Overall Key Points - The report analyzes the overnight performance and future trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives [2][3][4] Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% increase in inventory in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory accumulation of upstream crude oil is concentrated in the transit link. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations, and the suspension of production increase in the first quarter of next year reflects the organization's management of the downward risk. However, according to the current production increase path, the market supply-demand surplus in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year still faces marginal expansion. Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of the short-selling portfolio after the geopolitical risk is priced again [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The medium-term supply pattern of high-sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the previous high valuation faces correction pressure. The low-sulfur market has received short-term support, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten. The price difference between high and low sulfur is expected to further widen [22] Asphalt - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil and shut down, and the weekly output decreased. The construction in the north is gradually declining, and the construction in the northeast and northwest has gradually stopped under the influence of low temperatures. The south still has the demand for rush construction. Since late October, the year-on-year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has shown a negative growth for the first time, and it is likely to continue the trend of negative year-on-year growth in the future. The decline of the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year-on-year for the first time at the end of October [23] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG contract continued to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased slightly, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the increase of demand, and the cooling in many places has driven the improvement of combustion demand. The market expects the overall demand to improve. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio increased. The marginal improvement of the fundamental expectation still supports LPG [24] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was slightly lower than expected and the previous value. Recently, many Fed officials have spoken out against a rate cut in December, reflecting internal differences. The US government shutdown is still in the game stage, and the non-farm payroll data this week may not be released. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have built a high-level shock platform. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell in late trading. The market is evaluating the copper consumption at the end of the year. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for the eighth consecutive month, and the high copper price in China has suppressed demand. However, compared with the second quarter of last year, the spot side has improved its passive adaptability in the environment of "weak supply and demand". At the same time, the domestic social inventory has accumulated to more than 200,000 tons, and there is still a certain space from the critical point of the lagging reflection of supply and demand. After the short-term copper price reached a high, there is a certain risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the support toughness of the MA20 moving average. Some long positions can be held based on the key moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 million tons compared with Thursday. Since October, the domestic inventory and spot performance have been average, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year-on-year. The macro sentiment dominates, and the resonance of the aluminum market fundamentals is limited. In the short term, it fluctuates strongly towards the high point in November 2024, but the upward space is cautiously viewed for the time being [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open, the LME zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 161,700 tons. The divergence of the inventory between the domestic and foreign markets has temporarily stopped, and the cross-market arbitrage funds have the demand to take profits. The domestic mine TC continues to decline to 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported mine TC also declines synchronously. The short-term rebound momentum of SHFE zinc is relatively strong. Short-term long positions can be participated, and the high rebound range is temporarily seen at 23,000-23,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: On Monday, the SMM lead social inventory slightly increased to 30,200 tons, which is generally low. The correction of SHFE lead is not smooth, and the fundamentals are mixed. The funds are more cautious to enter the market. The raw material overlap between recycled lead and primary lead smelters is increasing day by day. Under the background of winter storage, the smelting capacity is surplus, and the shortage of lead concentrate is intensifying. The price of waste batteries remains high and stable, and the cost of SHFE lead is strongly supported. The refined scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 lead is at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. Downstream enterprises tend to purchase low-priced recycled lead, and the trading of electrolytic lead is slightly sluggish. Affected by the game between cost and demand, SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300-17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The weak downstream demand dominates the market. Although there are news of stainless steel mills reducing production, the actual implementation still needs to be observed. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high-nickel pig iron is quoted at 926 yuan per nickel point, and the support brought by the rebound of the upstream price is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the entire nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons. SHFE nickel is running weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated weakly. The tin market lacks clear guidance and mainly follows the rhythm of the copper price. In addition to the interference of the rainy season on the transportation rhythm, the closure of the Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania may also affect the export speed of tin products. The tin price fluctuated at a high level for a long time in October, and the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is generally average, but there is still demand for spot pricing. Last week, the social inventory of SMM and Steel Union continued to flow out slightly. Subjectively, it is recommended to short on rallies or wait for the right-side trading opportunity after a clear break [11] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overnight, the iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, the global shipment volume decreased this period but is still at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, but the Brazilian shipment is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic arrival volume increased significantly this period and reached a new high this year. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly last week, and the profitability of steel mills reached a new low this year, with further production reduction pressure in the future. The progress of the Sino-US trade agreement has alleviated the concern about weak exports, and an important domestic meeting has been held. After the short-term rebound of the iron ore futures, the market tends to realize some benefits. It is expected that the iron ore will fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. There is an expectation of a third round of price increase for coking coal. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Currently, downstream enterprises purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory increased slightly. The purchasing intention of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coke futures are at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The market sentiment declined rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting the environmental protection standards, but most of the coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production. It is judged that the price is difficult to continue to decline. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices generally increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory decreased slightly. As the safety inspection team is about to enter the main coal-producing areas, attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coking coal futures are at a discount to the Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The weekly output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the production remained at a high level. The silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Group 3: Chemicals Polyolefins - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The market is still dragged down by the demand side, and the bearish expectation of market participants remains unchanged. However, the positive impact of the maintenance of the Binzhou PDH unit will provide a window for bargain hunting and is expected to drive propylene to stop falling to a certain extent. For polyethylene, the number of domestic petrochemical maintenance units decreased, and the capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. The demand for greenhouse films and mulch films weakened, and other downstream industries showed no bright spots. The enthusiasm of factories for raw material procurement was dull, and the overall trading volume was limited. For polypropylene, the impact of new capacity and the weakening of unit maintenance intensity are expected to increase the supply pressure. The downstream operating rate is stable, with rigid demand support, but the downstream profit is limited, and the raw material procurement is cautious. The demand is difficult to release continuously, which still suppresses the market [29] Other Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol futures continued to decline significantly at night. The import supply is expected to remain sufficient, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The profits of most downstream products are not good, and the overall support for the methanol market is insufficient. Some coastal MTO units have maintenance plans in the future, and the demand of traditional downstream industries is expected to enter the off-season as the weather gets colder. The situation of high port inventory and high import supply of methanol is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the weak downstream demand further suppresses the market. The inflection point of port inventory has not appeared, and it is necessary to wait for the substantial implementation of supply reduction and demand improvement [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The chemical products fell overall at night, and the price of general benzene fell below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The arrival volume increased and the提货 volume decreased, and the port inventory increased significantly on Monday. The units restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly. The purchasing sentiment for low-price spot goods is good, but there are negative factors such as high import volume and falling demand in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm in the future, and the monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [27] - **Styrene**: The cost support is insufficient, and the improvement of the supply-demand situation is limited. The overall pressure remains. Although new units have been put into operation, the overall supply has still decreased slightly due to the sudden maintenance of individual units. The demand remains stable, and the supply-demand balance continues, but the high inventory structure is difficult to resolve, which keeps the price under pressure [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the cost support weakened. Under the weak reality, PVC is operating at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased, but the industry inventory pressure is still large. The maintenance of some enterprises such as Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Tianye Tianneng Production Area, and Hangjin Technology has ended, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. The domestic demand is stable, and the export is mainly on the sidelines due to the Indian holiday and anti-dumping duties. With weak cost support and high supply and low demand, PVC may operate at a low level. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has become negative again, and the profit has narrowed. Some caustic soda enterprises have slightly raised the price, and it is operating strongly during the day. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory pressure is large. The enterprises' maintenance has recovered, and the supply has increased. The profit of alumina has been compressed, and the operating rate has decreased slightly. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and the replenishment intention is not strong. The non-aluminum demand growth is limited. The supply pressure of caustic soda is high, and the purchasing price of alumina has been lowered again. The downstream demand is average. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level. Further attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine. If the price continues to fall, the caustic soda price may rebound at a low level under the cost support [30] - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA closed with a doji at night, and the center of gravity moved down. The units of Wuhua Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua restarted, and the supply of PX and PTA increased. The supply and demand of PX increased simultaneously, the polyester load was stable, and PTA has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening in the medium term. Under the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, the reverse arbitrage idea is continued. Attention should be paid to the oil price fluctuation [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased slightly, the port arrival forecast increased, and the inventory increased slightly on Monday. The Zhenhai Refining & Chemical unit is planned to restart, and the supply pressure will be further manifested. The ethylene glycol futures fell with increasing volume and open interest. The demand is expected to weaken in the medium term, and the inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The reverse arbitrage is recommended. Attention should be paid to the possibility of unit production reduction after the benefit decline [32] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly at night. The US soybeans are expected to have better sales due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations and continue to be strong. After the preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino-US-Malaysian economic and trade consultations, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, and Sino-US relations may tend to ease. However, as of the time of publication, there is no official policy adjustment. There are already news that China has purchased some US soybeans, but it has not been confirmed through official channels. Currently, the domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the crushing profit has been repaired, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly this week. The atmosphere of Sino-US trade easing is strong, and attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of China's import of US soybeans in the future. According to Jin10 Data, the latest US soybean premium quotation is roughly the same as that of Brazil. A significant reduction in the tariff on US soybeans is needed to resume Sino-US soybean trade. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino-US trade eases [36] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures corrected at night. The new corn in the Northeast continues to be supplied, and the price is stable with a slight

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded this week, trading around $4003 after hitting a low of $3900 on October 6, driven by increased investor risk aversion due to concerns over a potential long-term U.S. government shutdown [1] Market Analysis - The market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold due to fears of a prolonged government shutdown in the U.S. [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated uncertainty regarding a rate cut in December, which has been interpreted as a hawkish signal, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and limiting gold's rebound [1] - A recent trade easing agreement between the U.S. and Asian countries during the APEC meeting has reduced global risk aversion, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Technical Analysis - Gold formed a bullish candlestick pattern, ending a four-day losing streak, which was unexpected given the fundamental pressures from the uncertainty around the December rate cut [2] - The market is currently exhibiting complex emotions, with signs of a potential emotional trading resurgence [2] - The price action suggests a shift to a range-bound trading expectation, with key resistance levels at $4070-$4080 and support around $3980 [4] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy involves focusing on the range between $3980 and $4050/60 for short-term trades, with adjustments based on market movements [4] - Aggressive positions can be taken near $4003, targeting levels around $4020-$4030 [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, indicating internal divisions among officials regarding inflation concerns and the risks of overly accommodative policies [1] - The FOMC minutes suggest that the Fed may end its current asset reduction process by December, with Chairman Powell emphasizing that future policy adjustments will rely more on economic data, downplaying the likelihood of further rate cuts [1] - Market sentiment has turned cautious, with investors awaiting new macroeconomic guidance, as the dollar's short-term strength limits gold's upward momentum [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is consolidating near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating weakened bullish momentum, with key resistance at the $4000 level and potential upward movement to $4058-$4060 if broken [2] - Support for gold is at $3950, with further declines possible to the $3916-$3900 range if this level is breached, and a significant drop below could test the $3850 mark [2] - The interplay between the Fed's policy direction and the delicate balance of US-China relations may lead to continued high-level fluctuations in gold prices, with upcoming US CPI data and Treasury Secretary speeches being critical for future monetary policy signals [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the optimistic signals from U.S. President Trump regarding trade negotiations with China, which alleviates market concerns about the upcoming trade ceasefire deadline [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary revealed that China will delay new rare earth export controls for a year and has committed to significant purchases of U.S. soybeans, reducing the risk of increased tariffs on Chinese goods [2] - Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold, with a survey indicating an increase in the average gold price forecast for 2025 from $3220 to $3400, and for 2026 to $4275, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and strong central bank demand [2][3] Group 2 - Despite recent adjustments in the gold market, global known gold ETF holdings decreased to 98.19 million ounces as of October 24, ending an eight-week inflow streak, but still remain near a three-year high with a year-to-date increase of 15.62% [3] - The current gold market is dominated by bearish sentiment, with technical indicators showing a clear downtrend, as prices have broken below key moving averages [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified between $3900 and $3890, with a potential drop to the psychological level of $3800 if these levels are breached [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. and China have reached a preliminary consensus on a trade framework, including a temporary pause on rare earth export controls, providing a more stable negotiation basis for upcoming leader meetings [1] - Market expectations suggest that some tariffs and restrictions may ease, leading to a rise in risk assets such as stocks and crude oil [1] - The U.S. September CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, indicating a continued trend of slowing inflation, which enhances expectations for a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve in its October meeting [1] Group 2 - The market is shifting focus towards central bank actions, with upcoming meetings from the Federal Reserve and other central banks expected to influence the direction of the dollar and global assets [1] - If Fed Chair Powell hints at a faster easing path, the dollar may continue to decline, while a contrary signal could trigger adjustments in risk assets [1] - Gold prices have retreated from recent highs due to reduced safe-haven demand and profit-taking by some bulls, with spot gold dropping to around $4,072, nearly 1.2% lower than last week's peak [1] Group 3 - The dollar index remains volatile, with the USD/JPY breaking the 153 mark, indicating a recovery in risk appetite that pressures the yen [2] - The Canadian central bank's upcoming meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25%, limiting the rebound potential of the Canadian dollar [2] - U.S. stock futures have risen by approximately 0.6%-1.1% in early European trading, driven by optimism from trade developments and rate cut expectations, suggesting further upside potential for the stock market [2] Group 4 - The market has transitioned from being driven by trade news to a phase of policy and capital dynamics, where the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's decisions and subsequent macro data will determine the sustainability of market trends [3] - Investors are advised to remain flexible in a high-volatility environment, closely monitoring capital flows and volatility changes to seize trading opportunities arising from shifts in market sentiment [3]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent's December contract rising 7.09%. Short - term crude oil is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the rebound height is limited [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver continued to fluctuate and adjust. The market maintains the expectation of two more interest rate cuts this year. Precious metals are in a high - level shock phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Copper - Both domestic and foreign copper prices continued to rise. Copper has the potential to hit a record high, but high prices are affecting domestic consumption. It is advisable to trade on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum was volatile and slightly stronger on Friday. Although it is breaking through the previous high and showing a strong - side shock, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the upside space should be viewed with caution [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,700 yuan. It continues to follow the aluminum price and is unlikely to have an independent market for now [5] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the industry inventory is rising. It is mainly in a weak operation [6] Zinc - LME zinc rebounded to the $3,000 integer mark. The domestic and foreign fundamentals are different, and the short - term rebound height of Shanghai zinc is determined by zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption [7] Lead - The domestic lead market has tight supply. After the lead price rises, downstream purchasing sentiment drops. Further upward movement requires the joint drive of inventory and funds [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in a low - level shock. The downstream demand recovery is limited during the peak consumption season, and the overall price of the nickel industry chain may be dragged down [9] Tin - The price of tin fluctuated and declined last Friday night. Pay attention to the supply rhythm after the maintenance and shipment of leading smelters, and wait for the entry opportunity [10] Carbonate Lithium - The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading warmed up. Technically, it is strengthening in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 80,000 yuan [11] Industrial Silicon - In November, the power price in the southwest production area is rising, and production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan are highly likely. The short - term spot price is under pressure, and the futures market is expected to remain volatile [12] Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The market is mainly driven by policy expectations and maintains a volatile trend [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was volatile last week. Supply is strong, and demand has a downward pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile [15] Coke - The coke price rose during the day. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the steel profit is average. The coke price may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rose during the day. Affected by factors such as political instability in Mongolia and safety inspections, the price may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [17] Manganese Silicon - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The demand is good, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18] Silicon Iron - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The overall demand is okay, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19] Group 2: Building Materials and Chemicals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel prices strengthened on Friday night. Demand is picking up, but the overall domestic demand is still weak. The futures market is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term [14] Asphalt - BU continued to rise. The supply and demand both decreased this week, and the market is in a tight - balance pattern. The rising cost helps to consolidate the upward trend [21] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The external price stabilized and rebounded. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the strengthening of crude oil has boosted LPG [22] Urea - The demand for urea in agriculture has increased, and the supply has decreased slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range [23] Methanol - The port inventory has increased slightly. In the short term, it may fluctuate within a range, and in the long - term, it may be volatile and slightly stronger [24] Pure Benzene - The price of benzene rebounded last week. Supply and demand both decreased. In the medium - term, high imports are the main pressure [25] PVC and Caustic Soda - The inventory accumulation of PVC has slowed down, and it may operate in the bottom - range. Caustic soda may operate at a low level within a range [26] PX and PTA - PX and PTA follow the oil price trend. The terminal situation is improving, but if the oil price weakens, PTA may face inventory accumulation [27] Ethylene Glycol - Domestic production has decreased, but the output has increased. In the short - term, the negative factors in the fundamentals have eased, and in the medium - term, inventory accumulation is expected [28] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory again. The demand for bottle chips has weakened seasonally, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [29] Glass - The glass spot price continued to decline. The industry is still accumulating inventory. The decline range is expected to be limited, and attention can be paid to selling out - of - the - money put options [30] 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand is slowly recovering, the supply pressure is large, and the strategy is to rebound from oversold conditions [31] Soda Ash - Soda ash is operating in a low - level range. It is advisable to be cautious when the price is near the cost and prefer to short at high levels after a rebound [32] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The overall soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem. If Sino - US trade relations deteriorate, the supply in the first quarter of next year may be tight. It is recommended to wait and see and look for long - entry opportunities [33] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - In the short - term, be cautious about the callback of palm oil prices and the adjustment risk of the oil - meal ratio. In the long - term, it is advisable to allocate vegetable oils on dips [34] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The main contract of rapeseed products is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the cross - competitor strategy with rapeseed products as the short side [35] Domestic Soybeans - The price of domestic soybeans fluctuated. The auction results were good. Pay attention to the impact of the spread between domestic and imported soybeans and policy guidance [36] Corn - Corn futures were weakly volatile on Friday night. The supply is loose, and Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [37] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounded over the weekend. Although there is still supply pressure, consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. After the rebound, it is advisable to short on rallies [38] Eggs - Egg futures rebounded. In the short - term, pay attention to risk avoidance, and in the medium - term, there may still be a decline [39] Cotton - US cotton is expected to have weak demand. Domestic cotton futures rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [40] Sugar - US sugar is oscillating. The international sugar supply is sufficient. The domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate [41] Apples - Apple futures are strongly operating. The market focuses on the cold - storage inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [42] Wood - Wood futures are oscillating. The supply and demand situation has improved, and it is advisable to maintain a long - biased thinking [43] Pulp - Pulp rebounded last week. The port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see [44] Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market rose, and the futures index contracts all closed up. The market style should focus on the technology - growth sector [45] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve steepening is expected to end for now [46]

Government Shutdown Implications - The current government shutdown lacks a clear catalyst for resolution, unlike previous instances where debt ceiling negotiations prompted reopening [2][4][5] - Political comfort among both parties is noted, with Republicans and Democrats seemingly content to maintain the shutdown for strategic messaging [3][6][9] - The expectation is that the government may remain closed until at least November, with potential risks extending to Christmas [4][10] Economic Impact - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to significant economic consequences, including a potential reduction of one percentage point in GDP if the shutdown lasts until November [14] - The absence of government data collection during the shutdown is expected to create challenges for economic analysis and decision-making [14][15] - Impaired government services may lead to public dissatisfaction with both political parties, as delays in services like mortgage loans become more apparent [8][9] Healthcare Policy Focus - The shutdown is intertwined with discussions around enhanced Obamacare subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the year, making healthcare a pivotal issue for voters [12][13] - President Trump is viewed as a potential wildcard in negotiations, with the possibility of pivoting towards a deal on healthcare [10][11] U.S.-China Relations - The anticipated meeting between President Xi and President Trump is expected to yield a detente rather than a comprehensive trade deal, reflecting a shift in diplomatic dynamics [17][19] - There is a risk of deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China, which could lead to increased tariffs and export controls, particularly in advanced technology and rare earths [20]

Group 1 - The core reason for the recent surge in U.S. Chinese concept stocks is attributed to two main factors: the cancellation of tariffs by Canada on the U.S. and signals of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The announcement from Canada has sparked a global sentiment of trade easing, which has positively influenced investor confidence [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a shift in stance towards interest rate cuts due to employment risks, leading to a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September from over 70% to 91% [1] Group 2 - Following these developments, U.S. stock markets experienced a strong rally, with an average increase of 1% to 2%, while Chinese concept stocks saw a notable rise of 2.43% [1] - The positive sentiment from these events is expected to benefit the A-share market, potentially leading to a strong upward trend in the coming week [1] - The current market conditions suggest that investors should maintain their positions and anticipate further increases [1]

Core Points - The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the suspension of 24% tariffs for an additional 90 days, which is seen as a crucial step for businesses to plan their investments and supply chains [1][2] - The decision follows discussions between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, indicating a potential path for future negotiations [2][6] - The extension is welcomed by U.S. businesses, as it provides more time to address trade disputes and aims to reduce uncertainties in long-term planning [2][4] Group 1: Tariff Suspension - The U.S. has announced a 90-day extension of the suspension of tariffs on Chinese goods, maintaining the existing agreement terms [1][2] - The new deadline for tariff negotiations is set for November 10, allowing both countries to address their trade differences [2][6] - The extension is viewed as a strategic move to prevent significant tariff increases that could adversely affect both economies [2][4] Group 2: Business Reactions - The U.S.-China Trade National Committee expressed that the extension is vital for American companies operating in China, providing them with more certainty for their investment strategies [2][4] - High-ranking officials from U.S. companies have indicated that the delay in tariff implementation is crucial for negotiating trade issues and ensuring stable supply chains [2][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts have noted that tariffs have already increased consumer prices in the U.S., with a significant portion of the tariff costs being absorbed by consumers [4][5] - The current average tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 18.6%, the highest level since 1933, indicating a shift towards protectionism [5][6] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the limitations of unilateral pressure tactics, as both countries navigate their interdependence [6][7] Group 4: Future Negotiations - Future negotiations may focus on specific sectors, with expectations that a comprehensive agreement may be challenging to achieve in the short term [8][9] - The potential for targeted tariff exemptions or additional tariffs in specific areas remains a possibility as both sides seek to find common ground [8][9] - The U.S. government is also exploring non-tariff issues in negotiations, which could lead to new dynamics in trade policy [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to the sentiment of trade relaxation, US soybeans are strong while Dalian soybean meal is weak, and the soybean No.1 futures contract shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Trump urged China to increase US soybean purchases by 300%, and extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days, which boosted the soybean market. Meanwhile, concerns about dry weather in the US Midwest and the adjustment of positions before the USDA supply - demand report also influenced the market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 4067 yuan/ton during the day session, down 26 yuan (-0.64%), and 4047 yuan/ton at night, down 16 yuan (-0.39%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3072 yuan/ton during the day, down 16 yuan (-0.52%), and 3064 yuan/ton at night, down 5 yuan (-0.16%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1010.25 cents/bu, up 23.75 cents (+2.41%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 289.9 dollars/short ton, up 4.9 dollars (+1.72%) [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 2970 - 3000 yuan/ton, flat to +10 yuan compared to the previous day. The basis had various levels and remained stable. In East China, the spot price of soybean meal in Taizhou Huifu was 2920 yuan/ton, flat. In South China, the spot price was 2970 - 3000 yuan/ton, flat to +10 yuan, and the basis also had different levels and remained stable [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.2 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 4.75 million tons per day on the day before. The inventory data was not available on the previous trading day, while it was 97.76 million tons per week on the day before [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - On August 11, CBOT soybean futures closed sharply higher, hitting a two - week high. Trump urged China to increase US soybean purchases by 300%, and extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days. Concerns about dry weather in the US Midwest and position adjustment before the USDA supply - demand report also affected the market. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 10 was 68%, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, in line with market expectations [3]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main futures contracts during the day session on the report day [3].