Core Insights - The weakening of the US dollar has diminished the attractiveness of holding cash, as indicated by a survey conducted by French foreign trade bank investment management [1] Group 1: Survey Findings - 41% of respondents believe that currency depreciation is the primary risk associated with holding cash [1] - 38% of participants think that better returns can be found elsewhere, making cash less appealing [1] - Concerns about inflation are significant, with 35% of respondents stating that cash interest rates are insufficient to meet long-term goals [1]

Group 1 - LME and SHFE copper prices experienced slight increases due to a weaker dollar and a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with LME three-month copper rising by 0.34% to $9,702 per ton and SHFE August copper contract increasing by 0.47% to ¥78,810 per ton [1] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is seen as a potential stabilizing factor, although analysts caution that it may not be a final resolution, and the market is awaiting clearer signals [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts, with the market estimating a 18% chance of a rate cut in July, contributing to the dollar's weakness and making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to buyers using other currencies [1] Group 2 - Lead smelters have increased the supply of second-hand electric bicycle batteries in preparation for rising summer lead demand, which has positively impacted primary lead prices [2] - Electric bicycles typically require more frequent battery replacements during summer due to reduced battery lifespan in hot weather [3] - Other LME metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum down by 0.47% to $2,567 per ton, while three-month tin, zinc, and nickel saw increases of 0.68%, 0.73%, and 0.64% respectively [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [1][3] - On June 24, LME three-month copper rose by $1.50, or 0.02%, closing at $9,669.00 per ton, with an intraday high of $9,760.50 [1][2] - The market is experiencing a significant outflow of copper from LME registered warehouses, with a 65% reduction in inventory since mid-February, now at 94,675 tons, the lowest since August 2023 [3] Group 2 - The current copper market is characterized by tight supply, as evidenced by the premium of $151 per ton for spot copper contracts over three-month copper, down from $280 the previous day [3] - The International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper market shortage of 38,000 tons in April, contrasting with a surplus of 12,000 tons in March [3] - Other metals showed mixed performance, with LME three-month aluminum down by $9.50, or 0.37%, while lead increased by $16, or 0.8% [2][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and economic indicators on metal prices, particularly copper, aluminum, and zinc [1][2] - The three-month copper price increased by 0.46% to $9,713 per ton, influenced by a weaker US dollar, while risk aversion due to conflicts in the Middle East limited further gains [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.1%, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies [1] Group 2 - Concerns over oil supply in the Middle East have led to rising oil prices, which could negatively affect global economic growth and potentially increase inflation [1] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in US economic growth, with May retail sales declining more than expected, linked to changes in US tariff policies [1] - China's imports of aluminum ore and its concentrates rose by 29.4% year-on-year in May 2025, totaling 17.51 million tons, while the first five months of 2025 saw a 33.1% increase to 85.18 million tons [1] Group 3 - In other base metals, three-month aluminum prices fell by 0.02% to $2,550 per ton, while zinc prices rose by 0.55% to $2,653 per ton [2] - Lead prices increased by 0.18% to $1,979.5 per ton, nickel prices slightly rose by 0.24% to $14,960 per ton, and tin prices saw a 1.11% increase to $32,625 per ton [2]

6月中旬，美国通胀数据意外走低，引发市场对美联储年内提前降息的强烈预期，美元汇率随即承压下 行。周三，美元兑主要货币普遍下跌，反映出投资者对美联储政策路径重新评估后的集体反应。 策略师EliasHaddad指出，"美国通胀动能减弱，这迫使市场重新考虑利率走向。"他还提到，在当前平均 关税由2%升至15%以上的背景下，物价压力仍未明显加剧，这反而凸显了需求侧的疲软，使降息的可 能性进一步增强。 贸易谈判的积极信号一度支撑美元，但未能扭转整体弱势趋势。若相关谈判能带来对外贸易壁垒的实质 性放松，或将增强美元中期韧性，但当前市场仍以短期货币政策逻辑主导汇率波动。 从技术角度看，欧元和英镑兑美元双双突破近期整理区间，显示市场情绪偏向继续做空美元。若美联储 在未来两次会议中释放鸽派信号，美元可能面临进一步调整空间。 纽约午后，美元兑日元下跌0.2%，至144.58；欧元兑美元上涨0.5%，至1.1484，盘中一度因贸易谈判消 息涨幅收窄；英镑兑美元上涨0.3%，报1.3542；瑞郎兑美元亦上扬0.3%，至0.8205。 数据驱动的预期重定价是此次美元走弱的核心因素。美国5月CPI环比仅上升0.1%，远低于经济学家普 遍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, which is putting pressure on the US dollar [1] Group 1 - Recent data indicates a slowdown in inflation and the job market, enhancing the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as this fall [1] - The geopolitical leadership adjustments by Trump and his aggressive tariff agenda are contributing to the weakening of the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in CPI is expected to suppress the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The market is aware that reaching trade agreements among major economies is not straightforward, and ongoing global trade tensions may continue to support gold prices [1] - CPI data is anticipated to rise, which should provide investors with more guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Silver prices are projected to reach $38 per ounce in the coming months, with market deficits and a weakening dollar being key factors for further price increases, potentially testing $40 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Holdings indicates that rising yen yields are prompting Japanese investors to withdraw from U.S. assets, alongside implicit exchange rate pressures from Washington, which may lead to a 6% appreciation of the yen against the dollar in the coming months [1] Group 1: Currency Trends - Nomura recommends shorting the USD/JPY pair, targeting a decline from approximately 145 yen to 136 yen by the end of September [1] - The steady pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is expected to encourage domestic investors to allocate more to local bonds rather than overseas bonds [1] Group 2: Trade and Market Sentiment - Concerns over a depreciating yen, particularly during sensitive bilateral trade negotiations, may exacerbate U.S. worries regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] - Analysts do not anticipate any symbolic foreign exchange agreements between the U.S. and Japan, but the market still expects a tacit understanding regarding a weaker dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that silver may have greater upside potential compared to gold due to various market factors, including a weakening dollar and declining bond yields [1] Market Factors - The dollar index is currently below 99, around 98.80, which has contributed to a rebound in silver prices, alongside rising gold prices [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to 4.35%, prompting capital to flow into the metals market [1] Investment Insights - Significant capital has recently been allocated to silver and gold, indicating a shift in investment strategies [1] - Spot silver has reached above $35 per ounce for the first time since October 2012, highlighting its strong performance [1] - The gold-silver ratio is estimated to be around 95-97:1, suggesting potential for silver investment [1] Demand and Interest - There is a belief that silver investment remains underappreciated, with expectations of increased market interest and industrial demand [1] - Analysts express a more optimistic outlook for silver compared to gold, indicating a brighter future for silver investments [1]

路透调查：随着美元走软，大多数新兴市场货币将保持坚挺。 ...