Group 1 - The core point of the article is the collective rise in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities on Thursday, indicating a shift in the bond market [1][2] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 5.58 basis points to 3.724% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield rose by 6.39 basis points to 3.697% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield went up by 5.90 basis points to 3.815% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield climbed by 5.61 basis points to 4.287% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 4.83 basis points to 4.873% [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周三（8月13日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌5.84个基点报3.668%，3年 期美债收益率跌6.94个基点报3.633%，5年期美债收益率跌6.78个基点报3.756%，10年期美债收益率跌6 个基点报4.231%，30年期美债收益率跌5.74个基点报4.824%。 ...

周二（8月12日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨0.39个基点，报4.2888%，北京时间20:30发 布美国CPI通胀数据时，从4.28%上方的平盘跳水至4.24%下方刷新日低，随后反弹，在22:17涨至 4.3160%刷新日高。两年期美债收益率跌3.76个基点，报3.7308%，日内交投于3.7745%-3.7018%区间， CPI数据出炉时也从3.77%下方的平盘跳水并刷新日低，后续持续低位震荡。20年期美债收益率涨2.56个 基点，报4.8545%，数据发布时跌至4.7948%刷新日低，随后反弹至4.8802%刷新日高；30年期美债收益 率涨2.62个基点，报4.8786%。 三年期美债收益率跌3.06个基点，五年期美债收益率跌1.40个基点，七 年期美债收益率跌0.52个基点。三个月期国库券/10年期美债收益率利差涨2.420个基点，报+5.155个基 点。02/10年期美债收益率利差涨4.146个基点，报+55.586个基点，20:30跌至+48.092个基点刷新日低， 随后反弹至57.414个基点刷新日高。02/30年期美债收益率利差涨6.382个基点，05/30年期美债收益率利 差涨4 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of U.S. Treasury yields on August 12, with short-term yields declining while long-term yields increased [1][2] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 2.93 basis points to 3.727% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield fell by 2.50 basis points to 3.703% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 0.70 basis points to 3.824% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 0.97 basis points to 4.291% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 3.13 basis points to 4.882% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current high yields in the US Treasury market indicate underlying economic conditions that may not align with the Federal Reserve's intentions to lower interest rates, which could create investment opportunities in the A-share market [3][5] - The importance of data over subjective analysis is emphasized, suggesting that understanding the real market pulse through quantitative data is crucial for making informed investment decisions [3][19] - The article highlights that not all stocks benefit equally in a bull market, and effective capital utilization is key to achieving superior returns [5][6] Group 2 - The concept of "shakeout" is introduced, indicating that healthy stock price increases are often accompanied by periods of volatility, which can mislead less experienced investors [10][18] - Quantitative tools are presented as essential for retail investors to navigate the market effectively, as they provide objective insights into market trends and institutional behaviors [19] - The article suggests that understanding the dynamics of US Treasury yields and their impact on global investment flows can provide strategic advantages for investors in the A-share market [3][19]

近日，人民币对美元汇率连续较快回调。 国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人王春英近日表示，将密切关注外汇市场形势，加强跨境资金流动宏 观审慎管理，引导跨境资本有序流动，处理好内部均衡和外部均衡的平衡，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡 水平上基本稳定。 业内人士分析，人民币汇率可能因市场供求变化继续回调，但人民币汇率总体仍处于较高水平，未来在 贸易维持顺差及中美实际利差仍处高位情况下，人民币汇率出现持续性单边回调的概率不大，预计人民 币汇率弹性将进一步增大。 美债利率上行 近期，10年期美债收益率快速逼近3%关口。数据显示，4月20日10年期美债收益率最高升至2.98%，距 3.0%仅"一步之遥"；30年期美债收益率最高升至3.03%，创出2019年4月以来新高。 机构人士认为，美债收益率快速上行与美国通胀预期高企、加息预期强烈有关。美联储近期公布的3月 议息会议纪要显示，不排除5月启动"缩表"可能，还可能扩大单次加息幅度。 平安证券首席经济学家钟正生分析，市场预期美联储加息节奏加快、加息上限上移刺激实际利率上行。 美联储"缩表"路径逐渐明朗，10年期美债市场供给或进一步释放，这将推升实际利率上行。 有机构人士分析，在美联 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周一（8月11日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌0.64个基点报3.756%，3年 期美债收益率跌0.28个基点报3.728%，5年期美债收益率跌0.18个基点报3.831%，10年期美债收益率跌 0.58个基点报4.281%，30年期美债收益率跌0.30个基点报4.850%。 ...

高盛利率策略团队最新分析指出，除非美联储将基准利率降至零，否则当前五年期美国国债的估值水平在历史上极为罕见。截至周三，五年期美债收益率报 3.78%，仍接近2022年初以来的区间高位——彼时美联储政策利率下限尚处于零水平。但通过债券市场常用的相对价值评估模型（基于两年期与30年期美债 收益率的蝶式价差分析）显示，五年期品种的收益率已处于历史性高位。 高盛策略师威廉·马歇尔与比尔·祖在8月5日发布的报告中强调，当前美债市场的核心特征持续聚焦于"五年期收益率的丰沛程度"。其采用的蝶式价差模型通 过"五年期收益率×2 -（两年期+30年期收益率）"的公式计算，当前结果接近-100个基点，这一数值已触及2021年初以来形成的波动区间下限。 值得注意的是，五年期美债今年成为表现最强的品种，这主要得益于降息预期的支撑，而长期债券则因持续通胀压力和美国预算赤字扩张面临收益率上行风 险。高盛团队补充道，这种分化或许也反映着市场预期：随着美联储领导层明年更迭，政策路径可能在2026年年中后转向更为鸽派。 数据显示，自去年末以来，五年期美债收益率已累计下行60个基点，两年期品种下行52个基点，而三十年期收益率几乎未现变动，进一步 ...

Group 1 - The US Treasury yields saw a slight rebound, with the 10-year yield rising approximately 1 basis point to 4.20%, after hitting a three-month low [1] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July was reported at 50.1, below the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8, indicating challenges in the US service sector [1] - The new orders index fell to 50.3, nearly approaching stagnation, while the employment index dropped to 46.4, suggesting a contraction in job growth [1] Group 2 - The Markit composite PMI for July was reported at 55.1, higher than the initial value of 54.6 and June's 52.9, indicating stronger economic activity [2] - The Markit services PMI for July reached 55.7, the highest in seven months, reflecting a rebound in service sector activity [2] - The increase in service sector activity has led to a rise in unfinished orders, prompting companies to resume hiring, although there remains cautious sentiment due to rising costs and declining confidence in future prospects [3] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to introduce new tariffs on semiconductors, chips, and pharmaceuticals, with potential increases up to 250% over the next year and a half [3] - The US Treasury plans to auction $100 billion in short-term debt, marking a historic high, with expectations of continued marginal growth in short-term debt supply [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from its historical low of 0.51% on August 4, 2020, to nearly 400 basis points higher, marking the worst rolling five-year total return in recorded history for U.S. Treasuries [1][4]. Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached an unprecedented low of 0.51% on August 4, 2020, which is the lowest since records began in 1790 [1]. - Since that low point, the yield has increased significantly, leading to a decline in bond prices due to the inverse relationship between yield and price [1]. - The rolling five-year nominal total return for 10-year U.S. Treasuries has only seen a few instances of negative returns in the past 230 years, with the current period being one of the worst [4][5]. Group 2 - The only periods with worse real returns (nominal returns adjusted for inflation) than the past five years were the 1790s, post-World War I, and the five years leading up to 1981 [5][6]. - The 1981-1986 period saw the second-best five-year rolling real return for 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with an annual return of approximately 20% [7]. - Current yields are around 4.25%, which is close to the long-term average, making it unlikely to replicate the historical performance seen in the early 1980s [7]. Group 3 - The past five years have been characterized by a correction of long-term overvaluation in the Treasury market, with current prices appearing closer to fair value [8]. - Despite the potential for positive real returns, future U.S. inflation rates may remain above the target level of 2%, suggesting that actual annual returns for 10-year Treasuries may struggle to exceed 1% [8].