Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is expected to continue the vehicle replacement policy until 2026, but Q1 2026 may face a demand overdraft period. Investors are advised to focus on globally competitive Chinese companies and embrace new industry trends [1][10]. Passenger Vehicle Market - The vehicle replacement policy is likely to continue, with Q1 2026 potentially being the worst period for the industry. Long-term investments should prioritize companies with overseas market potential [1][3]. - In the first ten months of 2025, China's wholesale passenger vehicle sales reached 24.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with new energy vehicle sales at 12.18 million units, up 32% [2]. New Energy Vehicles - The purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles is set to decline in 2026, and while the vehicle replacement policy may continue, there will be changes compared to 2025. A demand overdraft period of approximately 3-4 months is anticipated [3]. - The total sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2026 are expected to reach 1.811 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [3]. Autonomous Driving - 2025 is projected to be a year of accelerated penetration for intelligent driving, with high-speed NOA and urban NOA penetration rates reaching 16% and 14%, respectively [4]. - The intelligent driving industry is shifting from "function definition" to "data definition," with several trends emerging, including increased parameter counts in models and the importance of world models and reinforcement learning [4]. Humanoid Robots - Tesla's fourth chapter of its grand vision emphasizes bringing AI into the physical world, with humanoid robots being a core product. The Optimus V3.0 is expected to be released in Q1 2026 [5][6]. - The Chinese robot supply chain is well-established, and domestic companies are expected to play a significant role in the development of humanoid robots due to their manufacturing capabilities [6]. Commercial Vehicles - In the first ten months of 2025, commercial vehicle sales reached 3.472 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The heavy truck segment is expected to benefit from the vehicle replacement policy [7]. - The export of heavy trucks in 2025 is projected to reach 274,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 12% [7]. Two-Wheel Vehicles - The domestic market is undergoing a supply upgrade, with new national standards promoting industry normalization and leading to the exit of smaller brands. The market is expected to recover in the long term [8]. - Exports of large-displacement motorcycles increased by 59.1% in the first ten months of 2025, indicating strong overseas demand [8].

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，预计2026年汽车行业以旧换新政策延续的概率较大，但 Q1行业或仍将面临一段时间的需求透支期。建议投资人聚焦具有全球竞争力的中国企业，全面拥抱产 业新趋势。2026年上半年有望跑赢的投资标的包括：1)出海景气延续、出海盈利弹性大的乘用车和商用 车龙头企业;2)自动驾驶加速渗透带来的头部智驾公司、上游产业链、L4公司的投资机会;3)人形机器人 的产业趋势，将继续为板块提供业绩和估值的双重驱动，建议聚焦特斯拉等人形机器人企业的上游核心 零部件公司。 中信证券主要观点如下： 乘用车总量：以旧换新政策有望延续，2026Q1或是行业最差时间，优先选择出海品种进行长期布局。 根据中汽协数据，2025年1-10月，我国乘用车批发销量为2417万辆，同比+12.8%，新能源乘用车批发销 量为1218万辆，同比+32%，渗透率为50.4%。今年乘用车同比增长超预期，主要受益于以旧换新补贴政 策的延续、海外多个市场出口销量的增长。根据商务部发布的1-11月补贴总量数据，预计2025全年总补 贴申请合计将达1240万份，预计总补贴金额将达1650亿元，对2025年的实际销量增量拉动可能达 ...

人民财讯12月12日电，中信证券发布汽车行业2026年投资策略：预计2026年汽车行业以旧换新政策延续 的概率较大，但一季度行业或仍将面临一段时间的需求透支期。中信证券建议投资人聚焦具有全球竞争 力的中国企业，全面拥抱产业新趋势。认为2026年上半年有望跑赢的投资标的包括：1)出海景气延续、 出海盈利弹性大的乘用车和商用车龙头企业；2)自动驾驶加速渗透带来的头部智驾公司、上游产业链、 L4公司的投资机会；3)人形机器人的产业趋势，将继续为板块提供业绩和估值的双重驱动，建议聚焦特 斯拉等人形机器人企业的上游核心零部件公司。 ...

作为今年以旧换新政策结束前的最后一个消费节点，虽然相较于双十一，双十二以旧换新补贴名额申领 门槛较高的情况已得到缓解，但平台对家电及消费电子的促销声势和各大品牌的营销力度亦有所淡化。 近期，国家发改委、财政部联合发布信息称，第四批国家消费品"以旧换新"补贴，690亿元中央财政资 金正在全国范围内加速发放，全国统一截止时间为2025年12月31日24时，不设延期、不补发，额度用完 即停。 多位业内人士在与记者交流时表示，年内家电市场需求已基本出清，自今年年底至明年上半年，家电产 业或将迎来一波市场调整期，短期内可采取渐进的价格策略，为来年的下一波行情提前做好铺垫。 需求收缩 12月8日，随着双十二开启，2025年度最后一轮电商大促也拉开帷幕。 从宏观数据角度来看，今年双十一堪称家电产业历年来销售情况最为惨淡大促节点的之一。 奥维云网（AVC）推总数据显示，2025年双十一促销期（W41-46），大家电市场下滑态势明显，空 调、冰箱、冷柜、洗衣机、干衣机全渠道零售额分别降比33.9%、26.4%、10.4%、22.1%、43.0%。 新兴品类同样面临同比下滑的窘境。 洛图科技数据显示，2025年双11促销期间扫地 ...

Core Insights - The consumption market in Linxia is experiencing robust growth, with a total retail sales of social consumer goods reaching 12.344 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, outperforming national and provincial averages [1] Group 1: Consumption Policies and Initiatives - The local government has implemented an "old-for-new" policy, securing 144 million yuan in provincial funds, resulting in 119,000 orders and 1.22 billion yuan in subsidies, directly boosting consumption by 717 million yuan [3] - The "Discover Treasure Linxia" food consumption season and various cultural festivals have been organized to stimulate local consumption, with over 500 events enhancing consumer engagement [5] Group 2: Business Development and Support - The state has focused on nurturing enterprises through initiatives like the "Ten Hundred Thousand" business cultivation program, resulting in a threefold increase in the number of enterprises over three years, reaching 249 [7] - The wholesale industry has seen a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, while the catering industry has grown by 7.8%, indicating strong resilience among local market players [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The government is preparing for winter consumption initiatives, continuing to leverage the benefits of the "old-for-new" policy and enhancing enterprise support to ensure sustained market vitality [8]

她认为，PPI分行业同比数据，从三个维度清晰展现了我国各项宏观政策持续发力显效，价格走势呈现 积极向好的变化态势。一是综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。具体来看， 煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子电池制造价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄3.8个、2.0 个和0.7个百分点，均已连续多个月收窄；新能源车整车制造价格降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。二是新 兴产业快速发展，带动相关行业价格同比上涨。三是消费潜力有效释放，带动有关行业价格同比回升向 好。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，当前，"以旧换新"政策发力，汽车、家电等商品价格同比数据上行 势头较为明显，这是近期核心CPI同比涨幅扩大的主要原因。 冠通期货研究咨询部经理王静告诉期货日报记者，11月数据显示，物价温和回升势头仍需加力巩 固，"反内卷"政策的力度有待进一步提升。创元期货研究员刘钇含也表示，11月物价水平基本已经筑 底，但工业品价格走势偏弱，需要继续出台提振需求的相关政策，促进物价水平进一步企稳回升。 王青表示，未来一段时间物价水平偏低格局将延续，这为年底前后稳增长政策发力特别是央行适度降息 提供了充分空间，当前无需担心 ...

智通财经APP获悉，乘联分会数据显示，12月1-7日，全国乘用车市场零售29.7万辆，同比去年12月同期下降32%，较上月同期下降8%，今年以来累计零售 2,178.1万辆，同比增长5%;12月1-7日,全国乘用车厂商批发29.8万辆，同比去年12月同期下降40%，较上月同期下降18%，今年以来累计批发2,706.3万辆，同 比增长10%。 2025年12月开局的车市零售走势不强，由于去年12月市场持续拉升火爆，今年零售增速偏低。以旧换新政策刺激的是换购需求，并非刚性购买需求，消费群 体的政策敏感度极高，需求波动较大。受政策收缩的影响，11月车市零售是环比下降，目前12月初的零售相较11月也是增长偏弱的。 国家宏观经济持续向好，消费信心相对稳定，但由于部分地区的以旧换新和报废更新补贴政策大幅收紧，11月零售出现环比负增长，而且燃油车零售达到下 降22%，因此近期经销商的观望心态也较强。随着反内卷的效果良好，市场促销力度保持温和，因此月初的零售进度并不快。受今年新能源车车购税免税到 期，明年买车多5个点车购税的政策影响，消费者年末购车紧迫感仍会很强。为应对交付周期延长导致的消费者购车成本上升，车企纷纷推出购置税 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，11月"反内卷"政策推进，汽车"价格战"等会继续受到约束，"以旧换新"政策还会对覆盖范围内的家电、电子 产品价格形成一定支撑。加之11月国际金价继续大幅上涨，会给能源之外的工业消费品价格带来上涨动能。不过，受消费信心不振等影响，当前促消费政策 覆盖范围之外的商品价格内生上涨动能依然偏低。 往后看，财信金控首席经济学家伍超明对智通财经表示，低基数、"反内卷"政策以及财政增量政策落地将共同推升四季度通胀中枢水平，但在外部需求走 弱、国内稳地产与稳就业压力犹存的情况下，CPI整体回升幅度有限，低通胀格局难改。 王青预计，全年CPI累计同比将在0值附近，增速较上年回落0.2个百分点，核心CPI累计同比也会处于1.0%以下的低位。 "这背后的根本原因是楼市调整已逾4年，居民财富持续缩水，消费信心不足。另外，今年外部环境波动加剧，国际原油价格显著下跌，也在向国内CPI传 导。当前物价走势的一个重要支撑点在于，以旧换新政策发力下，汽车、家电等商品价格同比数据上行势头较为明显。这是近期核心CPI同比涨幅扩大的主 要原因。"他说。 记者 辛圆 国家统计局周三发布数据显示，11月，中国消 ...

Group 1 - In November, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 21.483 million units, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year [1] - Passenger car exports in November were 601,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 52.4% and a month-on-month increase of 9.1%. For the first 11 months of the year, exports totaled 5.151 million units, up 17.2% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - In November, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the domestic passenger car retail market reached 59.3%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year, setting a new historical high. This growth is attributed to policies such as trade-in subsidies and exemption from purchase tax for NEVs [2][3] - The sales of pure electric vehicles have outpaced those of plug-in hybrid and range-extended models, primarily due to the impact of "two new" policies promoting high-cost performance pure electric models. In November, sales of plug-in hybrids and range-extended models declined [2] Group 3 - In November, BYD led the passenger car retail market with sales of 307,000 units, followed by Geely with 268,000 units, and FAW-Volkswagen with 138,000 units. Other brands like Chery, Changan, and SAIC-GM-Wuling also exceeded 100,000 units in sales [2] - Domestic brands accounted for nearly 70% of the market share this year, with German brands experiencing the fastest decline. BYD, Geely, and Chery ranked the top three in incremental sales, while brands like Leap Motor and Xpeng saw significant growth [3] Group 4 - The automotive market is not experiencing the typical seasonal sales increase at year-end, primarily due to the reduction of replacement subsidies, leading many consumers to purchase vehicles earlier [4] - In the high-end market, domestic brands have the potential to capture a larger share. For the mass market, overseas sales appear to be a key channel for profit growth [4] Group 5 - Chinese automotive brands are expected to see significant growth in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, with brands like BYD leading in sales in Indonesia [5] - Localization of production is becoming essential for Chinese automotive companies as they expand globally. Starting in 2025, domestic brands will accelerate overseas production capacity, transitioning from single product exports to localized production and global services [6]

Group 1: Consumer Market Dynamics - The tax data from the State Taxation Administration indicates a positive shift in China's consumer market, driven by various consumption-boosting policies and new consumption scenarios [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly stimulated consumer demand, with retail sales of communication devices and daily household appliances increasing by 20.3% and 26.5% year-on-year, respectively, from January to November [1] - The sales revenue of new energy passenger vehicles also showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% during the same period [1] Group 2: Sports and Health Consumption - The sports and health sectors are experiencing heightened activity, with sports event-related economic output increasing significantly, leading to a multiplier effect on consumption [2] - From January to November, the retail sales of sports exhibition services and sports goods grew by 29.7% and 6.6% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Health-related consumption is also on the rise, with sales of health auxiliary treatment equipment and health consulting services increasing by 14.1% and 11.9% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The cultural and tourism sectors are witnessing a surge in new business models and scenarios, enhancing consumer vitality [2] - Sales revenue from artistic creation and performance, as well as film screenings, increased by 15.6% and 19.1% year-on-year, respectively, from January to November [2] - The integration of tourism with cultural activities has led to significant growth in related services, with travel agency services, scenic spots, and leisure activities seeing year-on-year increases of 10.8%, 29.4%, and 16.6%, respectively [2] Group 4: Demographic Consumption Trends - The elderly and young consumer groups are showing substantial consumption potential, with the elderly market projected to exceed 100 trillion yuan by 2050 [3] - From January to November, spending on elderly care services, social assistance, and nursing home services grew by 33.6%, 9.6%, and 14.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Among younger consumers, spending on digital cultural services, particularly those related to emotional value and social attributes, increased by 16.5% year-on-year [3] Group 5: Future Policy Directions - The State Taxation Administration plans to continue implementing tax and fee policies that support consumption, aiming to optimize tax payment services and stimulate domestic demand [3]