来源：睿远基金 又到年末，是时候对自己的投资做一做深度复盘了，打开基金账户，除了看看收益率，其实我们还可以考虑一个容易被忽略的因素：资产配置的再平衡。 如果把投资比作开车，年末体检就是检查车辆是否偏离车道、发动机是否磨损的关键时刻，而资产再平衡，在此刻就有点像是方向盘的微调。 年末基金投资体检参考公式 要盘点一年的基金投资，可展开的维度实在太多了。因此，为了简化讨论，我们不妨借用这个公式做分析：投资者收益 = α + β - γ α代表选基能力。我们的基金本身质量如何？投资策略是否清晰？最大回撤是否在承受范围内？这像是检查发动机性能。关于如何选择优质基金，小编过 往写过很多文章进行讨论，感兴趣的读者可以查看历史文章。 β代表市场机遇。主要与市场整体阶段性表现有关。 由此可见，买入后就束之高阁，或许并不妥当。年末基金体检或有必要重新审视基金账户的资产配置，在必要时做资产再平衡。 再平衡的原理 再平衡的原理很简单：定期将各类资产的比例调整回最初设定的目标值。当股票涨得多时卖出部分股票，买入表现较差的债券；反之亦然。这一操作遵循 均值回归的朴素原理——涨多了会跌，跌多了会涨。 大多数投资者在购买基金的时候，并不会单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent annual investment strategy conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan featured an outdoor clothing sale, which attracted attention but was stated to have no significant impact on the conference itself [4][5]. Company Overview - Shenwan Hongyuan hosted its annual investment strategy conference at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Shanghai, with over 1,900 investors and representatives from 518 listed companies in attendance [8]. - The conference included a main forum and 12 sub-forums covering various core areas such as asset allocation, high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, consumption, and cyclical sectors [8]. Market Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests that the "15th Five-Year Plan" will accelerate reform dividends, with nominal GDP expected to improve and the economy transitioning from atypical recovery to a virtuous cycle [10]. - The strategy indicates a two-phase bull market for A-shares, with an initial high-level adjustment followed by a comprehensive bull market in the second half of 2026 [10]. - The bond market is anticipated to experience fluctuations, focusing on "asset allocation rebalancing" and "price recovery" as key themes for 2026 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter is expected to be a process of asset allocation rebalancing, with significant importance placed on asset allocation this year, particularly in the context of the equity market's substantial rise in the second and third quarters [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has recently announced the resumption of bond buying, which is a liquidity injection tool aimed at addressing short-term liquidity pressures in the bond market [1][2] - The PBOC's bond buying in October was limited to 20 billion, but if extended over a month, it could return to a normal level of around 100 billion, indicating a continued commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2] - The resumption of bond buying is expected to stabilize the bond market, particularly for ten-year government bonds, suggesting that the market will enter a period of reduced volatility [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Supply Pressure - The bond market is expected to return to its allocation characteristics, with a focus on longer-duration bonds that exhibit lower volatility, particularly the ten-year bonds [3] - There is significant supply pressure in the bond market due to weak demand from the real economy, but this pressure is expected to ease towards the end of the year, especially after November [3][4] - The year-end period is typically a time when large traditional bond investment institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, engage in pre-allocating bonds for the upcoming year, leading to a temporary imbalance in supply and demand [3] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Market Outlook - Current fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be moderate, with a focus on 500 billion in policy financial tools and another 500 billion in advance local government bond issuance, which may support stable economic growth but not lead to significant upturns [4] - The overall economic environment remains weak, with indicators such as PMI and financing data suggesting that the economy is still in a bottoming phase, which is reflected in the real estate sector as well [4] - The bond market is seen as relatively favorable under these conditions, with limited upward risks and a stable environment expected through the year-end window [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The bond market is viewed as having high allocation value, particularly from November to the pre-Spring Festival period, with limited space for further declines in yields [5] - The central bank's lack of intent to lower interbank funding prices suggests that the bond market will maintain a stable yield level, with the ten-year government bond being a key focus for investors seeking both allocation and trading opportunities [5][6] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as an advantageous investment tool, providing easy access to the bond market and supporting flexible trading options for investors [6]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the Q4 market may not experience the same "running ahead" trend as in previous years, with a weaker attitude towards institutional buying in the bond market [6][7][8] - The report suggests that the central bank's resumption of bond purchases is primarily aimed at injecting long-term liquidity and replacing financial liabilities at low costs, with potential buying space estimated between 870 billion and 1.15 trillion [9][10] - The probability of interest rate cuts may marginally increase, but remains low, with the decision on reserve requirement ratios depending on the scale of bond purchases [11][12] Group 2 - Current market trading congestion has decreased compared to Q3, but many funds still maintain high durations, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [12] - The report highlights that strategies for Q4 and 2026 may shift from duration strategies to interest rate arbitrage strategies, with an increased focus on asset allocation [15] - Credit bonds have shown strong performance since October, but the report warns that this trend may not be sustainable due to potential regulatory impacts and reduced demand for credit bonds [16][18] Group 3 - The implementation of new accounting standards for insurance in early 2026 may weaken the allocation power of insurance towards perpetual bonds, with a more significant negative impact expected on bank perpetual bonds [20][21] - The new VAT regulations on bond interest income may create pricing discrepancies between new and old financial bonds, affecting investor choices and market dynamics [23][24] - The report discusses the impact of stock market inflows on convertible bonds, suggesting that increased risk appetite may lead to higher demand for convertible bonds, benefiting their prices [27][28] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the need to adjust the investment framework for convertible bonds, shifting from a cyclical price perspective to a focus on the underlying stock's fundamental elasticity [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the beginning of the second phase of rate cuts aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic and financial risks [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cut is characterized as a preemptive measure rather than a crisis response, intended to mitigate potential economic downturns [2] - The Fed may implement 1-2 additional rate cuts in the remaining quarter of the year, with a total reduction of 0.25-0.5 percentage points depending on economic growth and inflation trends [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The rate cut is generally favorable for the stock market, enhancing financing accessibility and reducing corporate financing costs, but its positive impact on global markets should not be overestimated [2] - Significant capital outflows from U.S. equities have been observed, with approximately $259 billion exiting U.S. long-term equity mutual funds in the first half of the year, and a record outflow of $357.4 billion in July [3] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - Funds flowing out of U.S. equities are primarily being reallocated to U.S. bonds and money markets, indicating a shift towards safer assets rather than a large-scale migration to foreign equities [4] - Despite some capital inflow into non-U.S. markets, the overall scale remains limited, with only $13.6 billion flowing into global equity funds outside the U.S. in July [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - As the Fed continues its moderate rate cut strategy, most funds are expected to remain within the U.S. financial markets, although some investors may seek undervalued assets globally [5] - A potential aggressive rate cut by the Fed could lead to a temporary boost in global markets, benefiting developed markets like Europe and Japan, as well as emerging markets [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the beginning of the second phase of rate cuts [1] - This rate cut is characterized as a preemptive measure aimed at mitigating potential economic and financial risks amid signs of localized economic slowdown, rather than a crisis response [1] - The Fed is expected to continue with moderate rate cuts in the remaining quarter of the year, potentially implementing 1-2 additional cuts depending on economic growth and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - There has been a significant outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market, with approximately $259 billion net outflow from U.S. long-term equity mutual funds in the first half of the year, and a record outflow of $357.4 billion in July alone [1][2] - The majority of the outflow has shifted towards U.S. bond and money markets, indicating a preference for safer assets rather than a large-scale migration to foreign stock markets [3] - Despite the outflow from U.S. equities, the global allocation remains predominantly in U.S. stocks, with fund managers maintaining around 60% allocation to U.S. equities [2] Group 3 - The inflow of foreign capital into Chinese stocks and funds has reversed a two-year trend of net selling, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese market [2] - European markets have also benefited from the outflow of funds from the U.S., with countries like Germany, Spain, and Italy experiencing double-digit gains this year [2] - The current trend of capital reallocation reflects a cautious approach by investors, driven by concerns over the U.S. economy, high valuations, and policy uncertainties [3] Group 4 - As the Fed continues its moderate preemptive rate cut strategy, a portion of "smart money" may seek opportunities in global markets, particularly in developed markets like Europe and Japan, while emerging markets may see more structural inflows [4] - The potential for aggressive rate cuts under pressure from the Trump administration could lead to a temporary boost in global markets due to increased liquidity, benefiting both developed and emerging markets [5] - However, the risk of rapid capital outflows remains if the Fed is forced to tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation, which could negatively impact global markets, especially in emerging economies with high external debt [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the beginning of the second phase of rate cuts aimed at preventing potential economic and financial risks [1] - The Fed is expected to continue with moderate rate cuts in the remaining quarter of the year, potentially implementing 1-2 more cuts, depending on economic growth and inflation trends [1] - Typically, Fed rate cuts are favorable for the stock market, enhancing financing availability and reducing corporate financing costs, but the positive impact of this round of cuts on global markets should not be overestimated [1] Group 2 - There has been significant capital outflow from the U.S. stock market, with U.S. long-term equity mutual funds experiencing a net outflow of approximately $259 billion in the first half of the year, and a record outflow of $357.4 billion in July [2] - The outflow of funds from U.S. equities is primarily directed towards U.S. bond and money markets, indicating a shift from higher-risk equity assets to more stable investments [3] - Despite the outflow from U.S. stocks, global equity funds outside the U.S. saw a modest inflow of $13.6 billion in July, the highest since December 2021, but still relatively limited in absolute terms [2][3] Group 3 - Asian and European markets have attracted some of the capital flowing out of the U.S. stock market, with foreign investment in China's domestic stocks and funds increasing by $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [3] - European markets, including Germany, Spain, and Italy, have seen double-digit gains this year, driven by foreign capital inflows and monetary easing [3] - The current outflow from U.S. equities is characterized as "asset allocation rebalancing," reflecting investor concerns over the U.S. economy and a preference for safer assets rather than a loss of confidence in the long-term trend of U.S. stocks [4] Group 4 - While global markets outside the U.S. have gained some attractiveness, the scale of capital inflow remains limited, primarily reflecting structural opportunities rather than a significant shift in investor sentiment [4] - Future capital flows will depend on the development of domestic demand in China and the overall economic conditions in Europe and Japan, which are expected to benefit from the Fed's moderate rate cut strategy [4] - A potential large-scale outflow of capital could occur if the Fed is forced to tighten monetary policy due to rising inflation, which could negatively impact emerging markets with high external debt [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on September 26, with government bond futures rising across the board, while the interbank bond yield exhibited some divergence, indicating mixed sentiment among institutions as the quarter-end approaches [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.20% at 114.190, the 10-year main contract up 0.13% at 107.680, the 5-year main contract up 0.06% at 105.540, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.342 [2]. - The interbank yield on long-term government bonds weakened in the afternoon, while government bonds remained stable. The 30-year government bond yield was flat at 2.2245%, and the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.2 basis points to 1.8005% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a net injection of 411.5 billion yuan on September 26, with significant reverse repos conducted, including 1,658 billion yuan for 7-day terms at a rate of 1.40% and 6,000 billion yuan for 14-day terms [5]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down 15.1 basis points to 1.321% and the 7-day rate down 8.3 basis points to 1.501% [5]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the "old-for-new" policy effectively boosted retail sales in the first half of the year, particularly in durable goods and communication equipment, indicating a shift towards smarter and greener consumption [6]. - Shenwan Macro pointed out that once long-term rates fall below 2%, markets often enter a period of volatility, suggesting that the current market may be undergoing a rebalancing phase in asset allocation strategies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has entered a phase of adjustment after a prolonged bull market, with increasing market divergence and potential investment blind spots identified for 2025 [2][9]. Recent Changes in the Bond Market - The bond market has shown rapid interest rate declines and a flattening yield curve since the beginning of 2023, with the 10Y government bond yield dropping by 94 basis points and the 1Y yield by 53 basis points [3][10]. - The economic backdrop includes a GDP growth rate decrease from 6.5% to 5.4% and a decline in MLF rates from 2.75% to 2.00% [3][19]. - Significant adjustments have occurred in the bond market, with the 10Y government bond yield rising from 1.60% to 1.83% between January 6 and March 14, 2024 [3][26]. Investment Blind Spots in the Bond Market - Historical data suggests that once long-term interest rates fall below 2%, the market often enters a multi-year consolidation phase, with the average time taken for rates to drop from 3% to 2% being 2 years and from 2% to 1% being 4 years [4][37]. - The market has exhibited extreme positioning since 2022, with the yield spread between the 10Y government bond and the overall A-share dividend yield breaking historical norms, even turning negative at -0.9% in January 2025 [4][65]. Framework Adjustments for the Bond Market - The policy environment has solidified since the "924" policy, with a clearer GDP target of around 5% and a focus on dynamic adjustments [5][69]. - Asset allocation has begun to rebalance, with significant shifts in fund positioning observed, such as a mixed fund stock holding ratio of 70.5%, which is at a low percentile compared to the past three years [5][84]. - The current yield of 1.83% for the 10Y government bond remains significantly lower than the 3.35% dividend yield of high-dividend stocks, indicating a potential return to more normalized market conditions [5][90].

Group 1 - The current market has a strong expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 92% probability according to CME FedWatch [1] - The upcoming rate cut is categorized as a preventive measure rather than a crisis response, which historically has different impacts on the stock market [1][8] - Preventive rate cuts can lower corporate financing costs, stimulate mergers and acquisitions, and reduce market risk premiums, potentially boosting stock market valuations [2][3] Group 2 - Historical examples show that preventive rate cuts in 1995-1996 and 1998 led to significant stock market recoveries, with the Nasdaq rising 39.6% in 1995 and 28.2% in 1996 [3] - In contrast, crisis-driven rate cuts often fail to prevent stock market declines due to existing economic downturns and investor panic, as seen during the 2001 and 2007 crises [6][7] - The current economic environment is characterized by "stagflation," with inflation pressures complicating the effectiveness of preventive rate cuts [9][10] Group 3 - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite a cumulative 100 basis point cut [10] - The potential for a second phase of rate cuts remains uncertain, with two possible strategies: a cautious approach to balance economic stimulation and inflation control, or an aggressive approach that could lead to short-term market boosts but long-term instability [14][15] - The outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market is more about asset reallocation rather than a mass exodus, with significant investments still directed towards U.S. bonds and money markets [16][19] Group 4 - Global stock markets, particularly in China and Europe, are attracting some capital, but the overall scale of this shift remains limited and reflects structural opportunities rather than a definitive trend [17][20] - If the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate cut strategy, it could lead to a temporary boost in global markets, but risks of a rapid outflow of capital could emerge if inflation pressures force a tightening of monetary policy [21]