海澜之家总部爆火背后，是营收和净利润双双下滑。 进入2025年4月下旬，发布2024年年报的A股上市公司占总数的90%以上。直至4月30日，国内服装行业头部上市公司海澜之家的财报才姗姗来迟，2024年 海澜之家营收209.6亿元，同比下滑2.65%；净利润21.59亿元，同比下滑26.88%。 此前从其2024年前三季度财报可以看出。截至到2024年9月末，海澜之家的营收、归母净利润等业绩表现已经陷入负增长，2024年前三季度，海澜之家营 收152.6亿元，同比下滑1.99%；归母净利润19.08亿元，同比下滑22.19%。同期该公司的存货规模暴涨创下历史新高，达到123亿元。近6个月以内共有27 家机构对海澜之家的2024年度业绩作出预测；预测2024年净利润22.95亿元，较去年同比下降22.24%、每股收益0.48元，较去年同比下降29.41%。至此， 海澜之家交出的2024年答卷甚至低于市场预期。 受此影响，海澜之家近期股价涨幅不大，进入2025年股价整体上涨约5%，低于2024年全年14%的涨幅。但从整体上看，如今海澜之家的股价相比2015年 的17.11元的股价高点已经腰斩有余，截至4月29日海澜 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/05/06 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/04/2 4 801 2437 2455 2740 2610 2720 2840 261 340 164 35 -875 2025/04/2 5 801 2440 2458 2740 2610 2720 2780 261 340 163 30 -867 2025/04/2 8 801 2450 2455 2680 2610 2720 2770 261 340 206 135 -918 2025/04/2 9 801 2450 2425 2675 2610 2720 2770 261 340 184 140 -842 2025/04/3 0 801 2453 2415 2650 2610 2720 2755 258 340 218 170 -812 日度变化 0 3 -10 -25 0 0 -15 -3 0 34 30 30 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将去化至季节性低位，警 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenues for Q1 2025 were down 21% at $3.8 billion, with industrial adjusted EBIT at $101 million, down 73% year-over-year, and EPS for the quarter at $0.10 [12][19] - Free cash flow for industrial activities was an outflow of $567 million, which is significantly better compared to Q1 2024 due to more contained growth of finished goods and component inventories [19] - Gross margin for agriculture was 20%, down 380 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to lower production volumes and unfavorable mix, partially offset by operational cost reductions [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In agriculture, net sales decreased 23% in Q1 2025, driven by lower shipments across all regions due to weak industry demand and network destocking [19] - Construction net sales for Q1 were $591 million, down 22% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 14.9%, down 250 basis points compared to Q1 2024 [21] - Financial Services segment reported net income of $90 million, with a year-over-year decrease mainly due to higher expected risk costs and taxes [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail demand was slow in Q1, with production hours down 26% compared to Q1 2024, agriculture down 27%, and construction down 19% [13] - The Turkish market showed continued softness, impacting joint venture results in the Other category [21] - Delinquencies increased, particularly in South America and growing in North America, aligning with expectations during a downturn [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, advancing technologies, and executing cost-saving initiatives while preparing for a new model year lineup [11][14] - The company aims to balance production levels with market demand, keeping production low to manage inventory effectively [12][14] - Strategic discussions are ongoing regarding potential partnerships in the construction business, but decisions are paused until market uncertainty settles [41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the soft industry demand and the need for a cautious approach to production and inventory management [12][16] - The company expects the second half of the year to show improved profitability, returning to double-digit margins [67] - Management is actively monitoring tariff discussions and their potential impacts on operations and pricing strategies [15][28] Other Important Information - The company announced leadership changes, including the appointment of Jim Nicholas as the new CFO [6][10] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong presence in North America while adapting to global trade changes [31][35] - The company is preparing for an Investor Day to provide more insights into its product roadmap and strategic initiatives [44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you quantify the EPS impact from tariffs? - Management indicated that all changes in guidance are due to tariff scenarios, with a midpoint estimate reflecting potential impacts [50][51] Question: What is the outlook for production costs related to quality? - Management expects quality-related costs to improve in the coming quarters as product quality has been enhanced [55][56] Question: Can you elaborate on price adjustments and procurement efforts? - Price adjustments are moderate and aligned with cost movements, and the company is actively working with suppliers to share tariff-related costs [61][63] Question: How should we think about ag segment margins as the year progresses? - The first quarter is typically low, with expectations for improved margins in the second half of the year [66][67] Question: What is the current state of dealer inventories? - The company aims for a significant inventory reduction, having achieved a $100 million reduction in Q1, and will continue to monitor production levels closely [81][82]

Canalys（现并入Omdia）最新研究显示，2025年第一季度，全球智能手机市场仅实现0.2%的增长，出货量达 2.969亿台。由于阶段性换机高峰进入尾声以及厂商寻求更健康的库存水位，全球智能手机市场增速已经连续 三个季度回落。三星凭借最新旗舰产品的发布以及性价比A系列新品巩固了第一的位置，出货量达6050万台。 苹果凭借其在亚太新兴市场以及美国市场的增长位列第二，出货量达5500万台，份额达19%。小米稳居第三， 出货量达4180万台，市场份额为14%，丰富的生态产品组合助力其在中国本土市场和海外新兴市场强化品牌优 势。vivo和OPPO位列第四及第五位，出货量分别为2290万台和2270万台。 Canalys（现并入Omdia）首席分析师朱嘉弢指出："各区域智能手机状况正变得复杂。在过去一年增长势头强 劲的印度、拉美和中东等区域出现了明显下滑，显现出大众产品区间换机需求的饱和。多数安卓品牌正在一季 度积极调整自身的库存水平以避免影响新机发布和渠道价格体系。欧洲市场在经历了短暂的复苏后再次出现下 跌，厂商受困于去年末的旗舰机高库存以及生态设计法案对未来中低端区间产品线的扰乱。然而仍然有区 域 市场呈现出 ...

Rocky Brands (RCKY) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 29, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company Participants Cody McAlester - VP - Investor RelationsJason Brooks - Chairman & Chief Executive OfficerThomas Robertson - COO & CFO Conference Call Participants Janine Stichter - Managing Director & Analyst - Consumer Retail & Lifestyle BrandsJonathan Komp - Senior Research Analyst Operator Ladies and gentlemen, greetings, and welcome to the Rocky Brands Inc. First Quarter Fiscal twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5][3] Core Views - Li Ning's adult revenue showed steady growth in Q1 2025, with e-commerce performance being particularly strong, while overall performance met expectations [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its children's clothing product structure and enhancing brand promotion, which is expected to drive steady growth in the children's clothing segment [2] - The company is managing inventory effectively, with an estimated inventory-to-sales ratio of around 5, indicating a healthy and controllable level [2] - For 2025, the company expects revenue to remain flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 17.5% [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 24.86 billion, 26.66 billion, and 28.81 billion respectively, with a PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [3] - Financial indicators for 2025 include: - Revenue: 28,919 million - Net profit: 2,486 million, a decline of 17.5% year-on-year - EPS: 0.96 - ROE: 9.1% [4][11] - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 0.8% for 2025, 6.5% for 2026, and 5.9% for 2027 [4][11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Iran's methanol shipments are low, and there is not enough time until the 05 contract. It is currently expected that inventory will decline to a seasonal low by the end of April. Be vigilant if Iran's subsequent shipments still fall short of expectations. Assuming normal imports and Shenghong's shutdown in May, inventory will accumulate. However, the low inventory at the end of April will still influence trading. If there is an unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract, the low - inventory situation will continue, providing a safety margin for long positions [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream inventory increased during the holiday, and coal - chemical inventory also rose. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 contract basis is +300 in North China and +300 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production increased month - on - month in February. Pay attention to US price quotes and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [1]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina and the mid - stream inventory increased during the holiday. In terms of valuation, the basis is +10, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 600, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The draw production ratio is neutral. There are few known maintenance plans in the future, and supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, with neutral raw material inventory and slightly high finished - product inventory. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is expected to face significant pressure. To relieve the pressure, there needs to be a significant increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH plants [1]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened to 05 - 230, and the factory - pickup basis is - 430. Downstream operations are seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventory has started to decline. With concentrated spring maintenance, the operating rate is expected to reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, pay attention to the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression. Export orders are fair. The macro - policies in March did not exceed expectations. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weakening, and it may be difficult for calcium carbide to expand profits as PVC plants undergo maintenance. The FOB price for caustic soda exports is 440. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 300. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2612 to 2505, and the daily change on April 7 was - 75. Other regional spot prices also showed varying degrees of decline. The CFR China price remained at 283 on April 7, with a daily change of 0. The import profit was 116, and the daily change was 0. The main - contract basis was 95, with a daily change of 10, and the MTO profit on the futures market was - 1031, with a daily change of 83 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene dropped from 855 to 845, with a daily change of - 10. The price of North China LL dropped from 7700 to 7550, with a daily change of - 150. The main - contract futures price dropped from 7669 to 7320, with a daily change of - 370. The basis was 100, with a daily change of 70. The two - oil inventory remained at 76, and the number of warehouse receipts was 450, with no daily change [1]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Shandong propylene dropped from 6600 to 6600 (with a decline during the period), and the daily change on April 7 was - 150. The price of Northeast Asia propylene dropped from 800 to 790, with a daily change of - 10. The price of East China PP dropped from 7300 to 7255, with a daily change of - 80. The main - contract futures price dropped from 7313 to 7197, with a daily change of - 151. The basis was 30, with a daily change of 50. The two - oil inventory remained at 76, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1950, with no daily change [1]. PVC - **Price Data**: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2700, and the price of Shandong caustic soda dropped from 897 to 856, with a daily change of - 20. The price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped from 4980 to 4900, with a daily change of - 110. The basis of high - end deliverable products was - 120, with a daily change of 40 [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][40]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 7.1% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 14.626 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.137 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.4% increase [1][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue increase of 9.8% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 32.1% [2][4]. - The children's clothing segment performed particularly well, with revenue of 10.268 billion yuan, a 9.6% increase, and a gross margin improvement [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 14.626 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.137 billion yuan and a gross margin of 43.8% [1][5]. - The fourth quarter revenue was 5.227 billion yuan, with a net profit of 382 million yuan, marking significant growth compared to the previous year [2][5]. - The company maintained a healthy inventory turnover, reducing turnover days by 19 days to 140 days [1][4]. Revenue Breakdown - By category, children's clothing accounted for 70.2% of total revenue, while casual wear contributed 41.90 billion yuan [3][4]. - Online sales reached 6.672 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% increase, while direct sales and franchise channels also showed positive growth [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its store network, with expectations for revenue growth to remain strong in 2025 [4][36]. - The estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.213 billion yuan, 1.295 billion yuan, and 1.385 billion yuan, respectively, indicating steady growth [4][5]. - The reasonable valuation range for the company has been adjusted to 7.2-7.7 yuan, reflecting an increase in valuation levels due to favorable consumption policies [4][5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total consolidated net sales in Q4 2024 were $352.8 million, an increase of 6.1% compared to $332.5 million in the same quarter last year [41] - Gross margin increased by 120 basis points to 28.9% in Q4 2024, compared to 27.7% in the same quarter last year [42] - Net loss in Q4 2024 was $0.1 million, compared to net income of $4.1 million in the same quarter last year [44] - Adjusted EBITDA increased to $40.4 million for Q4 2024, compared to $38.8 million in the same quarter last year [45] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Powered Vehicle Group (PVG), net sales were $116 million, slightly down from $118 million in the prior year but up 5% sequentially [16] - In the Aftermarket Applications Group (AAG), net sales were $112 million, down from $121 million in the prior year quarter but up 11% sequentially [22] - In the Sports Segment Group (SSG), net sales were $125 million compared to $93 million last year, reflecting a 41.5% increase from a full quarter of Marucci [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive sector continues to face headwinds from ongoing OEM production issues, with expectations for flat-to-down, low single-digit retail sales in 2025 [19] - The bike business is experiencing varied recovery rates across different geographies, with a cautious outlook for 2025 [30] - The European market showed strength in early 2024, but purchasing habits weakened in Q4 due to inventory concerns [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence and strategic positioning across segments, with a comprehensive cost reduction program aimed at improving margins [56][58] - The company is diversifying across segments, products, markets, and geographies, with a focus on product development initiatives to create new customer engagements [15] - The company is strategically repositioning its business to operate more efficiently, with a goal to restore best-in-class EBITDA margins as market conditions normalize [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects continued market pressures in 2025 but remains committed to operational efficiency and cost management to protect margins [21] - The company anticipates net sales for fiscal year 2025 in the range of $1.385 billion to $1.485 billion, with adjusted earnings per diluted share between $1.60 and $2.60 [52] - Management acknowledges the complexity of the regulatory environment, including tariffs, and is actively analyzing potential impacts [37][38] Other Important Information - The company has identified $25 million in savings across COGS and SG&A as part of its cost optimization plan [13] - The company is expanding its product portfolio, including the launch of the AGwagon, designed for agricultural use [26] - The company is focused on debt paydown as a priority for capital allocation, having paid down $63 million in debt during Q4 [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Taiwan facilities consolidation and capacity - Capacity in Taiwan is in line with pre-COVID levels, with increased efficiency within the same footprint [62] Question: Update on the upfitting business and dealership dialogue - The company is cultivating strong relationships with dealers and repositioning inventory effectively [66] Question: Insights on the bike business and revenue expectations - The company is being conservative in its revenue expectations for the bike business, despite positive signals [72] Question: Impact of the new MLB partnership on Marucci - Growth from the MLB partnership is expected to materialize in Q2 and Q3, with ongoing preparations [76] Question: Conversations with OEM partners regarding tariffs - The company feels relatively insulated from tariff impacts due to its focus on premium products and U.S.-produced chassis [83]