以下文章来源于围棋投研 ，作者伟琪 围棋投研 . 业内人士，重点覆盖高端制造 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 围棋投研 来源：雪球 又是一月一度的内部投研会 ， 尤其1月份是新年伊始 ， 小伙伴们各自准备好年度观点 ， 市场部小姐姐帮忙安排好咖啡 ， 一场 " 旷日持久 " 的头 脑风暴就此开始 。 晚上静下心来 ， 再次回顾了会议核心内容 ， 我觉得有些内容或许值得分享 。 首先 ， 要判断2026年资本市场的趋势 。 我想球友们应该都能认可 ， 在上证突破4000点且成交量站上3.6万亿之后 ， 无疑是进入了牛市 。 但作为机构投资者 ， 还是要再看看其他维度的 验证 。 A股的价值到底在哪里 ？ 第一 ， 利率 。 现在十年期国债收益率才1.9% ， 而沪深300的股息率都有2.5% 。 什么概念 ？ 就是说买股票光拿分红 ， 都比借钱给国家划算 。 这在金融学上就叫作资产荒 。 资金是逐利的 ， 早晚得往高收益的地方流 。 第二 ， 资金溢出 。 过去二十年 ， 钱都去哪了 ？ 要么是买房子 ， 要么是 ...

| 有国贸期货 | 十度市临参考 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026/ | | | | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 昨日股指震荡运行,市场显著缩量,但仍处于接近3万亿的较高水 | 自周四政策层面宣布调低融资杠杆后,市场投机情绪有所降 | 本。 | | | | | 盘后央行召开新闻发布会,宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工 | 具利率0.25个百分点,增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元,增设 | 股指 | 三名 | 民营企业再贷款,进一步小幅放宽资金面,提高对重点领域的扶 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | 持。短期来看,股指经历了放量突破后,在震荡调整后有望继续 | 上行。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | | | | | | | | | 震荡 | 国债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | 下游需求相对承压,短期随着市场情绪降温,铜价高位回落。 | 震荡 | 30 | | | | ...

监管与市场都在探寻一种协同治理、相互助推的模式，而这将有助于市场行稳致远。 投资者信心比黄金还重要。 14日午间，经证监会批准，沪深北三家交易所发布通知，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比 例从80%提高至100%，旨在通过逆周期调节降低市场杠杆水平，切实保护投资者合法权益，促进市场 长期稳定健康发展。14日、15日A股主要股指相继出现回调。 那么究竟是什么在推热当下市场？ 诸多迹象指向的是投资者本金，大概率2026年中国财富市场和投资者资产配置将迎来一场显著的重构和 重置。这是因为随着市场真实利率日益趋低，尤其是大量高收益的存款和固收资产在今年集中到期，有 许多资金要寻找出口，重新平衡风险收益和风险偏好，风险投资的信念将在今年或积极主动或消极主动 地被人们所接纳。 同时，当下资产荒问题依然没有得到有效舒缓和改善，投资者将面临日益突出的金融压抑问题。这种资 金端与资产端的匹配性问题，给今年的权益市场带来极大机会的同时，也正改变着权益市场的投资生 态。 随着大量消极主动的避险型投资者进入权益市场，国内资本市场将出现明显的变化，即整体上随着大量 避险型投资者进入权益市场寻求财富保值，会抬高整个市场的风险偏好 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸易所 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号:Z0017779 2026/1/15 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.39 | 0.07 | DR007 | 1.57 | 1.94 | | ह | GC001 | 1.52 | 5.00 | GC007 | 1.58 | 1.50 | | 市 | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.27 | 0.77 | 5年期国债 | 1.63 | -0.75 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.85 | -0.74 | 10年期美债 | 4.18 | -1.00 | | | | For a time and and the may of the ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Coke, Coal [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Cautious: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Wait - and - See: Polysilicon [1] Core Views - The stock index may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment, and the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina prices will fluctuate. Zinc and nickel prices have uncertainties due to policies and fundamentals, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - The prices of lithium carbonate, rebar, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, showing a state of shock or limited upward space [1]. - The prices of agricultural products such as palm oil, cotton, and sugar are affected by supply - demand relationships and market news, with different trends [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand, and cost, and different products have different trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index and Bond Futures - Stock Index: After a volume - based breakthrough, it may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment as the market trading volume remains high [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With improved market sentiment and tight ore supply, copper prices are expected to remain strong [1]. - Aluminum: Limited industrial drive, but restricted supply and improved macro - sentiment are expected to drive prices higher [1]. - Alumina: There is a large release space on the supply side, but the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Zinc: The cost center is stable, but there is inventory pressure. Although the price has made up for losses due to good macro - sentiment, the upside space is limited [1]. - Nickel: The market's concern about supply has decreased, but policy implementation is uncertain. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw - material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: The price has risen due to good macro - sentiment and supply disturbances, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and long - term low - position buying is recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks, the Fed's independence crisis, and lower - than - expected CPI have boosted prices, but the price fluctuations are large [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The macro - environment is favorable, but the fundamentals are not as solid as precious metals. In the short term, they will fluctuate widely, and long - term low - position buying of platinum is recommended [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while southwest production is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the traditional peak season of new - energy vehicles, the demand for energy storage is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the price is in shock [1]. - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and supply may be disturbed by energy - consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The short - term market sentiment is warming, but the medium - term supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: After the release of the MPOB report, wait for the opportunity to buy when the origin reduces production and inventory and the biodiesel story unfolds. Short - term waiting is recommended [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a state of "with support but no driving force". Future factors such as policies, planting intentions, and weather should be concerned [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: The selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the USDA report, the internal market is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the soybean auction [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1]. - Fuel Oil and Bitumen: They follow the trend of crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - PTA and Short Fiber: The PX market has risen, and domestic PTA maintains high - level operation. The short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - Styrene: The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, but the cost support is strong, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices [1]. - PVC: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the market will trade based on fundamentals. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is at a low level [1]. - LPG: The import cost is supported, and the risk premium has increased. The inventory is expected to decrease, and the downstream demand is expected to increase [1]. Others - Container Shipping on the European Route: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

债 债券周报 券 。 2026-1-12 [ [Table_Title] 公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，市场成交保持活跃 公募 REITs 周报（2026.1.5-2026.1.11） 相关研究报告： [Table_ReportInfo] 《公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，国泰 海通东久新经济 REIT 扩募份额上 市》--2025-12-28 《公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，华夏 安博仓储 REIT 成功上市》--2025- 12-23 《公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，华夏 中核清洁能源 REIT 获准予注册》- -2025-12-15 证券分析师： [Table_Author] 徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao @tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 [Table 报告摘要_Summary] 一、二级市场：本周公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨 本周公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，REITs 市场成交额增加 ...

| CTEEHIN | ■度 ** | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 20 | | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品神 | 股指上周强势放量突破,市场资金充裕,新一轮上行空间打开, | 多头趋势延续,加上近期宏观基本面数据总体呈现正反馈,12月 | | | 股指 | 制造业PMI超预期重回扩张区间、通胀数据温和回升,资金面与基 | 7/5 A. 37 M. 37 M. 5 | 本面助推下, 股指短期预计维持上行格局。 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 農汤 | 国债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | 近期铜价高位回落,但矿端扰动犹存,预计铜价有望企稳回升。 | | | | 원미 | 近期产业驱动有限,但电解铝供应端受限,价格有望偏强运行。 | 看头 | | | | | | 氧化铝供应端仍有较大释放空间,产业面偏弱施压价格,但当前 | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 价格基本处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。 | 锌基本面成本中枢趋稳,库 ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 研究结论 | 权益推动下转债突破前高，估值冲高回 | 2025-12-30 | | --- | --- | | 落：可转债市场周观察 | | | 债市波动加大：固定收益市场周观察 | 2025-12-23 | | 风格反转，年底或有抢跑可能：可转债市 | 2025-12-23 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 12 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | ...

REITs 2026 年 01 月 11 日 消费 REITs 单周表现优异，发行市场保持活跃 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 消费 REITs 单周表现优异，发行市场保持活跃 2026 年第 2 周，中证 REITs（收盘）指数为 793.05，同比下跌 3.22%，环比上涨 1.86%; 中证 REITs 全收益指数 1028.93，同比上涨 4.17%，环比上涨 1.89%。本 周 REITs 市场交易规模成交量达 8.35 亿份，同比下降 6.39%；成交额达 35.51 亿 元，同比增长 0.68%；区间换手率 3.01%，同比-2.43pct。本周保障房、环保、高 速公路、产业园区、仓储物流、能源、消费类 REITs 一周涨跌幅分别为-0.24%、 +0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market in China is expected to experience a "high-quality development opportunity" in 2026, driven by policy benefits and improved market ecology, balancing "stock activation" and "high-quality development" [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Developments - The public REITs market started 2026 with a strong performance, with several products showing significant weekly gains, such as E Fund Huawai Market REIT leading with a 7.84% increase [4]. - Multiple public REITs products have made progress, including the acceptance of China Aviation Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT by the CSRC and updates on other REITs' statuses [4]. - By the end of 2025, the public REITs market had 79 products with a total issuance scale exceeding 210 billion yuan, making it the largest REITs market in Asia and the second largest globally [5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The macroeconomic recovery and expectations of declining interest rates are expected to enhance the attractiveness of REITs as high-dividend assets for long-term funds like insurance and social security [5]. - The market is anticipated to show differentiation, with high-quality assets and strong operational capabilities receiving valuation premiums, while single assets facing operational pressures may experience volatility [5]. - New growth points are expected from categories like data centers, cultural tourism, and elderly care, with a normalization of the expansion mechanism allowing REITs to evolve from single projects to asset platforms [5]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - In 2026, three main investment lines are highlighted: 1. Anti-cyclical stable cash flow assets, such as consumer infrastructure and policy-based rental housing, which are less affected by economic cycles [8]. 2. High-prosperity policy-driven assets, like data centers benefiting from the digital economy, and logistics sectors expected to recover as demand increases [8]. 3. Strong expansion asset platforms, where commercial real estate pilot projects may achieve scale effects and enhanced dividends through asset injections [9]. - The REITs market is expected to balance "stock activation" and "high-quality development," with a focus on core consumer assets, new policy-supported assets, and potential assets with improved operational efficiency [9].