2026年开年以来，商业航天领域资本热潮强势涌动，相关概念股表现活跃。不过，在持续"高歌猛 进"后，近日板块又有所降温。那么，商业航天这一领域的行业空间究竟有多大？其产业链包括哪些环 节，投资价值如何挖掘？近日，长城久嘉基金经理尤国梁做客央视财经直播间，围绕这些投资者关注的 核心话题展开了深度交流。 尤国梁表示，从远期视角看，商业航天是一个具有很大的成长潜力与想象空间的新兴产业。目前低轨卫 星互联网已接入大量用户，海外"星链" 业务已持续盈利，证明了其商业模式的可行性，国内星座则在 快速组网，未来除满足国内自身需求外，还有望拓展"一带一路"沿线等国家的业务需求，进一步打开市 场空间。与此同时，海外巨头正积极探索太空算力，国内亦有进展，全球共振趋势，有望为商业航天创 造新的需求，打开发展天花板。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 2026年开年以来，商业航天领域资本热潮强势涌动，相关概念股表现活跃。不过，在持续"高歌猛 进"后，近日板块又有所降温。那么，商业航天这一领域的行业空间究竟有多大？其产业链包括哪些环 节，投资价值如何挖掘？近日，长城久嘉基金经理尤国梁做客央视财经直播间，围绕这些投资者关注的 核心话题展开了 ...

文字早评 2026/01/28 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、人民日报刊文：《2026，一个可期待的商业航天大年》； 2、国家疾控局：我国尚未发现尼帕病毒病病例 疫情对我国产生的影响相对较小； 3、欧盟正式启动各成员国政府卫星通信计划； 4、谷歌云正式官宣涨价 其中北美地区翻倍。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.19%/0.27%/-0.06%/-1.11%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.06%/-0.02%/-0.86%/-2.09%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.04%/-0.30%/-1.93%/-3.86%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.26%/0.38%/0.51%/-0.34%。 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周二，TL 主力合约收于 112.090 ，环比变化-0.37%；T 主力合约收于 108.185 ，环比变 化 0.00%；TF 主力合约收于 105.840 ，环比变化-0.01%； ...

Company Updates - MAGEC has formed a partnership with NVIDIA, becoming a designated provider of data center components in the server power sector, actively participating in the innovative design and collaborative construction of NVIDIA's Blackwell series architecture data center hardware systems [5] - Microchip Technology has announced a price increase for its products due to industry-wide chip supply tightness and rising costs, with price adjustments ranging from 15% to 50% [5] - Guokai Microelectronics has issued a price increase notice, with price hikes of 40% for 512Mb KGD products, 60% for 1Gb KGD products, and 80% for 2Gb KGD products starting January [6] - Muxi Co., Ltd. expects to achieve an operating income of 1.6 billion to 1.7 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 115.32% to 128.78% compared to the previous year [10] - Zhongjin Gold anticipates a net profit of 4.8 billion to 5.4 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 41.76% to 59.48% year-on-year [11] - Zhenlei Technology expects a net profit of 123 million to 145 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 529.64% to 642.26% [10] - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan for 2025, reversing a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in the previous year [12] Industry Insights - The aerospace sector is benefiting from policy support for a modern industrial system, with a focus on artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace, indicating long-term investment value [8] - The storage chip market is experiencing a price surge, with Samsung and SK Hynix negotiating significant price increases for low-power DRAM supplied to Apple, with increases exceeding 80% and 100% respectively [8] - The domestic aircraft manufacturing sector is seeing improvements in supply chain conditions, with COMAC expected to deliver no less than 28 C919 aircraft in 2026, increasing the share of domestic aircraft in China's civil aviation fleet from 1.3% in 2019 to 4.7% [8] - Japan's proposed $550 billion investment plan includes a project to build a synthetic diamond factory in the U.S., aimed at increasing the production of critical materials for chips and precision manufacturing [9]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenlei Technology (臻镭科技) expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a profit of between 123 million to 145 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 529.64% to 642.26% [3][13]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to rise by 103 million to 125 million yuan compared to the previous year [3][13]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 104 million to 123 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses with an increase of 1.07 billion to 1.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3678.27% to 4332.00% [3][13]. Business Drivers - The growth in performance is attributed to increased demand from downstream customers in the special integrated circuit industry, driven by the domestic special industry cycle [6][16]. - The company is actively seizing market opportunities in the satellite communication sector, leading to accelerated market expansion and improved project delivery capabilities, which significantly boosted sales revenue [6][16]. Market Position - Zhenlei Technology is recognized as a core component supplier in the commercial aerospace sector, with its stock price rising from a low of 55.84 yuan at the end of November 2025 to a historical high of 228.00 yuan by January 26, 2026, representing an increase of over 308% [7][17]. - As of January 27, 2026, the stock price closed at 208.10 yuan, with a market capitalization of 44.54 billion yuan [7][17]. Industry Outlook - The company is optimistic about the next three years, expecting to benefit from the rapid development of commercial aerospace and the increase in informationization and localization rates in special fields [10][20]. - In the special field, the company is expected to benefit from accelerated equipment construction and improvements in national defense informationization [10][20]. - In the satellite communication sector, Zhenlei Technology maintains a leading position in traditional remote sensing satellite projects and has established significant advantages in low-orbit satellite constellations [10][20]. Regulatory Issues - Zhenlei Technology received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission in December 2025 regarding an investigation into alleged violations of information disclosure laws, and the company has not yet received a conclusive opinion or decision on this matter [10][20].

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a volume contraction while showing signs of recovery, with the semiconductor chip industry chain strengthening [5][8] - The overall A-share market index increased by 0.14%, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index leading with a 1.51% increase [8][9] - The semiconductor chip industry is supported by increased capital expenditure from TSMC, rising AI demand, and a strengthened domestic substitution logic due to trade uncertainties [10] Economic Insights - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China is projected to reach CNY 73,982 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [18][19] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of CNY 4,020 billion at an interest rate of 1.40% [20][21] - By the end of 2025, the entrusted investment scale of the basic pension insurance fund is expected to exceed CNY 2.98 trillion [23][24] Industry Dynamics - The EU has introduced policies to promote the recycling of regenerated plastics, requiring member states to ensure that 30% of materials in specific beverage bottles are made from recycled plastics by 2030 [27][28] - In 2025, China's shipment of cathode materials is expected to reach 4.987 million tons, with a total output value of CNY 274.39 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 30.9% [29][30] - A coalition of multiple countries has signed the Hamburg Declaration to deliver 100GW of offshore wind power through large-scale joint projects [31][32] Company Tracking - China Merchants Securities (600999.SH) anticipates a 2025 net profit growth of 18.43%, with total revenue expected to reach CNY 24.9 billion [37][38] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ) forecasts a net profit of CNY 260-310 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 186.91% to 203.62% [40][41] - Leksin Medical (300562.SZ) expects a net profit growth of 32.00% to 38.52% in 2025, with projected profits between CNY 81 million and 85 million [42][43] - Dongfang Securities (600958.SH) projects a 67.8% increase in net profit for 2025, with total revenue expected to reach CNY 15.34 billion [44][45] - Weijie Chuangxin (688153.SH) anticipates a net profit of CNY 45 million in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [46][48] - Xiamen Tungsten (688778.SH) expects a net profit of approximately CNY 755 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 41.83% [49][50]

Group 1: Market Performance - Tuesday saw pressure on the market at the opening with selling, followed by a surge in buying as pressure eased in the afternoon, leading to a quick rebound in growth - related indices and then renewed selling pressure. The semiconductor sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 2.89 trillion yuan, showing a contraction compared to the previous period. The CSI 500 index closed at 8,548 points, up 42 points or 0.50%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 8,382 points, up 16 points or 0.20%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3,052 points, up 2 points or 0.09%; while the SSE 300 index closed at 4,705 points, down 1 point or - 0.03% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to Sino - Korean semiconductors, science - innovation semiconductors, etc. led the gains, while vaccine, coal, and agricultural ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices of the two markets, automotive chips, cultivated diamonds, etc. led the gains, and coke processing, aquaculture, etc. led the losses [1]. - Net inflows of settlement funds into CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index stock - index futures were 2.8 billion and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Important Information - China's commercial space industry faces challenges of urgent satellite applications and insufficient launch capacity. The keys to success are technological innovation (reusable rockets), efficiency improvement (batch production), and industrial ecosystem improvement. Current difficulties include limited launch sites, restricted resources, and insufficient application scenarios [1]. - The cost of the first - stage rocket body accounts for over 70%. Once reusable technology is achieved, the total rocket launch cost can be reduced by 40% - 60%. In 2026, many commercial rockets like Lijian - 2 and Tianlong - 3 are planned to be launched, with more attempts at reusable rockets to narrow the technological gap [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace deployed Tongyi Qianwen Qwen3 large - model to the "Star Computing" Plan 01 group space computing center, the world's first deployment of a general large - model from the ground to an in - orbit satellite. The whole process of uploading problems to the satellite, in - orbit reasoning by the large - model, and data return to the ground takes less than 2 minutes [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace announced a large - scale "Star Computing" Plan to deploy 2,400 inference - computing satellites and 400 training - computing satellites into 500 - 1000 km orbits, forming a global training - inference computing power network through satellite - to - ground and inter - satellite laser communication networking [1]. - The "Star Computing" Plan aims to achieve a constellation of over a thousand satellites and commercial operation by 2030, with over 95% being inference - computing satellites and on - orbit verification of large - scale training - computing satellites, and full constellation deployment by 2035, mainly serving silicon - based intelligent agents and AI model inference and training in land, sea, air, and space fields [1][2]. - Emerging market stock and bond ETFs had a total net inflow of $6.83 billion, continuing the 14 - week consecutive inflow trend, though slightly lower than the previous week. Chinese - related ETFs were the most favored, with $1.65 billion flowing into the Chinese market that week [2]. - TianShu Intelligence, a general GPU company, released a four - generation architecture roadmap, aiming to create a new paradigm of AI++ computing power system with the goal of "high - quality computing power" centered on "efficiency, predictability, and sustainability", and expects to surpass NVIDIA's Rubin architecture in 2027 [2]. - If the imbalance between supply and demand of memory chips persists until the first half of 2027, it could be an opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to narrow the technological gap as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron cannot meet global demand, but Chinese competitors may erode their advantages after the market cools down [2]. - Zijin Mining acquired United Gold for 28 billion yuan. United Gold's core assets include the Sadiola Gold Mine in Mali, a gold complex in Ivory Coast, and the Kurmuk Gold Mine in Ethiopia to be put into production in the second half of 2026. As of the end of 2024, United Gold had 533 tons of gold resources with an average grade of 1.48 grams per ton [2]. - Microsoft launched its second - generation self - developed AI chip Maia 200, a key step to reduce dependence on NVIDIA chips and more efficiently drive its own services. The chip, manufactured by TSMC using 3 - nanometer technology, has been deployed in a data center in Iowa, marking significant progress in Microsoft's self - developed chip field [2]. - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the US is like a powder keg on the verge of civil war, deeply in the "pre - collapse stage" with poor financial conditions and internal conflicts, and at risk of entering the sixth stage marked by the collapse of the existing order through civil war or revolution [2]. Group 3: Market Logic - The market situation on Tuesday was characterized by initial selling pressure, followed by a rebound in growth - related indices as buying emerged, and then renewed selling. Guoxing Aerospace's deployment of the large - model to the space computing center, the upcoming maturity of over 50 trillion yuan in long - term fixed - deposits of residents in 2026, SpaceX's plan to achieve full rocket reusability, and high - profile statements from financial institutions all influenced the market [1][2][3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that profit growth will be the core support for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2026, expecting A - share corporate profit growth to increase from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027, driven by AI, overseas expansion, and "anti - involution" [2]. - UBS indicates that international investors are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. The proportion of Chinese assets held by the top 40 international investment institutions tracked by UBS has reached a new high since 2023, and active overseas funds have started to increase their positions in Chinese assets [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - In 2026, over 50 trillion yuan in long - term fixed - deposits of residents will mature. Portfolio products like FOF and fund investment advisors are expected to be the preferred choices for banks to absorb the matured funds due to their risk - diversification and relatively stable returns [3]. - SpaceX plans to launch the second - generation Starlink cellular system in 2027, aiming for satellite - direct connection services similar to 5G on the ground, requiring the launch of 15,000 new satellites. The system's capacity will increase by over 100 times, and data throughput will increase by over 20 times [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2026, the net inflow of new capital into the Chinese stock market will exceed 3 trillion yuan, including about 2 trillion yuan from individual investors and over 1 trillion yuan from institutional investors [3]. - UBS's communication with overseas clients has heated up. Trading - oriented investors are actively increasing their positions in Chinese assets, and allocation - oriented investors are optimizing the weight of Chinese assets in their global portfolios while monitoring fundamentals and policy implementation [3]. - UBS Wealth Management's Investment Director's Office believes that the upward trend of the Chinese market is likely to continue in 2026, with advanced manufacturing and technological self - reliance becoming new growth engines. Global funds are increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and AI capabilities, valuation attractiveness, and resilience are the common logics. The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds into the Chinese capital market [3]. - The RMB is appreciating rapidly, with the offshore RMB exchange rate reaching 6.94, indicating a large - scale return of US dollars hoarded overseas by foreign - trade enterprises. After the New Year's Day, funds are flowing from enterprise accounts to resident accounts and then to securities accounts [3]. - Driven by the wealth effect, a large amount of off - market funds is still flowing in. After continuous selling, the scale of CSI 500 ETF held by policy funds, which was a little over 100 billion yuan, showed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday. Market funds may choose the CSI 500 index, representing mid - cap stocks, as a breakthrough point for an upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are still favored in the long - term [3]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - For stock - index futures directional trading, after continuous selling, the selling pressure of policy - held CSI 500 ETF showed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday. Market funds may choose the CSI 500 index, representing mid - cap stocks, as a breakthrough point for an upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are still favored in the long - term [3]. - For stock - index option trading, consider buying far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 1000 index [3].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial space industry is experiencing significant catalysts, particularly with SpaceX's upcoming Starship V3 test and the European Union's satellite communication initiatives [1]. Group 1: SpaceX Developments - SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced that the first test of the Starship V3 rocket will occur in six weeks, aiming to launch the next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into orbit [2][4]. - The Starship V3 features a lighter yet stronger stainless steel design, increased size (approximately 1.5 meters taller than V2), and enhanced capabilities to carry more propellant for longer missions [5]. - The Starship V3 will utilize 33 Raptor 3 engines, doubling its thrust and significantly increasing its payload capacity, allowing it to launch up to 100 Starlink satellites at once [6]. - The Starlink V3 satellites will have a data transmission speed of 1 Tbps and a latency of under 20 milliseconds, making them suitable for high-demand applications like finance and esports [6][9]. - By the end of 2025, Starlink is expected to cover 155 countries with over 9 million users, establishing a vast global communication network [8]. Group 2: European Union Initiatives - The EU has launched its government satellite communication project, GOVSATCOM, which provides secure satellite communication for military and governmental purposes [11]. - GOVSATCOM integrates existing military and commercial satellite communication capabilities across EU member states, with initial operations involving 8 satellites from 5 countries [11]. - The IRIS2 satellite internet system, consisting of nearly 290 satellites, is set to begin preliminary services in 2029, with the Ka military frequency already in use [12]. - The EU emphasizes the need for reusable launch vehicles and rapid response capabilities for space missions, highlighting the upcoming maiden flight of the Ariane 6 rocket, which can carry 20 tons into space [12].

北京火箭大街竣工，打造商业航天创新枢纽；推进上下游协同，形成完整产业链条；系统性出台支持商 业航天发展政策……新年伊始，作为全球创新网络关键枢纽，北京已形成涵盖卫星制造、火箭研制等全 产业链生态体系，在筑梦星辰大海的征程上大步向前。 近日，北京火箭大街项目现场，迎来一次充满未来感的"交接仪式"—— 来自北京亦庄的人形机器人"天工"将由一辆无人驾驶乘用车运送至北京火箭大街现场的《项目竣工联合 验收通过意见书》，郑重交到建设方北京亦庄星箭科技产业发展有限公司负责人手中，转达"受经开区 行政审批局委托，向你公司颁发北京火箭大街项目竣工联合验收通过意见书"。这一刻，银河航天的新 型低轨宽带通信卫星正飞跃火箭大街上空，让机器人"天工"和一部小米手机与低轨宽带互联网卫星连 通，完成全球首次"天地人机"实时互联的场景展示。 至此，作为北京市商业航天领域标杆工程，北京火箭大街项目完成竣工备案，进入交付启用阶段。建设 方北京亦庄星箭科技产业发展有限公司相关负责人介绍，该项目总建筑面积14.5万平方米，是全国首个 商业航天共性科研生产基地。未来，将可提供星箭研发、试验、智能制造、空天地一体化运控、产业培 育和公共服务等10余项共 ...

Group 1 - Dongfang Risen announced that its stock price had deviated by 30.10% over two consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading conditions. The company clarified that its photovoltaic products are not directly supplied to commercial aerospace satellite companies, and the application of "space photovoltaic" is still in the exploratory stage with uncertainties in industrialization [1] - Maiwei Co. reported a cumulative stock price deviation of over 30% over three consecutive trading days, also indicating abnormal trading conditions. The company emphasized that its main products are solar cell production equipment, including screen printing equipment and heterojunction cell production lines, and warned investors about the potential impact of market heat on future business expansion [1][2] - Junda Co. stated that its stock price had deviated by 20% over three consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading conditions. The company confirmed that its operations are normal and that the new fields it is exploring are still in the technical exploration phase, facing uncertainties in market space and industrialization pace [1][3] Group 2 - The recent market interest in "space photovoltaic" concepts has led to increased heat in related sectors, prompting companies to remind investors to be cautious about speculative risks and to maintain rational investment approaches [2]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 1月27日，军工ETF（512660）收涨超1.4%，昨日资金净流入近1亿元，基本面利好行业前景。 华福证券指出，投资端关注SpaceX产业链及国内火箭产业链。SpaceX方面，Starship今年目标完成 复用，V3卫星定档2027年，且SpaceX与特斯拉目标将太阳能产能提升至每年100GW，一旦Starship与V3 开始商业化部署，其速度只有超预期一种可能。国内方面，火箭 ...