卢特尼克：如果美联储降息，美国2026年有可能实现6%的增长。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The report predicts that developed economies may face stagflation risks in 2026, leading to uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may exceed market expectations and follow a non-linear path of "cut first, then raise" [1] - Global stock markets are expected to experience volatile upward trends in 2026, with structural differentiation driven by capital flows, valuation differences, and policy uncertainties [1] - The dollar is likely to remain relatively weak, fluctuating within the 95-100 range, while gold prices may trend upwards in the medium to long term, showing "high-level fluctuations, overall strength, and narrowing gains" [1] Group 2 - In China, a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in macroeconomic regulation, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures [2] - The consumption landscape is anticipated to improve significantly in 2026, driven by clear policy direction, steady income growth, and enhanced consumption infrastructure [2] - China's exports are projected to maintain stable growth due to the country's competitive advantages and increasing diversification of export markets [2] Group 3 - To further stimulate economic growth, targeted policy measures are recommended, including increased fiscal and credit support for service consumption and the implementation of an "external capital industry chain empowerment plan" [3] - Emphasis is placed on the role of major economic provinces in driving growth and incentivizing private enterprises to engage in technological innovation [3] - Attention is also needed to address local fiscal challenges and to implement risk warning and prevention measures in the stock market [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market has a basis for short-term rebound, supported by the recent trends in the US CPI indicating a moderate decline in inflation [1] - The market anticipates limited expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with a 95% probability that rates will remain unchanged in January [1] - The value of dividend allocation in Hong Kong central enterprises is becoming apparent, making it a favorable option for medium-term investment [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), which selects the 50 largest listed companies by market capitalization from the Stock Connect range [1] - This index covers sectors such as finance, discretionary consumption, and information technology, reflecting the overall performance of major enterprises in the Hong Kong market [1] - The ETF aims to combine characteristics of both new and traditional economies, providing a comprehensive view of large-cap leaders in the Hong Kong stock market [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new highs, surpassing $4,800 per ounce, which has positively influenced domestic gold-related assets and ETFs, indicating a strong long-term outlook for gold due to geopolitical sensitivity and hedging convenience [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 21, spot gold prices surged, breaking the $4,800 per ounce mark and reaching a peak of $4,844.24 per ounce [2]. - COMEX gold futures also rose sharply, exceeding $4,800 per ounce and hitting a high of $4,847.7 per ounce [2]. Group 2: ETF Performance - Domestic gold-themed ETFs showed strong performance on January 21, with several ETFs opening higher and some increasing by over 4% by 10:07 AM [2]. - The Wind data indicates that the gold stock ETF (159321.OF) has seen a 110.8% increase over the past year and an 18.15% rise since the beginning of 2026 [2]. - The commodity gold ETF, such as the Bosera Gold ETF (159937.OF), also performed well, with a 64.49% increase over the past year and an 8.31% rise since the start of 2026 [2]. Group 3: ETF Scale Growth - The largest commodity gold ETF in China, the Huaan Gold ETF (518880.OF), surpassed 100 billion yuan in scale in January 2026, becoming the first commodity ETF to reach this milestone [3]. - As of January 20, the Huaan Gold ETF's scale was reported at 105.18 billion yuan, contributing to a total scale of over 270 billion yuan for 14 gold-themed ETFs in the domestic market, which has nearly tripled compared to a year ago [4]. Group 4: Institutional Outlook - Analysts from Bosera Fund express optimism for gold's long-term performance, citing ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for further U.S. interest rate cuts as factors supporting gold prices [5]. - Huazhong Fund also anticipates that if a dovish Federal Reserve chair is elected, aggressive rate cuts could benefit gold, alongside ongoing high demand for gold ETFs globally [5]. - Zhongyin International predicts that due to escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations of further U.S. rate cuts, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset will increase, with a long-term price forecast of $5,500 per ounce [6].

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices have recently reached a historical high, surpassing $4800 per ounce, driven by rising market risk aversion due to trade conflicts between the US and Europe over Greenland [1] - The US announced tariffs on Denmark and seven other European countries, prompting the EU to prepare retaliatory tariffs on $108 billion worth of US goods, indicating significant economic impacts from the Greenland dispute [1] - The geopolitical risks have escalated, particularly with US actions towards Venezuela and Greenland, leading to increased uncertainty in the international economic environment and further boosting gold prices [1] Group 2 - For 2026, the outlook for gold prices remains bullish, supported by four core factors, including rising US fiscal risks due to increasing national debt and market skepticism about fiscal sustainability [2] - Strong demand for gold from global central banks is expected to continue, driven by strategic security and diversification needs amid economic uncertainties [2] - The continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is anticipated, providing further support for gold prices as the labor market cools and inflation risks remain manageable [2][3] - Escalating geopolitical risks, particularly related to US military involvement in Venezuela, are expected to heighten demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently trading above $93.79, with a recent high of $95.48 and a low of $93.48, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - A new uncertainty arises from the U.S. Supreme Court's upcoming decision regarding Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from the voting committee, which could impact interest rates and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump, it may weaken confidence in the Fed's independence, potentially leading to interest rate cuts that would weaken the dollar, benefiting silver prices [1] Group 2 - The physical silver market's tightness has clearly eased, with leasing rates significantly dropping, indicating that previous factors driving prices up are dissipating [2] - Given the liquidity issues in the silver market, if speculative funds start to take profits, a significant price correction is likely [2] Group 3 - Silver prices are currently oscillating around $94, maintaining a bullish trend, with key support levels at $93 and $91.5; a drop below $91.50 could lead to a retreat towards recent lows around $87.00 [3] - Short-term focus is on potential pullbacks, with resistance levels noted at $95.8 and $97.8 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and outlook of various metals, particularly gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony, indicating a mixed market with some upward momentum in precious metals and cautious recovery in base metals [2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices showed strong upward momentum, with London gold prices reaching $4,611.05 per ounce, an increase of $117.20 per ounce from the previous week, marking a rise of 2.59% [2]. - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, which may influence gold prices further [4]. Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices experienced a slight decline, with LME copper closing at $12,925 per ton, down $65 per ton, a decrease of 0.50% [5]. - Domestic copper inventory increased, with SHFE copper inventory at 213,515 tons, up 4,600 tons from the previous week [5]. - Aluminum prices also saw a minor decrease, with domestic electrolytic aluminum priced at 24,000 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan [7]. - The operating rate for domestic copper rod production increased significantly, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [7]. Group 3: Tin and Antimony - Tin prices are expected to remain stable at high levels, with domestic refined tin prices at 414,640 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,639.40 yuan [8]. - Antimony demand has improved, leading to a price rebound, with domestic antimony ingot prices rising [9]. Group 4: Investment Ratings and Recommendations - The copper industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tightness in copper supply [10]. - The aluminum industry also holds a "recommended" investment rating, supported by rigid supply conditions [11]. - Tin and antimony industries are rated as "recommended" as well, with tight supply supporting tin prices and a rebound in antimony prices after a decline [11]. - Key stock recommendations include companies in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, such as Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Cautious bearish: Crude oil, methanol, apple, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, container shipping to Europe [5] - Cautiously bullish: Stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, corn [5] Core View of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026 due to factors such as the technology cycle, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [13] - Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and central bank gold purchases [3][4] - The oil market's geopolitical risk premium has decreased, but the demand for OPEC+ crude oil is expected to increase in 2026 and 2027 [2][16] - The copper market may experience a phased correction due to supply disruptions and weakening downstream demand [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day - **International News:** US Treasury Secretary revealed that Trump is close to nominating the next Fed chair and has narrowed the candidates to four, with the final decision possibly announced next week. He also responded to the "kill line" phenomenon and blamed the Biden administration [7] - **Domestic News:** In 2026, China's macro policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand, including optimizing policies, formulating plans, and promoting high-tech industries [8] - **Industry News:** During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will improve water resource management and conservation, aiming for an irrigation water utilization coefficient of over 0.6 and a water-saving industry scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined, while the US dollar index also fell [11] - London gold and silver prices rose, while most base metals and agricultural products declined [11] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial:** The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, while the bond market has stabilized due to policy support and a cooling equity market [13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals:** Crude oil prices may be under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks and increased supply expectations. Methanol prices are expected to rise in the short term, while rubber prices may be volatile [16][17][18] - **Metals:** Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, while copper and zinc prices may experience a phased correction. Aluminum prices may be supported by low inventory in the long term [22][23][24][26] - **Black Metals:** Coking coal and steel prices may be strong in the short term, while iron ore prices are expected to remain stable [28][29][30] - **Agricultural Products:** Protein meal prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and a bumper harvest in South America. Vegetable oil prices may be supported by strong exports and policy expectations [31][32] - **Shipping Index:** Container shipping rates to Europe are expected to decline before the Spring Festival due to increased supply and weak demand [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term price is volatile due to market sentiment. It is recommended to participate cautiously in the short - term. Considering the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, try a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom center will gradually rise due to supply - side capital expenditure constraints. In the short - term, the price is strong due to global inventory structural imbalance and supply concerns. But real terminal demand is weak. As market speculation cools and tariff expectations ease, the price may return to fundamental pricing, with support at 97500 - 98500 [2]. Zinc - Market speculation has eased, and short - term sharp increases have suppressed demand, leading to price fluctuations. The tight ore supply supports the price, but imported ore may ease the short - term supply. The price is expected to fluctuate, with support at around 23800 [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. The aluminum market will maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level shock pattern in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, mainly trading around macro and Indonesian ore - end RKAB quota rhythm, with the main reference range of 138000 - 148000 [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main reference range of 13800 - 14600, affected by raw - material news and cost support [12]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price has support at around 48000 yuan/ton. During the cooling period, it is recommended to wait and see. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to orders, and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [13]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to production changes on the demand side [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but beware of recent price fluctuations and liquidity risks [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose 1.31%, LME 0 - 3 spread fell 58.84%, and import loss fell 28.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - December tin - ore imports increased 16.81%, and refined - tin imports increased 29.54%. SHEF and social inventories increased significantly [1]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper fell 0.21%, and the import loss increased [2]. Fundamental Data - December electrolytic - copper production increased 6.80%, and imports decreased 4.02%. Social and SHFE inventories increased [2]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot fell 0.33%, and the import loss decreased [4]. Fundamental Data - December refined - zinc production decreased 7.24%, and imports decreased 51.94%. Social and LME inventories increased [4]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum fell 0.80%, and the electrolytic - aluminum import loss increased [7]. Fundamental Data - December alumina production increased 1.08%, and domestic electrolytic - aluminum production increased 3.97%. Social and LME inventories changed [7]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 fell 0.21%, and the refined - waste price difference changed [9]. Fundamental Data - December regenerated - aluminum alloy ingot production decreased 6.16%, and the开工 rate decreased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.31%, and the import profit increased [10]. Fundamental Data - December Chinese refined - nickel production increased 26.10%, and imports increased 84.63%. SHFE and social inventories increased [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 roll) rose 1.06%, and the raw - material price changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - December Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased 0.92%, and exports increased 13.18%. Social inventories decreased [12]. Polysilicon Price and Basis - N - type re - feedstock average price rose 0.45%, and the futures price rose 0.39% [13]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production decreased 9.66%, and silicon - wafer production increased 2.95% [13]. Industrial Silicon Price and Basis - East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the futures price fell 1.13% [15]. Fundamental Data - January national industrial - silicon production is expected to decline, and Xinjiang's production may increase. Social inventories increased slightly [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose 0.99%, and the futures price of the main contract LC2605 rose 8.99% [16]. Fundamental Data - December lithium - carbonate production increased 4.04%, and imports increased 8.7%. Total inventories decreased 12.23% [16].

Group 1: Key Insights on Precious Metals - The upward momentum for precious metals, particularly gold, is strong, with London gold prices reaching $4,611.05 per ounce, an increase of $117.20 per ounce from the previous week, reflecting a rise of 2.59% [2] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut anticipated in January [2][3] Group 2: Key Insights on Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices are experiencing high-level consolidation, with LME copper closing at $12,925 per ton, down $65 per ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4] - Domestic copper inventory is reported at 213,515 tons, showing an increase of 4,600 tons from January 9, while SHFE inventory also reflects a similar trend [4] - Aluminum prices are at 24,000 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with LME aluminum inventory at 488,000 tons, a decrease of 9,825 tons [6] Group 3: Key Insights on Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin prices are at 41,4640 yuan per ton, up 639.40 yuan per ton, indicating a positive trend [8] - Antimony prices have rebounded, with domestic antimony ingot prices increasing by 0.2 million yuan per ton from January 9 [10] Group 4: Investment Ratings and Recommendations - The copper industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tightness in copper supply [13] - The aluminum industry also holds a "recommended" investment rating, supported by rigid supply dynamics [14] - The tin industry is rated "recommended" as supply constraints are expected to support tin prices [14] - The antimony industry is rated "recommended" following a rebound in prices after a six-month decline [14] Group 5: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), and China National Gold (600916) [15] - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and Western Mining (601168) [15] - For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co. (000933) and Yunnan Aluminum (000807) [15] - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. (000960) and Hunan Gold (002155) [15]