1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The marginal impact of the macro - environment on the steel industry is weakening, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as the basis season charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil 01 contracts in Shanghai [9][10][12]. - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 01 - 05 contract spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and the spread between the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar [14][15][16]. - **Profit**: The report shows the 01 - contract disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil [22]. - **Production**: Statistics on monthly pig iron and crude steel production, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces are provided [24][25][34]. - **Import and Export**: Data on steel and billet import quantities, steel and billet export quantities, and the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot - rolled coils are presented [36][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Information on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel products, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area, is included [44][51]. 2.2 November Market Outlook - Although no specific outlook content is provided, the report is expected to analyze the market trend of the steel industry in November based on the previous fundamental data. 2.3 Macroeconomic and Downstream Industry Indicators - **Financial Indicators**: Data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and the loan demand index for infrastructure are presented [74][93]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: Information on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, monthly year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area, and new housing starts area is provided [76][81]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: Data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, monthly year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment, and cement direct - supply volume for infrastructure are presented [96][99]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: Information on the performance of various sub - items of the PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and monthly year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is provided [105][108]. - **Downstream Industry Production**: Data on the monthly production of automobiles, civil steel ships, excavators, metal containers, refrigerators, and air conditioners are presented [119][125].

Core Viewpoint - The average steel price in China has decreased year-on-year during the first three quarters, indicating a sustained low price environment in the steel industry [1] Industry Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 93.6 points in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.64% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the majority of steel products' prices remain stable compared to October, with some varieties experiencing price increases due to high steel production and inventory levels, leading to a relaxed supply-demand situation that hinders sustained price recovery [1][2] - The prices of various steel products such as thick plates, hot-rolled coils, and cold-rolled products remain unchanged from October, while hot-dip galvanized and electro-galvanized steel prices have increased by 100 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic consumption is currently stable, with potential for increased orders in seasonal consumption sectors, although demand for construction steel is constrained by financial and emotional factors [1][2] Group 2 - Steel production remains at a certain scale, with stable orders for specialty steel, but the overall price recovery of steel is limited due to pressure from common materials [2] - Overseas retail and manufacturing consumption is holding up, with liquidity from interest rate cuts promoting investment and consumption, providing a supportive backdrop for domestic steel prices [2] - The adjustment of steel prices by major steel enterprises for November is primarily to address the high production levels and increasing inventory, with a focus on the specialty steel market moving forward [2]

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the steel industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The current week saw a good recovery in the apparent demand for the five major steel products, approaching last year's levels, but the off - balance sheet demand for steel is lower year - on - year. The inventory of plates is high, and there are expectations of blast furnace production cuts in Tangshan. If the production cuts can relieve the inventory pressure of plates, steel prices are expected to stabilize. The carbon element cost at the cost end is supportive, and iron ore is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, which may lead to an expansion of the ratio of steel to ore. Steel prices have fallen significantly previously, and steel mill profits have declined. Before the plate inventory is relieved, steel mill profits will continue to decline, suppressing production release. The January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to stabilize around 3,000 and 3,200 yuan respectively and then enter a sideways consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, continue to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and gradually exit the short position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Steel mill profits will continue to converge before the steel production and inventory are cleared [2]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of steel products in different regions and processes showed different trends. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 28 yuan/ton [2]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The rebar output increased by 5.9 to 207.1 tons, an increase of 2.9% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.3 to 414.9 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [2]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.4 to 9.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7 tons, an increase of 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.3 to 226.0 tons, an increase of 2.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 11.2 to 326.7 tons, an increase of 3.5% [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the iron ore industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, iron ore futures bottomed out and stabilized. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to first decrease and then increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, pig iron production decreased from a high level, and the steel mills' demand for restocking weakened. The steel production decreased slightly, the apparent demand increased, the inventory decreased, and the post - holiday demand gradually recovered but was lower than expected. The port inventory increased, the port handling volume decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory increased, increasing the inventory pressure. Looking forward, due to the weak operation of steel prices, the weak demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. The iron ore market is changing from balanced and tight to loose, and the weak performance of finished products will drag down raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, with the reference range of 750 - 800, and the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly declined. The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts decreased by 5.5 to 824.9 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5 [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 526.4 to 2519.4 tons, a decrease of 17.3%. The global weekly shipment volume increased by 126.0 to 3333.5 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, an increase of 10.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily port handling volume of 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7 tons, a decrease of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 5.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 5.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port inventory increased by 54.7 to 14423.59 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The weekly imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the coke and coking coal industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, coke futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot market's rhythm was inconsistent with the futures market. The mainstream coke enterprises' second - round price increase was implemented, and there is still a possibility of further price increases. The coking coal price rebounded from the bottom, providing cost support, but the coking enterprises' losses led to a decline in production. The steel mill's pig iron output decreased from a high level, steel prices were weak, and downstream demand was not strong during the peak season. The coking plant and steel mill inventories decreased, while the port inventory increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly. Recently, the production reduction in the Mongolian coal pithead and the increase in Shanxi's auction prices have led to concerns about supply, causing coal and coke to rebound from the bottom. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the reference range of 1650 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Last week, coking coal futures rose strongly, and the spot auction prices in Shanxi were strong. The Mongolian coal quotation continued to rise. After a slight decline in the domestic coking coal market after the holiday, it began to rebound, and downstream procurement and restocking increased. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia reduced production. The imported Mongolian coal's customs clearance volume decreased, and the Mongolian coal quotation was strong. The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decline, and there was a restocking demand after significant inventory reduction after the holiday. The coal mine, coal washery, and steel mill inventories decreased, while the coking plant, port, and port - side inventories increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short - term, with the reference range of 1150 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the price of the coke 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1758 yuan/ton, and the price of the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 10 to 1249 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The weekly raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.9 to 848.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8%, and the weekly clean coal output decreased by 4.7 to 433.5 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [8]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory remained unchanged at 891.9 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.4 to 58.6 tons, an increase of 2.4%, the steel mill's coke inventory decreased by 6.3 to 633.2 tons, a decrease of 1.0%, and the port inventory increased by 4.9 to 200.1 tons, an increase of 2.5% [8]. The Fenwei coal mine's clean coal inventory decreased by 9.9 to 90.3 tons, a decrease of 9.9%. The all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory increased by 32.3 to 1029.7 tons, an increase of 3.2%, the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased by 5.4 to 783.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%, and the port inventory increased by 2.9 to 275.7 tons, an increase of 1.1% [8].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support, but demand pressure persists. The market needs more driving factors to break the current situation. Suggestions include maintaining a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trades, holding long positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: Total steel production is starting to decline. The daily average of hot - metal from 247 blast furnaces has dropped below 240 million tons, and the overall steel production has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel is 51 million tons [4]. - **Demand**: The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking. Although demand has improved with the cooling weather, downstream construction sites face difficulties in payment collection, and the number of projects on hand in the fourth quarter has declined. The real - estate demand is weak, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, though it has improved. The automobile industry shows strong growth but may face a decline in demand later, and the production of white goods in October is expected to decrease [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel products are generally in the process of destocking. Rebar has seen a faster destocking rate, and hot - rolled coil has also started to destock [4]. - **Outlook**: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support due to factors such as rising coal prices, but demand pressure persists. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The summary price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm general coil) in Shanghai is 3310 yuan/ton (+40), and the summary price of rebar (HRB400: 20mm) in Shanghai is 3240 yuan/ton (-). The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3200 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of rebar in Beijing is 3170 yuan/ton (+10) [11]. - **Profit**: Short - process steelmaking profits have increased, but there is a slight reduction in production. Long - process steelmaking is still in a loss state, but the loss has been slightly reduced. The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace is - 231.69 yuan (+15.3), and the off - peak electricity profit is - 67 yuan (+15) [4][26]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Real - Estate Data**: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 18.9%. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing also declined [28]. - **Industrial Production Data**: In September 2025, China's crude steel production decreased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the production of some industrial products such as air conditioners, refrigerators, etc., showed different trends of increase or decrease [28]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the growth rates of real - estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment all declined [34]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 239.9 million tons (-1.05), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 33% (-0.2). The small - sample output of rebar is 207.07 million tons (+5.91), and the small - sample output of hot - rolled coil is 322.46 million tons (+0.62) [4][57]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 226.01 million tons (+8.58), and the small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 326.73 million tons (+10.39). The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking, but the demand pressure is still high [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory has decreased by 18.59 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 0.93 million tons. The overall steel inventory has decreased by 27.41 million tons [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The investment growth rate of the steel industry has declined across the board, leading to an increased expectation of policy easing. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the weakness on the demand side being more evident. It is expected that the short - term steel plate will fluctuate within a narrow range [4][166][167] - For iron ore, the molten iron output continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the demand situation of steel products [169] Summary by Directory Steel Products Price - This week, black - series commodities rose across the board, with coking coal and coke prices leading the increase. The increase of rebar prices was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. In the international market, hot - rolled coil prices in the US, EU, Japan, and India decreased slightly, while most other markets showed a stable - to - rising trend. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as various price spreads, changed to different extents [6][7] Supply - In August, the daily average output of crude steel and pig iron continued to decline. In the current week, the weekly output of rebar decreased, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products decreased. The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output increased slightly, while the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate decreased [42][50][66] Demand - In August, the investment growth rate in the real estate and infrastructure sectors continued to decline, while the growth rate of automobile sales increased, and the growth rate of excavator sales decreased. The national building materials trading volume, cement mill operating rate, and rebar apparent demand increased, while the hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased [81][88][92] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 137.51 million tons. The total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 184.82 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.67 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.74 million tons [124][129][142] Profit - This week, the on - screen profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed, the profits of long - process steelmaking increased, and the losses of short - process steel mills widened [149][151] Trading Data - This week, the positions and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, while the trading volume decreased slightly [152] Options - Data on rebar options, including historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes, are presented [156][160] Iron Ore Price - This week, the on - screen price of iron ore increased, and the closing price of the main contract i2601 was 807.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices at ports showed mixed trends, with the spread between high - and medium - grade ores widening and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowing [171][177][182] Supply - The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 860,000 tons compared with the previous period [170] Demand - The molten iron output increased to 2.4102 million tons, and the pig iron output in August was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [170] Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 744,400 tons compared with the previous period. The steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons, and the consumption ratio of imported ore inventory was 31.2 [170] Profit - The profits of long - process rebar production increased, while the profits of short - process steel mills continued to decline [170]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are following the strength of coking coal, mainly trading on the expectations of coal industry production cuts and over - production checks. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Currently, pricing is affected by both weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Steel prices are supported by the high - level steel mill production from September to October, which boosts raw material demand, and the expected coal supply situation. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to recover upwards. The pressure level for rebar is around 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is around 3500 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly rebounded, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, mainly due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports, which is an expected data change. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined. After major events ended, the hot metal production increased significantly last week, and the steel mill restocking demand has increased. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but it is still insufficient in the peak season, and raw materials are stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory has increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, since the steel mill's profit margin is still relatively high, hot metal production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Strategically, iron ore is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range of 780 - 850, and it is advisable to buy the iron ore 2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the current and futures prices. The second round of price cuts by steel mills on coke spot has been implemented, and the port trade quotes have followed the decline. On the supply side, due to the previous 7 - round price increases in coke, the coking profit has increased. After 2 rounds of price cuts, coking still has profits, and northern coke enterprises have rapidly resumed production. On the demand side, steel mills have resumed production this week, hot metal production has increased significantly, and downstream demand is still supported. In terms of inventory, the coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, while the port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coke and coking coal in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. With the improvement of coking profit and the lifting of production restrictions, the coke production, supply, and logistics transportation have recovered. It is temporarily expected that there is room for 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Since the expected decline range is not large, the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the steel industry's policies to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts, as well as the market fluctuations of steel and whether the peak season expectations are fulfilled. It is recommended to buy the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between the current and futures prices. The spot auction prices are stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes have rebounded following the futures. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it will take time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main producing area coal mines have gradually resumed production as expected, logistics transportation has recovered, and coal mines have sold at reduced prices, resulting in a certain improvement in sales. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. On the demand side, hot metal production has increased significantly this week, and coking operations have also increased rapidly. The impact of environmental protection restrictions has been lifted. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills have reduced their inventories, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports have slightly increased their inventories, and the overall inventory has slightly decreased at a medium level. After 2 rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders have started to buy in advance, and the trading volume has improved slightly. The market generally expects a limited decline space, and the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. There is restocking demand before the National Day. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Rebar futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3205 yuan/ton, 3045 yuan/ton, and 3136 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 16 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3410 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3374 yuan/ton, 3398 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 6 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 6 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 3010 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar is 3311 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coils is 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China hot - rolled coils is 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The profit of East China rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of North China rebar is - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.6 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 857.2 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons or - 0.4% compared with the previous value. Rebar production is 211.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value, including a decrease of 3.6 tons or - 11.7% in electric - arc furnace production and a decrease of 3.1 tons or - 1.7% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production is 325.1 tons, an increase of 10.9 tons or 3.5% compared with the previous value [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products is 1514.6 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value. Rebar inventory is 653.9 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 373.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or - 0.3% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials transaction volume is 11.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 843.3 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 198.1 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 326.2 tons, an increase of 20.8 tons or 6.8% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 828.6 yuan/ton, 837.0 yuan/ton, 833.0 yuan/ton, and 847.8 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines has increased by 20.0 yuan/ton, 14.5 yuan/ton, 14.6 yuan/ton, and 15.7 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 39.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 906.0 yuan/ton, 789.0 yuan/ton, 811.0 yuan/ton, and 745.0 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, and 4.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.3 dollars/ton; the Platts 62% Fe price is 106.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons or - 3.5% compared with the previous value; the global shipment volume (weekly) is 3573.1 tons, an increase of 816.9 tons or 29.6% compared with the previous value; the national monthly import volume is 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 131.5 tons or - 1.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value; the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 337.3 tons, an increase of 13.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value; the national monthly pig iron production is 6979.0 tons, a decrease of 100.7 tons or - 1.4% compared with the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production is 7737.0 tons, a decrease of 228.8 tons or - 2.9% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13849.47 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8993.1 tons, an increase of 53.2 tons or 0.6% compared with the previous value; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, a decrease of 1.0 days or - 4.8% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the warehouse - receipt price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1538 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1689 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke 05 contract price is 1828 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread is - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 1099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1188 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton [6]. - The coking coal 05 contract price is 1285 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton; the 05 - contract basis is - 186 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread is - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Demand - **Coke Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.14% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coke Demand**: The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.8 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines is 867 tons, an increase of 43.8 tons or 5.4% compared with the previous value; the clean coal production is 442.5 tons, an increase of 23.3 tons or 5.6% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 906.2 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 67.8 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons or 2.0% compared with the previous value; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 633.3 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons or 1.5% compared with the previous value; the port inventory is 205.1 tons, an

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil is accumulating too quickly, and steel prices are fluctuating and correcting [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,047 yuan/ton and 3,310 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of -0.49% and -0.48%. The trading volumes were 244,899 lots and 124,871 lots, and the positions were 807,407 lots and 546,834 lots, with position changes of -52,001 lots and -27,387 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai and Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hangzhou and Guangzhou remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in other regions remained unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 18 yuan/ton, while that of HC2510 increased by 10 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510, HC2601 - RB2601, and the spot coil-to-rebar spread changed by 6 yuan/ton, -5 yuan/ton, -18 yuan/ton, -7 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Export Data**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, a slight increase of 1.6% from the previous month, with an average export price of 702.2 US dollars/ton, a slight increase of 2.2% from the previous month. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 6798.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and the average export price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [2] - **Weekly Data on August 28**: In terms of production, rebar increased by 5.91 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.5 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 6.55 million tons. In terms of inventory, rebar increased by 16.35 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.02 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 26.84 million tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 9.41 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.55 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 4.78 million tons [2][3] - **Mid - August Data**: In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2115 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 211.5 million tons, a daily increase of 2.0%; 1924 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 192.4 million tons, a daily increase of 0.5%; 2049 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 204.9 million tons, a daily increase of 2.2%. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 1567 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous ten - day period [3] - **Other Data**: The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83%. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [2][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices rose again, with the spread between the 10 - 1 contract of rebar falling and that of hot - rolled coil strengthening. The spread between coil and rebar is expected to decline from its high. The overall apparent demand showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding last week but remained at an off - season level. Steel is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to try long positions, with reference levels of 3140 yuan for hot - rolled coil and 3380 yuan for rebar [1] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3280 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton. The 10 - 1 spread of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased [1] - **Cost and Profit**: Costs and profits of different steel - making processes and regions changed. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased from 117 to - 41 [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%). The output of five major steel products was 878.1 million tons, an increase of 6.4 million tons (0.7%) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased from 1416.0 million tons to 1441.0 million tons, a rise of 25.1 million tons (1.8%) [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased from 9.4 to 11.1, a rise of 1.7 (18.3%). The apparent demand of five major steel products increased from 831.0 million tons to 853.0 million tons, a rise of 22.0 million tons (2.6%) [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 contract of iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. The global shipment volume of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rebound. The short - term demand is bearish, but after the military parade, the resumption of steel mills' production will support raw materials. It is recommended to switch to long positions on dips and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the basis of the 01 contract for different powders also changed significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased from 23.9 to 40.1, a rise of 16.3 (68.3%) [3] - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2393.3 million tons, a decrease of 83.3 million tons (- 3.4%); the global weekly shipment volume was 3315.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.8 million tons (- 2.7%) [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 325.7 million tons, a decrease of 8.9 million tons (- 2.7%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased from 13856.40 million tons to 13845.20 million tons, a decrease of 11.2 million tons (- 0.1%); the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased from 9136.4 million tons to 9065.5 million tons, a decrease of 70.9 million tons (- 0.8%) [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coke futures showed a strong rebound, and the coking coal futures also rebounded strongly. The seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. The supply and demand of coke are expected to be tight, and the downstream steel mills still have restocking needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke on dips and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, due to factors such as limited production expectations, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal on dips and the same arbitrage strategy [5] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts and their spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1679 yuan/ton to 1736 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.4%; the 09 - 01 spread of coke decreased from - 52 to - 84 [5] - **Supply**: The weekly output of coke and coking coal showed different trends. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.1%); the weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines was 860.4 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million tons (0.4%) [5] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%). The coking plants' demand for coking coal increased slightly [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke and coking coal in different sectors changed. The total coke inventory increased from 887.4 million tons to 888.6 million tons, a rise of 1.2 million tons (0.1%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased from 976.9 million tons to 966.4 million tons, a decrease of 10.5 million tons (- 1.1%) [5]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The black market continues to be weak with a double - top pattern in technical form. Steel production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production restrictions in mid - to - late August, which is beneficial for alleviating the pressure on the peak season. Prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, waiting for clear peak - season demand. Pay attention to the support levels of around 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3360 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3331 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased from 3470 yuan/ton to 3450 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3461 yuan/ton to 3433 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3060 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with East China's profit dropping by 44 yuan to 226 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.2 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.7 to 220.5, a 0.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6, a 0.2% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, a 1.7% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a 1.9% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, a 2.5% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 8.4, an 8.2% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.7 to 831.0, a 1.7% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.9 to 189.9, a 9.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.5 to 314.8, a 2.8% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 - contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. Global iron ore shipments and 45 - port arrivals decreased. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, and pig iron output has slightly decreased from its high level. Port inventories have slightly increased, and the shipping volume has decreased. In the future, pig iron output in August will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for single - side trading, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, such as the cost of Carajás fines dropping from 808.8 yuan/ton to 797.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.5 to - 38.0, a 20.6% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.5 to 16.0, a 52.4% increase [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore types decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines dropped from 888.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased from 784.0 yuan/ton to 771.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 125.9 to 2381.9, a 5.0% decrease, and the global shipments decreased by 15.1 to 3046.7, a 0.5% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The 45 - port daily average shipping volume increased by 19.1 to 321, a 6.3% increase. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a 3.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 93.8 to 13806.08, a 0.7% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3, a 0.0% increase, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coke futures showed a peak - and - decline trend, and there was a sixth - round price increase in the spot market, with a possibility of further increases. Coking plant profits have improved, and production has slightly increased. Pig iron output is expected to slightly decline in August. There is an expectation of a seventh - round price increase, but previous positive expectations may be over - priced. For coking coal, the futures price has declined after reaching a peak, and the spot market is generally stable. Supply has decreased, and demand has slowed down. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for speculation, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 52 to 1347, a 3.9% increase, while the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 20 to 1460, a 1.4% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coke decreased by 24 to 1660, a 1.4% decrease [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1260, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) increased by 26 to 1191, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 35 to 1066, a 3.14% decrease [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.3 to 856.6, a 0.3% decrease, and the clean coal output increased by 0.4 to 439.4, a 0.1% increase [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.7, a 0.2% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4, a 2.24% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5, a 10.4% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8, a 1.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9, a 0.1% decrease, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9, a 1.1% decrease [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 4.7 to - 4.3, a 9.4% decrease [5].