朋友们可能都听说了，最近美国那边的媒体又在传一个说法，说什么中国"停止抛售美债"，美联储"无奈让步"。听起来挺刺激 的，好像咱们在金融战场上取得了什么重大胜利似的。 事情真的是这样吗？咱们不妨把这个话题掰开了、揉碎了好好聊聊。 说起美债这事儿，就得从最基本的数字说起。根据美国财政部2025年2月18日公布的最新数据，中国持有美国国债的规模已经降 到了7590亿美元。这个数字意味着什么呢？这是中国自2009年以来持有美债的最低水平。 回想一下，在2011年的时候，咱们持有美债的峰值是1.3万亿美元左右。从那时候到现在，总共减持了约5500亿美元，降幅超过 40%。单是2024年一整年，就减持了573亿美元。更有意思的是，2024年全年12个月里，有9个月都在减持，只有4月、6月和11月 增持了一点点。 这些数字告诉我们什么？中国确实在持续减持美债，而且这个趋势已经延续了好几年。从2022年4月开始，咱们持有的美债就一 直保持在1万亿美元以下，每年都在稳步下降：2022年减持1732亿美元，2023年减持508亿美元，2024年减持573亿美元。 那美媒说的"停止抛售"是怎么来的呢？仔细分析一下就会发现，这个说法 ...

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 近年来，桥水等国际顶尖资管机构的多资产策略产品广受青睐，国内的多资产策略产品也逐步从小众走向主流。私募排排网整理的数据显示，今 年1-10月，多资产策略产品的备案数量共有1400只，仅次于股票策略产品。 从业绩层面来看，截至2025年11月14日，在私募排排网有记录显示的产品中， 多资产策略年内收益均值为 20.37%，仅次于股票策略。另外， 多资产策略年内夏普比率均值为1.65，高于股票策略，而波动率与回撤均值更低，可见多资产策略收益表现相对较为稳定。 | 五个私募核心策略今年来收益概况 | | --- | | 一级策略 | 收益均值 | 正收益占比 | 夏普比率均值 | 波动率均值 | 回撤均值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票策略 | 29.54% | 93.14% | 1.56 | 35.96% | 11.20% | | 多资产策略 | 20.37% | 91.73% | 1.65 | 25.84% | 7.41% | | 组合基金 | 18.98% | 96.34% | 1.89 ...

"很多同行消失了！"单一策略遇冷，私募转型多策略 千象资产表示，单一资产类别、单一策略的周期性特征显著，股票资产牛熊周期跨度可达5～8年；债券 类资产风险相对较小，但随着利率下行，收益逐年走低；商品则受供需错配和地缘政治影响，波动率常 高于30%。因此，公司基于在CTA与股票量化的多年积淀，布局量化多策略，以降低波动率、提升适应 力。 中国基金报记者 孙越 吴君 "原来跟我们一批做CTA的，很多都已经消失了。"一位以CTA策略起家的私募负责人感慨道。据他透 露，国内一家规模曾超百亿元的CTA策略私募，如今规模已萎缩至不足5亿元，已搬到隔壁办公楼，而 更多同期成立的机构早已没了声音。 不仅是CTA私募，还有债券、主观多头等管理人，也以不同方式布局多资产领域，发行多策略产品。其 背后的逻辑是，单一策略收益率下行，或容量有限，抗风险能力不足，通过多资产、多策略布局，可以 实现风险的分散与收益来源的多元化。 记者了解到，私募转型多策略并非易事，需要重塑一套投研框架，对投资团队、交易系统与风控标准提 出更高要求。私募看好多策略的崛起，逐步从小众走向主流。最新备案数据也印证了这一转向，今年10 月，多资产策略私募产品备案 ...

【导读】"很多同行消失了！"单一策略遇冷，私募转型多策略 "原来跟我们一批做CTA的，很多都已经消失了。"一位以CTA策略起家的私募负责人感慨道。据他透 露，国内一家规模曾超百亿元的CTA策略私募，如今规模已萎缩至不足5亿元，已搬到隔壁办公楼，而 更多同期成立的机构早已没了声音。 不仅是CTA私募，还有债券、主观多头等管理人，也以不同方式布局多资产领域，发行多策略产品。其 背后的逻辑是，单一策略收益率下行，或容量有限，抗风险能力不足，通过多资产、多策略布局，可以 实现风险的分散与收益来源的多元化。 记者了解到，私募转型多策略并非易事，需要重塑一套投研框架，对投资团队、交易系统与风控标准提 出更高要求。私募看好多策略的崛起，逐步从小众走向主流。最新备案数据也印证了这一转向，今年10 月，多资产策略私募产品备案数量达到122只，占比升至12.27%，仅次于股票策略。 CTA策略曾是私募行业的"明星赛道"，但单一策略的局限性如今愈发凸显。 "光做CTA还是不够丰富，天花板太低了。"前述私募负责人表示，核心原因在于期货市场容量有限，远 不及股票市场的体量。这几年，不少CTA私募规模缩水明显，反观股票类私募，今年诞生了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential property market is stabilizing, with a slight increase of 1% in relevant indices over the first nine months of the year, while the commercial property market continues to face challenges [1] Banking Sector - The risks in the banking sector are deemed "fully controllable," with banks having made significant provisions and maintaining a capital adequacy ratio exceeding 21%, well above the international standard of 8% [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has been closely monitoring the overall stability of the banking sector, which has a risk exposure primarily directed towards financially sound large local enterprises [1] Real Estate Development - The risk exposure for local small and medium-sized property developers and investors includes those with weaker financial conditions or higher debt-to-asset ratios, but banks have already implemented credit risk mitigation measures for these loans, most of which are secured by collateral [1] - There is no excessive concentration of loans to any single borrower within the banking sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of multi-asset strategies, including macro hedging, which have shown strong performance in recent months, indicating a potential shift in investment trends [4][5][6]. Performance Summary - Macro strategies have achieved an average return of nearly 25% by September 30, while multi-asset strategies returned approximately 19%, outperforming most mainstream strategies except for equities [6]. - In the first quarter, the performance of various strategies was as follows: equity strategies at 31.19%, multi-asset strategies at 18.92%, and bond strategies at 9.26% [7]. Market Context - The article notes that market distortions caused by policy fluctuations have led to temporary asset mispricing, but as market sentiment stabilizes, the correlation between assets is returning to normal, revitalizing macro and multi-asset strategies [8][11]. - The current market environment is compared to the rise of quantitative strategies in 2018 and 2019, suggesting that multi-asset strategies are at a similar critical point of recognition and acceptance [12][17]. Advantages of Multi-Asset Strategies - Multi-asset strategies are highlighted for their diversified sources of returns, controlled drawdowns, rapid recovery, and adaptability across market cycles, which contribute to stable absolute returns [10]. - The article emphasizes that while multi-asset strategies may not perform as well in a strong upward market compared to pure equity assets, they offer a better risk-return profile overall [10]. Transition in Investment Approaches - There is a noted shift among asset managers from single-asset strategies to multi-asset strategies, driven by the need for risk diversification and multiple sources of returns [17]. - Various private equity firms are adopting multi-asset strategies, with examples including macro hedging strategies that utilize a combination of beta and alpha approaches to capture excess returns globally [18][19][20]. Specific Strategy Examples - Longxue employs a macro strategy with 70% in beta and 30% in alpha, using a risk parity approach for global asset allocation [18]. - Shida Xinghui focuses on an all-weather allocation strategy, with a similar beta/alpha split [18]. - Yuanchuang uses a risk budgeting model to allocate assets across different strategies, including economic and sentiment cycles [19]. - Zhaorong Hu emphasizes a quantitative approach to stock selection while incorporating convertible bonds and futures for enhanced returns [20]. - Guoyuan has developed a multi-asset strategy that combines top-down and bottom-up approaches to optimize risk-adjusted returns [21].

Core Insights - The Chinese reinsurance industry is rapidly developing, with 26 domestic reinsurance entities and 6 foreign institutions operating in Shanghai's international reinsurance registration and trading center, achieving a cumulative trading scale of 4.5 billion yuan and a registration scale of nearly 110 billion yuan by the end of Q3 this year [1][2]. Industry Development - The reinsurance sector is expected to play a crucial role in addressing new insurance demands arising from high-quality development in production, consumption, and trade during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. - The next decade is identified as a critical period for filling gaps in China's reinsurance market, with a need to enhance supply capabilities, risk pricing, and market leadership [4]. Risk Landscape - The global reinsurance market faces complex risks, with natural disasters causing insurance losses exceeding $100 billion for five consecutive years, and geopolitical risks increasing exposure in areas such as political violence and cybersecurity [3][4]. - China's reinsurance market currently holds only 4% of the global share, ranking seventh worldwide, indicating significant room for growth [3]. Emerging Opportunities - The demand for reinsurance is expected to rise as Chinese enterprises expand overseas, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, which saw exports surpassing 1.28 million units in 2024 [5][6]. - The insurance industry is anticipated to invest more resources into managing risks associated with new energy vehicles, enhancing operational management capabilities [6]. Challenges in Expansion - Challenges faced by insurers venturing abroad include data discrepancies, complex regulatory environments, high service network costs, and the need for specialized risk management [7]. - To address these challenges, initiatives such as building industry-level data platforms, sharing global networks, innovating reinsurance solutions, and promoting standardization are being pursued [7].

21日，截至记者发稿，现货白银日内大跌5%，跌破50美元/盎司，为10月10日以来首次。现货黄金失守4260美元/盎司，日内跌超2%。 2025.10.21 本文字数：3429，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 |第一财经冯迪凡 近期，桥水基金创始人达利欧在各个场合密集谈论黄金，并解释其投资内生逻辑。 在10月出席2025年格林威治经济论坛（GEF）以及9月末在新加坡举行的一场论坛上，他都提到，建议投资者对黄金的持仓达到投资组合的 10%~15%。 同时，在不断回顾20世纪70年代以来美元、美债、黄金的趋势后，达利欧也一再表示，当前随着美国债务不断增加，黄金等产品将成为更强大的 价值储存手段。 在其近日的一篇长篇博文中，达利欧就有关黄金的最关键六个问题作答。他表示，黄金已经开始取代部分美国国债，成为许多投资组合中的无风 险资产，尤其是在各国央行和大型机构投资组合中。这些投资组合的持有者已经减少了美国国债相对于黄金的持有量。 债务货币和黄金货币的相对供求关系正在发生变化 首先，在"如何看待黄金"这一问题上，达利欧表示，他认为大多数人都犯了一个错误，即他们把黄金视为一种金属，而不是最成熟的货币形式。 他们认为法定货币才是 ...

Core Insights - The Nauru Economic and Climate Resilience Citizenship Program (CIB) is experiencing a surge in applications due to global events, particularly conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, as well as political instability in the United States [1][2]. Group 1: Program Overview - The Nauru CIB program allows investors to gain citizenship and visa-free access to 89 countries, while also contributing to Nauru's climate resilience and sustainable development [2][3]. - The program was launched earlier this year and aims to attract investors committed to supporting the sustainable development of Nauru, a Pacific island nation [3]. Group 2: Motivations for Applications - Many individuals are seeking alternative citizenship due to concerns about their global standing amid geopolitical tensions, with some U.S. citizens and European families applying for the program [2]. - The program is viewed as a prudent option for risk diversification, especially for citizens of politically sensitive or restricted countries looking for a more neutral passport [2]. Group 3: Program Integrity and Future Outlook - The Nauru CIB program has strict due diligence requirements, including financial records and police checks, ensuring its integrity and providing significant value to applicants [3]. - There is an expectation that interest in the Nauru program will continue to grow, particularly among those looking to support small island nations in addressing economic vulnerabilities and climate change [3].

Core Insights - The stock market is perceived as unfavorable for small investors, with a significant majority (85%) of retail investors experiencing losses averaging 28%, while wealth accumulates among the top 0.5% of affluent investors [1] - A substantial portion (90%) of retail investors have less than 100,000 yuan in capital, limiting their ability to recover from losses and cover basic expenses [1][3] - Transaction costs for retail investors can consume 10%-20% of their capital annually, making it difficult for small investors to sustain their investments [3] Group 1 - Retail investors often lack the time to conduct thorough research due to work commitments, leading to poor investment decisions and a tendency to hold onto losing stocks for too long [3][6] - The average holding period for retail investors is only 3-6 months, driven by a desire for quick profits, which contrasts with the strategies of institutional investors who are more patient and strategic [6] - Retail investors struggle with risk diversification, as they may invest in multiple stocks without sufficient capital to mitigate losses effectively, unlike institutional investors who can spread risk across various asset classes [6][8] Group 2 - The perceived low entry barrier of the stock market (e.g., the ability to open an account with just 500 yuan) masks the true challenges faced by small investors, such as the need for financial resilience and investment knowledge [8] - Many small investors use essential funds for trading, which can jeopardize their financial stability when faced with market downturns [8] - The article emphasizes that investing in stocks should not be viewed as a quick path to wealth but rather as a complex process requiring adequate capital, time, and expertise [8]