Core Insights - The report by Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Pfister suggests that if the Bank of Canada decides to maintain interest rates tonight, the Canadian dollar may appreciate in the short term [1] - LSEG data indicates an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points again [1] - Pfister expresses skepticism about the market's certainty, noting that recent Canadian inflation has exceeded expectations, the labor market is volatile, and there is uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs [1] - He suggests that it may be more appropriate to consider a rate cut in December instead [1]

Market Performance - US stocks ended higher on October 28, supported by upbeat corporate earnings and improved investor sentiment amid easing trade tensions [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34%, or 161 points, to 47,706, hitting a new record close [1] - The broader S&P 500 gained 0.23%, or 15 points, to 6,890, also ending at a record high after surpassing 6,900 earlier in the session [2] - The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.80%, or 190 points, to 23,827, witnessing a record close as well, boosted by a 4.98% jump in Nvidia shares to $201.03 [3] Company Performance - Wall Street was boosted by a jump in shares of United Parcel Service (UPS) by 8% to $96.36, Wayfair by 23.22% to $106.52, and PayPal by 3.92% to $73 after these companies reported better-than-expected financial results [4]

·美联储本轮宽松周期降息幅度或低于预期 ·Vanguard Europe的Shaan Raithatha在一份报告中表示，预计欧洲央行将在2025年剩余时间和2026年保持 利率不变。然而，这位资深经济学家表示，风险倾向于进一步宽松。他表示，大多数欧洲央行政策制定 者重申，欧洲央行仍处于"良好状态"，通胀前景面临的风险是"双面的"。 ·美国银行预计，日本央行将在10月会议上维持其谨慎的政策立场，但将在明年1月宣布下一次加息，因 政策制定者将权衡居高不下的通胀与脆弱的内需复苏。该行表示，预计日本央行本周将维持利率不变， 同时采取鹰派措辞，以此表明其有信心认为潜在通胀仍高于目标水平。这将是一次"鹰派"的按兵不动， 为明年初可能的加息铺路。目前的基本情景预测是，央行在2026年1月将加息25个基点，理由是工资增 长和服务业通胀逐步改善。尽管若日本央行释放更强的紧缩信号，日元可能在年内后期再度走强，但美 银指出，短期动态——包括美日利差及峰会相关的政治气氛——均支持美元持续保持韧性。 ·安联：日本央行可能会避免留下无限期维持利率的印象 ·日元期权成交量触及月内低位投资者等待日本央行给出信号 ·西太平洋银行：澳洲联储的 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The Australian dollar (AUD) surged to a three-week high against the US dollar (USD) at 0.6600, driven by strong consumer price index (CPI) data, which reduced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1][2] - The third quarter CPI in Australia rose by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, compared to a 0.7% increase in the second quarter, and the year-on-year CPI climbed to 3.2%, up from 2.1%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The RBA's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that despite a surprising rise in unemployment, the labor market remains somewhat tight, leading investors to focus on upcoming inflation data for insights into future interest rate movements [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, the probability of a rate cut at the RBA's November meeting dropped significantly from 40% to 8%, and the December cut probability fell from 70% to 28%, with full pricing of a cut pushed to June next year [2] - The market is reacting to inflation risks, particularly in construction costs and service pressures, which have led to a reassessment of monetary policy expectations [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical analysis of the AUD/USD pair indicates a bullish shift if it breaks above the descending channel, with immediate resistance at the psychological level of 0.6600 [3] - A breakthrough at 0.6600 could lead the AUD/USD to explore the 12-month high of 0.6707 reached on September 17 [3] - Key support levels are identified at the 50-day moving average of 0.6546 and the 9-day moving average of 0.6545; a drop below these levels could reignite bearish sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists predict that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, aligning with market expectations. However, this decision may reveal increasing policy divergence within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) compared to the consensus seen in the September meeting [1]. Group 1 - In the September meeting, only one member, Fed Governor Milan, voted against the consensus, advocating for a more aggressive rate cut [1]. - The October meeting may witness "dual dissent," with Milan potentially opposing the 25 basis point cut again, while some regional Fed presidents may advocate for maintaining the current rates, indicating hawkish dissent [1]. - Barclays anticipates that hawkish members may support the rate cut, but would not be surprised if Kansas City Fed President Schmid or Richmond Fed President Musalem votes against the cut, favoring a hold on rates [1].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share of $1.19 for Q3 2025, down from $1.36 in the previous quarter and $1.32 in Q3 2024 [5][24] - Return on average assets was 1.11% and pre-provision return on average assets was 1.61% [6] - Net interest income increased by $5.5 million compared to the previous quarter, reaching $158 million, while net interest margin improved by two basis points to 4.23% [6][27] - Non-performing assets increased by $22 million, resulting in a ratio of 83 basis points compared to 71 basis points in the linked quarter [10][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth was annualized at 6%, amounting to $174 million, net of $22 million in guaranteed loans sold during the quarter [8][16] - Deposit growth was exceptional, with an increase of $240 million in the quarter, leading to a total deposit growth of $822 million year-over-year [9][19] - Specialty deposits grew by $189 million in the quarter and $681 million year-over-year, reflecting a 22% increase [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Growth was observed in the Southwest markets, particularly in Dallas and Las Vegas, contributing to high-quality loan growth [8][14] - The company experienced solid customer deposit growth across all regions year-over-year, with non-interest-bearing accounts representing over 32% of total deposits [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating new associates from recent branch acquisitions and enhancing its presence in strong markets [12] - The strategy emphasizes organic growth and maintaining a balanced deposit base while exploring potential M&A opportunities that align with its growth objectives [59][60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding client confidence due to recent economic developments, including interest rate cuts and clarity in trade policies [12][13] - The company anticipates continued loan production and onboarding of new clients, with expectations for a strong finish to 2025 [13][34] Other Important Information - The company increased its quarterly dividend by $0.01 to $0.32 per share for Q4 2025, reflecting confidence in its financial performance [10][34] - The provision for credit losses increased to $8.4 million, primarily due to net charge-offs and an increase in non-performing loans [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide clarity on the resolution timeline for the Southern California credits and the life insurance premium finance loan? - Management indicated that the resolution for the Southern California loans may take longer than anticipated due to a secondary bankruptcy filing, while the life insurance loan is expected to be resolved through litigation, with full principal coverage assured [40][41] Question: What is the company's exposure to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs)? - The company maintains a portfolio of approximately $260 to $270 million in balances across various private lending relationships, focusing on first mortgage secured loans [42][43] Question: What is the expense outlook for the fourth quarter and into 2026? - The company expects total expenses to increase by approximately 3.5% year-over-year, with additional costs related to the branch acquisition factored in [49][50] Question: How does the company view fee income growth moving forward? - Management anticipates fee income growth to be mid-single-digit, with expectations for a rebound in the fourth quarter, although it may not reach the highs of previous quarters [50][73] Question: What are the company's priorities regarding capital deployment? - The primary focus is on organic growth, with M&A opportunities considered if they align with strategic goals; share buybacks are also on the table if suitable opportunities arise [59][76]

Core Insights - A mysterious crypto trader has opened long positions worth millions ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, which may result in interest rate cuts [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, which could enhance liquidity in the crypto market [2] - The last interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was on September 17, where rates were lowered to a range of 4%-4.25% [3] Crypto Market Activity - An on-chain analyst reported that a crypto whale deposited 3.72 million USDC into the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid and opened long positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum, leveraging 15 times [5] - The whale's positions include 300 BTC valued at $34.5 million and 4,874 ETH valued at $20.3 million, both leveraged 15 times [5] - The whale's account, opened in July, has generated a profit exceeding $5 million [6] - The total crypto market cap has shown modest growth, increasing by 0.72% in the last 24 hours to reach $3.87 trillion [6]

Looking ahead to the week ahead. Lots of tech earnings come Wednesday and Thursday. Big meeting between the US and Chinese leader coming up on Thursday, too.Sandwiched in between somewhere, a Federal Reserve decision that we're all taking for granted make the case just an assumption. They cut interest rates again and it's easy sailing, except you and I both know it's different that committee. Mike, how difficult will it be for the Chairman Powell, to communicate anything beyond the October decision.Oh, it's ...

Market Overview - The crypto markets saw a significant bounce, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising to $115,200 and Ether (ETH) trading at $4,160, driven by anticipation of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve [1] - Bitcoin dominance increased to 59.1%, up from a low of 57.1% six weeks ago, indicating a preference for Bitcoin over altcoins [2] Derivatives Positioning - The BVIV, measuring BTC's 30-day implied volatility, dropped to an annualized 44%, signaling reduced market stress [2] - Open interest in futures for most cryptocurrencies, excluding XRP, HYPE, and HBAR, increased, suggesting capital inflows amid the price rally [2] - Despite Bitcoin prices surpassing their October 21 high, total open interest in USDT- and USD-denominated perpetual futures remains below October 21 levels, indicating limited leveraged trader participation [2] Altcoin Performance - The bounce in the crypto market positively affected altcoins, with Zcash (ZEC) and Ethena (ENA) posting double-digit gains [2] - Older tokens like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Dash (DASH) also saw increases of 8% and 9.5%, respectively, while Ether (ETH) surged back into bullish territory at $4,150 [2] - Newly-released tokens Plasma (XPL) and Aster (ASTER) faced significant declines, with Plasma dropping from an initial high of $1.67 to $0.36 and Aster losing 43% of its value over the past month [2]

五人分别是：现任美联储理事Christopher Waller和Michelle Bowman，前美联储理事Kevin Warsh，白宫国家经济 委员会主任Kevin Hassett，以及贝莱德（BlackRock Inc.）高管Rick Rieder。特朗普本人对媒体确认，他预计在年底 前就提名人选做出最终决定。 随着现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期临近，下任主席的遴选工作已进入最后阶段。 据报道，财政部长贝森特周一在"空军一号"上对媒体表示， 美联储主席的候选人范围已缩小至五人。 他们分别是： 现任 美联储理事Christopher Waller和Michelle Bowman，前美联储理事Kevin Warsh，白宫国家经济委员会主任Kevin Hassett，以及贝莱德（BlackRock Inc.）高管Rick Rieder。 贝森特透露，他计划进行新一轮面试，并希望在感恩节假期后向总统特朗普提交一份"优秀的候选人名单"。特朗普本人也 对媒体确认， 他预计在年底前就提名人选做出最终决定。 五人角逐美联储帅位 由财长贝森特确认的这份五人名单，囊括了来自美联储内部、白宫以及华尔街的资深人士。贝森特本人正主导此 ...