议指出将继续实施更加积 极的财政政策。在财政资金使用上，需把"投资于物和投资于人"紧密结合在一起。"投资于 物"意味着加强重点领域财力保障，全力支持高水平科技自立自强、建设现代化产业体系、推 动经济社会发展全面绿色转型等。"投资于人"则聚焦加强民生保障，财税资源将优先保障教 育、社会保障等基本公共服务，加大对普惠养老和育儿支持体系的财政补贴与税收激励力度。 会议提出实施适度宽松的货币政策。维持宽松的货币环境，能够切实降低实体经济特别是企业 的融资成本，提振经营和投资信心，为经济持续回升向好提供稳定的金融环境。为了保持流动 性合理充裕，降低社会融资成本，预计可能实施降准、降息，重点在于加大逆周期与跨周期调 节力度，并且或将更加注重精准滴灌，通过结构性工具将资金引向科技创新、绿色发展、普惠 小微等重点领域。 综合来看，为更好地实现稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期的目标，财政政策需与货币政策紧 密协同，确保形成合力，共同服务于"十五五"开好局的大目标，同时也需为培育新质生产力、 实现中长期高质量发展预留空间和创造条件。总量上，财政的扩大支出与货币的流通性投放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the construction of a scientific and stable monetary policy system to support high-quality economic development, focusing on the balance of short-term and long-term goals, the health of the financial sector, and internal and external relationships [1][2]. Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank will adopt a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools such as reverse repos and MLF operations to optimize liquidity and support key sectors [2][3]. - There is an expectation for a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, with potential further reductions in the following year [2]. Interest Rate and Financing Costs - The monetary policy will focus on price-type regulation of policy interest rates to lower financing costs for enterprises and households, which is crucial for stimulating consumption and investment [3]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating improved transmission of monetary policy [3]. Communication and Coordination - Enhanced communication with the market is vital for stabilizing expectations and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, with more frequent updates and guidance from the central bank [4]. - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to strengthen, with a focus on supporting major projects through combined efforts of fiscal capital and monetary financing tools [4][5].

Group 1: Market Overview - In the second week of September, major indices in the A-share market rose again, with the CSI 100 and CSI 500 indices increasing by 4.45% and 6.33% respectively, while the Shenzhen Component Index rebounded by 2.36% [1] - Southbound capital inflow exceeded 55 billion yuan in the second week of September [1] - The central bank's net fund injection was 196.1 billion yuan last week, maintaining ample liquidity with the DR007 rate staying below 1.48% [2] Group 2: Commodity and Currency Trends - In the second week of September, non-ferrous metals rebounded, crude oil prices increased, precious metals saw a slight rebound, while black metals declined and pork prices experienced a minor increase [2] - The US dollar index fell to 97.62, down 0.12% week-on-week, while the Chinese yuan appreciated slightly to 7.12, with a weekly increase of 0.04% [2] Group 3: Agricultural Bank Insights - Agricultural Bank is expected to benefit from the release of county-level economic potential and deep layout in these regions, leading to greater credit growth compared to peers [4] - The bank has the highest proportion of personal demand deposits among comparable peers, resulting in lower deposit costs and stronger interest margin resilience [4] - Agricultural Bank maintains the lowest non-performing loan ratio among peers, with manageable risks in real estate-related businesses [4] - The bank's high provisioning strengthens its risk absorption and profit reinvestment capabilities, leading to a positive outlook for valuation enhancement [4] Group 4: Unmanned Forklift Industry - The evolution from AGV to AMR technology is driving a transformation in logistics automation, with average prices decreasing significantly due to supply chain maturity and the rise of domestic components [7] - The market for unmanned forklifts in China is projected to grow from 2,700 units in 2019 (0.44% penetration) to 19,500 units in 2023 (1.66% penetration), and is expected to reach 39,000 units by 2025 (3.17% penetration) [7] - The Chinese market size for unmanned forklifts is estimated at $2.385 billion in 2023, accounting for 45% of the global market, with Asia representing 47% [7] - Major companies, including Linde and Geek+, are driving industry upgrades, with Geek+ achieving the highest market share in global warehouse robotics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market expectations for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to resume government bond trading operations are increasing as discussions between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC have intensified, indicating a potential restart by the end of this year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Coordination - Since the establishment of the joint working group between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC, there has been a strengthening of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, with the PBOC's government bond trading operations being a significant aspect of this [1][2]. - The PBOC plans to net purchase government bonds worth 1 trillion yuan in August 2024, followed by 2 trillion yuan in September, October, and November, and 3 trillion yuan in December, totaling 1 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance, providing a favorable environment for government bond issuance and maintaining market liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Market Environment - The current bond market conditions, including a recent rise in the 10-year government bond yield to approximately 1.8%, suggest that the PBOC may resume bond trading operations in the fourth quarter of this year [3][4]. - The PBOC's bond buying operations are seen as a tool for liquidity management and are expected to help stabilize the bond market and encourage financial institutions to increase credit issuance [3][4]. - The second meeting of the joint working group has broadened its focus to include various topics related to fiscal and monetary policy coordination, which is crucial for addressing the complex market environment and promoting economic recovery [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth and address insufficient domestic demand, marking a significant adjustment in China's fiscal policy since 2008 [2][3][9] - The fiscal policy will see an increase in the deficit rate to around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds, along with 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds [3][5][9] - The proactive fiscal policy aims to enhance confidence among business entities, provide strong financial support for expanding domestic demand, and effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas [2][10][11] Group 2 - The proactive fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in driving economic recovery by expanding domestic demand and stabilizing confidence, thus addressing economic circulation bottlenecks [9][10] - It will focus on supporting the construction of the livelihood sector and major national strategies, optimizing expenditure structures to enhance public service quality and alleviate pressures on residents [11][12][22] - The government aims to strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic stability and resilience [4][13][23] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of addressing structural challenges and external pressures while implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, emphasizing the need for effective resource allocation and risk prevention [14][19][20] - It highlights the necessity of balancing economic construction spending with livelihood spending to ensure social harmony and improve living standards [20][21] - The government is encouraged to deepen fiscal and tax system reforms to support high-quality development and mitigate risks in key areas [23][24]

Group 1 - The meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery in a complex market environment [1][2] - The shift from a "single tool" approach to a "multi-policy collaboration" indicates a more synchronized rhythm, direction, and intensity of fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The meeting highlights the importance of the joint working group mechanism in enhancing cooperation and ensuring effective implementation of policies [2] Group 2 - From August to December 2024, the PBOC conducted net purchases of government bonds totaling 1 trillion yuan, providing crucial support for market liquidity [3] - The PBOC announced a temporary suspension of government bond purchases starting January 2025, with plans to resume based on market conditions [3] - The cost of issuing government bonds has increased, with the weighted average issuance rate for coupon bonds rising by 5 basis points to approximately 1.7% in August 2025 compared to July [3] Group 3 - The probability of the PBOC restarting government bond purchases within the year is considered high, with expectations for implementation in the fourth quarter [4] - Restarting government bond purchases is expected to release medium- to long-term liquidity, alleviating funding pressures in the banking system [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract's futures price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.06% with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, both supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals have not improved, inventory has continued to increase, and steel prices are under pressure. With the relatively positive peak - season expectation and rising costs, steel prices will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract's futures price fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.24% with increasing volume and open interest. At present, production has decreased due to production restrictions, but it can recover quickly. On the contrary, demand resilience is weakening, and the contradiction in the hot - rolled coil industry is accumulating. Inventory growth has expanded, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the peak - season expectation and cost situation, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract's futures price rose strongly, recording a daily increase of 1.67% with increasing volume and open interest. Currently, iron ore demand is declining while supply is increasing. The fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken, and high - valued ore prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the peak - season expectation and support from variety arbitrage funds. Ore prices will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel price performance [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second group leader meeting to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [6]. - The personal mortgage loans of the six major state - owned banks shrank by 10.78 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, and the early repayment wave has eased compared with last year. Some banks no longer focus on mortgage business [7]. - Brazil imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese tin - plated and chrome - plated steel coils, with the duty ranging from 284.34 to 499.35 US dollars per ton [8]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,200 yuan, with a national average of 3,280 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,350 yuan and 3,290 yuan respectively, with a national average of 3,419 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,960 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,070 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference is 150 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference is 1,130 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 785 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is also 785 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.06 yuan, and from Brazil is 24.29 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) is 103.34 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) is 103.60 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract is 3,117 yuan, with a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume is 1,231,326 lots, an increase of 62,178 lots, and the open interest is 1,736,432 lots, a decrease of 18,381 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract is 3,313 yuan, with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume is 509,314 lots, an increase of 138,698 lots, and the open interest is 1,283,425 lots, an increase of 34,343 lots [13]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract is 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 1.67%. The trading volume is 392,627 lots, an increase of 103,429 lots, and the open interest is 506,983 lots, an increase of 41,053 lots [13]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes, total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][18][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, seasonal inventory, inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [21][25][27]. - **Steel mill production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the profitability of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills, and the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills [31][33][34]. 5. Future Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the weekly output has decreased by 1.88 tons. Demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand has slightly decreased. With unchanged fundamentals and increasing inventory, steel prices will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. During the parade, production was restricted, and the weekly output decreased by 10.50 tons. Demand has also declined, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 15.36 tons. The short - term trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - **Iron ore**: Both supply and demand are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is expected to decline. At the same time, domestic port arrivals are increasing, and overseas supply is high. Ore prices are prone to pressure and will maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to steel price performance [37].

Hot News - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second group leader meeting, aiming to continue promoting the stable and healthy development of China's bond market and ensuring the effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policies [1] - In August, RatingDog's China Services PMI reached 53, the highest since May 2024, with seasonal performance better than last year's 51.6 and the annual average [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes one rate cut this year is appropriate, but it may change based on inflation and employment [1] - Shandong coke producers resumed production on September 3 after a 30%-50% production cut from August 16 to September 3, with the current overall开工 rate at 68.61%, down 7.53% from the previous period [1] - From August 1-31, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.079 million, a 5% year-on-year increase and a 9% month-on-month increase, with a retail penetration rate of 55.3%. Cumulative retail sales this year reached 7.535 million, a 25% year-on-year increase. Wholesale sales reached 1.292 million, a 23% year-on-year increase and a 9% month-on-month increase, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.6%. Cumulative wholesale sales this year reached 8.926 million, a 33% year-on-year increase [2] Key Focus - The report highlights coking coal, p-xylene, Shanghai silver, crude oil, and Shanghai gold as key areas of focus [3] Night Market Performance - The night market performance shows the following sectoral changes: Non-metallic building materials rose 2.72%, precious metals 29.41%, oilseeds and fats 10.78%, non-ferrous metals 21.49%, soft commodities 2.42%, coal, coke, and steel 14.28%, energy 2.87%, chemicals 12.01%, grains 1.10%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.93% [3] Sectoral Positions - The report presents the five-day change in commodity futures sector positions, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel, Wind non-ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and fats, Wind precious metals, and Wind non-metallic building materials [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity markets: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, the SSE 50 fell 1.07%, the CSI 300 fell 0.68%, the CSI 500 fell 1.34%, the S&P 500 rose 0.51%, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.60%, the German DAX rose 0.46%, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.88%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.67% [5] - Fixed-income markets: The 10-year Treasury futures rose 0.21%, the 5-year Treasury futures rose 0.17%, and the 2-year Treasury futures rose 0.04% [5] - Commodity markets: The CRB Commodity Index fell 0.56%, WTI crude oil fell 2.74%, London spot gold rose 0.74%, LME copper fell 0.05%, and the Wind Commodity Index rose 1.30% [5] - Other markets: The US Dollar Index fell 0.17%, and the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged [5]