【导读】道指再创历史新高；科技股、芯片股多数下跌；金银铜齐涨 中国基金报记者 赵刚 综合整理 美东时间12月11日周四，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指再创历史新高。甲骨文财报再次引发市场对于科技股估值过高的担忧，大型科 技股多数下跌。黄金上涨，白银和铜创新高。 道指再创历史新高 截至收盘，道指涨1.34%，报48704.01点，创历史新高；标普500指数涨0.21%，报6901点；纳指跌0.25%，报23593.86点。 | 美股指数 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 48704.01 | 23593.86 | 6901.00 | | +646.26 +1.34% | -60.30 -0.25% | +14.32 +0.21% | 美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将关键隔夜拆借利率下调25个基点，至3.5%～3.75%区间，并暗示未来降息步伐将放缓。 罗素2000种小盘股指数周四再创收盘纪录新高。 和大公司相比，小公司往往更能在降息中 受益 ，因为其借贷成本与市场利率的关联更为 密切。 经济数据面，由于出口增加，美国9月贸易余额录得逆 ...

r n 国 I EV NI BOLLERS H I iroll min 命曲 T ACHINER II COLLECT 电影 【 = 从维多利亚港远眺香港中环商贸区。 12月11日，香港金融管理局(以下简称"香港金管局")根据预设公式，将香港的基本利率调整为4.00%， 实时生效。香港金管局介绍，基本利率是用作计算经贴现窗进行回购交易时适用的贴现率的基础利率。 余伟文表示，调降利率可以让民众的借贷成本降低，对于香港经济和楼市来说都会有一定的正面作用。 但是，民众也需要考虑到，经济和楼市受到很多其他因素的影响。他分析称，香港经济在过去三个季度 有正面的表现，其中出口和消费方面都比较强。此外，资本市场今年的表现也不错。他预期市场情况进 一步稳定或向上的时候，对经济和楼市会有正面作用。 余伟文强调，美国未来的利率走向有很大的不确定性，对于香港利率环境有影响，提醒民众在进行置 业、投资和借贷时，一定要充分考虑和管理利率风险。他坦言，明年利率走向颇不明确，这是考虑到美 联储的政策需要同时考虑美国通胀和劳工市场两个因素，美联储如何平衡和兼顾这两个政策目标和相关 风险，有一定的难度。所以这次美联储内部不同委员的意见差别较大 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and raised its economic growth forecast for the U.S., leading to a surge in copper prices to a new record high, with most other base metals also rising [1][4] - Copper prices in the London market increased by 3% to $11,906 per ton, surpassing the previous high set on Monday [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's statement indicated increased uncertainty regarding future rate cuts as it seeks to balance growth support and inflation control [1][4] Group 2 - The London Metal Exchange reported a 2.7% increase in copper prices, closing at $11,872 per ton, with all metals except nickel showing gains [3][6] - Tin prices surged by 4.4% to $41,751 per ton, marking the highest level since April 2022, while zinc prices rose by 3.9% [3][6]

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the Fed funds rates to the 3.5%-3.75% range amid persistent inflation and a softening job market [1] - The Fed signaled one additional cut in 2026, projecting rates to be close to 3.4% by the end of that year, and a terminal rate of 3.1% in 2027 [4] Impact on Financial Services Sector - Rate-sensitive sectors, including Financial Services, were top performers in the S&P 500 Index following the rate cut [2] - Major banks saw notable stock price increases, with the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index and the S&P Banks Select Industry Index both rising by 3.3% [3] Bank Performance and Projections - Citigroup's net interest income (NII) is projected to rise 5.5% year over year in 2025, with total revenues expected to exceed $84 billion [12][13] - Bank of America anticipates NII to be $15.6-$15.7 billion in Q4 2025, up 8% year over year, with a CAGR of 9.3% over the last three years [15][17] - KeyCorp expects adjusted total revenues to increase by 15% in 2025, supported by decent loan demand and fee income [19][20] - Wells Fargo aims to stabilize funding costs and grow both consumer and corporate loan assets, with NII expected to remain stable year over year [21][22] - Citizens Financial anticipates NII growth of 3-5% and non-interest income growth of 8-10% in 2025, driven by loan growth and fee income [23][24]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones up by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.72% and 1.38% respectively [1][2]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, reducing it to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut totaling 75 basis points [2][3]. - Market expectations indicate a 22.1% probability of a further 25 basis point cut by January 2026, with a 77.9% chance of maintaining the current rate [2]. Oracle Corporation Performance - Oracle's stock plummeted over 14%, resulting in a market cap loss exceeding $90 billion following disappointing Q2 earnings [4][6]. - The company reported adjusted revenue of $16.1 billion, slightly below the expected $16.21 billion, with cloud revenue growth of 34% to $7.98 billion, but still under analyst expectations [6]. - Oracle's free cash flow was reported at -$10 billion for the quarter, raising concerns among analysts regarding cash flow management [6]. Analyst Reactions to Oracle's Earnings - Following the earnings report, several institutions lowered their price targets for Oracle, with JPMorgan reducing it from $270 to $230, and Baird from $315 to $300 [7]. - Other notable reductions include Royal Bank of Canada from $310 to $250, and Bank of America from $368 to $300 [7]. Impact on Related Stocks - The decline in Oracle's stock negatively affected related technology stocks, with Nvidia and Broadcom dropping over 3%, and Micron Technology and AMD falling nearly 4% [8]. - Chinese tech stocks also experienced declines, with Alibaba and Pinduoduo down over 3%, and other companies like Xpeng and NIO dropping over 2% [8].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve cut the Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, the lowest since late 2022, aimed at supporting the job market and boosting home sales [2][5] - Major stock indices experienced gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% at 48,057, S&P 500 up 0.67% at 6,886, and Nasdaq up 0.33% at 23,564, following the rate cut [2] - Treasury bond yields decreased across the curve, with the 30-year bond closing at 4.79% and the 10-year note at 4.16%, driven by solid buying and expectations of slower inflation [3] - The energy sector saw a rally, with Brent Crude closing at $62.66 (up 1.6%), West Texas Intermediate at $58.95 (up 1.20%), and natural gas at $4.63 (up 1.29%), supported by supply concerns and expectations of higher future demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting, indicating a potential for only one additional cut next year as rates approach a neutral level [1][4]. Interest Rate Cuts - The Fed lowered the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [1]. - The median projection for the federal funds rate is now in the range of 3.25% to 3.5%, suggesting only one rate cut next year and another in 2027 [2]. Inflation and Economic Projections - Inflation remains elevated at approximately 3%, significantly above the Fed's target of 2%, which has delayed earlier rate cuts [3]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a gradual decline in inflation, projecting the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation index to decrease from 2.9% at the end of 2025 to 2.1% by 2027 [6]. - The unemployment rate is expected to decline slightly, with projections of 4.4% next year and 4.2% in 2027 [7]. Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the current funds rate is within a broad range of its neutral value, allowing the Fed to monitor economic developments [8]. - Powell emphasized the Fed's commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target while navigating challenges in the labor market and tariff impacts on inflation [9][10]. - The Fed's monetary policy is not on a fixed path, and adjustments will be made based on incoming economic data [11].

Group 1 - HSBC predicts that the Federal Reserve will not adjust interest rates before 2027 in a risk-balanced context [1]

Group 1 - The market reaction to the Fed's commentary was influenced by prior positioning, with expectations for a more hawkish stance than what was delivered [2][3] - The Federal Reserve aims to achieve a neutral policy rate, with estimates ranging from 2.75% to 3.75%, indicating uncertainty in the exact target [3][4] - The Fed remains data-dependent, with upcoming payroll and CPI reports expected to impact their decision-making [5][6] Group 2 - Since the Fed began cutting rates over a year ago, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased, highlighting a dislocation in market expectations [8][10] - Treasury yields have generally been lower year-to-date, with the U.S. performing well among developed markets [9] - The persistence of high real yields, despite rate cuts, suggests market confidence in structural growth and productivity improvements [11][12]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is stabilizing after experiencing its largest increase in three weeks, with investors preparing for the Federal Reserve's monthly $40 billion Treasury bill purchase program [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond remains steady at 4.14%, while the two-year bond yield stabilized after a significant drop, following the Fed's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] - Jefferies Group's Chief Economist and Strategist Mohit Kumar emphasized the importance of balance sheet expansion, noting that the Fed's purchasing operations will have a stimulative effect as the Treasury shifts its issuance towards Treasury bills and short-term bonds [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release initial jobless claims data, with economists expecting an increase from 191,000 to 220,000 [4] - The U.S. Treasury plans to complete its weekly debt issuance by selling $22 billion in 30-year bonds, following a previous auction that saw widening tail spreads, which pushed yields higher [4] - Other markets, including Eurozone and UK bonds, are generally stable, while Japanese bonds rose due to strong demand in a 20-year bond auction, attracting investors with higher yields [4]