Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of a minority stake in Anhui Yingliu Aviation Technology Co., Ltd. by Yingliu Co., Ltd. is under scrutiny due to the company's ongoing losses and the valuation methods used for the transaction [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Yingliu Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 28.4615% of Yingliu Aviation for approximately 484 million yuan, with the overall valuation of Yingliu Aviation set at 1.672 billion yuan [2][3]. - Yingliu Aviation reported losses of approximately 50.5 million yuan in 2024 and 11.91 million yuan in the first quarter of the current year [3]. Group 2: Valuation Methodology - The valuation of Yingliu Aviation was assessed using both asset-based and market methods, with the asset-based method yielding a value of approximately 1.213 billion yuan and the market method yielding 1.672 billion yuan, resulting in a difference of about 459 million yuan, or 27.45% [3]. - Yingliu Co., Ltd. argues that the asset-based method fails to capture the value of core resources and future profitability potential due to ongoing R&D investments and initial losses typical in the industry [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Arrangements - The company has secured a bank loan of 380 million yuan from Bank of Communications for the acquisition, with a loan term of 10 years and an interest rate of 2.75% [5][6]. - Yingliu Co., Ltd. maintains that its operational cash flow and existing financing capabilities will adequately cover both daily operational needs and the funds required for the acquisition [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, emphasizing that economic downturns can present undervalued investment opportunities, contrary to the common belief that investments are only suitable during economic booms [10][19][18]. Market Overview - The market experienced a slight increase during the day, reaching a peak of 4.8 stars, but closed slightly down with the CSI All Share Index at 4.9 stars [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 saw minor gains, while small-cap stocks experienced slight declines [3]. - Value styles showed strong performance, with indices related to banks, dividends, and value overall rising [4][5]. - Growth styles saw a slight decrease [6]. Historical Context - The article outlines two types of bull markets: one driven by capital (e.g., 2015) and one driven by fundamentals (e.g., 2007, 2009, 2017, and early 2021) [11][12][13][15]. - It highlights that 2007 was a peak year for economic growth and corporate earnings, yet it also marked a significant market bubble [11]. - The 2009 stimulus plan led to a substantial increase in corporate earnings and a bull market, which eventually corrected [12]. - The year 2017 saw the fastest earnings growth in a decade, leading to elevated valuations [13][14]. Investment Timing - The article suggests that entering the market before fundamental improvements can yield significant returns [17]. - It warns that when most investors recognize a strong economy, it may already be too late, as valuations tend to be high at that point [18]. Economic Downturns - Economic downturns often correlate with slow corporate earnings growth, creating opportunities for undervalued investments [19]. - Historical examples include the 2008 financial crisis, where major indices reached low valuations, and subsequent recovery periods [20][21]. - The article notes that 2024 is projected to be a challenging year for corporate earnings, potentially leading to low valuations [21]. Valuation Data - The article provides valuation metrics for various indices, including P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields, indicating the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [24][33].

估值偏高，区间震荡 油脂月报 2025/07/04 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 交易咨询号： Z0022498 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 市场综述：本月三大油脂宽幅震荡为主，前期原油大涨及EPA政策利多带动油脂走强，后期因原油回落、棕榈油增产及估值偏高等因素有所 回落。菜油因菜籽进口成本较高仍高位震荡。路透调查显示，预计马来西亚2025年6月棕榈油库存为199万吨，比5月下降0.24%；产量预计为 170万吨，比5月下降4.04%；出口量预计为145万吨，比5月增长4.16%。马来西亚、印尼棕榈油上半年同比大幅增产趋势压制油脂价格。 国际油脂：EPA的RVO草案预计2026年美国生物燃料豆油需求量在750万吨，菜油需求量在320万吨，这相比于2024年补贴存在时期，同比增加 分别约150、80万吨，考虑到或有最大达10%的SRE，最终进口油脂需求增量如菜油、UCO等生柴原料都有一定幅度的折扣。RVO草案将在7月8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has shown strong performance, with all 42 stocks in the sector rising, driven by low interest rates and a preference for high dividend yields among long-term investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 4, 2023, the A-share banking sector has accumulated a rise of over 17% this year, with stocks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reaching new highs [1]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leads the sector with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, followed by banks like Qingdao Bank and Industrial Bank, each with gains exceeding 30% [2]. Group 2: Investment Appeal - The average dividend yield of the A-share banking sector is close to 4%, making it attractive compared to the current 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.65% and a one-year deposit rate below 1% [2]. - Institutional investors, including insurance funds, are increasingly favoring bank stocks due to their stable returns and the ongoing reform in the public fund industry, which is expected to enhance demand for bank shares [2][3]. Group 3: Valuation Recovery - Recent increases in shareholdings by major shareholders and executives signal positive future prospects for banks, suggesting that the valuation recovery of the banking sector may accelerate [4]. - Several banks, including Suzhou Bank and Qingdao Bank, have announced plans for significant share buybacks, reflecting confidence in their long-term investment value [4]. Group 4: Funding Dynamics - The recent regulatory changes aimed at promoting the high-quality development of public funds are expected to bring short-term incremental capital to the banking sector [5]. - The demand for stable return equity assets from institutional investors, particularly insurance funds, continues to support the potential for increased allocation to bank stocks [5].

估值反弹，下行不改 沥青月报 2025/07/04 徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03115061 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 相关指标 03 供应端 07 产业链结构图 04 库存 01 月度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：沥青主力合约近月走势（￥/吨） 3,000.0 3,100.0 3,200.0 3,300.0 3,400.0 3,500.0 3,600.0 3,700.0 3,800.0 3,900.0 4,000.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2 ...

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index increased by 1.32% this week, closing at 4662.51 points on July 4 [4] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 18341.42 billion yuan, with a week-on-week decrease of 9.22% [4] Top Performing Stocks - The top ten stocks with the highest gains this week included: 1. Tian Shou Pharmaceutical (600521.SH) with a gain of 23.34% 2. Daqian Energy (688303.SH) with a gain of 22.18% 3. Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) with a gain of 18.93% 4. Lepu Medical (300003.SZ) with a gain of 17.99% 5. Giant Network (002558.SZ) with a gain of 17.42% 6. Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) with a gain of 17.32% 7. Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) with a gain of 15.37% 8. Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ) with a gain of 14.57% 9. Shenzhou Taiyue (300002.SZ) with a gain of 13.70% 10. Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) with a gain of 13.36% [3] Underperforming Stocks - The ten stocks with the largest declines this week included: 1. Hengxuan Technology (688608.SH) with a loss of 33.40% 2. Huazhi Shihua (688120.SH) with a loss of 32.34% 3. Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ) with a loss of 22.87% 4. Weining Health (300253.SZ) with a loss of 8.77% 5. China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH) with a loss of 7.07% 6. Xingyuan Material (300568.SZ) with a loss of 6.99% 7. Cambricon Technologies (688256.SH) with a loss of 6.50% 8. Beiyi Innovation (603986.SH) with a loss of 5.93% 9. Jixiang Airlines (603885.SH) with a loss of 5.84% 10. New Zhou Bang (300037.SZ) with a loss of 5.49% [3] Fund Performance - This week, 38 CSI A500 funds collectively rose, with Pu Yin An Sheng leading at a 1.72% increase [5] - The top three funds by size were Huatai-PB (200.88 billion yuan), Guotai (181.5 billion yuan), and GF Fund (174.22 billion yuan) [5] Market Trends - A new trend has emerged in the Hong Kong stock market where A-share listed technology companies are increasingly pursuing secondary listings in Hong Kong [7] - The secondary listings provide diversified financing channels and enhance international market recognition for the companies [7] - The median discount rate for five companies planning secondary listings in Hong Kong is approximately -17% [7] - The core factors driving asset performance are expected to shift from external to internal influences in the second half of the year [7]

智通财经APP获悉，一年前工党在选举中以压倒性优势上台，虽为英国带来政治稳定和投资机遇，但其国内股市仍深陷困境。自基尔·斯塔默领导的新政 府执政以来，股票投资者回报持续疲软：富时100指数仅上涨7%，与同期德国、西班牙、意大利基准指数17%至27%的涨幅形成鲜明对比。 更令人担忧的是，当前增长势头已显脆弱——市场对工党能否在不加剧财政压力的前提下刺激经济增长缺乏信心，增税或扩大政府借款的预期持续升温， 进一步延长英国债市压力周期。叠加英国中央银行对降息的谨慎态度，投资者对英国经济及股市前景的疑虑难以消散。 英国央行制造的"不对称风险环境"尤为棘手：长期利率存在下行底线却无明确上限，"若全球经济增长未显著恶化，这种结构将持续压制英国资产"。 图2 这一压力既作用于富时100指数的国际大盘股，也波及本土中小盘股。即将到来的财报季将成为检验企业能否突破利率逆风的关键窗口。此外，英镑大幅 升值可能成为财报会议焦点——富时100成分股约75%收入来自海外，今年英镑兑美元已升值9.3%。 图1 德意志银行旗下DWS集团全球股票联席主管托马斯·舒斯勒指出："政府可操作空间有限，财政余力和投资者容忍度均面临约束。"尽管英国股 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250704: 择机做多MTO利润 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/7/3 | 2025/7/2 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) 0.66% | | | | MA01 太仓 山东 广东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 2450.00 2455.00 2295.00 2455.00 | 2434.00 2465.00 2260.00 2450.00 | 16.00 -10.00 35.00 5.00 | -0.41% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2366.00 | 2348.00 | 18.00 | 0.77% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2414.00 | 2404.00 | 10.00 | 0.42% | | | | | | | | | 1.55% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | 0.20% | | 及基差 | 甲醇现货价格 ...

y m 市 市 站 需 有 谨 风 慎 险 官 方 脂 热 线 M www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 网 ITC 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 -流的衍生品综合服务商 DAVA - | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SUL | | | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 | 国贸期货研究院 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/7/4 | | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | 2025年7月3日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年7月3日 | OFFF HM.N. | 周环比 | | | SP2601 | 5306 | 0. 42% | 0. 80% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5900 | 0. 00% | -0. 84% | | 期货价格 | ...

本文来自微信公众号：超越S曲线，作者：李刚强，题图来自：视觉中国 IPO节奏放缓，卖老股变成退出的一种重要手段。但老股应该按照什么估值卖，打几折，很多投资人在 面临这一问题时总是很纠结，不知道该如何定价。 实践过程中，卖老股的定价在卖方机构内部经常会遇到下面一些常见问题。 但对于退出人员来说，往往在市场找不到按照高价的买家。这个时候，市场愿意买的价格和投资经理愿 意卖的价格存在一定的差距，交易往往就难以达成。 遇到这种问题，我一般不太会强行地去说服投资经理接受某个价格，而是反问他"如果你是买家，你愿 意什么价格买入这家公司？"你愿意买入的这个价格，大差不差就是别人愿意买的价格。 不能你愿意8块钱买，一定要卖给别人10块钱。不能将市场买家当傻子。我认为正确的做法是，如果我 愿意8块钱买，那我就按照7块、7.5卖，你总要让买家有赚钱的机会，要让买家有占了点便宜的感觉。 二、国资LP觉得卖的折扣太低了 现在有很多基金，LP也是投委，有一定的投票权，甚至否决权。尤其是一些国资LP，既希望要尽快退 出，又希望卖的价格要高。经常遇到的问题是，好不容易在市场谈了个买家，投资经理也同意了，拿到 LP那去一沟通，LP说你这个折 ...