编者按 近年来，主要储备货币发行方频繁使用金融制裁工具，使中央银行在国际储备配置中面临前所未有的不 确定性。美国国债和欧盟高评级债券虽然传统上被视为全球最安全的储备资产，但制裁事件表明，其安 全性在地缘政治冲突中可能迅速削弱。在这一背景下，各国央行开始重新评估储备体系的脆弱性，并探 索黄金、人民币以及去中心化加密资产等非主权资产的战略作用。本文系统回顾了金融制裁机制及其对 储备资产影响，构建了同时刻画制裁风险、资产波动性与预期收益的储备配置模型。研究揭示了制裁风 险如何推动储备组合从传统主权资产向黄金、比特币及人民币更为多元的结构转移，并展示去中心化资 产在极端情境下的补充性价值，为中央银行在动荡的地缘政治环境中构建更具韧性的储备组合提供参 考。"IMI财经观察"公众号特推出此文，以飨读者。 对冲制裁风险：加密货币在央行储备资产中的作用 （Hedging Sanctions Risk: Cryptocurrency in Central Bank Reserves） 01 研究背景 加密货币正在从投机性资产逐步进入主流投资与价值转移体系，一些国家已开始探索其在国家资产管理 中的潜在应用。萨尔瓦多于2021年9 ...

欧盟这些年来总是喜欢标榜自己是一个团结的大家庭，然而一旦涉及到实际的金钱利益，欧盟的分裂问 题就很容易暴露出来。冻结俄罗斯资产，本来是西方国家希望用来制约俄罗斯的一招，结果闹了三年， 反倒成了欧盟内部的争议焦点。自从2022年2月俄乌冲突爆发后，欧盟和美国联手冻结了俄罗斯央行在 海外的储备，金额高达3000亿欧元，其中大部分，大约2100亿欧元存放在比利时布鲁塞尔的欧洲清算银 行。 作为资产的托管国，比利时成为了焦点。由于这些资产大部分存放在欧洲清算银行，由比利时监管，比 利时首相巴特·德韦弗从一开始就反对这一计划，认为根本不合适。他并非空口白话，而是有实际的法 律和金融风险考虑。俄罗斯早就放话称，动用这些资产等同于盗窃，并表示将会进行永恒的报复。俄罗 斯前总理梅德韦杰夫也在12月4日警告，这种做法可能被俄罗斯视为战争的导火索。比利时方面担心， 如果俄罗斯将此案告上法庭，或采取反制措施冻结欧盟在俄的投资，比利时将不得不独自承担所有后 果。 此外，欧洲清算银行还从这些冻结的资产中收取了17亿欧元的税款，德韦弗认为，这样的做法不值当。 他明确表示，俄罗斯不会在战争中失败，指望乌克兰能够大胜是幻想，欧盟也不要指望这 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 李致 环球时报特约记者 王逸】美国总统特朗普证实，美军当地时间10日在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押了一艘油轮。委政 府随即谴责美国此举，表示这是"赤裸裸的盗窃"以及"国际海盗行为"，委内瑞拉要向国际机构控告，并呼吁国际社会谴责。 美联社11日称，动用美军控制商船是极其罕见的，这是美政府加大对委政府施压的最新举措。美国海军历史学家文森特直言此次扣押"极不寻 常"且"极具挑衅性。"路透社称，此举推高了油价，并加剧了美委间的紧张关系。 据委国家通讯社报道，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗10日在首都加拉加斯一场游行活动中表示，美国必须停止在世界范围内颠覆政权、发动政变以及侵略 他国的政策，必须停止无止境的帝国主义战争和屠杀。他还告诉支持者，委内瑞拉"如有必要，已准备好打掉北美帝国的毒牙"。马杜罗坚称，美 国军事行动的真正目的是迫使他下台。 美国"政治新闻网"称，此次查扣行动可能迫使船运公司停止参与委原油出口活动，导致全球石油供应趋紧。周三下午，美国原油价格上涨1%。睿 咨得能源地缘政治分析主管莱昂表示，此次扣押行动是"从金融制裁明显升级为实际拦截——这加大了对加拉加斯及其任何出口合作方的风险"。 莱昂还称："此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing discussion regarding frozen Russian assets has escalated into a significant diplomatic issue, with Russia warning the EU of potential consequences if these assets are confiscated [1][3]. Group 1: Background and Context - The situation originated from a proposal by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to use frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, with the amount initially estimated at $186 billion, later adjusted to approximately $105 billion [3]. - Belgium has expressed strong opposition to this plan, as most of the frozen Russian assets are held in accounts at the European Clearing Bank in Brussels, highlighting the intertwining of financial sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and sovereignty disputes [3][5]. Group 2: Russia's Position and Response - Russia's spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, issued a vague yet threatening warning, indicating that the EU would face "surprises" if it proceeded with asset confiscation, reflecting Russia's sensitivity and firm stance on the issue [3][6]. - The distinction between freezing and confiscating assets is crucial, as freezing maintains financial reversibility, while confiscation directly infringes on Russian sovereignty [3][5]. Group 3: Implications for International Relations - Belgium's control over the flow of Russian funds necessitates careful consideration of political, legal, and financial risks, as the EU grapples with internal disagreements on handling the frozen assets [5][6]. - The financial and diplomatic struggle illustrates the economic leverage in modern international relations, where assets represent not just numbers but also national strategy, political influence, and negotiation power [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Communication and Psychological Warfare - Zakharova's statement serves as both a warning and a strategic maneuver, emphasizing the importance of psychological factors in international diplomacy [6][8]. - The EU must balance its political objectives of aiding Ukraine with the potential risks of asset confiscation, while Russia maintains the upper hand through ambiguous threats, compelling decision-makers to proceed with caution [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the U.S. dollar's dominance in the global financial system, highlighting how financial instruments and geopolitical strategies have been used to maintain this supremacy, particularly through mechanisms like the SWIFT system and the Petrodollar agreement [5][13][27]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 established a dollar-gold standard, positioning the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, which was later challenged by the "Triffin Dilemma" [9][10]. - The U.S. dollar's link to gold ended in 1971 when President Nixon suspended the dollar's convertibility into gold, marking the transition to a fiat currency system [12][13]. Group 2: The Petrodollar System - The 1973 oil crisis led to the establishment of the Petrodollar system, where oil transactions were conducted exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating a structural demand for the dollar globally [15][27]. - This system allowed the U.S. to finance its deficits by printing dollars, which were then recycled back into the U.S. economy through the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds by oil-exporting countries [15][27]. Group 3: Financial Control Mechanisms - The SWIFT system, established in 1973, became a crucial tool for tracking and controlling international financial transactions, effectively allowing the U.S. to monitor global financial flows [18][20]. - The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) maintains a blacklist that can freeze assets and restrict transactions, serving as a powerful tool for enforcing economic sanctions [25][31]. Group 4: Case Studies of Financial Power - The case of BNP Paribas illustrates the consequences of violating U.S. sanctions, resulting in a $8.97 billion fine, which exemplifies the reach of U.S. financial regulations [30][31]. - The article highlights the impact of sanctions on countries like Iran and Russia, demonstrating how financial tools can be used to exert geopolitical pressure and isolate nations from the global financial system [36][38]. Group 5: Emerging Alternatives - In response to U.S. financial dominance, countries are exploring alternatives such as the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and digital currencies, which aim to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [44][48]. - The resurgence of gold as a reserve asset reflects a growing concern over the security of dollar-denominated assets, prompting central banks to increase their gold holdings [42][43].

Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. is facing significant geopolitical challenges, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which are straining its strategic resources and affecting its initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, along with Iran's activities, poses potential risks for regional stability, further complicating U.S. foreign policy [1] Economic Indicators - Despite showing economic growth, there is increasing skepticism regarding U.S. economic data, as evidenced by the simultaneous rise in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and gold prices, indicating underlying systemic instability [1] - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with interest payments nearing annual military spending, raising concerns about the sustainability of this debt-driven model [1] U.S.-China Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China in April 2024 highlighted concerns over China's subsidies in electric vehicles and solar panels, which the U.S. believes distort global market competition [1][2] - Secretary of State Antony Blinken's discussions in China included sensitive topics like the Taiwan Strait and energy procurement from Russia, indicating a shift towards more direct U.S. intervention in bilateral relations [2] Legislative Developments - The U.S. Congress is advancing legislation, such as the "Unlimited Act," which could impose economic sanctions on Chinese companies involved with Russian military industries, expanding the scope of previous sanctions [2][3] Financial Isolation Measures - Following Yellen's visit, the U.S. Treasury is planning to isolate Chinese firms linked to Russian military support from the global financial system, reflecting a more systematic approach to sanctions [3] - China's response includes a significant reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings, dropping to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2009, as a precaution against potential asset freezes [3] Gold Reserves and Strategy - China has been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 2,303 tons by September 2025, with a notable acceleration in purchasing rates compared to previous years [5][7] - The shift in China's reserve management strategy includes moving away from dollar reliance towards local currency trade and direct gold procurement, enhancing supply chain resilience [7] Energy and Material Supply Chains - U.S. pressure extends to energy imports, with calls for China to cease purchasing oil and gas from Russia and Iran, reflecting a broader strategy to limit Chinese access to critical materials [9] - The financial sanctions against Russia are designed to disrupt the flow of funds between Chinese and Russian banks, although the impact on China is mitigated by the high percentage of trade conducted in local currencies [9] Military and Industrial Developments - China's military industrial sector has significantly increased its domestic supply chain capabilities, achieving a 90% localization rate for key components, which enhances resilience against external sanctions [11] - The electric vehicle sector has also seen a complete localization of production, with exports rising dramatically, providing a buffer against international pressures [11] Global Gold Market Dynamics - The global demand for gold has surged, with central banks purchasing a total of 415 tons in the first half of 2025, contributing to rising international gold prices [11] - China's strategic increase in gold reserves and purchases has influenced global market trends, contrasting sharply with the risks associated with U.S. Treasury securities [10][12] Economic Pressures on the U.S. - The U.S. faces mounting economic pressures, with a national debt of $38 trillion and annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, prompting a cycle of borrowing [13] - China's reduction of U.S. debt holdings and the shift towards gold purchasing are indicative of a broader strategy to enhance financial independence and mitigate risks associated with U.S. economic policies [13]

Group 1 - The EU has reached an agreement on the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which will officially take effect after the summit on October 23, covering energy and finance sectors [1] - Slovakia's approval was crucial for the sanctions, as it heavily relies on Russian gas and receives significant transit fees, highlighting the economic considerations of member states [1] - The sanctions include a comprehensive ban on Russian LNG, effective from 2027, and a price cap on Russian crude oil set at $47.6 per barrel, further tightening the financial pressure on Russia [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury has also imposed sanctions targeting major Russian oil companies, freezing their domestic assets and prohibiting transactions, indicating a coordinated effort between the U.S. and EU [4] - The EU's increasing reliance on U.S. LNG, which has doubled since 2021, raises concerns about energy security and geopolitical implications for Europe [4] - Russia is adapting by increasing LNG exports to Asia and considering mergers among its major oil companies to strengthen its market position and circumvent sanctions [6] Group 3 - The sanctions are causing significant economic strain in Europe, with natural gas prices nearing five times that of the U.S., leading to layoffs in key industrial sectors [7] - Norway has become the largest gas supplier to the EU, but the reliance on U.S. LNG is seen as a potential geopolitical risk [7] - Public sentiment in Germany is shifting towards a desire to restore Russian gas supplies, reflecting the growing pressure on European governments to balance political decisions with economic realities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in spot gold prices, which fell by 6.3% on October 21, is seen as a temporary setback, with strong underlying supply and demand dynamics expected to support future price increases [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Lombard Odier's global forex strategist and investment strategy head indicate that despite the short-term overbought conditions in gold, the fundamental supply-demand momentum remains strong [1] - The report highlights that central banks are likely to create a higher price floor for gold, driven by concerns over U.S. financial sanctions, escalating geopolitical risks, and unpredictable tariff policies from the Trump administration [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The overall economic and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to continue to favor increased demand for gold [1] - Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target from $3,900 per ounce to $4,600 per ounce, reflecting a bullish outlook on gold prices [1]

Core Points - The article discusses the recent escalation of tensions between China and the U.S. following the Madrid economic talks, highlighting the rapid implementation of U.S. measures against China and China's subsequent countermeasures. [1][2] - It emphasizes that the current conflict is not a result of misjudgment but a clear understanding of interests from both sides, with China prepared to defend its position against U.S. unilateral actions. [1][2] Group 1 - The U.S. has introduced 20 measures against China in just over 20 days, including export control lists that affect thousands of Chinese companies and new port fees for Chinese shipbuilding. [2][3] - China's countermeasures are coordinated across multiple departments, indicating a structured response framework that includes actions like rare earth export controls and investigations into U.S. companies. [3][4] - The article notes that while the number of countermeasures is fewer than in April, they continue to follow a similar framework, targeting the entire rare earth supply chain and involving antitrust investigations. [3][6] Group 2 - The countermeasures are described as more precise, reflecting U.S. regulatory practices, such as stringent approval processes for products containing rare earth elements. [6][7] - The article highlights the strategic nature of these measures, which not only respond to U.S. actions but also set new rules and standards that could impact U.S. companies operating in China. [6][7] - China's response also extends to foreign companies that support U.S. actions, signaling a broader strategy to deter collaboration with the U.S. against Chinese interests. [8][9] Group 3 - The article suggests that the current U.S. administration's chaotic approach to trade and sanctions has created opportunities for China to assert its position more effectively. [9][10] - It points out that the U.S. is struggling to formulate a coherent counter-strategy, leading to a perception of disarray within the U.S. government. [10][13] - The ongoing tensions are framed as part of a larger, long-term struggle against U.S. hegemony, with China needing to prepare for a sustained conflict. [15][19] Group 4 - The article concludes with a call for China to enhance its counter-sanction capabilities, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive legal framework and better coordination among various government departments. [26][28] - It advocates for the development of a robust response system that can effectively address the challenges posed by U.S. sanctions and trade measures. [26][30] - The need for a strategic approach to international relations and trade is underscored, with an emphasis on building alliances and enhancing China's global economic presence. [34][36]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is planning to utilize the frozen Russian assets, amounting to €210 billion, to support Ukraine's ongoing resistance against Russia, effectively turning these assets into a financial lifeline for Ukraine over the next five years [2][10]. Group 1: Initial Actions - The initial phase involves the EU intercepting the annual interest income generated from the frozen Russian assets, which amounts to several billion euros, to fund Ukraine's infrastructure rebuilding and social support [3]. - Moscow is left powerless as its accounts are locked, unable to access or utilize these funds [3]. Group 2: Debt Issuance Strategy - The EU plans to issue €140 billion in "reconstruction bonds" backed by the frozen assets, with the intention of using the funds to procure military supplies and support government salaries in Ukraine [4]. - This strategy effectively places the financial burden of the war on Russia, as the debt will be recorded against Russian assets [4]. Group 3: Legal and Political Implications - The process raises significant legal questions regarding whether the operation constitutes a "guarantee" or "de facto confiscation," with potential repercussions for European nations if Russia wins a legal challenge [7]. - Concerns have been voiced by smaller nations like Belgium and Luxembourg about the precedent this sets for future financial interactions and the potential risks involved [5][7]. Group 4: G7 Sanctions and Financial Dynamics - The G7 has intensified sanctions against Russia, targeting key revenue streams such as oil and military supply chains, further constraining Russia's financial capabilities [8][10]. - The design of this financial strategy creates a closed loop where frozen assets continuously fund Ukraine, alleviating the need for direct financial support from European taxpayers [10]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The issuance of the €140 billion bonds raises questions about market acceptance and the potential risks for investors if Russia refuses to acknowledge the debt [11]. - The outcome of this financial maneuvering could either lead to a historic case of financial strategy or result in a crisis for Europe if Russia retaliates against the asset freeze [11].