基本面： -----------当日金银报价------------------ 现货黄金报3398附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报38.85美元/盎司； -----------日内金融市场热点----------------- 20:30 美国 --- 美联储主席鲍威尔在一场监管会议上致欢迎辞。 美元指数：图表显示目前美指为震荡反弹行情。关注压力100.00位置。 周二（7月22日）银价早盘压力位震荡，白银突破区间创近期高点，市场回落后多单布局方案。基本面最新消息数据显示，世界主要黄金消费国上个月进口 了63公吨黄金，为1月份以来最低。现货白银上涨2.1%，报每盎司38.99美元；铂金上涨1.4%，报1440.75美元；钯金上涨2.1%，报1266.04美元。7月21日，国 际评级机构惠誉称，政策风险给美国信用前景蒙上阴影。惠誉在年中更新中，将美国2025年25%行业的前景展望下调至"恶化"，原因是不确定性增加、经济 增长放缓以及预期利率将长期维持在高位。 惠誉表示，近期通过的税收和支出法案凸显了美国财政前景面临的长期挑战，并将给医疗保健相关行业带来压 力。税收法案和先前减税措施的延长相结合，很可能使美政府总赤 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】周一美盘时段，现货黄金价格强势突破3400美元/盎司关口，创6月17日以来新高，日内涨幅近1.5%。贸易谈判不确定性 叠加降息预期升温，推动资金涌入避险资产，其他贵金属同步走强：白银涨1.8%、铂金升2.2%、钯金飙升3.5%。 美元指数跌近0.8%，10年期美债收益率跌至一周低点，降低持有黄金的机会成本。High Ridge Futures金属主管David Meger指出："关税大限临近 和降息预期升温构成双重利好，黄金成为不确定性中的'安全锚'。" SPI Asset Management合伙人Stephen Innes表示，欧盟调整对俄石油出口价格上限引发能源供应担忧，日本首相石破茂执政不稳可能干扰美日贸易 谈判，进一步推高市场避险情绪。他强调，贸易战、政治动荡与通胀隐忧交织，黄金作为防御性资产的需求将持续强劲。（陈十一） 美国政府设定8月1日为贸易协议最后期限，否则将加征更多关税。欧盟外交人士透露，与美谈判前景黯淡，欧盟正酝酿反制措施，包括动用"反胁 迫工具"限制美企进入金融服务市场及欧盟招标。德国政府暗示支持此举，加剧市场对贸易冲突升级的担忧。 芝商所数据显示，交易员预计美联 ...

报道称，这已经触及欧盟的承受底线，此前一直主张协商的德国立场也转向鹰派。欧盟将于本周开启内 部会谈，商议对美国开启"报复性关税"。 欧盟被触及底线，将商议对美国开启"报复性关税" 当地时间7月20日，《华尔街日报》援引美国官员的话称，特朗普将要求欧盟作出进一步让步以达成协 议，或对大多数欧洲商品征收大于或等于15%的基线关税。 最新转变 所谓基线关税，是指在特定贸易安排（如自由贸易协定、区域贸易协定等）中作为起始点或参照点的关 税水平。 基线关税的消息无疑将进一步刺激到欧盟。此前，欧盟与美国谈判的目标是争取多数商品维持10%的关 税率，这对大多数欧盟国家来说已是艰难让步。 长期以来，法国等欧盟国家一直敦促欧盟对美国采取更强硬的立场，而德国则鼓励欧盟寻求与特朗普达 成协议。而最新事态甚至促使德国转变立场，一位了解情况的官员透露，这一转变"促使柏林打开了报 复之门"。 德国是欧洲最大的经济体和最大的出口国。德国方面表示，将启用带有法律性质的反胁迫工具——反胁 迫文书（ACI）对抗贸易战，该文书赋予欧盟官员对美国科技公司征收新关税、限制美国在欧洲投资、 限制美国公司竞标公共合同等权力。德国此前从未启用过该工具。 欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - A power struggle is unfolding between Wall Street and the White House regarding interest rates, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell facing pressure from hawkish sentiments and potential leadership changes [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish speech emphasized the need to maintain a 4.25% interest rate range for at least 6 to 12 months, dampening hopes for rate cuts [3][4]. - Market reactions to Logan's speech were immediate, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 65% to 58%, and the likelihood of two cuts this year plummeting from 93% to 76% [3]. - The latest June meeting minutes revealed a split among Fed officials, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts, while others expressed concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, while core CPI increased by 2.9%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [4]. - Concerns about tariffs affecting consumer prices were highlighted, with 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms planning to pass on tariff costs to consumers [4]. - The trade war's impact was underscored by Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on Mexico, prompting retaliatory measures and raising fears of broader economic repercussions [4]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Political Dynamics - Trump's contemplation of firing Powell led to significant market volatility, with stock prices dropping and bond yields rising, only for his stance to reverse shortly after [5]. - Logan's use of the term "trauma" to describe current risks indicates the precarious balance the Fed must maintain between rising inflation and the need for potential rate cuts [7]. - The ongoing political dynamics and potential leadership changes at the Fed create uncertainty in the financial markets, as the next chair will face tough decisions amid conflicting pressures [7].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected shift in Trump's stance regarding high tariffs on China, acknowledging them as excessive and proposing significant reductions contingent on China's agreement to U.S. conditions, marks a pivotal moment in U.S.-China trade relations [1][5][9]. Economic Context - The U.S. federal debt is projected to exceed $36 trillion by 2025, with public debt accounting for approximately $29 trillion. The government faces an interest repayment of $1 trillion this year against an expected revenue of $5 trillion, leading to a tense fiscal situation [3]. - The U.S. trade deficit is expected to surpass $1.2 trillion by 2024, exacerbated by high tariffs that have increased import costs for consumers and businesses, resulting in a 1.4% reduction in market income [11][18]. Trade Relations and Tariff Adjustments - The tariff conflict escalated from an initial 10% tariff on China to as high as 145%, with retaliatory measures from both sides. A temporary agreement was reached in May, reducing U.S. tariffs to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10% [7][13]. - Despite the agreement, Trump retains a portion of the original high tariffs and emphasizes the need for China to increase purchases of U.S. goods and address trade imbalances [11][18]. International Relations and Strategic Moves - Japan's refusal to halt the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds adds pressure on the U.S. financial situation, prompting Trump to seek a resolution with China [5][12]. - The U.S. military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, involving allies like Japan and Australia, are seen as a strategy to maintain pressure on China while negotiating trade terms [9][14]. Future Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are complicated by the U.S.'s significant debt burden and the need for economic stability. China's economic resilience and commitment to mutual benefit in trade negotiations position it favorably in the ongoing discussions [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

欧盟最后一退，特朗普加码15%关税！德高官怒吼：要战便战 当欧盟贸易专员谢夫乔维奇结束六赴华盛顿的谈判，带回美国接受10%基准关税的乐观预期时，布鲁塞 尔的官员们以为终于躲过了贸易战的子弹。然而仅仅一周后，白宫传来的新条件如一盆冷水：特朗普要 求欧盟接受15%甚至更高的基准关税，否则8月1日起全面启动30%关税。 "所有选项都摆在桌面上。"一位德国官员面对《华尔街日报》的镜头语气冰冷，"如果他们想要战争， 他们会得偿所愿。" 步步紧逼：10%的妥协如何喂大了特朗普的胃口 四个月来，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的"谈判策略"已成固定剧本：先强硬表态，再火速让步。7月，她 刚宣称"必将采取一切必要反制"，却在24小时内突然推迟了价值210亿欧元的对美报复性关税，姿态柔 软得令人咋舌。 欧盟的妥协清单曾显得诚意十足： - 承诺采购数百亿美元美国能源与半导体 - 在汽车关税上主动提出"归零方案"（只要美国降至20%，欧盟就取消美国汽车10%关税） - 德国车企甚至设计出复杂的"出口抵进口"机制换取豁免 汽车产业是德国的生死线：2023年欧盟对美汽车出口额高达580亿美元，支撑着1400万个就业岗位。大 众、宝马等巨头已发出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The report assesses the copper market as having a neutral to slightly bullish bias based on various factors. The overall expectation is that copper prices will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals show that smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79620 with a basis of - 80, indicating a discount to the futures price, considered neutral [3]. - Inventory data on July 21 shows a decrease of 100 tons to 122075 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3094 tons to 84556 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is trending upwards, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, also bullish [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The report mentions that domestic policy easing is a potential positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative factor [4]. Spot - The report provides information on spot prices including the location, middle price, and price changes, as well as inventory details such as type, total quantity, and quantity changes [7]. 期现价差 - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [8]. Exchange Inventory - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [12]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [18]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - The report presents the China annual supply - demand balance sheet for copper from 2018 to 2024, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide explicit industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as "anti - involution", supply - demand dynamics, and external trade risks. Different commodities show various trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [12][39][47]. - Some commodities are expected to follow the overall strength of the commodity market driven by "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization, while others are restricted by their own supply - demand fundamentals [12][60]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Price rose on the 21st. A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China plans to shut down for maintenance tomorrow. It is expected to be in a state of tight supply - demand. Suggested to go long on PX unilaterally and roll - over long on the spread. Keep an eye on the long PX and short EB/EG positions [6][12]. - **PTA**: In a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, it is a unilateral sideways market. The processing fee is hard to improve. The supply is loose, and it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern [12]. - **MEG**: The spread is weak, and it unilaterally follows the overall strength of the commodity market. The supply is relatively loose, and the upward space of the unilateral price is limited due to weak polyester demand [13][14]. Rubber - The price is oscillating strongly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Influenced by macro - positives, cost, and产区 weather, the bullish sentiment is strong [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policies, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals. In the medium - term, there is pressure on the fundamentals [19][21]. Asphalt - It is oscillating repeatedly. The production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly [22][37]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. Although the inventory was low before, it is gradually moving towards inventory build - up [38][39]. PP - The spot price rose slightly, and the trading was light. The futures price increase boosted the market sentiment, and the cost support strengthened, but the downstream procurement was cautious [43][44]. Caustic Soda - It is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increasing power, but strong cost support due to weak liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for the peak season [46][47]. Pulp - It is oscillating strongly. The market shows a differentiation of futures premium and spot price stagnation. The supply pressure is still there, and the demand support is limited [50][52]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has risen slightly recently, and the production and sales in most regions are acceptable [54][55]. Methanol - It is running strongly. The spot price index increased. It is expected to follow the strength of the commodity market in the short - term, with a neutral short - term fundamental [57][60]. Urea - It is running strongly in the short - term. The inventory decreased this week. It may follow the strength of the commodity market. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in late July, but there is pressure from the end of domestic agricultural demand [62][64]. Styrene - The "anti - involution" sentiment is strong, and it is strong in the short - term. It is currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, mainly for short - allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated inventory build - up stage [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price oscillated upwards, and some enterprises controlled orders. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly and the low price may rise [67]. LPG - It is oscillating weakly in the short - term. The 8 - month and 9 - month Saudi CP expectations decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [71][78]. PVC - It is strong in the short - term but still has pressure above. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term, and the export sustainability needs to be observed [81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session weakened slightly, and it is mainly in a short - term sideways trend. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market remained weak [86]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is recommended to short at high prices for the October contract and hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [88].

Group 1 - Brazil's Ministry of Finance announced the establishment of a tax consulting office in China, highlighting the importance of its relationship with China amid increasing trade tensions with the United States [1][3] - The tax consulting office aims to combat tax and customs violations through the exchange of key information and to provide technical guidance on Brazilian laws to foreign investors and overseas citizens, enhancing legal certainty and the business environment [3] - Brazil's trade with China has been growing increasingly complex, necessitating deeper cooperation on tax and customs issues [3] Group 2 - China has been Brazil's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, with exports to China accounting for approximately 28% of Brazil's total exports in 2024 [4] - In the first quarter of 2025, Brazil's total import and export trade reached $144.6 billion, with bilateral trade between Brazil and China amounting to $38.8 billion, and Brazilian imports from China surged by 35% [4]