Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is generally oscillating with a strengthening bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Directory Market Price - This week, the US soybean price first declined and then rose. The price dropped at the beginning of the week due to good weather in the US soybean - growing areas, but rallied on Friday night as all contracts of US soybean oil hit the daily limit on the bio - fuel blending side [8] - This week, the US soybean meal price continued to fall. After the significant positive news on the bio - fuel blending side of US soybean oil on Friday, the price of US soybean meal was further pressured [11] - Policy support led to a significant increase in the price of US soybean oil. The Trump administration proposed allowing refiners to blend more bio - fuels into gasoline and diesel next year, causing the price of soybean oil, the main raw material for biodiesel, to rise by 6.2%, the largest increase since January 10. If the policy is fully implemented, it is expected to drive the price of US soybean oil up to around 60 cents per pound [14] - Last week, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports increased, and the purchase price at farms (in Iowa) also rose. The spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa remained basically stable. In Brazil, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso state and the overall Brazilian spot price were basically stable [16][18][20] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing areas has improved, with the drought rate at 39% this week compared to 45% last week. The temperature in US soybean - growing areas is normal, and the forecast for the next two weeks indicates good precipitation in the main US soybean - growing areas, with no drought threat [27][30][32] - Brazil has entered the dry season, with less precipitation in most areas. In Argentina, the central and northern production areas have more precipitation, and the temperature is basically normal [34][36] - The US soybean planting progress is 90%, up from 84% last week, approaching the end. The US corn planting progress is 97%, up from 93% last week, and the planting work is basically completed [39][41] Demand Factors - As of June 6, the US soybean crushing profit was $1.49 per bushel, down from $1.9 last week [44] - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 453,300 tons, up from 308,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 547,000 tons, up from 268,300 tons last week. The weekly net sales volume was 61,300 tons, down from 194,300 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 58,000 tons, up from 3,500 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [46][48][50][52][54] Other Factors - The latest value of ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.184, indicating a basically neutral state [57] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The US soybean planting cost has decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian soybean cost has also decreased year - on - year [59][63][64] - In terms of CFTC positions, the net long position of soybeans is 54,800 lots, up from 35,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil is 33,900 lots, down from 34,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal is 75,800 lots, down from 86,400 lots last week [65][67][69]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamental of palm oil is weakening marginally, lacking a strong upward drive. The market is expected to enter a bottom - building phase in the next one to two months with a possible downward trend, but the decline may be affected by various factors [48]. - In the long - term, the overall supply of palm oil is not abundant. If the B40 biodiesel policy is implemented smoothly and there are no significant macro - level negative factors, palm oil should not be overly underestimated, and it is expected to fluctuate within a large range [48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - Recent palm oil futures have increased in intraday volatility, affected by factors such as the U.S. biodiesel policy, India's tax cuts, and macro - external factors. The situation in palm oil - producing areas is crucial for the supply - demand pattern and price trends [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation was slightly lower than expected, with production increasing by 5.05% to 177 million tons, an export increase to 139 million tons, and apparent consumption at 33 million tons. In June, production may decrease by 4% to about 170 million tons, and from June to August, the average monthly production is expected to be around 179 million tons. The CPO spot price is expected to decline [6][7]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: From January to April, cumulative exports were 428 million tons, a 13% year - on - year decrease. In May, exports exceeded expectations, and India's tax cuts may lead to a short - term improvement, but overall annual exports may be weak [20]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Production**: In March, production increased by 16% to 481 million tons, exports increased to 288 million tons, and inventory decreased to 204 million tons. In Q2, production is expected to be normal but without the high growth rate of March [28][29]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Exports and Biodiesel**: In April, exports were weak. Indonesia raised the Levy tax, but also lowered the CPO reference price. Biodiesel implementation is not pessimistic, with a target completion rate of over 80% and a possible remaining balance in the biodiesel fund by the end of the year [35][38]. 3.3 Conclusion - In the short - term, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June may be around 200 million tons, similar to May. As the peak production season approaches, production and inventory will increase, and palm oil prices may decline. - In the long - term, the supply of palm oil is not overly abundant, and if the B40 biodiesel policy is implemented smoothly and there are no major macro - level negative factors, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range [48].

李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9427 | 24 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2618 | 14 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 167 | -2 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 266 | 9 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 327483 | -2907 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 578743 | -23502 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 45807 | 4530 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -3648 | 8178 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 600 | -412 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 27615 | -394 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 5 月 26 日 增库周期过程 棕榈油延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨13收于3825元/吨，涨幅0.34%； 棕榈油09合约涨22收于8006元/吨，涨幅0.28%；豆油09合 约涨20收于7774元/吨，涨幅0.26%；菜油09合约涨114收 于9391元/吨，涨幅1.23%；CBOT美豆油主连涨0.3收于 49.22美分/ ...

期货热点追踪 生柴政策利空突袭！美豆油跳水拖累棕榈油走低，这次棕榈油期货会跌到哪里？ 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to close at 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%; the September bean meal contract remained flat; the South China bean meal spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%; the September rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%; and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 60 to 2370 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.47% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans first rose and then fell. The May USDA report was bullish, and the extension of the clean fuel tax credit boosted prices. However, the expected U.S. biodiesel mandatory blending target was much lower than expected, and the sharp decline in U.S. soybean oil drove soybeans down. The U.S. soybean sowing maintained a relatively fast pace, and the weather conditions were good. The oil mill operating rate rebounded, the expected supply of bean meal increased, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. In the weak reality pattern, the Dalian bean meal fluctuated weakly [4][7]. - The weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, and the sowing season may proceed smoothly. Recently, the U.S. biodiesel policy has high uncertainty, which intensifies the market volatility. There is no theme to drive the market, and U.S. soybeans are likely to fluctuate. In China, the oil mill operating rate has rebounded, the supply is gradually recovering, the inventories of oil mills and feed enterprises have both increased, the trading demand declined last week, and the spot price is still under pressure. Since the rapeseed meal inventory is still available, as the bean meal spot price falls, the substitution demand increases, and rapeseed meal is still under short - term pressure. Overall, both bean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate weakly [4][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased by 1 to 434 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.23%, and that of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased by 4 to 457 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.88%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased by 8.08 to 83.74 yuan per ton. The DCE bean meal contract remained flat at 2899 yuan per ton. The CZCE rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%. The bean - rapeseed meal price difference increased by 38 to 386 yuan per ton. The East China spot price dropped 200 to 3000 yuan per ton, a decline of 6.25%, and the South China spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%. The South China spot - futures price difference dropped 80 to 161 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The May USDA report showed that in the 2024/2025 season, U.S. soybean export demand was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 350 million bushels. For the 2025/2026 new - season U.S. soybean balance sheet, the yield per acre was 52.5 bushels, the output was 4.34 billion bushels, which was in line with expectations. In terms of demand, the crushing demand increased to 2.49 billion bushels, the export demand decreased to 1.815 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 295 million bushels. The report was generally bullish [8]. - As of the week of May 11, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, the previous week's 30%, and last year's 34%, with a five - year average of 37%. The emergence rate was 17%, compared with 7% in the previous week, 15% last year, and a five - year average of 11%. As of the week of May 6, about 15% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than last year's 11%. The weather forecast shows that the northern U.S. soybean - producing areas may have more precipitation, which may slow down the sowing progress, but the weather conditions in other areas are good, which is conducive to maintaining a relatively fast sowing pace [8]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market season increased by 282,000 tons to 377,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48 million tons, with a sales progress of 95.3%, higher than last year's 92.1%. China did not purchase U.S. soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current season was 22.48 million tons [9]. - The NOPA crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.412 billion pounds and the March 2025 level of 1.498 billion pounds. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in April 2025 was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 184.642 million bushels and lower than the March 2025 level of 194.551 million bushels [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was 1.78 dollars per bushel, up from 1.75 dollars per bushel the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 47.98 cents per pound, down from 49.03 cents per pound the previous week. The price of 48% protein bean meal in Illinois soybean processing plants was 290.38 dollars per short - ton, up from 287.08 dollars per short - ton the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.63 dollars per bushel, down from 10.71 dollars per bushel the previous week [10]. - Conab data showed that as of the week of May 10, 2025, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 98.5%, higher than the previous week's 97.7%, last year's 95.6%, and the five - year average of 97.6%. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in May were expected to reach 14.27 million tons, higher than last year's 13.47 million tons [10]. - The Buenos Aires Exchange reported that the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 64.9%, up from 44.9% the previous week, and the harvesting work accelerated. In the next 15 days, the weather in the producing areas will be relatively dry, which is conducive to the progress of harvesting [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.3491 million tons, an increase of 602,700 tons from the previous week and 1.1634 million tons from the same period last year. The bean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 458,000 tons from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 4.7368 million tons, an increase of 436,000 tons from the previous week and 221,900 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 6.234 million tons, an increase of 702,000 tons from the previous week and 620,200 tons from the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 78,100 tons, including 40,600 tons of spot trading and 37,500 tons of forward trading. The previous week's daily average total trading volume was 264,600 tons. The daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 157,000 tons, up from 151,000 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9055 million tons, up from 1.846 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 5.14 days, up from 4.45 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat (Secex) data showed that Brazil exported 4,766,710.61 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of May, with a daily average export volume of 794,451.77 tons, a 24% increase compared with the daily average export volume of 639,843.92 tons in May last year. The total export volume in May last year was 13,436,722.31 tons [13]. - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from May 5 - 9 was 612.80 reais per ton, down from 623.09 reais per ton the previous week. The bean meal price in that week was 1690.10 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5735.94 reais per ton [13]. - The U.S. House of Representatives Tax Committee proposed to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy to December 31, 2031, and cancel the impact of indirect land - use change (ILUC) on tax - credit assessment, which may significantly reduce the compliance costs of biofuel producers. Biodiesel producers using soybean oil as raw materials are expected to be the main beneficiaries [13]. - If the U.S. and China fail to reach a new trade agreement, U.S. soybean exports may decline by 20%, and the price will plummet. The U.S. soybean export volume may drop from the initial 1.865 billion bushels to 1.5 billion bushels, and the farm price may drop to 9.10 dollars per bushel in the 2025/2026 season, compared with the USDA's forecast of 10.25 dollars per bushel [14]. - CONAB's May forecast data showed that the expected output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 168.3418 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6205 million tons (14%) and a month - on - month increase of 472,000 tons (0.3%). The expected sowing area was 47.6127 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.4631 million hectares (3.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 97,000 hectares (0.2%). The expected yield per hectare was 3.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 334.7 kilograms (10.5%) and a month - on - month increase of 2.7 kilograms (0.1%) [15]. - A commodity research report showed that Australia's rapeseed output in the 2025/2026 season was expected to be 6.2 million tons, in line with the USDA's monthly supply - and - demand report. The forecast range was between 5.7 - 6.3 million tons. Most areas in Australia were dry in the past two weeks. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in New South Wales are expected to receive above - average rainfall, while other areas in Australia will remain dry until the end of the month. The seasonal weather model shows that Australia's rainfall and temperature in June will be normal, which may relieve the current drought and help the early growth of crops [16]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate, regional crushing profit, bean meal main contract trend, spot - futures price difference of bean meal, management fund CBOT net position, regional bean meal spot price, bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, U.S. soybean - producing area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvesting progress, U.S. soybean cumulative export sales volume to the world, U.S. soybean weekly net sales volume, U.S. soybean cumulative sales volume to China, U.S. soybean weekly export volume, U.S. oil mill crushing profit, bean meal weekly average pick - up volume, bean meal weekly average trading volume, port soybean inventory, oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill weekly crushing volume, oil mill crushing operating rate, oil mill bean meal inventory, and feed enterprise bean meal inventory days [17][18][19][22][24][26][28][30][32][34][38][40][42][43][45][47][49][51][52][53].