| 钢材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | 2025年8月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | 品种 | 前值 | 某差 | 现值 | 狱跌 | 单位 | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 30 | 86 | 3310 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3270 | 3280 | 56 | 10 | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3420 | 3390 | 30 | 196 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3261 | 3230 | Ad | 31 | | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3138 | 3119 | 10 | 172 | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3224 | 3195 | 29 | 86 | | | | 元/吨 | 热卷现货(华东) | ਟੇਤੋ | 3430 | 3400 | 30 | ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The black market continues to be weak with a double - top pattern in technical form. Steel production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production restrictions in mid - to - late August, which is beneficial for alleviating the pressure on the peak season. Prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, waiting for clear peak - season demand. Pay attention to the support levels of around 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3360 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3331 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased from 3470 yuan/ton to 3450 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3461 yuan/ton to 3433 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3060 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with East China's profit dropping by 44 yuan to 226 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.2 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.7 to 220.5, a 0.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6, a 0.2% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, a 1.7% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a 1.9% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, a 2.5% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 8.4, an 8.2% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.7 to 831.0, a 1.7% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.9 to 189.9, a 9.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.5 to 314.8, a 2.8% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 - contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. Global iron ore shipments and 45 - port arrivals decreased. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, and pig iron output has slightly decreased from its high level. Port inventories have slightly increased, and the shipping volume has decreased. In the future, pig iron output in August will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for single - side trading, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, such as the cost of Carajás fines dropping from 808.8 yuan/ton to 797.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.5 to - 38.0, a 20.6% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.5 to 16.0, a 52.4% increase [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore types decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines dropped from 888.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased from 784.0 yuan/ton to 771.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 125.9 to 2381.9, a 5.0% decrease, and the global shipments decreased by 15.1 to 3046.7, a 0.5% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The 45 - port daily average shipping volume increased by 19.1 to 321, a 6.3% increase. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a 3.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 93.8 to 13806.08, a 0.7% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3, a 0.0% increase, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coke futures showed a peak - and - decline trend, and there was a sixth - round price increase in the spot market, with a possibility of further increases. Coking plant profits have improved, and production has slightly increased. Pig iron output is expected to slightly decline in August. There is an expectation of a seventh - round price increase, but previous positive expectations may be over - priced. For coking coal, the futures price has declined after reaching a peak, and the spot market is generally stable. Supply has decreased, and demand has slowed down. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for speculation, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 52 to 1347, a 3.9% increase, while the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 20 to 1460, a 1.4% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coke decreased by 24 to 1660, a 1.4% decrease [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1260, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) increased by 26 to 1191, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 35 to 1066, a 3.14% decrease [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.3 to 856.6, a 0.3% decrease, and the clean coal output increased by 0.4 to 439.4, a 0.1% increase [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.7, a 0.2% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4, a 2.24% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5, a 10.4% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8, a 1.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9, a 0.1% decrease, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9, a 1.1% decrease [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 4.7 to - 4.3, a 9.4% decrease [5].

Report Overview - The report is a steel morning report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on August 15, 2025, covering aspects such as spot prices, price and profit, production and inventory, basis and spreads [1] Spot Prices Rebar - Spot prices of rebar in different regions (Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, Wuhan) showed varying degrees of decline from August 8 to August 14, with decreases ranging from 20 to 70 yuan [1] Hot - Rolled Coils - For hot - rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong, the price changes were relatively small, with 0 yuan in Tianjin, - 20 yuan in Shanghai, and - 10 yuan in Lecong from August 8 to August 14 [1] Cold - Rolled Coils - Cold - rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong also had price fluctuations, with a decrease of 70 yuan in Tianjin, 0 yuan in Shanghai, and - 30 yuan in Lecong from August 8 to August 14 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Steel prices have strengthened again, with clear support levels for rebar and hot-rolled coils. Social inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks due to positive arbitrage by futures-spot traders. Steel mills have few overstocked products as inventory has shifted from mills to traders. There are expectations of production restrictions in mid-to-late August. Short-term inventory pressure is not high, but off-season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the rollover period, and the price of the October contract may fluctuate at high levels. It is advisable to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile upward trend. Globally, iron ore shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased. On the demand side, steel mills' profit margins are at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in maintenance volume and a slight decline in molten iron production, which remains at around 240,000 tons per day. Steel exports remain strong, maintaining short-term resilience in molten iron production. Terminal demand shows strong performance during the off-season but weakens month-on-month. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventory has increased month-on-month. It is expected that molten iron production in August will remain high, with an average daily output of around 236,000 tons. Steel mills' improving profits support raw materials. There are also new supply-side policy expectations and production restriction expectations for Hebei steel mills before the September 3rd parade. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal futures showed a volatile upward trend, with intense price fluctuations recently. Spot auction prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and Mongolian coal prices are stable with an increase. The fifth round of coke price increases has been officially implemented, and the sixth round of price increases has been initiated. On the supply side, coal mine production has decreased month-on-month, and the market remains in short supply. Imported coal prices have rebounded this week after falling last week, and downstream users continue to replenish their inventories. On the demand side, coking plant operations are stable, and the high-level molten iron production of blast furnaces has slightly declined, with continuous downstream replenishment demand. It is expected that molten iron production in August will continue to decline slightly. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventory continues to decrease, port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mill inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices have increased, with different price levels and changes in different regions and contracts. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China is 3,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs has changed, and the profit of steel products has generally decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot-rolled coils has decreased by 23 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron production has slightly decreased, while the production of five major steel products has increased. Rebar production has increased significantly, with a 4.8% increase, and hot-rolled coil production has decreased by 2.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has increased by 1.7%, the rebar inventory has increased by 1.9%, and the hot-rolled coil inventory has increased by 2.5% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume has decreased by 3.5%, the apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar has increased by 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased by 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have increased, and the basis of the 09 contract has changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder has increased by 8.8 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract of PB powder has increased by 2.3 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrivals at 45 ports have decreased by 5.0%, and the global weekly shipments have decreased by 0.5%. The monthly national import volume has increased by 8.0% [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.2%, the weekly average daily port clearance volume has increased by 6.3%, the monthly national pig iron production has decreased by 3.0%, and the monthly national crude steel production has decreased by 3.9% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory has decreased by 0.2%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.0%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills have decreased by 4.8% [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures have increased, and the basis and spreads have changed. For example, the 09 contract of coking coal has increased by 37 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal has changed from -158 to -150 [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of coke has increased slightly, and the production of sample coal mines has decreased. For example, the daily average production of all-sample coking plants has increased by 0.3% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly molten iron production of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.2%, and the demand for coke remains supported [7]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventory has generally decreased, and coking coal inventory has changed differently. For example, the total coke inventory has decreased by 0.9%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants has decreased by 0.5% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished steel products continue to show a strong trend. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. The start - up of the Medog Hydropower Station has boosted market expectations for future demand for building materials. In the short term, there are expectations of production capacity reduction on the supply side and demand is stimulated by large - scale infrastructure projects. With low inventory levels, steel prices may have a basis for continuous increase. The notice on coal production verification has also driven up coal prices, further supporting steel prices. Currently, the market is more influenced by policies and sentiment than by fundamentals [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - side**: This week, the total output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a slight decrease from last week. The blast furnace profit in East China remained around 220 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit increased significantly [7]. - **Demand - side**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The demand showed a slight recovery but remained weak overall [7]. - **Imports and Exports**: 155,000 tons of steel billets were imported in June [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The rebar inventory continued to decline [8]. - **Profit**: The pig iron cost was 2540 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was 256 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 33 yuan/ton. The profitability of steel mills continued to rise, and their production willingness was strong [8]. - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse receipt basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 1.6% [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy was recommended [11]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: The 01 - contract basis was - 103 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 128 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 44 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 25 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was 84 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 59 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Spreads**: Beijing's coil - rebar spread was 150 yuan/ton (last week: 180 yuan/ton), Shanghai's was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), and Guangzhou's was 0 yuan/ton (last week: - 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 60 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 22 yuan/ton (last week: 22 yuan/ton). Beijing's premium for spiral rebar was 130 yuan/ton, Shanghai's was 180 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou's was 190 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week [27][30][33]. - **Prices and Ratios**: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3240 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Beijing was 3340 yuan/ton. The FOB export price of Chinese rebar was 452 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import prices in Southeast Asia, the US, the EU, and the Middle East were 460, 995, 605, and 610 US dollars/ton respectively. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 871 yuan/ton [36][39]. 3.3 Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton from last week. The blast furnace profit of rebar was 256 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week. The scrap steel arrival price was 2242 yuan/ton, the pig iron cost was 3358 yuan/ton, and the average pig iron cost of 64 steel mills was 2540 yuan/ton [42][50]. 3.4 Supply - side - **Weekly Output**: The total weekly output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [54]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91% (unchanged from last week), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55%, a week - on - week increase from 52% [57]. - **Pig Iron Output**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.42 million tons, the same as last week [61]. - **Regional Output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 500,000 tons (last week: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 740,000 tons (last week: 770,000 tons). In the East China region, it was 880,000 tons, including 340,000 tons in Jiangsu, 80,000 tons in Shandong, and 210,000 tons in Anhui. In Guangdong, it was 200,000 tons, and in Guangxi, it was 60,000 tons [65][68][71]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Building Material Transactions**: The weekly average building material transactions of 237 national distributors were 117,741 tons (last week: 105,098 tons), and in Shanghai, it was 16,600 tons (unchanged from last week). The transactions of building steel in different regions are also provided [75]. - **Rebar Consumption**: The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.17 million tons, and in East China, it was 0.84 million tons. In the Southwest, it was 0.3 million tons, and in South China, it was 0.29 million tons. Other regional consumption data are also available [85][87]. - **Related Prices**: The price of P.O42.5 cement in Hangzhou was 470 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 465 yuan/ton [95]. 3.6 Inventory - **Total and Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The steel billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.07 million tons (last week: 1.04 million tons) [8][100]. - **Regional Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 5.47 million tons, in East China was 2.45 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.57 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.17 million tons. Other regional inventory data are also provided [103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market of coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term. Although the raw coal inventory of coking and steel enterprises is low and there is some procurement, the decline in hot metal during the off - season of finished products affects market sentiment, and some enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw coal [2]. - The supply of coking coal is difficult to increase, and the hot metal output is rising, but the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises has slowed down, and steel prices are weak [4]. - The supply - demand pattern of coke is improving. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, the entry of some speculative traders, and the increase in procurement by steel mills, the inventory of coke in coking enterprises has decreased significantly, and the cost support has been strengthened. It is expected to remain stable in the short - term [5]. - The increase in hot metal output and blast furnace operating rate are positive factors for coke, while the compression of steel mill profit margins and the partial over - consumption of replenishment demand are negative factors [7]. Summary by Directory Daily Views of Coking Coal - Fundamental: Some coal mines stopped production due to accidents and relocation, and the rest were operating normally. With downstream replenishment, the market trading atmosphere improved, and the inventory in production areas decreased. However, coking enterprises were cautious in purchasing raw coal due to poor profits, and the market remained stable [2]. - Basis: The spot market price was 940, and the basis was 100.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory was 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week, including 774 million tons in steel mills, 312 million tons in ports, and 669.5 million tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line was upward, and the price was above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main position: The main position of coking coal was net short, and short positions increased [2]. - Expectation: The raw coal inventory in coking and steel enterprises was at a low level, and there was appropriate procurement. However, the decline in hot metal during the off - season of finished products affected market sentiment, and it was expected that the price of coking coal would remain stable in the short - term [2]. Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Positive: Rising hot metal output and difficult supply increase [4]. - Negative: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Daily Views of Coke - Fundamental: The price of coking coal strengthened, compressing the profits of coking enterprises. However, with the entry of some speculative traders and the appropriate replenishment by steel mills, the supply - demand pattern of coke improved [5]. - Basis: The spot market price was 1340, and the basis was - 93, with the spot at a discount to the futures [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory was 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week, including 642.8 million tons in steel mills, 203.1 million tons in ports, and 87.3 million tons in independent coking enterprises [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line was upward, and the price was above the 20 - day line [5]. - Main position: The main position of coke was net short, and short positions decreased [5]. - Expectation: With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, the entry of some speculative traders, and the increase in procurement by steel mills, the inventory of coke in coking enterprises decreased significantly, and the cost support was strengthened. It was expected to remain stable in the short - term [5]. Factors Affecting Coke - Positive: Rising hot metal output and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Negative: Compression of steel mill profit margins and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7]. Price - The price of port metallurgical coke on July 4 (17:30) showed different trends, with some prices decreasing by 10, some remaining unchanged, and the price of first - class metallurgical coke in Qingdao Port increasing by 12 [10]. Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory was 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory was 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - Steel mill inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. Other Data - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide was 74%, the same as last week [35]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39].

Core Insights - Domestic steel prices have decreased during the week of June 16-20, with both long and flat steel price indices showing declines, where the drop in long steel prices was less than that of flat steel prices [1] Price Index Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) for the week was 90.09 points, down 0.40 points week-on-week, a decrease of 0.44%. Compared to the end of last month, it fell by 0.71 points (0.78% decrease), and from the end of last year, it decreased by 7.38 points (7.57% decrease). Year-on-year, it dropped by 14.14 points (13.57% decrease) [1] - The long steel price index was 92 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.39 points (0.42% decrease), a drop of 0.30 points (0.33% decrease) from the end of last month, and a decline of 8.22 points (8.20% decrease) from the end of last year. Year-on-year, it fell by 14.92 points (13.95% decrease) [1] - The flat steel price index was 88.25 points, down 0.45 points week-on-week (0.51% decrease), down 0.94 points (1.05% decrease) from the end of last month, and down 7.30 points (7.64% decrease) from the end of last year. Year-on-year, it decreased by 14.06 points (13.74% decrease) [1] Regional Price Index Summary - All six major regions in China saw a week-on-week decline in steel price indices, with the Northwest region experiencing the largest drop and the Southwest region the smallest. For instance, the North China steel price index was 88.99 points, down 0.44 points (0.49% decrease) week-on-week [2] - The Northeast region's steel price index was 88.77 points, down 0.40 points (0.45% decrease) week-on-week. The East China index was 90.59 points, down 0.43 points (0.47% decrease) week-on-week [2] - The Central South region's index was 91.90 points, down 0.43 points (0.46% decrease) week-on-week, while the Southwest region's index was 90.88 points, down 0.30 points (0.33% decrease) week-on-week. The Northwest region's index was 90.67 points, down 0.59 points (0.65% decrease) week-on-week [2] Price Changes by Product - All eight major steel product prices decreased compared to the end of last month, with the largest drop in cold-rolled sheets and the smallest in rebar. For example, the price of 6mm high wire was 3267 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton (0.24% decrease) [3] - The price of 16mm rebar was 3076 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton (0.19% decrease). The price of 20mm medium-thick plates was 3417 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton (0.73% decrease) [3] - The price of 1mm cold-rolled sheets was 3745 CNY/ton, down 71 CNY/ton (1.86% decrease), while the price of 1mm galvanized sheets was 4146 CNY/ton, down 29 CNY/ton (0.69% decrease) [3] Cost Analysis - In May, the average import price of iron ore was 96.24 USD/ton, down 1.86 USD/ton (1.90% decrease) month-on-month. Compared to the end of last year, it decreased by 1.49 USD/ton (1.52% decrease) [4] - The domestic iron concentrate price was 857 CNY/ton, down 31 CNY/ton (3.49% decrease) from the end of last month. The price of coking coal was 1196 CNY/ton, down 82 CNY/ton (6.42% decrease) [4] - The price of coke was 1216 CNY/ton, down 90 CNY/ton (6.89% decrease), while scrap steel was priced at 2338 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY/ton (0.60% decrease) [4] International Market Overview - In May, the CRU international steel price index was 195.1 points, down 4.5 points (2.3% decrease) month-on-month. Compared to the end of last year, it increased by 14.5 points (8.0% increase) [5] - The CRU long steel price index was 195.6 points, down 1.9 points (1.0% decrease) month-on-month, while the CRU flat steel price index was 194.9 points, down 5.8 points (2.9% decrease) month-on-month [5] - The demand side remains weak due to seasonal effects, indicating that steel prices may continue to experience weak fluctuations in the short term [5]

Group 1 - Report's industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Still treat steel as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [3] Group 3 - From January to May 2025, China exported 471.7 million tons of steel billets, 165.4 million tons of steel bars, and 459.3 million tons of wire rods, with year - on - year increases of 355 million tons, 78 million tons, and 131.6 million tons respectively, a total increase of 565 million tons [2] - On June 23, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from last Friday. The average profit was - 133 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in June will reach 2 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. Among them, new energy retail sales are expected to reach 1.1 million, and the penetration rate will rebound to about 55% [2] - The prices of finished steel products rose and then fell yesterday, with small cross - star candlesticks for rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing little fluctuation. Market drivers are weak, and weak demand still exerts pressure on prices [2] - Later, pay attention to macro policies and downstream demand [3]

6月9日—6月13日当周，国内钢材价格指数环比略有上涨。长材价格指数、板材价格指数均有所上涨， 且长材价格指数涨幅大于板材价格指数涨幅。 从成本端来看，海关总署数据显示，4月份，进口铁矿石均价为98.10美元/吨，环比下降0.40美元/吨， 降幅为0.41%；比2024年12月份均价上涨0.37美元/吨，涨幅为0.38%；同比下降15.02美元/吨，降幅为 13.28%。6月9日—6月13日当周，国内铁精粉价格为863元/吨，比上月末下降25元/吨，降幅为2.82%； 比去年底下降31元/吨，降幅为3.47%；同比下降83元/吨，降幅为8.77%。炼焦煤(十级)价格为1218元/ 吨，比上月末下降60元/吨，降幅为4.69%；比去年底下降348元/吨，降幅为22.22%；同比下降721元/ 吨，降幅为37.19%。焦炭价格为1223元/吨，比上月末下降83元/吨，降幅为6.36%；比去年底下降447元/ 吨，降幅为26.77%；同比下降735元/吨，降幅为37.54%。废钢价格为2336元/吨，比上月末下降16元/ 吨，降幅为0.68%；比去年底下降210元/吨，降幅为8.25%；同比下降471元/吨，降幅为 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The blast furnace has resumed production, and overall steel production has increased. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has risen due to overseas export resilience, while that of rebar has slightly declined. Steel inventories are still being depleted, but the depletion rate of rebar has slowed down. - As the off - season for demand approaches, the apparent demand is expected to continue to weaken. The funds available at downstream construction sites have decreased, leading to a further weakening of building material demand, while the high - frequency data of steel exports have rebounded. - Although the blast furnace output has reached its peak, the blast furnace profit is relatively high, and some blast furnaces may resume production according to the production schedule. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved recently, with a short - term small - scale rebound. - After entering the off - season for demand, contradictions will accumulate, and there is a risk of triggering a negative feedback. Recently, due to the outbreak of overseas geopolitical conflicts, energy prices have generally risen, causing coking coal and coke to continue to rebound. Currently, the market is still trading on the logic of profit contraction, so steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices is downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - **Data Summary** - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 2.1218 million tons (+46,100 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.2545 million tons (+8,000 tons). The daily average of hot metal from 247 blast furnaces was 2.4218 million tons (+5,700 tons). The capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 31.073 yuan/ton. The cost of electric arc furnaces in East China during peak hours was about 3,396 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), with a profit of - 303.18 yuan/ton; during off - peak hours, the cost was about 3,231 yuan/ton (converted to the theoretical price), and the profit of third - tier rebar in East China during off - peak hours was - 138 yuan/ton. The overall steel supply is relatively high [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar this week was 2.1919 million tons (-7,800 tons), and that for small - sample hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons (+108,100 tons). The apparent demand for steel has rebounded. Recently, the availability of funds for downstream housing construction projects has declined, but steel exports have remained highly resilient, leading to an expansion of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. From January to May, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, and the increment of domestic project investment was insufficient. In May, the sales, new construction, and completion areas of housing were all in negative growth, and the decline rate widened. The official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3%. The official manufacturing PMI expanded, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI contracted. In May, China's automobile production increased by 11.67% year - on - year, and exports increased by 22.14% year - on - year. The production growth rate of household appliances slowed down in April, while the production schedule of the three major white goods in June increased by 7.3% year - on - year. The Markit manufacturing PMI data in the US in May was 52.3, a new high since February. The new order index reached a new high since February 2024. The initial jobless claims increased last week. The preliminary value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4, higher than market expectations, a new high in 33 months but still below the break - even line [4]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the mill inventory decreased by 5,700 tons, the social inventory decreased by 64,400 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 70,100 tons. For hot - rolled coils, the mill inventory decreased by 100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 52,300 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 52,400 tons. The mill inventory decreased by 13,000 tons month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 143,700 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 155,700 tons [4]. - **Outlook and Trading Strategies** - **Outlook**: With the arrival of the off - season for demand, the apparent demand will continue to weaken. There is a risk of negative feedback after entering the off - season. Steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend is downward [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - sided**: Steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the short position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and coking coal, and to intervene in the 10 - 01 reverse spread on rallies. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,090 yuan (+10 yuan), and that in Beijing was 3,180 yuan (unchanged). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan (+20 yuan), and that of HBIS hot - rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,110 yuan (unchanged) [13]. - **Profit Situations** - **Long - process Steel Mills**: The cash profit of East China rebar and Tangshan rebar, as well as the cash profit of Tianjin and East China hot - rolled coils, are presented in the report, but specific values are not summarized in text. - **Short - process Steel Mills**: The profit of East China electric arc furnaces during peak hours was - 340.47 yuan (-44.9 yuan), and that during off - peak hours was - 175 yuan (-45 yuan) [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - **Domestic Macroeconomic Data** - In May, China's PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year. - In May, the new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate increased. The new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan. Resident loans increased year - on - year, while enterprise loans still declined year - on - year, but the month - on - month data showed some improvement. The increase in social financing in May mainly came from government bond issuance, and the increase in loans to the real economy hit a new low in recent years. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was +3.7%, with the growth rate decreasing month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year investment in real estate development was - 10.7%, that in manufacturing was +8.5%, and that in infrastructure construction was +10.42%. The growth rates of all three types of investment decreased month - on - month [45]. - **International Macroeconomic Data** - In the US in May, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4%, the monthly rate was 0.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, and the monthly rate was 0.1%. - The US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances starting from June 23 [34]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation - **Supply** - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4218 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 49 electric arc furnaces was 31.7% (-0.3%). - The small - sample production of rebar was 2.1218 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,100 tons. The small - sample production of hot - rolled coils was 3.2545 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [65][69]. - **Demand** - The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 2.1919 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 7%), a month - on - month decrease of 7,800 tons. The small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 2.43%), a month - on - month increase of 108,100 tons. - The funds available at downstream construction sites have decreased, and the demand for building materials has weakened. The export of steel still shows strong resilience, but the export orders of the manufacturing industry may decline starting from July. The subsequent production schedules of the automobile and household appliance industries will decrease, putting pressure on steel demand [72]. - **Inventory** - Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are still being depleted. The total rebar inventory decreased by 70,100 tons, and the total hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 52,400 tons [4].