每经AI快讯，周二(1月13日)，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率跌0.19个基点报3.530%，3年期 美债收益率涨0.12个基点报3.591%，5年期美债收益率跌0.17个基点报3.752%，10年期美债收益率涨0.40 个基点报4.179%，30年期美债收益率涨0.82个基点报4.837%。 ...

每经AI快讯，周一(1月12日)，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨0.64个基点报3.534%，3年期 美债收益率涨0.29个基点报3.590%，5年期美债收益率涨0.53个基点报3.755%，10年期美债收益率涨1.19 个基点报4.177%，30年期美债收益率涨1.62个基点报4.828%。 ...

Employment Data - In December 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, below the market expectation of 65,000, while the previous month's data was revised down from 64,000 to 56,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.6%, while the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4% from 62.5%[1] - The broader U6 unemployment rate declined to 8.4% from 8.7%[1] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.33% month-on-month and rebounded to 3.76% year-on-year from 3.62%[1] - The average weekly hours for private sector employees fell to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours, indicating weak demand[1] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2.3 basis points to approximately 3.51%, and the 10-year yield increased by 0.8 basis points to around 4.17%[1] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened to around 99, influenced by rising Treasury yields[1] Sector Performance - The government sector added 13,000 jobs, with notable contributions from education and healthcare services, which added 41,000 jobs[1] - The manufacturing sector experienced job losses for three consecutive months, with a decrease of 8,000 jobs in December[1] - Retail and transportation sectors also saw job losses, with retail shedding 25,000 jobs and transportation losing 6,600 jobs[1] Future Outlook - The market has largely dismissed the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026, with potential cuts anticipated in June 2026 under the new Fed chair[1] - The report indicates a mixed labor market, with cyclical industries showing weakness while government employment growth turned positive[1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（1月9日），美债收益率多数上涨，2年期美债收益率涨4.60个基点报3.532%，3年期 美债收益率涨4.27个基点报3.587%，5年期美债收益率涨2.45个基点报3.750%，10年期美债收益率涨0.40 个基点报4.167%，30年期美债收益率跌2.03个基点报4.814%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is particularly significant as it will be the first data released on time after the government shutdown, with mixed signals from previous employment data creating uncertainty in the market [1][6]. Employment Data - The previous non-farm report showed an unexpected increase of 64,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years, indicating a paradox where job growth exists but job searching has become more difficult [1][3]. - Economists predict around 73,000 new jobs for December, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, although some institutions remain less optimistic, suggesting the rate may stay at 4.6% [3][5]. - Initial jobless claims were reported at 208,000, slightly below expectations, indicating no significant layoffs, while continuing claims rose to 1.914 million, suggesting increased difficulty in finding new jobs [6][8]. Market Reactions - The rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to 4.18% has created anxiety among investors, as higher yields typically pressure gold prices due to the comparative attractiveness of interest-bearing assets [3][12]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a cooling job market and a lack of clear direction in interest rates, making it challenging for gold to establish a strong upward trend [10][12]. Investor Sentiment - Consumer sentiment reflects rising inflation expectations at 3.4%, while confidence in job opportunities has dropped to the lowest level since the survey began, indicating a growing concern about the economic outlook [8][10]. - Investors are advised to consider their motivations for holding gold, as the current market volatility may not align with short-term speculative strategies but could serve as a hedge in uncertain times [12].

一、基本面 昨日1月8日（星期四），黄金早盘在4466附近受阻开始下跌，一直震荡下跌到美盘前，最低跌至4408/4407区域，美盘企稳开始上涨，收盘前最高上涨至 4479/4480区域，日线收出一根带有长下影线的阳线。 1、美国就业数据成焦点 2、四小时级别：结构层面，整体分析思路维持不变，核心仍围绕4500/4501的突破情况展开：若价格持续受限于该区间下方，需重点观察C浪调整走势；若 成功向上突破，则大概率处于第5浪上涨行情。 点位方面，下方支撑先关注4446/4445、4437/4436区域。上述两个位置分别对应黄金自4408/4407上行至4484过程中的黄金分割比例0.5及0.618对应的支撑 位，同时4446/4445区域也是凌晨金价首次冲高至4465遇阻回落后的低点位置，4437/4436区域则是欧盘及美盘初期反复承压震荡的位置，该区域突破后行情 启动加速上涨，若价格回落，需关注该区域的顶底转换效应。此外，需重点留意昨日低点4408/4407区域支撑，若金价在未突破4500/4501阻力前率先下破该 支撑位，则基本可确认行情进入C浪调整阶段。 上方阻力重点关注4500/4501，该位置为本周当前 ...

每经AI快讯，周四(1月8日)，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.86个基点报3.488%，3年期美 债收益率涨2.83个基点报3.550%，5年期美债收益率涨2.61个基点报3.727%，10年期美债收益率涨1.97个 基点报4.167%，30年期美债收益率涨0.71个基点报4.838%。 ...

每经AI快讯，周三(1月7日)，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨1.45个基点报3.470%，3年期美 债收益率涨0.28个基点报3.525%，5年期美债收益率跌0.52个基点报3.703%，30年期美债收益率跌3.17个 基点报4.829%。 ...

Core Insights - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,579 billion, an increase of $11.5 billion from the end of November, representing a growth rate of 0.34%, and a rise of $155.5 billion compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 1: Foreign Trade and Investment - China's export volume and quality have improved, with the goods trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in the first 11 months of 2025, highlighting its significant support for the balance of payments [1] - The inflow of foreign securities capital has remained at a high level, contributing to the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves at the end of December was primarily influenced by changes in the US dollar exchange rate and financial asset prices [1] - The continuous rise in foreign exchange reserves over the past four months reflects the positive valuation effects brought about by changes in monetary policies, macroeconomic data, and exchange rate adjustments [1] - The foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for five consecutive months, driven by a decline in the US dollar index, rising global stock indices, and significantly lower US Treasury yields [1]

【黄金期货行情表现】 1月7日，沪金主力暂报998.90元/克，跌幅0.17%，今日沪金主力开盘价1006.00元/克，截至目前最高 1011.00元/克，最低997.64元/克。 【宏观消息】 美国供应管理协会(ISM)发布的调查显示，12月制造业指数降至47.9，为 2024年10月以来最低，且连续 第10个月低于50，新订单进一步萎缩，投入成本持续攀升，显示该行业仍深受特朗普政府进口关税的拖 累。调查显示，短期内制造业复苏的可能性不大，但随着特朗普的减税政策生效，经济学家仍对今年的 反弹抱有希望。 明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利表示，通胀正在缓慢下降，但失业率仍有可能"跳升"。他表示："我认 为通胀风险在于其持续性，这些关税影响需要数年时间才能在系统中被消化，而我确实认为失业率可能 会从当前水平跳升。"他认为失业率约为4.6%，这表明劳动力市场正在降温。但他对显示通胀也在降温 的数据持怀疑态度，指出秋季创纪录的政府停摆导致数据收集出现问题。 【机构观点】 金银价格高位波动加剧，一方面，地缘政治紧张局势持续升温，有效提振了市场的避险情绪，资金流入 黄金等传统避险资产，为其价格提供了核心支撑。另一方面，白银在 ...