随着2025年基金一季报的陆续披露，鑫元基金旗下多只产品展现出稳健的业绩表现和清晰的投资脉络。 从权益到固收，多位基金经理在季报中分享了其对市场的深刻洞察与策略调整。 权益投资：聚焦结构性机会 鑫元基金首席权益投资官陈立认为，展望二季度，美国关税政策能否有效推进、中美贸易冲突如何演 绎、国内经济运行状况以及积极政策的实施将是影响市场运行的重要宏观因素。基金将重点把握能顺应 产业趋势，带来效率优化与变革的产业机会。主要有：数字经济、人工智能、机器人、智能驾驶、医 药、新能源等。也将关注并购整合推动结构优化、财政发力带来消费受益的机会。 权益投资部负责人李彪在管的鑫元欣享在一季度加大了军工、科技股投资，特别是在AI硬件端，减少 了油服设备、传媒的投资。增加硬件侧投资的主要原因在于看到了大模型成本的快速下降，应用端有望 快速崛起，特别是AI眼镜等智能终端的需求。"AI 在各个垂直领域、各个产业方向如机器人、智能驾驶 的进展也如火如荼，我们紧密跟踪产业进展。消费板块，我们关注在低基数、消费频次高、价格更低的 消费板块，我们注意到中央经济工作会议强调消费并放在重要位置，所以未来一段时间可能也会关注对 性价比消费的持仓。 ...

Group 1 - The global automotive industry is increasingly focusing on the Chinese market, which is the largest and most competitive in the world [1] - Major automakers like BMW and Mercedes-Benz are integrating Chinese AI and smart driving technologies into their products to enhance user experience [1] - Audi's collaboration with Huawei to launch the A5L sedan with advanced driving assistance systems highlights the growing partnership between foreign automakers and Chinese tech firms [1] Group 2 - Momenta has formed partnerships with six major automotive brands, including General Motors and Toyota, to expand its influence in the smart driving market [2] - Volkswagen's investment in local smart driving company Horizon Robotics and the establishment of a joint venture demonstrate its commitment to participating in China's smart driving technology development [2] - Analysts note that China's role in the global automotive industry has shifted from a potential market to a core R&D hub, driven by its technological strength and innovation capabilities [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [10] Core Views - The target price for BYD shares is adjusted to HKD 458.8, representing a potential upside of 20% for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 444.0 for the A-share, with a potential upside of 23% [2][6] - BYD's first-quarter performance sets a growth tone for 2025, with a projected sales volume of 5.5 million vehicles for the year, driven by significant advancements in smart driving technology [10] - The report anticipates a doubling of BYD's overseas sales this year, while single-vehicle profitability is expected to remain stable [10] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for BYD from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 602,315 million - 2024: RMB 777,102 million - 2025E: RMB 892,238 million - 2026E: RMB 1,053,310 million - 2027E: RMB 1,186,221 million - Revenue growth rates are projected at 42% for 2023, 29% for 2024, and gradually decreasing to 13% by 2027 [3][11] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 30,041 million - 2024: RMB 40,254 million - 2025E: RMB 49,632 million - 2026E: RMB 60,562 million - 2027E: RMB 70,470 million - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 81% in 2023, 34% in 2024, and tapering to 16% by 2027 [3][11] Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, BYD's revenue reached RMB 170,360 million, a 36% year-on-year increase, while net profit doubled to RMB 9,155 million [12] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 20.1%, showing a decline of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [12] - The automotive sales volume in Q1 2025 was 1,000,804 units, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [12] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 28.0x for the electric vehicle segment, 17.0x for mobile and electronic businesses, and 10.0x for other segments, leading to target prices of HKD 458.8 and RMB 444.0 [10][14]

伐谋-中小盘信息更新 德赛西威（002920.SZ） Q1 业绩靓丽，首发全栈辅助驾驶解决方案 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 103.40 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 144.50/82.87 | | 总市值(亿元) | 573.82 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 570.26 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.55 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.52 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 74.87 | 中小盘研究团队 zhaoxuyang@kysec.cn 赵旭杨（分析师） 王镇涛（联系人） wangzhentao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070021 2025Q1 业绩稳健增长，发布智驾解决方案拓展成长空间 公司发布 2025 年一季报，2025Q1 实现营业收入 67.92 亿元，同比+20.26%；实 现归母净利润 5.82 亿元，同比+51.32%；实现扣非净利润 4.97 亿元，同比+34.08%， 2025Q1 非经常性损益为 0.85 亿，主要由于处 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth in 2024, with total operating income reaching 60.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.825 billion yuan, up 160.36% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total operating income of 15.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.06%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 21.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.247 billion yuan, up 138.2% year-on-year and 74.19% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's revenue from major business segments in 2024 included modified plastics (32.075 billion yuan), materials trading (12.371 billion yuan), green petrochemicals (11.436 billion yuan), and new materials (3.654 billion yuan), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 18.95%, 61.77%, 22.30%, and 15.73% [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The modified plastics segment remains the largest, with a production capacity of 3.72 million tons per year and sales volume of 2.5515 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.78% [3] - The company is actively expanding its market share in emerging fields such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy, leveraging its competitive advantages in modified plastics [3] Group 3: International Expansion - In 2024, the company's revenue from mainland China and overseas was 51.306 billion yuan and 8.792 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29.68% and 10.73% [4] - The company is accelerating local supply and service capabilities in overseas markets, achieving significant results in the U.S., Europe, India, Vietnam, and Malaysia [4] Group 4: Strategic Development - The company is a leading domestic player in the special engineering plastics sector, achieving import substitution in markets such as LED lighting and new energy vehicles, with sales of 23,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.59% [5] - The company has plans to increase production capacity for various specialty resins, with projects expected to come online between 2025 and 2026 [5] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to see net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.451 billion yuan, 2.069 billion yuan, and 2.460 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 19.4, 13.6, and 11.4 [6] - The company is rated as "overweight" based on its competitive position and comprehensive product offerings in the global chemical new materials industry [6]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "BBA" brands (Benz, BMW, Audi) are re-entering consumer focus amid a product-scarce era, with domestic brands achieving a market share of 60% in 2024 [1] - The penetration rate of L2 and above advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) in new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 60% as of Q1 2025, leading globally [1] - Concerns over safety and quality have emerged among consumers regarding new technologies, prompting traditional luxury brands to regain visibility in the market [1] Group 2: Traditional Luxury Brands' Response - Traditional luxury brands like "BBA" are facing a development cycle of 3-5 years for new vehicles, which has temporarily placed them behind in terms of smart technology [2] - At the Shanghai Auto Show, "BBA" brands launched new models and showcased advancements in smart technology to catch up with domestic brands [2] Group 3: Mercedes-Benz Innovations - Mercedes-Benz introduced several new models, including the pure electric CLA long-wheelbase version, which is touted as their "smartest" vehicle to date [3] - The CLA features advanced driver assistance capabilities developed in collaboration with Momenta, enabling full-scenario assistance from parking to complex road conditions [3] - The CLA is equipped with the self-developed MB.OS operating system, enhancing user experience with improved voice recognition and AI capabilities [4] Group 4: Performance Metrics of Mercedes-Benz - The CLA achieves a CLTC range of 866 kilometers with an 85 kWh battery, and a power consumption of only 10.9 kWh per 100 kilometers, despite weighing over 2.1 tons [5] - The vehicle's two-speed transmission system is a key innovation, allowing for significant battery savings and cost reductions [5] - The complexity of the two-speed transmission system requires extensive R&D and testing, which is a strength for Mercedes-Benz given its history in system engineering [7] Group 5: BMW's Focus on Driving Experience - BMW is prioritizing cockpit technology and driving dynamics, collaborating with Alibaba to integrate AI models into new generation vehicles [9] - The new cockpit design features a large projection screen and a tilted central control screen, enhancing user interaction while maintaining a focus on driving performance [10] - BMW's new generation concept car demonstrated advanced capabilities, including a distributed four-motor system and a significant increase in computational speed for vehicle dynamics [10][11] Group 6: Competitive Landscape - The competition between domestic brands and traditional luxury brands is intensifying, with both sides aiming for a balance between smart technology and quality [12] - The advancements from "BBA" brands serve as a reminder of their enduring advantages, while domestic brands continue to excel in product offerings and cost-effectiveness [12]

Core Viewpoint - Recent research by浦银国际证券有限公司 on BYD (002594) indicates a downward adjustment of the target price to RMB 444.0, maintaining a "buy" rating based on strong sales forecasts and performance in the electric vehicle sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - BYD's Q1 2025 net profit exceeded market expectations, reaching RMB 91.6 billion, a 100% year-on-year increase, significantly influenced by approximately RMB 1.9 billion in financial income [3]. - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 1,704 billion, a 36% year-on-year growth, despite a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline [3]. - The automotive sales volume grew by 60% year-on-year, while electronic revenue growth was moderate, and the average selling price of vehicles decreased, impacting overall revenue growth [3]. Group 2: Sales and Market Outlook - The company maintains a sales forecast of 5.5 million vehicles for the year, driven by significant advancements in smart driving technology [2]. - BYD's overseas sales are expected to double this year, contributing to overall growth [2]. - The company showcased its technological capabilities at the recent Shanghai Auto Show, promoting various brands and models to enhance sales [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Estimates - The valuation for BYD is based on a segmented approach, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 28.0x for the new energy vehicle segment, 17.0x for mobile and electronic businesses, and 10.0x for other businesses, leading to target prices of HKD 458.8 and RMB 444.0 [3]. - Current P/E ratios for BYD's Hong Kong and A-shares are 18.5x and 18.2x, respectively, indicating attractive valuation levels [2][3]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, 39 institutions have provided ratings for BYD, with 34 "buy" ratings and 5 "hold" ratings, reflecting strong market confidence [5].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21,973 points, down 7 points, with a trading range of only 255 points, indicating a lack of direction in the market[1] - The market turnover was approximately HKD 163.8 billion, the lowest since February 4[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 2.12 billion[1] Sector Performance - Major banks and some consumer brands showed strong performance, with four major banks rising between 0.7% and 2.8%[1] - Stocks like Mixue Group and Pop Mart surged between 4.1% and 12.0%, reaching new highs since their listings[1] - Yao Cai Securities saw a significant increase of 81.9% to HKD 5.55, following Ant Group's acquisition[1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of China's PMI data and the U.S. GDP for Q1 is expected to increase market volatility[1] - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 23.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the real estate market[3] Valuation and Strategy - The current PE ratio of the Hang Seng Index is approximately 9.7 times, suggesting limited downside but requiring effective internal policies for upward movement[2] - Key focus areas for investment include AI infrastructure, consumer demand, and high-dividend state-owned enterprises[2] Coal Market Insights - Yancoal Australia reported a 12.8% year-on-year decline in average coal prices to AUD 157 per ton, influenced by strong market supply[7] - The company’s coal production increased by 8.0% to 9.5 million tons, but sales only rose by 1.2% due to inventory rebuilding[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include production delays, fluctuations in electricity and steel market demand, and geopolitical uncertainties[11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase in 2024 but a decline in net profit, while showing strong growth in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in market demand and improved profitability in certain segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 253 million yuan, a decrease of 31.02% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.23%, and a net profit of 212 million yuan, a significant increase of 78.46% [1]. Market Demand and Business Segments - The traditional LED market showed signs of recovery in 2024, with high-end product segments maintaining strong demand, leading to improved revenue and profit in the LED business [2]. - The integrated circuit segment benefited from a recovery in downstream demand driven by artificial intelligence and consumer electronics, with the global semiconductor market continuing to recover [2]. - The demand for silicon carbide (SiC) products is growing, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaic storage, and AI, indicating a potential second growth curve for the company [3]. Product Development and Capacity Expansion - The company has established a monthly production capacity of 16,000 pieces for 6-inch silicon carbide substrates and is expanding its 8-inch silicon carbide production [3]. - The company has completed a full range of silicon carbide diode products and is actively supplying to key customers, indicating strong market positioning in the industrial-grade market [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 20.97 billion yuan, 25.646 billion yuan, and 31.416 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.638 billion yuan, 2.501 billion yuan, and 3.169 billion yuan respectively [4]. - A target price of 14.78 yuan is set based on a 45 times PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "Buy-A" investment rating [4].

Core Insights - Momenta announced further strategic collaborations with six major brands during the Shanghai Auto Show, including General Motors Buick, FAW Toyota, Honda China, Cadillac, SAIC Audi, and Zhiji [1][3] - The company has seen a significant increase in the number of mass-produced models delivered, from 1 model in 2022 to 8 in 2023, and projected to reach 26 models in 2024 [3] - Momenta's cumulative number of cooperative mass-produced models has exceeded 130, with an accelerating growth rate in successful deliveries [3] Delivery and Growth Metrics - The first 100,000 units equipped with Momenta's technology took two years to achieve, while the second 100,000 units were completed in just six months [3] - The company expects to complete the third batch of nearly 100,000 units by May of this year [3] Global Partnerships - Momenta's partners now include major global automakers such as Honda, Nissan, Chery, Audi, Volkswagen, and Cadillac, indicating a broad market reach [3] Technological Advancements - The "Flywheel Model" is a key upgrade in Momenta's algorithm capabilities, with plans to launch the end-to-end Momenta R6 Flywheel Model based on reinforcement learning in the second half of this year [5] - Momenta's intelligent driving solutions do not require high-precision maps, providing an advantage for deployment in various global markets [5] Focus on Robotaxi Development - Momenta is focusing on the development of autonomous Robotaxi services, addressing the challenge of safety standards for large-scale deployment [7] - The company aims to achieve safety levels for Robotaxi operations that are equivalent to or exceed human driving standards as fleet sizes grow [7] - The first mass-produced Robotaxi solution is set to launch this year, utilizing existing sensors and computing units to reduce costs [7] - The initial batch of unmanned Robotaxis is expected to enter trial operations by the end of 2025, offering users automated driving services [7]