Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have started a noticeable rebound due to a weakening dollar, influenced by changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and rising inflation indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data has tempered expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts, with traders now anticipating only one 25 basis point adjustment in September [1]. - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July recorded its fastest month-on-month growth since 2022, indicating rising price pressures [1]. - Consumer inflation expectations have increased, with one-year expectations rising from 4.5% to 4.9% and five-year expectations from 3.4% to 3.9% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The confirmation of the U.S. sovereign credit rating as "AA+/A-1+" by S&P Global, despite high structural deficits and debt levels, has temporarily enhanced the dollar's attractiveness [2]. - The geopolitical landscape has shifted with Russian President Putin agreeing to a peace summit with Ukrainian President Zelensky, which may reduce the safe-haven demand for gold [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently hovering around $3,340, facing support between $3,290 and $3,268, with a potential drop below this range leading to further declines [5]. - Key resistance levels are identified between $3,430 and $3,452, with a breakthrough potentially pushing prices towards the $3,500 mark [5]. - The balance of bullish and bearish forces in the gold market is currently in flux, with upcoming Federal Reserve signals and global economic data expected to significantly influence short-term price movements [5].

Group 1 - The fundamental attributes of gold are scarcity and safe-haven appeal, with the former being a physical property and the latter an emotional one. Despite annual mining, the incremental supply is only 1% of the total stock, making it difficult to influence international gold prices. The safe-haven attribute is the key factor determining gold price fluctuations [1] - Recent geopolitical events, such as the end of conflicts between Israel and Iran, and Thailand and Cambodia, have reduced the number of events that can trigger market risk aversion. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is also approaching a resolution, with expectations of a peace agreement becoming mainstream in the market [1] - The latest gold price is around $3,338, which is only $161 away from its historical high of $3,499. However, this resilience is primarily attributed to the decline of the US dollar index rather than its safe-haven property [1][2] Group 2 - Since Trump's presidency, aggressive domestic and foreign policies have caused anxiety and disappointment among Wall Street and global financial institutions, leading to capital flight from the US and a significant drop in the dollar index. The dollar index peaked at 110.18 in January but has since fallen to a low of 96.37, remaining below the 100 mark [2] - Technically, gold has been in a converging triangle consolidation pattern since April 22, with the right side of the triangle becoming increasingly narrow, indicating a potential breakout. A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could increase the likelihood of a downward breakout for gold. However, recent rebound waves suggest that bulls are still making efforts, and if the dollar index remains weak, gold may still have the potential for an upward breakout [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by a stronger US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with a key focus on Chairman Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium [1][3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a primary driver of gold price fluctuations, with market uncertainty surrounding Powell's speech at Jackson Hole [3] - There is an 85% probability that traders expect a 25 basis point rate cut in September, influenced by the higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) in July [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors are subtly impacting gold's safe-haven appeal, particularly with President Trump's comments on the Ukraine conflict and potential peace negotiations [4] - If peace talks progress, global risk sentiment may improve, reducing gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, while any breakdown in negotiations could reignite risk aversion and support gold prices [4] - The interplay of geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy creates a complex environment for gold, with recent easing of geopolitical tensions providing temporary relief for bearish positions [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][58]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Short-term drivers are expected to be weak, with gold prices likely to fluctuate. As of August 15, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 2.21% to $3,381.7 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.6% to 965.36 tons. The U.S. July CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%. The impact of U.S. tariff policies is gradually becoming evident. In the medium term, interest rate cut expectations may anchor gold prices, while long-term macro uncertainties continue to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes, leading to an expected upward trend in gold prices [4][5][7]. - Industrial Metals: The downstream consumption peak season is approaching, and the fundamental support is strengthening. As of August 15, LME copper futures fell by 0.1% to $9,760 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 125,600 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons. The LME copper inventory stood at 155,800 tons. The import copper concentrate index reported -$37.68 per ton. The demand side is expected to enter a destocking cycle as domestic consumption gradually recovers. The macro environment remains supportive for copper prices due to a weaker dollar [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term, with macro uncertainties supporting long-term upward trends [4][5]. 2. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The domestic demand is gradually recovering, with a tight supply of copper concentrate. The medium to long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive [6][7]. - **Aluminum**: As of August 15, LME aluminum futures fell by 0.5% to $2,603 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 588,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. The short-term demand for aluminum is relatively weak due to seasonal factors, but medium-term price trends are expected to be strong due to supply-demand dynamics [6][7]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum Co., and for aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted [7][56].

Group 1 - International gold prices showed little change on August 15, with spot gold rising by 0.01% to $3,335.28 per ounce, and a weekly decline of 1.86% [1] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.04% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 3.14% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices in China varied, with several brands reducing their prices by 6 yuan per gram to 1,002 yuan per gram, while others like Chow Sang Sang increased by 2 yuan to 1,005 yuan per gram [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin has influenced gold prices, with a nearly 2% drop in spot gold prior to the meeting as investors anticipated positive outcomes [3][4] - Analysts suggest that if the meeting results in significant progress, the safe-haven appeal of gold may diminish, while failure to achieve substantial outcomes could lead to a rise in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - The World Gold Council reported that in July, global physical gold ETF inflows reached $3.2 billion, continuing a trend of inflows driven by international markets, with total assets under management increasing to $386 billion [4]

Group 1: Current Market Performance - As of August 12, 2025, several well-known domestic jewelry brands have seen gold prices drop below 1000 yuan per gram, marking the entry into the "three-digit era" [1] - The current lowest price is from Zhou Shiliufu at 988 yuan per gram, with other brands like Lao Miao Huangjin at 1004 yuan, Zhou Dafu at 1008 yuan, and Zhou Shengsheng at 1010 yuan, reflecting a cumulative decline of over 4% from the July peak of approximately 1039 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: International Gold Price Trends - On August 11, international spot gold prices fell by 2.5%, dropping below 3350 USD per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly three months [2] Group 3: Reasons for Price Decline - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% and signals of uncertainty regarding a September rate cut have weakened expectations for monetary easing [3] - A significant increase in the US dollar index, which rose by 1% over the week to reach a new high since May, has pressured gold prices denominated in dollars [3] - A decrease in safe-haven demand due to the EU and US reaching a trade framework agreement and a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums [4] - Domestic gold jewelry consumption has plummeted by 26% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with high gold prices suppressing demand for weddings and other essential purchases [5] Group 4: Recommendations for Consumers and Investors - For essential consumers (e.g., weddings, gifts), it is advised to prioritize simpler designs with lower processing fees and to monitor wholesale markets for better pricing [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate risks and to opt for bank gold bars with lower premiums, while avoiding high-premium traditional gold products due to their volatility [7] Group 5: Future Price Outlook - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to continue, influenced by the Federal Reserve's September policy decisions and the progress of US-China negotiations [8] - Long-term fundamentals remain intact, with global central banks increasing gold purchases by 14% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and ongoing debt risks supporting gold's safe-haven appeal [8]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals experienced a sudden surge in prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weak U.S. non-farm data, and geopolitical risks, providing strong support for gold [7]. Price Movements - As of 15:38, NYMEX palladium rose by 1.73%, NYMEX platinum increased by 1.72%, spot silver expanded its gains to 1%, and spot gold rose approximately 0.8% to $3395 per ounce [3][4]. - COMEX gold was reported at $3466 per ounce, reflecting a 0.73% increase [5]. Market Demand - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand surged to $132 billion in Q2 2025, with total demand reaching 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase [7]. - The demand value increased significantly by 45% year-on-year, setting a new historical high [7]. Investment Trends - Gold ETF investments were a key driver of total gold demand, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with outflows in the same period of 2024 [9]. - The total demand for gold bars and coins rose by 11% to 307 tons, with Chinese demand increasing by 44% to 115 tons [9]. Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply increased by 3% to 1249 tons, with mine production reaching a historical high in Q2 2025 [7]. - Central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2 2025, although the pace of purchases has slowed [9]. Jewelry Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption declined by 14% year-on-year in Q2 2025, nearing 2020's low levels, despite a rise in value to $36 billion [10]. - In China, gold jewelry demand fell to 69 tons, a 20% year-on-year decrease, marking the weakest performance for Q2 since 2007 [10]. Market Outlook - The strong performance of gold in the first half of 2025 suggests potential price stability in the second half, although macroeconomic uncertainties may provide further support for gold prices [8]. - The high-end jewelry market remains robust, driven by emerging brands, while traditional retail faces challenges due to declining consumer demand [12].

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with only Chow Sang Sang increasing by 1 yuan per gram to 1015 yuan per gram, while Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 969 yuan per gram [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold stores remains unchanged at 46 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum prices have decreased, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry dropping by 6 yuan per gram to 534 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recovery price has slightly increased by 0.1 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands [2] - The current gold recovery prices for various brands are as follows: 770.50 yuan per gram for gold, 776.00 yuan for Cai Zhi gold, 768.30 yuan for Chow Sang Sang, 774.60 yuan for Chow Tai Fook, and 783.50 yuan for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 3 - International spot gold experienced a V-shaped trend, initially dropping to 3349.56 USD per ounce before closing at 3380.44 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.19% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3371.70 USD per ounce, showing a 0.26% decline [4] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a rebound in the US dollar and geopolitical tensions, alongside market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] Group 4 - Overall, spot gold still has potential for an increase, while domestic gold store prices are expected to remain stable, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for investors [5]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,375, having reached a two-week high of $3,390.32 per ounce, marking four consecutive days of gains, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed weakness, falling to 98.76, which supported gold prices as investors sought safe-haven assets amid concerns over soft employment data and changes in the U.S. labor statistics leadership [1] - The market anticipates a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to personnel changes, which could further weaken the dollar and boost gold prices [1] Market Expectations - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has surged to 91%, with predictions of cumulative cuts of 130 basis points by October 2026, as economic data indicates a slowdown [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts the Federal Reserve may implement three consecutive rate cuts starting in September, each by 25 basis points, with a potential 50 basis point cut if employment data worsens [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed a productive call with U.S. President Trump regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the need for sanctions against Russia and cooperation on drone agreements [3] - Zelensky expressed frustration over Russia's continued military aggression despite calls for a ceasefire, highlighting the dire situation for Ukrainian civilians [4] - Trump has threatened new sanctions against Russia if peace is not achieved by August 8, indicating a strong stance against Russia's actions in Ukraine [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed strong bullish momentum, with potential resistance levels at $3,390 and $3,400, while support is seen around $3,350 [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying near $3,355-$3,362 with a stop loss at $3,349, and considering short positions near $3,380-$3,385 with a stop loss at $3,391 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations have led to a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, with significant implications for gold prices and related ETFs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 5, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.25% to $3435 per ounce, with gold-related ETFs also experiencing gains [1]. - As of August 5, the year-to-date increase in gold prices reached 39.33%, with notable rises in stocks such as Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Shandong Gold [1]. - The gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.66%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) rose by 1.24% [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 73,000 jobs were added in July, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [1][4]. - The July non-farm payroll data was significantly below market expectations, leading to volatility in U.S. financial markets [1][4]. Group 3: Institutional Sentiment - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, reflecting a shift in institutional sentiment towards gold [2]. - The gold stock ETF tracks a diverse range of companies in the gold mining and sales sectors, with the top ten constituents accounting for 66.02% of the index weight [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the weak employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a rationale for potential interest rate cuts, which could further support gold prices [3][4]. - The anticipated dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials' statements and the potential for a rate cut could lead to a new upward trend in gold prices amid concerns over inflation [4].