对于市场而言，无论下一任美联储主席是谁，抗击通胀的机构信誉仍是不可动摇的底线。尽管市场目前沉浸在对宽松货币政策的期待 中，但2026年强劲的增长和顽固的通胀前景，正对这一鸽派叙事构成严峻挑战。 近期的市场波动凸显了投资者对货币政策的高度敏感。美联储主席鲍威尔上月在FOMC会议后的鹰派表态曾一度引发纳斯达克100指数 从高点回落约8%。然而，纽约联储主席John Williams在11月21日的鸽派讲话迅速扭转了市场情绪，不仅推动股市几乎完全收复失地， 还将市场对12月降息的预期概率推升至85%。 与此同时，关于美联储下一任主席人选的讨论也成为市场焦点。周二，据有"新美联储通讯社"之称的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos 报道，特朗普总统似乎已倾向于选择长期顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）担任这一职位。根据Polymarket的数据，他被提名的概率已升至 80%。Hassett被市场普遍视作宽松货币政策的拥护者，这进一步强化了市场的鸽派预期。 在增长前景强劲的同时，通胀问题依然棘手。目前，核心通胀率仍比美联储2%的目标高出约1个百分点，且下降势头已经停滞。在经 济存在100个基点正产出缺口的情 ...

再创收盘历史新高 贵金属方面，市场对美联储本月降息预期升温的同时，也更加看好"鸽派"的白宫国家经济委员会主任哈 西特被提名为下任美联储主席的前景。外界预计，一旦哈西特出任美联储主席，美联储将在明年继续推 进宽松货币政策，国际金价周一上涨，并升至六周来的高位。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年2月交割 的黄金期价收于每盎司4274.8美元，涨幅为0.47%。 12月1日白银期价上涨 来源：南国今报 当地时间周一（12月1日），市场对美联储12月降息的预期仍在升温，同时，随着美日利息差收窄，大 量套息交易资金逐步平仓日本海外头寸，加剧全球风险资产价格下跌风险。此外，周一公布的最新数据 显示，美国11月供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为48.2，低于预期，并连续第9个月陷入萎 缩区间，令市场谨慎看待美国经济基本面，投资者情绪受到打压，美国三大股指周一集体收跌。截至收 盘，道指跌0.90%，标普500指数跌0.53%，纳指跌0.38%。 12月1日国际金价升至六周来高位 此外，白银期价周一延续上周涨势，并再创收盘历史新高。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年3月交割的 白银期价收于每盎司59.142美元，涨幅为3.46% ...

12月1日，国际金价升至六周来高位，白银期价上涨。 当地时间周一，市场对美联储1 2月降息的预期仍在升温，同时，随着美日利息差收窄，大量套息交易资金逐步平仓日本海外头寸，加剧 全球风险资产价格下跌风险。此外，周一公布的最新数据显示，美国11月供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为48. 2，低于预 期，并连续第9个月陷入萎缩区间，令市场谨慎看待美国经济基本面，投资者情绪受到打压，美国三大股指周一集体收跌。截至收盘， 道指跌0.90%，标普5 00指数跌0 .5 3%，纳指跌0.38%。 12月1日国际金价升至六周来高位 贵金属方面，市场对美联储本月降息预期升温的同时，也更加看好"鸽派"的白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特被提名为下任美联储主席的 前景。外界预计，一旦哈西特出任美联储主席，美联储将在明年继续推进宽松货币政策，国际金价周一上涨，并升至六周来的高位。截 至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年2月交割的黄金期价收于每盎司4 274.8美元，涨幅为0.4 7%。 12月1日白银期价上涨 再创收盘历史新高 此外，白银期价周一延续上周涨势，并再创收盘历史新高。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年3月交割的白银期价收于每盎司5 ...

今日周二（12月2日）亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4200美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4211.31美元/盎司，跌幅0.45%，最高上探至4235.28美元/盎司，最低触及4200.09美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 在上周，美联储12月降息的概率出现反转，一举超过80%。与此同时，美国财政部长贝森特透露了一个 备受瞩目的消息：特朗普极有可能在圣诞节前正式宣布下一任美联储主席的人选。而在众多潜在候选人 中，现任白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特被视为热门之选。哈塞特一贯秉持支持宽松货币政策的 立场，市场普遍认为，若他成功上任，其政策倾向将比现任美联储主席更具"鸽派"色彩。这一预期使得 交易员们纷纷加大对未来降息的押注力度，进而为金价营造出极为利好的前景。 即便12月美联储并未如市场预期般降息，后续陆续公布的数据却持续表明通胀问题依旧顽固，同时美国 经济仍保持着一定的韧性。在这样的背景下，市场普遍预测，美联储在2026年仍将会持续降低利率，而 这无疑将对黄金形成直接的利好。从长期趋势来看，黄金的上行态势并未发生改变。因此，任何一次回 调触及支撑位的情况，对于投资者而言， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are rising, contributing to a cautious outlook on the U.S. economy as the November PMI for manufacturing fell to 48.2, marking the ninth consecutive month in contraction territory [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.90%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.53%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.38% on the same day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - The nomination of "dovish" NEC Director Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to increased optimism for continued accommodative monetary policy, resulting in a rise in gold prices to a six-week high, with February futures closing at $4,274.8 per ounce, up 0.47% [2][3] - Silver prices also continued their upward trend, reaching a record closing high of $59.142 per ounce for March futures, with a gain of 3.46%, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and tightening supply due to declining global silver production and inventory [5] Group 3: European Markets - European stock indices experienced collective declines, with the UK market down 0.18%, France down 0.32%, and Germany down 1.04%, as investors focused on the potential for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [7] Group 4: Oil Market - International oil prices rose over 1% due to the U.S. announcement of a "full closure" of Venezuelan airspace, which heightened regional tensions, and OPEC+'s decision to pause production increases until the first quarter of 2026. Light crude futures for January closed at $59.32 per barrel, up 1.32%, while Brent crude for February settled at $63.17 per barrel, up 1.27% [7]

Core Points - Japan's stock and bond markets faced significant declines on December 1, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 1.89% and bond prices plummeting, leading to the highest yields since 2008 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a high opening but fell over 1,000 points during the day, closing with a 1.89% decline [1] - Japanese government bond prices fell sharply, with the two-year bond yield rising by 2.5 basis points to 1.015%, marking the highest level since 2008 [1] - The yield on the newly issued 10-year government bonds reached 1.840%, the highest since June 2008 [1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation have intensified due to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's push for aggressive fiscal policies and a commitment to maintain loose monetary policy [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank would weigh the pros and cons of a potential interest rate hike, suggesting a cautious approach [3] - Speculation about a possible interest rate increase in December has been growing, with the yen depreciating by 5% against the dollar this quarter, making it the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies [4] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to increase the issuance of short-term bonds to support the economic stimulus plan proposed by Prime Minister Kishida, raising the issuance of two-year and five-year bonds by 300 billion yen [4] - The issuance of 6.3 trillion yen in treasury bills is also planned, which may exert pressure on Japan's short-term sovereign bonds [4] - Analysts suggest that caution regarding Japanese bonds is prudent due to potential inflation acceleration and a significant increase in mid-term government bond issuance affecting supply-demand balance [4]

Group 1 - Japan's stock market faced a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 2% to 49,224.94 points, and closing down 1.89% at 49,303.28 points [1][2] - Japanese government bonds plummeted due to renewed expectations of interest rate hikes, with the 2-year bond yield surpassing 1% for the first time since 2008, and the 10-year yield rising to 1.85%, marking the highest levels since June 2008 [1][2] - The probability of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in December increased to 64%, as Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a potential adjustment to the monetary policy [2] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market continued to decline, with Bitcoin falling to around $86,000, down 5.34%, and Ethereum dropping over 5%, while other cryptocurrencies like Solana and Dogecoin fell more than 7% [2] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 210,000 individuals in the cryptocurrency market faced liquidation, totaling approximately $639 million [2]

彭博社上周援引匿名知情人士消息称，在特朗普及其顾问和盟友眼中，哈西特是美国联邦储备委员会下任主席头 号候选人。他被视为能将特朗普所主张降息政策带入美联储的人。 现年63岁的哈西特拥有宾夕法尼亚大学经济学博士学位。1989年，他以哥伦比亚大学助理教授身份开启职业生 涯，随后在美联储工作至1997年。之后他加入一家保守派智库美国企业研究所，并逐渐成为共和党的经济专家之 一。他曾担任乔治·W·布什、约翰·麦凯恩和米特·罗姆尼的经济顾问，在特朗普第一任期内担任多项职务，包括经 济顾问委员会主任，新冠疫情期间还担任经济事务高级顾问。 哈西特长期主张减税、宽松货币政策，并公开支持更快、更多的降息，还曾批评美联储在疫情后让通胀失控，认 为当前利率过高、制约经济增长。 面对提名传闻，哈西特在美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）《面对全国》（Face the Nation）节目中采取"既不否认也 不确认"的态度，将彭博社的报道称作"谣言"，同时又表示"能跻身优秀候选人之列深感荣幸"，如果受邀担任美联 储主席，会很乐意接受。 他提及市场对"特朗普即将提名主席人选"的积极反应，称"这一消息泄露时，看看市场的反应，那是非常非常积极 的。国 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **Chinese export market** and the **RMB exchange rate** outlook for 2026, highlighting the resilience of Chinese exports despite US-China trade tensions and the strategic shift towards non-US markets [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Growth**: Chinese exports are expected to recover to approximately **5% growth** in 2026, aided by demand from Africa and Central Asia, compensating for the decline in exports to the US [1][2]. - **US Tariff Impact**: The likelihood of significant new tariffs from the US on Chinese goods is low, with existing tariffs having a diminished marginal impact due to the reduced share of exports to the US, now around **10%** [5][3]. - **Global Economic Policies**: The dual monetary and fiscal easing policies in major economies are expected to sustain overseas demand, with the US likely to continue a **rate cut cycle** into 2026, potentially lowering rates four times [1][7]. - **AI Investment Influence**: The expansion of AI investments in the US is driving demand for semiconductors and related products, positively impacting Chinese exports in these sectors [9][6]. - **Strengthening Trade Relations with Africa**: China has established zero-tariff treatment for all products with African nations, significantly increasing exports of construction machinery and related products, which are expected to grow further due to infrastructure demands [10][3]. Additional Important Insights - **RMB Exchange Rate Forecast**: The RMB is projected to appreciate against the USD, potentially reaching **6.7-6.8** by the end of 2026, driven by a surplus in the current account and increased net capital inflows [13][14]. - **Investment Trends**: Foreign investment in Chinese financial assets has been increasing, with a notable **62.29 billion CNY** net increase in A-shares, indicating a positive outlook for capital inflows [16]. - **Long-term RMB Outlook**: The RMB is expected to experience gradual appreciation with low volatility, potentially breaking below **7.0** against the USD by 2026, supported by favorable economic conditions and capital flows [17]. Risks and Opportunities - **Risks**: The main risks for Chinese exports in 2026 include potential fluctuations in US tariffs and global economic conditions, although these risks are expected to be mitigated by ongoing trade agreements and reduced reliance on the US market [5][6]. - **Opportunities**: The continued growth in non-US markets, particularly in Africa and ASEAN, presents significant opportunities for Chinese exports, enhancing resilience against market fluctuations [12][6]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, focusing on the Chinese export landscape and the RMB exchange rate outlook, while highlighting both risks and opportunities in the current economic environment.

Core Insights - The core consumer price index (CPI) for Tokyo's 23 wards increased by 2.8% year-on-year in November, reaching a value of 111.4 [1] Price Changes - Excluding fresh food, food prices rose by 6.5% year-on-year in November [1] - Specific price increases include: - Regular japonica rice: up 38.5% - Sushi: up 14.5% - Rice balls: up 17.3% - Chocolate: up 32.5% - Coffee beans: up 63.4% - Chicken: up 12.3% [1] Energy and Accommodation Costs - Electricity prices increased by 4.5% year-on-year due to the suspension of government subsidies for electricity and gas [1] - Hotel accommodation costs rose by 9.2% year-on-year [1] Economic Policy Concerns - There are concerns among Japanese media and experts that the expansionary fiscal and loose monetary policies implemented by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may exacerbate yen depreciation and further increase inflationary pressures in Japan [1]