今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】据Mysteel，截至9月25日当周，螺纹钢产 量206.46万吨，较上周增加0.01万吨；厂库164.41万吨，较上 周减少0.66万吨，降幅0.4%；社库471.89万吨，较上周减少 13.32万吨，降幅2.75%；表需220.44万吨，较上周增加10.41万 吨，增幅4.96%。评：当前处于传统的"金九银十"阶段，但上 游煤钢之争加剧，焦企在国庆节前首轮提涨，目前钢厂落实缓 慢；铁水产量延续回升；下游房地产弱现实与政策预期并存， 短期期现价格更多容易受到宏观市场情绪影响。综合来看，螺 纹钢相对低估值的情况下，基本面短期大跌可能性偏低，建议 逢低做多为主。 【短评-原油】英国石油公司周四在其《2025年能源展望》 报告中表示，将其对全球石油需求峰值的预测从2025年推迟至 2030年。在"当前轨迹"情景下，全球石油需求量预计到2030 年将达到每日1.034亿桶，到2050年降至每日8300万桶。俄罗斯 副总理诺瓦克周四表示，俄罗斯将在年底前对柴油出口实施部 分禁令，并延长目前对汽油出口的禁令，8月份原油加工量降至 约510万桶/日，随后在9月份进一步降至约49 ...

有色金属日报 2025-9-26 铜 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国就业和耐用品数据偏强，美元指数反弹，铜价冲高回落，周四伦铜收跌 0.43%至 10275 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收 82380 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 350 至 144425 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 贴水 31.4 美元/吨。国内电铜社会库存较周一减少 0.4 万吨，保税 ...

【螺纹钢低估值下短期大跌可能性偏低，有望企稳反弹】本周螺纹钢总库存636.3万吨，小幅去库13.98 万吨；表需低于近三年同期，但逐步改善。当前处于"金九银十"阶段，上游煤钢之争加剧，焦企节前首 轮提涨，钢厂落实缓慢。 日均铁水产量环比增0.47万吨至241.02万吨，延续回升。下游房地产弱现实与 政策预期并存，期现价格易受宏观情绪影响。 分析师认为，螺纹钢低估值下基本面短期大跌可能性 低，市场对后市政策利多预期发酵，若出台落实基建措施，有望企稳反弹，主力在2980 - 3000大关之上 轻仓低位埋伏更有性价比。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Insights - The high-end residential market in Shanghai remains robust during the "Golden September" period, with multiple projects achieving sold-out status on their opening days [1][2] - Notable projects include Jinling Huating, which achieved sales of 9.843 billion yuan, and Zhongjian·Jiu Shang Lang Chen, with sales of 3.298 billion yuan [1][2] - The overall sales performance of high-end residential projects indicates strong demand and a positive market response [8] Project Performance - Jinling Huating's second phase attracted 227 effective clients with a subscription rate of approximately 189%, offering 120 units at an average price of 205,000 yuan per square meter [2][3] - The project saw a price increase of over 8% from its first phase, with total sales from both phases reaching 19.077 billion yuan [2] - Zhongjian·Jiu Shang Lang Chen's first phase sold 140 units at an average price of 146,800 yuan per square meter, with a subscription rate of 159% [2][3] Market Trends - The Shanghai new housing market has seen 20 projects launched in September, with five achieving "daylight" sales, indicating strong buyer interest [3][4] - High-quality products are crucial for the success of these high-end residential projects, as they cater to the needs of affluent buyers [3][8] - Upcoming projects, including those from Poly Development and Jianfa Real Estate, are expected to continue this trend, with several high-priced units set to enter the market [4][6][7] Developer Strategies - Developers are employing aggressive pricing strategies to attract buyers, as seen with Jianfa Real Estate's promotional discounts [7] - The rapid development and market entry of projects like Dahuazhi's Jing'an Nianhua demonstrate a strategic focus on capitalizing on favorable market conditions [6][8] - The performance of high-end projects is expected to boost market confidence and encourage further investment in core urban areas [8]

Core Viewpoint - The temporary shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine, the second largest in the world, due to a mudslide incident has led to a significant increase in global copper prices, with expectations of further tightening in copper supply [1][2]. Supply Tightening - The Grasberg mine's shutdown is expected to reduce copper and gold production in the short term, with a projected 4% decrease in copper sales and a 6% decrease in gold sales for Freeport in Q3 [2]. - The copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RC) have dropped to negative levels, indicating a tightening supply situation, with current domestic processing fees at approximately -40 USD/ton [3][4]. - The global copper market has been facing supply constraints due to insufficient investment and declining ore grades, leading to a rapid tightening of copper concentrate supply [4]. Demand Outlook - Despite supply constraints, the demand for copper is expected to remain strong in both the short and long term, driven by the energy transition and increased usage in various industries [7]. - The traditional demand peak period of "Golden September and Silver October" is anticipated to support copper prices, with recent data showing an increase in operating rates for copper rod production [8]. Price Expectations - Analysts are generally optimistic about copper prices, predicting that they will maintain an upward trend due to the combination of supply constraints and recovering demand [10]. - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices may reach 12,000 USD/ton by 2026, while Goldman Sachs has raised its price expectations for copper to 10,000 USD/ton in 2026 and 10,750 USD/ton in 2027 [7].

国家统计局数据显示，8月杭州新房价格环比上涨0.4％，同比上涨2.6％；二手房价格环比下跌0.1％，同比下跌2.1％。虽然杭州二手房价格出现五连跌，但 跌幅有所收窄。 受高温天气影响，8月杭州楼市整体并未出现好转。据潮新闻美好生活研究院统计，8月，杭州市区（含富阳、临安）共成交二手房6633套，环比下滑 7.4%，同比下滑0.88%。据我爱我家数据显示，单价2万元/㎡以下的住宅成交占比达到33.6%，较年初上升超过7个百分点，与去年全年的25%相比大幅提升 8.6个百分点，当下依然是刚需为主导的市场。从各城区成交均价前十榜单中可以看出，成交均价超过10万元/㎡的小区只有绿城桃花源与柳岸晓风，相比之 前，当前顶豪市场热度有所回落。 进入9月，市场依然未有大起色，成交量再次下滑。据潮新闻美好生活研究院统计，截至9月23日，杭州市区二手房成交量仅有4200套左右。如果按照当前日 均180余套走量的话，预计9月杭州二手房成交量有可能在5500套左右。 潮新闻记者从未来科技城、朝晖、申花、钱江世纪城与望江一带的中介了解到，整体带看量并未出现下滑，反而有所上升，但增长并不明显。从成交的房源 来看，大部分房源都是降价成交的 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market continues to rebound with support from the 20 - day moving average. The price of nickel ore is firm, and freight rates are stable with a slight increase. The price of nickel - iron rises slightly, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless - steel inventory is falling, and the "Golden September and Silver October" period has seen good inventory reduction. New - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installation of ternary batteries is declining, with limited boost to nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2511 contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel is flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore and freight rates are firm, and the price of nickel - iron is rising steadily, with a firm cost line. Stainless - steel inventory is falling, and the "Golden September and Silver October" period has seen good inventory reduction. The 2511 contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Overview** - **镍**: On September 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450 yuan, up 500 yuan from the previous day; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,650 yuan, up 500 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 121,600 yuan, up 500 yuan; and the price of nickel beans was 123,750 yuan, up 500 yuan. The price of the Shanghai nickel futures main contract was 121,450 yuan, up 540 yuan, and the price of LME nickel was 15,435 US dollars, up 95 US dollars [11]. - **不锈钢**: On September 24, the average price of stainless steel was 14,012.5 yuan, and the price of the stainless - steel futures main contract was 12,895 yuan, up 5 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled coils in major regions remained unchanged [11]. **Inventory** - **镍**: As of September 24, LME nickel inventory was 230,586 tons, an increase of 132 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 24,971 tons, a decrease of 493 tons. The total inventory was 255,557 tons, a decrease of 361 tons [14]. - **不锈钢**: As of September 19, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,200 tons, in Foshan was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a decrease of 25,400 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 617,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons. On September 24, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 88,233 tons, a decrease of 775 tons [18][19]. **Raw Material Prices** - **镍矿**: On September 24, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [21]. - **镍铁**: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 955.5 yuan per nickel point, unchanged; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,450 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [21]. **Cost** - **不锈钢 production cost**: The traditional production cost was 13,165 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,511 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,859 yuan [23]. - **Nickel import cost**: The converted import price was 124,350 yuan per ton [26]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive factors**: The "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost expectation, the anti - involution policy, and the cost line support at 120,000 yuan [6]. - **Negative factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; the installation volume of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [6].

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属日报 2025-9-25 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 美联储议息会议表态偏鹰，短期情绪面相对承压，但若降息进程推进，市场情绪预计不会明显受抑。 产业上看铜原料供应紧张预期再次强化，自由港公司因 Grasberg 矿山事故显著下调该矿山四季度和 2026 年产量。当前尽管旺季需求表现一般，不过长假临近下游仍有一定的备货需求。短期铜价预计 延续偏强。 铝 【行情资讯】 周三伦铝下探回升，收盘涨 0.32%至 2654 美元/吨，沪铝主力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global copper price has surged due to the temporary shutdown of the world's second-largest copper mine, exacerbating existing supply tightness in the market [1][2]. Supply Tightness - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has been temporarily halted due to a mudslide accident, leading to a projected 4% decrease in copper sales and a 6% decrease in gold sales for Freeport in Q3 [2][3]. - The ongoing supply tightness in copper has been a significant issue for the global market, driven by factors such as insufficient investment and declining ore grades, with processing fees for copper concentrate dropping to negative levels [4]. - The current processing fee for copper concentrate in China is approximately -40 USD/ton, indicating a continued tightening of supply [3][4]. Demand Outlook - Despite supply constraints, the demand for copper is expected to remain strong in both the short and long term, driven by the energy transition and increased usage in various industries [7]. - The traditional consumption peak period, "Golden September and Silver October," is anticipated to support demand, with recent data showing an increase in operating rates for copper rod production [8]. Price Forecast - Analysts are generally optimistic about copper prices, with expectations of a cautious recovery in 2026 and potential price increases driven by demand from the defense and renewable energy sectors [7][10]. - The current macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's shift towards a rate-cutting cycle, is expected to further support copper prices, reinforcing the trend of rising prices amid weak supply and strong demand [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cement stocks in Hong Kong experienced a significant rise, led by a nearly 19% increase in Shanshui Cement, attributed to a slight increase in national cement prices due to the traditional peak season and improved market demand [1][2] - China Galaxy Securities noted that this week, national cement prices saw a slight increase, primarily due to the current entry into the traditional peak season, with cement companies actively pushing for price increases [1] - The market demand has shown some recovery, although it remains weaker compared to the same period last year, and some clinker production lines are still in a state of suspension, which has not yet put pressure on the companies' clinker inventories [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is expected to continue to grow, but the increase is anticipated to be limited due to weak terminal market conditions [1] - There is an expectation of a longer period of staggered production suspensions during the winter, combined with the current marginal improvement in demand, which suggests that cement companies will continue to actively push for price increases [1] - Additionally, there is an expectation of rising coal prices, which will further support cement prices [1]