Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining liquidity in the banking system through various monetary policy tools, including a significant reverse repurchase operation in April, indicating a potential shift towards more accommodative monetary policy in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In April, the PBOC conducted a reverse repurchase operation totaling 1.2 trillion yuan, with 700 billion yuan for 3-month terms and 500 billion yuan for 6-month terms [1][3]. - The net withdrawal from the 3-month reverse repo in April was 500 billion yuan, concluding a period of sustained liquidity release since October of the previous year [1][4]. - The reduction in the scale of reverse repo operations does not imply a tightening of market liquidity, as historical trends show a substitutive relationship between reserve requirement ratio cuts and medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations [1][4]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Significant reverse repo maturities are expected in May and June, with 900 billion yuan maturing in May and 5 trillion yuan and 1.4 trillion yuan maturing in June [4]. - Analysts suggest that the reduction in reverse repo operations may signal a forthcoming reserve requirement ratio cut, aimed at injecting long-term liquidity into the market to support bank lending and economic growth [4][5]. - The issuance of special government bonds is set to accelerate in the second and third quarters, which may influence the timing of monetary policy easing [4][5]. Group 3: Government Bonds and Monetary Policy - Government bonds are anticipated to continue increasing in volume in the second quarter, supported by a more diversified liquidity supply through various monetary policy tools [5]. - The PBOC may resume government bond purchases and expand reverse repo operations or implement reserve requirement ratio cuts to ensure adequate liquidity for upcoming bond issuances [5].

他建议，因当前经济主要矛盾仍为需求不足，且外部环境仍存更大的不确定性，各地区各部门应将扩大 内需作为下阶段首要工作任务。 具体来看，财政政策方面，应加快今年已安排的4.4万亿元地方政府专项债券、1.3万亿元超长期特别国 债等发行使用，加力扩围落实"两重"建设与"两新"工作，为后续增量财政政策加码留出空间。 【大河财立方 记者 夏晨翔】4月30日，国家统计局发布了2025年4月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商 务活动指数、综合PMI产出指数。 其中，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，回落至收缩区间。非制造业商 务活动指数为50.4%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.2%，比上月下降1.2个百分点， 均高于临界点。 作为经济监测最重要的指标之一，指数变化有何重要意义？对此，大河财立方记者专访了经济学家、新 质未来研究院院长张奥平。 "4月PMI录得数据为49.0%，显示经济受外部冲击影响加大，扩内需紧迫性加强。"张奥平分析称，美国 发动的全球新一轮关税战使我国外需承压，且内部有效需求仍显不足，下阶段需加快地方政府专项债 券、超长期特别国债等存量政策的发行使用，同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, trade situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and products show diverse trends, with some in a weak state and others showing signs of recovery or stability [7][8][9]. - For most products, short - term market sentiment and long - term supply - demand fundamentals jointly determine price trends. Traders need to consider both short - term fluctuations and long - term impacts when making decisions [17][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China emphasizes Shanghai's role in building an international science and technology innovation center. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to the US on the tariff war. As of April 30, 2024, A - share listed companies' annual revenue and net profit decreased year - on - year. The central bank releases housing loan interest rate data. The US has certain statements on tariffs and job vacancies, and China's coal industry focuses on import order [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The market expects China's April official manufacturing PMI to decline, with enterprises under pressure from the tariff storm. The policy stance is clear, and the strategy suggests considering option covered strategies [7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market is strong due to factors such as loose funds, expected low PMI, and reduced trade volume. The policy focuses on fiscal policy, and the long - term and ultra - long - term bonds are still strong, with a flat yield curve. It is recommended that cautious investors wait and see [7]. 3.4 Container Shipping on European Routes - The price of Maersk's WEEK20 quotation has dropped, and the market is in a weak and volatile state. Before the holiday, the market is expected to remain weak, and the future price depends on the supply - demand structure. It is recommended to take appropriate profit on short positions before the holiday [8]. 3.5 Cotton - International and domestic cotton prices are under pressure due to factors such as the US tariff issue, demand concerns, and supply - side factors. Domestic cotton is in a weak position at a low level, and attention should be paid to domestic export trends [9]. 3.6 Sugar - International and domestic sugar prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, contract expiration, and weather. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the 9 - 1 spread may rebound [9][10]. 3.7 Oils and Fats - **Palm oil**: It is in a short - term multi - empty intertwined state, affected by factors such as seasonal production increase and demand improvement [10]. - **Soybean meal**: The supply pressure will increase in the future, and the short - term price follows the spot market [11]. 3.8 Eggs - The egg price is weak, and the supply may increase in the future. It is recommended to have a short - bias operation on egg futures, and reduce short positions before the holiday [12][13]. 3.9 Apples - The spot price is strong, and the inventory is low. The new - season production needs to be evaluated due to weather impacts. It is recommended to lightly buy near - month contracts at low prices [13][14]. 3.10 Red Dates - The market is in a traditional off - season, and the price is weak. Attention should be paid to the growth of jujube trees and downstream stocking [14]. 3.11 Live Pigs - The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure may increase after the holiday. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias and light positions [14][15][16]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The international oil price is falling due to OPEC+ production increase and weak demand. The future trend will be mainly driven by production increase and economic recession, and may be repaired if the trade war eases [17]. 3.13 Fuel Oil - It follows the oil price decline, and the future performance depends on the demand's ability to bear the production increase under the influence of the trade war [18]. 3.14 Plastics - L and PP are recommended to be short - biased, and the long - term trade situation is not optimistic [19]. 3.15 Rubber - It is in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold and wait for the RU - NR spread [19]. 3.16 Methanol - It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and short - bias allocation can be considered if there is a rebound [20]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - The price of high - concentration caustic soda is falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.18 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda ash**: The price may rebound slightly in the short term but is restricted in the long term by high supply and inventory [20]. - **Glass**: The price is expected to be volatile or weakly volatile due to weak demand [20]. 3.19 Asphalt - The price is expected to be in the range of 3300 - 3400, and the inventory reduction provides support [21]. 3.20 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - It mainly follows the oil price, and the future price may be in a volatile state with a long - term downward trend in the center [21]. 3.21 Pulp - It has a pattern of weak demand and high inventory, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [21]. 3.22 Logs - The demand is weak, and the short - term is expected to be volatile. Short on rebounds in the short term and buy out - of - the - money call options in the long term [21]. 3.23 Urea - The spot price is rising, and the futures price is falling. It is recommended to sell at high prices in the short term and wait and see during the holiday [21]. 3.24 Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: It is expected to be volatile and strong, continuing to repair the decline caused by tariffs [22]. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and lightly go long for cost support in the long term [22]. 3.25 Lithium Carbonate - It is recommended to adopt a volatile trading idea, as the short - term price decline may narrow [22]. 3.26 Steel and Iron Ore - The steel and iron ore market is under pressure in the medium - long term, and the steel price may be volatile in the short term [22][23]. 3.27 Coal and Coke - The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there are no conditions for long - positions for now [24]. 3.28 Ferroalloys - **Silicon iron**: Go long during the day. - **Manganese silicon**: Sell the 06 - contract put option [24][25].

Core Insights - Richard Clarida argues that the common belief attributing the success of the Plaza and Louvre Accords primarily to coordinated foreign exchange interventions is a myth, emphasizing that U.S. domestic monetary and fiscal policy adjustments were the true driving forces behind the dollar's depreciation and the reduction of the trade deficit [1][2][3] Group 1: Historical Context - The Plaza Accord was signed in September 1985 by the G5 nations to address the soaring dollar and increasing trade deficit, which reached about 3% of GDP [2] - The Louvre Accord followed in February 1987, aiming to stabilize the dollar after it had depreciated sufficiently [2] - By 1989, the U.S. trade deficit as a percentage of GDP had decreased by two-thirds, leading many to mistakenly credit foreign exchange interventions for this outcome [2][3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - Clarida highlights that the significant easing of U.S. monetary policy under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was the key factor in the dollar's depreciation [4] - From October 1984 to December 1986, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates from 12% to 6%, which correlated with the weakening of the dollar [4][5] - The decline in U.S. interest rates diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, prompting capital to flow to currencies with higher yields [5] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Role - U.S. fiscal adjustments also played a crucial role in reducing the trade deficit, with significant budget cuts leading to a nearly 40% reduction in the budget deficit [6] - The initial Plaza Accord emphasized the need for fiscal adjustments in the U.S., Japan, and Germany to address global trade imbalances, which were effectively implemented in the U.S. [6] Group 4: Contemporary Implications - Clarida discusses the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" concept proposed during Trump's presidency, which aims to apply lessons from the Plaza Accord to current trade issues [7] - He expresses skepticism about the feasibility of using past experiences to guide current policy, citing limited monetary policy space, unclear fiscal prospects, and complex geopolitical dynamics as significant challenges [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 29, most of the four major A-share stock indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling by 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.13% respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose by 0.1%. Market trading volume decreased by 35 billion yuan compared to the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, public utilities, communications, and beauty care led the gains, while real estate, pharmaceutical biology, and coal led the losses [2]. - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 129.78, 117.71, 50.28, and 24.31 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -15.7%, -15%, -9.51%, and -6.56%. After the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, stock index fluctuations increased significantly. The short-term index may be oversold. Attention should be paid to signs of tariff relaxation and structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize synchronously. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The valuation of IF is low, and it is recommended to make long-term investments at low prices [3]. - On April 29, treasury bond futures rose across the board. Recently, the short-term capital market is neutral. With the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order, global trade uncertainty has increased significantly. In the short term, the safe-haven property of treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the order of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long-term prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows further improvement, it is expected that long-term treasury bond prices will gradually cool down and the yield curve will become steeper [3][4]. - High-frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data - High-frequency data indicates a slight increase in the recent infrastructure boom [6]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance | Code | Name | Change (%) | Current Price | Change | Volume | Turnover (10,000 yuan) | Open Interest | Daily Change in Open Interest | Settlement Price | Basis | Annualized Basis Yield (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IC2505 | CSI 2505 | 0.24 | 5573.8 | 13.4 | 19806 | 2204954 | 47845 | -2300 | 5572.8 | 31.1 | -12.6 | | IC2506 | CSI 2506 | 0.23 | 5487.2 | 12.8 | 34048 | 3731914 | 95869 | -211 | 5487.6 | 117.7 | -15.0 | | IC2509 | CSI 2509 | 0.25 | 5360.8 | 13.2 | 7370 | 789232 | 44957 | 792 | 5360.6 | 244.1 | -10.9 | | IC2512 | CSI 2512 | 0.41 | 5275.6 | 21.8 | 3696 | 388947 | 10261 | 887 | 5266.6 | 329.3 | -9.2 | | IC500 | CSI 500 | 0.12 | 5604.9 | 6.6 | 12674292700 | 15803300 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | IF2505 | SSE-CSI 2505 | -0.21 | 3757.8 | -7.8 | 17994 | 2029214 | 46271 | -3286 | 3758.4 | 17.3 | -10.4 | | IF2506 | SSE-CSI 2506 | -0.21 | 3724.8 | -8.0 | 37569 | 4199484 | 134140 | -200 | 3725.8 | 50.3 | -9.5 | | IF2509 | SSE-CSI 2509 | -0.15 | 3670.0 | -5.6 | 6039 | 664974 | 54843 | 67 | 3670.2 | 105.1 | -7.0 | | IF2512 | SSE-CSI 2512 | -0.12 | 3645.6 | -4.2 | 2045 | 223522 | 5819 | 461 | 3643.8 | 129.5 | -5.4 | | IF300 | SSE-CSI 300 | -0.17 | 3775.1 | -6.5 | 11151469400 | 19746274 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | IH2505 | SSE 2505 | -0.32 | 2639.0 | -8.6 | 9490 | 751984 | 17294 | -724 | 2640 | 6.5 | -5.6 | | IH2506 | SSE 2506 | -0.35 | 2621.2 | -9.2 | 20683 | 1628147 | 43068 | 452 | 2623.2 | 24.3 | -6.6 | | IH2509 | SSE 2509 | -0.28 | 2589.8 | -7.2 | 2672 | 207741 | 16917 | 36 | 2590.8 | 55.7 | -5.3 | | IH2512 | SSE 2512 | -0.35 | 2583.4 | -9.2 | 619 | 48041 | 1492 | 41 | 2586.2 | 62.1 | -3.7 | | IH50 | SSE 50 | -0.22 | 2645.5 | -5.7 | 2804263100 | 5389422 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | IM2505 | China 1000 2505 | 0.60 | 5868.0 | 35.0 | 38130 | 4462992 | 63293 | -4736 | 5864.8 | 35.4 | -13.6 | | IM2506 | China 1000 2506 | 0.70 | 5773.6 | 40.4 | 116166 | 13372787 | 159461 | 203 | 5769 | 129.8 | -15.7 | | IM2509 | China 1000 2509 | 0.64 | 5610.0 | 35.4 | 18463 | 2066494 | 69978 | -1510 | 5607 | 293.4 | -12.4 | | IM2512 | China 1000 2512 | 0.56 | 5478.2 | 30.4 | 6083 | 665528 | 17620 | 884 | 5478.4 | 425.2 | -11.3 | | IM1000 | CSI 1000 | 0.45 | 5903.4 | 26.3 | 18602339400 | 21941178 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | [10] (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance | Code | 2-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Price | 102.3 | 106.1 | 109.1 | 121.0 | | Change (%) | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.69 | | Volume | 34240 | 50163 | 51372 | 77545 | | Turnover (10,000 yuan) | 7008580 | 5318695 | 5600931 | 9361494 | | Open Interest | 93075 | 157294 | 192474 | 106469 | | Daily Change in Open Interest | -1495 | -717 | 5655 | 1926 | | CTD Bond | 240024.IB | 240014.IB | 240025.IB | 200012.IB | | Yield Change (bps) | -1.00 | -1.75 | -3.12 | -3.10 | | Net Basis | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | | Quantile | 27.00% | 12.30% | 8.30% | 13.10% | | IRR | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | | Quantile | 70.90% | 94.80% | 94.00% | 87.20% | [12] Short-Term Capital Interest Rate Market Changes | | Current Price | Previous Price | One Week Ago | One Month Ago | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHIBOR: Overnight | 1.54 | 1.60 | 1.71 | 1.73 | | DR001 | 1.54 | 1.59 | 1.70 | 1.72 | | SHIBOR: One Week | 1.75 | 1.72 | 1.67 | 1.94 | | DR007 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.71 | 2.05 | [15]

利率专题 5 月，债市关键词 2025 年 04 月 29 日 展望 5 月，基本面如何演绎？政策发力推进下，财政与货币如何配合？央行 态度和资金面怎么看？债市能否迎来破局？本文聚焦于此。 ➢ 4 月利率向下，曲线演绎牛平 从 4 月债市表现来看：上旬在"超预期对等关税"和"对应反制关税"背景 下，货币宽松预期进一步增强，催化利率快速下行，10 年国债收益率下至 1.63%， 30 年国债收益率下至 1.83%；进入中下旬，中美关税政策边际缓和，财政供给 放量预期和短期政策保持定力，多空交织下债市方向尚不明朗，维持窄幅波动。 结合高频数据来观察：4 月 EPMI 指数大幅回落 10.2 个百分点至 49.4%；4 月汽车全钢胎开工率和半钢胎开工率连续多周出现回落；4 月 SCFI 指数、BDI 指 数呈现下滑态势，表现弱于季节性水平，一定程度指向出口边际转弱。 （2）政府债供给压力如何？随着大行注资特别国债和超长期特别国债启动 发行，以及新增专项债供给可能提速，预估二季度政府债供给压力仍不小，5-6 月或是发行高峰，供给压力的抬升可能加大市场扰动，而当中的关键又在于，央 行会如何对冲操作以配合财政发力？ （3 ...

沃什指出并警告美联储政治化的危险是正确的。普遍报道称，当特朗普在第一任期选择美联储主席时， 沃什也曾被考虑，也许他会在特朗普的第二任期中再次被考虑。 这倒不是说是因为他的演讲会让他受世界各国央行和媒体精英的欢迎，但沃什正在给美联储官员和其他 央行行长提供好的建议——至少如果他们想重新获得公众失去的信任，并避免对其货币政策独立性发起 严重挑战。 沃什补充道，美联储还漫步到资产配置和有争议的政治问题。住房危机结束很久之后，美联储购买抵押 贷款支持证券补贴了房地产市场。2021年，随着民主党掌控国会和白宫，美联储迎合了关于气候变化的 进步政治优先事项，甚至似乎针对特定人口群体的失业率。 他总结道，所有这些本质上都是保留给政府的政治问题。美联储越是将此类优先事项作为货币或监管政 策的目标，就越会进入政治纷争，并招致政界人士质疑其独立性。鲍威尔近年来已从这些努力中退步， 但损害已经造成。 美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评主导着关于美联储的评论，但在当前经济政策不确定性的时 期，一场更重要、更迫切需要的辩论正在进行。那就是：美联储的适当角色是什么？它是否以损害其独 立性的方式超越了其职权范围？这是市场认为的"影子美 ...

Group 1: Market Data Summary Gold - Shanghai gold futures: On April 28, 2025, the closing price was 780.04, down 7.16 from the previous day and 51.38 from the previous week. The trading volume was 543,425, down 119,247 from the previous day and 329,155 from the previous week. The open interest was 204,671, down 53,099 from the previous week. The inventory was 15,648 kg, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 kg from the previous week [1]. - Shanghai gold spot (Au T+D): The closing price was 778.22 yuan/gram, down 6.71 from the previous day and 48.45 from the previous week. The trading volume was 68,346, up 3,326 from the previous day and down 56,122 from the previous week. The open interest was 217,932, down 7,262 from the previous day and 7,380 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX gold futures: The closing price was 3,354.80, up 24.60 from the previous day and 13.50 from the previous week. The trading volume was 215,264, down 19,751 from the previous day and 20,095 from the previous week. The open interest was 324,294, down 3,356 from the previous day and 29,345 from the previous week. The inventory was 41,705,859.42 troy ounces, unchanged from the previous day and down 1,503,863.55 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot: The price was 3,277.30 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day and down 28.35 from the previous week [1]. Silver - Shanghai silver futures: The closing price was 8,168.00 yuan/ten grams, down 112.00 from the previous day and 6.00 from the previous week. The trading volume was 642,831, up 4,704 from the previous day and down 308,586 from the previous week. The open interest was 280,886, down 31,364 from the previous day and 58,707 from the previous week. The inventory was 934,421 ten - gram units, up 10,825 from the previous day and 10,693 from the previous week [1]. - Shanghai silver spot (Ag T+D): The closing price was 8,173.00 yuan/ten grams, down 97.00 from the previous day and up 19.00 from the previous week. The trading volume was 471,636, up 50,462 from the previous day and down 307,232 from the previous week. The open interest was 3,578,110, up 4,070 from the previous day and down 104,152 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures: The closing price was 33.08 dollars/ounce, up 0.05 from the previous day and 0.53 from the previous week. The trading volume was 38,136, down 13,986 from the previous day and 11,451 from the previous week. The open interest was 27,404, down 6,748 from the previous day and 28,611 from the previous week. The inventory was 499,103,540.55 troy ounces, up 1,195,298.48 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot: The price was 32.31 dollars/ounce, up 1.03 from the previous week [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - Gold - to - silver price ratios: Shanghai gold futures/Shanghai silver futures was 95.07, down 6.22 from the previous week; Shanghai gold spot/Shanghai silver spot was 95.22, down 6.16 from the previous week; New York gold futures/New York silver futures was 101.43, down 1.24 from the previous week; London gold spot/London silver spot was 98.31, down 4.00 from the previous week [1]. - Other commodities: INE crude oil was 498.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.90 from the previous day and 15.30 from the previous week; ICE Brent crude was 64.53 dollars/barrel, down 1.30 from the previous day and 3.32 from the previous week; NYMEX crude was 61.89 dollars/barrel, down 1.28 from the previous day and 1.86 from the previous week; Shanghai copper futures was 77,580.00 yuan/ton, up 140.00 from the previous day and 460.00 from the previous week; LME copper spot was 9,360.00 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 9.00 from the previous week; Shanghai rebar was 3,101.00 yuan/ton, up 28.00 from the previous day and 54.00 from the previous week; Dalian iron ore was 709.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50 from the previous day and down 0.50 from the previous week [1]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Indices - Interest rates: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.60%, up 0.04 from the previous day and down 0.11 from the previous week; SHIBOR one - year was 1.77%, unchanged. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2300%, down 0.06 from the previous day and 0.11 from the previous week; the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.9800%, down 0.04 from the previous day and 0.13 from the previous week; the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.2500%, down 0.02 from the previous day and up 0.02 from the previous week [1]. - Exchange rates: The US dollar index was 98.9357, down 0.65 from the previous day and 0.49 from the previous week; the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.2043, unchanged; the euro - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 8.2125, down 0.01 from the previous day and 0.11 from the previous week [1]. - Stock indices: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,288.4147, down 6.65 from the previous day and 11.34 from the previous week; the S&P 500 was 5,528.7500, up 3.54 from the previous day and 246.05 from the previous week; the UK FTSE 100 was 8,417.3400, up 2.09 from the previous day and 141.68 from the previous week; the French CAC40 was 7,573.7600, up 37.50 from the previous day and 287.90 from the previous week; the German DAX was 22,271.6700, up 29.22 from the previous day and 1,065.81 from the previous week; the Nikkei 225 was 35,839.9900, up 134.25 from the previous day and 1,462.39 from the previous week; the South Korean Composite Index was 2,548.8600, up 2.56 from the previous day and 78.45 from the previous week [1]. Group 2: Important Information Gold - The US Treasury's Q2 borrowing expectation was significantly raised by over three times, but after excluding the debt - ceiling impact, it decreased. Bessemer has a new bond - issuing strategy: stable short - term bonds, slow long - term bonds, and close attention to stablecoins [1]. - The US Dallas Fed's business activity index in April was - 35.8, lower than the expected - 14.1 and the previous value of - 16.3 [1]. Silver - The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. On April 10, an agreement on the budget resolution was reached, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut over the next decade, a 5 - billion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling, and a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The US Treasury's Q2 borrowing was 51.4 billion dollars, three times higher than expected, but after excluding the debt - ceiling impact, the borrowing demand was lower than expected. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that the Treasury's funds might be exhausted as early as October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The US may reduce the tariff levels on China and other countries, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in June, September, October, or December [1]. Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, reducing the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs in the eurozone, Germany, and France in April were 48.7, 48, and 48.2 respectively, higher than expected but lower than the previous values. The annual CPI rates in the eurozone and Germany in August were 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, lower than expected and the previous values. European Central Bank economists predicted a neutral interest rate of 1.75 - 2.25%, suggesting that the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England kept the key interest rate at 4.5% in March and continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The annual CPI (core CPI) rates in the UK in February were 2.8% (below 3.5%), lower than expected and the previous values. The S&P Global PMI for manufacturing and services in April was 44 and 48.95 respectively, lower than expected and the previous values. The GDP growth rate in January was - 0.1%, lower than expected and the previous value, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in May and potentially 2 - 3 more rate cuts before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark rate to 0.5%. It has been reducing the quarterly government - bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru plans to coordinate a 2025 supplementary budget to distribute a 50,000 - yen subsidy per person (with a total scale of nearly 10 trillion yen) and a 2 - trillion - yen tax cut on daily necessities. The annual CPI rates in Tokyo in March and April were 3.6% and 3.5% respectively (lower and higher than expected and the previous values). The largest Japanese labor union, Rengo, achieved an average salary increase of 5.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second or third quarter, leading to market expectations of a rate hike around July [1]. Group 3: Core View and Trading Strategy - Due to the expectations of interest - rate cuts and fiscal easing by central banks in multiple countries, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, precious - metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,150 - 3,250 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 750 - 770 and the resistance level around 850 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 and the resistance level around 35 - 36. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800/8,000 and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore futures price is expected to show an oscillatory trend. Although the arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the port inventory increased. The daily output of hot metal is close to the peak and is expected to remain high for some time, strongly supporting the demand for iron ore. The profitability of steel mills has improved, with off - peak electricity changing from loss to profit [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On the night session of Monday, the main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 7110, up 0.57% [1] Important Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out on April 25 that it is necessary to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, make full use of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, speed up the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and take timely measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [1] - Last week, the supply of five major steel products was 875,840 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,130 tons or 0.4%. The total inventory was 1,534,270 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,410 tons or 3.2%. The weekly consumption was 926,250 tons, with the consumption of building materials down 6.9% and that of plates down 0.7% week - on - week [1] - In the first quarter, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China changed from a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% in the previous year to an increase of 0.8% [1] Market Logic - The arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, but the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the port inventory increased. The daily output of hot metal is close to the peak and is expected to remain high for some time, strongly supporting the demand for iron ore. The profitability of steel mills has improved, with off - peak electricity changing from loss to profit. Overall, the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory trend [1] Trading Strategy - As the holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position or an empty position [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade conflicts, it is expected that starting from the April PMI, data will gradually reflect the pressure, increasing the urgency to boost domestic demand. A loose monetary environment is needed, and short - and medium - term treasury bond yields are expected to decline significantly, followed by long - term bond yields potentially breaking previous lows [28]. - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner, more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral [28]. - For REITs, project fundamentals show increasing differentiation. In the second quarter, rental housing, consumption, and public utility projects may maintain resilience, while industrial parks and logistics warehousing projects may face headwinds [28]. - The current fundamentals are favorable for the bond market. It is advisable to buy on dips. Interest rates are expected to be narrowly volatile before the end of April and more volatile from May to June, with a possibility of breaking previous lows [29]. - Since April, external tariff shocks have affected domestic manufacturing and emerging industries. In the future, attention should be paid to the recovery of external demand, the development of emerging markets, and the implementation of domestic stimulus policies [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In March 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly year - on - year growth of 5.40%, the same as the previous period and slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI was 50.50%, up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.80%, also up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year [1]. - The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.20%, and the Caixin service industry business activity index was 51.90%, both showing an upward trend from the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in March 2025 were 11.50%, 1.60%, and 7.00% respectively, with M0 and M1 increasing compared to the previous period, while M2 remained the same [1]. - The CPI in March 2025 had a year - on - year decline of 0.10%, narrowing from the previous period; the PPI had a year - on - year decline of 2.50%, slightly deeper than the previous period [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) and total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.20% and 4.60% respectively, showing a slight upward trend compared to the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of export and import values in March 2025 were 12.40% and - 4.30% respectively, with exports rebounding strongly from the previous period and imports declining [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, including supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [2][3][17]. - On April 28, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 24 had negative basis. Yarn, Zhengzhou cotton, and pulp had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Sichuan Yajiang has proven lithium ore resources of 2.2 billion tons, ranking first in the world in terms of proven pegmatite - type lithium ore reserves [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China increased its gold reserves by 12.75 tons, with a total of 2292.33 tons by the end of March. Domestic raw - material gold production increased by 1.49% year - on - year, while consumption decreased by 5.96%. The trading volume and turnover of the domestic gold market increased significantly [6]. - The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus of 28.9 tons in 2025 and 20.9 tons in 2026 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Indian government is working to ensure a fair competition environment to prevent the impact of cheap imports on the steel market, and the country's steel ministry plans to increase coking coal imports [8][9]. - The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement this week [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Sinopec's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter of 2025 was RMB 13.975 billion, and the net cash flow from operating activities increased by RMB 21.9 billion year - on - year [12]. - The National Energy Administration issued measures to promote the development of the private economy in the energy sector, including exploring financing channels and supporting private enterprises in the energy field [12]. - In March 2025, there were 4455 new on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaic) in China, mainly photovoltaic projects [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia exported 923,893 tons of palm oil from April 1 to 25 [14]. - Japan may increase imports of US - produced corn as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On April 28, the central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 103 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, with specific measures in multiple aspects [17]. - The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates in a timely manner, and is researching new policy tools [17]. - In March 2025, local governments in China issued a total of 978.8 billion yuan in bonds, including 174.8 billion yuan in general bonds and 804 billion yuan in special bonds [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - Treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined. The inter - bank market funds were generally stable [23]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.54%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.86% [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2995, down 163 points from the previous trading day. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 23 points [27]. - The US dollar index fell 0.65%, and non - US currencies generally rose [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the bond market and REITs, including yield trends, investment strategies, and project fundamentals [28][29]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On April 29, 217 bonds were listed, 88 bonds were issued, 132 bonds were settled, and 302 bonds repaid principal and interest [30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - share major indices adjusted, with consumption and real - estate sectors performing poorly and bank stocks strengthening. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.65% [31][32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.04%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.12% [32]. - The Taiwan Weighted Index rose 0.81% [33]. - As of April 28, 4706 A - share listed companies disclosed their first - quarter reports, with about 45.07% achieving year - on - year profit growth [33]. - Since April, 236 A - share companies have been surveyed by foreign institutions, mainly in sectors such as overseas expansion, consumer electronics, and pet economy [33]. - Multiple fund companies received notices of index license fee reduction, with the fee generally discounted by 20% [34][35].