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躺平了,船公司大停航!美国海关服务费大涨,总体上涨约34.33%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:46
船公司大停航,超疫情时期纪录! 面对这一局面,承运商正利用他们仍掌控的唯一手段——运力,来应对挑战。关税引发的波动导致船期减少、需求下降,停航已成为支撑运价的首选方 式。尽管此次调整规模庞大,但采购模式却出奇地保持稳定,大多数承运商尚未以实质性方式将生产撤出中国,而是调整发货时间以应对关税飙升。 该咨询公司报告称:"受中国黄金周假期影响,市场活动放缓,远东地区运价依然承压。尽管航运公司正推动10月15日运价上调,以扭转近期运价暴跌的 局面,但黄金周航班停航后,大多数常规航线的恢复对运价上涨几乎未起到支撑作用。" 由于关税动荡和美国需求疲软正在影响全球供应链,班轮公司正在以自疫情高峰以来前所未有的速度取消航次。 目前,承运商在几条主要航线上的运营利润率已跌破盈亏平衡点,但船公司仍然将市场份额置于盈利能力之上,优先保障市场份额。 据一项新分析显示,2025年10月,中美之间的停航数量预计将达到前所未有的水平,其中从中国到美国的计划停航次数为67次,从美国到中国的为71次。 该分析指出,运力削减水平超过了新冠疫情时期的纪录。凸显出特朗普政府近期实施关税举措对海运贸易造成的严重干扰。 专业人士表示:"承运商取消航班的 ...
【财经分析】本轮中药材价格回调非个别品类 市场低位煎熬是何症结?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 08:56
新华财经昆明9月29日电(记者陈永强、张新新)进入9月下旬,全国中药材主产区陆续迎来产新季。随 着当归、黄芪、党参等大宗品种新货集中上市,市场供应量显著增加,供需格局转向宽松,中药材价格 整体延续下行趋势。多位行业专家指出,在前期高价刺激下种植面积大幅扩张,叠加政策调控与资本退 潮等因素,中药材市场正经历一轮深度调整,本轮价格回调已非个别品类波动,预计价格低位态势短时 间内还将持续。 主产区行情走弱整体价格创近年新低 一方面,中成药企业面临国家集采压力,利润空间被压缩,采购策略趋于保守。以湖北、山东等地开展 的中成药集采为例,中标产品平均降价30%至50%,倒逼生产企业严格控制原料成本,压价采购成为常 态。另一方面,中药饮片行业受临床使用限制等因素影响,医院端用量增长缓慢。政策红利尚未充分传 导至消费终端,市场需求恢复滞后于供给扩张。 此外,资本炒作退潮亦加速价格"跳水"。过去几年,猫爪草、款冬花、紫河车等小众药材成为投机标 的,价格脱离基本面疯狂上涨。然而,随着监管趋严、资金撤离,这些品种迅速回归理性。例如,猫爪 草从2024年初的每公斤1200元暴跌至目前约每公斤110元,跌幅超90%;款冬花亦从2023 ...
对二甲苯:短期有反弹,中期仍偏弱,PTA:短期有反弹,中期仍偏弱;MEG:1-5 月差反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 06:30
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Short - term rebound due to oil price support, but mid - term trend remains weak. Hold short positions and maintain reverse calendar spreads [6]. - PTA: Short - term cost support is strong, but mid - term unilateral trend is weak. Implement 1 - 5 reverse calendar spreads [7]. - MEG: Unilateral trend is bearish due to large supply pressure. Short on rallies and hold reverse calendar spreads [7][8]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: Due to the instability of the Russia - Ukraine situation and potential escalation of US sanctions on some oil - producing countries, international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude futures contract 11 rose $1.13/barrel (+1.81% month - on - month), and ICE Brent crude futures contract 11 rose $1.06/barrel (+1.59% month - on - month) [3]. - **PX**: On September 23, PX price declined. The Asian PX price dropped month - on - month as market sentiment and buying interest weakened. The 10 - month MOPJ was estimated at $586/ton CFR. The PX valuation on September 23 was $803/ton, a $5 decrease from September 22 [3][4]. - **PTA**: The spot price dropped to 4470 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 79 [5]. - **MEG**: The spot price this week and next week was around 4325 yuan/ton (high) and 4270 yuan/ton (low), with a daily average of 4297 yuan/ton. The planned arrival at major ports from September 22 - 28 was about 7.3 tons [5]. - **Polyester**: On September 23, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of just over 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 44% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Fundamental Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6530 | - 6592 | - 0.94% | PX11 - 1 | 4 | 18 | - 14 | | PTA Main | 4556 | - 30 | - 0.65% | PTA11 - 1 | - 22 | - 20 | - 2 | | MEG Main | 4212 | - 28 | - 0.66% | MEG1 - 5 | - 67 | - 54 | - 13 | | PF Main | 6250 | - 24 | - 0.38% | PF11 - 12 | 40 | 34 | 6 | | SC Main | 473.1 | - 9.9 | - 2.05% | SC11 - 12 | - 0.5 | - 0.2 | - 0.3 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 803.33 | 808.33 | - 5 | | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | 4468 | 4515 | - 47 | | MEG Spot | 4292 | 4342 | - 50 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 597.5 | 595.62 | 1.88 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 68.41 | 66.75 | 1.66 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 218.92 | 227.29 | - 8.38 | | PTA Processing Fee | 174.72 | 189.33 | - 14.61 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 237.89 | 220.08 | 17.81 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 67.94 | 40.17 | 27.78 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 6.01 | - 6.01 | 0 | [2]
异动点评:现货遇冷,集运期货盘面持续下跌
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 11:08
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low again, closing at 1050.5 points today with a 6% decline [2] - The direct cause of the current decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices, driven by increasing capacity and relatively weak supply [4] - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices remains strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year [6] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Today's Market - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low, closing at 1050.5 points with a 6% decline [2] Trading Logic - The direct cause of the decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices. Most Maersk 40GP quotes are in the range of 1400 - 1680 dollars/TEU, and other airlines' quotes are mostly 1600 - 1700 dollars/TEU, about 300 - 400 dollars/TEU lower than a week ago [4] - The overall capacity of the European line is 505,000, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, showing an over - supply situation. Although the suspension of flights from wk40 - 42 this year is similar to last year, the overall capacity base is significantly higher [4] Fundamental Analysis - As of September 19, the future 6 - week freight quotes from Shanghai to European basic ports vary among different airlines. For example, Maersk's quotes are 840 - 1351 dollars/FEU and 1400 - 2162 dollars/FEU [5] - As of September 19, the global container total capacity is 33.05 million TEU, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The eurozone's August composite PMI is 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI is 48.7 [5] - On the demand side, the European economy recovers slowly. Affected by the energy crisis and high inflation, consumer confidence is low, and shipping orders have decreased significantly [5] Future Outlook - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices is still strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year, and investors will be more cautious [6] - Investors should closely monitor booking situations and possible price - increase announcements from airlines. In the short - term, consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage, and in the medium - term, consider the opportunity of the 12 - contract bottom - fishing rebound [6]
宁证期货今日早评-20250916
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:02
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend across different commodities, with some expected to be volatile, some bullish in the short - term, and others bearish or with a neutral outlook [1][2][4]. - Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and economic indicators significantly influence commodity prices [2][9]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support short - term oil prices, but supply surplus and weak US demand may suppress prices in the medium - term; it is recommended to trade cautiously in the short - term [2]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the given content. Metals Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments are rising, arrivals are fluctuating slightly, iron - water production is high and stable, and port inventories are expected to accumulate. Short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Steel (including Rebar) - Cost increases drive steel prices up, but considering the balanced supply - demand in the steel market, continuous price increases are doubtful; short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Copper - Not covered in the given content. Aluminum - Not covered in the given content. Gold - Before the interest - rate cut is realized, the price trend is bullish; after the cut, it may follow the expected realization trend. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations [9]. Silver - Before the interest - rate cut, the price is expected to be bullish; after the cut, it may enter an expected realization phase. The influence of gold price fluctuations on silver should be monitored [9]. Agricultural Products Corn - Not covered in the given content. Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term due to strong new - grain harvest expectations and cautious attitudes of grain trading enterprises. The upward price space is limited [7]. Wheat - Not covered in the given content. Cotton - Not covered in the given content. Palm Oil - Floods in Malaysia's palm - oil producing areas and strong demand in India support the price. Domestic demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. Pork - The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [5]. Chemicals PX - As PX maintenance units restart, supply increases to a high level. Although there is some short - term demand support, the expected increase in new orders and production load is limited. The supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [8]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile [10]. Polyethylene (including LLDPE) - LLDPE prices are weak, supply is high, production enterprise inventories are rising, downstream demand is expected to increase, and cost support is strengthening. The short - term price of the L2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [13]. PVC - Not covered in the given content. Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are resilient, port inventories are decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking, and the price is slightly rising. It is currently in a low - inventory and weak - demand situation and is expected to be volatile [8]. Others Tires - Not covered in the given content. Paper - Not covered in the given content. Glass - Float glass production is stable, inventories are slightly decreasing, and the trading atmosphere in the East China market is average. The domestic soda - ash market is in an adjustment phase, with supply slightly decreasing and downstream demand being mainly for replenishing stocks as needed [12]. Soda Ash - The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long positions on price corrections [12]. Coke - Coking enterprises still have profits, supply is becoming more abundant, and the futures price is expected to be volatile after two rounds of price cuts. Attention should be paid to iron - water production during the peak season [1].
欧洲苯市场需求疲软持续承压
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-09-15 06:07
Core Viewpoint - The European benzene market is facing structural demand weakness and local supply surplus, leading to a pessimistic outlook for the market through 2025 [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Conditions - The European benzene market is dominated by oversupply, primarily due to the ongoing downturn in the automotive and construction sectors, resulting in weak demand for raw benzene and its derivatives [2][3] - As of August 15, the average price of benzene in the ARA region was $763.95 per ton, down 19% from the second half of 2024 and 27% from the average price in 2024 [2] - The economic viability of benzene production is deteriorating, leading to a slight tightening of local supply [2] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern instability, have caused significant volatility in oil prices, impacting the European benzene market [3] - The imposition of a 15% tariff on EU products by the U.S. has exacerbated the oversupply situation in Europe, making exports to the U.S. unprofitable [3] - Current data indicates that European exports to the U.S. are incurring losses of $5 to $15 per ton, limiting arbitrage opportunities [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Market participants are generally pessimistic about the benzene market's prospects, with expectations of no significant improvement in the fourth quarter of this year [3][4] - The focus is shifting towards 2026, as the ongoing weakness in the automotive and construction sectors continues to hinder demand recovery [3] - Long-term recovery may require significant capacity reductions in steam cracking facilities, which could take years to manifest in the market [4]
供应过剩+需求疲软,油价恐正迎来一场“完美风暴”!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-29 12:30
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are unlikely to see significant upward momentum this year due to increased domestic production and the threat of U.S. tariffs suppressing demand growth [1][2] - A Reuters survey of 31 economists and analysts predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $67.65 per barrel in 2025, which is similar to the July forecast of $67.84 [1] - WTI crude oil is expected to average $64.65 per barrel, slightly up from the previous estimate of $64.61 [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, with expectations that they may continue to raise output [2] - Analysts suggest that the focus on market share over higher oil prices could lead to significant oversupply in the oil market in 2025 and 2026, which would depress prices [2] - The geopolitical risks, particularly related to the U.S. and Russia, are expected to provide some support for oil prices despite the anticipated oversupply [2][3] Group 3 - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 500,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day by 2025, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a growth of 680,000 barrels per day [2] - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for next year while lowering estimates for supply growth from the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ producers [2]
港口库存接近130万吨!甲醇期货价格持续走弱
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-29 00:14
Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has been experiencing a downward trend since August, with the main contract dropping over 5% and reaching a two-month low due to weak fundamentals and high supply pressure [1][4]. Supply Analysis - Domestic methanol production remains high, with operating rates at 83%-85% and daily output at 270,000 tons. The recovery of previously shut-down facilities is expected to further increase production [1]. - Iran's methanol shipments are projected to exceed 1 million tons in August, contributing to a potential record high in monthly imports to China [1]. - High upstream production profits and capacity utilization rates indicate that the supply surplus is unlikely to change in the near term [1]. Demand Analysis - Core downstream sectors are facing significant losses, with MTO facilities in East China reporting a loss of 789 yuan per ton, which is suppressing operational and purchasing willingness [1]. - Traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are in a consumption lull, leading to low overall operating rates [1]. - There is a notable divergence in profits between upstream and downstream sectors, with high upstream profits not being effectively transmitted to the downstream due to strong resistance to high raw material prices [1]. Inventory Situation - As of August 27, methanol port inventory in China reached 1.2993 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons, nearing historical highs. The sellable inventory also hit a record high of 670,000 tons, putting downward pressure on spot prices [2]. - The current market shows a "two-tier" inventory situation, with high port inventories and low inland inventories. Inland methanol inventories are approximately 200,000 tons, significantly lower than the average for the same period in previous years [4]. Price Dynamics - Weak cost support from domestic coal prices and declining international natural gas prices are contributing to the downward pressure on methanol prices [3]. - The market is expected to remain bearish in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with limited potential for price rebounds until inventory levels are effectively reduced [4]. Future Outlook - The high inventory situation at ports is likely to persist, but the potential for further significant increases in inventory is low. Supply is expected to gradually decrease as autumn maintenance approaches [5]. - Two potential positive factors for the market include the upcoming "golden September and silver October" demand season and expectations of reduced methanol supply from countries like Iran due to natural gas production limits [5].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250828
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:56
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the market focuses on upcoming US economic data for policy clues, with concerns about the Fed's independence. The US dollar index and Treasury yields are generally weak, and global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce between China and the US and increased US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled, and domestic risk appetite has significantly declined. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally but sentiment weakening. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - For assets, the stock index has corrected from its short - term high, and short - term cautious observation is recommended. Treasury bonds are oscillating at a high level, and cautious observation is needed. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and precious metals are all in short - term oscillations, and cautious observation is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The economic data in July slowed down and missed expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations reduce external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening but sentiment weakening. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated narrowly on Wednesday. The market focuses on Friday's PCE data to assess the Fed's policy path. Economists expect a 2.6% increase in PCE in July, the same as in June. After Powell's dovish signal, the market expects a more than 87% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. The manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high, but initial jobless claims rose. The increase in key capital goods orders in July exceeded expectations. The rate - cut expectation is further strengthened, providing short - term support for gold, but beware of the Fed's changing attitude [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets weakened, with low trading volumes. The stock market correction increased risk - aversion sentiment, dragging down the black sector. Real - world demand continued to weaken, inventories of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased, and apparent consumption declined. Supply increased slightly. Near the end of the month, there is more pressure for capital repatriation and sales. The steel market is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot price of iron ore remained flat, and the futures price declined slightly. With high steel mill profits, hot - metal production continued to decline slightly. In the next week, northern regions will have different degrees of production restrictions, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Mainstream Australian powder resources are stably supplied, but traders are reluctant to sell, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The port inventory decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys is currently okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the north and 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton in the south. In the south, production is increasing, but factories are in a wait - and - see state due to the falling futures price. The price of manganese ore is weak. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton for 72 - grade natural lumps and 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. Some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and have high production enthusiasm. Ferroalloy prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production increased due to the return from maintenance. In the new capacity - release cycle, there is supply pressure, and the oversupply pattern remains. New devices will be put into production in the fourth quarter. High supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, and downstream demand support is still weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and the supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production and the number of operating production lines remained stable. The real - estate industry is still weak, and demand is hard to improve. Downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as the glass price fell. With stable supply and limited demand growth, glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US data shows that core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military equipment) increased by 1.1% last month. As factors such as export rush, PV pre - installation, and the marginal effect of trade - in policies decline, domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price will not last [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the aluminum price rose and then fell. There was no news for the night - session surge, which was likely driven by the copper price. The aluminum price increase was greater than that of copper, but it fell during the day as commodities weakened. Aluminum's fundamentals changed little, with social inventory increasing by 20,000 tons and a cumulative increase of 170,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory also continued to increase. There is limited medium - term upward space, and it will oscillate in the short term, lacking a strong downward driver but with a weakening rebound foundation [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants face raw - material shortages, with rising production costs. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [11]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mine supply is currently tight, but the reduction in refined tin production is less than expected. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, and capacity utilization may decline. With the issuance of mining licenses, the mine supply will tend to be loose. African tin imports decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. PV pre - installation has overdrawn future demand, and new PV installations are weakening. The operating rates of PV glass and PV solder strips have declined. Overall, downstream orders are scarce. The price decline has stimulated downstream restocking, and inventory decreased by 802 tons to 9,278 tons, but downstream buyers are still cautious, only making purchases for immediate needs. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main lithium - carbonate contract 2511 fell by 0.23%, with a new settlement price of 80,000 yuan/ton and a reduction of 3,104 lots in weighted contracts, and a total position of 757,900 lots. The battery - grade lithium - carbonate price is 79,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the industrial - grade is 78,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CIF price of Australian lithium spodumene is 920 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The profit from purchasing lithium spodumene for production is 1,988 yuan/ton. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract 2511 fell by 1.56%, with a new settlement price of 8,540 yuan/ton, a position of 516,800 lots in weighted contracts, and a reduction of 9,286 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the futures price is at a discount of 775 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China 421 and East China oxygen - containing 553 is 250 yuan/ton. Recently, black metals and polysilicon have weakened, and industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 fell by 4.89%, with a new settlement price of 49,715 yuan/ton, a position of 334,600 lots in weighted contracts, and an increase of 14,137 lots. The price of N - type re -投料 is 49,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the P - type cauliflower - like material is 30,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.24 yuan/piece (unchanged), the M10 single - crystal TOPCon battery is 0.292 yuan/watt (unchanged), and the 210mm N - type module is 0.68 yuan/watt (unchanged). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased to 6,880, reflecting increased hedging pressure. The polysilicon output in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It broke through support in the short term, with a bearish direction. Attention should be paid to the spot support below [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US crude and fuel inventories decreased, alleviating concerns about imminent supply over - capacity. Although the absolute price is still in a range, the spread of WTI has widened to the largest in over a week, and Cushing inventory decreased for the first time in 8 weeks, with a national inventory reduction of 2.4 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The US increased tariffs on some Indian goods, but Indian refineries plan to maintain most purchases, so short - term supply concerns are hard to ease, and there is still significant medium - and long - term downward pressure on oil prices [16]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price decreased slightly as the market followed the decline of anti - involution leading varieties. The asphalt spot market has slightly recovered, and the decline of the basis has paused. However, social and factory inventories have not significantly decreased, and profits have slightly recovered with a significant increase in production. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. With limited inventory reduction, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern in the near term [16]. - **PX**: After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, the tight PX situation will provide obvious support at the bottom. Benefiting from petrochemical capacity adjustment, but with the PX plant load at a medium - low level, it is still in a tight pattern in the short term. The PXN spread is currently 266 US dollars, and the PX overseas price has rebounded to 864 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [16]. - **PTA**: The PTA price decreased with position reduction as the market declined. However, domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments have stabilized the energy - chemical sector in the short term. The temporary shutdown of the Huizhou plant due to environmental requirements provides some support, and the basis remains at +30. Downstream production has recovered to 90%, and the restocking pace has accelerated before the peak season. PTA may have a slight inventory reduction in September and is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol gave back some previous gains and oscillated narrowly in the short term. Port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. Domestic restrictions on petrochemical capacity and new - project approvals will limit supply. However, the basis has not significantly recovered. The increase in downstream production will support ethylene glycol at the bottom, but the supply pressure is still large after the resumption of synthetic - gas - based plants. It is necessary to wait for verification of peak - season demand. When going long at low prices, attention should be paid to crude - oil cost fluctuations [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased slightly as the sector declined. Terminal orders have seasonally increased, and short - fiber production has slightly rebounded, with limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in production. In the medium term, short - fiber can be short - sold along with the polyester sector [18]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have pressured the price. As the port price falls, the back - flow window is about to open, providing some support for the spot. MTO plants plan to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching. The methanol fundamentals show marginal improvement, but the oversupply pattern has not changed, and the price is expected to oscillate [18]. - **PP**: The increase in plant operation and upcoming new capacity have increased supply pressure. Downstream production has slightly increased, and demand is showing signs of recovery. There is significant fundamental pressure, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season stocking [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is showing a turning point. The "supply - side" speculation provides some price support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term bearish. Attention should be paid to demand and stocking [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1048.25, down 1.25 or 0.12% (settlement price 1047.50). The weather in the US core soybean - producing areas in August has been favorable, and the overall soybean quality rate remains high. With the increasing likelihood of a US soybean harvest, the futures price is under pressure. Market news indicates that China will send a delegation to the US for trade negotiations this week, boosting US soybean export expectations. Additionally, increased US Treasury bond selling and a weaker US dollar provide some macro - level support for US soybeans [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure on domestic oil mills to accumulate soybean and soybean meal inventories has eased. Market news suggests that this week's China - US trade negotiations will focus on soybean purchases, further stabilizing supply expectations. In the third quarter, preventive purchases have ensured sufficient soybean supply, but supply may tighten in the fourth quarter, with stable cost - based support. Rapeseed meal currently has high - inventory circulation pressure, but with low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases, there is still potential for price increases. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [21]. - **Edible Oils**: The port inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing. With few imported rapeseed purchases and low inventory in China, the supply is expected to contract strongly. The cost expectation of soybean oil has strengthened, and a low - valuation price increase is expected. The palm oil production cycle is in progress, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. There is no short - term incremental consumption expectation from policies, and the bullish market may enter an oscillation phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The arrival of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased over the weekend, and enterprise prices were slightly reduced. In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn will increase, and the C2511 contract has entered the price range of last year's opening price, 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton. There is no pressure from a large - scale arrival as in last year, with low carry - over inventory and the risk of excessive rainfall in the main producing areas. Although the planting cost has decreased this year, due to policies to stabilize the prices of important agricultural products and increase farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's price range. The futures price is currently in a relatively undervalued range, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [22]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs for slaughter is sufficient, and slaughterhouses have low purchasing pressure. The reduction in supply in some provinces has a limited impact on enterprise purchases, with a slight upward trend. There may be local emotional - driven price increases in the north tomorrow. In the south, demand supports the price, and the market is stable. Currently, secondary fattening is generally cautious, with limited restocking. As a result, the buffer space for large - scale future slaughter is reduced, and market pessimism about the fourth - quarter outlook is increasing [22].
财政扩张与需求疲软双重打压!日本超长债收益率升至数十年高位
智通财经网· 2025-08-21 04:13
Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds has risen to 2.655%, the highest level since 1999, while the 30-year bond yield has reached 3.185%, approaching historical highs since its introduction [1][2] - The fluctuations in bond yields are attributed to expectations of increased bond issuance following the ruling coalition's losses in the July Senate elections, exacerbating the pressure on already strained long-term bonds [1] - Ongoing inflation concerns are increasing pressure on ultra-long-term bonds, forcing the Bank of Japan to face greater interest rate hike pressures [1] Group 2 - Investor demand for Japanese government bonds is declining, with net purchases of bonds with maturities over 10 years by foreign investors dropping to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, only one-third of the June level [2] - The significant decrease in foreign net purchases raises concerns about potential volatility in the long end of the yield curve [2] - Recent increases in open interest in Japanese government bond futures indicate that aggressive traders are increasingly confident that the probability of an interest rate hike in October has shifted from 50% to fully priced in [2]