| | | | | | | | | FER TAX FER | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/10 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a month - on - month improvement in apparent demand [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8] - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][12] - Silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotation rises [2][12] - Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][15] - Coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures was 805.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 9,319 lots. Imported ore prices decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32%, with a decrease in open interest. For hot - rolled coil, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to September 25 steel union weekly data, rebar production increased by 0.01 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 tons. Apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.41 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons. In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities increased. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. Other news includes export and import data of steel products [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2511 was 5,786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2511 was 5,924 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 25, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced. In September, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia decreased, but production increased. New production capacity of silicomanganese is expected to increase. Overseas mining companies raised their quotations for November [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,234.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.8%. For coke, the closing price of J2601 was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.7%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak domestic demand and cautious market sentiment [2] - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level with support from high hot metal production and limited inventory build - up pressure [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4][6] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices show good performance with upward - repaired valuations, and it is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7][8] Summary by Industry Steel - The futures market declined today. Thread apparent demand recovered, production continued to fall, and inventory decreased slightly. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production continued to rise, and inventory accumulated again. High hot metal production eased the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain, but poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the market was cautious, and the bearish demand outlook restricted the upside of the futures market [2] Iron Ore - The futures market declined today. Global shipments fell from a high level, slightly stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory decreased last week with no significant short - term inventory build - up pressure. Domestic terminal demand was weak, steel mills had slight profits and low willingness to cut production actively. High hot metal production last week continued to support iron ore demand. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased significantly, and there was still some pre - festival replenishment demand. Market speculation cooled down. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated during the day. The first round of coking price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly. Overall coke inventory increased. With the rise in futures prices, traders' purchasing willingness improved. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a slight premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated during the day. Mongolian coal customs clearance suspended during the National Day holiday and will resume on October 8. Coking coal mine production increased slightly. Pre - National Day replenishment sentiment was strong, spot auction transactions increased, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory increased, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The resumption of production in coking coal mines was basically completed, and it was less likely to significantly increase production capacity under the over - production inspection. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Weekly silicon manganese production continued to increase, and inventory did not accumulate. Spot and futures demand was good. Manganese ore forward quotes rose slightly, and spot ore was boosted. Manganese ore inventory increased slowly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Magnesium metal production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, spot and futures market demand was good, and inventory decreased slightly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel demand is in the off - season, with weak reality and expectations due to declines in domestic real estate, infrastructure investment, and a slowdown in manufacturing investment growth. However, coal supply interference expectations remain, and raw materials like coking coal and iron ore are relatively strong. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with rebar between 3100 - 3350 yuan and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. Suggest light - position long - entry attempts and short the January hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1] Iron Ore - Last week, iron ore futures trended strongly. Supply - side global shipments rebounded significantly while 45 - port arrivals decreased. Demand - side saw increased steel mill restocking demand despite a slight decline in profit margins. The market is in a balanced and tight state, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 iron ore contract at low prices and engage in an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Last week, coke and coking coal futures both trended upwards. For coke, after two rounds of price cuts, there is still profit in coking, and downstream demand has support. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. For coking coal, the market has stabilized, and downstream restocking demand has increased. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract at low prices and engage in an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China and North China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in South China it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Futures prices for all contracts rose. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in North China and South China it decreased by 10 and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices also generally rose [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Profits of some steel products decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit which decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1] Production, Inventory, and Demand - Daily average pig iron production increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase. Building materials trading volume increased by 2.6 to 11.4, a 29.6% increase [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of various iron ore powders in Rizhao Port increased slightly, with a 0.9 - 1.0% increase. Futures contract spreads such as 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 changed, with the 5 - 9 spread increasing by 2.5 to 22.0, a 12.8% increase [4] Supply and Demand - Global iron ore shipments increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a 29.6% increase, and 45 - port arrivals decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a 3.5% decrease. 247 steel mills' daily average pig iron production increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [4] Inventory - 45 - port inventory decreased by 3.3 to 13801.08, a 0.0% decrease. 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase [4] Coking Coal and Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices generally rose. For example, the coke 01 contract increased by 30 to 1739, a 1.7% increase, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 29 to 1232, a 2.4% increase [6] Supply and Demand - Coke production was relatively stable, with the full - sample coking plant's daily average production decreasing by 0.0 to 66.7, a 0.1% decrease. Coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 11.4 to 872.5, a 1.3% increase [6] Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. Coking coal inventory also showed an overall increase, with the full - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory increasing by 56.9 to 940.4, a 6.4% increase [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken last week, market sentiment cooled significantly, and it is expected that the black market still has room for correction, but differentiation among varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [7]. - For iron ore, the supply decreased slightly week - on - week last week, demand increased marginally, and the supply - demand structure improved week - on - week. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the ore price may maintain the current oscillating and slightly strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Rebar prices corrected from high levels last week, hot - rolled coils oscillated, and the trends of coils and rebars diverged. The rebar 10 contract fell 25 to 3188, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 week - on - week to 3320 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points week - on - week and 4.30 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week and 11.89 tons year - on - year [15]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.39%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points week - on - week and 21.74 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 76.39%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points week - on - week and 23.97 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - The supply of five major steel products last week was 871.63 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 0.3%. Among them, rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons [28]. 1.3 Demand - From August 6th to 12th, the national cement delivery volume was 2.608 million tons, a decrease of 1.27% week - on - week and 19.88% year - on - year. The direct supply volume of infrastructure cement was 1.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week - on - week and 3.64% year - on - year. The speculative demand for building materials also declined [31]. - For hot - rolled coils, from August 1st to 10th, the national passenger car retail sales were 452,000 units, a decrease of 4% year - on - year and an increase of 6% compared with the same period last month. Manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [34]. 1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was - 47 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products last week was 14.1597 million tons, an increase of 406,100 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 2.95%. Rebar social inventory increased significantly, and the factory inventory also increased by 40,000 tons [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - plant inventory increased by 21,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 8,400 tons [45]. 1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 112, a narrowing of 5 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was - 9, a narrowing of 21 compared with last week [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 81, a deeper inversion of 8 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases [51]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the futures market was 251, an expansion of 36 compared with last week. The spot spread was 130, an expansion of 20 compared with last week [54]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated after a correction last week, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The 09 contract rose 7 to 790, with both trading volume and open interest declining. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.467 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in August was 30.543 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with last month and 1.2 million tons compared with last year [63]. - The weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 17.214 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons compared with last month and 610,000 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 8.099 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons compared with last month and 210,000 tons compared with last year [66]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 25.97 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons compared with last month and 320,000 tons compared with last year [69]. 2.3 Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week. Iron ore demand rebounded week - on - week, and it is expected to increase further next week [72]. - The average daily port trading volume last week was 954,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished their stocks as needed [76]. 2.4 Inventory - As of August 15th, the total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year [79]. - On August 14th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills was 27.7594 million tons, an increase of 196,600 tons compared with the previous period [82]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 9.93 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 24.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars week - on - week [85]. 2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 19.5, basically unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low level [89].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints Steel - In the short - term, steel inventory pressure is not significant. With demand shifting from the off - peak to the peak season, steel prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and be cautious about chasing long due to limited release of terminal demand. The main risk lies in the interference of coking coal supply expectations [1] Iron Ore - The shipment volume is expected to decline, while the iron level will remain high in August. Steel exports are strong, short - term iron water toughness persists. Considering the upcoming policies and potential production restrictions, iron ore prices will mainly follow steel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coke has potential for further price increases, and coking coal prices are generally stable with an upward bias. Supply is tight, and demand has some support. It is recommended to go long on dips for both coking coal 2601 and coke 2601, and switch to a positive spread strategy for both coke 9 - 1 and coking coal 9 - 1 [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - For rebar, spot prices in East China, North China, and South China mostly increased, while futures prices of different contracts also showed minor increases. For hot - rolled coils, spot prices remained stable, and futures prices decreased slightly [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased, and costs of different steelmaking processes in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also increased [1] Production - Daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6% to 240.7 tons, and the output of five major steel products increased by 0.1% to 867.4 tons. Rebar production decreased by 0.4%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.7% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.2% to 1351.9 tons, rebar inventory increased by 1.4% to 546.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.8% to 348.0 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 3.5%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.9%, rebar's apparent demand decreased by 6.1%, and hot - rolled coil's apparent demand increased by 1.5% [1] Iron Ore Price and Spread - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types mostly decreased, and spot prices also showed a downward trend. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 9.1%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 17.1% [4] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 11.9% to 2507.8 tons, and the national monthly import volume increased by 8.0% to 10594.8 tons. The global shipment volume decreased by 4.3% to 3061.8 tons [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 240.7 tons, national monthly pig iron output decreased by 3.0%, and national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.9% [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 0.6% to 13740.97 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.4% to 9012.1 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4] Coking Coal and Coke Price and Spread - Coking coal and coke futures prices showed a strong upward trend. The fifth round of coke price increase was officially implemented, with an increase of 50/55 yuan/ton. Coking coal auction prices were stable with an upward bias [6] Supply - Coke production increased slightly, while the production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased. Coal mine开工 decreased month - on - month [6] Demand - The demand for coke and coking coal was mainly supported by the high - level but slightly declining blast furnace pig iron production [6] Inventory - Coke inventory in coking plants and steel mills decreased, while port inventory increased slightly. Coking coal inventory in coking plants and steel mills increased, and port inventory decreased [6]

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly Report" and is from the Black Metal Research Center of Guomao Futures, dated July 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The market sentiment has cooled down, and short - term volatility has increased. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the far - month coking coal contracts hit the daily limit after consecutive limit - up boards. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. Different sub - sectors in the black metal industry have different supply - demand situations and investment outlooks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Steel - **Supply**: Neutral. Pig iron production decreased slightly within market expectations. Near September, production restrictions may occur due to important events. Short - process production may fluctuate in some areas during the peak power season, but it won't significantly impact the total output. Recently, the price of scrap steel has lagged behind, and some electric furnaces may increase their operating rates [6] - **Demand**: Neutral. After the price rebound, the trading volume improved, and the "buy on rising" mentality supported the demand. The spot market's liquidity is still locked. The large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the trading in the black metal sector [6] - **Inventory**: Bullish. The total inventory level is low, and the inventory accumulation during the off - season is not significant, which may trigger unexpected restocking [6] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis decreased slightly this week. The rb2510 basis in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 44 on Friday, down 20 from the previous week [6] - **Profit**: Bearish. Long - process steel mills still have profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, and the reduction in production has increased slightly [6] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The production links in the industry chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuation and moderately high absolute valuation [6] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. The market is waiting for the Politburo meeting in July to set the direction. The "anti - involution" in the industry has digested some optimistic expectations [6] - **Investment View**: Hold. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's guidance on policies in the second half of the year. The data shows the resilience of steel products, but the large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the black metal sector. Consider taking profit on positive cash - and - carry positions [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold; Arbitrage: None; Cash - and - carry: Take profit on rolling positions [6] 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Bullish. The five major steel products have not shown obvious inventory accumulation during the off - season. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills remained at a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate increased, indicating high demand for furnace materials [48] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bullish. Domestic over - production inspections have lowered the supply expectation. The port clearance has reached a high level, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production has rebounded from a low level, but the coking profit has decreased, and the cost of raw coal has increased, leading to faster price increases [48] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Downstream replenishment demand has been released, and the overall inventory of coking coal and coke has shifted downstream. The total inventory has continued to decline significantly [48] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis cost of coke and coking coal has increased, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills have a high profitability rate, while coking profits are negative and the cost of raw coal has risen rapidly [48] - **Summary**: Neutral. The off - season data of the black metal industry is still good, but the previous rapid rise in futures prices may have over - anticipated the market. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions; Arbitrage: Hold [48] 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Bullish. The shipping volume will seasonally increase in the following weeks, but the typhoon weather has affected the arrival and unloading rhythm. The arrival volume will decline later, and the supply pressure is not significant based on the current pig iron demand [94] - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly this week due to a temporary blast furnace maintenance. The steel mill profitability rate reached a new high this year, and the port inventory increased slightly [94] - **Inventory**: Neutral. Although the arrival volume usually increases in July and August, it is difficult to enter a large - scale inventory accumulation stage in the short term with high pig iron production [94] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profits are still high, so pig iron production can remain at a high level in the short term [94] - **Valuation**: Neutral. With high pig iron production, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [94] - **Summary**: Neutral. Pig iron production remained at a high level with small fluctuations. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. The port inventory accumulation is small, and there is still room for the port inventory to decline in the short term. It is not recommended to short the black metal market in the short term [94] - **Investment View**: Consolidation - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Hold [94]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the price center of the black - series products moved down, with significant differentiation in the supply - demand structure and price strength of various varieties. In the second half of the year, the steel market environment remains complex and volatile, facing risks such as supply - demand pressure and cost decline [2]. - The real demand of finished products is stronger than expected. The export maintains a high growth rate, and the domestic demand structure is significantly differentiated. The building material demand continues to decline, while the strip demand is significantly stronger [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore prices had limited downward drive due to high hot - metal demand, with the Platts Index down 8% cumulatively. Scrap steel prices had less pressure, with a 4% cumulative decline in the first half. Coking coal and coke were the weakest, with coking coal down over 30% and coke down about 27% [2][6]. - **Finished Products**: From January to May 2025, crude steel consumption was 374 million tons, down 1.2% year - on - year. The output of finished products remained high, and the steel mills' profitability was stable. Exports maintained a high growth rate, and domestic demand was differentiated. Building material demand declined, while strip demand was strong. The cumulative decline of rebar was 9%, and that of hot - rolled coil was 6% [2][6]. 3.2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Macro**: In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience, with a Q1 GDP growth of 5.4% and an expected H1 growth of about 5.3%. Fiscal policy was proactive, and monetary policy was flexible. However, the economy also faced challenges such as a complex external environment and real - estate market adjustments [19]. - **Steel Demand Analysis** - **Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, real - estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year. Construction and new - start areas declined, and sales showed signs of stabilization. The demand for steel in the real - estate sector will continue to be weak [20][23]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year. However, factors such as debt - repayment pressure and consumption - intensity decline may restrict the demand for steel in infrastructure [31]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to May 2025, manufacturing investment showed rapid growth and structural optimization, supported by industrial upgrading, export - structure optimization, and domestic - demand policies [40]. - **Exports**: From January to May 2025, steel exports remained at a high level, with cumulative steel exports of 48.48 million tons, up 8.6% year - on - year, and steel billet exports of 4.72 million tons, up 307% year - on - year. In the second half of 2025, the export volume may decline by 8 - 10 million tons [45]. - **Supply Analysis**: From January to May 2025, pig - iron production was 363 million tons, down 0.1% year - on - year, and crude - steel production was 432 million tons, down 1.7% year - on - year. To meet the energy - saving target, the crude - steel output in 2025 should not exceed 983 million tons. The iron - water output decline may be slightly stronger than that of crude steel, and the pattern of strong strips and weak building materials will continue [51][54]. 3.3. Crude - Steel Balance Sheet Deduction and Conclusion In the second half of 2025, the steel market environment is still complex. In the off - season, the supply - demand contradiction of finished products has not effectively accumulated, and the basis has weakened. The cost side may decline, and risks of supply - demand pressure and cost decline should be watched out for in the middle and late third quarter [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, most FOMC voters this year are more inclined to cut interest rates after July, and the loosening of interest rates may be beneficial to the global economic environment. China's manufacturing PMI has risen slightly, and the economy is showing a stable and positive trend. Fundamentally, the apparent demand for rebar is basically the same as last week, and the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down due to increased production; the output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. In general, the off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are in a relatively healthy position. There is no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. For iron ore, the recent increase in arrivals has put downward pressure on prices, while the relatively high iron - making water in the off - season prevents prices from showing a smooth unilateral trend. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, although the short - term market sentiment is improving, the fundamentals still point downward. For industrial silicon, although there is a short - term rebound, it still faces the problem of oversupply. For glass and soda ash, the medium - term supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and the prices are expected to be weak [3][6][10][11][13][15][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2,997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.066%) from the previous trading day, with 18,221 tons of registered warrants, unchanged from the previous day, and the main contract position decreased by 18,643 lots to 2.12417 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai it was 3,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,123 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%), with 67,543 tons of registered warrants, a decrease of 1,192 tons, and the main contract position increased by 999 lots to 1.525709 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it was 3,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the loosening of interest rates may be beneficial to the global economic environment, and China's manufacturing economy is showing a stable and positive trend. Fundamentally, the apparent demand for rebar is basically the same as last week, and the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down due to increased production; the output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are in a relatively healthy position. There is no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on market sentiment, the policy trends of the Politburo meeting in July, the repair rhythm of terminal actual demand, and the support of the cost side for finished product prices [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 715.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.14% (- 1.00), and the position decreased by 11,149 lots to 668,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.0858 million lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 34.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.57% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the latest iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and the end - of - quarter rush of mines was basically over, with shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreasing. The near - term arrivals decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons, with both blast furnace maintenance and复产. The terminal demand was relatively neutral. In terms of inventory, both the port deshipping volume and port inventory increased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory slightly decreased. In the future, the pig iron production remains stable, the basis has been shrinking, and the absolute price has rebounded to some extent. The recent increase in arrivals has put downward pressure on ore prices, while the relatively high pig iron production in the off - season prevents prices from showing a smooth unilateral trend. In addition, the performance of coking coal may also put pressure on iron ore [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On June 30, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.49% at 5,642 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) also closed down 0.48% at 5,344 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,450 yuan/ton, with a premium of 106 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Although the "Israel - Iran conflict" has eased and the price of crude oil has fallen, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market, especially the black sector, has not significantly declined. The reason is that the expected significant decline in demand data has not occurred, and the pig iron production has remained high, which has alleviated market concerns about demand. At the same time, the expectation of interest rate cuts overseas in July has also increased the expectation of domestic stimulus policies. In terms of fundamentals, the industrial pattern is still in surplus, the future demand is expected to weaken marginally, and there is still room for downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. Therefore, although manganese silicon has continued a narrow - range upward rebound in the short term, attention should be paid to the downward risk. For ferrosilicon, demand determines the price direction in a bear market, and the supply contraction cannot drive prices up strongly due to weak demand expectations. Although the current high - frequency data shows that the demand for coils and pig iron production are still resilient, it is expected that demand will weaken and pig iron production will decline in the future [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On June 30, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) rose significantly during the session and then fell back, finally closing up 0.37% at 8,060 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 8,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures; the price of 421 was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has continued to improve recently, and many previously declining varieties have rebounded significantly. However, compared with April 2024, the current market enthusiasm is significantly lower. Industrial silicon still faces the problem of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. The short - term rebound is driven by the rumor of a large factory's production cut, but in an oversupply situation, the supply reduction is difficult to maintain in the long term. Therefore, it is recommended to wait for a suitable position for hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: For glass, the spot price in Shahe on Monday was 1,126 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China it was 1,030 yuan, unchanged. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight boxes (- 0.96%) from the previous period, and an increase of 12.39% year - on - year. The inventory days were 30.5 days, a decrease of 0.3 days. For soda ash, the spot price was 1,223 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, with some enterprises reducing prices. As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7688 million tons, an increase of 1,900 tons (0.11%) from Thursday, with light soda ash inventory decreasing by 4,200 tons to 801,000 tons and heavy soda ash inventory increasing by 6,100 tons to 967,800 tons. The net position of both glass and soda ash had more short - position increases yesterday [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For glass, the real estate demand has not been significantly boosted, and the futures price is expected to be weak. For soda ash, although the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved, the medium - term supply is still loose and the inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, similar to thread [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, bullish bias and poor operability [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★, with a short - term bullish view [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, short - term bullish [1] Report's Core View - The overall market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, downstream industry conditions, and policies. Different varieties have different trends and outlooks, with some facing supply pressure, some having demand - related issues, and some showing potential for price increases or decreases [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures showed a decline and then a rebound. Thread demand remained stable this week, production continued to rise, and inventory depletion slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production remained high, and inventory slightly increased. High - furnace still has profits, and hot - metal production remains relatively high. However, the off - season acceptance capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. Downstream industries have weak demand, and the market is under pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron - ore futures rose slightly. Supply is at a high level globally, and there is an expectation of a volume rush at the end of the quarter. Domestic port inventories have started to rise steadily, increasing supply pressure. Demand from end - users has weakened in the off - season, but steel mills' profitability is okay, and they are not willing to cut production actively. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The price rose significantly during the day. There is an expectation of a price increase in the market. Hot - metal production continued to rise slightly to 242.18 tons per day. Coke profit is meager, and coking production has declined from the annual high. Overall coke inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is still low. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and there is some optimism in the market. Affected by crude - oil price fluctuations, the coke price is weak, but there may be an upward drive [4] Coking Coal - The price rose significantly during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, which may reduce output. Coking - coal mine production has continued to decline, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and the transaction price has risen slightly. Terminal inventory has continued to decline. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and there is some optimism in the market. Affected by the sharp decline in crude - oil prices, the coking - coal price is in a weak and volatile state, but may be in a strong and volatile state [5] Silicomanganese - The price volatility increased during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has started to rise, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. Attention should be paid to South 32's far - month contract price for August. In the long - term, manganese - ore inventory is increasing, and in the short - term, the inventory level is low, and mines' willingness to hold prices has increased. In the short - term, the spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are in short supply, and the price has risen slightly. The trading logic on the trading floor is changing faster, and it is bullish in the short - term [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated upward during the day. Hot - metal production has risen to over 242. Export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand remains high. Overall demand is okay. Ferrosilicon supply continues to decline, market transactions are average, and inventory has decreased. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery on the trading floor and reselling to downstream, which is conducive to inventory depletion. The trading logic on the trading floor is changing faster, and it is bullish in the short - term [7]