[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 双降之后，谁在买入短债？ ——债市机构行为周报（5 月第 2 周） 报告日期： 2025-05-10 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 短端下行 5bp，详细拆解一下买盘 本周双降落地之后，中短端受利好出现明显下行，1Y 国债降至 1.40%， 而长端则在"买入预期、卖出现实"的博弈下表现偏震荡，利率曲线小 幅走陡，而周五尾盘央行货币政策执行报告中提及重启国债二级买卖， 利率由升转降，复盘本周，谁在买入短债？ 先看利率债的交易情况，本周对于国债而言，农商行与外资是短债的主 要推动力量，周度净买入 1Y 以下国债超 100 亿元，农商行本周采取哑 铃型配置，在买入短债的同时也增配 30Y 国债；对于政金债而言，本周 ...

广发证券资本杠杆率最低 核心净资本增速赶不上扩表 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：IPO再融资组/郑权 近期，42家纯证券业务A股上市券商年报披露完毕。 42家券商中，中信证券2024年的净资本（母公司报表口径，下同）最高，为1425亿元；净资本最低的是华林证券，金额仅48.74亿元。2024年净资本增加最 多的是中国银河，净资本增加109.9亿元；增幅最高的是信达证券（41.94%）；净资本减少最多的是国信证券，减少78.63亿元；减幅比例最大的也是国信证 券，减幅为9.57%。 | | | 42家上市券商净资 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 浄资本 2022年报 | 浄资本 2023年报 | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 母公司报表 | 母公司报表 | | | | [单位] 亿元 | [单位] 亿元 | | 002736.SZ | 国信证券 | 794.35 | 821.40 | | 601162.SH | 天风证券 | 152.74 | 165.47 | | 002500.SZ | 山 ...

2025年4月 彭博 2025年全新升级 彭博债券南向通双周报，推出 彭博债券月报 ， 旨在为市场参与者提供固 收市场热点、债券市场关键数据及图表和最值得关注的固收产品等实时市场热点内容，助您实时 获取市场热点动态，做出明智投资决策。 扫描二维码 立即订阅彭博债券月报 固收市场热点 美债期货波动非系统性平仓，而是互换利差的剧烈反应 4月以来，美国国债期货市场出现明显波动，尤其10年期合约短期内快速回调，各期限历史波动 率均在四月达到了高点，引发市场对基差交易是否正在被大幅平仓的担忧。 彭博债券月报 然而，从仓位与交易数据来看，基差交易是否正在被大量平仓并无充分依据。 基差交易是通过卖 空国债期货、买入现券并通过回购融资来套利两者价格差。通常这种结构在资金稳定、波动受控 的环境中被视为低风险策略。若该交易结构遭遇系统性解除，市场会出现以下迹象：期货强于现 券、大量回补空头、期货未平仓量大幅下滑。从实际表现来看，情况并非如此。2Y、5Y、10Y合 约未平仓量 仅下滑1%-5% ，与2020年疫情时的剧烈调整（15%-25%）还是有一定差距。 对冲基金押注监管将放松SLR ，以提升银行参与能力，缓解国债市场的结构性 ...

贝森特承认最近国债拍卖中主要交易商的参与率非常低，这可能表明存在监管问题限制了他们的资产负 债表参与拍卖的能力。因此，改革补充杠杆率(SLR)已成为包括美联储在内的三大银行监管机构的"高度 优先事项"。 同时，贝森特重申财政部拥有"非常强大的工具箱"来应对美国国债市场的任何动荡，美联储也具备类似 工具。他指出，尽管上个月市场波动性较高，但国债市场仍然运行"良好"。 美国财长贝森特暗示数字资产市场可能成为美债的重要买家，预计未来几年将带来高达2万亿美元的需 求。 美东时间周三，媒体报道称，美国财政部长贝森特在众议院金融服务委员会作证时，围绕加密货币监管 的讨论占据主导地位。贝森特表示数字资产是推动美元在全球使用的重要创新来源。他特别指出： 有预测认为，未来几年数字资产可能创造高达2万亿美元的美国国债需求。 华尔街见闻此前报道，截至去年底，摩根大通预计约有1140亿美元的美国国债被用作稳定币的储备，虽 然仅占流通总量的不足2%，但增长速度惊人。对于寻求支撑政府债务的贝森特来说，稳定币的快速增 长提供了一个解决美债需求不足问题的潜在途径。 然而，国会在加密监管上存在明显分歧。 媒体报道称周一，众议院共和党人提出了一 ...

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Jessica Hazel - VP, IRDenise Warren - Interim Chief Executive Officer and ChairmanDawn Kussow - Executive VP & CFOBen Hendrix - Vice PresidentChad White - Executive Vice President – General Counsel and SecretaryAndrew Mok - Director Conference Call Participants Brian Tanquilut - Equity Research Analyst - Healthcare ServicesTao Qiu - Equity Research AnalystJoanna Gajuk - Equity Research AnalystJoshua Raskin - Re ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported organic revenue growth of 10% and total revenue of $413.4 million for the first quarter [11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter rose 12% to $113.8 million compared to $101.7 million in the prior year period [11] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share grew by 16% [4] - Adjusted free cash flow was $26 million, up 6% from the prior year period [5][13] - GAAP net income for the first quarter was $24.9 million, or GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.20 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Insurance Advisory Solutions (IAS) experienced organic revenue growth of 3% [11] - Underwriting Capacity and Technology Solutions (UCTS) saw organic revenue growth accelerate to 32% compared to 21% in the prior year [7] - Main Street Insurance Solutions (MIS) delivered total organic revenue growth of 10% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company faced a negative 3.5% impact from rate and exposure changes on renewals, compared to a positive 4.5% benefit in the prior year [6][7] - Client retention improved year over year to approximately 92% [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to vertically integrate across the value chain and bring innovative third-party risk capital solutions to market [8] - The introduction of the Builder Reciprocal Insurance Exchange (BRI) is a significant milestone for growth in the builder channel [8] - The company remains confident in maintaining double-digit organic growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties [9][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience and durability of the business model amid macroeconomic uncertainty [9] - The company expects organic revenue growth in the IAS business to be in the mid to high single-digit range for the year, with overall double-digit growth anticipated [15][16] - Management noted that the Florida insurance market is healthier due to tort reforms, although the cost of risk is expected to grow over time [45][46] Other Important Information - The company was recently upgraded by S&P to a B rating, with a stable outlook from Moody's [15] - The transition to a fiduciary reporting model for cash and receivables aims to reduce volatility in cash flow from operations [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Organic revenue outlook for the second quarter - Management acknowledged that the IAS business is running below expectations due to project-based headwinds but remains confident in the underlying fundamentals [19][20] Question: Cash flow conversion rate - Management targets a free cash flow conversion rate of 50% against adjusted EBITDA for the year, with potential to reach 65% to 70% over time [25][26] Question: Project-based work in the second quarter - Management noted an increase in new project starts in May and a strong pipeline for the balance of the month [34] Question: Strong growth in UCTS segment - The growth was driven by strong performance in homeowners programs and the introduction of a multifamily captive [36] Question: Timing of headwinds from renewal - Management indicated that timing-related headwinds from project-based work are expected to improve in the second quarter [41] Question: Market conditions in Florida - Management stated that the Florida insurance market is healthier due to tort reforms, although the cost of risk is expected to increase over time [45][46] Question: Employee benefits business - Management noted that the cautious business outlook among clients has impacted the employee benefits segment, but they expect visibility to improve as the year progresses [65][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter sales were $284 million, down 17% year-over-year due to repositioning actions in Performance Chemicals and weak industrial demand [10] - Adjusted gross profit increased by 10% to $129 million, with gross margin improving over 1,000 basis points [10] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by $17 million, with margins improving from 21.9% to 32.1%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin improvement [11][12] - Free cash flow improved by $44 million year-over-year to $15 million, reflecting benefits from repositioning actions [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Performance Materials saw higher sales due to favorable regional and product mix, with EBITDA margins remaining near 54% [13][15] - Advanced Polymer Technologies (APT) experienced lower overall sales, but EBITDA increased by $3 million, with margins rising to 29.6% [19] - Performance Chemicals sales decreased by 35% primarily due to repositioning actions, but segment EBITDA showed year-over-year improvement of $10 million [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American auto production is expected to decline by approximately 10% year-over-year, impacting guidance for the Performance Materials segment [8][15] - Volume growth was observed in China due to government incentives driving higher vehicle sales, while North American volumes were down year-over-year [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined execution of its strategy to optimize the portfolio and drive business performance, aiming to create significant value for shareholders [8][24] - The strategic review of Industrial Specialties and the North Charleston refinery is progressing well, with expectations to communicate a path forward before the end of the year [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is actively monitoring developments related to tariffs and macro demand conditions, believing the direct impact on the business will be minimal [7][24] - Despite headwinds, the company is confident in its ability to deliver strong profitability in 2025 and beyond [8][24] Other Important Information - The company has introduced a new President for APT, who brings over 25 years of experience in transforming business profitability [20] - The average age of automobiles in the U.S. is at an all-time high, suggesting a future need for replacements [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing in Performance Materials business - Management indicated that they have a strong position and are seeing encouraging performance, with pricing being a lever they can pull if needed [29][30][32] Question: Update on strategic review of Industrial Specialties - The process is progressing well with a broad degree of interest, and management is being deliberate in their approach [34][36] Question: Strategic and operational priorities in a volatile environment - The focus remains on disciplined execution, optimizing business performance, and reducing leverage [40][41] Question: Cash flow forecast amidst potential auto production decline - Management is confident in free cash flow generation even in a declining sales environment due to effective working capital management [43][44] Question: Impact of EV slowdown on forecasts - While EVs are slowing down, management remains optimistic about the adoption of new technologies and their investment in Nexeon [47][48][50] Question: Filtration market capacity for potential volume shifts - The filtration market is sizable and can absorb underutilized capacity, although it is a lower margin market compared to auto [53][54] Question: Long-term leverage goals - The long-term target for leverage remains between 2 to 2.5 times [58]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 跨月资金利率整体平稳——流动性和机构行 为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月 27 日-4 月 30 日，央行净投放资金，跨月资金利率整体平稳。2025 年 4 月 28 日 -5 月 4 日，政府债净融资规模提升；同业存单转为净偿还，同业存单到期收益率多数下行；银 行间债券市场杠杆率有所提升，国有大行及政策行净融出规模延续修复趋势。2025 年 5 月 5 日 -5 月 11 日政府债预计净偿还 1123 亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 跨月资金利率整体平稳 2] ——流动性和机构行为 周度观察 [Table_Summary2] 资金面 央行净投放资金。2025 年 4 月 27 日-4 月 30 日，央行逆回购投放 12403 亿元、回笼 5045 亿 ...

摘要本周国际黄金走势可谓是大起大落，日内的交易多次出现以近100美元的幅度在波动，市场在贸易 紧张的局势下，避险情绪高涨，将金价一度推至3500上方。截止周五（4月25日）金价收盘报3318.62美 元/盎司，跌幅0.93%。 本周国际黄金走势可谓是大起大落，日内的交易多次出现以近100美元的幅度在波动，市场在贸易紧张 的局势下，避险情绪高涨，将金价一度推至3500上方。截止周五（4月25日）金价收盘报3318.62美元/ 盎司，跌幅0.93%。 本周一，因特朗普抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，引发市场对美元资产的抛售，美元一度下挫至2022年4月8日 以来的新低至97.92附近，但随着特朗普言论的再三转变，美元重回99上方，但在100关口，压力较大， 本周始终未能突破100关口，尽管美联储警告称，即使在4月遭抛售之后，资产估值仍然相对较高，住宅 房地产价格也处于高位。 美联储警告称，对冲基金的杠杆率（尤其是大机构的杠杆率）已达到或接近历史高位，但联储认为，随 着基金平仓，杠杆率在4月初有所下降。 但美联储表示，商业房地产价格，一个在新冠疫情后长期令人担忧的问题，已显示出企稳的迹象。尽管 4月初股市和美债市场流动性低， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In March 2025, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than the historical average. The total bond custody scale of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House increased. Different institutions had different investment preferences for various bond types, with commercial banks significantly increasing their allocation of interest - rate bonds and broad - based funds increasing their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bank - Inter Leverage Ratio: Up Month - on - Month, Lower than the Same Period in Previous Years At the end of March, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.03%, up 0.8 pct from 106.23% at the end of the previous month, and slightly lower than the historical average [1][12]. 3.2 Custody Data Overview In March 2025, the total bond custody scale of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 166.22 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 2655.6 billion yuan. CCDC's custody scale increased by 1308.9 billion yuan, and Shanghai Clearing House's increased by 1346.7 billion yuan. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, medium - term notes, and inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed to the increase, while enterprise bonds, short - term financing bonds, and private placement notes contributed to the decrease [2][15]. 3.3 By Bond Type: Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit Increased, Credit Bonds Had Net Repayment - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In March 2025, the total custody scale of major interest - rate bonds was 109.14 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1584.1 billion yuan. Commercial banks and broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 814.8 billion yuan and 401.4 billion yuan respectively. For treasury bonds, commercial banks were the main buyers; for policy - bank bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for local government bonds, commercial banks and broad - based funds increased their holdings [3][17][48]. - **Credit Bonds**: The total custody scale of major credit bonds was 15.54 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and commercial banks increased their holdings. For enterprise bonds, all institutions reduced their holdings; for medium - term notes, commercial banks were the main buyers; for short - term financing bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for ultra - short - term financing bonds, multiple institutions reduced their holdings [3][29][48]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit**: The custody scale was 21.18 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1115 billion yuan. Broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 1306.6 billion yuan, while commercial banks were the main sellers, reducing their holdings by 264.8 billion yuan [3][45][48]. 3.4 By Institution: Commercial Banks Significantly Increased Allocation of Interest - rate Bonds, Broad - based Funds Increased Allocation of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Commercial Banks**: The custody scale of major bonds was 80.04 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 561.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 814.8 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 264.8 billion yuan. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Broad - based Funds**: The custody scale of major bonds was 35.53 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1729.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 401.4 billion yuan, 21.8 billion yuan, and 1306.6 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of local government bonds, treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes and short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.20 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 146.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 3.2 billion yuan, 141.1 billion yuan, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly increased their allocation of medium - term notes, short - term financing bonds, and ultra - short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Insurance Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.03 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 93.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 93.1 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of credit bonds by 1 billion yuan. They mainly increased their allocation of local government bonds and treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly reduced their allocation of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Securities Companies**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2.76 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 118.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 88.7 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and increased their allocation of medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Credit Unions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 1.89 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 14.8 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 21.6 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 0.63 billion yuan and 35.8 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds [5][54].