Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment is optimistic with 10 buy signals and 6 sell signals, leading to a summary recommendation of "buy" with a current resistance level at 59.6 HKD [1]. Technical Analysis - As of the latest update, the stock price is at 58 HKD, having fallen below the 10-day moving average of 58.18 HKD but remains above the 30-day (55.11 HKD) and 60-day moving averages (52.16 HKD), indicating that the medium-term trend has not weakened [1]. - The MACD indicator and Bollinger Bands both signal a buy, while the RSI stands at 58, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions [1]. Key Support and Resistance Levels - The critical support level is at 54.4 HKD; if breached, the stock may drop to the support zone at 51.7 HKD. Conversely, the primary resistance level to overcome is 59.6 HKD, which, if surpassed, could lead to a challenge of the yearly high at 62.1 HKD [2]. - Despite the technical indicators suggesting a "buy" rating, the probability of an upward movement is only 54% [2]. Derivative Market Insights - On July 8, in the context of a 2.98% decline in Xiaomi's stock price, related bearish products exhibited significant leverage, with JPMorgan's bear certificate (56964) rising by 40% over two days, outperforming the stock's decline [5]. - Other bearish products, such as Societe Generale's bear certificate (57008), also showed strong performance with a 29% increase, providing substantial returns for bearish investors [5]. Bullish Strategy Recommendations - For investors optimistic about Xiaomi's future, HSBC's call option (14677) and UBS's call option (14816) are noteworthy, both with a strike price of 61.05 HKD and offering approximately 5.5 times leverage, making them suitable for medium-term holding [8]. - For those seeking higher leverage, UBS's bull certificate (64335) and HSBC's bull certificate (64019) provide about 9.6 times actual leverage, with a redemption price set at 52 HKD [8]. Bearish Strategy Recommendations - For bearish investors, UBS's put option (17706) and JPMorgan's put option (16863) offer 4.3 times leverage with a strike price around 54 HKD, with JPMorgan's put option having the lowest premium and implied volatility [11]. - JPMorgan's bear certificate (54810) and Societe Generale's bear certificate (54560) provide an impressive 15.8 times actual leverage, with redemption prices at 60.4 and 60.8 HKD respectively, making them attractive for aggressive investors [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for both coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) is to adopt an oscillating approach. Coking coal futures are expected to oscillate due to optimistic market sentiment, while coke futures are likely to have an interval oscillation due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Supply - Demand Data**: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 940.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.08%. As of the week ending July 4, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million tons but 2.7 million tons lower than the same period last year. The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 111.81 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 million tons [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the supply in the production area has increased in the short term. The upward movement of futures is mainly driven by news. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game is intensifying. It is expected that the main coking coal contract will maintain an oscillating trend [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Data**: The latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1220 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1210 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.42% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The market logic has shifted from fundamental game to expected game. The policy mentioned in the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission may have an impact on coking coal and coke. However, since the coking industry has completed capacity upgrading in recent years, the direct impact on coke may be relatively limited. With a combination of strong expectations and weak realities, coke futures are adjusting in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating approach and pay attention to the recovery of coking coal production and policy dynamics [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Fuling Co., Ltd. has seen significant trading activity, with a turnover rate exceeding 20%, leading to its appearance on the "Dragon and Tiger List" [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Connect seat was notably active, ranking first in buying with an amount of 15.6682 million yuan and third in selling with 15.1290 million yuan, indicating a typical long-short divergence in trading [1] - The buying side showed a diverse characteristic, with Dongfang Caifu Securities Lhasa Donghuan Road Second Branch following closely with a buying amount of 12.1286 million yuan, and the Xinda Securities Bengbu Longteng Road Branch making a notable appearance with a buying amount of 12.0984 million yuan, achieving a 100% increase probability in its previous appearances [1] Group 2 - The selling side exhibited a mix of institutional and retail forces, with Kaiyuan Securities Xi'an West Street Branch leading in selling with an amount of 34.9254 million yuan, maintaining a win rate of over 50% in its last 91 appearances [1] - Institutional proprietary seats showed a net selling amount of 15.9466 million yuan, indicating some institutional funds are choosing to exit [1] - The historical data indicates that the stock has appeared on the list 18 times in the last six months, reflecting sustained market attention [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil market is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will hardly have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply - demand situation is acceptable, with support at the lower price level, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - position mindset should be maintained for the medium - term, and long positions should be gradually established in batches. For the short - term, a neutral mindset is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out trading. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [10] - In the PVC market, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The market is currently rebounding driven by the rebound of the black building materials sector, but will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [12] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover [14] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July [17] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July. However, the LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [20][21] - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The demand side is slightly under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting on rallies [23] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI's main crude oil futures closed down $0.18, a 0.27% decline, at $67; Brent's main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.49% decline, at $68.51; INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.80 yuan, a 0.55% decline, at 503.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.21 million barrels to 9.15 million barrels, a 2.23% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.55 million barrels to 14.35 million barrels, a 4.00% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.57 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 8.48% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 5.23 million barrels, a 6.89% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.76 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 11.03% decrease; the total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.37 million barrels to 40.93 million barrels, a 3.23% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2399 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of +46 [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels. The market has gradually priced in the overseas supply disruptions, and market fluctuations have narrowed. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profit has improved, but the overall level is still low, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. It is expected that the upside space is limited in the off - season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1735 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The short - term domestic operating rate has declined, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer operating rate has continued to decline, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound with the start of autumn fertilizer pre - sales. Export container shipping is still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly. The subsequent demand is concentrated on compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers and exports [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have adjusted downward in a volatile manner [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, it is the seasonal off - season for demand, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: As of July 3, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.73%, 1.89 percentage points lower than the previous week and 1.55 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 70.04%, 7.64 percentage points lower than the previous week and 9.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipping rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase, or a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 million tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 million tons, a 0.3% decrease. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.66 (+1.19) million tons [9][10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 8 yuan to 4906 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 106 (+28) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 97 (+13) yuan/ton [12] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The overall operating rate of PVC this week was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase. Factory inventories were 38.6 million tons (-0.9), and social inventories were 59.2 million tons (+1.7). The corporate profit pressure has further increased, and there are many maintenance plans recently, but the production volume remains high, and there are expectations of multiple plant commissionings in the short - term. The domestic operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is gradually entering the off - season. In July, India's anti - dumping measures are expected to be implemented, and exports are expected to weaken. The cost support is expected to weaken as the calcium carbide production restriction eases [12] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices have fallen, while futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase over the weekend. The cost of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased. It is the seasonal off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has decreased. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate with a downward bias [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen. The主力 contract closed at 7282 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan decrease [17] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase. The spot price of polyethylene has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories at a high level have started to decline marginally, which provides some support for prices. It is the seasonal off - season, and the order volume of agricultural films on the demand side has decreased marginally, with the overall operating rate fluctuating downward. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July. The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen. The主力 contract closed at 7078 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase [18] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in July. The LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 68 yuan to 6672 yuan, and PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 254 yuan (-5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan (-40) [20] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The Chinese PX operating rate was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants have reduced their loads or undergone maintenance, while some overseas plants have restarted or increased their loads. In June, South Korea's PX exports to China were 34 million tons, a 3.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a 16.5 - million - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 271 dollars (-11), and the naphtha crack spread was 73 dollars (+8). After the end of the maintenance season, the PX load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. The current valuation is at a neutral level [20][21] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 55 yuan to 4835 yuan. The basis was 97 yuan (-30), and the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan (-24) [22] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.5% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance or reduced their loads. On June 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.7 million tons, a 0.3 - million - ton decrease. The spot processing fee of PTA fell 7 yuan to 292 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 9 yuan to 333 yuan. In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and it is not expected to significantly reduce production, but the bottle - chip plants have plans to reduce production. The demand side is slightly under pressure [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4277 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4365 yuan. The basis was 76 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan (0) [23] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 66.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants have undergone maintenance or restarted. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 15 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 3 was 1 million tons. Port inventories were 54.5 million tons, a 7.7 - million - ton decrease. The naphtha - based production profit was - 483 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 828 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1028 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 490 yuan. It is expected that the port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants [23]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing intensified long and short positions, with prices touching key support levels, raising questions about the potential formation of a double bottom structure or the continuation of a downward trend [1] Group 1 - The current market dynamics indicate a significant battle between bullish and bearish sentiments in the gold sector [1] - Key support levels have been reached, which could influence future price movements and market strategies [1] - The potential for a double bottom formation is being closely monitored, as it could signal a reversal in the current trend [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 多空博弈加剧，碳酸锂盘面振幅放大 市场分析 2025年6月25日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60700元/吨，收于60880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.96%。当 日成交量为366743手，持仓量为350406手，较前一交易日增加6842手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳680 元/吨。所有合约总持仓630554手，较前一交易日减少982手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少408949手，成交 量451997，整体投机度为0.72。当日碳酸锂仓单22370手，较上个交易日减少5手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月25日电池级碳酸锂报价5.97-6.07万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.03万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.81-5.91万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.03万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心呈现震荡上行，主 要受期货盘面反弹影响。当前碳酸锂过剩格局仍未改变。从供应端看，市场可流通货源充足，库存压力尚未得到 有效缓解；需求侧则未有显著增量预期，下游正极材料企业维持谨慎采购策略，仅以刚需采购为主。此前碳酸锂 价格快速下探，已逐步逼近行 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coke market is experiencing a shift in sentiment with the accumulation of positive factors, leading to intensified long - short competition and low - level wide - range oscillations. However, considering the potential recovery of coking coal supply after the safety month and long - term pressure on black metal terminal exports, the market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and coke futures may continue to fluctuate widely [5][34]. - For coking coal, the supply has been affected by safety inspections, environmental protection, and operational pressures during the safety month, and the price inversion of imported coal has curbed imports, alleviating the pessimistic outlook on the fundamentals. But with the end of the safety month in June and the expected increase in supply in July, the market has mixed factors, and coking coal futures are also expected to fluctuate widely [6][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations on June 25, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan, which is the fourth consecutive month of increased operations. The mid - term liquidity net investment has exceeded 300 billion yuan this month. The market expects the subsequent monetary policy to remain moderately flexible and strengthen support for the real economy [8]. - On June 25, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 63.5 US dollars per ton, down 1.5 US dollars from the previous period. All 102,400 tons on offer failed to sell. Since the beginning of the year, all 11 auctions have failed, with a total of 537,600 tons unsold [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, flat - price) | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 3.94% | - 8.96% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,150 yuan/ton | - 1.71% | - 5.74% | - 29.01% | - 41.03% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 865 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | - 1.65% | - 6.30% | - 20.13% | - 44.13% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase | High | Low | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,387.5 yuan/ton | 1.46% | 1,396.5 yuan/ton | 1,345.5 yuan/ton | 34,007 | 4,246 | 51,275 | - 1,125 | | Coking Coal | - | 804.5 points | 0.75% | 805.0 points | 778.5 points | 839,404 | - 212,966 | 524,258 | - 9,292 | [14] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory trends of coke and coking coal, including those of independent coking plants, steel mills, ports, and mines, as well as other related production and demand indicators such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, and coking plant production [15][22][28] Market Outlook - Coke: On June 25, the main coke contract closed at 1,387.5 yuan/ton, with a 1.46% increase. The open interest decreased by 1,125 lots. Spot prices in Rizhao and Qingdao ports declined week - on - week. The market is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in June [5][34]. - Coking Coal: On June 25, the main coking coal contract closed at 804.5 points, with a 0.75% increase. The open interest decreased by 9,292 lots. The market has mixed factors, and with the expected increase in supply in July, it is also expected to fluctuate widely [6][35].

最近沃勒、鲍曼这些美联储大佬接二连三放话"7月可能降息"，连鲍威尔在国会都松了口。现在期货市场押注年内降息60个基点，比一周前又多押了15个 基点。道理很简单：降息预期一升温，债券价格就涨，收益率自然往下掉，交易员算的就是这个账。 第二股：中东停火+油价"神助攻" 特朗普突然宣布伊朗以色列停火，国际油价唰地跌了，通胀压力暂时缓解。再加上美国消费者信心数据爆冷，市场马上觉得"经济降温"剧本要上演，资金 就往美债里钻，推着收益率往下走。 老铁们，我是帮主郑重，在财经圈摸爬滚打20年，专做中长线的老炮儿。最近美债市场可有点热闹——交易员砸了3800万美金押注10年期收益率跌到 4%，这事儿得掰开了揉碎了聊。咱今儿就说说，这4%的坎儿背后，到底藏着哪些门道？ 先看交易员咋出牌：真金白银押注"跌跌不休" 上周五到周一，8月到期的10年期美债看涨期权突然火了，光权利金就涌进3800万美金。啥概念？就像一群老江湖集体买保险，赌收益率从现在4.3%跌到 4%。要是真跌到位，那可是自打4月特朗普搞关税突袭以来的最低位，直接把5月涨到4.6%的那波猛劲儿给"掰弯"了。 更有意思的是，周一有笔1000万的大单，直接锁定了行权价11 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Author: Cao Jianlan [1] - Author ID: Z0019556 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. Group 3: Core View - The recent trading of the log futures market is based on the logic of delivery costs. The main contract has rebounded from a low of around 750 to over 800 yuan, and the monthly structure has changed to the pattern of near - strong and far - weak. Fundamentally, the demand for logs enters the off - season during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. There is still pressure from the increase in the arrival volume in June. Currently, New Zealand is in winter, and the shipping volume is expected to decrease seasonally, leading to a situation of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract has 6 trading days left before entering the delivery month, and the long - short game on the futures market continues. It is recommended to mainly wait and watch on a single - side basis, and pay attention to risk control as the main contract gradually switches [3][4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On June 20, the prices of log 2507, log 2509, and log 2511 contracts were 812.0, 797.5, and 794.0 yuan/m³ respectively, with increases of 14.0, 3.5, and 2.5 yuan/m³ and corresponding increases of 1.75%, 0.44%, and 0.32% compared to June 19 [2]. - Spreads: The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads on June 20 were 14.5, 3.5, and 18.0 yuan/m³ respectively, with increases of 10.5, 1.0, and 11.5 yuan/m³ compared to June 19 [2]. - Basis: The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts on June 20 were - 62.0, - 47.5, and - 44.0 yuan/m³ respectively, with decreases of 14.0, 3.5, and 2.5 yuan/m³ compared to June 19 [2]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on June 20 compared to June 19, with the prices of 3.9A small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port being 730.0, 750, and 840 yuan/m³ respectively, and those in Taicang Port being 730, 760, and 800 yuan/m³ respectively. The price of spruce 11.8 in Rizhao Port was 1090 yuan/m³ [2]. - Outer - market quotes: The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged at 110 US dollars/JAS m³ and 123 euros/JAS m³ respectively from June 13 to June 20 [2]. - Import cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on June 20 was 7.182 yuan, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared to June 19. The import theoretical cost was 777.37 yuan, a decrease of 1.22 yuan compared to June 19 [2]. Group 5: Supply - Monthly supply: In May, the port shipping volume of logs was 195.5 million m³, an increase of 22.8 million m³ or 13.20% compared to April. The number of ships in the port decreased by 5 to 58, a decrease of 7.94% [2]. Group 6: Inventory - Weekly inventory: As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 345 million m³, a week - on - week increase of 6 million m³. The inventories in Shandong and Jiangsu were 201.00 million m³ and 113.31 million m³ respectively, with week - on - week increases of 9.5 million m³ (4.96%) and 1.3 million m³ (1.19%) [2][3]. Group 7: Demand - Weekly demand: As of June 13, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 5.98 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 million m³ or 5%. The daily average outbound volumes in Shandong and Jiangsu were 3.30 million m³ and 1.90 million m³ respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 0.08 million m³ (2%) and 0.38 million m³ (17%) [2][3]

2025年6月20日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 美两周内决定是否攻击伊朗,原油波动持续,近期博弈难度较大,建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1697.63点，较上期上涨4.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1536.84点，较上期下跌7.94% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2908.68点，较上期上涨33.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1307.92点，较上期上涨16.4% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）2230.99点，较上期下跌31.55% | | 6月13日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格2088.24点,较上期下跌152.11点 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1844USD/TEU, 较上期上涨10.62% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1243.05点，较上期上涨7.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线4 ...