升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源：彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/25 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 4072.85 48.91 1522.00 1388.00 58.84 10777.00 变化 0.00 0.00 -23.00 -16.00 0.78 101.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 100.20 1.15 1.31 156.92 1.82 变化 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 交 易 数 据 日期 COMEX白银 上期所白银 黄金ETF持仓 白银ETF持仓 上金所白银 上金所黄金 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | ...

北京时间周一（11月24日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于100.271附近，现货黄金开盘于4065.22美元/盎 司，目前交投于4051.90美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于925.11元/克附近，沪金主力交投于930.14元/克附 近。 上一交易日美元指数收跌0.03%，报100.190，现货黄金收跌0.30%，报4064.74美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属纷纷下跌：现货白银收跌1.26%，报50.00美元/盎司；现货铂金收跌0.11%，报 1511.00美元/盎司；现货钯金收跌0.85%，至1374.75美元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 11月21日COMEX黄金库存1143.49吨，较前一交易日减少5.38吨；COMEX白银库存14329.46吨，较前一 交易日减少37.57吨。 11月21日SPDR黄金ETF持仓1040.57吨，较前一个交易日增加1.14吨；SLV白银ETF持仓15246.63吨，较 前一个交易日增加19.75吨。 11月21日延期补偿费支付方向：Au(t+d)--多付空，Ag(t+d)--空付多，mAu(t+d)--多付空。 摘要北京时间周一（11月24日）亚市盘中，美元指 ...

Group A: ETF Holdings - The article discusses the changes in ETF holdings, indicating a significant increase in holdings in mid-October followed by a series of reductions, reflecting institutional panic as the market declined [4][5]. - In November, there has been a slight but continuous increase in ETF holdings, suggesting renewed confidence in gold among investors [4][5]. Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The speculative sentiment in the gold market has remained skewed towards bearish, with reports indicating a consistent 60-40 or even 70-30 split, suggesting a lack of bullish momentum [8][9]. - For gold to initiate a new upward trend, a shift back to a more bullish sentiment (at least a 70-30 split) is necessary [9]. Group C: Interest Rate Decisions and Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a consensus among officials leaning towards hawkish policies, with concerns about inflation and public trust in the Fed [10][11]. - The Fed has decided to end its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, which may signal a shift from a tightening to a more accommodative monetary policy [12][14]. Group D: Non-Farm Payroll Insights - The article notes that the unemployment rate has remained around 4.3%, with expectations that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will not be particularly strong due to ongoing tariff issues [16][19]. - The impact of the non-farm payroll data on the market is highlighted, with specific thresholds indicating potential market reactions for both the dollar and gold [19]. Group E: December Layout - The article suggests that adjustments are ongoing, with a cautious approach recommended for participation in the market due to high volatility and increased risk [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The disclosure of the third-quarter reports for funds has drawn attention to the holdings of Central Huijin Investment, Central Huijin Asset Management, and its two special asset management plans, indicating their continued support for the stock market through stable ETF holdings [1] Group 1: Fund Holdings - Central Huijin Investment and Central Huijin Asset Management maintained their positions in broad-based ETFs, showing stability in their investment strategy [1] - Minor adjustments were made only to certain industry-themed ETFs, reflecting a cautious approach to sector-specific investments [1] Group 2: Fund Size - As of the end of the third quarter, the ETF holdings of Central Huijin Investment and Central Huijin Asset Management experienced a quarterly increase of over 200 billion, reaching approximately 1.55 trillion [1]

Core Insights - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop on October 21, with gold falling to $4106.82 per ounce, marking a decline of over 6% and the largest drop since August 2020 [1] - The decline in precious metals is attributed to profit-taking, a decrease in safe-haven demand due to easing global trade tensions, and a strengthening US dollar making these metals more expensive for buyers [1] - Changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation have introduced volatility in the gold market, with European leaders expressing strong support for the US stance on Ukraine and planning to increase pressure on Russia [1] Group 1 - Gold prices fell sharply, with a daily drop of $250, the largest since August 2020 [1] - Silver prices also declined over 8%, falling below $48 per ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that profit-taking is a primary reason for the price drop, alongside reduced safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar [1] Group 2 - ETF holdings of gold have not reached previous peak levels, indicating potential for further price movements [2] - Historical trends show that momentum in gold prices may eventually decline, leading to potential sell-offs if US economic data proves stronger than expected [2] - Silver prices have also seen a significant drop after an 80% increase earlier in the year, influenced by similar macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that gold prices have increased due to multiple favorable factors, including market expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining a wait-and-see approach before the upcoming interest rate meeting, uncertainty from the U.S. government fiscal deadlock, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East [1] - The stable demand for gold from global central banks and ETF holdings provides solid support for gold prices, effectively hedging against short-term volatility [1] - Traditional safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, along with the U.S. dollar, influence the attractiveness of gold [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through a key resistance level of 4380, suggesting a strong bullish trend, with a new support level established around 4300 [3] - The recommendation is to adopt a bullish stance, focusing on opportunities to enter long positions during price pullbacks, while maintaining patience due to market volatility [3] - A specific trading strategy suggests buying on dips in the range of 4318-4313, with a stop loss at 4300 and a target of 4380-4400 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, an increase of $600 or nearly 14% from the previous forecast of $4,300, driven by a 17% rise in gold prices since August 26 due to "sticky" fund inflows, primarily from Western ETF investments and central bank purchases [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Forecast and Drivers - The forecast indicates a potential 23% increase in gold prices over the next two years, with central bank purchases contributing 19 percentage points and a 5 percentage point contribution from increased ETF holdings due to Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][8]. - The key drivers of the recent gold price surge are identified as Western ETF inflows and central bank purchases, contrasting with stable speculative positions [4][8]. - Despite the higher starting point, Goldman Sachs maintains its expectation of a 23% price increase by the end of 2026, reflecting structural changes in the gold market driven by central banks and institutional investors [5][10]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases and Market Dynamics - Central bank purchases are expected to average 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, with emerging market central banks likely to continue diversifying their reserves into gold, contributing significantly to the projected price increase [8][9]. - The structural growth in central bank purchases is largely attributed to the trend of reserve diversification following the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022, with expectations that this trend will persist for three years [9][10]. - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, projected to be 100 basis points by mid-2026, are expected to boost Western ETF holdings, contributing positively to gold price increases [8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, an increase of $600 or nearly 14% from the previous estimate of $4,300, driven by a 17% rise in gold prices since August 26 due to persistent capital inflows, primarily from Western ETFs and central bank purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Price Forecast and Drivers - The forecast indicates a potential 23% increase in gold prices over the next two years, with central bank purchases contributing 19 percentage points and ETF holdings driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts contributing 5 percentage points [2]. - The key drivers of the recent gold price surge are identified as persistent capital inflows from Western ETFs and central bank purchases, contrasting with stable speculative positions [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains its price increase forecast despite a higher starting point, expecting central bank purchases to average 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, contributing significantly to the price increase [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - The structural growth in central bank purchases is attributed to the diversification trend following the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022, with expectations that this trend will continue for three years [3]. - The adjustment in forecasts reflects a structural change in the gold market driven by central banks and institutional investors, providing clear allocation signals for long-term investors [3]. - The risks associated with the upgraded gold price forecast are skewed to the upside, as private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may lead to ETF holdings exceeding implied valuations based on interest rates [2].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3643.70 with no change [3] - London Silver's latest price is 41.86 with no change [3] - London Platinum's latest price is 1369.00 with no change [3] - London Palladium's latest price is 1161.00 with no change [3] - WTI Crude's latest price is 63.57 with no change [3] - LME Copper's latest price is 9962.50 with a change of 20.00 [3] - The US Dollar Index's latest value is 97.37 with no change [3] - Euro to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.18 with no change [3] - Pound to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.36 with no change [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest exchange rate is 148.00 with no change [3] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.75 with a change of 0.02 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 16300.91 with no change [4] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1159.44, a decrease of 44.08 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 994.56, an increase of 18.90 [4] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15205.14 with no change [4] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1283.61 with no change [4] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, an increase of 1.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of Bitcoin spot ETFs, with institutional capital significantly increasing their market share, currently holding over 1.296 million BTC, which is nearly 6.5% of the circulating supply [1][5] Group 1: Institutional Dominance - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has emerged as a dominant player, managing approximately 744,500 BTC, representing about 3.3% of the total Bitcoin supply [3] - IBIT has been increasing its holdings at a rate of about 4,300 BTC per month, potentially adding around 130,000 BTC by the end of the year [3] - Wells Fargo has significantly increased its exposure to IBIT, raising its holdings from $26 million to over $160 million, indicating a shift from a passive to an active investment strategy [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The influx of ETF capital is tightening the supply-demand structure of the Bitcoin market, with net inflows surpassing the daily mining supply of approximately 450 BTC post-halving [5] - This structural change is leading to stronger price support while also increasing price sensitivity to macroeconomic factors and fund flows [5] - Bitcoin recently reached a historical high of $124,000, closely linked to expectations of interest rate cuts and strong ETF inflows [5] Group 3: Liquidity and Trading Challenges - The concentration of holdings in top funds like IBIT may lead to potential liquidity bottlenecks, as ETF shares cannot be directly redeemed for underlying Bitcoin [6] - The rising demand for efficient risk management tools is driving the development of new derivatives markets that combine traditional financial assets with cryptocurrencies [6] Group 4: Decentralized Trading Platforms - The value of decentralized exchanges like XBIT is being reassessed as centralized exchanges face potential liquidity constraints and stricter regulations [8] - XBIT allows users to retain actual control of their assets, executing trades through smart contracts without relying on centralized custodians [8] Group 5: Future Variables - The path to surpassing 1.5 million BTC in ETF holdings is not guaranteed, as various factors could alter the current trajectory, including macroeconomic changes and regulatory dynamics [9] - The concentration of holdings may raise systemic risk concerns, prompting regulatory scrutiny or market corrections [9] Group 6: Market Evolution - Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated over $50 billion in assets under management (AUM) in less than a year and a half, reshaping the market ecosystem [11] - The interaction between institutional products and the underlying scarce digital asset is entering a more complex phase, with significant implications for market dynamics [11]