近日，亚洲股市连续第二个交易日上涨，美元兑日元汇率小幅走低，市场对美联储即将采取降息措施的预期显著增强。OEXN认 为，随着全球经济增长放缓迹象显现，投资者纷纷押注美联储将在未来数月内实施降息，以支持经济复苏，这成为市场情绪的关键 推动力。 此外，美国企业财报季进入尾声，市场依然关注包括迪士尼和卡特彼勒在内的重磅企业财报。科技巨头如Nvidia、Alphabet和Meta 近期股价大幅上涨，人工智能相关服务需求强劲推动了Palantir上调全年营收预期，进一步提振投资者信心。 OEXN认为，当前全球经济面临多重挑战，包括产油国产量上升和地缘贸易紧张局势，但宽松货币政策的预期成为提振风险资产的 重要因素。投资者应关注美联储政策动向及企业盈利表现，灵活调整投资策略，把握市场波动带来的机会。 美元兑日元汇率小幅回落至146.96，反映出投资者在美元走弱预期下调整仓位。欧元兑美元持稳于1.1572水平，美元指数在经历两 天下滑后略有反弹。整体来看，市场对美元的避险需求有所减弱，更倾向于押注降息后带来的流动性改善。 具体来看，美国上周五发布的非农就业数据不及预期，加剧了市场对经济增长放缓的担忧。这一消息促使市场对9月份 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **U.S. employment market** and its implications for the **U.S. economy** and **capital markets**. Additionally, there is a focus on the **A-share and Hong Kong stock markets**. Key Points and Arguments U.S. Employment Market - The U.S. job market data has shown weakness, with May and June's job additions revised down by **260,000**, and July's additions at only **73,000**. The unemployment rate rose to **4.2%**, providing justification for the Federal Reserve's three expected rate cuts in 2025 [1][2] - The significant downward revision in July's job additions to **14,000** from an initial estimate of **147,000** indicates a **90% reduction**. This adjustment is concentrated in the government, leisure, hospitality, and construction sectors, which collectively accounted for **70%** of the total downward revision [2] Federal Reserve Policy - Following the Federal Reserve's leadership change, a continuation of **loose monetary policy** is expected. Short-term forecasts suggest a decline in the **U.S. dollar index** and **2-year Treasury yields**, while the **10-year Treasury yield** remains uncertain due to inflation risks [5] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to support the U.S. stock market, which is projected to achieve a soft landing in the medium to long term, despite short-term fluctuations [5] Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market is on a positive trajectory, with expectations for the A-share and Hong Kong markets to surpass their September 2024 highs. This is driven by improved external pressures, anti-involution policies, and new infrastructure projects [6][7] - Factors supporting the domestic capital market include resilience in fundamentals, improved liquidity, and increased willingness of individual investors to enter the market [7][8] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Despite recent market pullbacks, the number of high-performing stocks remains significant, indicating that thematic investment sentiment among small and medium-sized investors has not diminished [8] - Long-term funds, such as insurance and MVC, have consistently entered the market, providing support during fluctuations [8] Future Market Outlook - Three main factors are expected to support the stock market's upward trajectory in the second half of the year: the development of emerging industries, verification of mid-year performance, and favorable external risk preferences [9][10] - The stock index is anticipated to be relatively easy to rise in August and the following month, with expectations of a slight upward trend [10] Bond Market - In the previous week, **263 credit bonds** were issued, totaling **255.1 billion** yuan, a **57%** decrease from the previous period. The average issuance term was **3.67 years**, with an average coupon rate of **2.26%** [11] Fund Performance - July saw a positive performance in the A-share market, with a significant increase in the number of rising stocks. High-risk preference among retail funds is recovering, while stable long-term funds have increased their positions [12] - Event-driven investment opportunities have performed well, with notable excess returns from institutional research combinations [12][13] Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards the equity market remains optimistic, although a slight pullback may occur in the short term. The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to a sustained upward trading trend [14]

菲律宾央行表示，7月通胀率降至近六年低点后，采取更宽松的货币政策立场仍是必要的。该央行在一 份声明中称，预计2025年平均通胀率将低于目标区间的下限，主要原因是大米价格持续下跌。预计2026 年和2027年通胀将呈上升趋势，但仍将稳定在2%-4%的目标范围内。受美国贸易政策不确定性和中东持 续地缘政治冲突影响，全球经济活动出现减速迹象。菲律宾央行表示，这些动态可能会导致国内增长放 缓。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold rose 0.52% to 784.50 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.73% to 9067.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.10% to 3429.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.27% to 37.43 US dollars/ounce [2] - The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds was reported at 4.22%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.68 [2] - The closing prices of various precious metal products such as Au(T+D), London gold, and SPDR gold ETF holdings showed different degrees of changes, with some rising and some falling [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - San Francisco Fed President Daly made a dovish statement on monetary policy this morning. Driven by last Friday's non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Fed making a larger rate cut has increased, and the prices of gold and silver have been supported [2] - After the non-farm payroll data was released last Friday, the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy rebounded significantly. The CME interest rate observer showed that the probability of the Fed implementing a 25-basis-point rate cut in the September interest rate meeting rose to 94.4%, and it was also expected that the Fed would continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October interest rate meeting [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - With Trump strongly pressuring the independence of the Fed's monetary policy through personnel appointments, coupled with employment data far lower than expected, it is certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies subsequently. In terms of precious metal strategies, it is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 773 - 801 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8885 - 9287 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Data Summary - The report provides detailed data summaries of gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, and other data, as well as their daily changes, daily price increases and decreases, and historical quantiles in the past year [7] Group 5: Charts and Graphs - The report includes multiple charts and graphs showing the relationship between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interest, and other factors, as well as the structure of near and far months and price differences at home and abroad [9][10][12]

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's annual inflation rate unexpectedly decreased to 33.52% in July, marking the 14th consecutive month of decline since the peak in May of the previous year [1] Inflation Data - July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.06% month-on-month, lower than market expectations, compared to a 1.37% increase in June and a year-on-year increase of 35.05% [1] - Key contributors to monthly inflation included a rise in transportation prices by 2.89%, alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices by 5.69%, and housing prices by 5.78% [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The ongoing release of inflationary pressure creates favorable conditions for monetary easing, leading the Central Bank of Turkey to cut the policy rate by 300 basis points, restarting the easing cycle after a pause in April due to financial and political turmoil [1] - The Central Bank expressed increased confidence in the trend of declining inflation, with expectations that inflation could fall to a range of 24%-29% by the end of the year [1] Producer Price Index - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.73% month-on-month and 24.19% year-on-year [1]

Group 1: Market Data - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% [4] - London gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46%; London silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [4] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 953.08 tons, down 0.15%; SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,056.66 tons, down 0.04% [4] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was 4.23%, down 0.14 percentage points; TIPS was 1.90%, down 0.08 percentage points [4] - The US dollar index was 98.69, down 1.36%; the offshore RMB was 7.2545, down 0.49% [4] - The Dow Jones Index was 43,588.58, down 1.23%; the S&P 500 was 6,238.01, down 1.60%; the Nasdaq Index was 20,650.13, down 2.24%; the VIX Index was 20.38, up 21.89% [4] - The London FTSE 100 was 9,068.58, down 0.70%; the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index was 40,799.60, down 0.66% [4] Group 2: Market Performance of Gold and Silver - COMEX gold closed at 3,416.00 dollars/ounce, up 2.21%; trading volume was 22.23 million lots, up 43.81%; open interest was 44.53 million lots, down 9.02%; inventory was 1,204 tons, up 0.10% [7] - LBMA gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46% [7] - SHFE gold closed at 770.72 yuan/gram, up 0.06%; trading volume was 22.64 million lots, down 30.20%; open interest was 43.16 million lots, up 0.44%; inventory was 35.75 tons, up 0.29%; precipitation funds were 53.229 billion yuan, up 0.50% [7] - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08%; trading volume was 24.78 tons, down 23.64%; open interest was 206.33 tons, down 1.85% [7] - COMEX silver closed at 37.11 dollars/ounce, up 0.86%; open interest was 17.03 million lots, down 1.93%; inventory was 15,759 tons, up 0.29% [7] - LBMA silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [7] - SHFE silver closed at 8,918.00 yuan/kilogram, down 1.00%; trading volume was 77.75 million lots, down 44.22%; open interest was 78.57 million lots, down 1.47%; inventory was 1,183.96 tons, down 1.99%; precipitation funds were 18.918 billion yuan, down 2.46% [7] - Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80%; trading volume was 421.57 tons, down 37.62%; open interest was 3,483.588 tons, up 1.26% [7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The much weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data reversed the previous market judgment on the resilience of the US economy; after the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy rebounded significantly [2][3] - The CME interest rate observer shows that the current market expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting has risen to 80.3%, and it is also expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [3] - With Trump's strong pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and the much lower-than-expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [3] - The precious metals strategy suggests buying on dips; the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 773 - 801 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8,885 - 9,287 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Price Comparison and Spread Analysis - Gold internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was -15.23 yuan/gram (-65.69 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was -13.61 yuan/gram (-58.87 dollars/ounce) [54] - Silver internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was 317.21 yuan/kilogram (1.37 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was 327.56 yuan/kilogram (1.42 dollars/ounce) [54]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market demonstrated resilience amid a significant downturn in Western markets, with 3,178 stocks rising despite the overall index decline, indicating a strategic defense by major funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the day of the U.S. market crash, the Shanghai Composite Index only fell by 0.37%, while the ChiNext index remained stable at 2,304 points, showcasing a strong defensive posture [2][3]. - Despite the overall market showing red, sectors such as power equipment and coal stocks attracted significant capital inflows, with power equipment gaining 1.9 billion yuan and coal stocks receiving 730 million yuan in purchases [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Fund Management - Major funds anticipated the downturn in Western markets and established a solid defense at the 3,550-point level, which is a key Fibonacci retracement point [3][14]. - The People's Bank of China signaled continued monetary easing, with liquidity reserves reaching 7.4 trillion yuan, indicating a robust support mechanism for the market [3][14]. Group 3: External Influences - The U.S. non-farm payroll data significantly underperformed, leading to a spike in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index, which triggered panic selling in global markets [1][5]. - The depreciation of the dollar positively impacted the offshore yuan, which appreciated by 400 basis points, benefiting foreign investors holding 2.1 trillion yuan in A-shares [8][12]. Group 4: Sectoral Insights - The industrial sector showed strong performance, with companies like Sany Heavy Industry reporting a 67% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, highlighting the structural differentiation within the A-share market [5][12]. - The gold sector also saw significant gains, with London gold prices rising by 2.3% to a historical high, reflecting a dual strategy of hedging against economic downturns while betting on China's manufacturing recovery [12][14]. Group 5: Valuation Comparisons - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is only 13.1 times, indicating that A-shares are undervalued compared to U.S. stocks, where similar growth companies have P/E ratios exceeding 30 times [14]. - The A-share market has outperformed the Dow Jones, with an 18% increase in the first seven months of the year, contrasting with the Dow's 5% rise, suggesting a decoupling from Western market trends [14].

Group 1: Real Estate Tax Revenue - In the first half of 2025, real estate tax revenue reached 261.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12% [1] - The overall public budget revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - The land appreciation tax decreased by 17.6% to 253.5 billion yuan, contrasting with the growth in real estate tax [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Property Market - The Hong Kong government is considering easing restrictions for mainland talents to invest in property, aiming to boost the local economy [2] - McDonald's plans to sell all its properties in Hong Kong, with an estimated market value of nearly 3 billion HKD, while restaurant operations will remain unaffected [3] Group 3: Economic Policies - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stimulate economic growth [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs [5][6] Group 4: Global Business Landscape - The 2025 Fortune Global 500 list revealed that 130 Chinese companies had a total revenue of approximately 10.7 trillion yuan, a decline of about 3% from the previous year [9] - The average profit of Chinese companies on the list was 4.2 billion USD, significantly lower than their American counterparts [9] Group 5: AI and Employment - AI is predicted to create more millionaires in the next five years than the internet did in the past 20 years, highlighting its potential as a technological equalizer [10] - Bill Gates suggested that individuals should embrace AI tools and maintain curiosity to navigate the changing job landscape [11]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has announced a clear intention to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of 2025, which includes the possibility of lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, signaling a supportive stance for both the market and the real economy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The central bank's meeting emphasized the need for a loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, indicating that funding will remain abundant [1] - There is a strong likelihood of both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions being implemented [1] Group 2: Market Support - The establishment of the Macro-Prudential and Financial Stability Committee by the central bank aims to support the stable operation of the capital market [1] - The central bank has reiterated its commitment to optimizing policies that support the capital market, which is expected to stabilize market expectations [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed most major markets in the first half of the year, with a significant increase in trading volume and a booming IPO market [1][2] - The average daily trading volume reached HKD 240.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 82.2%, with a peak in February at HKD 297.3 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 20%, 19%, and 18.7% respectively, outperforming most overseas markets [1] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume of derivatives increased by 10% during the first half of the year [1] - Southbound trading accounted for 23.1% of the overall market trading volume, up from 18.3% in 2024, with a net buy of HKD 731.2 billion, equivalent to 91% of last year's total [2] - The average daily short-selling volume was HKD 37 billion, representing 15.4% of the total market volume [2] IPO Market - A total of 42 new stocks were listed in the first half of the year, raising HKD 107.1 billion, which is seven times higher than the same period last year, making Hong Kong the top global market for IPOs [2] - Four of the new listings raised over HKD 5 billion, and seven were A+H shares, collectively raising about HKD 77 billion [2] Market Stability - The nominal value of over-the-counter derivatives tracking Hong Kong stocks and indices increased from HKD 1.3 trillion to approximately HKD 1.6 trillion, while maintaining a stable ratio to the market capitalization [1] - The total short positions reached HKD 707.1 billion, an increase of HKD 259.6 billion from the end of last year, accounting for 1.73% of the market capitalization [2]