| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，据传阿根廷第二船豆粕可能重新进入中国市场， | | 豆粕 | | 利空市场情绪。但巴西未来十五天展望再度表现不足，豆粕低位小幅反弹。此外， | | ★ | 短线偏空整理 | 中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑作用，2800 附近短线存在支撑。但由于缺乏 | | | | 强利多驱动，豆粕暂维持偏弱整理对待，关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | | 短期震荡 | 榈油暂以高位震荡行情对待，仍可关注逢低企稳短多机会，但上行空间预计有限。 | | ★ | | | | | | 美国政府停摆导致美国农业部相关报告停更。美豆收获上市以及原油下跌拖累美 ...

Market Performance - The market saw a rise on October 22, 2025, with a trading volume of 1.89 trillion, an increase of approximately 140 billion from the previous trading day[1] - All sectors except coal experienced gains, with telecommunications, electronics, construction, and real estate leading the increases[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, while the ChiNext Index increased by over 3% on October 21, 2025[3] Capital Flow - On October 21, 2025, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 39.835 billion, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 28.951 billion[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, and consumer electronics, while precious metals, joint-stock banks, and non-brewed liquor saw the largest outflows[4] Industry Insights - The AI IaaS market in China grew by 122.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a market size of 19.87 billion[8] - The GenAI IaaS market experienced a significant growth of 219.3%, with a market size of 16.68 billion, while the Other AI IaaS market contracted by 14.1% to 3.19 billion[8] ETF Market Dynamics - The total trading volume of ETFs reached 562.914 billion as of October 21, 2025, with stock ETFs accounting for 140.2 billion and bond ETFs for 251.319 billion[12][13] - Recent ETF share splits have reduced investment thresholds, reflecting a shift towards refined operations in the public fund industry as the ETF market surpasses 5.63 trillion[14]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent actions regarding tariffs on China are more symbolic than practical, as he aims to leverage the situation ahead of the upcoming US-China meeting [3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Actions - Trump has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting next month, which coincides with the timing of the US-China meeting [1][5]. - The new tariffs are seen as a tool to pressure China, but their actual impact may be limited if a consensus is reached during the meeting [5][10]. Group 2: Demands from China - Trump has outlined three unreasonable demands for China: importing US soybeans, lifting restrictions on rare earth exports, and banning fentanyl [7][9]. - The demands are viewed as inconsistent with China's interests, especially given the ongoing trade tensions [7][9]. Group 3: Negotiation Dynamics - Trump's approach to negotiations is characterized by a lack of sincerity, as he attempts to use new tariffs as bargaining chips without addressing China's concerns [9][10]. - The Chinese government has emphasized the need for negotiations to be based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit, indicating that any lack of these principles would undermine the negotiation process [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Agricultural Products - **Beans and Oilseeds**: Short - term bearish consolidation for soybean meal and rapeseed meal; short - term oscillation for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; high - level oscillation for rapeseed oil [1] - **Cotton**: Uptrend under pressure in the short term, with ICE market expected to maintain range - bound oscillation [1] - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies during the new - season jujube harvest [1] - **Pork**: Sell on rallies for live pigs, with supply pressure remaining high in Q4 [1] 2.2 Market Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: Weakly sorted due to lack of strong bullish drivers, with support around 2800 yuan/ton [1][4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Follows the trend of soybean meal, with limited upside due to seasonal demand decline [1][6] - **Palm Oil**: High - level oscillation due to mixed long and short factors, with limited upside potential [1][8] - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term oscillation, with supply sufficient and dependent on palm oil for upward momentum [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: High - level oscillation due to low processing rates, hoarding, and seasonal demand [1] - **Cotton**: New - cotton supply pressure and weak downstream demand limit upside, with ICE market range - bound [1][12] - **Red Dates**: New - season supply pressure and potential short - term speculation risk, sell on rallies [1][15] - **Pork**: Supply pressure remains high in Q4, with short - term rebound for selling opportunities [1][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 17, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased by 208,000 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory increased by 2,940 tons week - on - week; soybean meal inventory decreased by 102,900 tons week - on - week [3] - **Price and Spread**: Futures price increased by 0.94% to 2,895 yuan/ton; spot price increased slightly; various spreads showed different changes [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is sufficient, but oil mills' profit is in deficit, and downstream replenishment is weak. Brazilian weather and Sino - US trade tariffs affect the market [4] 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 17, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory decreased by 12,000 tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 3,700 tons week - on - week [6] - **Price and Spread**: Futures price increased by 1.91% to 2,350 yuan/ton; spot price increased slightly; various spreads changed [5] - **Supply and Demand**: International supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is in the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations affect the market [6] 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of October 17, 2025, national key area commercial inventory increased by 28,100 tons week - on - week [8] - **Price and Spread**: Futures price increased by 0.11% to 9,318 yuan/ton; spot price increased; various spreads changed significantly [7] - **Supply and Demand**: US soybean oil competition and strong early - October Malaysian export data create mixed factors [8] 3.4 Cotton - **Market Data**: US new - cotton harvest is 40% - 50% complete; Brazilian new - cotton processing exceeds 50%; domestic new - cotton picking is 58.8% complete [10][11] - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices of different contracts increased; basis and spreads changed [9] - **Supply and Demand**: Global new - cotton supply increases, downstream demand is seasonally weak, and Sino - US trade affects the market [12] 3.5 Red Dates - **Market Data**: 36 sample enterprises' inventory decreased by 158 tons week - on - week [13] - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices decreased slightly; spot prices were stable; various spreads changed [13] - **Supply and Demand**: New - season production is expected to decrease, but supply pressure remains after considering inventory. Demand is improving [15] 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Data**: National sample enterprises' pig inventory increased by 566,100 month - on - month; slaughter volume decreased by 479,600 month - on - month [16] - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices increased; spot prices were stable; various spreads changed [16] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply pressure remains high in Q4 due to second - fattening and slow early - October slaughter. Demand is weak after the holidays [17]

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: October 21, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the expected trend for both being weakly volatile today. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino-US macro risks contribute to this outlook, while the operating conditions of agricultural film are stable, and industrial inventories are moderately high [4][6] LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices have continued to decline. On the supply - demand side, the operation of agricultural film is stable with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for other films is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6920 (+10) [4] Key Factors - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 46, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish. The PE comprehensive inventory is 58.0 million tons (+3.7), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [5] PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, and Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has increased but is still weak year - on - year. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0) [6] Key Factors - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 1, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.0%, which is neutral. The PP comprehensive inventory is 67.9 million tons (-0.3), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [7] Market Data LLDPE - Spot delivery product price: 6920, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6874, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 12685, 0 change. PE comprehensive factory inventory: 58.0, 0 change. PE social inventory: 546, 0 change [8] PP - Spot delivery product price: 6550, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6551, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 14313, 0 change. PP comprehensive factory inventory: 67.9, 0 change. PP social inventory: 349, 0 change [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with a significant increase in 2020 and 2025E. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been steadily increasing, with relatively large growth rates in 2020, 2023, and 2024. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has generally been positive [15]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term surge in precious metal prices may have ended due to the possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but the uptrend may continue until 2026 due to factors like Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while being aware of short - term adjustment risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions through this week's economic and trade consultations in Malaysia has alleviated market concerns, leading to significant price drops in gold and silver on Friday. The short - term surge may be over, and investors should watch for short - term adjustment risks. However, factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals, and the uptrend may last until 2026. This week, key events to monitor include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold oscillated between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressure. Easing international trade conditions and a strong global stock market weakened safe - haven demand. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's rate - cut process, and under the Trump administration's pressure, the rate - cut pace may be faster. The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to mid - October, London gold started a new uptrend, soaring to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record of $54.47 per ounce. The bullish factors will continue to work, but short - term price surges bring adjustment risks, and bullish factors may weaken periodically. Investors are advised to be bullish overall, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11] 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump pressured the Ukrainian president to give up territory and proposed an agreement based on the current front line, which was accepted by Zelensky [17]. - Trump continued to signal trade - tension easing, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from so - called reciprocal tariffs and willing to exclude more products when trade agreements are reached [17]. - S&P downgraded France's long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating from "AA -" to "A+", the second downgrade in a year and a half. Fitch had downgraded France's rating in September, and Moody's will announce its latest rating decision on the 24th [17]. - The US and South Korea have made substantial progress in most trade negotiation issues, and the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before the APEC meeting is high [18].

中新网10月20日电 海关总署数据显示，今年9月，中国未从美国进口大豆。这是中国对美国大豆月进口 量自2018年11月以来首次降至零。 在关税背景下，今年美国豆农的大豆丰收季没有了"中国订单"。而与此同时，作为世界上最大的大豆进 口国，中国正加大对南美国家大豆的采购以取代美豆。 据路透社等报道，今年1—9月，中国共从巴西进口6370万吨大豆，同比增长2.4%，从阿根廷进口290万 吨大豆，同比增长31.8%。中国对南美国家大豆进口量创下新高。 路透社还提到，如果美国和中国接下来的贸易谈判没有突破，随着中国继续从南美采购大豆，美国农民 可能面临数十亿美元的损失。 彭博社报道则提到，因失去中国买家，美国农民的不满情绪正在加剧，他们面临着大豆价格下跌的压 力，许多人急切期待美国政府援助。不过，因为政府"停摆"，这些援助目前处于搁置状态。（记者宫宏 宇） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals declined from high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 1.63% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing down 3.99%. [1] - In the short - term, regarding safe - haven aspects, there may be a meeting between China and the US, easing trade - war risks. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, employment is weakening, and inflation is moderate. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts is starting to materialize. [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump said that imposing a 100% tariff on China is unsustainable. The US Treasury Secretary expects China and the US to meet in Malaysia soon to prevent tariff escalation. [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the next few months. Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has hardly changed recently, but signs of cooling consumption are emerging. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in September, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. Currently, the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of around 90%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate weakly in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex gold's main - contract closing price is $4224.90 per ounce, up 1.57% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week; London gold is $4204.60 per ounce, up 1.90% from the previous day and 4.07% from the previous week. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of Shanghai gold's main contract is 970.32 yuan per gram, down 2.95% from the previous day and up 4.61% from the previous week; the closing price of gold T + D is 973.70 yuan per gram, down 2.23% from the previous day and up 5.10% from the previous week. [2] - **Basis, spreads, and ratios**: The difference between Shanghai gold's main contract and London gold is 5.71 yuan per gram, down 87% from the previous day and down 215% from the previous week; the gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) is 77.72, down 0.22% from the previous day and down 2.35% from the previous week. [2] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots; Shanghai gold's main - contract positions are 207,916 lots, down 6.43% from the previous day and down 13.37% from the previous week; gold T + D positions are 258,232 lots, up 1.27% from the previous day and up 12.76% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory is 8,598 tons; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.08% from the previous week. [2] 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits. [5] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex silver's main - contract closing price is $50.63 per ounce, down 5.25% from the previous day and up 6.55% from the previous week; London silver is $54.10 per ounce, up 2.04% from the previous day and up 6.58% from the previous week. [5] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of Shanghai silver's main contract is 11,742 yuan per kilogram, down 4.14% from the previous day and up 1.83% from the previous week; the closing price of silver T + D is 11,779 yuan per kilogram, down 3.67% from the previous day and up 2.85% from the previous week. [5] - **Basis and spreads**: The difference between Shanghai silver's main contract and London silver is - 653.17 yuan per gram, down 744.93% from the previous day and up 479.09% from the previous week; the basis of Shanghai silver's main contract is 37 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots; Shanghai silver's main - contract positions are 6,489,945 lots, down 8.17% from the previous day and down 12.70% from the previous week; silver T + D positions are 3,830,738 lots, up 5.73% from the previous day and up 20.97% from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 42,538 tons, down 0.58% from the previous day and down 1.32% from the previous week. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, up 0.00% from the previous number. [7] - **Economic data**: The year - on - year growth rate of M2 is 4.77%, the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury is 2.32%, the US dollar index is 98.55, the yield spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasuries is 0.54, and the yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries is - 0.02. [7][10] - **Inflation data**: The year - on - year CPI is 2.90%, the core CPI year - on - year is 3.10%, and the PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%. [10] - **Other data**: The NAHB housing - market index is 37.00, up 15.63% from the previous number; new - home sales are 660,000 units, up 15.15% from the previous number; the retail - sales year - on - year growth rate is 3.76%. [10] - **Central - bank gold reserves**: China's central - bank gold reserve is 2,303.52 tons, up 0.14% from the previous number; the US's is 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's is 36,268.07 tons, unchanged. [11] - **Other indicators**: The geopolitical - risk index is 259.24, the VIX index is 20.40, the CRB commodity index is 293.35, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1263. [11] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate range at different meetings from October 2025 to September 2027 are presented in a probability table, showing the changing probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at each meeting. [12]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with a surge of $360 followed by a sharp decline of $200, ultimately stabilizing above $4200, indicating a highly dynamic trading environment [1][4][11]. Weekly Performance - Last week, gold prices soared, demonstrating a parabolic rise, and after a high jump, it managed to rebound above $4200 [1][4]. - Today's trading opened high with a rebound of $50, suggesting continued upward momentum [5]. - The market is projected to test the resistance level at $4280, with potential for further gains towards $4380 [6][7]. Market Dynamics - Following a high-level drop, there is a possibility of further adjustments, with support levels being monitored at $4200 and $4127 [9][11]. - The gold market has seen a remarkable increase of over $900 in the last two months, with an annual increase nearing $1800, indicating a strong bullish trend despite recent corrections [11]. Influencing Factors - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, including the imposition of tariffs, have significantly impacted market sentiment, contributing to the rise in gold prices [13]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, affecting economic data releases and potentially leading to a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which could further support gold prices [14]. - Key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are expected to influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [14]. Investment Strategy - Emphasis is placed on the importance of timing in entering and exiting positions in the gold market, with a focus on maintaining low risk while maximizing profit opportunities [14]. - The expertise of seasoned investment teams is highlighted as a critical factor for achieving high accuracy in trading decisions [14].

2025年10月20日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.378 | 102.290 | 105.780 | 105.695 | 108.295 | 107.980 | 115.87 | 115.57 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.362 | 102.274 | 105.705 | 105.600 | 108.165 | 107.870 | 114.96 | 114.68 | | | 涨跌 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.075 | 0.095 | 0.130 ...