1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and relatively weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [8][9][13]. - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, also with losses. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The cash production cost at the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,311 yuan/ton, a 0.33% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,227 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 7,245 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased slightly. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.41% to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.42% to 70,900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The import volume decreased by 21.77% to 13,845.31 tons [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% to 62,500 GWh [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain upward trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines also had corresponding changes. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly by 34.73% to 576,138 tons [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the domestic lithium ore market, with shortages in most months [29]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend, and the production capacity also increased. The monthly output in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [32]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume decreased, and the export volume was relatively small. The monthly import volume in August was 17,000 tons [32][39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with shortages in some months [39]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The monthly output in August 2025 was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease from the previous month [19]. - **Export and Import**: The export volume decreased significantly, and the import volume was relatively small [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with shortages in some months [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica was relatively high, resulting in losses in production. The cost - profit situation of different recycling materials also varied [48][50]. - **Processing Cost and Profit**: The processing costs of lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased, and the profit of lithium carbonate purification and other processing links also changed [48][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 1.12% week - on - week decrease to 138,512 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other parties increased [10]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed certain changes, with the monthly inventory of downstream and smelters having corresponding fluctuations [55]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Cost**: The prices of some lithium batteries increased slightly, and the cost of battery cells also changed [59]. - **Production and Sales**: The monthly output and sales volume of lithium batteries increased, and the export volume also showed an upward trend [59]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types of batteries [61]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary precursor decreased [64]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors increased, and the capacity utilization rate also showed corresponding changes [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with shortages in some months [67]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary material decreased [70]. - **Production and Export - Import**: The production of ternary materials increased, and the export and import volumes also had corresponding changes [70][72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of iron phosphate lithium increased [74]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly output of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased, and the export volume of iron phosphate lithium also increased significantly [74][77]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles increased. The sales volume in August 2025 was 1.262 million vehicles, a 11.91% increase from the previous month [19][82]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase [83].

Report Overview - The report is about the lithium carbonate market, dated September 15, 2025, titled "Lithium Carbonate: Supply and Demand Both Increase, Operating Under Pressure" [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the price is under pressure. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 71,160, with a decrease compared to previous periods (e.g., -3,100 compared to T - 5). The trading volume was 410,989, also showing a decline. The open interest was 309,402, which decreased as well. Similar trends were observed for the 2601 contract [1] - **Basis and Other Data**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was 1,290, with fluctuations over different time intervals. The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250, remaining stable on the latest day [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 842, showing a downward trend. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,450, down 400 from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 72,398 yuan/ton, down 406 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 7.09 - 7.4 million yuan/ton, with an average of 7.245 million yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 6.96 - 7.08 million yuan/ton, with an average of 7.02 million yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton [2] - On September 12, 2025 (Argentine local time), Zijin Mining's Lithium Industry Kesi 3Q lithium salt lake project with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate was put into operation. The second - phase project with a planned capacity of 40,000 tons/year is in the pre - work stage. After full operation of both phases, the annual capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is -1, within the range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4] Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamental supply - demand pattern is good. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The sharp decline in the market on the day was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines. The mid - term supply - demand shows an over - supply cycle, and the market may be weak and volatile after the mine resumes production and consumption support weakens [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,040 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, with a - 4.87% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 751,480 lots, and the open interest was 340,814 lots (351,340 lots the previous day). The current basis was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,101 lots with no change from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 - 75,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,600 - 71,800 yuan/ton, both down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 805 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The downstream material factories' price - fixing enthusiasm increased significantly. In September, the market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and the overall supply of lithium carbonate was still tight. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while that from lithium mica decreased to 15% [1] Strategy - The short - term supply - demand pattern is good. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increases, and that from mica decreases in the short term. The consumption end is in the peak season with good downstream production schedules. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The mid - term over - supply cycle remains unchanged, and the market may be weak and volatile later [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the trend intensity of lithium carbonate is -1, suggesting a weak - downward trend, and advises to pay attention to the actual progress of production resumption [3]. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,720 yuan, down 2,180 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 751,480 lots, up 159,805 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 340,814 lots, down 10,526 lots from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 70,800 yuan, down 2,100 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 168,470 lots, up 53,958 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 174,101 lots, down 4,445 lots from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 38,101 lots, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The basis of spot - 2511 was 2,730 yuan, up 1,030 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2601 was 2,650 yuan, up 950 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 80 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,250 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the difference between spot and CIF was 6,502 yuan, down 768 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 849 yuan, down 30 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815 yuan, down 50 yuan from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan, down 1,150 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan, down 1,150 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Industry Chain - related Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,620 yuan, down 275 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 32,225 yuan, down 275 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) was 29,430 yuan, down 270 yuan from T - 1 [1]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,414 yuan/ton, down 1,175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - Codelco and SQM are about to finalize a landmark cooperation agreement to jointly mine lithium in the Atacama Salt Flat. Supporters believe this will diversify Codelco's revenue sources as it faces financial pressure due to falling copper production and debt surges from over - budget expansion projects [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the faster - than - expected news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, and the price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although there is uncertainty about the resumption of production, market sentiment improved slightly. The spot price center shifted downwards, and downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points. In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Affected by the news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 68,600. The price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although an insider said there was uncertainty about the resumption, the market sentiment improved limitedly, and the main contract barely stood above 70,000 at the end of the session. The spot price center moved down, with electric carbon dropping 1,150 to 73,450. Downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points due to rigid procurement demand during the peak season [9]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Australian ore dropped 45 to 805 US dollars per ton, and lithium mica ore dropped 50 to 1,815 yuan per ton. The profit of salt factories improved, with the production loss of salt factories purchasing lithium mica narrowing to 7,321 yuan per ton and that of salt factories purchasing lithium spodumene narrowing to 1,507 yuan per ton [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the implementation of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine, and it is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Galan Lithium's Project Progress**: Australian Galan Lithium announced that the first - phase construction of its Hombre Muerto West (HMW) lithium salt project in Argentina has made significant progress. The design of Pool 4 has been completed, which will support an operation of 4,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent. The construction of a nanofiltration plant in Sydney is in progress. The project has a mid - term goal of achieving an annual output of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially increasing to 60,000 tons in 2030 [12]. - **Ningde Times' Mine Resumption**: On September 10, it was learned that Ningde Times' subsidiary Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. held a "Jianxiawo Lithium Mine Resumption Work Meeting" on September 9 to discuss the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo Lithium Mine. The goal is to complete the resumption of production by November this year, but it is uncertain whether this goal can be achieved, and it may be adjusted according to the actual progress. Investors are advised to view market news rationally [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market currently faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to change the downward trend [13]. - The cost - end situation varies: the cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica is high, resulting in losses; the cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - The future price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71300 - 74500 [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19419 tons, a 2.04% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94756 tons, a 0.28% increase from the previous week, while the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17644 tons, a 1.05% decrease from the previous week. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased on a daily basis but is lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 75759 yuan/ton, a 0.23% increase from the previous day, with a production loss of 2239 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78868 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production loss of 7348 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production motivation. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - **Other aspects**: The basis on September 9th shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1700 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The smelter inventory is 39475 tons, an 8.90% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 55207 tons, a 4.56% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory is 140092 tons, a 0.73% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes below the MA20. The net position of the main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions [10]. - **Likely factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high - level supply from ore and salt - lake ends with limited downward space, and the lack of willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [11][12]. 2. Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate - **Price and basis**: Most of the disk prices of lithium - related products decreased compared to the previous day, with a decline range of about 1.98% - 3.24%. The basis of most products increased compared to the previous day [15]. - **Upstream prices**: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.34%, while the prices of other upstream products such as lithium mica concentrate, phosphoric acid iron, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [15]. - **Cathode materials and lithium - battery prices**: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium - ion batteries remained unchanged [15]. 3. Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. - **Production**: The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has shown different trends in different years. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased significantly, with a large increase in the import volume from Australia [24]. - **Self - sufficiency rate**: The self - sufficiency rates of lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica have shown different trends over the years. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has fluctuated over the years [24]. - **Supply - demand balance**: There are fluctuations in the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore, with some months showing a surplus and some showing a deficit [27]. 4. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling materials) has shown different trends over the years. The monthly production of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has also changed [30]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has fluctuated [30]. - **Supply - demand balance**: There are fluctuations in the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, with some months showing a surplus and some showing a deficit [38]. 5. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity utilization rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly start - up rate of different sources (causticization and smelting) have shown different trends over the years [41]. - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources and the total production have changed over the years. The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has also shown an upward trend [41]. - **Supply - demand balance**: There are fluctuations in the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide, with some months showing a surplus and some showing a deficit [44]. 6. Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - **Cost and profit of different raw materials**: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and recycling materials for lithium - compound production have shown different trends over the years. The processing cost composition and profit of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also vary [47][49][52]. 7. Inventory - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors (smelter, downstream, etc.) has shown different trends over the years [54]. - **Lithium hydroxide inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in different sectors (downstream, smelter, etc.) has also changed [54]. 8. Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price**: The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated over the years. - **Production**: The monthly production of power cells, including power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage cells, has shown different trends. - **Loading volume**: The monthly loading volume of power batteries, including lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, has changed. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has shown an upward trend [58]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium - battery cells, including power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries, has fluctuated [60]. - **Energy - storage winning bids**: The winning bids for energy - storage systems, EPC, and other equipment have shown different trends [60]. 9. Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price**: The price of ternary precursors has fluctuated over the years. - **Cost and profit**: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have also changed. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has shown different trends over the years. - **Production and supply - demand balance**: The monthly production of ternary precursors has increased, and there are fluctuations in the supply - demand balance, with some months showing a surplus and some showing a deficit [63][66]. 10. Demand - Ternary Material - **Price**: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated over the years. - **Cost and profit**: The cost - profit trend of ternary materials has also changed. - **Start - up rate**: The weekly start - up rate of ternary materials has shown different trends over the years. - **Production, import, export, and inventory**: The production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials have all changed [69][71]. 11. Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/ Lithium Iron Phosphate - **Price**: The price of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate has fluctuated over the years. - **Cost and profit**: The cost - profit trend of lithium iron phosphate has also changed. - **Capacity and production**: The capacity and monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate have shown different trends over the years. - **Export and inventory**: The monthly export volume and weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate have also changed [73][76][78]. 12. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, sales, and export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have shown an upward trend over the years. - **Sales penetration rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has also increased [81][82]. - **Retail - wholesale ratio and inventory index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have shown different trends over the years [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: Buy put options [4] Core Viewpoints - The futures market of lithium carbonate may decline due to the news of mine restart and weak overall commodity sentiment. The price will gradually return to the fundamentals if the previously shut - down mines resume production [2][3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,740 yuan/ton and closed at 72,900 yuan/ton, a - 2.62% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 591,675 lots, and the open interest was 351,340 lots (364,137 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 300 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,101 lots, a change of 650 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,700 - 75,500 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,750 - 72,950 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 850 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. The market is in the peak demand season with downstream rigid demand, but procurement activities slowed slightly this week as the futures price rebounded. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounting for over 60% and that from lepidolite dropping to 15%. In September, supply and demand are both increasing, but demand is growing faster, and overall supply is expected to be tight [3]. Strategy - The futures market declined significantly after oscillation, affected by weak commodity sentiment and the possible approval of Jiangxi manufacturers. The short - term spot supply - demand pattern is good, with reduced inventory and production. If the previously shut - down mines resume production, the price will return to fundamentals, and the futures market may decline. Attention should be paid to mine operation, and participants should manage risks [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the lithium carbonate market, indicating that both supply and demand are increasing, and the market is in a weakly oscillating state. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, suggesting a relatively bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 73,880 yuan, with a change of 880 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 50, and the open interest was 3,467. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 74,260 yuan, the trading volume was 802,006, and the open interest was 364,002 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 36,631 hands, an increase of 1,683 hands compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 870 yuan, and spot - 2511 was 490 yuan. The basis of 2509 - 2511 was -380 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 871 yuan, and the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,865 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,750 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,500 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 80,520 yuan [1]. - **Industry Chain Related Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,930 yuan, and the price of ternary materials 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 113,450 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 214 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Kodal Minerals obtained approval from the Malian government to export 125,000 tons of spodumene concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, with the value ranging from -2 to 2, indicating a relatively bearish view [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - On September 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a low. The spot market had fair trading volume, and the basis premium decreased. The cost side saw an increase in the price of spodumene concentrate and a decrease in the price of lepidolite. The supply side witnessed a rise in lithium carbonate production last week, with a slight increase in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased last week, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, the 3C shipments were average, and the scheduled production of energy storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 34,948 (+830) tons, and the social inventory decreased. Considering all factors, with good profits, high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and decreasing social inventory, the short - term supply and demand both strengthened. The impact from the Jiangxi mine end has been eliminated, and the short - term fundamentals have not changed much. The market is still easily affected by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, appropriately buy options to protect positions, and take appropriate profit - taking on the previously bought straddle options. [1] Summary According to Related Information Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 73,000 yuan/ton, that of the consecutive - one contract was 73,340 yuan/ton, the consecutive - two contract was 73,580 yuan/ton, and the consecutive - three contract was 77,700 yuan/ton. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 712,151 (+269,351) lots, and the open interest was 353,674 (+7,626) lots. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 34,948 (+830) tons. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 340 yuan/ton, the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 440 yuan/ton. The basis was 1,580 yuan/ton. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 yuan/ton, and the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 874 US dollars/ton. [1] Industry News - **Salt Lake Mining Rights**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) responded during a research reception that the current mining rights compliance inspection is a new trend of stricter industry supervision, reflecting the strict control of the regulatory authorities over the compliance of lithium resource development and utilization activities. The company's mining business is fully compliant, and its production and operation are running stably. - **Ioneer's Project**: Ioneer reduced the leaching time and increased the plant output. The economic viability of its Rhyolite Ridge project in Nevada has been substantially improved. The updated mine plan shows that the unlevered net present value of the mine increased by 38% to $1.89 billion, and the unlevered internal rate of return rose to 16.8%. From the third to the twenty - fifth year, the annual production of lithium carbonate equivalent increased by 20% to 255,000 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate increased by 9% to 126,700 tons. The estimated all - sustaining cash cost of lithium carbonate equivalent is $5,626/ton, and the ore throughput increased by 25% from 2.4 million tons per year to 3 million tons per year. - **Kodal Minerals' Project**: Kodal Minerals obtained an export license for the spodumene concentrate produced from its Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. The initial export volume is 125,000 tons, but the final administrative steps in the export process need to be completed. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Inter - delivery spread: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures market is still operating weakly, but the spot supply - demand pattern is good with decreasing inventory and production. Lithium carbonate production from mica has decreased, but lithium carbonate production from spodumene has made up for it. There is uncertainty in the subsequent approval of other mines. The consumption side provides support, and lithium carbonate is expected to be supported under the influence of mine - end disturbances, but the market fluctuates greatly [3]. Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 77,000 yuan/ton and closed at 75,560 yuan/ton, a - 2.73% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 540,295 lots, and the open interest was 339,133 lots (346,605 lots the previous day). The current basis is 2,530 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 31,197 lots, a change of 1,310 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 76,500 - 80,200 yuan/ton, a - 1,300 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 75,350 - 76,750 yuan/ton, also a - 1,300 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 880 US dollars/ton, a - 15 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - The weekly production decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. The production from lithium spodumene increased slightly, while the production from mica decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 407 tons to 141,366 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, intermediate inventory increased slightly, and smelter inventory decreased [2]. Strategy - Pay attention to the mine - end operation situation. Although the lithium carbonate market is expected to be supported, the market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to manage risks [3].