Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is beginning to focus on the potential for a sustained appreciation of the RMB, which could influence asset allocation strategies [1] - Approximately 19% of industries may see profit margin improvements due to RMB appreciation, leading to increased investor interest in these sectors [1] - Key sectors to watch under a strengthening RMB include aviation, gas, and paper industries driven by short-term muscle memory, as well as upstream resources, consumer goods, and services influenced by profit margin changes [1] Group 2 - The 2026 spring market is anticipated to be active, with a focus on non-mainstream sectors such as policy themes and high-dividend stocks, while the mainline structure (AI industry chain, cyclical stocks) may have limited upward potential [2] - A classic "cross-year-spring" market is forming, with significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in broad-based ETFs, indicating stable incremental capital for the market [3] - The A-share market is expected to resonate upward with global markets, driven by clear mid-term policy and liquidity expectations following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. AI bubble concerns and Japan's interest rate hikes, with a potential upward trend as investor sentiment improves [4] - The focus for A-share industry allocation includes dividend value, cyclical recovery, and thematic hotspots, particularly in metals, non-bank financials, and AI sectors [4] - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with attention on potential signals for a small rally around the New Year [5][6] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a structural trend change, with significant discrepancies in expectations for consumption, non-bank finance, and technology sectors as 2026 approaches [10][11] - Key investment themes include AI applications, commercial aerospace, and nuclear power, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and structural policy incentives [12] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive structural opportunities, particularly in AI, renewable energy, and quantum technology sectors [12]

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with expectations for A-shares to resonate upward with global markets by 2026, focusing on "technology + overseas expansion" as a continuing theme [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by narrow fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a pessimistic outlook that may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and upward market fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Industry allocation strategies include focusing on high dividend stocks, cyclical sectors, and thematic hotspots such as Hainan's duty-free shopping and nuclear power [2][4] - The anticipated "cross-year-spring" market rally is supported by early policy implementation and increased institutional investment in broad-based ETFs [4][5] - The potential for a structural outperformance in sectors like brokerage and technology is expected, driven by upcoming monetary policy changes and market liquidity improvements [7][8] Group 3 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB is expected to influence asset allocation, with approximately 19% of industries likely to see profit margin improvements due to currency appreciation [3] - Key sectors benefiting from policy support include AI, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals may also see positive impacts [6][9] - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" driven by favorable valuation levels, liquidity conditions, and catalysts that enhance risk appetite [6][12] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from a single narrative to a broader focus on physical demand and domestic policy benefits, with sectors like AI and consumer services poised for recovery [10][13] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as having significant earnings elasticity, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery are expected to benefit from AI investments and export demand [13][14] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment before the anticipated cross-year rally, with a focus on structural opportunities aligned with policy directions and industry trends [11][14]

► 内部方面，重要会议后投资者较为关注经济基本面。 近期投资者对于经济基本面的关注度有所回升。11月经济数据相比10月继续边际走 缓，固定资产投资的同比降幅较大，社会零售消费增速受"以旧换新"政策高基数影响而回落，金融数据中M1同比增速在10月和11月连续下 行。近期金融及经济数据反映基本面回稳仍需稳增长政策支持。 影响市场的短期因素偏多，前期调整可能已接近尾声，逢低布局"跨年"行情。 我们近期发布的《 如何构建"稳市"监测体系？ 》，结合A股历 史经验教训及当前新形势，构建市场"顶部"判别方法论，判断一轮上涨行情的回调是否为阶段性顶部，关键在于市场上涨的底层逻辑是否被破 坏，若底层逻辑未变则更大概率为阶段调整。就本轮行情而言，去年"924"以来的宏观政策转向改变投资者悲观预期，为市场企稳回升的基 础，居民存款资金入市、低利率及"资产荒"以及监管层对资本市场发展的支持提供了良好的环境。我们在《 牛市成因之辩 》和2026年展望《 乘势笃行 》指出，上涨根本驱动力在于国际秩序和产业创新的叙事反转，两者推动中国资产实现重估，目前这两大底层逻辑并未动摇。A股市 场整体估值无论在全球横向对比，还是与大类资产对比仍然具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations from December 15 to 19, with satellite-related and tourism-related ETFs showing significant gains, while cross-border ETFs faced declines. Overall, the ETF market saw a net inflow of over 87 billion yuan, indicating a clear bottom-fishing trend among investors [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance - Satellite-related ETFs and tourism-related ETFs led the gains, with the satellite ETF from E Fund (563530) showing a weekly increase of 7.04%, and tourism ETFs (562510 and 159766) rising by 6.77% and 6.71% respectively [2][3]. - Other notable performers included the satellite industry ETF (159218) and the aerospace ETF (563380), both of which also posted gains above 5% [3]. - Conversely, cross-border ETFs, particularly the Hong Kong information technology ETF and the Sino-Korean semiconductor ETF, experienced significant declines, with the Hong Kong information technology ETF dropping by 5.24% [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows - From December 15 to 19, several broad-based ETFs attracted significant net inflows, with 7 out of the top 10 ETFs by net inflow being broad-based ETFs, including the A500 ETF from E Fund (159361) and the ChiNext ETF (159915) [5][6]. - The A500 ETF from E Fund saw a net inflow of 27 billion yuan, while the ChiNext ETF had a net inflow of 31 billion yuan during the same period [6]. - Cross-border ETFs and innovative bond ETFs also received substantial inflows, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF each exceeding 10 billion yuan in net inflows [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Invesco Great Wall Fund maintains an optimistic outlook for the market, particularly for the equity market, predicting that technology will remain a key focus area [7]. - The fund manager from E Fund suggests a shift from defensive to aggressive positioning, emphasizing the importance of technology indices and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [7].

Core Insights - The satellite-related ETFs and tourism-related ETFs showed strong performance with gains exceeding 6% during the period from December 15 to 19, while cross-border ETFs faced declines [1][7] - The overall market experienced fluctuations, but there was a significant net inflow of over 87 billion yuan into ETFs, indicating a clear bottom-fishing sentiment among investors [8] - Broad-based ETFs attracted the most capital, with seven out of the top ten ETFs by net inflow being broad-based ETFs, including the A500 ETF and the ChiNext ETF [8] Performance Summary - The top-performing ETFs included: - Satellite ETF (E Fund) with a weekly gain of 7.04% and a turnover rate of 146.49% [9] - Tourism ETFs with gains of 6.77% and 6.71% respectively [9] - Other notable performers included the satellite industry ETF and the aerospace ETF, both showing gains above 5% [9] - Conversely, cross-border ETFs, particularly the Hong Kong Information Technology ETF and the S&P Oil & Gas ETF, experienced significant declines, with the Hong Kong Information Technology ETF down by 5.24% [10] Fund Flow Analysis - From December 15 to 19, several broad-based ETFs saw substantial net inflows, with the A500 ETF (E Fund) and the ChiNext ETF leading with net inflows of 27 billion yuan and 31 billion yuan respectively [11] - The inflow into cross-border ETFs and innovative bond ETFs was also notable, with several ETFs in these categories exceeding 10 billion yuan in net inflows [11] Trading Volume Insights - The trading volume for ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index was significantly high, with multiple ETFs achieving average daily trading volumes exceeding 70 billion yuan [12] - The top three ETFs by trading volume included the Hong Kong Securities ETF, A500 ETF (E Fund), and ChiNext ETF, with weekly trading volumes of 520 billion yuan, 290 billion yuan, and 191 billion yuan respectively [12] Market Outlook - Investment firms like Invesco Great Wall Fund maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, particularly in the equity sector, emphasizing technology as a key focus area for future growth [13] - Recommendations include a shift from defensive to aggressive positioning, with a focus on technology indices and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [13]

Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - Recent preparations by professional investors for year-end market trends have been noted, with public funds conducting intensive research on companies such as Zhongke Shuguang, Haiguang Information, Luxshare Precision, Changan Automobile, and others, primarily in the manufacturing sector [1] - Institutions believe that the recent market adjustment will provide better investment opportunities for the upcoming year, with structural market trends making certain underperforming sectors more attractive [1] - Analysts from Penghua Fund and Xingzheng Global Fund express optimism about advanced manufacturing, cyclical stocks, and high-performing non-bank stocks, indicating that the upward market trend remains intact despite short-term fluctuations [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The lithium battery industry is expected to maintain high demand due to the growth in electric vehicle sales and unexpected storage needs, leading to improved profitability across the supply chain [2] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong remains a focus for institutions, with a positive outlook on the industry’s fundamentals and the ongoing trend of innovative drugs going global, which is expected to enhance the upstream supply chain's performance [2] - The commercial aerospace and satellite industry is transitioning from speculative hype to a fundamentals-driven phase, with investment opportunities emerging across the supply chain, particularly in rocket and satellite manufacturing and related applications [3]

光大证券指出，历史来看，A股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情。本周三市场的强力上涨或许标 志着2026年跨年行情已经开启。一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯 实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。另一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极 流入。政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。 行业配置方面，结合往 年规律及当前市场环境，关注成长及消费板块。对于成长板块而言，历史来看，"春季躁动"期间，TMT 及先进制造板块的弹性相对更大；除往年值得关注的成长方向外，本轮行情中消费板块也值得关注。一 方面，当前政策对于消费板块重视程度较高，消费板块有望持续得到政策催化。另一方面，消费板块今 年相对滞涨，或许有望获得部分"踏空"资金的青睐。 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周A股市场出现回暖 受政策催化影响，本周上证指数出现上涨。受利好政策落地、市场情绪回暖等因素影响，本周上证指数出 现上涨，主要宽基指数涨跌分化。在主要宽基指数中，上证50表现最好，涨跌幅为0.3%，而科创50表现最 差，涨跌幅为-3.0%。目前万得全A估值处于2010年以来85.7%分位数。 历史来看，A股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情。由于岁末年初流动性相对充裕，而经济数据相对 缺乏，景气预期短期内无法证伪，叠加对于政策的乐观预期，投资者乐观情绪相对高涨，在多方面因素支 撑下，A股市场每年春季几乎都会存在一轮较好的行情。2012年以来的14年间，除2022年外，共出现过13 次"春季躁动"行情。 央行货币政策调整、重 ...

Core Insights - The third round of bond market adjustments in 2025 may not be over yet, but there is potential for a delayed cross-year market rally if monetary easing expectations increase in January-February 2026 [1][3][27] Group 1: Understanding Recent Adjustments - The current bond market adjustment shows a structural characteristic where ultra-long-term bonds lead the decline, with the 30-year treasury bond reaching a peak yield of 2.28% on December 16, while the 10-year bond primarily experienced a corrective trend [1][11] - The adjustment in ultra-long-term bonds reflects weakened both allocation and trading power, with a significant increase in the supply of bonds over 10 years, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan by December 19, 2025, accounting for 11.66% of total bond issuance [13][19] - The adjustment pattern indicates that the third round may still be ongoing, potentially mirroring the structure of the second round, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating in an adjustment-recovery-adjustment manner [24][25] Group 2: Comparison of Adjustment Rounds - In 2025, there have been three notable rounds of adjustments, with the first round driven by unexpected tightening of the funding environment, leading to a significant rise in short-term rates [2][19] - The second round was characterized by a simultaneous rise in stock prices and a decline in bond prices, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and a reduction in bullish sentiment towards bonds [22] - The third round, starting from November 3, 2025, has shown a different driving force, primarily influenced by institutional behavior and the resumption of bond trading, rather than the funding and stock-bond dynamics that characterized the previous rounds [2][22] Group 3: Cross-Year Market Trends - Historically, the bond market has exhibited a calendar effect around the New Year, often showing upward trends before the Spring Festival, with notable increases in bond yields observed in 2022, 2024, and 2025 [3][26] - The 2025 cross-year market saw a decline of approximately 50 basis points in the 10-year bond yield from T-60 to T-18 days before the Spring Festival, followed by a period of consolidation [3][26] - If the third round of adjustments continues, the potential for a delayed cross-year rally remains, contingent on favorable monetary policy developments [27]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising due to favorable policy implementation and improved market sentiment. The Shanghai 50 Index performed the best with a gain of 0.3%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index saw a decline of 3.0%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is at the 85.7 percentile since 2010 [1][11][12] - The retail, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective gains of 6.7%, 2.9%, and 2.9%. In contrast, the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors lagged behind, with declines of 3.3%, 3.1%, and 1.6% [1][13][19] Group 2 - Historically, the A-share market experiences a "spring rally" almost every year, driven by factors such as abundant liquidity at the year's end and optimistic policy expectations. Since 2012, there have been 13 instances of this rally, excluding 2022 [2][19] - Key catalysts for the spring rally include adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank, the release of important economic data, and significant meetings. These events provide new operational logic and upward momentum for the market [2][19][20] Group 3 - During the "spring rally" period from 2012 to 2025 (excluding 2022), major broad indices like the CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index had average gains of 21.0% and 20.7%, respectively. The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors also performed well, with average gains of 22.2% and 21.3% during the same period [3][21][24] - Specific industries such as computers, non-ferrous metals, and machinery showed strong performance during the "spring rally," with average gains of 24.7%, 23.9%, and 22.7%, respectively [21][26] Group 4 - The 2026 cross-year market is expected to begin, with policies likely to continue supporting growth and various funds expected to flow into the market. This week, a strong market rally may indicate the start of this cross-year trend, particularly following a period of lackluster performance [4][29][30] - The central economic work conference has outlined a focus on maintaining a stable economic environment and promoting domestic demand, which is expected to bolster market confidence and attract long-term capital inflows [28][30] Group 5 - The growth and consumption sectors are highlighted for investment focus, with TMT and advanced manufacturing historically showing greater elasticity during the "spring rally." The current market environment suggests that the consumption sector may also attract attention due to its relatively low performance this year [5][35][42] - The consumption sector has lagged in performance this year, making it a potential target for "missed opportunity" funds. Recent performance indicates that sectors like retail and beauty care are beginning to show stronger gains [5][42][45]