长江期货粕类油脂周报 目 录 01 豆粕：短期利多匮乏，价格窄幅震荡 2025-10-20 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：基本面多空交织，期价短期震 荡运行 豆粕：短期利多匮乏，价格窄幅震荡 ◆ 周度行情回顾：截止10月18日，华东现货报价2870元/吨，周度下跌60元/吨；M2601合约收盘至2868元/吨，周度下跌54元/吨；基差 报价01+0元/吨，基差价格上涨20元/吨。周度美豆围绕1000美分/蒲附近波动，受中美贸易改善预期刺激价格反弹；国内豆粕前期走势 偏弱，M2601合约一度下跌至2850元/吨附近，但成本支撑下现货价格下跌有限，基差走强，油厂、贸易商挺价情绪明显。 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500 2022-10-09 2022-11-15 2022-12-22 2023-02-03 2023-03-14 2023-04-21 2023-05-31 2023-07-10 2023-08-16 2023-09- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump's administration signaled a relaxation of its attitude towards China, stabilizing the financial market and causing oil prices to stabilize and rebound. However, the overall trend remains bearish, with Brent crude briefly falling below the $60 mark, exerting significant psychological pressure on the market. Currently, there is a lack of geopolitical impetus, and oil prices are oscillating at a low level. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump said the proposed 100% tariff on Chinese goods was unsustainable, and blamed China for the latest deadlock in trade negotiations. China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon. The Putin - Trump summit may be held in two weeks or later. The situation is neutral. - **Basis**: On October 17, the spot price of Oman crude was $62.19 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $62.11 per barrel, with a basis of 34.77 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. - **Inventory**: For the week ending October 10 in the US, API crude inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels (expected increase: 233,000 barrels), and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels (expected increase: 288,000 barrels). Cushing region inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. As of October 17, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels. This is a bearish signal. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is a bearish signal. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased. As of October 14, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased. This is a bearish signal [3] 2. Recent News - The US Treasury Secretary, Beisente, plans to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of US tariffs on China. He also called on the IMF and the World Bank to take a tougher stance on China. - The Israeli military launched attacks on Hamas targets in southern Gaza in response to what it called Hamas' violation of the cease - fire agreement. - Trump urged Ukrainian President Zelensky to accept Russia's conditions to end the conflict and warned that if Ukraine refused, Russia would "destroy" the country [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The threat of Trump's tariffs has eased, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict poses a threat to refineries and oil fields. - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of the US government shutting down, and OPEC+ is considering further production increases. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a long - term risk of increased supply. - **Risk Points**: The unity within OPEC+ may be disrupted, leading to increased production, and the war risk may escalate [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude decreased from $61.91 to $61.06, a decline of 1.37%. WTI crude decreased from $58.27 to $56.99, a decline of 2.20%. SC crude remained unchanged at $443.2. Oman crude increased from $62.38 to $63.00, an increase of 0.99%. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $63.13 to $62.08, a decline of 1.66%. WTI decreased from $58.27 to $57.46, a decline of 1.39%. Oman crude in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $63.16 to $63.51, an increase of 0.55%. Shengli crude decreased from $59.48 to $59.43, a decline of 0.08%. Dubai crude increased from $62.75 to $62.85, an increase of 0.16%. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels for the week ending October 10. EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels for the same week [7][9][10][14] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 14, the net long position was 109,606, a decrease of 37,794 [17][19]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年10月20日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：贸易乐观预期回归，金价上破千位后大幅回落；美国三大股指全线收 涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨4个基 点报4.01%；美元指数涨0.20%报98.56，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1269； COMEX黄金期货跌0.85%报4267.90美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注二十届四中全会、中国三季度GDP和9月系列经济数据、9月LPR、 日央行委员讲话。中美贸易乐观预期回归，美元指数回升，金价回落。另外美国地 区性银行信贷风险外溢，引发市场对金融系统稳定性的担忧，金价或受此影响。沪 金溢价小幅扩大至-1.5元/克，国内情绪继续升温。贸易担忧降温，金价向上趋势不 变，短期将震荡。 CONTENTS 目 录 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - hold off [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - cautiously hold long positions on dips, avoid chasing highs; Aluminum - wait for a pullback to go long; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - buy on dips; Silver - range trading [1][10][17] - Energy Chemicals: PVC - oscillate weakly; Caustic soda - oscillate; Soda ash - short on 01 contract; Styrene - oscillate weakly; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate; Polyolefins - wide - range oscillation [1][22][32] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate; PTA - oscillate weakly; Apples - oscillate strongly; Jujubes - oscillate strongly [1][34][36] - Agricultural and Livestock: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - range oscillation; Oils - oscillate strongly [1][38][44] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment strategies for various futures products based on market analysis, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand dynamics, and international trade situations. It also emphasizes the need to pay attention to key events and data such as policy changes, trade negotiations, and inventory levels [5][7][23] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index futures: On October 16, A - shares fluctuated, with most stocks falling. Trading volume shrank. Before Sino - US negotiations, the index may continue to oscillate. Medium to long - term, it is bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Futures are divided. The trading theme may revolve around Sino - US relations. It is recommended to hold off for now [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal and rebar: Coking coal prices are volatile due to rain and weak demand. Rebar prices may be weak first and then strong in October, with a focus on the 3000 level for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: Some companies raised prices slightly, but shipments were restricted. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to hold off and focus on production line changes in Shahe [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Global trade tensions and supply disruptions have affected copper prices. Fundamentals are solid, and prices are expected to remain high - level oscillating. It is advisable to hold long positions on dips [10] - Aluminum: Ore prices declined, and production capacity increased slightly. Demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long after a pullback [12] - Nickel: Indonesia's new policy may affect supply. Supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold off or short on rallies [17] - Tin: Supply is tight, and demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18][19] - Gold and silver: Due to factors such as delayed non - farm data and expected interest rate cuts, prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full pullback [19][20] Energy Chemicals - PVC: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract facing pressure at 4800 [23] - Caustic soda: Short - term oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [24] - Soda ash: Supply is in excess, and prices may decline. Short the 01 contract [32][33] - Styrene: High inventory, weak demand, and expected weak oscillation. Focus on the 6900 resistance level [26] - Rubber: Supply is expected to increase, but raw material prices have a limited downside. It is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the 15000 support level [27][28] - Urea: Supply has increased, and demand is scattered. It is expected to oscillate [29] - Methanol: Supply has recovered, and demand from the main downstream is strong. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate [31] - Polyolefins: Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the L2601 contract focusing on 6900 support and the PP2601 contract on 6600 support [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are both increasing, but there is uncertainty between China and the US. It is expected to oscillate with a bearish outlook [34][35] - PTA: Oil prices are weak, and supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the 4350 - 4600 range [35] - Apples: High - quality apples are in high demand, and prices are polarized. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - Jujubes: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. Pay attention to the progress of orchard orders [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Supply is high in the short - term, and long - term supply remains under pressure. Short on rallies for 01, 03, 05 contracts; be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts [38][40] - Eggs: Short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Partially take profit on short positions for the 11 contract; short on rallies for 12, 01 contracts [41][42] - Corn: New crops are coming on the market, and the market is expected to be bearish in the short - term. Look for shorting opportunities on rebounds for the 11 contract [43][44] - Soybean meal: Affected by harvest pressure and slow exports, it is expected to oscillate at low levels [44][45] - Oils: Short - term correction is limited. Look for long - entry opportunities after the correction for 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price fluctuations, with specific increases in cold-rolled prices in Wuxi and Foshan, indicating a mixed sentiment among traders [1][3] - Nickel ore prices remain strong, particularly from the Philippines, while domestic nickel iron prices are under pressure due to increasing losses in domestic and Indonesian steel mills [3] - Overall, the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase, but demand remains weak, leading to inventory pressures [2][3] Pricing and Market Trends - As of October 16, Wuxi Hongwang's 304 cold-rolled price is 13,000 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton day-on-day, while Foshan Hongwang's price is stable at 12,900 CNY/ton [1] - The base price has increased by 45 CNY/ton to 555 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel ore from the Philippines is auctioned at FOB 43.5, with domestic nickel iron prices stabilizing around 945-950 CNY/nickel [1][3] Supply and Production - In September, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.4513 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 135,700 tons, or 4.09% [1] - October's production is projected at 3.488 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.06% [1] - The 300 series production in October is expected to be 1.8217 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 13, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 504,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 32,700 tons [2] - Stainless steel futures inventory decreased by 2,339 tons to 85,166 tons [2] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The stainless steel market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, with traders showing limited willingness to adjust prices despite lower spot prices compared to the latest agent prices [3] - Macro risks are increasing, with uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - The demand from traditional downstream sectors remains weak, and new emerging sectors are also showing a decline in growth expectations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading strategies for each [1]. - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a short - term weak consolidation trend, with limited short - term fluctuations due to the support of Sino - US trade tariffs [1][4]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal and is short - term bearish [1][6]. - Palm oil is expected to have a short - term high - level oscillating market, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [1][8]. - Soybean oil is expected to have a short - term oscillating market, and its upward movement depends on the performance of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1]. - Cotton is expected to have a weak oscillating market in the ICE market, and short - term rebound selling is recommended [1][12]. - Jujube is expected to face pressure after the new fruit is launched, and short - term large fluctuations may occur due to weather speculation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][14]. - Live pigs are expected to have a large - scale bottom - seeking oscillating market. Short - selling on rallies for near - month contracts and holding mid - term reverse spreads are recommended [1][17]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2917 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.52% from the previous day [2]. - Spot price: The national average price was 3018.86 yuan/ton, down 1.71 yuan or - 0.06% from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 70.70 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 765.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 45.85 million tons [3]. - Market situation: The harvest and listing of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and the slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall lead to a lack of bullish drivers. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide short - term support [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2357 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [5]. - Spot price: The national average price was 2524.21 yuan/ton, up 9.47 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [5]. - Inventory: As of October 10, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 million tons [6]. - Market situation: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a situation where long and short factors are intertwined. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new drivers [1][6]. Palm Oil - Futures price: The main contract closed at 9322 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous day [7]. - Spot price: The national average price was 9310 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.64% from the previous day [7]. - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 million tons [8]. - Market situation: The price competition of US soybean oil and the decent export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first ten days of this month lead to a situation where long and short factors are intertwined. It is expected to have a high - level oscillating market [1][8]. Cotton - Futures price: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13270 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [9]. - Spot price: The CCIndex (3218B) was 14674 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan or - 0.55% from the previous day [9]. - Inventory: The domestic cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. - Market situation: The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the support from India's MSP import tariff, and the pressure from un - priced buy orders and weak demand lead to a weak oscillating market [1][12]. Jujube - Futures price: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 11105 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.05% from the previous day [13]. - Spot price: The retail cash price remained stable [13]. - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, higher than the same period last year [14]. - Market situation: The expected production combined with the carry - over inventory will bring pressure after the new fruit is launched. Short - term large fluctuations may occur due to weather speculation [1][14]. Live Pigs - Futures price: The main contract Ih2511 closed at 11400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.44% from the previous day [15]. - Spot price: The national average price of live pigs was 11260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous day [15]. - Inventory: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory was 3839.01 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 56.61 million heads; the national inventory of fertile sows was 4038 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 4 million heads [15]. - Market situation: After the continuous decline of live pigs, the resistance of the breeding side has increased. However, the supply pressure in the future market is still strong, and the reduction of fertile sows benefits the far - month contracts [1][17].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 200 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.16% despite an early recovery attempt [3] - Market volatility was influenced by comments from former President Trump, who criticized those not purchasing U.S. soybeans and threatened to ban edible oil imports, causing a late-session drop in stock prices [3] Trade Relations Impact - Trump's previous statements about imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods led to a significant market drop, erasing $2 trillion in market value and causing the Dow to plunge over 800 points [3] - The "fear index" VIX spiked to 22, the highest in four months, reflecting market anxiety over trade tensions [3] Earnings Reports - The earnings season has begun positively for some major companies, with JPMorgan reporting a 16% increase in investment banking fees and a 25% rise in market revenue, indicating overall economic stability despite trade uncertainties [4] - Goldman Sachs saw a 37% year-over-year increase in net profit and a 20% rise in revenue, suggesting a strong performance in investment banking [4] - Johnson & Johnson raised its full-year sales forecast, providing some reassurance to the fluctuating market [4] Sector Performance - Rare earth stocks experienced a rally, while Tesla's stock declined due to an investigation into nearly 2.9 million autonomous vehicles [4] - Oracle plans to install 50,000 AMD AI chips next year, which is viewed as a positive development for the company [4] - PayPal was downgraded to "sell" by Goldman Sachs, while Domino's Pizza exceeded revenue expectations, highlighting mixed performance among individual stocks [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal lacks bullish drivers due to US soybean harvest, Sino - US negotiation voices, and improved rainfall in Brazil; rapeseed meal has mixed factors and follows the trend of soybean meal [1]. - **Short - term volatile**: Palm oil and soybean oil. Palm oil has potential future demand increase but is pressured by inventory accumulation; soybean oil follows the palm oil market [1]. - **High - level volatile**: Rapeseed oil, with low mill operation rate, consumption season, and speculation on biodiesel in the palm oil market [1]. - **Cautiously bearish**: Cotton and jujube. Cotton has supply pressure and weak demand; jujube has post - harvest pressure and potential weather - related price fluctuations [1]. - **Wide - range volatile**: Live pigs, with strong short - term supply pressure and uncertain demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price dropped to 2902 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 3020.57 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons [2][3]. - **Market Situation**: US old - crop soybean inventory was lower than expected, and Brazilian soybean planting rate was 8.2% as of Oct 4, 2025. It is in weak consolidation due to lack of bullish drivers [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price dropped to 2348 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 2514.74 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons [5][6]. - **Market Situation**: International market has expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. Domestic market is in de - stocking but in seasonal demand off - season, and it follows the soybean meal trend [6]. Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price was 9330 yuan/ton, national average price was 9370 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons [7][9]. - **Market Situation**: Indonesia's bio - diesel policy is positive for future demand, but Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation in September pressured prices, and it is in high - level volatility [9]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14755 yuan/ton. Commercial inventory increased to 115.54 million tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, supply pressure is increasing as new cotton harvests in major countries. Domestically, new cotton harvest is advancing, prices are weak, and demand is sluggish [11][12][13]. Jujube - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, some spot prices remained stable. 36 sample enterprises' inventory was 9167 tons [14][15]. - **Market Situation**: New - season production is expected to decrease, but there is still pressure considering inventory. There may be price fluctuations before November [15]. Live Pigs - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts increased, national average spot price was 11270 yuan/ton. National sample enterprises' inventory increased to 3839.01 million tons [16]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term supply pressure is strong as October planned出栏量 increases. Long - term, the number of breeding sows is decreasing. Demand is uncertain after the holiday [17].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, acknowledging signs of tightening in the money market [1][5] - Powell noted that inflation and employment outlooks have not changed significantly since the September FOMC meeting, but there are increasing signs of weakness in the labor market [1][5] - There is an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month despite the government shutdown affecting the Fed's grasp on economic conditions [1][5] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Gold and silver are experiencing increased volatility, with gold prices rising again due to Powell's hints at a pause in rate hikes and ongoing concerns over trade tensions [2][19] - Central banks are continuously increasing their gold reserves, reflecting growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising global tensions and financial system distrust [2][19] - Copper prices rose by 0.57% due to tight supply conditions, while the market sentiment is stabilizing post US-China trade tensions [2][20] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices fell by 1.73% amid geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza [3][13] - OPEC's October report predicts a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year, driven by strong economic activity [3][13] Group 4: Domestic Economic Measures - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of effective economic measures to ensure a strong start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing market vitality [6] - The government aims to implement counter-cyclical adjustments and optimize consumption policies to stimulate economic growth [6] Group 5: Trade and Export Performance - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) has set new records in exhibition area and participating enterprises, indicating robust foreign trade performance [7] - China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 6% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth [7]

Market Overview - On October 14, U.S. stock indices opened sharply lower due to trade disputes but later recovered, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 202.88 points, a 0.44% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 172.91 points, down 0.76% [1] - The Dow initially dropped nearly 600 points before reversing course, with the Nasdaq's decline narrowing to under 0.5% and the S&P 500 also rebounding [1] Sector Performance - AI technology stocks led the decline, with Nvidia dropping over 3%, and Tesla and Oracle falling by 1.79% and 2.22%, respectively [4] - The financial sector showed resilience, indicating a healthy consumer backdrop despite the overall market volatility [6] Trade Relations Impact - Recent tensions in U.S.-China trade relations have influenced market sentiment, with Trump's previous threats of imposing additional tariffs causing significant market drops [6] - However, Trump's recent comments suggested a more optimistic outlook, stating, "Don't worry about China, everything will be fine!" [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated expectations for two more rate cuts by the end of the year, following a recent reduction in the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [9] - The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, with market expectations reflecting a potential 25 basis point cut at both upcoming meetings [9]