1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A series of financial policies have been introduced by multiple departments to stabilize the market and expectations, including central bank's reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the establishment of special re - loans; financial regulatory agencies' incremental policies for real estate and other fields; and the support for the role of Central Huijin by the CSRC [2][15][16] - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook has increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have also risen [3][18] - The stock market has shown different trends, with A - shares rising in the short - term and the Hong Kong stock market having a mixed performance. The CSRC plans to expand institutional opening and support listed company mergers and acquisitions [35] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 was 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month [1] - The social financing scale increment in March 2025 was 58894 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans of financial institutions in the same month were 36400 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference - Three departments issued a package of financial policies, including the central bank's ten policy measures, the financial regulatory agency's eight incremental policies, and the CSRC's support for Central Huijin [2] - Many regions have implemented the central bank's policy of lowering the provident fund loan interest rate, and Zhuhai has introduced new real - estate policies [2] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged, and the market still expects three interest rate cuts this year [3] 3.3 Main Variety Highlights Metals - By the end of April 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3281.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.1 billion US dollars from the end of March, and the gold reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month [5] - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts for Q2 and Q3 2025, and Argentina's silver production is expected to decline year - on - year [5] Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - As of late April, the price of coking coal remained flat, while the prices of coke and rebar increased [6][7] Energy and Chemicals - Russia's crude oil production in April was below the OPEC + quota, and the US refined fuel oil inventory reached its lowest level since November 2023 [8] - The US crude oil inventory decreased last week, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [8] Agricultural Products - Seven departments jointly issued an implementation plan to improve the overall efficiency of the agricultural science and technology innovation system [12] - The price of rice in Japan has risen for 17 consecutive weeks, and the prices of domestic soybean meal, corn, and wheat have reached new highs [12][13] 3.4 Financial News Compilation Open Market - On May 7, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal of funds was 335.3 billion yuan. Starting from May 8, the central bank adjusted the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate from 1.5% to 1.4% [14] Important News and Information - The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, lowered policy interest rates, and cut the provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points [15][16][17] - The financial regulatory agency will improve the real - estate financing system, and the real - estate market investment value is gradually emerging [16] - The CSRC launched a systematic reform of the public fund industry, aiming to shift from "emphasizing scale" to "emphasizing returns" [20] Bond Market Summary - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of bank - to - bank major interest - rate bonds showed obvious differentiation [27] - The yields of most money market interest rates and various bond - related rates declined [28][29] Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose. The foreign exchange reserves at the end of April 2025 increased, and gold reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month [31][32] 3.5 Stock Market News - A - shares opened higher but then declined under pressure, with the military industry sector performing strongly. The Hong Kong stock market had a mixed performance, with financial stocks relatively strong [35] - The CSRC plans to expand institutional opening and support listed company mergers and acquisitions. The number of new A - share accounts in April decreased but remained stable [35][36] - Some companies have important events, such as Geely's privatization of Zeekr, and Baidu's performance report shows significant revenue growth [37]

昨日国务院新闻办新闻发布会上提到的一系列政策措施，有望保障经济回升向好、股市震荡上行。 一揽子金融政策公布 国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 消费数据表现强劲 "五一"假期，消费和旅游市场再次迎来爆发式增长。据交通运输部统计，全社会跨区域人员流动量 146594万人次，日均29319万人次，较去年同期增长7.9%。据国家移民管理局统计，当期全国边检机关 共保障1089.6万人次中外人员出入境，日均217.9万人次，较去年同期增长28.7%，单日出入境通关最高 峰出现在5月3日，达229.7万人次。无论是国内游还是入境游，都显示了庞大的消费潜力。随着我国对 多国免签政策红利的持续释放，入境游也将成为消费市场的增长点。4月中共中央政治局会议提出"增强 消费对经济增长的拉动作用"，随着外部环境不确定性的加大，扩大内需成为长期战略之举，提振消费 将有力拉动经济回升。 综上所述，一揽子金融政策公布，中美贸易争端也有望缓和，均提振市场风险偏好，预计5月A股运行 重心震荡上移。（作者单位：银河期货） 金融监管总局局长李云泽表示，将推出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of a comprehensive financial policy package by the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize the market and expectations [1][5] - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, aimed at increasing long-term liquidity supply and maintaining abundant market liquidity [2][3] - The reduction in policy interest rates includes a 0.1 percentage point decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the personal housing provident fund loan rate, which is expected to lower overall financing costs and boost market confidence [3][4] Group 2 - The Central Huijin Company is emphasized as a key strategic force in maintaining capital market stability, with the People's Bank of China supporting it in increasing stock market index fund purchases [4][5] - The regulatory authorities plan to expand the pilot scope for long-term insurance fund investments and adjust solvency regulations to encourage insurance companies to increase market participation [6] - Future capital market reforms will focus on enhancing internal stability and supporting high-quality development, with measures to improve the adaptability of the regulatory framework and promote innovation [7]

证券研究报告 固收视角 双降落地，曲线走陡 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 07 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 其次对市场而言，择机或适时降准降息早有预告，本次降准时间和力度基本符合预期。在我们 4 月 18 日开展的问卷调 查中，89%的投资者认为未来三个月会降准。我们也认为降准时机基本成熟。一是当前银行超储率水位不高，中长期 流动性缺口有待补充；二是降准时间间隔已接近历史平均规律，上一次降准是 2024 年 9 月，根据历史规律降准间隔平 均为 4-8 月；三是政府债进入发行高峰，特别国债启动发行，降准有助于稳定资金面。 降息时间略早于预判，但并不意外，幅度为 10BP，低于去年 ...

宣布降息降准、设立服务消费与养老再贷款、完善房地产融资制度、发布公募基金重要改革举措……5月7日上午，三位金融管理部门"一把手"亮相国新办发 布会，推出一揽子金融政策，释放稳市场稳预期的强信号。 卜 " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 0.1个百分点 )由此前 自5月15 下调金融机构存款准备 不含已执行5%存款准 下调汽车金融公司和金 存款准备金率5个百分! 一揽子金融政策聚焦哪些方面？ 发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜"一口气"宣布了3大类10项金融举措，覆盖货币政策诸多方面； 金融监管总局局长李云泽介绍了8项增量政策，涉及房地产金融和险资入市等市场热点； 中国证监会主席吴清围绕持续稳定和活跃资本市场，宣布多项重磅举措…… 当日，中国人民银行宣布自5月8日起，下调个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。以金 ...

Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank announced a comprehensive monetary policy package, including a 50 basis point (bp) reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity[3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10bp to 1.40%, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) also adjusted downwards by 10bp[13] - The new re-lending policies include an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan in quotas, with 300 billion yuan allocated for technological innovation and 500 billion yuan for agriculture and small enterprises[4] Economic Outlook and Market Response - The interest rate cuts were less than previously anticipated, with expectations of 30-40bp reductions over the year, but the first cut was only 10bp, implemented quickly on May 8[2] - The current monetary policy reflects a cautious approach towards external uncertainties, particularly regarding US-China negotiations, leaving room for future adjustments[2] - The bond market showed a steepening yield curve, with short-term rates declining by 1-3bp while long-term rates increased by 1-3bp, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[7] Structural Support and Future Implications - The meeting emphasized the importance of structural monetary tools, with a focus on supporting consumption and technological innovation, indicating a shift from broad-based measures to targeted interventions[5] - The central bank's actions are seen as preemptive measures against external shocks, suggesting that the recent cuts may only be the beginning of a broader easing cycle rather than a conclusive end[5] - The emphasis on long-term capital market support aims to stabilize market expectations and prevent prolonged downturns, with a focus on enhancing the participation of institutional investors[9]

5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，人民银行将推出三类十项政策。其中，十项政策主要包括降 低存款准备金率0.5个百分点；阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目 前的5%调降为0%；下调政策利率0.1个百分点；下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分 点；降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，五年期以上首套房贷款利率从2.85%降至 2.6%等内容。 第一类是数量型政策，主要通过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充 裕；第二类是价格型政策，主要包括下调政策利率、降低结构性货币政策工具的利率以及调 降公积金贷款利率；第三类是结构性政策，旨在完善现有结构性货币政策工具，并创设新的 政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 十项措施主要包括降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点；阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司 的存款准备金率从目前的5%调降为0%；下调政策利率0.1个百分点；下调结构性货币政策工 具利率0.25个百分点；降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，五年期以上首套房贷款 利率从2.85%降至 ...

5月7日上午，央行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清在国新办发布会上介绍"一 揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。发布会上推出多项重磅政策，涉及货币政策、金 融监管、资本市场、外贸等热点内容。 当天下午，多家券商研究所火速解读，认为在内需压力与外部不确定性仍有待评估的背景下，"一行一局一 会"出台了全面、清晰、务实的一揽子金融支持政策，释放出强烈的宏观调控信号，亦充分体现出中央对宏观 经济形势的精准认知，有利于维持A股短期风险偏好。 降准降息如约而至 在上午的新闻发布会上，降准降息正式落地。国泰海通宏观研究团队表示，央行发布三大类10项货币政策组 合，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发力，对 实体和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期预计将延续，接下来如 果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 "数量型政策加大中长期流动性供给，稳定市场信心，价格型政策降低融资成本，激发实体活力，结构性政策 聚焦重点领域，定向发力提质增效。"东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲进一步指出，从总量宽松逻辑看，"适 ...

Monetary Policy - The central bank implemented a comprehensive monetary policy with a total reduction of 50 basis points in reserve requirement ratios, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity and save banks about 22 billion yuan in funding costs[1] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 10 basis points, with the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) expected to decrease by the same margin on the next pricing date[1] Structural Policies - Targeted reserve requirement reductions were made for auto finance and financial leasing companies, bringing their reserve ratios down to 0%, aimed at boosting auto consumption credit[1] - The interest rate on structural monetary policy tools, including the PSL, was reduced by 25 basis points, potentially saving banks around 15-20 billion yuan annually[1] Support for Innovation - The meeting announced an increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technological transformation to 800 billion yuan, alongside the establishment of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds[1] - The central bank's support for technology innovation now extends from indirect financing to direct financing, marking a significant policy shift[3] Economic Outlook - The report indicates a need for continued monetary easing due to an unbalanced economic recovery, with both CPI and PPI remaining in negative territory, and a focus on stabilizing social financing conditions[6] - The external environment, particularly the impact of U.S. tariffs, is expected to enhance the likelihood of a more accommodative global policy stance, providing a favorable window for further monetary easing in China[6] Market Stability Measures - The policies aim to stabilize the stock and real estate markets, with specific measures to support capital market activity and ensure liquidity for real estate financing[7] - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance and utilization of fiscal tools, coinciding with a peak in government bond supply in the second quarter[8]

国债期货日报 | 2025-05-07 中美摩擦与政策观望期内，国债期货涨跌分化 核心观点 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议指出将实施更加积极的财政政策，今年赤字率拟4%， 一般公共预算支出规模29.7万亿元；拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元，今年 合计新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元；实施适度宽松的货币政策。 2）通胀：3月CPI同比下降0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-05-06，央行以固定利率1.5%、数量招标方式开展了4050亿元7天的逆回购操作，操作利 率为1.5%。（4）货币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.702%、1.707%、1.737% 和1.732%，回 购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-05-06，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.31元、106.06元、109.05元、120.97元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为-0.06%、-0.04%、0.00%和 0.11%。（7）TS、TF、T和TL净基差均值分别为-0.032 元、-0.055元、-0.1 ...