【逻辑】 昨日期货盘面震荡，主力10合约收1358点，上涨3.74%%。昨日SCFIS欧线大幅下跌，或对市场多头情 绪产生打压。现货端虽CMA平开10月份报价，但是整体现货价格仍在下行，ONE今日继续大幅下调报 价，现货报价的下行将对盘面产生一定压力。 【操作建议】 预计偏弱震荡，10合约空单继续持有。 【现货报价】 截至8月26日最新报价；马士基：1290-1599美元/TEU，2160-2578美元/TEU；CMA 1360-1910美 元/TEU，2320-2920美元/TEU；MSC 1550-1556 美元/TEU，2590-2602 美元/TEU；ONE 1504-1804美 元/TEU，2343美元/TEU；EMC 1605-1805美元/TEU，2410-2760美元/TEU。报价数据近期缓慢下跌。 【集运指数】 截至8月25日，SCFIS欧线指数报1990.2点，环比下跌8.71%，美西线指数环比下跌5.87% 至1041.38点。 截至8月22日，SCFI综合指数报1415.36点，较上期跌3%；上海-欧洲运价下跌8%至1668美元/TEU；上 海-美西运价1644美元/FEU，较上周跌7 ...

南华期货集运周报 分航线来看，SCFI欧洲航线、美西航线和美东航线均继续下行，且降幅扩大。当周期价主要影响因素仍 为欧线现舱报价。当周主流船司9月初现舱报价转升为降，欧线现舱报价降至2500美元以下，再度带降了期货 价格的估值。 对于后市而言，可继续关注船司欧线现舱报价变动和欧线市场基本面。 —— 9月初现货报价转升为降 2025/08/24 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣（Z0021065） 1. 摘要 当周期货标的现货指数上海出口结算运价指数（SCFIS）欧洲航线继续下行，美西航线再度回升。中国 出口集装箱运价指数（CCFI）、上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）和宁波出口集装箱运价指数（NCFI）均 继续下降，降幅略有放宽。 当前欧线现舱报价与SCFI欧线均继续下行，期价整体维持震荡略偏下行的可能性相对较大，整体呈趋势 中继的态势，近月合约可能降至低位后出现短期回调。 2. 策略 期现（基差）策略：交易者宜暂时保持观察。 套利（跨期）策略：可暂时保持观望。 3. 盘面回顾 截至周五，除EC2508外，其余各月合约的收盘价与结算价均有所回落。其中，EC2510收盘价较前一 ...

集运指数（欧线）期货主力涨超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 目前各公司逐步公布9月初报价，已公布报价中枢约$2200/FEU，尤其是通常偏高的OA联盟也已降至 $2200-2300/FEU，加剧市场压力。尽管航司逐步放宽长协订舱限制，且9月上旬供应压力较8月底略有缓 解，跌势或阶段性放缓，但难改整体下行趋势。考虑到9月下旬运力仍维持高位，叠加月末黄金周前揽 收假期滚存货的压力，运价后续仍可能承压下行，继续施压盘面走势。节奏方面，目前各合约主要锚定 10合约估值，而10合约在逐渐贴近成本线后，预计将获得一定成本支撑，因此后续市场大概率延续跟随 现货震荡下行的走势。 8月25日盘中，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1379.4点。截止发稿， 集运指数（欧线）主力合约报1365.5点，涨幅3.13%。 华联期货：现货运价暂未触底，EC盘面易跌难涨 国投安信期货 后续集运市场大概率延续震荡下行走势 华联期货 现货运价暂未触底，EC盘面易跌难涨 国投安信期货：后续集运市场大概率延续震荡下行走势 国内现货指数方面，最新SCFI综合指数环比下跌3.07%，跌幅有所收窄， ...

February | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/8/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合组 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | | EC2508 | | 2127.7 | 0.13 | 52.5 | | 120 | 1968 | -92 | | | EC2510 | | 1309.0 | -1.21 | 871.2 | 25350 | | 54255 | -38 | | | EC2512 | | 1661.2 | -3.50 | 519.0 | 8311 | | 13295 | 1086 | | | EC2602 | | 1465.0 | -3.17 | 715.2 | 1372 | | 4455 | 52 | | 期货 | EC2604 | | 1264.5 | -1.94 | 915.7 | 1364 | | 5836 | 120 | | | EC2606 | | 1430.0 | -2.73 ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收卷价 | 涨跌 (%) 0.09 | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持仓变动 -109 | | 期货 | EC2508 | | | | | 156 | | | | | | EC2510 | | 2125.0 1325.0 | -2.21 | 55.2 855.2 | 35008 | | 2060 54293 | 2566 | | | EC2512 | | 1721.4 | -3.07 | 458.8 | 7519 | | 12209 | ਦਿੱਤੀ ਹੈ | | | EC2602 | | 1513.0 | -1.24 | 667.2 | 1211 | | 4403 | 35 | | | EC2604 | | 1289.5 | -1.89 | 890.7 | 1160 | | 5716 | 89 | | | EC2606 | | 1470.1 | -0.67 | 71 ...

售运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合紅 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2508 | | 2125.0 | 0.09 | 55.2 | | 156 | 2060 | -109 | | | EC2510 | | 1325.0 | -2.21 | 855.2 | 35008 | | 54293 | 2566 | | | EC2512 | | 1721.4 | -3.07 | 458.8 | 7519 | | 12209 | નિકીન | | | EC2602 | | 1513.0 | -1.24 | 667.2 | 1211 | | 4403 | 35 | | | EC2604 | | 1289.5 | -1.89 | 890.7 | 1160 | | 5716 | 89 | | | EC2606 | | 1470.1 | -0.67 | ...

集装箱运输市场日报 —— 长荣9月初报价继续下调 2025/8/21 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 【利空解读】 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1450~1550 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1200~1300 | source： 南华期货 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格先震荡下行，后回归震荡。截至收盘，EC各月合约价格均有所 下行。从交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看，EC2510 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies. This is because the overall situation in September is loose, the subsequent drivers continue to be weak; currently, the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot, and there is still expected to be room for decline; the valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by drivers, and due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 EC Futures Contract Price and Month - spread - **Contract Prices**: On August 21, 2025, the closing prices of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 2123.0, 1355.0, 1775.9, 1532.0, 1314.3, and 1480.0 respectively, with changes of - 0.20%, - 1.12%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.67%, and - 0.82% [2][16] - **Month - spreads**: The month - spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 on the previous day were 768.0, - 420.9, and 243.9 respectively, with daily changes of 11.0, - 16.2, and 4.3 [2][16] 3.2 Shipping Indexes - **SCF (European Line)**: On August 18, 2025, the value was 2180.17, a decrease of 2.47% from the previous period [2][16] - **CCFI**: On August 15, 2025, it was 1790.47 points, a decrease of 0.48% from the previous period [2][16] - **NCFI**: On August 15, 2025, it was 1188.69 points, a decrease of 5.49% from the previous period [2][16] 3.3 Weekly Booking Situation - **Week 34 - 35**: Currently, downstream is booking week 34 - 35 (end of August) positions. The final average price of week 34 was 2850 US dollars (2000 points). The current average quote of week 35 is 2625 US dollars (1840 points), with PA Alliance at 2500 US dollars, MSK at 2300 US dollars, and OA Alliance at 2700 - 2800 US dollars. Fundamentally, MSK is better, OA is average, and PA is worse [2][16] - **Week 35 - 36**: Currently, downstream is booking week 35 - 36 (end of August to early September) positions. The average price of week 35 is 2575 US dollars (1770 points), and that of week 36 is 2400 US dollars (1630 points) [3][17] 3.4 Shipping Capacity - The weekly average shipping capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After planning all TBN sailings to be cancelled, they are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU [2][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate of the container shipping industry continues the downward trend. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, and the decline of the US West route narrowed. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to decline, but the decline converged. For the future market, attention can be paid to the changes in the current cabin quotes of shipping companies on European routes and the fundamentals of the European route market. Considering that the futures price has reached a relatively short - term low, the decline of the futures price may converge or maintain a shock [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and temporarily wait and see in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.盘面回顾 (Market Review) - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded. Among them, the closing price of EC2510 rebounded by 0.84% from the previous week, closing at 1436.0 points; the settlement price rebounded by 1.11%, closing at 1448.0 points. The main influencing factors of the week came from the current cabin quotes of European routes and route adjustments [3]. 4.现货信息 (Spot Information) 4.1 运价 (Freight Rates) - As of August 11, the European route of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS), the futures underlying index, continued to decline, with a month - on - month decline of 0.81% (the previous value was - 3.50%), and the decline of the freight rate on the US West route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 11.99% (the previous value was - 1.37%). As of August 15, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to decline, but the decline converged. In terms of different routes, the decline of North American routes narrowed, the SCFI US West route decreased by 3.51% month - on - month ( - 9.80% in the previous week), the SCFI US East route decreased by 2.61% month - on - month ( - 10.68% in the previous week), and the decline of the SCFI European route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 7.19% ( - 4.39% in the previous week) [8]. 4.2 需求面 (Demand Side) - The content mainly shows the week - on - week and year - on - year changes of the deployed capacity of different routes, as well as the latest shipping regional trade capacity and its month - on - month changes, but no specific summary data is provided [20][22][23]. 4.3 供应端 (Supply Side) - As of August 16, the idle capacity ratio of global container ships was 2.4%; the idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 61,610 TEU, accounting for 1.3% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships from 12,000 to 16,999 TEU was 109,419 TEU, accounting for 1.4% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port decreased by 82.1 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 575.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port increased by 19.0 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 240.8 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port decreased by 13.9 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 84.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 10.6 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 113.6 thousand TEU [27][30]. 5.价差解析 (Spread Analysis) - The current Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, and the month - on - month decline widened to 2.71%, reporting 2235.48 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1408.8 points on Monday. The basis slightly narrowed from the previous week and then slightly widened. The current cabin quotes of mainstream shipping companies on European routes continued to decline, leading the trend of futures prices. As the container shipping market is about to leave the traditional peak season, the support from demand gradually decreases. Based on the current spot freight rate situation, although it has declined significantly, it still maintains a relative level, so the basis is still at a relatively high level compared with the previous period. Traders are advised to temporarily observe [35][37]. - The spreads of the inter - period contract combinations of container shipping European routes in the current week were as follows: the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 710.2 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 320.8 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 389.4 points. Continuing the previous logic, as the 08 contract is about to enter the delivery month, the fluctuation range of the futures price has converged and is generally more stable. The 10 contract declined significantly during the week due to the further decline of the current cabin quotes and the influence of the capital side, resulting in a relatively significant increase in the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination during the week. Traders can temporarily wait and see [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies. This is because the market pattern in September is loose, the subsequent driving forces continue to weaken, the current price of the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot price, and there is still room for decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by driving forces, and due to low positions, they are greatly influenced by macro and capital behaviors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Price and Related Data - **Contract Prices**: EC2508 is 2083.8, EC2512 is 1763.0, EC2510 is 1373.6, EC2602 is 1530.1, EC2604 is 1332.0, and EC2606 is 1487.5. The price changes of EC2510, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 2.30%, 0.57%, - 0.22%, and - 0.50% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volumes and Open Interests**: The trading volume of EC2508 is 31099, and the open interest is 2506 with a change of - 1839. The open interests of EC2512, EC2510, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 11324, 54859, 4438, 5549, and 822 respectively, with changes of 0, 193, 14, 90, and - 13 respectively [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 are 710.2, - 389.4, and 232.9 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 14.2, - 25.6, and 31.0 respectively [2]. Shipping Indexes - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/8/11, the current value is 2235.48, with a month - on - month change of - 2.71% and a week - on - week change of - 0.81% [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1820 dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month change of - 7.19% and a week - on - week change of - 4.39% [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1790.47 points, with a month - on - month change of - 0.48% and a week - on - week change of 0.53% [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1188.69 points, with a month - on - month change of - 5.49% and a week - on - week change of - 8.37% [2]. Downstream Booking and Market Fundamentals - **Booking Situation**: Downstream is currently booking space for the second half of August (week34 - 35). The average price of week34 is 2850 dollars (2000 points), and the current average quote of week35 is 2625 dollars (1840 points). The PA alliance quotes 2500 dollars, MSK quotes 2300 dollars, and the OA alliance quotes 2700 - 2800 dollars [2][3]. - **Receiving Situation**: In week33, MSK had better receiving, OA was average, and PA was poor. In week34, receiving became significantly weaker, and some shipping companies faced pressure in taking orders [2]. - **Capacity Situation**: The average weekly capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as cancellations, they are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU respectively [2].