（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（11月21日），美债收益率集体下跌，3年期美债收益率跌2.24个基点报3.500%，5年 期美债收益率跌2.79个基点报3.619%，30年期美债收益率跌1.19个基点报4.712%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from SEB indicates that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to approximately 3.9% by Q1 2026, although current market conditions present challenges to this forecast [2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions and Predictions - The key to achieving the 3.9% yield target lies in the market's re-establishment of confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path [2] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have made investors more cautious about future monetary policy directions, keeping yields at relatively high levels [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial benchmark rate that reflects investor expectations regarding the U.S. economy and policy, influencing global financing costs and asset pricing [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - SEB maintains a baseline scenario of a shift to a more accommodative policy stance within the next three to four months, driven by declining inflation, moderate job growth, and slowing economic activity [3] - A downward adjustment in interest rate expectations typically leads to a more relaxed financial environment, increasing demand for long-term bonds and pushing yields lower [3] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests that any adjustments in yields may occur gradually rather than abruptly [3] Group 3: Future Influences on Yield - Key factors influencing the U.S. Treasury yield in the coming months will include Federal Reserve statements, inflation data, and economic activity indicators [3] - The ability of yields to decline to the anticipated 3.9% will depend on the clarity of policy signals and the market's confidence in the future interest rate path [3]

来源：滚动播报 9月非农就业报告显示失业率意外上升，带动美元延续走弱态势。丹斯克银行分析师在报告中指出，此 次失业率上升源于劳动力供给增加，缓解了劳动力市场的紧张状况，从而提振了市场对美联储降息的预 期，推动美债收益率和美元小幅回落。然而，分析师强调，这一数据尚不足以构成美联储明确降息的强 有力信号，趋势难以为继。该行仍预计美联储12月将按兵不动，目前市场对降息的定价概率约为32%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周四（11月20日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌5.25个基点报3.533%，3年 期美债收益率跌5.84个基点报3.525%，5年期美债收益率跌5.76个基点报3.646%，10年期美债收益率跌 4.83个基点报4.085%，30年期美债收益率跌2.98个基点报4.723%。 ...

周三（11月19日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨1.55个基点，报4.1289%，日内交投于 4.0960%-4.1328%区间。两年期美债收益率涨1.48个基点，报3.5873%，日内交投于3.5537%-3.5978%区 间，美联储发布会议纪要后刷新日高。20年期美债收益率涨1.69个基点，报4.7164%；30年期美债收益 率涨1.59个基点，报4.7488%。三年期美债收益率涨1.40个基点，五年期美债收益率涨1.75个基点，七年 期美债收益率涨1.82个基点。02/10年期美债收益率利差大致持平，报+53.955个基点。10年期通胀保值 国债（TIPS）收益率涨1.94个基点，至1.8306%；两年期TIPS收益率涨4.05个基点，至1.0878%；30年期 TIPS收益率涨2.12个基点，至2.5264%。 ...

【#为何金价出现大逆转#？#全球央行仍在爆买黄金#】美东时间11月18日，国际金价、银价再次反弹， 现货黄金收涨0.54%，现货白银收涨1%，报50.68美元/盎司。截至发稿，现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货 继续反弹。11月18日下午，现货黄金跌破4000美元/盎司关口，为11月10日以来首次。为何金价出现先 抑后扬走势？中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢对@中新经纬 表示，金价此前连续几天下跌过快，市 场多头被迫止损后，盘面反而积累一定反弹需求。一旦美元指数和美债收益率回落，短线资金迅速回补 头寸，带动金价向上修复。最新数据显示，全球央行9月净购金达到64吨，是上月的两倍多。其中，中 国增持约15吨。李钢称，官方买盘让市场更愿意在低位承接，也缓和了此前的抛售情绪。对于金价走 势，李钢认为，短期波动将继续加大，金价行情仍取决于美联储议息前的经济数据和美元走势。（宅男 财经）#黄金又反弹# 来源：@中新经纬微博 ...

Market Analysis - Trump said he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair, with possible candidates including current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid [1] - The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that as of the four weeks ending November 1st, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week ending October 18th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1,957,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, a change of - 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 929.84 yuan/gram, a 1.23% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,975.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,699.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.96% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,157,926 lots, and the open interest was 322,401 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,760 yuan/kg and closed at 11,949 yuan/kg, a 2.14% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, a change of - 2.71 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.55%, a + 1.27 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2512 contract on November 18, 2025, the long positions changed by - 3,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 619 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 445,767 lots, a change of - 38.50% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 1,214 lots, and the short positions changed by 7,720 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,758,456 lots, a change of - 37.01% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.44 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 872.72 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 78.51, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver price ratio was 79.97, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,742 kg, a change of - 27.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 623,148 kg, a change of - 17.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 910 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver and gold are both showing price stabilization, but due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold. The silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kg and 12,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver price ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board on November 18, with the 2-year yield down 3.7 basis points to 3.573%, the 10-year yield down 3.1 basis points to 4.104%, and the 30-year yield down 2.1 basis points to 4.717% [1] - The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in December have weakened due to the prolonged government shutdown affecting economic data, leading to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The European Union has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2026 to 1.2%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [3] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, Germany's growth forecast has been raised to 1.2% due to increased public spending, while France's forecast has been lowered to 0.9% and Italy's to 0.8% [3] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a $95 billion 6-week short-term debt on November 18, followed by a $160 billion 20-year long bond and an unspecified amount of 17-week short-term debt on November 19 [5] - As of November 14, the total U.S. federal debt exceeded $38.15 trillion, remaining above the $38 trillion mark for three consecutive weeks [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View of the Report - The recent correction in precious metal prices is due to the market's pre - pricing of a possible pause in interest rate cuts at the December FOMC meeting. However, the long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, and prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signaled a dovish stance but also emphasized caution as interest rates approach the neutral level. Fed Governor Waller advocated for another rate cut in December due to a weak labor market and the impact of monetary policy on low - and middle - income consumers. White House National Economic Council Director Hasset pointed out "mixed signals" in the job market, suggesting a possible slowdown, while real wages are rising and this trend will continue [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 940.88 yuan/gram and closed at 929.46 yuan/gram, a - 2.49% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 931.24 yuan/gram, a 0.19% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 12,220.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,933.00 yuan/kg, a - 3.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,558,545 lots, and the open interest was 311,515 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,975 yuan/kg and closed at 11,983 yuan/kg, a - 0.42% change from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.139%, a - 0.5 BP change from the previous trading day. The 10 - year to 2 - year spread was 0.54%, a - 0.5 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,432 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,625 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 724,872 lots, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 26,020 lots, and the short positions decreased by 21,951 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 2,791,606 lots, a - 5.26% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,044.00 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, an increase of 45 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 21.65 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 564.90 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 77.89, a 1.07% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 80.01, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On November 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 82,068 kg, a - 31.06% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 759,026 kg, a 32.12% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract expected to oscillate between 910 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract expected to oscillate between 11,700 yuan/kg and 12,200 yuan/kg [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]

昨日11月17日（星期一），黄金早盘开盘后一度上行至4107附近，随后开启下行走势，午盘时段下探至4049附近后止跌回升。欧盘初上涨4096附近后受阻， 转而进入震荡下行；美国交易时段初期，下行趋势持续延续，直至凌晨时段加速下探，触及日内最低点4007附近。收盘前夕，金价略有回弹，最终收于4045 附近，日线级别收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 2、四小时级别：黄金在周一呈现震荡下行态势，日内虽有反弹，但最终还是受阻下跌，高点持续下移，整体走势偏弱。凌晨时段，价格跌破上周五低点 4032关键支撑位，最低下探至4007附近。从技术结构来看，黄金自4245高点开启的下跌行情，已形成完整的五波运行结构。 根据周末的行情推演，黄金自4381高点启动的调整浪走势清晰：其中4381至3886的下行段定义为A浪，3886至4245的回升段构成B浪，目前价格处于4245高 点以来的C浪下跌阶段。从浪型结构推演，C浪下跌大概率延续五波运行模式，当前正处于C浪中的第一波下跌进程。昨日价格成功下破4032支撑位，标志着 C浪第一波下跌同样完成五波结构走势。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金在周一呈现震荡下跌的弱势格局，最终以阴线报收，日线 ...