Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For bonds, expect no trend - driven market and maintain caution [5]. - For stocks, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and consider going long on stock index futures [7]. - For precious metals, the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue, and consider going long on gold futures [8]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to decline, and consider short - selling on rebounds [10]. - For iron ore, look for buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss [12]. - For coking coal and coke, consider short - selling on rebounds [14]. - For ferroalloys, the supply may exceed demand in the short term, and bulls should be cautious [16]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to rise in the short term [19]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [22]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [23]. - For natural rubber, look for long - buying opportunities after the market stabilizes [26]. - For PVC, the mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. - For urea, take a bullish view in the short term [30]. - For PX, consider cautious operations at low levels and pay attention to crude oil and the Middle - East situation [31]. - For PTA, consider going long at low levels and focus on the Middle - East situation [33]. - For ethylene glycol, take a cautiously bullish view and monitor port inventory and imports [34]. - For staple fiber, consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [36]. - For bottle chips, consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. - For soda ash, the long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [39]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is loose, and long - position holders should control their positions [42]. - For pulp, the market is under pressure, and the domestic chemical pulp market shows a weak upward trend [43]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus persists, and prices are hard to reverse [46]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract [48]. - For tin, prices are expected to oscillate [48]. - For nickel, prices are expected to oscillate [49]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [51]. - For palm oil, consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [53]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [55]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [58]. - For sugar, consider batch - buying [61]. - For apples, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [63]. - For live pigs, consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [65]. - For eggs, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. - For corn and starch, the corn market has support but faces pressure, and starch follows the corn market; adopt a wait - and - see strategy [68]. - For logs, beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [71]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day saw most bond futures close down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to be cautious [5]. Stocks - Stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Stock Exchange introduced an ESG action plan. Despite weak recovery momentum and tariff uncertainties, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long run, and going long on stock index futures is considered [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver futures declined. Most central banks are expected to increase gold reserves, and the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue. Going long on gold futures is considered [8]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn and over - capacity are suppressing prices. The market is in the off - season, and prices may continue to fall. Hot - rolled coils may follow the same trend [10]. Iron Ore - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The decline in iron - water production and the increase in imports have weakened the supply - demand pattern. The price is at a relatively high valuation. Buying at low levels and setting stop - loss are recommended [12]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures prices showed mixed performance. The market is in an oversupply situation. Coke production is decreasing, and prices may continue to decline. Short - selling on rebounds is considered [14]. Ferroalloys - Manganese and silicon ferroalloys rose slightly. Manganese ore shipments increased, and port inventory rebounded. Steel production declined, and ferroalloy supply may exceed demand in the short term [16]. Crude Oil - INE crude oil rose. Fund managers increased net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. Due to geopolitical risks, prices are expected to rise in the short term [18][19]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose strongly following crude oil. Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the market is uncertain. Going long on the main contract is considered [20][22]. Synthetic Rubber - The main contract rose. Supply pressure eased slightly, and the cost is expected to rebound, driving the market to stabilize and rebound. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate [23]. Natural Rubber - Futures prices rose slightly. Supply was affected by rain, and demand was weak. After the market stabilizes, look for long - buying opportunities [24][26]. PVC - The main contract rose. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is in the off - season. The mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. Urea - The main contract declined slightly. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by agricultural needs and overseas supply tightening. A short - term bullish view is taken [28][30]. PX - The main contract rose. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost was supported by rising crude oil prices. Prices may rise but with limited upside. Cautious operations at low levels are recommended [31]. PTA - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand increased, and the cost was supported by crude oil. Consider going long at low levels [32][33]. Ethylene Glycol - The main contract rose. Supply was affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inventory decreased slightly. Take a cautiously bullish view and monitor imports [34]. Staple Fiber - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand weakened, and the cost was supported. Consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [35][36]. Bottle Chips - The main contract rose. The cost was supported, supply decreased due to maintenance, and demand improved. Consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. Soda Ash - The main contract rose. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory increased. The long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [38][39]. Glass - The main contract rose. There is no obvious supply - demand driver. The market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. Caustic Soda - The main contract declined slightly. Supply may increase, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand is loose. Long - position holders should control their positions [41][42]. Pulp - The main contract rose. Downstream product production declined, and demand was weak. The domestic chemical pulp market showed a weak upward trend [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The main contract declined slightly. Supply remains high, demand slows down, and the supply - demand surplus persists. Prices are hard to reverse [46]. Copper - Shanghai copper declined. Affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's decision, prices oscillated. Although there are some positive factors, the market is cautious. Consider going long on the main contract [47]. Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply from mines is tight, and consumption is good. The price is expected to oscillate between the tight supply and the loose expectation [48]. Nickel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly. The cost support weakened, demand was weak, and the market was in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate [49]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Futures prices rose. Soybean crushing increased, and inventory accumulated. Brazilian soybeans had a bumper harvest, and the cost increased. Be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [50][51]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil was nearly flat. Exports increased, but demand from major markets was weak. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [52][53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed planting may decrease. Domestic imports increased, and inventory accumulated. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [54][55]. Cotton - Domestic cotton oscillated. Global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but oil prices may support cotton. The domestic industry is in the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [56][58]. Sugar - Domestic sugar oscillated at a low level. Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the conflict in the Middle - East may affect supply. Domestic inventory is low. Consider batch - buying [58][61]. Apples - Apple futures oscillated. The final output will be clear after bagging. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [62][63]. Live Pigs - The price declined slightly. Group - farm sales are increasing, and demand is weak after the holiday. Consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [63][65]. Eggs - The price rose. Egg production is expected to increase, and it is the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. Corn and Starch - Corn and starch futures rose slightly. Supply and demand are approaching balance, but there is pressure on the upside. Starch follows the corn market. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [67][68]. Logs - The main contract was flat. The number of incoming ships increased, and inventory changed. The market has no obvious driver. Beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [69][71].

【导读】中外机构：美联储年内料降息1～2次，关税不确定性增加美联储决策难度 威灵顿投资管理固定收益基金经理Brij Khurana称，鲍威尔表示到夏末才能更好地评估这一影响，这显 示他试图避免在7月降息。 关税不确定性增加美联储的决策难度 巴克莱分析师认为，由于美联储会后声明几乎没有提供关于未来政策路径的指导，市场参与者将重点放 在当天发布的《经济预测摘要》（SEP）以及美联储主席的新闻发布会上。 巴克莱表示，鲍威尔的表态略显鹰派，暗示没有必要急于降息。在新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔透 露称，关税的增加"可能会推高价格并拖累经济活动"，并预计到今年夏季价格压力将加剧，不过他强调 这是一个复杂且高度不确定的过程。 美东时间6月19日，美联储公开市场委员会（以下简称FOMC）在议息会议后宣布，维持联邦基金利率 区间在4.25%至4.50%之间。这是美联储连续第四次会议决定维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 美联储议息会议传递了哪些重要信号？其未来货币政策走向如何？哪些因素将影响美联储未来的货币政 策？资产应如何配置？就此，中外资机构展开热议。 年内可能降息1～2次 中银香港资产管理首席投资总监阮卓斌认为，根据点阵图最 ...

尽管多数官员仍预期2025年将降息两次或更多，但分歧加剧反映出在经济信号混杂的背景下，美联储维 持审慎立场。 鲍威尔记者会：数据导向，关税风险引关注 在会后记者会上，鲍威尔重申点阵图并非承诺，仅是"较弱的信号"，未来政策路径将完全依据经济数据 调整。 鲍威尔特别指出当前通胀面临上行风险，强调两大担忧： 美联储在周三如市场预期般维持利率不变。然而，政策制定者仍暗示2025年可能降息，不过美联储主席 鲍威尔提醒市场不要对这一预期过于乐观，指出关税与通胀相关的不确定性依然存在。 经济预测摘要 由于按兵不动已被市场充分定价，焦点转向了6月的《经济预测摘要》（SEP）。最新的点阵图显示， 美联储仍预计在2025年将进行两次各25个基点的降息。然而，内部观点依然分歧明显——部分官员甚至 预计明年不会降息，凸显了路径的不确定性。 6月点阵图| 来源：美联储 美国股市周三小幅收低，反映出投资者对美联储谨慎立场的复杂解读。尽管维持利率不变在预期之内， 但政策语气显示出更多耐心与不确定性，令股市略有承压。 与此同时，美元获得一定支撑，投资者解读为：即便未来可能降息，美联储在通胀与经济放缓之下可能 将维持"更久的高利率"。 ·与关 ...

2025 年 6 月 19 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 26 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘表现分化，30 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 120.900 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.01%报 109.140 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.01%报 106.280 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.01%报 102.544 元。 公开市场方面，央行公开市场开展 ...

2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: . | | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | | ו ← | | 燃料油: | | 8 | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: | . | | | 乙二醇: | . | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: ...

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow down significantly due to uncertainties related to trade policies, with GDP growth forecasted to drop from over 2% to 1.4% by 2025 [2][3] - Inflation expectations have risen, with consumer prices projected to increase by 3.0%, up from a previous estimate of 2.5% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates to a neutral level of around 3%, which is not considered contractionary for the economy [4] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Prospects - The Eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.1% to 0.8%, largely dependent on Germany's ability to relax fiscal controls [5][7] - Germany's €500 billion infrastructure investment plan could potentially be a game-changer, although its benefits may take time to materialize [5][7] - The Eurozone's inflation is expected to remain below the European Central Bank's target, allowing for potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [8] Group 3: UK Economic Situation - The UK economy is showing signs of stability and growth, with GDP growth forecasted at around 1% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.5% [9][10] - Recent strong growth and private consumption have shifted the risk outlook positively for the remainder of the year [9] - Inflation remains complex, with short-term fluctuations expected, but a gradual easing in price increases is anticipated due to a loosening labor market [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their market conditions [6][9][11] - For most commodities, the report analyzes supply - demand relationships, price trends, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as long - position, short - position, or waiting for opportunities Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices mostly rose in the previous trading day. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. The macro - economy shows a stable recovery, but the recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Equities - **Stock Index Futures**: Futures prices showed mixed trends in the previous trading day. The employment situation is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. It is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and considering going long on stock index futures [8][9][10] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver futures had different price changes in the previous trading day. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures [11][12] Base Metals - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper fluctuated within a range. The spot market atmosphere was average, and the downstream consumption was mediocre. The Sino - US London negotiation reached a framework agreement, which is beneficial to market sentiment. The US refined copper inventory increased, and the copper tariff has not been determined. The basis for copper price increase still exists, and a long - position operation is considered [48][49][51] - **Tin**: The price of Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream production data is good. The inventory is decreasing. The current contradiction lies in the game between the tight supply in reality and the loose expectation. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate [52] - **Nickel**: The price of Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support weakened, the downstream consumption was pessimistic, and the demand entered the off - season. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate [53] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Futures prices rebounded slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing with over - capacity. The market has entered the off - season, and the price is at a low level with limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities on rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly. The iron - water production decreased, and the supply increased. The price valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Futures prices rebounded significantly. The market is in an oversupply situation. The short - term price may stop falling, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities on rebounds [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is high. The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. Long - position investors need to be cautious. If the spot loss increases significantly, consider low - value call options [21][22] Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil rose significantly due to geopolitical risks. Fund managers increased their net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. The Sino - US negotiation is beneficial to market sentiment, but the situation in Iran is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24][26] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices rose following crude oil. The inventory in Fujairah increased, which is negative for fuel oil. The global trade demand is recovering, but geopolitical risks are high. It is recommended to wait and see [27][28][30] Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices rose. The supply pressure eased slightly, the demand improvement was limited, and the cost is expected to rebound. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [31][32] - **Natural Rubber**: Futures prices rose. The demand is worried about the future, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply is affected by rain. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider long - position opportunities [33][34] - **PVC**: Futures prices rose slightly. The supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [34] - **Urea**: Futures prices rose. It is supported by agricultural demand release and overseas supply tightening, and a long - position is recommended [35][36] - **PX**: Futures prices declined. The supply - demand expectation may weaken, and the price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil. Interval operation with caution is recommended [36] - **PTA**: Futures prices declined. The supply - demand structure weakened, and the inventory decreased. Interval operation and paying attention to reducing processing fees are recommended [37] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Futures prices rose. The supply - demand situation weakened, and the inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [38] - **Short - Fiber**: Futures prices rose. The downstream demand weakened, but the cost provides support. Consider long - position opportunities at low levels and pay attention to increasing processing fees [39] - **Bottle Chips**: Futures prices rose. The raw material price fluctuates strongly, and the device maintenance increases. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels and pay attention to increasing processing fees [40] - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices rose. The supply is stable, and the demand is average. The short - term market is expected to be weakly stable, and excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [41] - **Glass**: Futures prices rose slightly. The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. Excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [42] - **Caustic Soda**: Futures prices declined. The supply is relatively loose, and the regional difference is obvious. Long - position investors need to control positions [43][44] - **Pulp**: Futures prices rose slightly. The inventory is high, and the market is in the off - season. The real turnaround may occur in August [45][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures prices declined. The supply is high, and the demand has slowed down. The oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse [47] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal. For soybean oil, consider low - value call options at the bottom support level [54][55] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The export volume increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [56][58] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed prices jumped. The import volume of rapeseed oil increased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. Consider long - position opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [59] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices fluctuated, and overseas prices rose. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the oil price rise provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62][63] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices rebounded after a sharp decline, and overseas prices rose. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume will increase. It is recommended to go long in batches [64][65][66] - **Apples**: Futures prices fluctuated. The new - year's apple production is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [67] - **Hogs**: The spot price rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon - Boat Festival. Consider long - position opportunities for peak - season contracts [68][69] - **Eggs**: The spot price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase in June, and it is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71] - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn - starch futures prices declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the bottom support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for corn starch [72][73][74] - **Logs**: Futures prices rose. The supply and demand have no obvious drive, and the market transaction is light. Be vigilant against bullish sentiment disturbances [75]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock indices, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [10][11]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [12][13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [15][16]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and light - position participation is recommended [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [20][21]. - For ferroalloys, the overall price is under pressure, and long - position holders need to be cautious. Low - value call option opportunities can be considered [23]. - For crude oil, the price is expected to rise, and a long - position operation on the main contract is considered [25][26]. - For fuel oil, the price is expected to be strong, and a long - position operation on the main contract is considered [28]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30]. - For natural rubber, focus on long - position opportunities after the market stabilizes [33]. - For PVC, it is in a bottom - oscillating state [34]. - For urea, consider deploying long positions opportunistically [35][36]. - For PX, be cautious about chasing high prices, and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs and macro - policies [37]. - For PTA, consider range - bound operations and opportunities to narrow the processing margin [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, and pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [40]. - For staple fiber, participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [42]. - For bottle chips, participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs [43]. - For soda ash, the short - term market trend is weakly stable, and do not over - pursue long positions on short - term rebounds [44][45]. - For glass, the short - term may have bullish sentiment fermentation, but do not over - pursue long positions on short - term rebounds [46]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply and demand is relatively loose, and long - position holders need to control positions [47][49]. - For pulp, the market is in a stalemate in June, and a turnaround may occur in August [50][51]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale clearance of mine - end capacity [52]. - For copper, consider a long - position operation on the main contract of Shanghai copper [54][55]. - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate [56]. - For nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [57]. - For soybean meal and soybean oil, be on the sidelines for soybean meal, and pay attention to low - value call option opportunities for soybean oil [59]. - For cotton, take a wait - and - see approach [64]. - For sugar, consider batch - wise long - position operations [67][68]. - For apples, take a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to future production data [71][72]. - For live pigs, consider long - position arbitrage opportunities in peak - season contracts [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually closing out short positions in near - month contracts [78]. - For corn and corn starch, the bottom of corn has strong support, and temporarily observe corn starch [80][81]. - For logs, be wary of bullish sentiment disturbances as the 07 contract approaches the delivery month [82]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and there was a net investment of 67.5 billion yuan on a single day. The social financing scale and money supply data in the first five months of 2025 were released [5]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Guangzhou government proposed measures to boost consumption, and the real - estate policy was optimized [8][9][10]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures can be considered [10][11]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed up, and the silver main contract closed down. US consumer confidence and inflation expectation data were released [12]. - Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures can be considered [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coils) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices were reported, and the industry supply - demand situation was analyzed [14][15]. - The downward trend of the real - estate industry suppresses the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils. The current price valuation is low, and investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [15][16]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices and industry supply - demand situation were reported [17]. - The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. The price valuation is high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The industry supply - demand situation is that there is an oversupply, and the market sentiment is bearish [19][20]. - The short - term may stop falling, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [20][21]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts closed up. The supply - demand situation and inventory data were reported [22]. - The short - term demand may peak, and the supply is excessive. The overall price is under pressure, and long - position holders need to be cautious [22][23]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Multiple market data and news were reported, including CFTC data, Baker Hughes data, and the trading volume of call options [24]. - The negotiation between China and the US is over, and the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies. The price of crude oil is expected to rise, and a long - position operation on the main contract can be considered [25][26]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose significantly following crude oil. The market supply - demand situation and price changes were reported [27][28]. - The decrease in Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the recovery of global trade demand are favorable for fuel oil. A long - position operation on the main contract can be considered [28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract closed up. The supply - demand situation and cost factors were analyzed [29]. - Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract showed mixed performance. The supply - demand situation, inventory data, and import data were reported [31][32]. - Focus on long - position opportunities after the market stabilizes [33]. PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract closed up. The supply - demand situation, cost - profit situation, and inventory data were reported [34]. - It is in a bottom - oscillating state [34]. Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract closed up. The supply - demand situation and inventory data were reported [35]. - Consider deploying long positions opportunistically [35][36]. PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, cost factors, and price spreads were reported [37]. - Be cautious about chasing high prices, and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs and macro - policies [37]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, cost factors, and inventory data were reported [38][39]. - Consider range - bound operations and opportunities to narrow the processing margin [39]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, inventory data, and downstream demand were reported [40]. - It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [40]. Staple Fiber - Last trading day, the staple fiber 2507 main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, cost - benefit situation, and downstream demand were reported [41][42]. - Participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [42]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2509 main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, cost - benefit situation, and downstream demand were reported [43]. - Participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs [43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main 2509 contract closed down. The supply - demand situation, production, and inventory data were reported [44]. - The short - term market trend is weakly stable, and do not over - pursue long positions on short - term rebounds [44][45]. Glass - Last trading day, the main 2509 contract closed down. The supply - demand situation, price changes in different regions, and market sentiment were reported [46]. - The short - term may have bullish sentiment fermentation, but do not over - pursue long positions on short - term rebounds [46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main 2509 contract closed down. The production, inventory data, and supply - demand situation were reported [47][48][49]. - The overall supply and demand is relatively loose, and long - position holders need to control positions [47][49]. Pulp - Last trading day, the main 2507 contract closed down. The inventory data, market situation, and price changes of different pulp types were reported [50][51]. - The market is in a stalemate in June, and a turnaround may occur in August [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract closed down. The supply - demand situation, market sentiment, and price factors were reported [52]. - The price is difficult to reverse before large - scale clearance of mine - end capacity [52]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper fell significantly. The spot price, market situation, and price changes were reported [53]. - The Sino - US negotiation is favorable for the market sentiment, and a long - position operation on the main contract of Shanghai copper can be considered [54][55]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply - demand situation, mine - end situation, and price trend were reported [56]. - The price is expected to oscillate [56]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell slightly. The supply - demand situation, cost factors, and price trend were reported [57]. - The price is expected to oscillate [57]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - Last trading day, soybean meal closed down slightly, and soybean oil closed up. The spot price, supply - demand situation, inventory data, and consumption situation were reported [58][59]. - Be on the sidelines for soybean meal, and pay attention to low - value call option opportunities for soybean oil [59]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The global and domestic supply - demand situation, and the US cotton data were reported [62][63]. - Take a wait - and - see approach [64]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar showed a significant bottom - recovering trend. The domestic and foreign supply - demand situation, production data, and price factors were reported [65][67]. - Consider batch - wise long - position operations [67][68]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures showed a trend of rising and then falling. The production situation, inventory data, and price information were reported [69]. - Take a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to future production data [71][72]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply - demand situation, production data, and price trend were reported [73][74]. - Consider long - position arbitrage opportunities in peak - season contracts [74]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas fell. The supply - demand situation, production data, and price trend were reported [75][78]. - Consider gradually closing out short positions in near - month contracts [78]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, the corn main contract closed up, and the corn starch main contract closed down. The supply - demand situation, inventory data, and consumption situation were reported [79][80]. - The bottom of corn has strong support, and temporarily observe corn starch [80][81]. Logs - Last trading day, the main 2507 contract closed up. The arrival and inventory data of New Zealand logs were reported [82]. - Be wary of bullish sentiment disturbances as the 07 contract approaches the delivery month [82].

Core Viewpoint - The ability of the US dollar to benefit from safe-haven capital flows may be limited due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties and asset shifts away from US assets [1] Group 1: Impact of Geopolitical Events - Following the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the dollar's potential to gain from risk aversion is questioned [1] - The geopolitical tensions may not significantly enhance the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Concerns - The US dollar is seen as a primary victim of destructive trade policies implemented during the Trump administration, leading to broader asset transfers away from the US [1] - Ongoing tariff uncertainties are likely to hinder the dollar's ability to capitalize on risk-averse sentiment [1] Group 3: Alternative Safe-Haven Assets - In the current environment, assets like gold appear to be more attractive compared to the dollar for investors seeking safety [1]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are expected to be dominated by high fiscal deficits and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies as 2024 approaches, with bond yields continuing to play a pivotal role in market direction [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - President Trump is anticipated to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to increased market volatility and affect long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, faces criticism from Trump regarding interest rate policies, especially after the recent CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in May, lower than market expectations [1] - Market consensus suggests that any successor to Powell is likely to support interest rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Tariff Policies - Economic growth in the U.S. is projected to be slow in Q4, but could accelerate if tariff uncertainties are resolved, with Trump indicating a potential increase in tariffs on July 9 [3] - A preliminary agreement has been reached between the U.S. and China regarding a 55% tariff, which could stabilize market operations [3] Group 3: Fiscal Deficits and Bond Market - The House of Representatives has passed a tax reform bill expected to add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, with projections indicating that by 2026, the deficit will account for 7% of GDP [3] - The bond market may experience "phase-like yield spikes" due to fiscal pressures, but yields are expected to eventually stabilize as funds flow into higher-yielding assets [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to fluctuate between 3.75% and 4.625%, which will have broad implications for mortgage and other credit rates [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fed Strategy - The Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock, Rick Rieder, suggests that if economic conditions remain weak, there is still a possibility of rate cuts in September, while Bank of America economists predict that cuts may not occur until next year [2] - MUFG's macro strategy head, George Goncalves, believes the 10-year Treasury yield will hover between 4% and 4.5%, emphasizing that the Fed's hesitation to act may be misplaced [4]