Economic Indicators - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, indicating structural changes in the economy [1][3] - Industrial electricity consumption accounts for nearly 60%, while traditional high-energy-consuming sectors such as chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials saw a collective decline in electricity usage [1][3] - High-tech manufacturing, electronic devices, biomedicine, and industrial robotics experienced electricity consumption growth rates exceeding 10% [3] Transportation and Financing - Railway freight volume has shown positive growth for six consecutive months, with July's freight volume reaching 452 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3] - The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans remained above 272 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, indicating sustained financing willingness [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would alleviate global funding cost pressures and expand China's monetary policy space [6] - Historical experience suggests that the LPR may be lowered by 10-15 basis points on September 22, aiming for a balance between stable exchange rates and supporting the real estate market [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Domestic policies are entering a sensitive phase, with intentions to stabilize the real estate market becoming evident [8] - Potential policy paths include urban village renovations, updating dilapidated housing, and supporting improvement demand, all pointing towards a high-quality housing market [8] - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing and the potential for similar actions in Shanghai and Shenzhen may lead to a rebound in core city real estate markets if combined with interest rate cuts [8][10] Long-term Real Estate Trends - Historical patterns indicate that stock markets often rise before real estate markets, suggesting a potential correlation in the current cycle [10] - Despite concerns about population peaks and high vacancy rates, the continuous expansion of money supply supports the long-term upward trend in core city housing prices [11] - The urbanization rate in China has just crossed 66%, with population and resources still concentrating in major cities, reinforcing the demand for real estate [11] Investment Strategies - The current low down payment ratios and mortgage rates present favorable conditions for homebuyers, making it a rational choice to sell properties in non-core areas and invest in prime locations [13] - The potential for housing prices in top cities to increase by 3-5 times over the next two decades is supported by the natural results of compounding and deepening urbanization [13] - Investors are advised to focus on "hardcore assets" such as properties near subway stations, quality school districts, and industrial clusters, which provide liquidity support and resilience [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% for the fifth consecutive time this year, which has implications for political and economic dynamics, particularly for Trump as he seeks to present a thriving economy ahead of the midterm elections [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties, particularly influenced by Trump's economic policies [4][6]. - The Fed's stance is driven by concerns over inflation and employment risks, indicating a lack of confidence in the current administration's economic direction [4][6]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's pressure for rate cuts is linked to his need for a strong economic narrative to support his re-election campaign, as lower rates could boost the stock market and make loans cheaper [3][4]. - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve are shifting, with factions emerging that either support immediate rate cuts or advocate for a wait-and-see approach based on economic data [7][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming September meeting is anticipated to be critical for the Fed's independence and decision-making, as internal divisions may influence the outcome [6][9]. - The political landscape suggests that regardless of the Fed's actions, the economic narrative will be shaped by Trump's influence, potentially leading to a scenario where the Fed's credibility is challenged [9][10].

Gold - Following a dovish speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, discussions about interest rate cuts remain active, with Morgan Stanley predicting no rate changes until March next year, and a total of six cuts by the end of next year, bringing rates down to the 2.75%-3.0% range [1] - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, while Powell's dovish comments increase the likelihood of rate cuts, both factors are favorable for gold prices [1] - Gold prices rose from $3320 to a peak of $3394, with a warning of potential short-term pullbacks, focusing on the $3372 support level [1] Oil - The U.S. government has increased tariffs on goods from India from 25% to 50% in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, with Indian oil companies stating that their purchases depend on pricing [2] - Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have forced Russian refineries to halt operations, leading to an increase in oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day from western ports in August [2] - Oil prices have been on a downward trend since September 2023, with a critical support level at $64.50 not being reclaimed, and current resistance at $63.50 and support at $62.30 [2] Dollar Index - Rising expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, while long-term yields are increasing due to inflation expectations and economic uncertainty, which may steepen the yield curve [3] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to sustained steepening of Treasury yields, with warnings that loosening monetary policy before inflation is under control may prompt investors to sell U.S. Treasuries [3] - The dollar index has shown volatile movements recently, with a focus on the resistance level at 98.80; failure to break this level may lead to continued fluctuations or declines [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a downward adjustment since last week, with ongoing adjustments not yet concluded, focusing on support at the 42000 level and resistance at 42650 for a potential return to an upward trend [5] Copper - After a significant drop in copper prices at the end of July, the bullish trend has paused, with prices maintaining low levels and struggling to break the $4.50 resistance, suggesting a trading range between $4.32 and $4.50 [6]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Jackson Hole summit released unexpectedly dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant market rebound post-meeting[33] - There is a high probability of a rate cut in September, as Powell emphasized the trend of employment risks outweighing inflation risks[33] - The market's pricing for a September rate cut peaked at 100% after disappointing non-farm payroll data, later adjusting to around 75% before the meeting[19] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the dovish signals, asset prices across various categories, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, are expected to rise due to lower risk-free rates and increased risk appetite[19] - The A-share market led gains with the Sci-Tech 50 index rising by 13.3% during the period from August 16 to August 23[35] - The outlook for mid-term monetary easing remains positive, with expectations for further rate cuts in Q4 2025 and into 2026, driven by weakening inflation and economic risks[34] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - The three-month moving average for non-farm payrolls has dropped to 35,000, the lowest since the pandemic began, indicating a slowdown in the job market[24] - The manufacturing PMI for August rose to 53.3, significantly above the expected 49.5, suggesting a recovery in business activity despite ongoing price pressures[41] - Risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions, which could impact market sentiment and economic performance[43]

黄金今日早盘避险上涨，开盘后呈现鲜明的探底回升走势，在最低下探至3351附近后，多头迅速发力展开强势拉升，不仅收复日内跌幅，更直接突破周五高 点压制，最高触及3386附近位置，这一走势清晰表明当前短线多头能量仍具延续性且多头主导格局暂未改变，技术面上日线周期强势特征明显，价格站上短 期均线之上，叠加降息基本面利好支撑，金价仍具备进一步上冲动能，短期需重点关注日线上轨压力区域，同时价格在短线走势上两次测试3367位置均成功 支撑住，为晚间美盘上冲行情提供重要参考，操作上翁老师建议重点关注3386高点得失，若价格保持强势，翁富豪团队建议于3370位置先行布局多单，若回 踩至3365支撑位附近则进行补仓多单操作，目标看向3385上方区域，若强势突破3386高点则需进一步关注3400整数关口压力位表现。 操作策略：黄金建议3370附近先多，回踩3365补仓多，止损在3360，目标看向3380-3400 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负. ...

Group 1 - The recent dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by President Trump has led to a weakening of the US dollar against all major currencies, raising concerns about the credibility of the dollar as a world reserve currency [2] - Trump's intervention in the operations of the Federal Reserve and other institutions is seen as a challenge to their credibility, potentially undermining the dollar's safe-haven status [2] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that the next decision meeting may involve a rate cut due to rising risks in the job market, which could further support gold prices [1][2] Group 2 - Gold is currently fluctuating within a range, with key resistance at $3438 and support at $3245, indicating a lack of significant market movement until a breakout occurs [2] - Short-term resistance for gold is noted around $3379, with buyers aiming to break this level to increase bullish bets, while sellers may enter around this level with targets set at $3350 [2] - The daily chart for gold shows a bullish bias, with resistance levels at $3362, $3402, and $3420, and support levels at $3378, $3369, and $3362 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political maneuvering by former President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve, highlighting concerns over the potential loss of the Fed's independence and the implications for the U.S. economy and global markets [1][7][15]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Motivations - Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, who was appointed for a 14-year term, is likened to a landlord trying to evict a tenant with a long lease, illustrating the absurdity of his actions [3][5]. - The urgency behind Trump's actions is linked to the upcoming elections, as he seeks to lower interest rates to alleviate housing costs and gain voter support [5][12]. - Trump's desire to replace Fed officials with those aligned with his policies indicates a strategy to exert control over the Fed to implement his economic agenda [5][12]. Group 2: Implications for the Federal Reserve and the Economy - The potential interference in the Fed's operations threatens its independence, which has historically been crucial for maintaining economic stability and managing crises [7][8]. - If the Fed becomes a tool for political agendas, it could lead to market panic, a loss of confidence in the dollar, and increased yields on government bonds, undermining the U.S. economy's credibility [8][10]. - The risk of inflation resurgence is highlighted, as pushing for lower interest rates could reignite inflationary pressures, negatively impacting consumers despite short-term benefits [10][12]. Group 3: Political Calculations and Consequences - Trump's strategy to manipulate the Fed for electoral gain may backfire legally and politically, as courts are likely to uphold the Fed's independence [12][13]. - The public's concern over inflation may overshadow any immediate benefits from lower interest rates, leading to voter dissatisfaction if economic conditions do not improve as expected [12][13]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence for long-term economic health, warning against the dangers of prioritizing short-term political gains over sound economic policy [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, leading to increased demand for put options on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a bearish outlook on long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - There has been a notable increase in demand for long-term Treasury put options, with the skew reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, reflecting a bearish sentiment [1] - The yield spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasuries has widened to the highest level since 2021, indicating that 30-year Treasuries are underperforming compared to shorter maturities [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Following Fed Chair Powell's hint at potential rate cuts to support the labor market, the yield curve has steepened, with investors favoring curve steepener trades [3] - Market speculation suggests that Trump may appoint a more dovish policymaker to replace Cook, which could lower short-term rates but risk increasing long-term inflation expectations [1][3] Group 3: Investor Positioning - According to JPMorgan's Treasury All-Client Positioning Survey, net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have decreased by 2 percentage points, shifting to a neutral stance, while net short positions remain unchanged [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish despite ongoing uncertainties, with potential for long-term gains driven by geopolitical risks and monetary policy shifts [1][5][7]. Market Performance - On August 26, gold opened at $3365.68 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3351.20, and rebounded to a high of $3393.49, closing at $3393.43, marking a daily increase of $27.75 or 0.82% [1][3]. - The trading range for gold was noted to be between $3370 and $3380, with significant volatility influenced by U.S. political developments and trade tensions [3][5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently supported by the 60-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend despite short-term resistance [1][9]. - Historical patterns suggest that after a period of consolidation, gold prices are likely to rise again, with potential support levels identified at $3270 and $3220 [7][9]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hint at possible policy adjustments, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which are generally favorable for gold [5]. - The potential for increased tariffs and trade tensions under the Trump administration adds to the uncertainty, further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [5][10]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term forecast for gold suggests a possibility of reaching historical highs around $4200 within the next year, driven by economic recession risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions [5][7].

Market Performance - US stock market experienced a late rally with all major indices closing slightly higher; Nasdaq up 0.44%, S&P 500 up 0.41%, and Dow Jones up 0.3% [2] - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Tesla and Nvidia rising over 1%, while Apple, Netflix, Amazon, and Meta had slight increases [4] Apple Inc. - Apple is set to hold a major fall product launch event on September 9 at 10 AM Pacific Time, where the iPhone 17 series is expected to be unveiled [6] Economic Commentary - President Trump indicated that he will soon have a majority at the Federal Reserve and emphasized the need for interest rate cuts to address housing costs [8] - The Federal Reserve spokesperson reiterated that the long-term fixed terms of board members are protected by law, ensuring that monetary policy decisions are based on data and long-term interests of the American people [8][9] - Federal Reserve Governor Barkin projected a moderate adjustment in interest rates [10]