Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a continuous price adjustment, leading some first-time buyers to enter the market. As of September 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities is 13,381 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.74% and a year-on-year decline of 7.38%. The prices have been falling for 41 consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [3][4][10]. Price Trends - The average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities has been on a downward trend, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 7.38% as of September 2025. The cumulative decline for the first three quarters is 5.79% [3][10]. - The second-hand housing market is under pressure due to high listing volumes, with a total of approximately 2.5842 million listings across 100 cities, indicating a growing trend [10]. Transaction Volume - In September 2025, 23 cities among key national cities saw a year-on-year increase in transaction volume. Notably, Huizhou experienced a 50.6% increase in transaction volume, with 4,594 units sold, while Xuzhou saw a 43.3% increase with 1,242 units sold [4][8]. - The overall transaction volume in Huizhou for the first half of the year was 23,007 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.80% [5]. Market Characteristics - The second-hand housing market is characterized by three significant trends: overall volume increase, structural differentiation, and policy-driven changes. The market is complex, primarily due to high listing volumes [10]. - The average listing duration for second-hand homes reached 95.12 days in September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.65%, indicating a slowdown in market circulation speed [10]. Policy Impact - Various local governments have introduced measures such as optimizing housing provident funds, offering purchase subsidies, and lowering mortgage rates to support market demand and maintain transaction volumes [9][10].

Core Insights - The second-hand housing prices continue to adjust, leading some first-time homebuyers to choose to enter the market [1] - In September 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,381 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decline of 0.74% and a year-on-year decline of 7.38% [1] - The transaction volume in September showed that 23 cities among key national cities experienced year-on-year increases [2] Price Trends - The cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices across 100 cities for the first three quarters was 5.79% [1] - The average listing duration for second-hand homes reached 95.12 days in September 2025, an increase of 6.65% year-on-year [5] - The overall market is under pressure from high listing volumes, with a total of approximately 2.5842 million second-hand homes listed [5] Transaction Volume Insights - In September, Huizhou and Xuzhou led the transaction increases, with Huizhou seeing a 50.6% year-on-year increase in transaction volume [3][4] - The transaction volume in Huizhou was 4,594 units, while Xuzhou recorded 1,242 units, reflecting significant growth in these smaller cities [3][4] - The trend indicates a shift towards lower-priced housing, with low total price transactions increasing from 25% to 36% [2] Market Characteristics - The second-hand housing market is characterized by three main features: total volume increase, structural differentiation, and policy-driven dynamics [5] - Various local governments have introduced measures such as optimizing housing provident funds, offering purchase subsidies, and lowering mortgage rates to support transaction volumes [5] - The market is experiencing a complex operational state, with a focus on "price for volume" strategies as a prevailing trend [5]

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed a relative stability, with a narrowing decline in housing prices year-on-year, indicating the gradual impact of previous policies [1][3][5] New Housing Market - In September, new housing prices in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively [2][3] - Year-on-year, new housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points, with Shanghai increasing by 5.6% [3][4] - The number of cities with rising new housing prices increased from 5 to 8, signaling a stabilization in the market [3] Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market continues to face significant downward pressure, with first-tier cities seeing a month-on-month decline of 1.0% in September [4] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities decreased by 3.2%, a narrowing of 0.3 percentage points [4] - The average listing time for second-hand homes in smaller cities has increased to 99 days, indicating greater difficulty in inventory turnover [4] Market Outlook - Industry experts predict that continued policy easing will support transaction volumes in core cities, while smaller cities may need to adopt price reductions to stimulate sales [5] - The anticipated low base effect from last year's fourth quarter, combined with ongoing policy effects, may lead to further narrowing of year-on-year price declines in the last quarter of the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - In September, new home sales increased month-on-month, while the inventory of commercial housing has decreased for seven consecutive months, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1][5]. Price Trends - In September, the sales prices of new residential properties in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.4% respectively month-on-month, with first-tier cities experiencing the smallest decline [2] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw a price drop of 0.7%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, with Shanghai showing a 5.6% increase [2][3]. Sales Performance - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, while sales revenue fell by 7.9% [1][4]. - In September alone, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 85.31 million square meters, and sales revenue was 80.25 billion yuan, representing month-on-month increases of 48.52% and 47.28% respectively [4][5]. Inventory Levels - By the end of September, the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 75.928 million square meters, a decrease of 2.41 million square meters from August, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline [5]. - The reduction in inventory is attributed to increased promotional efforts and favorable policies, leading to a relatively high average absorption rate of around 40% despite an 80% increase in supply [5]. Construction Activity - From January to September, the new construction area was 45.399 million square meters, down 18.9%, but the decline has narrowed compared to earlier months [6]. - The relaxation of pre-sale standards by some developers has improved the enthusiasm for new construction, providing better support for cash flow [6]. Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see an increase in new supply from quality land acquisitions by leading developers, which may support new home sales in core cities [6]. - The real estate market is anticipated to continue its recovery, but the "price-for-volume" strategy is likely to persist in the short term [6].

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed relative stability, with steady transaction volumes in the secondary market and ongoing structural differentiation in the new housing market [1] - Positive signals emerged as the year-on-year decline in housing prices narrowed, indicating that the effects of previous policies are gradually permeating the market, alleviating long-term downward pressure [1] Market Performance - In September, 64.1% of online house-hunting users on the Anjuke platform were looking for second-hand homes, marking a 1.6 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching the highest level since April [1] - The average listing duration for second-hand homes in 100 cities increased to 95 days, with third and fourth-tier cities experiencing an even longer duration of 99 days, indicating greater difficulty in inventory digestion in smaller cities [1] New Housing Market - The new housing market performed relatively well, with new home prices in Beijing and Shanghai increasing by 0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, and Shanghai achieving a significant year-on-year growth of 5.6% [1] - Key support for this growth came from the introduction of quality improvement housing in core areas and the relaxation of purchase restrictions in peripheral areas [1] Policy Impact - The relaxation of policies in August and September directly stimulated demand, supporting both new home prices and transaction volumes in the secondary market [1] - Expectations for stable housing prices and continued policy easing are anticipated to bolster transaction volumes in core cities in the fourth quarter, while non-core areas and many smaller cities will still need to rely on "price for volume" strategies to reduce inventory [2]

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities showed a mixed performance in September, with new residential prices declining month-on-month but the year-on-year decline narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - In September, new residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.6% and 1.0% [1] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.4% in new residential prices, while third-tier cities also saw a similar decline of 0.4% [1] - The second-hand residential market in first-tier cities saw a month-on-month price drop of 1.0%, consistent with the previous month, with declines in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "Golden September" period showed relative stability in the real estate market, with steady transaction volumes in the second-hand market and ongoing structural differentiation in new housing [1][2] - Policy relaxations in August and September, such as the easing of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen and adjustments in mortgage rates in Shanghai, have stimulated demand and supported both new and second-hand housing prices [2] - The online search for second-hand homes reached a peak of 64.1% in September, indicating increased interest, while the average listing duration for second-hand homes rose to 95 days, suggesting challenges in inventory turnover, particularly in smaller cities [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, continued policy easing is expected to support transaction volumes in core cities, with stable price expectations likely to strengthen market confidence [3] - The release of policy benefits and traditional seasonal effects are anticipated to drive a rebound in transaction volumes in core cities, particularly in areas where purchase restrictions have been relaxed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in housing prices across 70 major cities in September, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, suggesting a stabilization in the real estate market [1][2]. New Housing Market - In September, first-tier cities saw new housing prices decrease by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.6% and 1.0% [1]. - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.4%, while third-tier cities also saw a 0.4% decrease, indicating a consistent downward trend [1]. - The new housing market is characterized by significant differentiation among cities, with first-tier cities showing stronger performance [2]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities saw a month-on-month price decline of 1.0%, with specific decreases in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1]. - The average listing duration for second-hand homes increased to 95 days, with third and fourth-tier cities reaching 99 days, indicating a greater difficulty in sales compared to core cities [2]. - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to a "price for volume" strategy, as many listings have not adjusted their prices in line with market conditions [2]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4, the expectation is that policy easing will continue to support transaction volumes in core cities, with stable price expectations further reinforcing market confidence [3]. - The core cities are anticipated to see a rebound in transaction volumes, driven by policy incentives and seasonal demand [3]. - However, the second-hand market may still face price pressures, with high listing volumes indicating ongoing challenges [3]. Key Market Indicators - Key indicators for market stabilization include land market performance, inventory de-stocking cycles, and adjustments in second-hand listing prices [3][4]. - The land premium rates in core city areas are seen as a significant indicator of developer confidence, while high land auction failure rates may signal ongoing market adjustments [3]. - The overall de-stocking cycle for first and second-tier cities has decreased to under 12 months, suggesting an acceleration in inventory reduction [3].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou shows a significant year-on-year increase in transaction volume, contrasting with a decline in new housing transactions. The market is characterized by a strong demand from first-time buyers and a stable high-end segment, while the middle-tier demand is weakening [2][14]. Summary by Sections Transaction Volume and Structure - In September 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 30 key cities increased by 9% year-on-year, while new housing transactions showed a declining trend [2]. - The proportion of transactions under 2 million yuan in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has increased, indicating a strong presence of first-time buyers [3][14]. Price Segmentation - The share of transactions priced below 2 million yuan in Shanghai reached 46.56%, with a month-on-month increase of 2.79 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 7.51 percentage points [3]. - Conversely, the middle-tier segments (500-600 million yuan) in these cities have seen a decline in transaction share, reflecting increased buyer hesitation [3][14]. High-End Market Stability - The high-end market remains stable, with luxury properties priced over 10 million yuan in Beijing and Shanghai showing resilience, while Shenzhen's luxury market (3-5 million yuan) has also seen significant growth [3][14]. Area and Size Trends - The majority of transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are concentrated in small-sized properties (under 70 square meters), which account for over 30% of total transactions [7]. - In Hangzhou, there is a notable increase in the transaction share of larger properties (over 160 square meters), catering to buyers looking for long-term living solutions [7][14]. Regional Focus - The transaction share in Shanghai is increasingly concentrated in suburban areas, while Beijing and Hangzhou see a focus on core urban districts [11][14]. - The top three areas with the highest transaction growth in September 2025 include Beijing's Chaoyang District and Shenzhen's Longgang District, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards more central locations [11][14]. Market Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in October, with prices still in a downward cycle. The market is transitioning to a buyer's market, where buyers are more selective based on location, amenities, and price [14].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities in China showed signs of recovery in September, with increased transaction volumes, but prices remain under pressure, continuing the trend of "trading price for volume" [1][3]. Group 1: First-tier Cities - In Beijing, the second-hand housing market saw a significant increase in activity, with transaction volumes up nearly 20% month-on-month and year-on-year, totaling 15,843 units, a month-on-month increase of 18.8% and a year-on-year increase of 19.4% [2]. - Despite the increase in transaction volume, Beijing's second-hand residential prices fell by 0.60% month-on-month and 4.27% year-on-year [2]. - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions increased by 27% year-on-year, with 17,723 units sold, a month-on-month increase of 2.7% [2]. - In Guangzhou, the average listing price for second-hand residential properties fell by 0.97% month-on-month and 6.13% year-on-year [2]. - Shenzhen experienced over a 40% year-on-year increase in transaction volume, while prices remained stable month-on-month [2]. Group 2: Second-tier Cities - In Hangzhou, the market activity improved with the end of high temperatures, but prices continued to fluctuate [3]. - Chengdu saw growth in transaction volumes under the "trading price for volume" strategy, but the month-on-month price decline expanded [3]. - Nanjing's second-hand housing market remained relatively flat, with continued price declines [3]. - Wuhan's transaction volume was stable, but prices faced significant downward pressure [3]. - In Chongqing, second-hand housing prices continued to decline, with an expanding drop [3]. - Tianjin's prices further decreased, particularly in suburban areas [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall second-hand housing market showed signs of recovery in September, with increased transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, as well as some recovery in other core cities like Wuhan and Chengdu [3]. - The Central Index Research Institute expects continued moderate recovery in transaction activity in key cities in October, although last year's fourth-quarter high base may impact year-on-year growth rates [3].

智通财经APP获悉，10月17日，中指研究院发布，9月，二手房交易活跃度有所回升，其中北上深新政效应持续，二手房成交 量同环比均保持增长，其他核心城市二手房成交也有所修复，但"以价换量"现象延续。 北京：9月二手房市场活跃度明显提升，成交套数同环比增长近20%，价格跌幅略有扩大 图：2020年9月至2025年9月北京二手住宅成交套数及二手住宅价格环比走势 数据来源：中指数据CREIS 政策层面，9月11日，国务院批复同意10个地区要素市场化配置综合改革试点实施方案，各地区在土地要素市场化配置中多涉 及盘活存量土地和低效建设用地、深化产业用地市场化改革等方面；同日自然资源部在政策例行吹风会中，强调鼓励采取市 场化方式盘活存量闲置土地。 地方层面，9月，深圳放宽限购区域，符合条件的居民家庭，在非核心区购房不限套数；上海优化房产税政策，满足条件的非 本市户籍家庭购买二套及以上住房可享受房产税税收优惠；深圳、河南等地扩宽提取公积金使用范围，支持提取公积金支付 购房税费、用于住房装修等；广东、湖南、山东、福建发行超197亿元专项债券收回收购闲置存量土地。 9月十大城市二手房价格环比均下跌，短期价格仍面临一定压力 图：2 ...