金十数据6月27日讯，展望下半年，专家表示，外部环境仍面临很大不确定性，为着力提振内需、加大 对外贸等领域的支持力度，货币政策需在适度宽松方向进一步发力，并保持市场流动性处于稳定的充裕 状态。"预计下半年还会有1至2次降息，总计调降政策利率20个至30个基点，从而引导LPR下行，并传 导至贷款、存款利率的进一步下行。"银河证券首席经济学家章俊说。此外，对于市场讨论较多的政策 性金融工具，华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘认为，新型政策性金融工具有望在年内推出，或允许政策 性银行发行金融债券筹集资金，以股权投资形式补充科技创新、外贸等项目资本金，估计今年落地额度 为5000亿元至10000亿元。 （中证报） 专家：新型政策性金融工具或允许政策性银行发行金融债券 ...

Domestic News - The National Financial Regulatory Administration and the Central Bank jointly released the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries," aiming to establish a high-quality comprehensive inclusive financial system within five years [1] - The State Council issued the "Implementation Plan for Further Improving the Credit Repair System," which proposes a unified credit information disclosure platform and clarifies the channels for credit repair applications [1] - Xiaomi officially launched its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, with prices starting at 253,500 yuan, Pro version at 279,900 yuan, and Max version at 329,900 yuan; also released its first AI glasses starting at 1,999 yuan [1] - The 2025 basic medical insurance catalog and commercial insurance innovative drug catalog adjustment application guidelines have been released, marking the first inclusion of commercial insurance innovative drugs [1] - The new generation of domestically developed general-purpose processor, Longxin 3C6000, has been released [1] International News - Trade negotiations between India and the United States have reached a stalemate, according to Indian officials [2] - The European Union believes that the U.S. attack occurred after Iran transferred enriched uranium [2] - The spread between the U.S. 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields has exceeded 101 basis points, marking the steepest since 2021 [2] - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic; first-quarter GDP has been revised down [2] - Iran has officially enacted a law to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency [2] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that with inflation easing, interest rate hikes are no longer a primary topic; potential neutral rate estimates may gradually rise over time [2]

美联储古尔斯比：如果通胀率保持在2%的范围内且不确定性得到解决，美联储将走上降息的路径。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, emphasizing the U.S. stance on sanctions and inflation concerns, which may impact future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The article provides predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, indicating a high probability of maintaining the current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50% on July 31, 2025, at 75.2% [4]. - There is a 68.1% chance of the rate being between 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, and a 51.3% chance of it being between 3.75%-4.00% on October 30, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The article notes that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a critical level at the Bollinger middle band around 3355, which will determine the market's direction [5]. - A bearish flag pattern is forming, indicating potential downward pressure on gold prices, with key support levels around 3300 [7]. - The article highlights the importance of the upper and lower boundaries of a rising wedge pattern, suggesting that a breach of these levels could lead to significant market movements [7].

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 7 月降息"豪赌"？特朗普"爱将" vs 联储主席，美国货币政策迎来关键博弈。 近期美联储理 事沃勒与副主席鲍曼接连表态支持在7月启动降息，引发市场对货币政策转向的强烈预期。 作为特朗普任命的理事，沃勒和鲍曼的激进鸽派发言并非"空穴来风"，而是美联储在多重约 束下的策略性选择： 既要应对经济数据的"迷雾"（经济下行担忧），又要平衡白宫的政治压 力，同时维系市场对政策独立性的信任。而作为美联储内部具有影响力的官员，其激进表态 也或将一定程度影响后续联储的降息决策，为货币政策转向预留"安全垫"。 | | 鲍曼和沃勒降息表态 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 官员 | 职位 | 与特朗普关系 | 降息表态 | | 的曼 | 美联储理事、监管副主 席 | 特朗普1.0任命为美联储理事: 特朗普2.0任命为美联储副主席 | 如果通胀压力得到控制,将支持在下次会议 (7月) 上尽快 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The main nickel futures contract in Shanghai has risen for three consecutive trading days, reaching a new high since June 12, closing at 120,830 yuan/ton, up 2.33% [1] - The decrease in geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties has positively impacted the nickel market, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declining [1] - Domestic nickel prices have seen a decline, with the current spot price at 119,775 yuan/ton, down 6.02% from the end of last year [1] Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - In May 2025, nickel ore imports increased by 34.77% month-on-month to 3.9272 million tons, but decreased by 14.79% year-on-year [2] - The Philippines remains the primary source of nickel ore, with 3.6058 million tons imported, accounting for 91.82% of the total imports for the month [2] - The market is concerned about potential oversupply due to the removal of export restrictions on nickel ore in the Philippines, while Indonesian nickel ore remains tight in the short term [2] Group 3: Demand and Production Insights - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to decrease by 2.91% month-on-month in June, with a total output of 3.3623 million tons [3] - The demand for nickel is under pressure due to weak terminal demand and slow recovery in manufacturing orders, leading to a focus on just-in-time inventory replenishment [3] - The overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied, with nickel prices expected to face downward pressure [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the nickel market may experience a combination of supply contraction and demand substitution to address the oversupply issue [4] - The short-term outlook for nickel prices is mixed, with potential for a rebound above 120,000 yuan/ton, but also risks of volatility and downward pressure in the second half of the year [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor the impact of Indonesian policies and the development of new energy and semiconductor demands for long-term growth opportunities [4]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is considering announcing a successor to current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier than expected due to dissatisfaction with Powell's slow interest rate cuts, despite Powell having 11 months left in his term [1][2][12]. Group 1: Potential Candidates - Trump is reportedly considering former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as potential successors, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [4][12]. - Other names mentioned include former World Bank President David Malpass and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller as possible contenders [6][24]. - Bessent has shown interest in the position of Fed Chair, despite publicly committing to his role as Treasury Secretary [21][22]. Group 2: Timing and Implications - If Trump announces a successor in the summer or fall, it would be significantly earlier than the traditional three to four months transition period, potentially allowing the new chair to influence market expectations regarding interest rates before Powell's term ends [8][29]. - The early announcement could create a "shadow chair" dynamic, where the new appointee may face challenges in publicly criticizing Powell while needing Senate support for confirmation [29][30]. Group 3: Market and Policy Impact - The potential for a new chair to influence monetary policy discussions is evident, as Waller has already advocated for early interest rate cuts, indicating that the succession debate is affecting Fed policy discussions [26][28]. - Trump's strategy has evolved, as he previously threatened to fire Powell but later retracted that statement amid market instability, highlighting the delicate balance between political influence and Fed independence [29]. Group 4: Candidate Characteristics - Warsh is seen as a strong candidate but has a reputation for being hawkish, focusing more on inflation than employment, which could complicate his potential appointment [14][15]. - Hassett has expressed disinterest in the Fed Chair position, while Bessent's close relationship with Trump may enhance his candidacy [19][22]. - Waller's appeal lies in his tactical positioning within the Fed, as he is viewed as a long-term competitor for the chairmanship [25].

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | | 2025/6/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1759.900 | 21.6↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1325.6 | +37.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | -13.10↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 434.30 | | | 270.80 | -33.70↓ | | EC合约基差 | -19.70↓ | 177.24 | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -2043↓ | 41485 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 239.51↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1937.14 | | | 2,083.46 | -825.22↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -218.65↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1869.59 | | | 1,227.97 | -0.10↓ | | ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/6/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,890.00 | +80.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,795.50 | +83.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 160.00 | -20.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 191,140.00 | +53503.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 6,571.00 | +1689.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 93,475.00 | -1200.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 100,814.00 | -1129.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 37,225.00 | -2925.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 23,696.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 78,9 ...

美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔昨晚重申了"不急于降息"的言论，但同日美国总统特朗普的一则消息引 起了广泛关注。特朗普表示，他认识的人大概只有三四个，幸运的是，鲍威尔很快就会下台，并对鲍威 尔的智力和工作表现进行了批评。这一系列言论似乎暗示着特朗普即将宣布美联储主席的继任者名单。 值得一提的是，全球关注的黄金市场近期陷入沉寂，正在酝酿下一轮的大涨或大跌。鉴于特朗普的性格 特点，当他频繁提起某件事时，可能会突然做出决定。因此，即使下一秒宣布新的美联储主席人选，也 不要感到意外，市场随时可能发生剧烈变化。 来源：热点快报 根据目前的消息，特朗普的美联储主席继任者名单上可能有四个人选。首先是前美联储理事凯文·沃 什，他是最鹰派也是最激进的候选人，据称是特朗普本人最看好的人选。其次是现任美联储理事沃勒， 他是一个技术派人物，延续性较强，并且是第一个宣布支持7月降息的联储官员。第三位是白宫国家经 济委员会主任哈塞特，他具有强烈的政治色彩，并在昨晚突然表示美联储目前有足够的降息空间。最后 是财政部长贝森特，他是一个市场友好型的人物，得到了特朗普盟友的力推。 特朗普势必会选择一位"喜欢降息的人"作为下一任美联储主席，这引发了对 ...