| 7 Elittre | 度策略参考 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026 | | | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 短期内,关注中东战事的演变,若战事快速了结,对标2025年6月 | 13日,以色列袭击伊朗核设施。6月24日伊以签订停火协议,伊以 | | | | 冲突结束，股指经历了震荡调整后,市场情绪快速恢复,向上突 | 破打开上行趋势。因此,若本次中东局势未进一步恶化,则股指 | 宏观金融 | 短期的调整将带来较好的多头布局机会。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行示利率风险,近期关注日 | 国 债 | 本央行利率决策。 | 近期宏观利多推升铜价,但全球铜库存持续累库压制价格,预计 | | | | | | 短期铜价震荡偏强运行。 | 近期宏观利好提振有色板块,但国内铝库存大幅累库或拖累铝 | 价,短期铝价震荡偏强运行。 | | | | | | | 国内氧化铝运行产能下降,但库存进一步累库,短期震荡运行。 | ...

随着宏观流动性宽松的基调仍在延续，存款利率的连番下行深刻重塑着国内居民的资产负债表。过去几年里，保本保息的刚兑信仰随宏观周期切换逐渐退 潮，当大额存单利率甚至无法企及部分通胀指标时，海量资金被迫寻找新的栖息地。 这场被称为"存款搬家"的财富大迁徙，构成了当下大资管行业最核心的增量来源。 银行理财子公司作为脱胎于商业银行的财富管理中枢，自然成为了这股巨量资金溢出的第一承接池。 尽管2025年的A股走出了温和的"慢牛"行情、债市则呈现出周期的震荡与波动，但从样本机构的产品结构来看，固收类产品的占比依然呈现出压倒性的绝对 优势。 | 理财公司名称 资产配置金额(亿元) 权益; | | | --- | --- | | 浦银理财 | 15405.35 | | 苏银理财 | 8730.04 | | 杭银理财 | 6628.66 | | 青银理财 | 2090.91 | | 法巴农银理财 | 947.42 | | | 5分期时了,但在上,新城市 | 信风注意到，上述理财子中，法巴农银理财固收类产品占比达100%，青银理财固收占比达99.98%，浦银理财占比达99.91%，杭银理财也维持在99.22%的高 位；资产端，浦银理 ...

新华财经上海2月26日电（记者杨溢仁）2026年以来，可转债市场在权益市场"慢牛"预期与"资产荒"格 局的共振下，迎来了"开门红"。 分析人士认为，春节假期过后，可转债市场有望在资金回流与政策预期的推动下延续强势表现，不过， 高估值与结构分化料成为市场演绎不可忽视的特征。 估值攀高显韧性 2026年以来，可转债市场呈现出"指数走强、估值高企、成交活跃、结构分化"的四大核心特征。 回顾1月份的市场表现，在A股1月迎来"开门红"（上证指数1月14日早盘一度触及4190.87点，创2024年9 月24日启动的本轮行情以来的阶段新高）的大背景下，叠加年初资金配置需求增强，可转债市场迎来 了"正股+估值"的双轮驱动行情，中证转债指数当月涨幅持平万得全A指数，整体表现不俗。 可转债估值方面，根据西部证券测算，1月30日可转债市场的百元溢价率达35.0%，较2025年12月末上 升4.45pp(百分点），处于自2018年、2021年以来，99.5%和99.3%的分位数水平。不同平价——40元、 60元、80元、90元、110元、120元、130元对应的转股溢价率分别为190.4%、106.1%、65.6%、52.6%、 3 ...

"筛选产品时，收益率从高到低排下来，排在前面的也没多高。"深圳投资者钱莫（化名）对比年前年后 的APP截图时感慨道。正如他所观察到的，近期银行理财产品的营销端正在经历一场"降温"。 目前部分银行APP在理财产品收益率展示、业绩比较基准的展示方面已经做出调整，用特别高并且难以 持续的高收益率吸引投资者的做法明显减少。 据第一财经不完全统计，2026年以来已有近10家理财公司下调数百只产品的业绩基准，更有部分机构将 产品业绩比较基准改为指数型或市场利率型。 面对收益下行与合规约束，理财公司正从负债端加码中长期产品锁定资金，从资产端借道公募基金增厚 收益，试图在净值化时代寻找新的破局之道。 业绩比较基准批量调整 一名理财公司人士透露，近期理财子普遍对存量产品的业绩比较基准进行梳理，背后与监管要求密切相 关。近期监管部门正指导行业自律组织加快制定银行理财产品信息披露、业绩展示等相关自律规则。与 此同时，即将于9月1日正式施行的《银行保险机构资产管理产品信息披露管理办法》（下称"信披新 规"）也对业绩比较基准的调整提出明确要求。 该人士表示，根据信披新规，产品管理人在披露业绩比较基准后，应保持其连贯性，原则上不得随意调 ...

目前部分银行APP在理财产品收益率展示、业绩比较基准的展示方面已经做出调整，用特别高并且难以 持续的高收益率吸引投资者的做法明显减少。 据第一财经不完全统计，2026年以来已有近10家理财公司下调数百只产品的业绩基准，更有部分机构将 产品业绩比较基准改为指数型或市场利率型。 面对收益下行与合规约束，理财公司正从负债端加码中长期产品锁定资金，从资产端借道公募基金增厚 收益，试图在净值化时代寻找新的破局之道。 业绩比较基准批量调整 据第一财经不完全统计，进入2026年以来，农银理财、民生理财、中邮理财、兴银理财等近10家机构相 继发布公告，下调旗下多只产品的业绩比较基准，涉及产品数量达数百只。多数调整后上限已降至 3.2%以下。 目前部分银行APP在理财产品收益率展示、业绩比较基准的展示方面已经做出调整。 "筛选产品时，收益率从高到低排下来，排在前面的也没多高。"深圳投资者钱莫（化名）对比年前年后 的APP截图时感慨道。正如他所观察到的，近期银行理财产品的营销端正在经历一场"降温"。 例如，近日，民生理财的"贵竹固收增强两年定开2号"产品，业绩比较基准从4%~6%大幅下调至 2.6%~3.1%，上限接近"腰斩"。 ...

2月末起逐步恢复。 (1) 出口情绪稍缓, 内需不足上方空间有限。 (2) 下方有反内 卷及成本端支撑。 (1) 甲醇整体受到伊朗局势的影响预期未来进口减量但下游负反 馈明显,多空交织(2) 下游MTO龙头装置停车且部分企业降负荷 生产。(3) 上游库存普遍较低,下游库存普遍中高。 (1) 原油震荡偏强。(2)价格回归合理区间。(3)春节假期. 需求平淡。(4)地缘政治加剧,原油上涨。 6(1)检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2)下游改善 不及预期。 (3) 价格回归合理区间。 (4) 地缘政治加剧,原油 上涨。 (1) 2026年全球投产较少,西北地区差别电价有望实行,倒逼 PVC产能出清,未来预期偏乐观。(2)基本面较差。8(3)抢出口 PVC 阶段性放缓。 (1) 宏观情绪暂时消退,盘面重新交易基本面。 (2) 基本面偏 弱,绝对价格低位。 (3) 液氯小幅补贴,现货价格小幅上涨。 (1) 2月CP价格上行,3月买货仍相对紧张。(2)中东地缘冲突 溢价回升,PG节后走势偏强。(3)海外寒潮驱动逻辑逐步放缓 预计基差仍将修复走扩。(4)国内PDH开工率下滑、利润预计季 节性修复,LPG需求端短期偏 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-24 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4117.40 | 14291.56 | 4707.54 | 15594.11 | 4174.84 | 1465.36 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.86 | 1.35 | 1.01 | 1.34 | 0.96 | -0.33 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9386.11 | 12634.50 | 5260.84 | 4409.74 | 5933.52 | 689.36 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 36 $\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$] 宏观与策略 行业与公司 非银行业快评:2 ...

债 债券周报 券 。 2026-2-24 [ [Table_Title] 公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，12 单商业不动产 REITs 已申报 公募 REITs 周报（2026.2.9-2026.2.15） 相关研究报告： [Table_ReportInfo] 《公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，华夏 中核清洁能源 REIT 上市》--2026- 2-9 《公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，首批 商业不动产 REITs 申报受理》-- 2026-2-2 《公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，部分 待上市项目状态更新至"中止"》 --2026-1-25 证券分析师： [Table_Author] 徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao @tpyzq.com E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 [Table 报告摘要_Summary] 一、二级市场：本周公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 本周公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，REITs 市场成交额减少 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月24日 2025 年四季度保险业资金运用情况点评 压实固收底仓，增持权益有空间 |  行业研究·行业快评 | |  | 非银金融·保险Ⅱ  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | | 证券分析师： | 王京灵 | 0755-22941150 | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525070007 | 事项： 国家金融监督管理总局发布保险业 2025 年 4 季度资金运用情况及相关数据。截至 2025 年四季度末，我国 保险资金运用余额达 38.5 万亿元，同比增长 15.7%。 国信非银观点：2025 年四季度，保险资金权益占比创近四年新高（占行业规模比例为 9.7%，不含公募基 金基金占比），债券配置维持高位（占行业规模 48.6%），存款与非标持续压降。在长端利率中枢下移与 "资产荒"延续的背景下，险企主动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].