暴跌10.9%，最近官方报道，咱们的钢厂减产已经严重超过了预期，每产一吨就要亏损91元，在这样的情况下，十分不利于咱们的钢产业发展，面对这如此 严峻的形势，咱们的钢产业又该如何发展？ 全球钢铁市场正上演一幕令人费解的场景，11月份，中国粗钢产量同比下跌10.9%，这一跌幅创下近年来的历史峰值，彰显国内钢铁行业正经历深度调整。 诡异的是，产量大幅收缩的同时，中国钢铁出口却走出逆势上涨行情，同比增幅达到8%，产量与出口的反向背离，打破了行业常规运行逻辑，背后暗藏的 产业困境与转型压力值得深究。 摩根士丹利12月中旬发布的最新行业报告，精准点破了这一悖论的核心。报告指出，国内钢铁需求已陷入彻底恶化状态，过剩产能在本土市场找不到消化出 口，只能被迫转向海外寻求出路。 这波出口增长绝非行业景气度提升的信号，反而折射出国内需求疲软下的产能外溢困境。 《中国冶金报》此前刊发的调研数据显示，当钢铁行业出现"产量跌、出口增"的背离时，往往伴随国内终端需求的大幅萎缩。 从全球视野俯瞰，11月全球钢铁产量同比下跌4.6%，跌幅创下年内最低水平，这一全球数据的下滑，几乎完全由中国市场拖累所致。 世界其他地区的钢铁产量非但没有下跌，反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

12月20日，周五（12月19日）晚间美盘时段，金价走高后小幅度回落，最终微涨约0.15%收报4338美 元，黄金本周100美金区间震荡洗盘，周线收长影阳线。银价则录得可观涨幅，最终收盘距离本周创下 的历史高点仅一步之遥。 基本消息面： 日本央行在行长植田和男主持的货币政策会议上于周五宣布将基准利率上调至30年来的最高水平，政策 委员会以全票通过的决议，将基准利率上调25个基点。但日元汇率却不强反弱，市场普遍认为是因为央 行政策表态力度不及预期导致。 俄罗斯总统普京于周五表示，俄军正在乌克兰战场全线推进。在这场精心筹备的年终记者会上，普京宣 称俄军已"完全掌握战略主动权"，并将在年底前取得更多战果。不过普京同时指出，俄方已做好和平解 决冲突的准备，但和平方案必须着眼于解决冲突的"根源问题"——这一表述也暗示了俄方对于和谈的强 硬条件。本周早些时候，普京曾发出警告，若乌克兰及其西方盟友拒绝俄方诉求，俄军将进一步扩大在 乌控制范围。 纽约商品交易所原油期货价格跌至每桶56美元左右，受供应过剩担忧盖过地缘政治风险影响，油价将迎 来连续第二周下跌。此外，中国、美国等主要原油消费国已显现需求疲软的初步迹象，这也对油价形 ...

来源：智昇财论 #黄金原油收跌# 黄金方面：货币宽松开启以来，美联储已经降息五次，累计降息150个基点。在通胀和就业之间，美联 储官员们对12月降息的分歧仍然存在，这种分歧不仅影响下周能否再次降息，也关系到未来的政策走 向。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也承认了，官员们的争论核心，是经济需要更多刺激来支撑就业市场，而通 胀仍然高于目标以及关税可能进一步推高物价，导致经济可能出现滞胀。在此背景下，近期的黄金趋势 性较弱，价格出现宽幅震荡的态势。 智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，短期回调改变了市场上行结构，价格可能出现宽幅震荡。 技术面：昨日收阴线，市场在次级低点4250美元附近徘徊，价格在布林线上轨附近受到压制。1小时级 别，价格在60/120日均线之间运行，市场处于转势阶段。今日下方关注4170美元的支撑，上方关注4230 美元的压力。 原油方面：12月2日，俄罗斯总统普京与美国特使举行了近5小时的会议，俄方表示会议富有成效。市场 对俄乌和谈的预期又有上升，供应中断担忧有所减弱，油价受此影响出现下跌。 技术面：日线收下影线较长的小阴线。日线级别，年度低位存在支撑，市场仍在下降通道内部运行。1 小时级别，近期市场走势， ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined due to concerns over weak demand, despite reaching a near one-month high in the previous trading session [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, LME three-month copper fell by $35.5, or 0.32%, closing at $10,939.5 per ton [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced price changes, with three-month aluminum down by $32.5 (1.14%), three-month zinc down by $41.5 (1.36%), while three-month lead and nickel saw slight increases [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December led to a peak copper price of $11,025 on November 26, the highest since October 30 [4] - Supply disruptions in mining contributed to a historical high of $11,200 for copper on October 29 [4] - The focus of the metal market shifted to weak demand from major consuming countries due to the U.S. market being closed for Thanksgiving [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Inventory - Technically, copper found support at the 21-day moving average cut-off of $10,813 [5] - Comex copper inventory reached 378,900 tons, continuing to rise from a historical high last week, while LME registered warehouse copper inventory reported at 157,175 tons, down 42% year-to-date [5] - Concerns about tight inventories outside the U.S. have intensified, with LME spot copper contracts showing a premium of $20 per ton at the end of Thursday [5]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices have declined due to a strong dollar and concerns over weak demand, despite a year-to-date increase of approximately 22% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, LME three-month copper fell by $14, or 0.13%, closing at $10,738.50 per ton [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $13 (0.46%) and three-month zinc up by $35 (1.17%), while three-month lead fell by $4.50 (0.22%) [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Concerns over weak demand persist, highlighted by a 13.62% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year decline in China's refined copper imports for October 2025 [5]. - Cochilco has raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to historical highs due to weak production, now expecting an average price of $4.45 per pound for 2025 and $4.55 per pound for 2026 [5].

智通财经APP讯，新矿资源(01231)发布公告，集团于截至2025年9月30日止9个月期间取得未经审核净亏 损;及集团预期截至2025年12月31日止年度取得净亏损约220万美元，而截至2024年12月31日止年度取得 净亏损约30万美元。 此外，如公司于较早前日期为2025年10月24日的公告所披露，Koolan Iron Ore Pty Limited (Koolan)的 Koolan Island作业区主矿坑东侧下盘发生重大落石事故。集团已获通知，Koolan于落石影响区域的补救 工作及恢复采矿作业并不可行。因此，Koolan的采矿活动已经暂停，而Koolan含铁量预期低于55%的低 品位铁矿石仍可继续发货。集团最近亦获通知，若干原定于2025年第四季度进行的发货最近须予以延迟 或取消。集团现正与 Koolan就(其中包括)未来铁矿石供应及潜在补救工作(如有)进行磋商。于本公告日 期，有关磋商仍在进行中。本公司将继续密切关注事态发展，并于必要时适当采取进一步行动。 Koolan为与集团订立的长期赤铁矿供应协议项下的主要赤铁矿供应商。于2025年9月30日，集团确认根 据合同自Koolan购买赤铁矿矿石 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：大佑农饲料） 根据生猪屠企的最新调价动作来看，现在基层生猪主流生猪价格已经呈现了震荡偏弱运行的趋势，无论 是生猪的主销区，还是生猪的调出区，南北各地猪价的下行引起了很多养殖户们的热议。 近期生猪市场动态，当前猪价呈现震荡下行的态势，10月份的反弹行情未能持续，11月初价格已出现明 显回落。以下是关键要点分析： 压栏风险：养殖户压栏导致大体重猪积压，若集中出栏可能引发价格踩踏。 农民需警惕的现实问题 11月回落：进入11月后，猪价再次下跌，南北多地价格飘绿。规模化养殖场集中出栏导致短期供应增 加，屠宰企业借机压价。 在需求方面，进入11月份，一方面，鲜品猪肉购销短暂缺乏利好，由于缺乏节日气氛烘托，居民南方腌 腊高峰尚有时日，居民家庭消费略有改善，但是，城市餐饮消费转弱，下游猪肉购销整体不佳，部分屠 宰场白条出厂存在难度，主流屠宰场开工率回落，日均屠宰量也逐步减少，猪肉购销对于猪价支撑转 差； 另一方面，由于生猪均价上移，二次育肥补栏标猪压栏至南方腌腊周期前的窗口期减少，二育情绪谨 慎，大部二育以观望为主，市场抄底意愿降低，标猪承接支撑转弱！ 上涨难持续的原因 产能过剩：能繁母猪存栏量仍高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China have increased after two consecutive reductions, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10 [3][4]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the price increase based on the average price of crude oil over the past ten working days, which was 62.44 USD per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 2.74% [4]. - This marks the 22nd price adjustment in 2025, with a total of seven increases, nine decreases, and six instances of no change throughout the year [4]. Impact on Consumers - The price increase will result in additional costs for consumers, with private car owners expected to pay approximately 5 yuan more for a full tank of 50 liters, and logistics companies facing an increase of about 177 yuan for heavy trucks over a month [5]. International Oil Market Trends - International crude oil prices have shown a weak and fluctuating trend, influenced by OPEC+ decisions to increase production and concerns over supply surplus [6][7]. - The U.S. government shutdown and rising oil inventories have further pressured oil prices, with forecasts suggesting a decline in Brent crude prices to an average of 62 USD per barrel in Q4 2025 and 52 USD in 2026 [7]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high probability of a price decrease in the next domestic fuel price adjustment due to ongoing supply pressures and weak global demand [8]. - The upcoming pricing cycle may start with a negative change rate, potentially leading to a reduction of around 60 yuan per ton [8][9].