Market Overview - The enthusiasm for property launches has increased, with 79 projects in key cities of East China, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Suzhou, offering 6,259 units, a month-on-month increase of 87.5% [1] - In Shanghai, 31 projects launched a total of 3,429 units, with over 70% of the offerings being entry-level and upgrade products [2] Shanghai Highlights - The Bund Rui Fu project launched on September 14, 2025, with 119 units sold at an average price of 147,800 yuan per square meter, achieving a 100% sales rate on the opening day [5][7] - The Zhongjian Jiu Shang Lang Chen project launched on September 21, 2025, with 140 units sold at an average price of 146,800 yuan per square meter, also achieving a 100% sales rate [8][10] Hangzhou Highlights - Hangzhou's market is experiencing a seasonal uptick, with 45 projects launching 2,437 units and an average absorption rate of 64% [12] - The Greentown Lixiangting project launched on August 26, 2025, with 94 units sold at an average price of 54,104 yuan per square meter, achieving a 100% sales rate [16][18] Suzhou Highlights - In Suzhou, three projects launched a total of 393 units, with a focus on new developments [24] - The Longhu Dongwu Yuanzhu project launched on September 20, 2025, with 147 units at an average price of 34,000 yuan per square meter, achieving a 48% sales rate [27][29] Upcoming Projects - Several notable projects are scheduled for launch in the coming month across Shanghai and Hangzhou, with varying price points and product types [38][40]

近期，美国原油库存下降，同时市场担心俄罗斯能源供应受限，油价整体震荡反弹，WTI原油期货价格 站上65美元／桶大关，油制聚乙烯再次出现亏损情况。截至9月29日当周，在聚乙烯4种原材料工艺中， 除了煤制工艺仍有利润之外，其他工艺均处于亏损状态，占比最高的油制聚乙烯亏损超过500元／吨， 成本支撑作用有望体现。 目前聚乙烯基本面多空交织，虽然需求端利多并未兑现，但是计划外检修装置增多，供应端压力也明显 缓解，基本抵消需求端利空。展望后市，国庆假期后需求端仍有较大改善空间，成本支撑也逐渐增强， 预计聚乙烯价格继续下行空间不大。另外，化工"反内卷"政策有望落地，届时聚乙烯有望逐渐改变弱势 局面。 三季度，受"反内卷"推动，商品价格整体止跌反弹。不过，聚乙烯表现欠佳，尤其是进入"金九"传统旺 季，需求未有实质性改善，价格不涨反跌，最低一度逼近7000元／吨大关。虽然需求表现不及预期，但 是供应压力也未体现，聚乙烯价格未出现深跌，整体呈现弱势震荡走势。 "金九银十"是聚乙烯传统需求旺季。目前，旺季已过半，但聚乙烯旺季特征并不明显。今年聚乙烯农膜 需求普遍推迟，尤其是国庆节长假临近，下游备货积极性不高，仅维持保障节假日生产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]

Group 1 - The introduction of new housing policies in Shenzhen on September 5 has led to an increase in market activity, with a notable rise in both new and second-hand property transactions despite a slight decline in second-hand sales due to typhoon weather [1][2] - As of September 28, the total number of new residential units sold in Shenzhen reached 1,482, while second-hand residential transactions totaled 4,323, indicating a robust market despite some fluctuations [1][2] - Real estate agents report a significant increase in decision-making speed and confidence among buyers with clear demands, although prices in the second-hand market remain relatively stable [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in second-hand housing prices over the past four years has made homeownership more accessible to previously unaffordable buyers, driving up transaction volumes [2] - The new policies are expected to create a positive cycle in the housing market, facilitating the transition from second-hand to new homes, particularly for buyers looking to upgrade [2] - The recent policy changes have led to a 35% increase in new home purchases in the 23 days following the policy implementation compared to the previous 23 days, and a 75% increase compared to the same period in August [2] Group 3 - Nationally, the new housing market has remained stable since 2025, but there has been a slight decline in sales since the second quarter, with September showing signs of recovery due to improved supply [3] - The second-hand housing market continues to operate on a "price for volume" basis, with key cities seeing a year-on-year increase in transaction numbers for the first three quarters [3]

金价高企下还会有金九银十吗？ "基于金价波动，我们会密切留意及评估，并适时作出价格调整。"周大福方面今日回复记者。 今年三四月，周大福也调整了一轮部分产品的报价。根据公司方面的反馈，调价是基于过去多个月以来 金价的变化，为了支持毛利保持韧性。 这两年国际金价一路上扬，水涨船高之下，不少连锁品牌金店的一口价产品皆有不同程度的调价。 "去年国庆节金价还在8字打头，今年挂牌的克价已经破1100元了。"记者日前走访沪上一些金店时从一 些柜台的销售处了解到。 从最新的挂牌报价来看，9月29日，国内部分黄金珠宝品牌金饰价格继续上涨。具体来看，周生生足金 饰品报价1111元/克，周大福、六福珠宝的足金首饰价格为1108元/克。 金价的一路走高，今年9月下旬开始，周大福、周生生、老庙等国内主流的黄金珠宝品牌商就开始酝酿 上调"一口价"黄金饰品的价格。 今年年初曾引发排队购金热潮的老铺黄金（06181.HK）从去年开始已经涨过多轮。可查询的公开信息 显示，该品牌旗下产品分别在2024年3月、9月进行过两次涨价。今年2月、8月老铺黄金再度上调了黄金 产品价格。 前述多家金店销售向记者表示，下个月就要涨价，最近还有每克立减的活动， ...

Core Insights - The new real estate policies in Shanghai, known as "沪六条," have been implemented to stimulate the housing market, allowing for more flexible purchasing options for families and individuals [1][2] Policy Changes - The "沪六条" includes six specific measures: unlimited home purchases for eligible families outside the outer ring, single adults treated as resident families for housing purchase policies, the ability to use public housing funds for down payments, no differentiation in mortgage rates for first and second homes, and improvements to personal housing property tax policies [1] Market Response - The implementation of the new policies has led to a noticeable increase in transaction volumes. From August 26 to September 25, second-hand home transactions reached 21,127 units, a month-on-month increase of 8%, while new home transactions totaled 9,984 units, up 37% [2][16] - The luxury home market in Shanghai has seen significant activity, with projects like "金陵华庭" and "中建玖上琅宸" selling out on their opening days, indicating strong demand [3][11] Price Trends - New home prices in Shanghai have shown a slight increase of 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices have continued to decline, down 1% [6][7] - The luxury segment is particularly strong, with high-end projects achieving rapid sales, suggesting a positive market sentiment towards premium properties [12][13] Second-Hand Market Dynamics - The second-hand market is gradually recovering, with transaction volumes breaking the 1,000-unit mark multiple times since the policy changes. The total number of second-hand home transactions in September has surpassed 18,000 units, reflecting a 34% year-on-year increase [16][17] - The outer ring areas have benefited significantly from the policy changes, with transaction volumes and new listings increasing substantially [18][20] Future Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest that the positive effects of the new policies may continue through the traditional sales season of "金九银十," with expectations of sustained demand in the luxury and mid-range segments [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of repair, the inventory at pulp ports and the number of warehouse receipts have no obvious reduction, and pulp futures are oscillating. It is recommended to consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread [5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, 2025, SP2601 was 5272, down 0.79% day - on - day and 0.83% week - on - week; SP2511 was 5016, down 0.87% day - on - day and 0.04% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5296, down 0.60% day - on - day and 0.71% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4220, unchanged [5] - **Foreign Offer Prices**: In September 2025, the offer price of Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; the offer price of a certain unnamed variety was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; the offer price of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend [5] - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, paper product prices have no obvious rebound, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5] 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 26, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 184, with a quantile level of 0.897; the Silver Star basis was 634, with a quantile level of 0.877 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 26, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 71, with a quantile level of 0.497; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 124, with a quantile level of 0.523 [5] 3.4 Strategy - Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread as the pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and warehouse receipt numbers have no obvious reduction, with pulp futures oscillating [6]

Core Insights - The automotive market in September 2025 is characterized by intense competition among over 30 brands launching more than 40 new models, marking an unprecedented peak in the "golden September" sales period [2][3] - The release of new vehicles is driven by traditional promotional strategies, including product updates and pricing marketing, aimed at stimulating consumer demand [2][4] - The upcoming expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption at the end of 2025 is creating a sense of urgency among automakers to attract consumers before the policy changes [4][5] Industry Dynamics - The market is segmented into three main camps: joint venture brands, independent brands, and new forces in car manufacturing, with a focus on diverse powertrains including electric, hybrid, and fuel vehicles [3][4] - Audi's new model, the E5 Sportback, achieved over 10,153 orders within 30 minutes of its launch, indicating strong consumer interest and demand [3] - The launch of new models is strategically timed to coincide with the National Day holiday, which is traditionally a peak period for automotive sales [2][4] Technological Advancements - The competition is increasingly centered around technological innovations, particularly in smart features and driving assistance systems [5][6] - Audi's E5 Sportback features advanced technology such as the AUDI OS operating system and Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chip, showcasing a commitment to integrating cutting-edge technology [5] - Lynk & Co's new models are equipped with advanced driving assistance systems and smart cockpit technology, reflecting the industry's shift towards enhanced user experience [5][6] Pricing Strategies - Pricing remains a critical factor in the success of new vehicle launches, with companies emphasizing the importance of value perception among consumers [6][7] - Lynk & Co's pricing strategy aims to maintain profitability while minimizing post-launch price fluctuations to enhance customer satisfaction [6] - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a focus on "value for money" and personalized consumer experiences, as brands seek to differentiate themselves in a crowded market [7][8]

Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The soda ash market has a fundamental surplus problem. Although the inventory of manufacturers has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium - term, the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern, and the market may face further pressure without actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is recommended to operate with a short - selling idea [1]. - The glass market has seen rumors about glass enterprises' meetings pushing up the market sentiment. The spot market transaction has become stronger before the festival, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas remains high. In the long - term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply dilemma [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - related prices and spreads -华北报价 rose from 1210 to 1220, an increase of 0.83%;华东报价 rose from 1290 to 1320, an increase of 2.33%;华中 and华南 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 12.14% [1]. Soda ash - related prices and spreads -华北,华东,华中, and西北 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 19.23% [1]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased from 87.29% to 85.53%, a decrease of 2.02%; the weekly soda ash output decreased from 76.11 tons to 74.57 tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real estate data - The new - construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - or short - side contradictions. Due to capital risk - aversion, the trading atmosphere is relatively cautious, and the rubber price may fluctuate and consolidate. In the future, the supply may be affected by weather conditions such as typhoons and the possible occurrence of La Nina phenomenon. The demand faces export pressure, and the domestic sales pressure may increase. It is expected that the short - term rubber price will fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 to 16,500 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber decreased by 0.34%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged, the price of cup rubber increased by 0.20%, and the price of glue decreased by 0.90%. The prices of some raw materials in Hainan decreased [3]. Monthly spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 36.36%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 25.00% [3]. Fundamental data - In July, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed, with Thailand increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia increasing by 12.09%, and India decreasing by 2.17%. The production in China decreased slightly. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, the domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and the tire export quantity decreased by 5.46%. The total import quantity of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber in August increased by 4.76% [3]. Inventory changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased by 3.07%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [3]. Report on Logs 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The log market is in a volatile pattern, with a relatively low trading volume. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the daily average shipment volume has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. Due to the poor willingness of buyers to take delivery and the suppression of the selling hedging disk on the market, there is a lack of strong upward momentum. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and spot prices - The prices of some log futures contracts fluctuated. The prices of spot logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign - market quotes also remained unchanged [4]. Cost: Import cost calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased slightly [4]. Supply: Monthly - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% [4]. Inventory: Main ports (weekly) - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 3.31%, with the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreasing [4]. Demand: Daily average outbound volume (weekly) - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 5%, with the volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [4]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The supply is expected to reach a high level in October, and then narrow in November. The increase in the cost of the flat - dry season in the southwest region brings positive sentiment to the market. In the short - term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,000 and 9,500 yuan per ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis of the main contract - The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis of some products changed. For example, the basis of (SI4210 benchmark) increased by 61.29% [5]. Monthly spreads - The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 100.00% [5]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The national and regional industrial silicon productions increased, with the national production increasing by 14.01%. The productions of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 3.56% [5]. Inventory changes - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the social inventory remained unchanged [5]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On the fundamental side, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream components is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that the polysilicon price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, the actual operating rate and production - reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The average prices of some polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 8.44% [6]. Futures prices and monthly spreads - The main contract price increased by 0.19%, and the spreads between some contracts changed, such as the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreasing by 130.00% [6]. Fundamental data (weekly) - The silicon wafer production decreased by 1.01%, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.32% [6]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume decreased by 9.63%, the export volume increased by 40.12%, and the net export volume increased by 94.25%. The silicon wafer production, import volume, export volume, and net export volume all increased [6]. Inventory changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 10.78%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.79% [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that methanol futures have rebounded from low levels, but high port inventories continue to suppress prices in the short term [1] - Domestic methanol prices have slightly decreased due to weak port market conditions, while coal prices have rebounded, narrowing the profit margin for coal-based methanol to around 400 yuan/ton, although this remains historically high [1] - The total maintenance scale for methanol is approximately 9.5 million tons per year, with non-integrated facility maintenance amounting to about 7 million tons per year after excluding synchronized maintenance capacities [1] Group 2 - In Iran, the Kimiya methanol facility is operating at reduced capacity due to technical issues, while other facilities are functioning normally, resulting in a daily production of 35,000 tons, which is still sufficient to meet export demands to China [1] - Speculation about potential early gas supply restrictions in Iran has arisen due to maintenance issues at the Kimiya facility, which could marginally reduce methanol imports to China [1] - International methanol plant operating rates have begun to decline, but external market inventories remain high, and terminal demand continues to be weak [2] Group 3 - The production profits for downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have recovered above the breakeven line, indicating an overall industry nearing breakeven [2] - The upcoming winter season is expected to bring additional fuel demand for methanol, although this demand will take time to materialize [2] - The MTO facilities in Central Plains and Zhejiang have restarted, but the overall performance of downstream products remains weak, limiting operational enthusiasm among MTO enterprises [3] Group 4 - The port inventory accumulation continues to negatively impact methanol prices, while the overall economic conditions remain weak, affecting MTO enterprises' operational decisions [3] - Despite the opening of arbitrage opportunities from ports to inland areas, the reality of weak performance persists due to high port inventories [3] - The market for methanol is currently in a state of contention between weak realities and strong expectations, suggesting a cautious approach to trading strategies [3]