Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The U.S. soybeans are fluctuating narrowly, oscillating strongly above the 1000-point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in the U.S. soybean-producing areas. Domestic soybean meal has rebounded with fluctuations, driven by U.S. soybeans and the low inventory of domestic oil mills, but the increase in imported soybeans arriving in May and the decline in spot prices limit the rebound space. The increase in imported Brazilian soybeans arriving and the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations interact, causing it to return to a range-bound pattern in the short term [8]. - Domestic soybeans are oscillating downward, affected by the increase in imported soybeans arriving and the expected increase in production of new-season domestic soybeans. However, the cost-effectiveness advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price bottom. In the short term, it is affected by the interaction between the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans arriving [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No information provided 2. Recent News - The Sino-US tariff negotiation reached a short-term agreement, which is beneficial for U.S. soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the U.S. soybean-producing areas recently led to a short-term decline after the U.S. soybean futures market rose. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000-point mark, awaiting further guidance on U.S. soybean planting, imported soybeans arriving, and the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. In the short term, the soybean products returned to an oscillating pattern due to the outcome of the Sino-US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig farming profits led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post-festival price expectation. Coupled with the weakening pressure of the Sino-US tariff war, soybean meal entered a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supported the short-term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the U.S. soybean-producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino-US tariff war. Soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the final South American soybean yield and the subsequent Sino-US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely to Rise**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans arriving; low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal; uncertainties in the weather of the U.S. soybean-producing areas [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: The total volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues [13]. Soybeans - **Likely to Rise**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [14]. - **Likely to Fall**: The expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest continues, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in production of new-season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybean products [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal Transaction Data**: From May 16th to May 27th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3000 - 3098 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 8.69 - 88.95 tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2420 - 2540 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small, mostly below 0.22 tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrowed [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From May 19th to May 27th, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybeans in Jiamusi remained at 4180 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2860 - 2890 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From May 15th to May 27th, the soybean warehouse receipts showed a downward trend, while the soybean meal warehouse receipts decreased significantly on May 23rd and continued to decline thereafter [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show that the total supply and demand of soybeans are generally increasing, and the inventory consumption ratio fluctuates within a certain range [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025, including the sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod-setting rate, leaf-falling rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply and demand reports from November 2024 to May 2025 show changes in the harvest area, yield per unit, production, ending stocks, exports, and crushing volume of soybeans in the United States, as well as the production of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina [41]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in soybean meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US soybean futures market was closed for Memorial Day. The short - term trend of US soybeans is a strong - side oscillation, waiting for further guidance from the follow - up Sino - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybean meal oscillated and closed higher, driven by US soybeans and the low inventory of domestic oil mills, but the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans in May and the decline in spot prices limited the rebound space. The short - term trend will return to the range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for soybean meal M2509 is between 2920 and 2980 [8]. - Domestic soybeans oscillated and declined, affected by US soybeans and the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. However, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price bottom. The short - term trend is affected by the follow - up Sino - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The expected trading range for soybean A2507 is between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt Not provided in the given content. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back after the US soybean futures market hit a high. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. In the short term, the soybean and soybean meal markets returned to an oscillatory pattern due to the outcome of the Sino - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the short - term trend of soybean meal entered an oscillatory and weakening pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supported the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. In the short term, soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and further guidance on the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal; variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Bean - Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From May 15th to May 26th, the transaction price and volume of soybean meal and bean - rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and bean - rapeseed meal decreased from 651 on May 15th to 494 on May 26th [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From May 16th to May 26th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. For example, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu decreased from 2920 on May 16th to 2870 on May 26th [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From May 14th to May 26th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed. For example, the soybean meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31786 on May 14th to 27483 on May 26th [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory of global and domestic soybeans. For example, the global soybean output increased from 316137 thousand tons in 2015 to 422262 thousand tons in 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25 is presented. For example, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season reached 98.5% on January 5th [33][34][38]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main short positions decreased, and the funds flowed in [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 弱现实强预期，粕类偏强震荡 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 一 .中美关税谈判短期落地 CONTENTS 目 录 弱现实强预期，粕类偏强震荡 一.中美关税谈判短期落地 二.粕类供需基本面分析 三.短期回归震荡，中期震荡偏强 豆菜粕2月后日K线走势 美豆2月后和ICE油菜籽今年日K线走势 • 1.中美关税战回到"解放前" ； • 2.美国对其他国家先行谈判； • 3.中美关税谈判90天后仍有变数。 1.中美关税战回到"解放前" • 3月3日：美国将对华额外关税提高至20% 特朗普签署行政命令，宣布将对中国大陆商品的额外 关税从10%提高至20%。 • 2025年3月10日起，中国对原产于美国的部分进口商品 加征关税：对鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花加征15%关税； 对高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织，豆粕维持震荡 （豆粕周报5.19-5.23） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆冲高回落，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏强，中 | | | 短期妥协 | | 性或偏多 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期回升，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量回归高位 | | 计维持继续回升， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2900至2960区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，特朗普威胁对欧洲加征关税和美豆种植天气整体良好，美豆短期 偏强震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回 落，5月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格下跌限制反弹空间，进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美 关税谈判后续交互影响，短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2890（华东），基差-62，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存12.17万吨，上周10.12万吨，环比增加20.26%，去年同期62.31万吨， 同比 ...

Group 1 - Tokyo stock market rebounded on the 23rd, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 174.60 points to close at 37160.47, an increase of 0.47% [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange stock price index increased by 18.43 points, closing at 2735.52, reflecting a rise of 0.68% [1] - The rise was influenced by the overnight increase in the Nasdaq index, particularly in high-tech stocks, and a slight depreciation of the yen, which boosted expectations for improved performance from export-related companies [1] Group 2 - Over 80% of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with other products rising by 3.62% and non-ferrous metals increasing by nearly 3% [1] - However, six sectors, including mining, securities and commodity futures trading, and electric and gas industries, experienced slight declines [1] - Despite improvements in Japanese corporate sentiment and a better PMI report from the US, the Tokyo stock market has struggled to maintain trading enthusiasm, with the 200-day moving average acting as a resistance level [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic soybean meal may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term due to variables in Sino - US tariff negotiations, technical support, and weather uncertainties in US soybean - producing areas, while the expected high yield of South American soybeans suppresses the rebound height of the US soybean market and the increasing arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China [8]. - Domestic soybeans are in a relatively strong range - bound state, influenced by the interaction of the US soybean situation and the increasing arrival of imported soybeans, with the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supporting the price, but the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing the price increase [10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. The US soybean market is in a short - term upward trend, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean market and the low inventory of domestic oil mills, but the increase in imported soybeans in May and the decline in spot prices limit the rebound space [13]. - The domestic import volume of soybeans reached a high in May, and the short - term trend of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is affected by the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [14]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [15]. 4. Fundamental Data Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in East China is 2880, with a basis of - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price [8]. - The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 12.17 tons, a 20.26% increase from last week and an 80.47% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. Soybeans - The spot price of soybeans is 4200, with a basis of 6, indicating a premium to the futures price [10]. - The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 586.83 tons, a 9.71% increase from last week and a 33.95% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data Soybean Meal - The long positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. Soybeans - The short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic indicators for April demonstrate the resilience of China's economy, with some data exceeding market expectations, particularly an 8.1% year-on-year increase in goods exports in USD terms [1] - Despite a decline in exports and imports with the US by 21% and 13% respectively, exports to non-US regions have significantly increased, indicating a need to reassess the impact of tariffs on the economy in May and June [1] - The expectation for further policy easing may need to be re-evaluated based on the stable growth in production and demand, contrary to previous market expectations of economic pressure [1] Group 2 - The next phase will see more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic economic cycle, particularly through the real estate market [2] - From January to April, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7%, indicating a broad fiscal expenditure growth of over 7% [2] - The adjustment of micro-policies is crucial, as current low price phenomena are influenced not only by supply relations but also by the micro-market environment and pricing systems [2] Group 3 - The expansion of domestic demand strategy should focus on structural adjustments rather than just short-term stimulus, requiring a shift in understanding macro policies from crisis management to mid-term structural adjustments [3] - A better understanding of the relationship between policy choices, coordination of macro and micro policies, and the balance between short-term policies and mid-term reforms is essential for enhancing economic resilience [3]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January to April 2025 shows a narrowing decline in tax and land transfer revenues, alongside proactive government spending, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy in response to economic conditions [2][3]. Revenue Summary - National general public budget revenue for the first four months reached 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, which is a narrowing of 0.7% compared to the previous month [2]. - Tax revenue for the same period totaled 655.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, but April marked the first month of positive growth at 1.9% [5]. - Major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic VAT at 262.54 billion yuan (up 1.8%), domestic consumption tax at 65.02 billion yuan (up 1.8%), and personal income tax at 53.76 billion yuan (up 7.4%) [5]. - Non-tax revenue growth has slowed to 7.7%, significantly below the three-year average of 11.1% [5]. Expenditure Summary - General public budget expenditure for January to April was 9.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, exceeding the annual expected growth rate of 4.4% [7]. - Social welfare, education, and health expenditures rose by 6.6%, contributing 2.9% to total fiscal spending [7]. - Infrastructure-related spending decreased by 2.3%, but the decline is narrowing, indicating potential future improvements as special government bonds are issued [7][8]. - Government fund expenditure reached 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, driven by accelerated special bond issuance [8]. Debt and Policy Outlook - The issuance of government bonds, including special bonds, has increased significantly, with a total increase of 3.7 trillion yuan in government debt from January to May [8]. - Future fiscal policies are expected to focus on enhancing consumer spending, social welfare, and support for real estate projects [8][9].

不少人把5月12日的中美高层会谈当成中美谈判，把《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称《声 明》）当成谈判达成的协议，这显然存在一定误解。在会谈之前，今年截至5月12日，中美各自给对方加 征的关税分别为125%和145%，会谈之后，双方声明均免除对方其中的91%关税，另外24%的关税各自都 延期90天执行，并且在这90天内为这部分关税究竟征不征，少征还是多征进行谈判。以下就接下来的关税 谈判前景及对中国出口和经济的影响、我们应该如何应对展开讨论。 "芬太尼关税"能减免吗？ 年初至今，美国对中国加征的关税且目前仍是实施的高达30%，其中的20%是美国以中国处置芬太尼不力 为幌子，分别在今年二、三月份各加征10%的关税。为此，中国决定从2月10日起，对原产于美国的部分 进口商品加征10%或者15%的关税。其中，对煤炭、液化天然气加征15%关税；对原油、农业机械、大排 量汽车、皮卡加征10%关税；自2025年3月10日起，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税：鸡肉、小 麦、玉米、棉花加征15%关税，对高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品加征10%关 税。 显然我国对"芬太尼关税"的反制是偏温和的，主要 ...