此前七次出现红色信号后，标普500指数在未来12个月平均下跌5.6%。当前红色周期是该模型自2022年2月以来首次发出看跌信号——当时市场对美联储加 息路径的担忧令美股陷入熊市。 很难准确判断这对标普500指数意味着什么。在经历了21个月的中性"黄色"区间后，当前红色周期对模型大多数成分指标而言仍处于初期阶段。虽然这可能 预示着更多下跌，但由于美国贸易政策难以预测，投资者仍在争论最严重的抛售是否已经结束。 "要么全球贸易战很快结束，一切自行化解;要么股市抛售加剧，投资者在情况恶化到出现买入机会前就认赔离场，"股票策略师沃尔夫在电话采访中表 示，"但目前尚未到达那个临界点。" 智通财经APP注意到，一项股市指标已进入历史数据显示与标普500指数最差回报前景相关的阶段。此前贸易紧张局势笼罩金融市场，削弱了美国企业的盈 利增长前景。 彭博行业研究的股票市场周期模型将市场划分为三个阶段——加速增长(绿色)、温和增长(黄色)和下跌(红色)。根据该机构分析师吉娜·马丁·亚当斯和吉莉安· 沃尔夫汇编的数据，该模型在今年3月和4月跌入了警示性的红色区域。 其他模型成分仅显现初步恶化迹象。例如，远期盈利预测的同比增速虽仍显著高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has begun imposing tariffs on over 80 Chinese products, responding to pressure from the United States amid ongoing trade tensions initiated by President Trump [1][3]. Group 1: EU Actions - The EU has previously imposed tariffs on certain Chinese goods since January, citing "anti-dumping" measures, and the recent tariffs on mobile elevating work platforms add to this list [3]. - The EU claims that Chinese products benefit from unfair subsidies and are sold below normal prices, justifying the tariffs [3]. Group 2: Impact on China - The tariffs are expected to significantly reduce the competitiveness of Chinese products in the EU market, leading to a decrease in orders for affected companies [3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce has criticized the EU's actions as "selective enforcement," arguing that it creates trade barriers and violates World Trade Organization (WTO) rules [3]. Group 3: China's Response - China has indicated that it understands some countries may negotiate under pressure from the US, but any actions that harm Chinese interests will lead to reciprocal measures [5]. - A recent bilingual video released by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized China's refusal to submit to US "bullying" tactics, asserting the need for a firm stance to protect national interests [5][7]. - China does not oppose countries aligning with the US, provided it does not come at the expense of Chinese interests, warning of potential retaliation if such boundaries are crossed [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by American farmers in finding alternative markets for products like chicken feet and fish heads, which were previously exported to China but are now affected by high tariffs due to trade tensions [1][2][12]. Group 1: Impact on Chicken Feet Exports - American farmers are struggling to adapt to new tariffs imposed by China, which has significantly reduced the demand for chicken feet, a product that is popular in China but not in the U.S. [1][2] - In 2022, the export volume of chicken feet to China reached 479,700 tons, making it the largest export market for this product [1]. - The president of the U.S. Poultry & Egg Export Council stated that the latest tariffs could drive chicken feet exports "close to zero" [1]. Group 2: Broader Implications for U.S. Agriculture - The imposition of a 125% retaliatory tariff by China on U.S. imports has led to a significant loss of market for American chicken feet, forcing farmers to consider freezing the product or repurposing it for animal feed [2]. - The U.S. Meat Export Federation reported that the actual tariff rate on U.S. pork products has risen to 172%, severely impacting exports of pork by-products to China, which accounted for over half of U.S. exports [6]. - The economic loss for U.S. farmers due to the trade dispute is estimated to be around $1 billion annually, with each pig potentially losing $8 to $10 in value [6]. Group 3: Fish Head Exports and Alternative Markets - The Two Rivers Fisheries Company, a major fish exporter in Kentucky, reported a 20% expected revenue drop due to canceled orders for fish heads after the tariffs were imposed [8]. - The company processed 1.6 million kilograms of Asian carp in 2024, with China being the sole export market for fish heads [8]. - The owner of the company is now considering targeting the Asian community in the U.S. or exploring markets in South Korea and Vietnam as alternatives [8][9]. Group 4: Overall Agricultural Crisis - The trade tensions have led to widespread cancellations of agricultural orders across various sectors, with the American Agricultural Transportation Coalition describing the situation as a "full-blown crisis" [11]. - The rising costs of fertilizers, pest control chemicals, and agricultural machinery due to tariffs are further exacerbating the challenges faced by American farmers [11].

日本、韩国与美国的关税谈判，或陷入拉锯战！ 卢特尼克在接受彭博电视台采访时表示："你必须花大量时间与日本、韩国打交道。这些交易不会很快达成。"卢特 尼克补充道，印度为达成协议也"非常努力"，有可能成为下一个达成协议的国家之一。但他警告称，这是一项艰巨 的工作。 据最新消息，美国商务部长卢特尼克警告称，美国跟日本、韩国的关税谈判要花大量时间，协议不会很快达成。 在卢特尼克发表上述言论之际，美国与英国在周四达成了一份贸易协议。然而，协议的诸多细节尚待敲定，美方此 前加征的10%所谓"对等关税"也未取消。《纽约时报》称，美英达成的这项协议看起来更像是一个框架协议，而非完 整的贸易协议。 Ebury市场策略主管Matthew Ryan指出，到目前为止，英国金融市场几乎没有表现出任何欣喜若狂的迹象，这足以 说明投资者是如何看待这一协议的。这远非一个全面的贸易协定，可能需要几个月甚至几年的时间才能最终敲定。 美国商务部长发出警告 北京时间5月9日消息，卢特尼克表示，与韩国和日本的贸易协议可能比英美周四达成的框架协议需要更长的时间才 能完成。 卢特尼克称，"说到印度，打个比方在协议下可能需要修改或调整7000项关税，这需要 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wealthy families in Asia are significantly reducing their exposure to U.S. assets due to uncertainties stemming from President Trump's tariffs, indicating a potential long-term shift in investment strategies [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - A family office managing assets for Chinese billionaires has completely divested from U.S. assets, reallocating profits back to Asia [1] - A senior executive from one of Europe's largest private banks noted that the scale of recent sell-offs by wealthy clients and institutions is unprecedented in the past 30 years, suggesting a possible long-term trend [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation - An executive from an Asian bank has reduced 60% of U.S. assets from their investment portfolio, citing cash and gold as safer holdings [1]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the trade war has shifted the focus from external demand to internal demand, making the latter the cornerstone for winning the trade war, emphasizing the need for certainty in internal demand [3][5] - The issue of insufficient internal demand is linked to the high tax burden on private enterprises, which leads to low profitability and potential market exit, thereby reducing the tax base and overall income [4][9] - The comparison with Western developed countries highlights that despite high tax systems, they do not face demand shortages due to a greater allocation of tax revenue towards social welfare rather than administrative costs, leading to a more balanced distribution of resources [7][9] Group 2 - The high administrative costs in the domestic economy are identified as a direct cause of insufficient demand, indicating that tax revenue must be effectively redistributed to stimulate consumption [9] - The article suggests that the current economic model is unsustainable, as low corporate profits lead to cost-cutting measures that can spiral into a decline in the middle-income group, creating a negative feedback loop [4][9]

2025 年贸易行业分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行情况 （一）进出口贸易运行情况 2024 年，中国进出口贸易总额稳步增长，累计出口同比上升明显，海外需求韧 性较强；受国内需求较弱叠加全球大宗商品价格下跌影响，累计进口同比增速下滑。 2025 年一季度，在外部困难挑战增多的情况下，中国外贸进出口实现平稳开局，美 国加征高额关税对我国外贸出口的制约预计二季度会逐步显现。 根据海关总署数据，2024 年中国进出口商品金额总值 61622.89 亿美元，同比上 升 3.8%。其中，累计出口金额 35772.22 亿美元，同比上升 5.9%，自 5 月以后累计出 口同比整体呈明显上升趋势，主要受半导体行业周期性回暖及消费电子、汽车、船舶 等产品竞争力提升等因素综合影响；累计进口金额 25850.67 亿美元，同比上升 1.1%， 自 8 月以来累计进口同比缓慢下滑，主要系国内需求端较弱叠加全球大宗商品价格下 跌所致；2024 年全年贸易顺差 9921.55 亿美元，较 2023 年增加 1700.53 亿美元，贸 易顺差有明显增长。 2025 年一季度，在 ...

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations despite a high base from the previous year[2] - The trade war initiated in April 2025 has increased economic uncertainty, leading to downward revisions in GDP growth forecasts by international institutions[3] Monetary Policy Response - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a comprehensive financial policy package, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity[4] - The PBOC also lowered the benchmark interest rate for 7-day reverse repos from 1.5% to 1.4%, potentially reducing the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[10] Sector-Specific Measures - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies has been reduced from 5% to 0%, aimed at stimulating auto consumption and reducing manufacturing costs[10] - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been cut by 0.25 percentage points, with the first home rate now at 2.6%[10] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - In March 2025, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating improved consumer sentiment[17] - The consumer spending propensity reached 63.1% in Q1 2025, the highest for the first quarter since 2020, reflecting a positive trend in consumer confidence[17] Trade War Impact - The trade war could potentially reduce China's GDP growth by approximately 2 percentage points if high tariffs lead to a complete halt in trade with the U.S.[18] - However, the actual impact is expected to be less severe, with the IMF estimating a drag of only 0.6% on GDP growth due to the ability to reroute exports to non-U.S. markets[18] Future Outlook - The PBOC is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with significant room for further easing if economic conditions worsen due to the trade war[12] - The combination of monetary and fiscal policies is anticipated to support domestic demand, countering external uncertainties[16]

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. government's trade war and tariff policies are seen as detrimental to global economic development and are unlikely to achieve the intended effects, with China demonstrating greater economic resilience to external shocks [1][2][3] Group 1: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. government's imposition of tariffs is viewed as a manifestation of its hegemonic ambitions, aiming to restructure economic relations globally [1] - Experts argue that unpredictable tariff policies hinder not only global trade but also the U.S. economy itself, with potential negative impacts expected to manifest by the end of 2025 if the current situation persists [2] - The high tariffs are perceived as negotiation tools rather than sustainable measures, with expectations of partial reductions and exemptions in the future [2] Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - China's economy is characterized by strong resilience, capable of effectively responding to the challenges posed by the U.S. trade war [3] - The trade war has prompted China to diversify its trade partners and enhance economic interactions with countries outside the U.S., potentially strengthening its position in the Russian market [3] - Despite short-term losses due to the trade war, China's economic influence is expected to grow, positioning it as a significant player in a multipolar world [3]

智通财经APP获悉，纽约联邦储备银行周四发布的最新消费者预期调查显示，随着美国总统特朗普在4 月发动全球范围的贸易战，美国民众对当前及未来财务状况的看法明显恶化，收入增长预期下滑，就业 前景也转向悲观。 通胀预期的变动对美联储的决策至关重要。多数官员认为，公众对未来价格走势的预期会直接影响当前 的通胀水平。虽然包括密歇根大学在内的其他机构调查显示通胀预期上升明显，但纽约联储的数据并未 显示出类似的急剧攀升。 近几周，多位美联储官员接连发声，强调当前维稳通胀预期至关重要，以应对特朗普政策带来的不确定 性和潜在风险。面对贸易战和关税冲击，美国经济虽未陷入衰退，但民众情绪的转弱已为政策制定者敲 响警钟。 报告还指出，公众对未来房租、汽油和大学学费的价格上涨预期增强，对房价的年增长预期从3%升至 3.3%，显示出在多个领域通胀压力仍未消退。 这份调查结果发布之际，正值美联储在本周三决定维持短期利率目标不变。尽管美联储认为当前经 济"总体健康"，但特朗普政府推行的新一轮贸易关税政策对经济前景造成了冲击。许多经济学家预期， 关税政策将推动通胀和失业率上升，同时抑制原本可能更强劲的经济增长。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在政策 ...