大家好，今天我们直接上干货：美联储的权力游戏又双叒叕上演了！ 你以为美国总统只忙着打选战？不，特朗普的"兴趣爱好"多着呢。比如，这两天他又把目光锁定在老朋友——美联储主席鲍威尔身上， 想"请"他离开。不过这回，有人站出来泼了他一盆冷水，这位不是别人，正是财政部长贝森特。 根据20号媒体的爆料，贝森特亲自对特朗普说："现在经济表现良好，市场也挺支持你这套政策，在这个节点上罢免鲍威尔，不仅没必要， 还可能带来反效果。"这话一出口，相当于给特朗普的"行动计划"踩了一脚刹车。 而且贝森特还补了一句非常关键的话：你想要的不是降息吗？人家美联储都在暗示年底要降两次息了，这不正往你希望的方向走着呢？你再 动他，这剧情是不是演得有点多余？ 实际上，特朗普的顾问团也很清楚，这事真动起来，麻烦一堆。比如说，如果罢免了鲍威尔，副主席Jefferson会临时接手，而他是拜登提名 的、还是鲍威尔的亲密战友。这算哪门子换人？而且参议院八月通常休会，没人能保证接替人选能及时获批。搞不好就陷入领导层真空，市 场直接跳水，谁担得起这个后果？ 这么一来，特朗普团队干脆琢磨另一条路：不直接罢免，咱就等，等到明年有空缺名额再慢慢布局。而且现在顾问团 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Trump's rumored intention to "fire" Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the resulting market reactions, including a significant sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Group 1: Rumors of Firing Powell - Recent rumors suggest Trump may "fire" Powell, leading to market volatility and concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence [2][5] - Trump's motivation for potentially firing Powell includes a desire for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal pressure, as interest payments accounted for 16.9% of federal spending by June 2025 [22][33] - Legal challenges exist regarding Trump's ability to fire Powell, as he would need to prove "misconduct," and Powell could seek legal recourse to maintain his position [38][41] Group 2: Powell's Response and Potential Resignation - Powell has expressed a strong commitment to completing his term, stating he cannot foresee any reason other than death that would prevent him from doing so [3][45] - Historical precedents exist where Federal Reserve Chairs resigned under political pressure, but Powell's determination appears firm [3][45] Group 3: Next Chairman Nomination Process - If Trump successfully fires Powell, the nomination process for a new chairman could accelerate, with potential candidates including Waller, Hassett, and Basant [48][59] - The nomination process involves presidential nomination, Senate hearings, and confirmation, which can vary in duration [55] Group 4: Market Reactions - The market experienced a "triple kill" (stocks, bonds, and currencies all declining) in response to the rumors, with significant movements in the S&P 500 and U.S. Treasury yields [20][9] - Following Trump's denial of plans to fire Powell, market conditions stabilized, indicating the sensitivity of financial markets to political developments [20][8]

一、华尔街的紧急预案 那张美债收益率曲线图在我屏幕上跳动时，我正喝着第三杯咖啡。30年期收益率像受惊的兔子般窜升11个基点，与5年期利差撕开一道2021年以来最狰狞的 裂口——这哪是什么技术调整，分明是交易员们用真金白银在投票：特朗普真要动鲍威尔了。 Citrini Research那帮穿定制西装的家伙们又在推荐"收益率曲线趋陡交易"，这招他们在2024年就用过。当时所有人都说特朗普不敢碰美联储独立性，结果 呢？量化模型早把政治博弈的概率算得明明白白。现在他们让客户买入两年期美债同时做空十年期，本质上是在赌新主席会像土耳其那个被撤职的央行行长 一样，被迫把利率当政治玩具。 二、数据不会说谎的真相 你们知道最讽刺的是什么吗？当华尔街用TIPS盈亏平衡通胀率对冲风险时——看那10年期数据已经飙到2.42%了——A股散户还在争论"明天大盘是涨是 跌"。 那些说"机构拉升前会有明显迹象"的人，根本不懂大资金建仓就像大象蹚过灌木丛——你以为它应该悄无声息？实际上早被专业工具记录得清清楚楚。文一 科技更典型，走势图看着人畜无害，量化数据却暴露了机构持续三周的隐蔽动作： 这让我想起去年二季度那出荒诞剧。某外资巨头公开宣称" ...

金十数据7月21日讯，美元指数DXY周一亚盘时段走势低迷，主要受美国关税政策及美联储独立性疑虑 拖累。美国商务部长卢特尼克周日向美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）新闻明确表示，8月1日是新关税生 效的硬性截止日期。《华尔街日报》同日报道，美国财长贝森特近日已向美国总统特朗普陈述利害，力 劝其不要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。特朗普多次批评鲍威尔在降息问题上过于谨慎。FP Markets分析师 Aaron Hill指出，若解雇鲍威尔将动摇美联储独立性，对美元及美债造成重大冲击。 美元指数 机构：美元走势疲软 关税大限与美联储独立性担忧双重施压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell highlights a significant challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve and raises concerns about the stability of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency [7][29][31]. Group 1: Pressure on Powell - Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell, referring to him with derogatory nicknames, indicating a personal vendetta against the Fed Chairman [3][17]. - The pressure from Trump for interest rate cuts has been met with resistance from Powell, who cites inflation uncertainties due to tariffs and a strong labor market as reasons for not lowering rates [3][16]. - The internal division within the White House regarding Powell's position is evident, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advising against firing Powell due to potential severe economic and political repercussions [5][22]. Group 2: Renovation Controversy - The renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, costing nearly $2.5 billion, has become a focal point for Trump's criticism, with accusations of wasteful spending [10][12]. - Powell has defended the renovation as necessary for safety and structural integrity, attributing cost increases to post-pandemic material price surges [12][14]. - Trump's use of the renovation as a pretext for potentially dismissing Powell underscores the personal nature of the conflict [12][31]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's demand for significant interest rate cuts, exceeding 3 percentage points, is driven by the desire to reduce interest expenses on the national debt, which could be used for tax cuts and infrastructure projects [14][31]. - Powell's reluctance to cut rates stems from concerns about reigniting inflation, which he has been combating amid the highest inflation rates in 40 years [16][29]. - The potential dismissal of Powell could undermine the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to broader implications for market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. dollar [20][31]. Group 4: Internal Fed Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with differing views among members on the impact of tariffs and inflation [24][26]. - The ongoing discussions about the next Fed Chair indicate a power struggle that could influence future monetary policy directions [26][29]. - The conflict between Trump and Powell transcends personal disputes, touching on the fundamental principles of the U.S. economic system and the long-standing independence of the Federal Reserve [29][31].

Group 1 - Trump's dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is evident, as he has repeatedly suggested replacing him, citing issues like the renovation costs of the Fed building as points of criticism [1][3] - The Federal Reserve Act restricts the President's ability to unilaterally dismiss the Fed Chairman during their term, highlighting the institutional independence of the Fed and the checks and balances within the U.S. government [3] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned Trump that firing Powell could lead to severe economic consequences, including a potential 3% drop in the dollar's value and turmoil in the bond market [3] Group 2 - Trump's threats to cancel SpaceX's government contracts were deemed impractical due to SpaceX's critical role in NASA's astronaut transportation and military satellite launches, with a potential breach of contract costing up to $2 billion [4] - The U.S. government concluded that most contracts with SpaceX must be retained, as losing Musk's support would jeopardize key defense and space exploration missions [4] Group 3 - Brazilian President Lula strongly rebuffed Trump's attempt to influence Brazil's internal affairs through tariff threats, emphasizing that no foreign power has the right to interfere in Brazil's domestic matters [6][9] - Lula's government returned Trump's letter, labeling its content as false and offensive, and countered U.S. claims of unfair trade with data [9]

随着唐纳德·特朗普总统持续向美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔施加压力，早些时候两人曾经的对峙或许能为当前的僵局提供些许线索。 回顾2019年，和今天的局面相似，特朗普当时强烈要求美联储迅速降息，并因此引发了有关鲍威尔是否能继续担任美联储主席以及他是否会被解职的广泛讨 论。 鲍威尔再次重申："答案是'不'。" 沃特斯不甘心地追问："你认为总统没有解雇你的权力？这就是你不愿离开的原因吗？" 鲍威尔表示："法律明确规定我有四年的任期，我完全打算为这个任期服务。" 2019年，鲍威尔曾公开表示，为了保护美联储的独立性，他宁愿随船沉没，也不愿为了保住个人职位而屈服于政治压力。 如今，特朗普继续对鲍威尔施压，似乎这场对峙的背后，隐藏着一些可能对当前局面产生影响的深层次因素。 那时候的特朗普，除了为加快降息施压，还因为他发动的贸易战而要求美联储采取更多宽松政策。这一举动，再次引发了关于鲍威尔是否能继续领导美联储 的质疑，特别是他是否会在特朗普的压力下下台。 在2019年7月的众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，时任委员会主席的玛克辛·沃特斯曾问鲍威尔："如果今天或明天你接到总统的电话，他说'我要解雇你，收 拾东西，准备离开'，你会怎么做 ...

巴克莱：解雇鲍威尔恐将适得其反 金十数据7月21日讯，巴克莱利率策略团队在最新报告中警告，解雇美联储主席鲍威尔非但不会加速 FOMC降息进程，反而可能引发政策反噬。报告指出："若市场质疑美联储独立性导致通胀预期升温、 长期收益率攀升，FOMC甚至可能延长按兵不动周期或重启加息。"策略师认为，即便任命新美联储主 席也难以实质性放宽货币政策，因其仍需与其他11位FOMC票委达成共识。 ...

另有知情者表示，贝森特向特朗普强调当前经济表现良好，市场对其政策反应积极，此时罢免鲍威尔实 无必要。贝森特认为，当前美股处于历史高位，失业率维持低位，此时触发政策动荡恐引发市场回调。 美联储已释放年底两次降息信号，与特朗普降低融资成本的目标部分契合。 总统核心圈部分顾问承认，即便鲍威尔不诉诸法律，强行撤换也可能导致领导层真空——因无法保证通 常8月休会的参议院能迅速确认继任者。若执意违背共和党参议员反对意见罢免鲍威尔，任何继任者的 确认程序都将举步维艰。根据现行法律，美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊将在主席缺位时代理职务，而他 是拜登任命的鲍威尔盟友。 这些顾问坦言，金融市场反应与程序障碍可能让特朗普陷入"双输"：政府需承担市场动荡的代价，却无 法立即掌控货币政策。 贝森特建议特朗普等待自然更替，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒的任期将于2025年1月结束，鲍威尔的 主席任期亦将于同年5月届满，届时总统可一次性提名1–2名理事并指定新主席，逐步实现政策转向。 新华财经北京7月21日电（崔凯）围绕美国总统特朗普是否罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的争议持续发酵，尽 管特朗普多次公开表达不满，但其核心幕僚——财政部长贝森特已成为内部关 ...

·二十国集团举行今年第三次G20财长和央行行长会议 ·IMF：各国应增强韧性，促进中期增长 ·美联储褐皮书显示经济不确定性仍然很高 ·IMF第一副总裁戈皮纳特表示，在下行风险继续成为主导，不确定性仍然高企的背景下，各国政策制 定者应将重点放在解决贸易紧张局势和实施宏观经济政策上，以解决潜在的国内失衡问题。这包括恢复 财政空间，确保债务处于可持续水平。为了维持价格和金融稳定，货币政策必须根据各国的具体情况仔 细调整，并进行明确和一致的沟通。央行的独立性必须得到保护。 ·美联储发布的经济状况"褐皮书"显示，从5月下旬到7月初，经济活动略有增加。不确定性仍然很高， 导致企业持续保持谨慎。旅游业活动涨跌互现，制造业活动小幅下降，非金融服务业活动平均而言几乎 没有变化，但各地区之间存在差异。经济前景呈中性至略微悲观态势。 ·美联储主席鲍威尔回应白宫预算主管有关美联储大楼翻新事宜时表示，美联储委员会认为透明度至关 重要；自2017年以来审查工作持续进行，项目监察长也在审查大楼翻新项目。与国家资金规划委员会的 合作具有建设性和稳健性，而这是由美联储自愿推动的。国家发展委员会（NCPC）批准以来的项目变 更仅是缩减和简化建设 ...