美国总统特朗普重塑全球贸易格局的激进举措，以及他对美联储独立性的威胁，助长了今年早些时候的 黄金牛市。 "当前推动金银价格上涨的主要因素，是持续的实物需求叠加对宏观风险的敏感度回升，" Guardian Vaults的业务发展经理John Feeney表示。"我们看到的是动能持续增强而非受限，这表明市场存在本质上 的信心而非纯粹的投机泡沫。" 金价在一度突破每盎司4500美元大关再创新高后微跌。铂金下跌逾6%，同样从隔夜触及的历史高位回 落。 临近年底，部分交易员在贵金属市场经历一轮猛烈上涨后开始获利了结。即便如此，金价今年以来仍上 涨近70%，铂金价格则翻了一倍多。 技术指标支持了抛售行为。周三，黄金的14日相对强弱指数处于超买区间，预示着金价可能即将横盘整 理或出现回调。 金价近期上涨部分源于美国与委内瑞拉的紧张局势升级增强了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。交易员们也 押注美联储在连续三次会议降息后，明年将再度降低借贷成本，这会对不产生收益的贵金属构成利好。 黄金和白银均有望创下1979年以来最佳年度表现。贵金属价格走高主要得益于央行买盘增加以及交易所 交易基金（ETF）持续吸金。世界黄金协会的数据显示，今年除 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Influence factors: Affected by factors such as loose liquidity expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions, precious metal prices have strengthened again. Silver benefits from supply - demand imbalance and continuous inflow of ETF holdings, with funds boosting price elasticity. In the short - term, prices are expected to remain high and strong, but risks of sharp fluctuations exist due to accumulated leverage risks and potential weakening of macro - drivers. The better - than - expected Q3 GDP growth in the US weakens rate - cut expectations and may suppress prices. The short - term unilateral strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6]. - Medium - to - long - term view: In the long run, the Fed's easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased dollar credit risks will drive up the demand for precious metals. Gold prices are likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, London gold spot rose 1.4% to $4479.01 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.3% to $69.34 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 1.4% to $4511.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $69.41 per ounce. AU2602 rose 1.3% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and AG2602 rose 1.4% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price rose 8.7%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price fell 20.0%, the spread of gold TD - London rose 2.6%, and the spread of silver TD - London rose - 12.3%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 0.1%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio rose 0.9%. The spread of AU2604 - 2602 rose 30.2%, and the spread of AG2604 - 2602 rose 50.0% [5]. 3. Position Data - As of December 22, 2025, compared with December 19, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR rose 1.14% to 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV rose 3.32% to 16599.25081 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 2.74%, non - commercial short positions rose 1.89%, and net long positions rose 2.91%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions rose 10.71%, non - commercial short positions rose 0.92%, and net long positions rose 16.07% [5]. 4. Inventory Data - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.18% to 93711 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory fell 0.20% to 899663 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory rose 0.32% to 36120091 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.68% to 450643486 troy ounces [5]. 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell - 0.07% to 7.05. The US dollar index fell - 0.46% to 98.26, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell - 1.15% to 3.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.17%, the VIX fell - 5.57% to 14.08, the S&P 500 rose 0.64% to 6878.49, and NYWEX crude oil rose 2.49% to 57.95 [5]. 6. Market Review - On December 23, 2023, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.73% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 4.3% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5].

铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铂金：继续脉冲式上涨；钯金：突破前高向前迈进 强弱分析：铂金偏强、钯金偏强 本周广铂及广钯强势拉升，周涨幅均在15%以上。境外铂钯（伦敦及纽 约）同样强势，整周都处在境内外双市场共振上涨的行情之中。涨势如 虹一方面因为美元弱势，支撑具有金融属性品种价格；更多的还是因为 伦敦市场现货紧张，境内外投资情绪高涨，"薄盘效应"下铂钯的价格 更容易被抬升。 在本周，铂钯的跨市场和期现套利窗口均迅速打开，在周四达到阶段性 峰值，周五由于广期所规定单日开仓上限500手，叠加亚盘外盘金银有 所撤步，广铂周五收阴，广钯小幅收涨，随后周五夜盘境外铂钯走势重 回强劲。由于伦敦铂金的现货紧张局面不改，同时铂钯ETF持续流入；技 术面上铂钯已经强势突破许多关键点位，和6 ...

2025.12.16 周二 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 A、关于ETF持仓 自十一月以来，减持和增持分化的非常严重。 两个月的时间，增持达到了14次，减持10次，但是从圈出来的地方可见，增持一般发生在非常密集的方位的，减持呢，一直是断断续续的。 | 用和营型同意论要 | 日期 (美国时间) | 总库存(肥) | 增持/减持(吨) | 总价值(美元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 東 | 2025年12月12日 | 1053.12 | 2.29 | 147163302537.55 | | 黄金 | 2025年12月11日 | 1050.83 | 4.01 | 142905733606.67 | | 黄金 | 2025年12月10日 | 1046.82 | -1.15 | 141346172474.77 | | 菓子 | 2025年12月09日 | 1047.97 | -1.14 | 141429801831.04 | | 黄金 | 2025年12月08日 | 1049.11 | -1.14 | 141256928064.95 | | 菓子 | 2025年1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum group metal prices are strong following the rise in gold and silver prices, but there is a risk of a short - term pullback. The prices of platinum and palladium have increased this month, but the driving force of the spot market has weakened, and the tight overseas spot pattern has eased. With the ETF holdings showing mediocre performance, attention should be paid to the price decline risk when the trading enthusiasm in the precious metal sector fades. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see approach for platinum and palladium currently [3][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Movements**: NYMEX platinum price rose 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce this month. The platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have also seen price increases since their listing on November 27 [10][21][24] - **Implied Lease Rates**: The one - month implied lease rates of platinum and palladium have declined, indicating a relief in the tight overseas spot situation. The platinum one - month implied lease rate dropped from 24.1% on November 4 to 15.03% on December 4, and that of palladium fell from 11.71% to 6.89% [10] - **ETF Holdings**: Overseas major platinum ETF total holdings decreased from 76.04 tons to 75.88 tons this month, while palladium ETF total holdings remained around 14.8 tons [10] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market expects an 84.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in the December meeting, and a 15.2% probability of keeping the rate unchanged. The easing expectation has been almost fully priced, and there is a risk of a decline in precious metal prices [10] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum and Palladium Prices**: NYMEX platinum price increased by 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose by 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce. The domestic platinum and palladium futures prices also had small increases [21][24] - **Domestic Platinum Premium**: Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the domestic platinum premium has significantly rebounded. As of December 4, the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price was 434.2 yuan/gram [27] - **Lease Rates**: As of December 4, the platinum and palladium one - month implied lease rates were at the highest levels in the same period of the past five years but showed obvious weakening signs in the short term [31] - **CFTC Positions**: The CFTC positions of platinum and palladium have not been updated to the latest reporting period [36][39] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **ETF Holdings**: As of December 4, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 75.87 tons, and those of palladium ETFs were 14.8 tons [50][53] - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of December 4, the CME platinum inventory was 19.14 tons [57] - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory as of December 4 was 5,362 kilograms, with a decrease of 25.93 kilograms compared to November 25 [62][63] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [67][68] - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024 [70][71] - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in October were 10.23 tons, showing a decline from September, and palladium imports in October were 3.1 tons, a significant drop from September [74][77] - **Automobile Production**: The report presents data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US, but no clear conclusion is drawn from these data [79][82][85] - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand deficit of 14.29 tons in 2025, and the palladium market is expected to have a supply - demand surplus of 3.5 tons [88][89] 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads of NYMEX platinum [93][97] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: The report shows the 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads of NYMEX palladium [106][102] - **London - NYMEX Spreads**: The report provides the spreads between London spot platinum and palladium prices and NYMEX prices [108]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4072.85 with no change [1] - London Silver's latest price is 48.91 with no change [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1522.00, down 23.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1388.00, down 16.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 58.84, up 0.78 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10777.00, up 101.50 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest price is 100.20, up 0.05 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest price is 1.15 with no change [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest price is 1.31 with no change [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest price is 156.92, up 0.51 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest price is 1.82 with no change [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 14329.69, up 0.24 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 532.30, up 13.03 [2] - Gold ETF's latest position is 1040.86, up 0.29 [2] - Silver ETF's latest position is 15257.92 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 822.42 with no change [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with no change [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 100.271, while spot gold opened at $4065.22 per ounce and is currently trading at $4051.90 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the US dollar index close down 0.03% at 100.190, and spot gold fell 0.30% to $4064.74 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals also experienced declines, with spot silver down 1.26% at $50.00 per ounce, platinum down 0.11% at $1511.00 per ounce, and palladium down 0.85% at $1374.75 per ounce [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - As of November 21, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 5.38 tons to 1143.49 tons, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by 37.57 tons to 14329.46 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 1.14 tons to 1040.57 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 19.75 tons to 15246.63 tons [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Michigan University current conditions index reached a historic low, while the preliminary manufacturing PMI from S&P Global hit a four-month low, and the services PMI reached a four-month high [6]

Group A: ETF Holdings - The article discusses the changes in ETF holdings, indicating a significant increase in holdings in mid-October followed by a series of reductions, reflecting institutional panic as the market declined [4][5]. - In November, there has been a slight but continuous increase in ETF holdings, suggesting renewed confidence in gold among investors [4][5]. Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The speculative sentiment in the gold market has remained skewed towards bearish, with reports indicating a consistent 60-40 or even 70-30 split, suggesting a lack of bullish momentum [8][9]. - For gold to initiate a new upward trend, a shift back to a more bullish sentiment (at least a 70-30 split) is necessary [9]. Group C: Interest Rate Decisions and Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a consensus among officials leaning towards hawkish policies, with concerns about inflation and public trust in the Fed [10][11]. - The Fed has decided to end its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, which may signal a shift from a tightening to a more accommodative monetary policy [12][14]. Group D: Non-Farm Payroll Insights - The article notes that the unemployment rate has remained around 4.3%, with expectations that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will not be particularly strong due to ongoing tariff issues [16][19]. - The impact of the non-farm payroll data on the market is highlighted, with specific thresholds indicating potential market reactions for both the dollar and gold [19]. Group E: December Layout - The article suggests that adjustments are ongoing, with a cautious approach recommended for participation in the market due to high volatility and increased risk [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The disclosure of the third-quarter reports for funds has drawn attention to the holdings of Central Huijin Investment, Central Huijin Asset Management, and its two special asset management plans, indicating their continued support for the stock market through stable ETF holdings [1] Group 1: Fund Holdings - Central Huijin Investment and Central Huijin Asset Management maintained their positions in broad-based ETFs, showing stability in their investment strategy [1] - Minor adjustments were made only to certain industry-themed ETFs, reflecting a cautious approach to sector-specific investments [1] Group 2: Fund Size - As of the end of the third quarter, the ETF holdings of Central Huijin Investment and Central Huijin Asset Management experienced a quarterly increase of over 200 billion, reaching approximately 1.55 trillion [1]

Core Insights - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop on October 21, with gold falling to $4106.82 per ounce, marking a decline of over 6% and the largest drop since August 2020 [1] - The decline in precious metals is attributed to profit-taking, a decrease in safe-haven demand due to easing global trade tensions, and a strengthening US dollar making these metals more expensive for buyers [1] - Changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation have introduced volatility in the gold market, with European leaders expressing strong support for the US stance on Ukraine and planning to increase pressure on Russia [1] Group 1 - Gold prices fell sharply, with a daily drop of $250, the largest since August 2020 [1] - Silver prices also declined over 8%, falling below $48 per ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that profit-taking is a primary reason for the price drop, alongside reduced safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar [1] Group 2 - ETF holdings of gold have not reached previous peak levels, indicating potential for further price movements [2] - Historical trends show that momentum in gold prices may eventually decline, leading to potential sell-offs if US economic data proves stronger than expected [2] - Silver prices have also seen a significant drop after an 80% increase earlier in the year, influenced by similar macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [2]