关于报告的所有内容，请于公众『市场分析报告』阅读原文 《十大外资对2026年A股的建议》 兴业证券分析师梳理整合了包括摩根大通、高盛、瑞银等在内的十家国际主流机构对2026年A股的年度展望，旨在呈现外资视角下对中国资产的结构性共识 与配置逻辑，很有参考价值。 一、摩根大通 即将进入2026年，A股市场的变化趋势已逐渐清晰。以摩根大通为代表的外资机构认为，上市公司能否实现实实在在的"盈利"，将成为推动中国资产上涨的 核心动力。市场的关注点正从前期估值的普遍修复，转向企业业绩的兑现能力。 该机构预测，2026年沪深300指数有望达到5200点，这意味着相较于2025年12月的收盘价，存在约13%的上涨空间。对应的市场平均估值约为15.9倍市盈 率，而上市公司整体的每股收益（EPS）预计将增长15%。这一轮盈利复苏具有广泛基础，调查显示，超过三分之一的细分行业已经进入收入增长区间，盈 利前景得到上调的公司数量比例创下2020年以来的新高。 摩根大通将投资机会归纳为四条清晰的主线：抑制过度竞争（反内卷）、人工智能（AI）、全球化拓展（出海）以及国内需求的局部复苏。 抑制过度竞争（反内卷）：政策正直接对"低价倾销"等行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a "spring market" driven by earnings growth in 2026, supported by policies aimed at reducing competition, advancements in AI infrastructure, and a recovering consumer market [1][2]. Market Short-term Style Shift - Morgan Stanley's China stock strategy team has shifted its outlook to positive for MSCI China and CSI 300 indices since January 9, 2023, predicting that the upward trend may continue until 2026 [2]. - A style shift from growth and momentum sectors to value, defensive, and high-dividend sectors is recommended, likely lasting until the end of this year and early next year [2]. - The MSCI China, CSI 300, and MSCI Hong Kong indices are projected to reach 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively by 2026, representing potential increases of approximately 22%, 13.5%, and 17.8% [2]. Earnings Growth as Market Driver - Stable growth in earnings per share (EPS) is identified as the core driver for sustained market growth [3]. - The proportion of companies in the MSCI China index with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased since May [3]. - The current net profit margin of Chinese listed companies (excluding the financial sector) is relatively low in the Asia-Pacific region, but the return on equity (ROE) remains strong [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign long-term funds have increased their holdings in the Chinese stock market, with a 100 basis point rise in the holdings of global active funds by the end of October [4]. - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: "anti-involution," AI, overseas expansion, and consumption, with real estate as a potential theme [4][5]. Sector-Specific Insights - The "anti-involution" theme focuses on sectors with strong growth prospects, such as batteries and photovoltaics, as well as macro-sensitive sectors like steel and cement [5]. - Companies with overseas operations are expected to gain more attention from global investors due to their balanced business models [5]. - The essential consumer sector in MSCI China is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [5]. AI Sector Analysis - The assessment of whether the AI sector is in a bubble depends on valuation levels, with recent corrections observed in semiconductor hardware valuations [6]. - The focus is on energy storage companies within AI infrastructure, which are currently in a recovery phase [6]. - The technology sector's performance in the fourth quarter is crucial for sustaining high expectations, with long-term growth dependent on companies improving quality and profitability [6].

Core Insights - Tencent Smart Retail and Life Industry announced the upgrade of the "Qianyu Plan" to provide more support for partners, focusing on cooperation mechanisms, incentives, and resource support to help partners discover new growth opportunities [1][3] - The "2025 Qianyu Achievement Report" highlighted significant growth, with the total number of cooperative projects reaching over 150% of the previous year, and overall cooperation amount exceeding 150 million yuan [1][3] Group 1: Ecosystem Development - The partnership ecosystem has expanded, with cross-industry collaborations emerging in retail, tourism, hospitality, property, and real estate, enhancing the overall cohesion and combat effectiveness of the "warrior system" [3][5] - Notable collaborations include the CHATBI solution for management challenges, cloud hosting models for cost reduction in hospitality, and AI co-creation with Youzan for improved user operations [3][5] Group 2: 2026 Qianyu Plan Upgrades - The 2026 Qianyu Plan will focus on addressing partner pain points by enhancing cooperation mechanisms, incentives, and resource support to help partners navigate challenges and uncover new growth opportunities [5][6] - The plan will welcome partners from various industries to co-create solutions, emphasizing digital infrastructure, applications, and strategies to support clients' digital upgrades [5][6] Group 3: Market Resources and Opportunities - The Qianyu Plan will integrate marketing resources and provide diverse training, certification, and AI resources to address market challenges such as insufficient business opportunities and low market visibility [6][8] - The focus will be on AI, overseas expansion, and holistic operations to explore new growth directions, with an emphasis on making AI accessible across industries [6][8] Group 4: Future Directions - The Qianyu Plan aims to recruit and nurture excellent partners through selection, management, and Tencent ecosystem empowerment, fostering collaborative growth and exploring new digital growth paths [9]

| 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌 (%) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | (点) | 1日 | 5 目 | 1月 | | 上证指数 | 3870 | 1.19 | -2.56 | -0.77 | | | | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | I | | | 2 . . | A | 1 | | | | | 14/ | | 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 18 日 中国铁建 (01186) 深度: 报表优化, 分红提升, 估值修复 亮点一：2026 年行业投资维稳，总量有支撑。年初至今固定资产投资增速 放缓,基建、制造业、地产均呈现压力,展望 2026 年,随着地方政府化债 的有序推进，叠加中央"两重"项目实施，2026年投资有望维稳。 亮点二：公司新签订单边际改善，结构优化，在手订单充裕，保障长期稳 键增长。公司 2021-2024、2025Q1-3 累计新签合同额分别同比 +10.39%/+15.09%/+1.51%/-7.80%/+3.08%，2025 年前三季度新签订 单边际改善。 亮点三：资产负债表持续 ...

在认识中东城市的过程中，也是如此，在短视频的世界里，中东通常都是和"土豪"标签关联在一起，在 一些网红博主和房地产中介的塑造里，那边好像遍地是黄金，人人富得流油。但是，在迪拜老城区仍然 能看到密集的南亚劳工，街头的骑手，他们的收入并不高。 迪拜的商旅旺季 一位出海经验丰富的企业高管告诉我，不管是媒体的关注角度，还是社交媒体上的传播内容，你看到的 或许是大家希望你看到的，这些声音构成了传播议程设置的一环。 迪拜确实也是开放度高和擅长营销的城市。在走马观花的实地采访中，可以感受到的是，以阿联酋、沙 特为代表的中东国家，迎来了越来越多的中国企业、商务精英、游客等。 关联内容 21特写｜科技新贵为何扎堆去中东？ 通过短暂的采访调研，去了解一个城市和写企业出海趋势，都很容易盲人摸象。 林雪萍《大出海》书中写墨西哥市场环境时提到，那些流传广远的内容迎合了人们的想象。 当这些国家被当成一个简单标签组合的存在时，人们更容易传播符合自己想象的内容。在新的社交茧 房，持有相同观点的人相互验证。 近几年，中国人到沙特和阿联酋出差和做生意的人都变多了，我在迪拜接触到的两个包车司机，都是五 六十岁的东北人，不会英语，但做事很灵活，通过 ...

Core Insights - The automotive sector is transitioning from a purely domestic demand-driven model to a multifaceted approach that includes overseas expansion, premiumization, and smart technology integration, with a focus on AI as a key growth driver for 2026 [3][10]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Outlook - Domestic demand for passenger vehicles may face pressure, with a projected registration volume of 22.6 million units in 2026, down 3.4% year-on-year. Exports are expected to reach 6.8 million units, up 17.2% year-on-year, while wholesale volume is forecasted at 29.41 million units, a slight increase of 0.7% [6][32]. - Heavy-duty trucks are anticipated to see a domestic retail sales volume of 695,000 units in 2026, down 13.2% year-on-year, with exports of 365,000 units, up 10% [6][40]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to continue its recovery, with total sales projected at 23.44 million units in 2026, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [6]. Main Line 1: Overseas Expansion - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) exports. Excluding China, the U.S., and Japan, the potential for EV exports is expected to triple, with a forecast of 3.38 million units exported in 2026 [7]. - Domestic parts manufacturers are leveraging their technological and cost advantages to penetrate global supply chains, particularly benefiting from the growth of the European EV market [7]. - Heavy-duty truck exports are projected to reach 365,000 units in 2026, while bus exports are expected to grow by 15% [7]. Main Line 2: High-End Vehicles and Domestic Substitution - The high-end and luxury passenger vehicle markets are less affected by economic downturns, presenting opportunities for domestic substitution [8]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to benefit from technological advancements, with significant growth anticipated in areas such as magnesium alloys and smart driving components [8]. - The penetration rate of domestic parts in certain categories, such as seats and airbags, is expected to increase from approximately 10% to over 30% [8]. Main Line 3: Embracing AI - The production of humanoid robots is entering a new phase, with significant growth expected in 2026 as Tesla prepares for mass production [9]. - The liquid cooling sector is poised for explosive growth, with strong applicability in both automotive and server cooling systems [9]. - The smart driving market is entering a phase of affordability, with penetration rates expected to accelerate between 10% and 50% [9]. Investment Recommendations - The automotive sector is advised to focus on identifying turning points in domestic demand while leveraging opportunities in overseas markets, high-end vehicle segments, and AI-driven transformations [10].

Core Insights - The China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) serves as a multi-functional platform for regional economic development, showcasing opportunities for investment and international cooperation [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Development and Investment - The CIFTIS has been pivotal for the Xicheng District, acting as a "showcase window," "cooperation bridge," and "growth engine," with pre-scheduled investment amounts exceeding $16.5 billion, marking a 71.5% increase from the previous year [3]. - The district launched the "Central-Local Cooperation: Going Global Navigation Plan" during the fair, facilitating partnerships between Chinese enterprises and foreign companies, particularly in the Middle East [3]. Group 2: Support for Traditional Brands - Xicheng District is enhancing its commercial districts and supporting traditional brands through targeted upgrades and innovative actions, including the "Old Brand Renewal" initiative [4]. - The fair has allowed traditional brands like Quanjude to connect with younger consumers through innovative products, showcasing the blend of heritage and modern consumer preferences [7]. Group 3: Digital and Financial Technology - Cheche Technology aims to expand its digital insurance services internationally, leveraging the overseas sales networks of Chinese electric vehicle brands [5]. - LianDong YouShi, a fintech company, is focusing on providing localized solutions for developing countries, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [6]. Group 4: Innovation in Food and Beverage - Zhang Yiyuan is launching a new tea brand, "Yuan Lai Shi Cha," at the fair, emphasizing innovation while maintaining traditional values, particularly in jasmine tea [8]. - Huatiandish's participation in the fair has allowed it to test innovative business models and integrate technology into its offerings, enhancing customer engagement [9]. Group 5: Brand Image and Cultural Value - Caibai has utilized its five-year participation in the fair to enhance its brand image and cultural value, positioning itself as a platform for cross-border cooperation [10]. - The fair serves as a significant venue for Chinese brands to narrate their stories and promote Eastern aesthetics on a global stage [10].

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted to 4.4%, with a quarterly increase expected in Q1 to 6.5% and a slight decrease in H2 to 3.6% [1] - The fiscal deficit is projected to expand by 1 percentage point in 2026, with a total budget deficit of 4% and special government bonds amounting to approximately 4.8 trillion yuan [9] - Inflation is expected to remain low, with CPI projected to rise slightly to 0.4% and PPI potentially turning positive by the end of 2026 [11] Stock Market Projections - The target levels for major indices by the end of 2026 are set at 100 points for MSCI China, 5200 points for CSI 300, and 16000 points for MSCI Hong Kong, indicating potential increases of 20%, 13%, and 20% respectively [2] - The expected EPS growth for MSCI China is around 15% for 2026, with a significant contribution from the consumer discretionary sector [4][6] Key Investment Themes - The four main investment themes identified are anti-involution, AI, overseas expansion, and structural recovery in domestic demand [1][6] - The easing of price wars among major companies is anticipated to improve profit margins, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector [4] - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive performance for Chinese tech hardware suppliers, with significant capital expenditure growth projected for major cloud service providers [5] Industry Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance profit margins and return on equity (ROE) across various sectors, particularly in industries facing excessive competition [5] - The structural recovery in sectors such as healthcare, information technology, and communication services is showing signs of broadening, with over one-third of sub-sectors currently in a revenue expansion phase [3] - The automotive, consumer electronics, and AI-related hardware sectors are projected to see significant improvements in overseas revenue contributions [7] Policy Environment - The policy landscape is expected to support consumption and investment, with a focus on structural rebalancing between services and manufacturing [1][9] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately accommodative, with expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [9][15] - The government is likely to implement targeted measures to stimulate consumption, particularly in service and green sectors [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the stock market may continue to be influenced by overseas factors, but there is a high probability of earnings improvement for listed companies next year [1] - The policy environment is expected to remain accommodative, which will support market valuation increases [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for Chinese assets, particularly for AI technology companies with overseas capabilities and brand consumer companies [1]

Core Insights - In November, Chinese non-gaming companies continued to show strong overseas revenue growth, with ByteDance and YY leading the rankings. Meitu's revenue surged by over 21.4% due to seasonal features, returning to the top three [2][3]. Non-Gaming Companies Revenue - ByteDance and YY maintained their positions at the top of the revenue chart for non-gaming companies in November [2]. - Meitu's application "Meitu" launched a winter-themed feature, achieving record revenue growth, particularly in Asian markets like Thailand and Japan [2][3]. - Qicheng Technology's applications "TopTop" and "DramaBite" helped the company rise into the top five, maintaining previous month's revenue momentum [3]. - iQIYI's revenue increased by over 13.3% due to promotional activities during the Double Eleven shopping festival, moving up two ranks to eighth place [3]. - Youku's application "YOUKU" saw a revenue increase of over 20.2% driven by the success of the series "暗河传" in Thailand [3]. - Xiaoying Technology reversed its revenue decline with a growth of over 21.8%, aided by its video editing app "VivaVideo" and new AI applications [4]. - Other companies like Wanjing Technology, Baidu, and Xiaomi also saw improvements in their rankings and revenue [4]. Gaming Companies Revenue - The global gaming market remained strong, with Chinese gaming companies maintaining their revenue levels from the previous month [7]. - Tencent's overseas revenue grew significantly, driven by its FPS game "GODDESS OF VICTORY: NIKKE," which achieved record revenue due to new content [7][8]. - 4399's new game "英雄來搞鬼：房間保衛戰" performed well in the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets, contributing to its improved ranking [7]. - KuLo Games' "Wuthering Waves" saw a revenue increase of over 16.1%, helping the company rise in the rankings [8]. - Iceberg Network's new game "X-Clash: Survival Challenge" achieved an estimated revenue of over $3 million, with a month-on-month growth of over 162.9% [8]. - Other companies like Lilith, Mu Tong, and BeheFun also experienced notable revenue growth and ranking improvements [8].