Group 1 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, leading to a decline in the US dollar and volatility in silver prices, with industrial bank silver closing at 9.028 yuan per gram, up 0.77% [1] - The US Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, suggested a review of the Federal Reserve's overall functions, indicating a potential conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve [2] - There are conflicting reports regarding President Trump's intentions to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with indications that Trump may be seeking to lower the benchmark overnight borrowing rate significantly [2] Group 2 - The Trump administration has criticized the Federal Reserve for overspending on a $2.5 billion renovation project for its two buildings in Washington [3]

经济学家穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安（Mohamed El-Elian）周二认为，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）应该辞职，以保护美国央行免受唐纳德·特朗普 总统越来越多的攻击。 美联储不受政治干预的独立性在央行内部被视为神圣不可侵犯，正受到围攻。 唐纳德·特朗普总统对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的无情攻击如此激烈，以至于一位著名的经济学家认为鲍威尔应该辞职以保护央行的独立 性，这引起了人们的注意。 "对鲍威尔主席的攻击现在正在蔓延到整个机构。鲍威尔掌权的时间越长，这一过程就越会持续下去，从根本上威胁到美联储的独立性，"债券巨头PIMCO 前首席执行官穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）周二在接受CNN电话采访时说。 El-Erian 详细阐述了他在 X 上发表的一篇帖子，承认他的观点超出了共识，并且"非常不受欢迎"。但他指出，鲍威尔在特朗普宣布继任者的那一刻实际上会 变成一只"跛脚鸭"，这种情况可能比过去发生得更早，而鲍威尔现在离开将使美联储免于数月的攻击。 "第一个最好的办法是鲍威尔一直待到 5 月，届时他的任期结束，政府将停止攻击美联储，" ...

El-Erian认为，鲍威尔应主动卸任以保护美联储的制度独立性，防止持续的政治攻击进一步损害联储信 誉，他表示： "如果你的目标是保护中央银行的独立性，那么他辞职比留任并使攻击升级要好。" El-Erian的理由：美联储内部失误 华尔街大佬重磅发声，呼吁鲍威尔主动请辞，以保持美联储独立性。 在白宫加大对鲍威尔批评力度之际，著名经济学家Mohamed El-Erian公开呼吁鲍威尔辞职，与大多数金 融界领袖形成鲜明对比。 2023年硅谷银行倒闭引发的银行业危机是另一个重大失误。时任美联储首席监管官的Michael Barr在 2023年4月的报告中批评了监管不力，认为这部分导致了美国历史上最大的银行倒闭之一。 El-Erian指出，如果鲍威尔是企业CEO，这些失误早已导致其下台。 周一，美国财政部长贝森特呼吁对"整个联邦储备体系机构"进行审查，这进一步加剧了El-Erian的担 忧。 他表示，"这是一个危险信号"，意味着政府正在将批评范围从鲍威尔个人扩大到针对美联储本身。 El-Erian预测，这种政治压力若持续，将削弱美联储的政策影响力，尤其在Powell任期将于2026年5月结 束前，他已成为"跛脚鸭"主席 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially facing resistance around 3403, then stabilizing near 3383 before accelerating to a peak of 3433 during the night session, closing with a bullish candlestick [2] - Trade uncertainties are increasing, leading to heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as market sentiment regarding U.S. trade negotiations with major partners becomes increasingly pessimistic [3] - The potential for a significant trade deal between the U.S. and Japan, where Japan would pay a 15% reciprocal tariff and invest $550 billion, could slightly dampen safe-haven demand [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Factors - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, but the likelihood of a rate cut in October is rising amid ongoing criticism from President Trump towards Fed Chair Powell [4] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve could lead to a weaker dollar and higher long-term interest rates, which may further increase gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - The outcome of trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's decisions are critical variables that could influence gold prices significantly [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has shown a strong upward trend, with three consecutive bullish days, indicating robust short-term momentum [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3452/3453, while support levels are noted at 3390-3385 and 3360 [6] - On a four-hour chart, gold has shown a breakout after a period of consolidation, with immediate resistance at 3466 and support levels at 3405/3398 and 3385/3383 [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices rose by over 1%, influenced by domestic stimulus expectations for commodities and overseas concerns about US tariff implementation and the Fed's independence [1][12]. - Strong risk appetite may disrupt the bond market in the next 1 - 2 months, with a risk of the futures' oscillation center shifting downwards. However, there is no long - term adjustment risk for the bond market [2][13]. - Coke had a second round of price hikes. Recently, coking coal was affected by macro and policy factors, with strong market sentiment, but risks should be noted after a significant increase [3][23]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to policy expectation risks and inventory accumulation concerns, and it is advisable to wait and see [4][44]. - Oil prices oscillated downward despite a decline in API crude oil inventory [5][51]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump stated that Powell's term has only eight months left and criticized his interest - rate policy, calling for a rate cut of at least 3 percentage points [11]. - Trump announced that Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with the US getting 90% of the profits. Gold prices rose over 1%, driven by domestic stimulus expectations and overseas concerns. It is recommended that short - term gold prices are likely to be strong with increased volatility [12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 22. Sentiment is driving the market. It is expected that strong risk appetite will disrupt the bond market in the next 1 - 2 months, but there is no long - term adjustment risk. Short - term trading long positions can be closed after the Politburo meeting [13][14]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 16.7%, 3.1 percentage points higher than the previous week but 3.8% slower than last year. In 2025, China's new cotton is expected to have a yield of 158.7 kg/mu, a 2.5% increase. As of July 20, US cotton's budding and boll - setting rates were slower than last year, but the excellent rate was higher. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up Zhengzhou cotton prices [15][16][17]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil in August to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit/ton. The oil market was oscillating, and it is recommended to buy on dips or sell call options on the 09 contract [18][19]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In Q2 2025, the growth rate of real estate loans rebounded. Steel prices rose mainly due to the increase in coking coal and coke prices. It is expected that steel prices will be strong in the short term, but there are potential risks after August [20][21]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coke had a second round of price hikes. The impact of checking for over - production in coal mines is limited. Coking coal supply recovery is slower than expected, and demand is strong. However, risks should be noted after a significant increase [22][23]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On July 22, corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong had theoretical losses, and the losses are expected to continue or expand, with the operating rate remaining low [24][25]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On July 22, the成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. Old - crop corn is expected to have little fluctuation, and it is recommended to hold a small number of new - crop short positions and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [26]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - New Hope's piglet stocking in June 2025 was about 1.3 million. Spot prices have been falling, while futures are relatively stable. It is recommended to buy the 09 contract on dips and wait for hedging opportunities on the November contract [27][28]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 22, the price of steam coal in northern ports was stable. With the implementation of the coal over - production check policy and the peak summer season, coal prices are expected to be strong in the short term [29]. 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production plan of household air conditioners in August 2025 decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. Iron ore prices continued to rise, but they are in an over - valued area, and it is advisable to wait and see [30]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A Japanese - Korean joint venture plans to build a polysilicon plant in Malaysia. The polysilicon capacity storage plan is progressing slowly. It is recommended that polysilicon enterprises sell at or above the benchmark cost. Long positions are advised to consider taking profits gradually [33][34]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In June, China's export of primary polysiloxane increased month - on - month. The supply recovery of industrial silicon is slower than expected, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and observe the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [35][36]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On July 21, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount. The fundamentals of lead have improved, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips [37][38]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On July 21, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount. Zinc supply is expected to increase, and demand is differentiated. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and pay attention to near - month spread arbitrage [39][41]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Nornickel lowered its 2025 nickel, copper, and palladium production forecasts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to policy and inventory factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [42][44]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nornickel's nickel production in Q2 2025 increased by 9% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to follow the non - ferrous metals sector and be strong, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium term, it is recommended to look for opportunities to sell high [45][47]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There are disputes over a lithium project in Congo. The market is focused on supply - side disturbances. It is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see unilaterally and focus on 9 - 11 spread operations [48][50]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - API crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while refined oil inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to remain oscillating in the short term [51][52]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 22, the CEA closed at 73.30 yuan/ton. The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and enterprises with quota needs can buy cautiously on dips [53][55]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 22, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong declined. The upward momentum of the caustic soda futures may weaken [56][57]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was stable. The pulp futures increased due to policy and coal price factors, but the upward space is limited [58]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - From July 1 - 20, 2025, South Korea's total benzene exports were 162,015 tons. Styrene prices oscillated strongly. It is recommended to wait for a better entry point for pure benzene and observe the macro - policy impact on styrene [59][60]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. PVC futures followed the market's upward trend, but the fundamentals are weakening, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [61]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market was stable and strong. The futures price rose significantly. It is risky to short in the short term, and it is necessary to wait for further policy guidance [63][64]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market increased. The glass futures rose due to supply - side policy expectations. It is recommended to be cautious about unilateral operations and focus on arbitrage strategies such as going long on glass and short on soda ash [65][66]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories' export prices were mostly stable with partial slight adjustments. The industry plans to cut production in July, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing fees on dips [67][69].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizing the potential political pressures on the Fed and the implications for monetary policy and market stability [1][2][5]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism and Fed's Future - Trump publicly criticized Powell, stating that the Fed should lower interest rates by at least 3 percentage points, suggesting a target below 1% [2]. - Powell's term as Fed Chairman is set to last until May next year, with Trump indicating that Powell will leave office in about eight months [2]. - A fake resignation letter attributed to Powell circulated on social media, causing temporary market fluctuations despite being debunked [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Fed Independence - Concerns about the Fed's independence are rising, prompting some institutions to adjust their bond duration strategies [5][6]. - Deutsche Bank's strategist noted that if the Fed faces more political interference, a steepening yield curve trade could be a targeted hedge [6]. - The spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has widened to nearly 100 basis points, the highest since 2021, indicating market expectations for rising long-term rates [7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Projections - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 56% probability of a rate cut indicated by the interest rate swap market [7]. - The article highlights that if the current trend of decoupling expectations from interest rates continues, the Fed may become more cautious in its policy decisions [7]. - The upcoming August 1 tariff negotiation deadline set by Trump is viewed as a critical event that could further complicate market assessments of monetary policy [8].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are increasing, leading to a shift in bond market trading towards a steeper yield curve [1] Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell, stating he is performing poorly and suggesting interest rates should be lowered by at least 3 percentage points [2] - Trump indicated that Powell would leave his position in eight months, which raises questions about the timing and implications for monetary policy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Sentiment - A fake resignation letter attributed to Powell caused temporary market volatility, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to Powell's potential departure [3] - Analysts noted that despite the letter being debunked, the market's reaction underscores heightened concerns about Powell's tenure [3] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - Deutsche Bank strategists suggest that if the Fed faces more political interference, a targeted hedge would be to engage in steepening trades, betting on short-term rates falling while long-term rates rise [4] - The spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has widened to nearly 100 basis points, the highest since 2021, indicating market expectations for rising long-term rates [4] Group 4: Inflation Expectations - Goldman Sachs noted that there is a growing divergence between market-based inflation indicators and the 2-year risk-free rate, suggesting investor concerns about long-term inflation expectations [4] - Despite these concerns, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 56% probability of a rate cut [4][5] Group 5: Broader Market Implications - The 30-year Treasury yield has risen significantly since July, surpassing 5% for the first time this year, indicating a market reassessment of the Fed's policy direction amid political uncertainties [5] - Increased trading volume and volatility in Treasury futures reflect the market's recalibration in response to potential shifts in Fed policy and rising political uncertainty [5]

Core Viewpoint - Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor of Allianz Group, publicly called for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign to ensure the independence of the central bank, marking him as the first prominent economist to make such a statement [1]. Group 1 - El-Erian stated that if Powell's goal is to maintain the operational autonomy of the Federal Reserve, he should resign, emphasizing the importance of this autonomy [1]. - He noted that Powell's term ends in May next year, and a successor will be announced by the end of this year, effectively making Powell a "lame duck" amid a politically charged environment that threatens the Fed's independence [1]. - El-Erian acknowledged that his view contrasts with the mainstream consensus on Wall Street, which generally prefers Powell to serve until the end of his term in May 2026 [1]. Group 2 - El-Erian pointed out that Powell's resignation is not the "optimal solution," but it may be a second-best choice given the increasing and diverse threats to the Fed's independence [1]. - He highlighted three major controversies during Powell's tenure: the misjudgment of "transitory inflation" in 2022 that delayed interest rate hikes, the severe scrutiny following the banking crisis in 2023, and the internal trading scandal that led to a stock trading ban for Fed officials (Powell was not implicated) [1]. - El-Erian remarked that in the corporate world, Powell would have likely been dismissed for his policy mistakes [1]. Group 3 - Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, criticized the Federal Reserve for experiencing "mission creep," indicating that it has ventured into areas beyond core monetary policy [2]. - Bessent emphasized the need for a thorough review of the entire Federal Reserve, coinciding with ongoing attacks from Trump and his advisory team against Powell, particularly since the Fed has maintained stable interest rates since December of last year [2]. - El-Erian stressed the urgency for reform within the Federal Reserve, warning that continued erosion of its independence could lead to a depreciation of the dollar, a steepening yield curve, and rising interest rates [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is committed to discussing the current state and future direction of the U.S. banking capital framework, emphasizing the importance of its independence in monetary policy [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Statements - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the need for large banks to maintain adequate capital and manage risks while competing with non-bank financial companies and banks from other jurisdictions [6]. - Powell stated that the capital framework includes risk-based capital requirements, leverage ratio requirements, additional fees for the largest and most complex banks, and stress tests, which will be comprehensively discussed [8]. - Vice Chairman Michelle Bowman stressed the importance of the Fed's independence and the obligation to maintain transparency and accountability in monetary policy decisions [10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Market concerns about the Fed's independence were alleviated following Powell's statements, with U.S. stock indices showing mixed results; the Nasdaq initially dropped over 1% but later narrowed its losses to 0.44% [4]. - Chinese assets performed strongly, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 1.3% and the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF increasing by over 3% [4]. - Notable gains were observed in Chinese concept stocks, including a 16% rise in Daqo New Energy and over 9% in NIO [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week is nearly zero, with traders pricing in a total of 46 basis points of cuts for the remainder of the year [9]. - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in September is 41.4%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.2% [9]. Group 4: Political Pressures - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called for an internal review of the Fed but expressed confidence in Powell's leadership, stating there is no reason for him to resign [3][11]. - Concerns were raised regarding potential political pressures on Powell, particularly related to the Fed's renovation budget overruns, with speculation about his possible dismissal by President Trump [15][16].

Group 1 - The core conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is intensifying, with Trump considering appointing a "shadow chairman" to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates [1][2] - Trump has publicly stated that the federal funds rate should be reduced by 300 basis points, indicating his strong stance on the need for rate cuts due to low inflation [1] - Rob Subbaraman from Nomura suggests that if inflation rises in the next three months, it will be difficult for Trump to challenge Powell, as a shadow chairman could still influence market perceptions regarding future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Despite Trump's negative attitude towards the Fed, Subbaraman believes that the Fed's policies are difficult to influence due to its strong institutional framework and safeguards [2] - Any appointment made by Trump would require Senate approval, and monetary policy decisions are not solely determined by the Fed Chairman but involve the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with 19 members [2] - There are risks associated with a potential new chairman aligned with Trump's views after Powell's departure, which could undermine the Fed's independence and negatively impact the U.S. economy and markets [2]