农产品早报 2025-07-01 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周一美豆小幅上涨后回落，USDA 面积报告显示 2025 年大豆种植面积为 8336 万英亩，较 3 月意向仅下 调 13 万英亩，市场反应平淡。上周交易天气较好及贸易战担忧美豆整体回落，不过美豆估值略低，可 能存在一定支撑。周一国内豆粕现货小幅上调 30-50 元左右，华东报 2840 元/吨，油厂开机率下调但仍 较高，豆粕成交较弱，提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大豆库存为 809 万吨，油厂豆粕库 存 69.16 万吨，维持累库趋势。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳定小涨，中国买盘有所放缓， 中美大豆关税仍未 ...

五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-06-30 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 上周五美豆收涨，USDA 面积报告前调整仓位，上周交易天气较好及贸易战担忧美豆整体回落，不过美 豆估值略低，可能存在一定支撑。国内豆粕期货大幅回落，累库压力增大，现货压榨量本周小幅下调， 饲料企业库存天数报 7.75 天环比持平，同比中性。周末国内豆粕现货小幅上调 30 元左右，华东报 2820 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计本周预计压榨大豆 228 万吨，上周压榨 249 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳定小涨，中国买盘有所放缓， 中美大豆关税仍未解除支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意贸易战若缓 和或宏观影响带来的超预期下跌。周一夜间美豆将发布种植面积报告，市场不确定性增加，关注面积方 面 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is in a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors. The domestic soybean meal valuation is under pressure, while the external soybean import cost fluctuates. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the supply pressure at the upper end [2][5]. - The global oil market is expected to be volatile. Although there are some positive factors, the upside space is limited due to factors such as annual production increase expectations and weak demand [7][10]. - The domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The next rebound depends on significant problems in Brazilian sugar production [12][13]. - The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are some positive factors, there is a lack of strong driving force for continuous rebound [15][16]. - The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in many places, and the futures market should consider a strategy of selling on rebounds [18][20]. - The domestic pig price may rise in the north and remain stable in the south. Different trading strategies are recommended for near - term and far - term contracts [22][23]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: US soybeans declined slightly on Thursday. The domestic soybean meal futures dropped significantly, and the spot price fell by about 30 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation pressure increased, and there were rumors that feed mills were trying to purchase Argentine soybean meal [2]. - **Weather**: The US soybean - producing areas are expected to have favorable rainfall in the next two weeks, covering most of the producing areas [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range of 2850 - 3020 yuan/ton for far - month contracts such as 09. Pay attention to the USDA area report on the night of next Monday [5]. Oil - **Export and Production Data**: Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, and the production showed a mixed trend. The US soybean export net sales decreased in the week ending June 19 [7]. - **Policy**: Malaysia established a special committee to respond to the EU zero - deforestation law. The EPA policy is positive for the oil market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market should be viewed as volatile. Although there are some positive factors, the upside space is limited [10]. Sugar - **Market Data**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound on Thursday. The spot price of sugar in various regions increased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar decreased [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The next rebound depends on significant problems in Brazilian sugar production [13]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rise on Thursday. The spot price also increased. The average predicted US cotton planting area in 2025 decreased by 12.94% compared to 2024 [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are some positive factors, there is a lack of strong driving force for continuous rebound [16]. Egg - **Market Data**: The national egg price was mostly stable with a few declines. The supply was generally sufficient, and the digestion speed was average [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in many places, and the futures market should consider a strategy of selling on rebounds [20]. Pig - **Market Data**: The domestic pig price generally rose on the previous day. The northern market had a faster sales speed, and the southern market had less momentum in price increases [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, it is recommended to buy on dips before delivery. For far - term contracts such as 11 and 01, wait to sell on rebounds [23].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王滚辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年6月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 臣湘 | 6月25日 | 6月24日 | 张跃幅 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | | | -0.24% | 8240 | 8260 | -20 | 江苏一级 | 现价 | 7626 | 7606 | 20 | 0.26% | 期价 | Y2509 | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 614 | ୧୮୩ | -6.12% | -40 | 09+250 | 09+250 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | - | 0 | | 0.00% | 仓单 | 18882 | 18882 | 0 | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 6月25日 | 6月24日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 广东24度 | 8490 | 8490 | 0.00% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The market for rapeseed meal is under pressure due to ample supply and stable demand, making it difficult for prices to sustain upward momentum before the weather trading phase for U.S. soybeans begins [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The increase in imported soybeans has led to a normalization of customs clearance and unloading, resulting in abundant raw materials for coastal oil mills and a rise in operating rates, which has expanded soybean meal production [2] - As of June 20, 2025, the physical inventory days of soybean meal for domestic feed enterprises reached 7.74 days, an increase of 0.91 days (11.75%) from the previous week and 4.08% higher than the same period last year, marking the highest level in three years [2] - The current high inventory levels of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, along with the potential for increased market circulation of previously imported rapeseed meal, may exert downward pressure on domestic prices [2] Group 2: Demand Challenges - The trade friction between China and Canada has led to a reduction in imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal, narrowing the price gap between rapeseed meal and soybean meal, thus diminishing the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal [3] - The current harvest of domestic wheat, which is competitively priced compared to corn, is prompting some feed mills to substitute wheat for corn, further reducing the demand for relatively expensive soybean meal [3] Group 3: Market Influences - The "seesaw" effect is evident as U.S. biodiesel policies have driven up soybean oil futures, which in turn has influenced the prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil, potentially suppressing rapeseed meal prices [4] - With the completion of canola planting in Canada and favorable growth conditions for U.S. soybeans, the likelihood of weather-related price fluctuations in the short term is low [4] - As trade relations between China and the U.S. and Canada improve, the normalization of soybean and rapeseed imports is expected, maintaining a backdrop of ample supply for meal products [4]

五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-06-26 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆继续回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，不过美豆估值略低，可能存在一定支撑。国内豆粕期 货继续回落，现货压榨量本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周三国内豆粕现货跌 30 元/吨左右，华东报 2820 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计周三国内豆粕成交较弱，提货也回落。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美豆端生物柴油政策提供利好，意味着需求端压榨量的预测边际向好，美豆的库销比水平可能支撑 其估值，但考虑到全球蛋白供 ...

农产品早报 2025-06-25 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆继续回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，原油大跌亦打压美豆油估值，不过市场预期全球大豆 新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠加美豆估值略低，美豆整体偏震荡。国内豆粕期货继续回落，现货压榨量 本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周二国内豆粕现货稳定或略跌 10 元/吨左右，华东报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计周二国内豆粕成交较弱，提货仍较好。 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美豆端生物柴油政策提供利好，意味着需求端压榨量的预测边际向好，美豆的库销比水平可能支撑 其进一步上行，但考虑到全球蛋白供应过剩，美豆可能仍将低于成本。 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - According to the USDA June report, in the 25/26 period, there will be significant increases in the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. The export volume of soybeans will increase the most, and the crushing volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will also rise. In the 24/25 period, the stock-to-use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline. Among the four major global oils and fats in the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [4][8][11][15][18]. - In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons. The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock-to-use ratio in the 25/26 period. In the 25/26 period, the production growth rate is slightly higher than the consumption growth rate, and the industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate [33][35][36]. - In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area in Canada will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The rapeseed crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, and exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, while the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons. In the EU, the rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again. In Australia, the rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare. In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons. The total production of rapeseed in the EU, Canada, Australia, Russia, and Ukraine will reach 50.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in 2024 [41][42][46][50][55]. - The production of Malaysian palm oil is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations. The production of Indonesian palm oil in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period. As of April 24, the biodiesel consumption in Indonesia this year was 4.44 billion liters. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires the implementation of B50 biodiesel in early 2026, but there is a need to increase production capacity [61][66][67][72]. - The soybean - palm oil price spread in India first declined and then rebounded. The soybean crushing profit in South America has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will significantly decrease after July. The front - end trading of palm oil supply pressure is basically over, and the subsequent rebound amplitude will be determined by the degree of demand improvement and crude oil prices [97][201]. - The actual domestic production capacity of the US soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. If the unannounced expansion plans are realized, the total production will increase to over 2.78 billion bushels per year by 2030. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. The South American soybean crushing profit has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will decline significantly after July. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oilseeds - **Production**: In the 25/26 period, the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase significantly. In the 24/25 period, the stock - to - use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline [4][15]. - **Export**: In the 25/26 period, the export volume of soybeans will increase the most [8]. - **Crushing**: In the 25/26 period, the crushing volume of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase [11]. Oils and Fats - **Production**: In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. In the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [18][33]. - **Consumption**: Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons in the 24/25 period. The industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate in the 25/26 period [33][36]. - **Inventory and Stock - to - Use Ratio**: The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio in the 25/26 period [33]. Rapeseed - **Canada**: In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, and the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons [41]. - **EU**: The rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again [42]. - **Australia**: The rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare [46][50]. - **Russia and Ukraine**: In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons [55]. Palm Oil - **Malaysia**: The production is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations [61]. - **Indonesia**: The production in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period [66][67]. India The soybean - palm oil price spread first declined and then rebounded [97]. US - **Soybean Crushing**: The actual domestic production capacity of the soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - **Biodiesel**: The US biodiesel RVO is still in the proposal stage. The final RVO quantity may be lower than the proposal. Whether imported raw materials are used or not, the consumption of US soybean oil will increase, but the export supply of US soybean oil to the world will decrease [201]. Domestic Oils and Fats Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201].

农产品早报 2025-06-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周一美豆小幅回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，不过市场预期全球大豆新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠 加美豆估值略低，美豆整体偏震荡。国内豆粕期货回落，现货压榨量本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周 一国内豆粕现货下跌 50 元/吨，华东报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周港口大豆库存 783 万吨，油厂 豆粕库存 51 万吨。周一国内豆粕成交一般，提货仍较好。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美 ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 中东冲突范围扩大 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨188收于4115林吉特/吨，涨幅 4.79%；棕榈油09合约涨396收于8536元/吨，涨幅4.86%； 豆油09合约涨370收于8156元/吨，涨幅4.75%；菜油09合 约涨416收于9726元/吨，涨幅4.47%；CBOT美豆油主连涨 3.85收 ...