Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a rebound in pessimistic sentiment among American individual investors, with bearish outlook rising from 36.7% to 41.9% over the past week, marking the 26th week above the historical average of 31.0% in the last 28 weeks [1] - The proportion of respondents holding an optimistic view for the short-term outlook decreased from 37.7% to 32.9%, remaining below the historical average of 37.5% for the 16th week out of the last 17 weeks [1] - A significant 64% of respondents identified "tariffs, economy, and/or inflation" as the most important factors influencing their six-month stock market outlook, followed by corporate earnings (11%), valuations (10%), and monetary policy and interest rates (9%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, emphasizing the importance of understanding index valuation percentiles and the associated risks when making investment decisions. Market Overview - The major indices, such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, have shown little fluctuation, while small-cap stocks have slightly declined [2][4]. - Value and dividend styles have seen minor increases, whereas growth styles have experienced slight declines [3][4]. - After a significant drop in early April, global markets have rebounded over the following weeks, but have recently entered a period of sideways movement [5][6]. Index Valuation Percentiles - The article highlights that percentile rankings can be a useful reference for current valuations in historical contexts [7][8]. - A 30% percentile indicates that 30% of historical valuations were lower than the current one [9]. Risks Associated with Percentile Valuation 1. **Short Historical Data**: Relying on a short time frame for index data can lead to misleading conclusions. Historical data should ideally encompass multiple market cycles [12][13]. - Solution: Use longer historical indices of similar styles for reference [14][15][16]. 2. **Changes in Index Rules**: Modifications in index selection criteria can alter valuation metrics, making historical comparisons less relevant [18][19][20]. - Solution: Recalculate historical valuations based on new rules [21]. 3. **Different Valuation Weighting Methods**: Variations in how indices calculate valuations can lead to discrepancies in percentiles. For example, the dividend index's valuation can differ significantly based on whether it is market-cap weighted or dividend-yield weighted [22][23][24][28]. - Solution: Calculate valuations based on the actual stocks held in the index [29]. 4. **Economic Downturns**: During economic slowdowns, declining earnings can artificially inflate price-to-earnings ratios, skewing percentile rankings [5][30]. - Solution: Use stable financial metrics for valuation when earnings are volatile [30][31]. New Features and Tools - A new feature in the "Today Stars" mini-program has been launched, allowing users to access ETF valuation tables and identify undervalued ETFs [32][35]. - The program provides real-time data on ETF valuations, including premium/discount rates and historical valuation data [35]. Investor Engagement - The article encourages investors to share their experiences and thoughts, particularly regarding the three-year anniversary of the investment strategy, highlighting the importance of perseverance during market downturns [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure on its FY25 performance, with a projected revenue decline of 6.6% to 27,013 million RMB and a significant drop in net profit by 41.9% to 1,286 million RMB [8] - Despite the challenges, the company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, estimated at 134%, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company has introduced new brand collaborations and is adjusting its store strategy to improve sales performance [8] Financial Performance Summary - FY24A revenue was 28,933 million RMB, with a 6.9% year-on-year growth, while FY25A revenue is projected at 27,013 million RMB, reflecting a 6.6% decline [3] - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4% in FY25, primarily due to increased retail discounts [8] - The net profit margin for FY25 is expected to decline to 4.8%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous year [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY26 is projected to be 0.21 RMB, with a target price of 3.45 HKD based on a 15x PE valuation [3][9] Operational Insights - The company closed 1,124 stores in FY25, ending the year with 5,020 stores, while the total sales area decreased by 12.4% [8] - The company has initiated new brand partnerships, including SOAR running and Norrøna, to enhance its market presence [8]

截至2025年5月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为42.04，较上月45.53有所下降，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 结合上期数据来看，本期在估值和预期回暖的同时，情绪得分却有所下滑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月43.53，上月38.93）。估值整体有所回升，其中国防军工回升最为明 显，但行业间估值分化现象依然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算 机、汽车的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场 整体估值的调整，反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所上升（本月55.00，上月48.00）。宏观分析师认为，4月金融数据显示政策靠前发 力和低基数支撑社融，实体经济融资需求仍弱。中美互降关税后，投资者对于全球经济形势的担忧情绪有 所缓解。 市场情绪较上月有所下降（本月34.07，上月50.89；分数越低表示市场情绪越低迷），需要指出的是，统 计期内市场预期体现的是专业投资者对于市场的判断，而情绪指标则反应的是整体市场的交易情况。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant outperformance of small-cap stocks, represented by the CSI 2000 index, compared to large-cap stocks, represented by the CSI 300 index, since the beginning of the year, highlighting a typical small-cap style in the market [3][5] - The CSI 2000 index consists of companies with a median market capitalization of 4.4 billion, with 96% of companies having a market cap below 10 billion, indicating its small-cap nature [3][5] - The top five industries in the CSI 2000 index are mechanical equipment (13.8%), electronics (10.12%), computers (8.88%), biomedicine (7.42%), and automobiles (7.18%), which are all technology growth sectors [3][5][7] Group 2 - The CSI 300 index's top five industries include banking (13.8%), non-bank financials (10.6%), electronics (10.08%), food and beverage (9.53%), and power equipment (7.13%), showing a balance between growth and value attributes [5][7] - The performance of small-cap stocks is influenced by industry factors, with three of the top ten performing industries in the first half of the year being represented in the CSI 2000 index [7][10] - The geographic concentration of listed companies in advanced manufacturing provinces like Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai contributes to the higher representation of small-cap stocks in the CSI 2000 index [10] Group 3 - The article compares the performance and valuation metrics of small-cap stocks (CSI 2000) and large-cap stocks (CSI 300), noting that the median ROE for CSI 2000 is 1%, while for CSI 300 it is 2.56%, indicating lower profitability for small-cap stocks [12][14] - The median PE ratio for CSI 2000 is reported at 74 times, while for CSI 300 it is 20.5 times, suggesting that small-cap stocks are overvalued relative to their earnings [12][14] - Despite lower profitability, small-cap stocks have shown a median revenue growth of 3.57% and a net profit growth of 2.72% in the first quarter, compared to the CSI 300's revenue growth of 3.15% and net profit growth of 6.95% [14][15] Group 4 - The article highlights the differences in performance between small-cap stocks in the US (Russell 2000) and A-share small-cap stocks, noting that the Russell 2000 has a higher proportion of loss-making companies and lower profitability metrics [18][19] - The article attributes the underperformance of US small-cap stocks to high debt risks and a lack of growth in revenue and net profit, contrasting with the performance of A-share small-cap stocks [19][20] - The valuation of US small-cap stocks is lower than that of A-share small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000's forward PE ratio being significantly lower than that of the CSI 2000 [21][22] Group 5 - The article discusses the distinction between micro-cap stocks and small-cap stocks, emphasizing that micro-cap stocks have poor fundamentals and high valuations, which do not reflect their performance [24][25] - Even after excluding micro-cap and loss-making stocks, A-share small-cap stocks still exhibit high valuations compared to large-cap stocks and other markets [26][28] - The article concludes that the recent recovery trend in small-cap profitability represents a critical opportunity for these stocks to prove their value in the market [29][31]

| | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/07 | 4.297 | 4.512 | 3.257 | 2.539 | 3.626 | 3.191 | 0.280 | 3.369 | | 最新变化 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 一周变化 | 0.060 | 0.034 | 0.070 | 0.071 | 0.053 | 0.070 | -0.099 | 0.079 | | 一月变化 | 0.267 | -0.007 | -0.120 | -0.111 | -0.145 | -0.112 | -0.162 | -0.088 | | 一年变化 | -0.346 | 0.179 | 0.167 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 but a significant decline in net profit, primarily due to falling coal prices impacting its core coal trading business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.86%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 739 million yuan, a decrease of 30.25% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.949 billion yuan and net profit of 155 million yuan, representing declines of 4.91% and 35.44% year-on-year, respectively [1]. Coal Trading Business - The coal trading business, which contributes over 90% of the company's revenue, generated 41.487 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.95% year-on-year [2]. - Coal sales volume reached 59.5837 million tons in 2024, up 7.39% year-on-year, but revenue was negatively impacted by a decrease in coal prices, resulting in a gross profit of 1.074 billion yuan, down 446 million yuan from 2023 [2]. - The gross profit margin for coal trading was 2.59%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Thermal Power and New Energy Business - The thermal power generation business reported revenue of 3.135 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%, with a gross profit of 773 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase [3]. - The gross profit margin for the thermal power business improved to 24.68%, up 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The new energy business generated revenue of 56 million yuan, a decrease of 7.30% year-on-year, but the gross profit margin for this segment increased significantly by 19.81 percentage points [3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend plan for 2024-2026, committing to distribute at least 40% of the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [4]. - In 2024, the dividend payout ratio was 45.32%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.64% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.47 billion yuan, 4.56 billion yuan, and 4.71 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -0.03%, +2.00%, and +3.32%, respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the stock as of April 25, 2025, are estimated to be 9.73, 8.82, and 8.16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4].

以下文章来源于望京博格投基 ，作者望京博格 望京博格投基 . 记录望京博格投资基金的故事 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 望京博格 来源：雪球 一、港股是港币计价的人民币资产 但是腾讯的营收、资产、支出、发工资等等都是人民币，所以腾讯控股是人民币资产，专业点就是港币计价 的人民币资产。 在港股类似腾讯这样中资企业比比皆是~ 二、A股的估值不便宜 沪深300指数目前市盈率为12.26倍，处于最近10年43.33%的位置，只能说是不贵，但是绝对算不算便宜。 在2018年、2022年、2024年沪深300最低估值都触及10-11倍市盈率。 近期国家队兜底市场，累计申购1300亿沪深300ETF，给予沪深300指数极大的支撑。 很多人把港股当做海外资金，其实港股是实实在在的港币计价的人民币资产。 例如，腾讯控股在港股上市，股价是以港币计算的。 A股有国家队兜底，跌幅是有限，但是未来涨幅也有限。例如最近一年港股涨的不错，主要因为之前港股回 调的足够充分了；反观A股涨幅有限，是因为之前没有跌透。 三、纳指与标普未来情况不明 纳指100指数（NDX ...

Core Insights - The overseas market indices showed mixed performance in the past week (April 7-11, 2025), with US stocks rebounding from oversold conditions while European and Asia-Pacific indices generally declined. The valuation of US stocks expanded slightly, while European and Asia-Pacific markets experienced minor contractions due to the rapid decline on "Black Monday" [2][9] - The Nasdaq index, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw significant valuation expansions, with PE ratios increasing by 2.57x, 2.28x, and 1.95x respectively compared to April 4, 2025 [2][9] - In terms of quantiles, most major indices in regions other than the Dow Jones and Hong Kong are below the 20th percentile, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing significant valuation differentiation, currently at a PE below the 5th percentile over the past year [2][9] A-share Market Valuation - The core broad-based valuation of A-shares continued to contract, with mid-cap growth stocks experiencing notable declines. The National Index 2000 and CSI 1000 saw PE, PB, PS, and PCF ratios contract significantly, with PE reductions of 2.69x and 2.03x respectively [2][23] - As of April 11, 2025, the overall valuation levels of major A-share indices have contracted compared to the previous week, with PE, PB, and PS mostly in the 40%-55% quantile range, while PCF is in the 80%-85% quantile range over the past three years [2][24] - Large-cap growth stocks maintain superior short-term quantile levels, with rolling one-year quantile levels for PE, PB, PS, and PCF at 18.60%, 25.41%, 50.41%, and 33.06% respectively [2][24] Industry Valuation - Most primary industry valuations contracted this week, with significant declines in the midstream materials & manufacturing and TMT sectors. The power equipment industry experienced the largest drop, with a weekly decline of 8.09% [2][41] - The valuation of most primary industries contracted, with the comprehensive industry experiencing the largest contraction, while the retail and agriculture sectors saw slight PE expansions of 0.76x and 0.73x respectively [2][41] Emerging Industries - In the emerging industries, valuations mostly contracted, particularly in the renewable energy sector, which saw a significant drop of 8.87%. The valuation of photovoltaic stocks adjusted sharply, with a PE contraction of 5.55x [2][41] - The integrated circuit sector experienced valuation expansion, with a PE increase of 1.12x this week. Among popular concepts, the agricultural theme index saw a notable PE expansion of 7.58x [2][41]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while valuation is a crucial concept in equity investment, its direct impact on stock prices is inconsistent and influenced by various factors [2][6]. Valuation and Market Conditions - Valuation's influence on stock prices is unstable, as shown in a study by Everbright Securities, which analyzed the relationship between valuation and stock price movements across different industries from January 2013 to February 2025 [2]. - Market tolerance for valuation varies under different conditions, particularly in relation to earnings growth rates [4][5]. - High-growth scenarios (earnings growth above 30%) show minimal differences in returns between high and low valuation combinations, especially when growth exceeds 100% [5]. - Conversely, in low-growth scenarios, market tolerance for high valuations decreases, leading to better performance from lower valuation combinations [5]. Market Sentiment and Valuation Preferences - Market sentiment, represented by turnover rates, affects investor preferences for valuation. During bullish sentiment, investors favor high-valuation sectors, while in bearish conditions, they lean towards low-valuation sectors [5]. - The combination of market sentiment with valuation metrics significantly enhances the effectiveness of industry grouping based on PE ratios [5]. Complexity of Valuation - Valuation is important for providing a long-term perspective on investment levels, but the "reasonable valuation" at any given moment is subject to multiple influences [6]. - Acknowledging the complexity of valuation and maintaining a respectful attitude towards market dynamics is essential for assessing investment opportunities related to valuation fluctuations [6].