作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 受关税政策扰动等因素的影响，二季度经济增速或将较一季度放缓，但仍有望实现5%以上的增长。 国家统计局将于7月15日发布二季度宏观经济数据。目前发布的多项高频数据和先行指标显示，工业 生产、消费、投资、企业经营等多领域继续改善。 2025.07. 14 本文字数：3488，阅读时长大约6分钟 第一财经研究院发布的最新一期"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为49.9，稍低于50荣枯线。经济 学家们认为，我国经济面临国内外的诸多挑战，但发展韧性和潜力仍存，景气度将延续修复态势。他 们对2025年第二季度GDP同比增速的预测均值为5.07%。 国家发改委13日发布的消息称，发改委主任郑栅洁日前赴河北省雄安新区、石家庄和灵寿县等地调 研，并主持召开经济形势座谈会。郑栅洁表示，面对复杂严峻的外部形势，一系列稳就业稳经济的政 策举措接续发力，高质量发展扎实推进，新质生产力发展步伐加快，社会大局保持稳定。大家一定要 牢固树立发展信心。要不断健全与企业、地方高效的沟通协调机制，着力推动解决经济运行中的突出 矛盾和问题，共同推动全年目标任务圆满完成。 二季度GDP增速略有放缓 二季度以来，外部冲击明显加 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor (DFLZ) is poised for growth in the second half of 2025, leveraging market opportunities and strategic initiatives to enhance sales and brand value [1][6]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - In the first half of 2025, DFLZ achieved commercial vehicle sales of 23,348 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, outperforming the market [4]. - The sales of the Chao Long brand's various models have steadily increased, with several models ranking among the top in their respective segments [4]. - The sales of express transport tractors grew by 12.7%, maintaining a top-three position in the industry, while port tractors saw a remarkable 222% increase [4]. - The market share of cargo vehicles has consistently improved over six months, ranking second in the southern region, with the large single-bridge model entering the top three in its segment [4]. - The engineering vehicle segment remains dominant, with traditional energy vehicles holding the top market share, and the six-cylinder models leading the industry [4]. - The sales of specialized vehicles have seen three consecutive years of growth, with feed transport vehicles leading the market [4]. - The new energy vehicle segment experienced a robust growth of 41% year-on-year, indicating strong momentum [4]. Group 2: Marketing and Brand Development - DFLZ expanded its marketing network to 79 locations and introduced 10 new partners, including logistics and platform companies, to explore innovative sales models [5]. - The "317" management system empowered 41 partners, significantly enhancing channel effectiveness and driving terminal performance [5]. - The Chao Long heavy truck brand has successfully entered the top three in industry influence, while the "1+M+N" digital marketing system has improved marketing efficiency and customer engagement [5]. - Total exposure for brand accounts reached 430 million, a 20% increase year-on-year, facilitating scalable content production and precise audience targeting [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The second half of 2025 is expected to benefit from favorable policies such as trade-in incentives, accelerated phase-out of National IV vehicles, and cold chain logistics subsidies, which will likely boost demand for heavy and light trucks [6]. - DFLZ aims to enhance its capabilities in eight core areas, including strategic operations, channel development, brand building, and customer engagement, to create a comprehensive customer value service system [7]. - The company targets annual sales of 40,000 units, with a goal of reaching 43,000 units, focusing on both market sales and brand value enhancement [7]. - Training sessions on product empowerment, marketing standards, and used vehicle business were conducted to strengthen marketing capabilities and responsiveness to market changes [7][9]. - DFLZ emphasizes collaboration with partners to navigate market challenges and seize new opportunities in the second half of the year [11].

Price Trends - June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after four months of negative figures[7] - June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to expand compared to the previous month[7] - Core CPI rose to 0.7% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 14 months, supported by the "trade-in" policy[14] Consumer Behavior - The "trade-in" subsidy policy has been a significant factor in supporting durable goods prices, leading to a slight recovery in core CPI[7] - Food prices saw a marginal improvement, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 0.7% month-on-month, better than seasonal trends[12] - Service-related prices remained weak, indicating limited progress in the recovery of household balance sheets[7] Economic Risks - The ongoing uncertainty in the real estate market poses risks to economic stability[3] - External pressures, including tariff issues and uncertain foreign demand, continue to affect the economy[30] - The potential overspending of future consumption demand due to the "trade-in" policy could lead to economic challenges[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy, which is anticipated to support consumer demand and sales growth in 2025 [16] - The report highlights a new phase of domestic brands entering a strategic offensive towards high-end development, with companies offering quality products priced above 300,000 yuan likely to benefit significantly [16] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-level intelligent driving technologies to become more affordable, which could increase their penetration rates [16] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 0.4% from July 7 to July 11, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1% [17] - In June 2025, the wholesale volume of automobiles reached 2.904 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [30] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, SAIC Group, BYD, Great Wall Motors for high-end supply [16] - XPeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Coboda for intelligent driving technologies [16] - Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology for robotics production [16] - Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Yinlun Co. for quality auto parts [16] - Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck for commercial vehicles [16] Earnings Forecasts - Key companies and their projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E include: - Yinlun Co.: 0.92, 1.28, 1.59 [49] - Baolong Technology: 1.44, 2.56, 3.22 [49] - BYD: 13.84, 18.15, 22.13 [49] - Li Auto: 4.16, 5.43, 8.33 [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly highlighting the white goods sector as undervalued with high dividend yields and stable growth potential [4][5]. Core Insights - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. **White Goods**: The reversal of real estate policies is expected to boost the white goods sector, with a projected domestic production increase of 8% in the upcoming months. The report recommends stocks like Hisense Home Appliances, Midea, Haier, and Gree [5]. 2. **Exports**: Companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. are highlighted for their stable profit growth driven by large customer orders and recovering overseas demand [5]. 3. **Core Components**: The report emphasizes the unexpected demand for core components in the white goods sector, recommending companies such as Huaxiang Co., Shun'an Environment, and Sanhua Intelligent Control for their competitive advantages and growth prospects [5]. Summary by Sections A. Clean Appliances Data - In June 2025, online sales of sweeping machines reached 352,300 units, up 34.11% year-on-year, with sales revenue of 576 million yuan, an increase of 44.07%. The average price rose by 7.43% to 1,634.50 yuan per unit [4][31]. - For washing machines, sales were 257,400 units, up 32.43% year-on-year, with revenue of 411 million yuan, a 20.31% increase. The average price decreased by 9.15% to 1,598.10 yuan per unit [4][31]. B. Personal Care Data - In June 2025, hair dryer sales fell by 28.23% to 918,300 units, but revenue increased by 1.57% to 30.5 million yuan, with an average price rise of 41.52% to 332.0 yuan per unit [5][39]. - Electric shaver sales decreased by 1.81% to 1,140,900 units, while revenue grew by 5.76% to 25 million yuan, with an average price increase of 7.68% to 218.7 yuan per unit [5][39]. C. Industry Dynamics - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 0.3% decline in the home appliance index while the CSI 300 rose by 0.8% [6][7]. - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. is expected to impact the industry, as copper is a key material for many appliances [6][13]. D. Material Prices - As of July 11, 2025, copper prices were 78,730 yuan per ton, down 1.19% year-on-year, while aluminum prices rose by 3.25% to 20,785 yuan per ton [16][20].

Group 1 - The market trend has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward phase in the second half of the year, potentially surpassing the peak in the second half of 2024 [4] - The U.S. is accelerating the Section 232 investigation, with a high likelihood of imposing tariffs on copper, while the feasibility of drug tariffs remains low; results are expected to be announced in the second half of the year [10] - The net profit forecast for Qiu Tai Technology has been raised by 20%/31%/40% for 2025/2026/2027, driven by the strong growth in IoT module shipments and product specification upgrades [14] Group 2 - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71%, supported by rising prices and reduced processing costs [20] - Juhua Co. anticipates significant profit growth due to the ongoing high demand for refrigerants, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards by 11%/10%/8% [24] - Miao Ke Lan Duo expects a net profit of 120 million to 145 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68.1% to 103.1%, driven by strong market positioning in cheese [31] Group 3 - Tesla's global delivery volume showed a recovery in Q2 2025, while domestic new energy vehicle brands are intensifying competition, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior [36] - China Hongqiao expects a net profit increase of approximately 35% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 12.36 billion yuan, supported by stable aluminum prices and resource availability [42] - Honglu Steel Structure reported double-digit growth in order volume and production in Q2 2025, with ongoing improvements in smart manufacturing processes enhancing competitive advantages [46]

Legal Dispute Update - Sichuan Changhong's subsidiary, Changhong Jiahua, is involved in a legal dispute with Suning, with the case amount exceeding 890 million yuan [1] - The first instance ruling ordered Suning to pay 722 million yuan in principal and 173 million yuan in funds occupation fees, with additional interest calculated based on the loan market rate [2][3] - Suning has appealed the first instance ruling, and the case is currently in the second instance stage [2][3] Financial Performance - Sichuan Changhong announced a cash dividend of 0.05 yuan per share, totaling 231 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 65.62% of the net profit for 2024 [4] - The company reported a revenue of approximately 103.7 billion yuan for 2024, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit exceeding 700 million yuan, up 2.3% [4] - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 439 million to 571 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 56.53% to 103.59% [4] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantages and optimize operational efficiency in response to a complex macro environment and market competition [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to expand domestic demand and strengthen the domestic circulation, with Shaanxi province actively implementing consumption-boosting initiatives in response to national strategies [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth Data - From January to May, Shaanxi's retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.2% year-on-year, building on last year's rapid growth, with commodity retail sales up by 6.3% and catering revenue up by 5.9% [1] - Eight cities, including Tongchuan, Baoji, and Xianyang, achieved double-digit growth in retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Specific categories such as grain and oil, tobacco and alcohol, and cultural office supplies saw year-on-year growth of 15.9%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Impact of Trade-in Policies - The trade-in policy has been a significant driver of consumption upgrades, continuously releasing policy dividends and injecting momentum into economic growth [1] - In the first half of the year, the sales revenue of Shaanxi Suning increased by 40% year-on-year, with store foot traffic up by 45%, attributed to various subsidies [2] - The sales of new energy vehicles in Shaanxi saw a year-on-year increase of 18.5% in the first five months, fueled by ongoing automotive consumption subsidies [2] Group 3: Financial Support and Policy Implementation - Shaanxi secured 7.4 billion yuan in national subsidy funds to support the trade-in policy, implementing a combination of strategies including policy stacking, category expansion, service optimization, market regulation, and promotional guidance [3] - As of June 18, Shaanxi's trade-in program facilitated the exchange of 737.77 million items, with 5.845 billion yuan in funds applied for, driving a total consumption of 48.675 billion yuan, resulting in a leverage ratio of 8.33 [4] Group 4: Innovative Consumer Experiences - Shaanxi's commercial institutions are innovating shopping experiences, enhancing service offerings, and creating diverse and personalized experiences for consumers [4] - The Seg International Shopping Center in Xi'an introduced an immersive shopping experience with activities like bird performances and interactive elements, aiming to attract consumers through engaging experiences [4] - New types of shopping districts are emerging, integrating tourism and commerce to provide enhanced consumer experiences, supported by various promotional measures [5] Group 5: Future Consumption Strategies - Shaanxi plans to continue optimizing consumption policies and innovating consumption models in the second half of the year to further tap into consumption potential [5] - Collaborative efforts with local governments, cultural tourism enterprises, and financial institutions are being made to promote high-quality service consumption and organize large-scale cultural events [5]

Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is stable, supported by strong external demand and improving internal demand, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% [2][3] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth rate of 5.4%, and the positive trend continued into the second quarter [2][3] - Key drivers of economic growth include the "old-for-new" consumption policy, large-scale equipment updates, and robust infrastructure investment [3][4] Consumption and Investment - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5% year-on-year from January to May [4][5] - Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% during the same period, driven by strong service sector investment and equipment upgrades [4][6] - Exports grew by 6% from January to May, supported by "grabbing exports" and "turning exports" strategies [4][6] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary policy remained flexible and moderately loose, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7][8] - Fiscal policy showed a high intensity and rapid pace, with government debt net financing increasing by 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year from January to May [9][10] - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds accelerated, with nearly 2.2 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued by the end of June [9][10] Future Outlook - In the second half of the year, there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to lower financing costs for the real economy [16][20] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced in the third quarter, focusing on technology innovation and digital economy sectors [16][17] - The government plans to dynamically adjust budgets and expand fiscal spending to counter global trade uncertainties and support employment [17][20]

CPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The core CPI has been rising since the beginning of the year, with June's core CPI at 0.7%, the highest since May 2024, driven mainly by core goods rather than services [2] - Service retail growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% from January to May 2025, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively [2] - The core goods CPI is expected to remain resilient in Q3, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, while facing high base pressure in Q4 [5][6] Service Prices - Service prices have shown a downward trend since 2020, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% expected in 2025 [8] - Tourism prices have weakened significantly, with a monthly average growth rate of -0.4% from January to June 2025, indicating a bottleneck in domestic cultural and tourism consumption recovery [9] Food Prices - Food items account for about 18% of the CPI, with pork prices being particularly volatile due to the pig cycle [13] - Pork prices are expected to remain low in Q3, with a potential slight recovery in Q4 as seasonal demand increases [14] Oil Prices - Oil-related products account for approximately 3.5% of the CPI, with Brent crude oil prices averaging $71.9 per barrel in the first half of the year, down 14.7% year-on-year [18] - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half due to weak demand and ongoing supply pressures [19] PPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The PPI has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months, with significant price pressures across various industries [20] - Real estate investment and traditional infrastructure growth are dragging down building materials prices, contributing to a 0.9 percentage point decline in PPI [21] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to impact prices in certain industries, potentially providing some support to related commodity prices [29] Overall Economic Indicators - The forecast for PPI in the second half of the year is a slight recovery to around -2.3%, with Q3 PPI growth expected at -2.5% [30] - The GDP growth target for the second half of the year is set at 4.6%-4.7% to achieve an annual growth rate of 5.3%-5.4% [30]