报告日期：2025 年 12 月 18 日 申银万国期货研究所 品种观点 | | 偏空(可能性) | 偏多(可能性) | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指(IH) | | V | | 股指(IF) | | V | | 股指(IC) | | 1 | | 股指(IM) | | V | | 国债(TS) | | V | | 原油 | V | | | 曲壁 | V | | | 橡胶 | | √ | | 螺纹 | | V | | 热卷 | | V | | 铁矿 | | 1 | | 黄金 | | V | | 白银 | | 1 | | 铜 | | 1 | | 铝 | | > | | 碳酸锂 | | V | | 棉花 | | V | | 白糖 | V | | | 苹果 | V | | | 王米 | | √ | | 集运欧线 | V | | | | 特别提示:表格内容仅为可能性判断,并非确定性判断。请仔细阅读屋页"免责声明"内容。 | | 一、当日主要新闻关注 首席点评： 白银再创新高 全球白银市场正迎来历史性时刻，短短数周内开启连续刷新纪录的上涨行情。12 月 17 日，现货白银价格接连突破 65 美元/盎司 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend with a structural supply - demand gap in 2026, and the idea is to buy on dips, with a price range of 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars in December [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2]. - Zinc prices may not fall deeply due to a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - sided basis in the short term, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [8]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are generally weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies considering the Indonesian policy's price - supporting motivation [12]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [16]. - Tin prices have shown marginal weakening signs in the short term, with potential large fluctuations in case of a macro - level systemic correction. It can be a long - term long - allocation in the first half of 2026, but attention should be paid to correction risks [19]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger willingness to hold goods [24]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell on Friday night. Global inventory distribution is uneven, and low - inventory areas in the US may face more pressure. In China, there is a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival [1]. - **Outlook**: With the continuous loose overseas liquidity, the idea is to buy on dips, and the price in December is expected to be in the range of 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 120 yuan. The domestic alumina price decreased by 2 yuan, and the import price remained unchanged. The LME aluminum inventory was stable, and the cancelled warrants increased by 6,675 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The expectation of interest rate cuts affected the market, and terminal demand was lower than expected. Aluminum prices showed two significant corrections this week. Short - term apparent demand is good, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week. The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium decreased from 163 US dollars to 90.6 US dollars. The domestic zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 2,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC is declining rapidly. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was put into production, and multiple smelters will have maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average, but US zinc imports have increased recently [5]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see on a single - sided basis in the short term. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged. The Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 250 yuan, and the Jinchuan premium increased by 650 yuan. The domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has a price - supporting motivation [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The price of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill's production is at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a price - supporting motivation [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [12]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME lead inventory decreased by 2,875, and the cancelled warrants decreased by 1,375 [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The primary lead production is at a high level, and the secondary lead production has recovered. The battery demand is expected to weaken, but downstream restocking provides support [16]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [16]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The domestic inventory increased by about 600 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 375 tons [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The tin ore processing fee is at a low level. Overseas production recovery is slow, but high prices stimulate inventory exports. Demand is mainly rigid, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened [19]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is a risk of excessive supply growth, and the fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. In the medium - to - long term, demand determines the upside space, but attention should be paid to correction risks in 2026 [19]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of 421 - grade Yunnan, Sichuan, 553 - grade East China, and Tianjin decreased by 105 yuan, and the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and some silicon plants in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang will have periodic maintenance. The supply and demand in December are expected to be balanced [22]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long term [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 1,200 yuan and 1,100 yuan respectively. The basis of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 6,820 yuan and increased by 1,200 yuan respectively. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 350 [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: Ningde's resumption of production is less than expected. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the upstream inventory is being depleted. Downstream demand is strong at low prices but weakens at high prices [24]. - **Outlook**: The short - term pattern is one of strong supply and demand. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger willingness to hold goods [24].

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高，美联 储降息预期上行。"家里有矿，年内涨超有色"的矿业ETF（561330）涨超2%，截至写稿年内涨幅近90%。 就业数据提振降息预期，提振矿业产业链 美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，好于预期，经济学家此前预计非农将增加4.5万人。而10月为减少10.5万人。9月 失业率为4.4%，11月升至4.6%，高于预期的4.5%。由于此前政府停摆导致无法事后补采数据，BLS未能发布10月失业率。 数据来源：ifind，银河证券 高盛预计美联储明年可能会比市场此前假设的更加愿意进一步降息。高盛全球银行与市场部首席策略官兼金融风险主管Josh Schiffrin表示，接下来的几份就 业报告将是决定美联储是否恢复宽松政策的关键因素，市场将特别关注失业率，而不是总体非农就业人数的增长。 展望未来，高盛预计宽松周期将延伸至2026年，联邦基金目标利率可能降至3%或更低。这一展望反映了其观点：通胀将继续温和，同时劳动力市场闲置度 增加，从而为美 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December 2025, due to a structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and uneven global inventory distribution [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth, as the easing of interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand have affected the market [2] - Zinc prices are difficult to fall deeply at the end of the year due to a potential supply reduction, but the domestic fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak with supply decline, weak demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak with high production, weak demand, and high inventory. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, with the supply - demand contradiction relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, but there is still a risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] - Tin prices may fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction, and there is a risk of supply over - release and downstream negative feedback. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term, as the supply and demand are balanced in December 2025 and there is still high over - capacity [18] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell. The inventory is unevenly distributed globally, and there is a supply - demand gap in 2026. Domestic inventory may accumulate slightly until the Spring Festival [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, affected by interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand. The inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Strategy**: Volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME 0 - 3M premium declined. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory increased [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and some smelters are under maintenance. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fell this week. The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased continuously at home and abroad [9] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices decreased slightly this week. The production remained high, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remained high [12] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The supply - demand contradiction was relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, and the downstream replenishment provided support [13] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, and beware of the risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The supply may increase marginally under high prices, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs with weak downstream orders [15] - **Strategy**: May fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, and the warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are balanced in December 2025, and there is still high over - capacity [18] - **Strategy**: Oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices rose slightly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, but the actual trading volume is light [20] - **Strategy**: The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Gold price is approaching its previous high of $4381 as the non-farm payroll data is imminent. The short-term focus of the gold price is on the marginal changes in the non-farm payroll data, the US dollar, and interest rates, while it still has upward momentum in the medium term [1]. - The short-term pricing of gold focuses on the marginal changes in the non-farm payroll data, the US dollar, and interest rates, and the medium-term logic remains bullish. If the non-farm payroll data continues to confirm the weakening of the labor market, the upward space for the gold price is expected to open up again; if the data is temporarily strong, the gold price may fluctuate at a high level, but the callback space is expected to be limited. The medium-term direction of silver is still the same as that of gold, but it is more sensitive to the US dollar rebound and changes in risk appetite. It is expected to show high-level fluctuations and increased volatility in the short term, and may have a repair demand relative to gold [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Ukrainian President Zelensky held a five-hour meeting with a US envoy in Berlin on Sunday to seek an end to the war with Russia and proposed the goal of giving up joining NATO. The negotiations are expected to continue on Monday [2]. - US President Trump said he prefers former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed next year [2]. - A closely watched survey released by the Bank of Japan on Monday showed that the business sentiment index of large Japanese manufacturers reached a four-year high in the three months ended December, indicating that the Japanese economy has withstood the impact of US tariff hikes [2]. Price Logic - Gold: After the FOMC cut interest rates as expected in December, the overall tone of the meeting was dovish. The growth outlook was revised upward, the inflation path was revised downward, and sufficient reserves were maintained through short-term Treasury bond purchases. The liquidity environment still supports gold. Powell emphasized the continuous weakening of employment, so the market's expectation of subsequent easing has not completely subsided. At the same time, the "explicit + implicit" divergence within the Fed has increased, and the uncertainty of the Fed's independence has introduced a structural risk premium into the US dollar credit pricing [3]. - Silver: On the premise that the expectation of loose liquidity has not been falsified, the medium-term direction is still the same as that of gold. However, due to the large previous increase and crowded positions, it is more sensitive to the US dollar rebound and changes in risk appetite. The spot structure is still tight, but it is difficult to drive a trend market alone. In the short term, it mainly shows high-level fluctuations and increased volatility, and may have a repair demand relative to gold [3]. Outlook - In the short term, the focus range for London gold is [4150, 4500] US dollars per ounce, and for London silver is [55, 65] US dollars per ounce [3]. Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: Not provided with specific data - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2258.84, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2585.31, unchanged; the industrial products index is 2184.69, up 0.24%; the PPI commodity index is 1354.37, down 0.35% [46]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on December 15, 2025, is 3669.23, up 0.69% today, up 4.97% in the past 5 days, up 10.87% in the past month, and up 65.85% since the beginning of the year [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased volatility in copper and aluminum prices, with a focus on the continuation of steel policies [1]. - It emphasizes the low inventory levels of copper, which may lead to sustained high volatility in prices [6]. - The macroeconomic environment is supportive for copper demand, driven by domestic market strength [6]. - For aluminum, the report notes a mixed macro outlook and stresses the importance of fundamental support for prices [6]. - The report discusses the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices, indicating a slight recovery in investment demand [6]. - It also mentions the rising prices of tungsten and the weak supply-demand dynamics in the rare earth market [6]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper and SHFE copper prices were reported at 11,816 and 94,080 USD/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1.5% and 1.4% [6]. - The copper concentrate treatment charge was reported at -43.0 USD/dry ton, indicating tight supply [6]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 64.54%, down 1.87 percentage points week-on-week [6]. Aluminum - LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices were reported at 2,846 and 22,170 USD/ton respectively, with weekly decreases of 0.7% and 0.8% [6]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was 61.8%, reflecting a slight decline [6]. - Social inventory levels for aluminum ingots and rods showed a decrease, indicating some demand resilience [6]. Gold - SHFE gold and COMEX gold prices were reported at 970.7 CNY/gram and 4,329.8 USD/ounce, with weekly increases of 1.0% and 2.4% [6]. - The SPDR Gold ETF's net holdings increased by 2.9 tons, suggesting a slight recovery in investment preference for gold [6]. Small Metals - Tungsten prices rose to 373,000 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.0% [6]. - Rare earth prices showed a decline, with market supply growth slowing down [6]. - Antimony prices decreased to 172,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.3% [6]. Steel - SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices were reported at 3,060 and 3,232 CNY/ton respectively, with weekly declines of 3.1% and 2.7% [7]. - The total inventory of steel products decreased by 33.5% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [7]. - Recent policies have aimed at normalizing steel exports, which may reshape supply-demand dynamics [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resources, such as Zijin Mining and China Nonferrous Mining [10]. - For gold, it recommends companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold [10]. - In the aluminum sector, it highlights companies like Shenhuo and China Aluminum [10]. - For small metals, it points to rare earth companies and tungsten producers [10]. - In the steel sector, it emphasizes companies with strong product structures and environmental capabilities [10].

宏观不确定性提升 金银波动放大 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 了无差别的普跌。 期货盘面：周内，黄金总体持稳并小幅上破，白银连续刷新历史高点但在周五晚间回落。其中，伦敦金震荡走强，一度触及4353美元关口， 最终收于4299美元/盎司，周涨幅2.41%。伦敦银将新高刷至64.66美元，尽管周五因获利了结有所回调，但全周仍涨6.21% 。国内沪金主力 合约收报970.66元/克，周涨幅1%，沪银主力合约创新高至15192元/千克，周涨幅8.8% 。 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 宏观不确定性提升 金银波动放大 ◼【综合分析】 美国宏观面：上周美国宏观面主要围绕美联储12月议息会议展开，市场经历了从预期消化到落 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market is significantly influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with the Federal Reserve's easing policies being a key driver. Despite uncertainties in future interest rate cuts, a liquidity-rich environment is expected to support rising commodity prices, similar to the market performance from 2019 to 2021 [1][5] - Concerns regarding AI investments and interest rate hikes in Japan have emerged, but liquidity easing reduces de-leveraging risks, making the likelihood of a bubble burst low in the short term. If Japan's interest rates exceed expectations, it may create downward pressure, but any pullback could present a good investment opportunity due to supply-demand imbalances and demand recovery anticipated by 2026 [1][6] Precious Metals Market - Gold is not advisable to short due to geopolitical factors, weakening of the dollar credit system, and increased central bank purchases. Historically, gold tends to experience two phases of price increases during easing cycles, and it is expected to rise post-RMP implementation [1][7] - Silver may face short-term pullback pressure but is expected to maintain a long-term upward cycle due to supply shortages and its industrial properties. The market has shown a consistent shortfall in silver supply over the past few years [1][8] Price Projections - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 by 2026, benefiting from liquidity easing and rising inflation. Companies like Lingbao Gold, through acquisitions, are expected to see their valuations rise to 15-20 times [1][9] - The copper market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with low inventories. High copper prices are suppressing demand, but liquidity easing is expected to mitigate negative impacts, making any price corrections a good buying opportunity. The copper price is projected to be between $11,000 and $12,000 in the first half of 2026, with many A-share and H-share companies showing attractive valuations [2][11] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is currently in a favorable supply-demand balance, with profit margins exceeding 5,500 yuan per ton. The U.S. interest rate cuts are expected to lower dividend yield requirements, making aluminum an attractive investment due to its cyclical and dividend growth attributes [4][12] Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a slight shortage in 2025, with a projected small surplus in 2026. The price sensitivity is high, and rapid price increases may stimulate supply. The overall economic environment and liquidity easing may push lithium prices higher in the first half of 2026 [4][14] Minor Metals: Tungsten and Cobalt - Tungsten and cobalt are expected to remain in a state of continuous shortage, with prices likely to trend upwards. Tungsten's significance in technology and military applications makes it less likely to drop to previous low levels, while cobalt's price is influenced by export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [15] Copper and Aluminum Foil Processing Fees - Recent surveys indicate that processing fees for copper and aluminum foils in lithium battery materials have bottomed out and are beginning to recover. This sector is highlighted as an important area for investors, with overall supply-demand dynamics remaining balanced [16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the non-ferrous metals industry and its various segments.