行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月1日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.400 | 120.450 | 120.740 | 120.700 | 0.340 | 0.28 | 75 ...

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行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 1 日 每日报告 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | | 表1：国债期货6月30日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.940 | 120.760 | 120.420 | 120.400 | -0.520 | -0.43 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The June PMI indicates a simultaneous expansion in supply and demand, along with a rebound in price indices, suggesting a positive marginal trend in the economy, supported by better-than-expected stock market performance [1][4]. Economic Indicators - In June, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same increase compared to the same period last year, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, although still below the critical line [2]. - The production index rose from 50.7 in May to 51 in June, reflecting strong manufacturing production intentions and accelerated production activities [3]. - The new orders index returned to the critical point, signaling a recovery in market demand, particularly towards the end of Q2, which is expected to positively impact growth in Q3 [3]. Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index both increased in June, indicating an improvement in manufacturing price levels, although a full recovery to expansion levels will take time [3]. Policy Outlook - As the market looks towards Q3, there is an increasing focus on incremental and reserve policies, particularly in fiscal policy, which is expected to maintain the issuance and utilization of long-term special government bonds and local government bonds to ensure adequate social financing [4]. - Fiscal spending is anticipated to expand earlier to avoid concentration in Q4, which would enhance the "multiplier effect" [4]. - The monetary policy is expected to continue its positive orientation, with potential room for lowering the reserve requirement ratio and considering the timely restart of government bond trading [4].

文｜经济学家、新质未来研究院院长 张奥平 6月30日，国家统计局发布了2025年6月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数、综合PMI产出指 数。其中，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间。非制造 业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.3个百分 点，均高于临界点。 6月PMI录得数据为49.7%，虽较上月有所上升，但已连续3个月处于收缩区间，显示经济回升向好基础 尚不稳固。 截至2025年5月底，民营企业数量已突破5800万户，其中中小企业占比超过95%。因民营企业创造了 80%以上的城镇就业，中小企业经营压力大则会直接影响就业。6月从业人员指数为47.9%，比上月下降 0.2个百分点，低于临界点。 因当前经济主要矛盾仍为需求不足，且外需或将大幅放缓，笔者建议，各地区各部门应将扩大内需作为 下阶段首要工作任务。 财政政策方面，加快今年已安排的4.4万亿元地方政府专项债券、1.3万亿元超长期特别国债发行使用， 加力扩围落实"两重"建设与"两新"工作，为后续增量财政政策加码留出空间。货币政策方面，加快落实 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.542 | 102.668 | 106.265 | 106.335 | 109.045 | 109.065 | 120.89 | 120.76 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.510 | 102.642 | 106.170 | 106.240 | 108.950 | 108.980 | 120.72 | 120.56 | | | 涨跌 | 0.032 | 0.026 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.085 | 0.170 | 0.200 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows mixed signals with some indicators stable and others facing challenges. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly in May, while PPI continued to decline, and industrial enterprise profits were under pressure. Fiscal policy is expected to play a more active role in the second half of the year, and the bond market is generally optimistic in July. The stock market presents structural opportunities, especially in certain sectors like innovation drugs and AI - related areas [2][14][22][33] - Global trade is affected by the US "equivalent tariff" policy, which has drawn strong opposition from China. International geopolitical events also impact commodity markets, such as the situation in the Middle East affecting the oil market, and Canada's digital service tax on US tech companies causing trade frictions [3][15] - The gold market has long - term upward potential but is subject to significant short - term volatility due to Trump's unpredictable policies. The copper market has seen shortages outside the US due to import investigations, and the lithium market continues its downward trend [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from April. Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other monetary indicators showed different trends, and industrial enterprise profits in January - May decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [1] - The trade balance in May showed exports growing by 4.8% year - on - year and imports declining by 3.4% year - on - year. The CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China will release June PMI data on June 30. The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate the implementation of existing policies in the second half of the year, and incremental policies may be introduced. The US "equivalent tariff" policy has been strongly opposed by China, and domestic refined oil prices may rise on July 1 [2][3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE price index, rose 2.7% year - on - year in May, slightly exceeding market expectations. Personal consumption and income declined, and the Fed may cut interest rates twice this year, with the first cut possibly in September [4] Metals - In May, the upstream physical gold demand weakened seasonally, and the gold出库 volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 35% month - on - month. Gold prices have been oscillating at a high level recently, and there is long - term upward potential. The copper market outside the US is facing shortages, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has fallen below 60,000 yuan/ton [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Canada imposed a 50% tariff on steel imports from non - free - trade - agreement countries. The iron ore market may face negative feedback in the future due to factors such as the end of export rush and unstable domestic demand [8] Energy and Chemicals - China's first national - level continental shale oil demonstration area in Xinjiang reached a record high daily output. The Haifa refinery in Israel has partially resumed production. The ICE Brent crude oil speculators reduced their net long positions, and OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July [10] Agricultural Products - China decided to conditionally resume the import of aquatic products from some regions of Japan. Argentine exporters have declared 6.1 million metric tons of soybeans and their derivatives for external sales in June [11] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On June 27, the central bank conducted 525.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 364.7 billion yuan. This week, 2.0275 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature [13] Key News - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested strengthening policy regulation. The fiscal policy will focus on implementing existing policies and may introduce incremental policies. The Sino - US trade teams are in close communication, and China will approve eligible export applications, while the US will cancel some restrictive measures [14] - From January to May, the total profit of national industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The total revenue of state - owned enterprises was 32.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, and the total profit was 1.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [16] - The bond market is generally positive, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining. The exchange - traded bond market had some bonds rising and falling, and the convertible bond market also showed different trends. Overseas, European and US bond yields generally increased [22][24][25] Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1690 on June 30, down 6.0 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.04% in New York trading [26] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB exchange rate may maintain a low - volatility state in the short term. The current active equity products are over - allocated in stocks and under - allocated in bonds, and future products may increase the allocation of equity assets with similar bond attributes [27] - Huatai Macro points out that the impact of tariffs on industrial enterprise profits is emerging, and there is still great uncertainty in tariff policies after July 9. Guosheng Fixed Income suggests maintaining a long - term position in bonds and seizing the bull market after the end of the quarter [28][29] Today's Reminders - On June 30, 241 bonds will be listed, 38 bonds will be issued, 67 bonds will make payments, and 617 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 4. Stock Market Key News - Starting from June 30, the share transaction fee in the Hong Kong market will be adjusted from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, which is beneficial for reducing small - scale transaction costs and optimizing institutional investors' trading strategies [31] - In the first half of this year, hot topics such as innovative drugs, humanoid robots, and the Beijing Stock Exchange drove the market. The performance of funds investing in innovative drugs was outstanding, while AI - themed funds had poor performance. The Hong Kong stock market's financing was booming, and the A - share market showed an upward trend last week [32][33] - Some institutions believe that the stock market will present structural opportunities during the interim report season. AI and military industries are expected to be the focus of structural opportunities in the third quarter, and new consumption and innovative drugs may rebound after June 30 [33][34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the acceleration of fiscal policy implementation, with a focus on increasing spending intensity and expediting expenditure progress to support people's livelihoods, promote consumption, and enhance economic resilience [1][4][7] Group 2 - In 2025, the national general public budget expenditure is set to increase by 1.2 trillion yuan, with an additional local government special debt limit of 500 billion yuan and a proposed issuance of super long-term special bonds increasing by 300 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - In the first five months, the national general public budget expenditure reached 11.3 trillion yuan, growing by 4.2%, with central government expenditure increasing by 9.4% and local expenditure by 3.4% [2] - Key areas such as social security, health, and education have seen significant expenditure growth, aligning with macro counter-cyclical adjustment policies [2][4] Group 3 - The structure of fiscal spending is continuously optimized, with strong support for key livelihood areas such as education, healthcare, and employment, showing respective growth rates of 9.2%, 6.7%, and 3.9% in the first five months [4][5] - The "Two New" policies are effectively stimulating domestic demand, with significant profit growth in related industries, such as a 10.6% increase in general equipment and a 101.5% increase in smart consumer device manufacturing [5] Group 4 - Experts anticipate that fiscal policy will accelerate the implementation of existing policies while planning for new incremental policies, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [7][8] - It is expected that an additional 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan in incremental funds will be raised in the second half of the year to counter external uncertainties and support consumption and investment [8]

见闻财经日历 WSCN Economic Calendar 特朗普"大漂亮"法案计划在7月4日前通过 美国参议院准备对特朗普政府"大漂亮"税收和支出法案进行关键性投票，力争在"7月4日"前通过。 华尔街见闻提及，6月29日周日，美国参议院经过激烈拉锯，以51票赞成、49票反对的结果，通过了"大漂亮法案"的更新版本。 要想在最终表决中顺利过关，接下来参议院共和党人还得继续"微调"法案，才能说服党内的全部50名需要支持的议员。 w 华尔街见间 | 时间 地区 | | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6月30日 周一 | | | | | | 数据 | 国内 | 09:30 中国 6月官方制造业PMI | | 49.5 | | 事件 | 海外 | 欧洲央行在辛特拉举行中央银行论坛，至7月2日 | | | | 7月1日 周二 | | | | | | 数据 | 国内 | 09:45 中国 6月财新制造业PMI | | 48.3 | | 海外 | | 22:00 美国 6月ISM制造业指数 | 48.8 | 48.5 | | 事件 | 海外 | 03:00 ...

美联储的独立性并非写在宪法中，而是源于国会赋予的权力以及其独特的结构：理事会成员任期长达14 年，主席和副主席任期4年，且不能因政策分歧而被总统随意罢免。这种设计旨在让美联储能够超越短 期政治周期，专注于长期经济健康。 然而，总统拥有提名美联储理事和主席的权力，这是总统影响美联储的最重要、最直接的途径。通过选 择具有特定经济哲学或倾向的候选人，总统可以在一定程度上塑造美联储未来的政策方向。这种任命权 是总统在这场博弈中的首要筹码。 二、 历史上的经典案例：从隐秘施压到公开对抗 历史长河中，美联储与总统的博弈留下了许多著名的注脚： 二战后的"财政部-美联储协议"（1951年）： 这是美联储争取独立性的一个关键时刻。二战期 间，美联储为了帮助政府融资，承诺将国债利率维持在低位。战后，通货膨胀压力显现，美联储 希望提高利率，但财政部和杜鲁门总统反对，担心增加政府债务成本。经过激烈的幕后谈判和国 会介入，双方达成协议，美联储摆脱了为政府债务融资而牺牲物价稳定的束缚，重新获得了货币 政策的自主权。这标志着美联储独立性迈出了重要一步。 约翰逊总统与小威廉·麦克切斯尼·马丁主席（1960年代）： 约翰逊总统希望通过扩张性财 ...