证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 超长债周报 超长债收益率小幅上行 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周税期资金面偏紧，A 股大跌，债市窄幅震荡收益率略微 上行，超长债小跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投 非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 21 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的反弹，30-10 利差会阶段性 压缩。 20 年国开债：截至 11 月 2 ...

二手房市场首次出现连续两个月全部70城价格下跌的局面，房地产"金九银十"传统旺季彻底褪色。 这一数据创造了历史——自2011年有数据统计以来，首次出现连续两个月所有70城二手房房价均下跌的情形。 10月全国70城房价数据近日公布，新房和二手房价格环比跌幅双双扩大，所有70个城市二手房价格连续两个月全线下跌，这是自2011年有数据统计以来首 次。 10月房价下跌范围之广、幅度之大引发关注。 国家统计局数据显示，10月70个大中城市新房价格环比下降0.5%，二手房价格环比下降0.7%，环比降幅均较9月扩大了0.1个百分点。 曾经火爆的"金九银十"今年彻底失约。上海一枝独秀，新房价格环比上涨0.3%，而北京、广州和深圳新房价格全部下跌。 更为触目惊心的是，64个城市新房价格下跌，下跌城市平均跌幅为0.51%。 所有70城二手房房价环比均下跌，下跌城市平均跌幅为0.66%。 各线城市中，一线城市也未能幸免。 10月，一线城市新房房价环比下降0.3%，环比降幅与9月持平。 具体来看，上海新房房价环比上涨0.3%，自2019年8月以来新房房价环比持续上涨，显示了一定韧性。 而北京环比由上涨转为下跌，深圳环比跌幅收窄，广州 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 超长债周报 经济放缓，超长债横盘震荡 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 10 月统计局数据显示经济增速继续放缓，通胀 小幅回升，另外金融数据增速全面回落，总体经济依然存在压力，债市 先扬后抑，超长债微涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅下降， 交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 16 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的 ...

Core Insights - The global energy market is experiencing volatility due to rapid industry development, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand imbalances [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has risen nearly 15% for 2025, but the underlying fundamentals appear unstable [3][8] - There is a significant divergence between the soaring gold prices and the declining oil prices, reminiscent of the 2008 market conditions [3][8] Commodity Price Trends - Gold is trading around $4,000 per ounce, while oil is at approximately $40 per barrel, indicating a stark contrast in performance [3] - The WTI crude oil is entering a "low-price recovery" phase, which will impact natural gas and gasoline prices, currently around $2 per million BTU and $2 per gallon, respectively [3][8] - The agricultural sector, particularly soybeans, is becoming a focal point, with $11 per bushel for soybeans seen as a critical resistance level for 2026 [4][8] Agricultural Market Outlook - If soybeans can maintain above $11 per bushel, it may signal bullish trends for the grain and energy markets [4] - However, the likelihood of sustained prices above 2025 averages for soybeans, corn, wheat, oil, and natural gas is low due to oversupply concerns [4][8] - Historical patterns suggest that after significant price increases, commodities tend to correct, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [4][7] Market Dynamics and Risks - The overall commodity price increase is primarily driven by the metal sector, with gold's surge diverging from fundamental values [7][8] - The performance of the Bloomberg Commodity Index relative to the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index indicates potential systemic risks if the U.S. stock market experiences a downturn [11]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists report that the Bank of Thailand may require evidence of worsening growth before considering further interest rate cuts, while also highlighting emerging concerns about deflation risks [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy - The latest minutes from the Bank of Thailand's monetary policy committee indicate that policymakers believe further rate cuts should be contingent on actual evidence of deteriorating growth [1] - The committee has begun to pay attention to deflation risks, a topic that was not previously mentioned in recent policy meetings [1] Committee Insights - Barclays notes that among the two members who supported a rate cut in the October meeting, at least one advocated for further easing based on concerns about deflation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation rate increased year-on-year in September, while the overall financial data continued to face pressure. Coupled with the sharp decline in the A-share market, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low, while the variety spread widened, and the absolute level was also low [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic situation, the probability of a bond market rebound in October is high. With the release of the third-quarter economic data next Monday, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 4.5%. Given the weak economy, the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed, and the bond market rebound will continue. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out due to multiple factors. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread narrowing and the variety spread widening [1][10]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. With the expected bond market rebound, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low level. The variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds was 23.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (October 12 - 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly, with a total issuance of 577 million yuan. Treasury bonds accounted for 400 million yuan, and local government bonds accounted for 177 million yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,181 million yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,792 billion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [29][30]. Yield - Last week, the yields of various types of ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by -1BP, -2BP, -3BP, and -2BP respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the previous week [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [56].

Group 1 - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.7945 on September 22, with a slight increase to 0.7968, reflecting a 0.22% rise [1] - The Swiss National Bank's policy interest rate has been reduced to 0%, while the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) is slightly above zero, indicating a combination of economic slowdown and deflationary pressures [1] - The Swiss franc has appreciated by 13% against the US dollar this year, driven by the overall weakness of the dollar and global safe-haven inflows [1] Group 2 - The Swiss franc's continued strength exacerbates domestic deflation risks, prompting market expectations that the central bank may signal future interest rate cuts [1] - There is speculation that the SNB may hint at the reintroduction of negative interest rates to address the excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc [1] - The USD/CHF exchange rate reached the EMA50 resistance level on September 19, contributing to a slight bearish trend, although previous trading showed strong bullish momentum supported by positive signals from the relative strength index [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) reached a nearly 10-year high on August 18, 2025, breaking the previous high of 3731.69 points set on February 18, 2021, with a closing increase of 0.85% to 3728.03 points and a trading volume exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan [4][5]. - The surge in the SHCI is attributed to three main drivers: significant inflow of new capital, supportive policies and institutional benefits, and strong performance in key sectors such as technology and finance [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, aiming to prevent deflation risks and stimulate demand through appropriate monetary easing [7][9]. - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies aims to enhance consumer spending and support service sector businesses, reflecting a shift in fiscal and financial policy focus towards improving living standards and promoting consumption [6][7]. Group 3: International Trade and Energy - U.S. President Trump announced no plans to impose tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil, which alleviates trade tensions and stabilizes the global energy market, allowing China to secure its energy supply [6][9]. - The decision to delay tariffs is expected to reduce market uncertainties and prevent potential disruptions similar to those experienced during the 2024 U.S.-China trade conflict [6][9]. Group 4: Financial Statistics - As of July 2025, China's broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while narrow money supply (M1) increased by 5.6% [11]. - The social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, indicating a robust recovery in the economy and financial market [11].

Group 1 - The global economy in 2025 is characterized by uncertainties, including trade wars, technological transitions, and geopolitical risks, making financial markets a key window for observing macro trends [1] - The recent roundtable discussion at Fudan University focused on the themes of economic and trade competition, technological transitions, and the current international financial situation, aiming to provide academic references for China's capital market in response to new international changes [1][2] - The chief economist from ICBC International highlighted that the global economic recovery cycle is confirmed for 2023-2024, but recent trade wars have caused fluctuations in expectations, with Hong Kong stocks rising nearly 30% in the past three months, outperforming global markets [2] Group 2 - The resilience of the Chinese economy is attributed to its large-scale market and complete industrial system, with a focus on the integration of digital and real economies [3] - The chief economist from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation emphasized the need for China to manage its relationships with the US and neighboring countries carefully to avoid isolation, suggesting a focus on domestic demand and long-term strategies [3] - The Fudan University professor pointed out that the capital market is crucial for activating property income and addressing the decline in regular income, which is essential for the internationalization of the RMB [4] Group 3 - The discussion highlighted the importance of capital markets in supporting early-stage financing for technology companies and accelerating breakthroughs in advanced technology fields [5] - Experts agreed that the global economic recovery is subject to fluctuations, but China's manufacturing advantages and technological potential provide resilience against challenges [6] - The need for China to be cautious of deflation and geopolitical risks was emphasized, advocating for counter-cyclical policies and technological breakthroughs to achieve quality growth [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, there were many negative factors in the bond market, including a tightening of the capital market, relatively smooth progress in tariff updates, and a certain increase in the stock market and commodities during the domestic "anti-involution" movement, which suppressed bond market sentiment. The bond market fell rapidly throughout the week, with ultra-long bonds experiencing a slight decline [1][3][12][35]. - As of July 11, the spread between the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year Treasury bond was 21BP, at a historically low level. The 5-month domestic GDP year-on-year growth rate was about 5.0%, slightly lower than April but still higher than the annual economic growth target. There is still a risk of deflation. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the term spread protection for the 30-year Treasury bond is limited [2][13]. - As of July 11, the spread between the 20-year China Development Bank bond and the 20-year Treasury bond was 3BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economy still shows resilience, but there is still downward pressure. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the spread protection for the 20-year China Development Bank bond is limited [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: This week, the bond market was affected by multiple negative factors, resulting in a rapid decline in the bond market and a slight decline in ultra-long bonds. Last week, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][12]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: For 30-year Treasury bonds and 20-year China Development Bank bonds, the spreads are at historically low levels. The domestic economy shows resilience but also faces downward pressure. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the spread protection is limited [2][3][13][14]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of June 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.5% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. The 30-year variety has the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (July 7 - July 11, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, totaling 83 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the majority. By term, 30-year bonds had the largest issuance volume [20]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 224.1 billion yuan, including 123 billion yuan of ultra-long Treasury bonds and 101.1 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 1.0286 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week [27]. - **Yield**: This week, due to multiple negative factors, the bond market fell rapidly, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The yields of different types of ultra-long bonds changed to varying degrees [35]. - **Spread Analysis**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed, both at low absolute levels [44][47]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year Treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.61 yuan, with a decline of 0.49%. The total trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly compared to the previous week [50].