Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The relaxation of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to export expectations, and there are fluctuations in the production of multiple overseas steel mills. However, due to the traditional off - season of consumption, the destocking of domestic electrolytic copper is difficult, which may cause adjustments in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to support and pressure levels [3]. Summary by Relevant Directory Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On June 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,290, with a volume of 64,136 lots, an increase of 410 compared to the previous day; the open interest was 209,523 lots, an increase of 838; the inventory was 33,373 tons, a decrease of 373 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,310, an increase of 35 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 20, a decrease of 375; the spot premium or discount in different regions showed various changes; the spreads between different contract months also changed, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 10 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on June 11, 2025 was 9,647, a decrease of 78; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 119,450; the spreads between different contract periods also changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The total inventory on June 11, 2025 was 4.8065 million tons, a decrease of 0.09 million tons compared to the previous day [2]. Industry Information - **Upstream**: In June 2025, the overall starting rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises is expected to increase by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56%. Some mines have production plans and issues, such as the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine may resume production in late June, and some mines need to be shut down for maintenance. The import volume of copper concentrates may increase, while the production and import volume of scrap copper may decrease [2][3]. - **Downstream**: The capacity utilization rate of some copper - related downstream industries may decline in June, such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper foil, etc., affected by factors such as the off - season of consumption and insufficient orders. However, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase [3]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the support level of 76,000 - 78,000 and the pressure level of 80,000 - 82,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9,000 - 9,300 and the pressure level of 9,800 - 10,000 for London copper, and the support level of 4.5 - 4.5 and the pressure level of 5.0 - 5.5 for US copper [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The rating for coke is "sideways" [1]. - The rating for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. The market is becoming less sensitive to Sino - US trade frictions, and China's monetary policy continues to strengthen. The real - estate policy may accelerate the industry's bottom - hitting process, and the rumored crude steel production limit policy could change the market's long - short balance [4]. - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory topping and safety and environmental protection restrictions. The key signals to watch are mine - end active or administrative production cuts. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost of coke is likely to provide support, and factors like cost rebound or crude steel reduction boosting industrial chain profits could drive up the price of coke [5]. - In extreme market conditions, coking coal is the main battlefield for long - short games. There is a possibility of short - sellers pushing prices down again. The market bottom can be confirmed by significant position reduction with rapid price decline or mine - end production cuts. Short - term advice is to hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Mine开工率 decreased slightly, with 523 mines reporting an 86.3%开工率 (-2.96) and 110 coal - washing plants reporting a 60.59%开工率 (-0.96). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises remained flat at 74.93% (-0.15) [2]. Inventory - Upstream inventory increased, with 523 mines having 447.53 million tons of clean coal inventory (+37.08) and coal - washing plants having 214.74 million tons of clean coal inventory (+11.48). Downstream inventory decreased, with 247 steel mills having 798.75 million tons of inventory (+7.54), 230 coking enterprises having 737.96 million tons of inventory (-14.6), and port inventory at 301.56 million tons (-4.53) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal was reported at 878 yuan/ton (-15), the active contract was at 783.5 yuan/ton (-1.5), the basis was 114.5 yuan/ton (-13.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -9.5 yuan/ton (-3) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises remained flat at 74.93% (-0.15). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased to 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output was 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3]. Inventory - Upstream inventory increased, with 230 coking enterprises having 88.41 million tons of inventory (+10.08). Downstream inventory decreased, with 247 steel mills having 645.8 million tons of inventory (-9.13) and port inventory at 214.15 million tons (-3.03) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract was at 1356 yuan/ton (+7), the basis was 10 yuan/ton (-7), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -17.5 yuan/ton (-2) [3].

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The US and China have reached a preliminary framework for trade negotiations, indicating a mutual desire for a stable foreign trade environment to support domestic economic development [1][2] - The US is considering lifting recent restrictions on various sectors, contingent on China easing its export restrictions on rare earths [1] Group 2: Gaming Industry Support - Zhejiang province has introduced measures to support the international expansion of the gaming industry, focusing on nurturing market players and promoting high-quality 3A game projects [3] - Local governments are increasingly implementing policies to enhance the global influence of gaming brands, reflecting a growing emphasis on the international market [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Payment Terms - Several Chinese automotive companies, including BYD and Xiaomi, have committed to keeping payment terms within 60 days in response to new regulations aimed at improving the payment environment for small and medium enterprises [5][6] - The effectiveness of this regulation remains to be seen, especially as many new energy vehicle companies face financial pressures and may struggle to meet these terms [5][6] Group 4: Smartphone Market Trends - A UBS survey indicates that the expected replacement cycle for smartphones has extended from 29.7 months to 31.1 months, reflecting a trend towards longer device usage [7] - The decline in purchase intent for smartphones, particularly in the US market, suggests a saturation in the market with little innovation in hardware [7][8] Group 5: Cloud Services Market - According to IDC, ByteDance's Volcano Engine holds a dominant 46.4% market share in China's public cloud large model service market, significantly outpacing competitors like Baidu and Alibaba [9][10] - The competitive landscape has shifted as traditional cloud service providers face new demands from AI large models, allowing Volcano Engine to leverage its internal technology for market advantage [9][10] Group 6: Tencent Music Acquisition - Tencent Music has announced a $1.26 billion cash acquisition of Ximalaya, aiming to enhance its presence in the long audio content market [11][12] - The merger is expected to combine Tencent's music streaming capabilities with Ximalaya's strengths in audiobooks, potentially revitalizing Ximalaya's market position amid increasing competition [11][12] Group 7: Tesla's Autonomous Driving Developments - Tesla plans to deliver its first fully autonomous vehicle in Texas, marking a significant step in its autonomous driving technology, although it currently remains at Level 2 automation [13][14] - The introduction of Robotaxi services is also on the horizon, which could enhance Tesla's market confidence and performance [13][14] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% and trading volume decreasing to 1.26 trillion yuan [15] - Various sectors, including rare earths and automotive parts, showed strong performance, while others like nuclear power and biopharmaceuticals faced declines [15][16]

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The US and China have reached a preliminary framework for trade negotiations, indicating a mutual desire for a stable foreign trade environment to support domestic economic growth [1][2] - The US is considering lifting recent restrictions on various sectors, contingent on China easing its export restrictions on rare earths [1] - Both countries have demonstrated that a cooperative relationship benefits them, while conflict leads to mutual harm [1] Group 2: Gaming Industry Support - Zhejiang province has introduced measures to support the international expansion of the gaming industry, focusing on nurturing market players and promoting high-quality 3A game projects [3] - Local governments are increasingly implementing policies to enhance the global influence of gaming brands, reflecting a growing emphasis on the international market [3] - The success of games like "Black Myth: Wukong" has prompted a stronger focus on developing high-quality games for global audiences [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Payment Terms - Multiple automotive companies, including BYD and Xiaomi, have committed to keeping payment terms within 60 days in response to new regulations aimed at improving the payment environment for small and medium enterprises [5][6] - The new regulation is designed to address the issue of delayed payments, which has been a common practice in the industry [5] - The effectiveness of this regulation remains to be seen, especially in a competitive market where price wars are prevalent [6] Group 4: Smartphone Market Trends - A UBS survey indicates that the expected replacement cycle for smartphones has extended to 2.6 years, reflecting a mature market with limited hardware innovations [7][8] - Consumer intent to purchase new smartphones has decreased, particularly in the US, where interest dropped significantly [7] - The lack of compelling new features has led consumers to retain their devices longer, impacting sales for manufacturers [7][8] Group 5: Cloud Services Market - ByteDance's Volcano Engine has captured 46.4% of the Chinese public cloud large model service market, surpassing competitors like Baidu and Alibaba [9][10] - The company has adopted aggressive pricing strategies to attract clients from established cloud service providers [9] - The demand for AI large models has leveled the playing field among cloud service providers, allowing newer entrants to compete effectively [10] Group 6: Tencent Music Acquisition - Tencent Music has announced a $1.26 billion cash acquisition of Ximalaya, aiming to expand its presence in the long audio content market [11][12] - This acquisition is seen as a strategic move to enhance user experience and creator revenue amid increasing competition in the audio content space [11] - The integration of resources from both companies is expected to strengthen their market position, although user base differences may pose challenges [12] Group 7: Tesla's Autonomous Driving Developments - Tesla plans to deliver its first fully autonomous vehicle in Texas, marking a significant step in its self-driving technology rollout [13][14] - The vehicle will utilize Tesla's Full Self-Driving software, although it currently operates at Level 2 autonomy [13] - Safety remains a critical concern as the company navigates the challenges of achieving full autonomy [14]

文章来源 本文摘自：2025年6月10日发布的 5月出口增速回落但韧性仍强 刘越男 ，资格证书编号： S0880516030003 陈 笑 ，资格证书编号： S0880518020002 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 报告导读： 5 月出口受关税及上年高基数影响，随中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，出海链 受益，部分对美敞口高的公司望迎估值修复。 5 月出口增速趋缓。 1) 海关总署披露 5 月进出口数据，按美元计进出口增速 1.3%/ 环比 -3.3pct ，其 中出口增速 4.8%/ 环比 -3.3pct 、进口增速 -3.4%/ 环比 -3.2pct ；我们认为主要因关税冲击叠加上 年高基数影响，但出口在同比减少 2 个工作日的情况下仍正增凸显外贸韧性，我们认为得益于中美会谈后 的政策利好、贸易伙伴持续扩容及外贸企业通过保税物流、转口贸易等模式灵活应对关税壁垒的能力提 升； 2) 分区域： 5 月对美国 / 欧盟出口增速分别 -35/12%( 前值分别 -21/8%) ，对美出口下滑较显 著；对非洲 / 东盟 / 拉美出口增速分别 33/15/2%( 前值分别 25/21/17%) ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月11日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指反弹，静待中美谈判结果 市场回顾 1. 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利"，标普纳指刷新日高，中概指数涨幅扩大。 2. 美国据称接近达成协议，部分豁免对墨钢铁关税，美国钢铁股盘后跳水，墨西哥比索一度转涨。 核心观点 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利"，今天股指有所反弹，回补昨天部分跌幅。目前海外不确定性风险较大，同 时最新经济数据显示内需偏弱问题仍存，分别从风险偏好以及盈利预期两方面对股指上行有所抑制，短期 内指数持续上行有较大阻力。不过基本面偏弱且关税影响仍将继续的情况下，市场利好政策托底预期有所 上升，市场底部支撑力量仍较为充足，重点关注6月18日至19日召开的陆家嘴论坛，将发布若干金融政 策。短期内建议观望为主，等待中美贸易谈判的结果。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 今日股指集体收涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.75%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落1599亿元。 期指方面，IF放量上涨，其余品种均缩量上涨。 重要资讯 IH升贴水率 sour ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 11 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观利好再现，钢矿震荡走高 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.67%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹现实矛盾不大，悲观预期修复驱动下钢价震荡企稳，但供需双弱局 面下基本面并未好转，淡季上行驱动也不强，后续走势料将延续低位震 荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价低位回升，录得 0.78%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，供强需弱局面下热卷基本面有所走弱，库存开始增加，热卷价格继 续承压运行，相对利好则是中美贸易风险暂缓，预计后续延续低位震荡 运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价再度走强，录得 1.00%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，市场情绪回暖，贴水矿价震荡走高，但供强需弱局面铁矿石基本面 在走弱，矿价仍易承压，上行驱动不强，预计矿价延续低位震荡运行态 势，关注铁水变化情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current soybean meal market presents a mixed situation. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area and potential tariff policies support the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal on dips [3]. - Urea prices are currently at a historical low. After wheat harvesting, with the support of agricultural demand and exports, prices may bounce back, but overall remains weak without significant changes in export policies [5]. - Copper prices are fluctuating within a range. They are highly susceptible to global trade trends and Fed inflation and interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to recent CPI data and China - US trade negotiations [10]. - The rebound of lithium carbonate is mainly due to improved macro - level sentiment rather than fundamentals. It is advisable to short on rebounds [12]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. OPEC+ production increases and supply - demand factors need to be considered [13]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [15]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure and improved commodity sentiment [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level, facing inventory pressure and slow downstream recovery [18]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, with high supply and low demand [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to be weak in the short - term, pressured by inventory and weak demand [21]. - For coking coal, the supply pressure has eased slightly, but the fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. - Rebar may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks. Track steel mill production cuts and inventory data [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term, with a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Commodities Soybean Meal - The 09 contract of soybean meal opened higher and rose today, with a closing increase of 0.93%. In the US, soybean planting is nearly finished and weather is favorable. In China, as of June 6, soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week [3]. Urea - Urea prices opened low and continued to decline today. Supply is stable, with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. It may rebound after wheat harvesting, but overall remains weak [4][5]. Futures Market Summary - As of June 11, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Industrial silicon rose over 2%, while palm oil and container shipping to Europe fell over 2% [7]. Core Views on Individual Commodities Copper - Copper prices fluctuated within a range. Supply is tight with reduced port inventory and potential smelter cuts. Demand is in a downward cycle, and prices are affected by trade and Fed policies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with a nearly 2% increase. Spot prices increased slightly. The rebound is due to macro - sentiment, not fundamentals. Be cautious when chasing up [11][12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded due to multiple factors. OPEC+ will increase production in July. Supply and demand factors are complex, and prices are expected to oscillate [13]. Asphalt - Asphalt supply increased, with a 3.6 - percentage - point increase in the start - up rate last week. Demand is mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14][15]. PP - PP downstream start - up rate decreased. Supply increased with new device production and restarted units. Inventory pressure is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic start - up rate increased, but downstream start - up rate decreased. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply increased, while demand is weak. Inventory is still high, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The 09 contract of soybean oil opened low and declined, with a closing decrease of 0.93%. US soybean growth data is mixed, and domestic inventory is increasing. Futures are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Supply pressure eased, but demand is weak. The fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose 0.67% today. Supply is still loose, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is decreasing slowly. It may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks [23][24]. Hot - rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices rose 0.78% today. Supply pressure increased, demand is in the off - season, and cost support weakened. It is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term [25].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The ongoing China - US trade negotiations are the focus of the market, and their results will significantly affect the US dollar's trend, investors' risk - aversion sentiment, and thus the gold price. The market is also waiting for the US CPI inflation data on Wednesday to guide the future interest - rate path. Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, trading around $3340 and staying above the key support level of the 20 - day moving average ($3303). Optimistic market sentiment boosted the US dollar and limited gold's upside potential, making it difficult to break through the psychological resistance level of $3350. The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver in the range of [32, 35] [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Key Information - The China - US trade talks in London are progressing well and are expected to last until Tuesday [2]. - California officials accused President Trump of intensifying the tense situation in Los Angeles by deploying the National Guard, while the White House thought the violent demonstrations justified increased efforts to deport illegal immigrants [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025 [2]. Price Logic - The ongoing China - US trade negotiations are the main focus. The US Commerce Secretary said the talks were "going well", and the economic advisor hinted at the lifting of the ban on rare - earth exports. Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday, with market optimism boosting the US dollar and limiting gold's upside [3]. - China's May exports to the US dropped by 35% compared to the same period last year, the largest decline since the pandemic, highlighting the changing trade environment [3]. - The market is closely watching whether the negotiation progress can ease tensions and promote global economic growth and is waiting for the US CPI inflation data on Wednesday to guide the future interest - rate path [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trading logic of the bean market still comes from weather themes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. However, the intraday performance of varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil is expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The optimistic expectation of Sino - US trade continues to ferment, and the US soybean shows weather - market fluctuations. The domestic soybean market is continuously boosted by the US soybean futures price. As China's purchases return to the US market, the US soybean futures price is boosted. The short - term trading logic of the bean market comes from weather themes, and the structure between contracts has subtle changes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. Intraday, it follows the short - term fluctuations of the US soybean futures price and mainly runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery start - up rhythm, and stocking demand [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Yesterday's Malaysian palm report showed that Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for 3 consecutive months. Although the increase was less than market expectations, it still put pressure on the palm oil market. Currently, the game between Malaysian palm oil production increase and strong exports continues. Later, attention still needs to be paid to the suppression of the Malaysian palm oil futures price by inventory pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force, and its short - term trend follows the international oil market and runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6][7]. Soybean Oil - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6] - **Core Logic**: Influencing factors include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].