证 券 研 究 报 告 自媒体A股搜索热度重回高位 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年11月25日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 偏股型公募新发份额 私募备案规模 北向成交占比 两融资金净流入 股票型ETF净申购 产业资本净减持 自媒体A搜索热度 新开户数量 本周 上期 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 3 数据来源：Wind，华创证券 注：公募、两融、外资、ETF、产业资本、自媒体热度为周频数据(截至2025/11/23)、私募(截至2025/9)与新开户 ...

在此，我们提供一个更具策略性的建议：若您拥有六十万元人民币，不妨将其平均分成三份。一份存入一年期定期，另一份存入二年期定期，最后一份则存 入三年期定期。如此安排，可确保每年都有一笔资金到期，既能享受到相对较高的存款利息，又能有效解决资金的流动性难题。 近年来，我国银行存款利率持续走低，令人唏嘘。曾经，三年期存款利率尚能维持在百分之三以上，但时至今日，这一数字已悄然跌破三，不少业内人士甚 至惊呼，国内银行存款已正式步入"二字头"时代。然而，市场的低利率并未浇灭居民储蓄的热情，反而催生出更为旺盛的存款需求。中国人民银行的统计数 据显示，今年一月至七月，我国居民新增存款高达惊人的11.09万亿元。 因此，我们的建议是，储户可以适度将资金存入中小银行，以获取更高的存款利率。但务必将资金分散，存入多家中小银行，且每家银行的存款总额不应超 过五十万元人民币。如此一来，即使某家银行不幸破产，您的存款也能获得全额赔付。 这一现象背后，实则透露出居民在投资选择上的无奈。放眼当下，股票、基金以及银行理财产品等投资渠道，无不伴随着巨大的风险，稍有不慎便可能导致 本金的损失。相比之下，将资金稳妥地存入银行，似乎成了一种更为稳健的选择 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 2023-2024年，韩股在熊市底部震荡近2 年。估值也比较低,像2024年8-9月，咱 们全球股票指数估值表里,韩股的市盈 率在10-12倍上下，市净率一度不到1。 估值比当时的港股恒生指数略高，但在 全球也处于比较低的水平。 (2) 在美联储进入这一轮降息周期后, 韩股走出了长达三四年的熊市,随后- 年里韩股也出现了大幅上涨。 港股、韩股,以及A股的小微盘指数,都 是容易受到资金流动性影响的品种。 (1) 2021-2023年，美元大幅加息。 韩股从2021年的高点，下跌近40%。 并在今年下半年加速上涨。 韩国投资者本身也是以赌性闻名全球。 ,1,11 一 一 小小 一 一 一 小小 0 1 十 小 小 0 1 十 小 小 1 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of risk appetite among investors, emphasizing its impact on asset allocation, investment strategies, and market price fluctuations in a complex economic environment. It highlights the importance of measuring risk appetite to make informed investment decisions, especially in light of uncertainties in economic growth and market volatility [2]. Group 1: Risk Appetite Measurement Methods - **Volatility Indicators**: Volatility is a direct reflection of market risk, with the VIX index serving as a contrarian indicator of market fear. High volatility indicates low risk appetite, while low volatility suggests a higher willingness to take risks. The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index is currently low, indicating that investors do not foresee significant systemic risks in the near future [2]. - **Liquidity of Funds**: Fund liquidity is another key indicator of market risk appetite. A shift of funds from high-risk to low-risk assets, or vice versa, reflects changes in risk appetite. The financing balance in the A-share market, which represents investors' willingness to use leverage for stock purchases, has recently reached historical highs, although its growth rate has begun to slow [4][5]. - **Policy Expectations**: Market expectations regarding future government support measures, including fiscal and monetary policies, significantly influence risk appetite. For instance, after a significant market drop due to tariff escalations, government interventions helped stabilize the market, leading to a recovery [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Implications - The article notes that by analyzing the driving factors of risk appetite, investors can assess whether asset prices are in a bullish or bearish environment. If asset prices show strong annualized returns but experience short-term volatility, and the factors driving the market are improving, it is advisable for investors to start positioning themselves [6]. - Conversely, if the risk appetite factors remain unchanged, it is recommended for investors to maintain their current asset allocations or strategies [6].

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced slight fluctuations this week, with the US market showing a minor decline while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.26% [3][8]. - The European markets, which had seen significant declines in previous weeks, generally rose this week [5]. - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with minor fluctuations [7]. Group 2 - Recent global market volatility is largely due to uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in December [9]. - There are concerns about high valuations in some overseas markets, leading to fears of potential valuation corrections [9][10]. - Opportunities for undervalued overseas market investments may arise in the future, suggesting a need for patience [13]. Group 3 - The South Korean stock market has shown strong performance recently, with significant gains in the fourth quarter, surpassing the Hong Kong market's growth for the year [14][15]. - Both the Hong Kong and South Korean markets are sensitive to global liquidity flows due to a relatively small number of domestic investors [16][17]. - The South Korean market has experienced a nearly 40% decline from its 2021 peak and is currently in a low valuation range, with P/E ratios around 10-12 times and P/B ratios below 1 [22][24]. Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued at 4-5 stars during previous downturns in 2018, 2020, and 2022, and is currently around 2.9 stars [33]. - There are no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced to simulate similar effects [35][36]. Group 5 - The newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has topped sales charts and includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term investment for wealth accumulation [41][42]. - The book provides insights into the long-term returns of various asset classes, reinforcing the importance of stock allocation in family assets [42][43].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing trend of savings among residents, with a significant deposit increase of 9.22 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, averaging over 3 trillion yuan per month, driven by concerns over unemployment, unexpected medical expenses, and retirement costs [1] Summary by Sections Savings Trends - Residents are motivated to save due to potential risks such as unemployment, sudden illnesses, and retirement expenses, leading to a preference for bank deposits over riskier investment options like stocks and funds [1] One-Year vs. Three-Year Deposits - One-year deposits offer three main advantages: higher liquidity, allowing for easier access to funds in emergencies; more investment opportunities, as funds can be reinvested annually; and protection against inflation by allowing partial withdrawals for consumption [4][5][7] - In contrast, three-year deposits lock in interest rates, which can be beneficial in a declining interest rate environment, with current rates around 1.9% for three-year deposits compared to 1.5% for one-year deposits, resulting in a difference of 1200 yuan in interest for a 100,000 yuan deposit over three years [7] Decision Factors - The choice between one-year and three-year deposits should be based on individual circumstances. For uncertain future expenses like housing or medical costs, one-year deposits are recommended. For long-term savings goals such as education or retirement, three-year deposits may be more suitable [8]

Peter Tchir of Academy writing markets are rejoicing the end of the government shutdown. But none of the other issues that have been bothering the market itself just yet. Peter joins us now for more.Peter. Good morning. Good to see it. Good morning.Let's talk about those other issues. What are they. I think you just talked about a lot of them.What is the valuation. Correct. Fair or not.Right. It's it feels a bit frothy. You're now seeing your mega caps move 10% on the back of earnings reports, which seems l ...

Group 1: Liquidity and Fundraising - The issuance of actively managed equity public funds reached a new high since January 2023, with new issuance at 199 billion yuan, compared to 223 billion yuan previously, maintaining a 96% historical percentile[10] - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of nearly 640 billion yuan over the past six months, with a weekly net inflow of 354.7 billion yuan, placing it at the 93% historical percentile[42] - The total amount of equity financing last week was 103 billion yuan, which is at the 53% historical percentile, including 35.9 billion yuan from IPOs and 67.1 billion yuan from refinancing[30] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 4000 points, while the search interest in A-shares on social media platforms has declined overall[74] - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market was 110.96 billion yuan, down 33.81 billion yuan from the previous value, placing it at the 59.2% historical percentile[12] - The trading heat for the media sector increased by 17 percentage points to 26%, while the electronic sector decreased by 11 percentage points to 43%[67] Group 3: Margin Trading and Capital Flow - The net inflow of margin trading funds significantly decreased to approximately 59.9 billion yuan, down from 290.9 billion yuan previously, placing it at the 57% historical percentile[16] - The total margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with a proportion of 2.54% of the market capitalization, at the 96% historical percentile[16] - The net inflow in the electric new energy sector was 107.5 billion yuan, while the non-bank financial sector saw a net outflow of 21.3 billion yuan[24]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flow - The issuance of equity mutual funds reached a new high since March this year, with new shares totaling 22.35 billion units, up from 6.04 billion units previously, marking a significant increase[12] - Net inflow of leveraged funds slightly increased, with a total margin balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, placing it in the 99th percentile over the past three years[16] - Southbound capital saw a cumulative net inflow of over 600 billion yuan in the past five months, with a weekly net inflow of 25.18 billion yuan, ranking in the 82nd percentile historically[44] Group 2: Trading Activity and Investor Sentiment - The trading heat for coal increased by 28 percentage points to 49%, while central enterprises rose by 27 percentage points to 59%, and banks by 25 percentage points to 66%[2] - The overall market saw a net inflow of retail investor funds amounting to 144.78 billion yuan, an increase of 76.52 billion yuan from the previous value, placing it in the 81.1 percentile over the past five years[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4,000 points on October 28, leading to an increase in A-share search interest on social media[2] Group 3: Fund Demand and Corporate Actions - Equity financing amounted to 18.47 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 9.17 billion yuan and refinancing 9.30 billion yuan, ranking in the 72nd percentile historically[30] - The net reduction in industrial capital was 72.2 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous 93.2 billion yuan, indicating a decline in net selling activity[33] - The total amount of repurchases by listed companies decreased to 940 million yuan from 1.31 billion yuan, placing it in the 22nd percentile historically[27]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but the market had already priced in this news, leading to limited positive effects post-announcement [1] - The Fed's indication of pausing further rate cuts has been interpreted as a short-lived easing cycle, prompting a withdrawal of funds and resulting in a rapid market decline [1][3] - The overall market movement aligns with expectations, with a predicted rise to the 116,000-119,000 range, but a false breakout at 116,000 confirmed the end of the rebound, leading to a bearish stance near 117,000 [1] Group 2 - The primary factor for the significant decline is not the rate cut itself, but the change in future policy direction, indicating a shortened or halted path for further rate cuts, which limits liquidity for risk assets [3] - A three-day consecutive decline on the daily chart confirms a weak market structure, with a false breakout near 116,000 and a continuation of the bottoming phase [3] - The market remains in a volatile structure following previous declines, with a focus on short positions during rebounds, while key resistance is identified around 112,000 [3]