【沥青】 1-7月国内炼厂沥青累计产量同比预计增长7%。年初以来54家样本炼厂出货量累计同比增长8%，华南地区预计在7月 上句"出梅"后需求有进一步提升空间。1-5月压路机销量同比大增,Q3是沥青需求恢复的关键观测窗口期。供需 预期双增下平衡表预估去库趋势延续日库存水平偏低。BU裂解价差向上弹性放大的基调未被破坏,叠加地缘冲突缓 和后油价重回承压背景下BU裂解有修复空间。 【LPG】 7月CP大幅下调，冲突降温后国际市场增供压力再度主导市场。美国两院库存加速上升,MB价格相对承压。炼厂开 工影响下，上周国产气外放量继续走高，国内供应宽松基调强化。原油带动和政治风险溢价快速消退,关注海外出 口回升节奏,盘面震荡偏弱。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 《八 国経期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月01日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Zhonghui Futures indicates that the short-term focus for copper prices should be within the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan, with a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing global copper supply tightness and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Changjiang Futures expects copper prices to operate in the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan in the short term, suggesting a cautious approach to holding long positions due to potential demand suppression from rising prices and ongoing tariff uncertainties [1][2] - Guantong Futures anticipates a slow upward trend in copper prices amidst a volatile market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and uncertain tariff policies, while also considering the tight supply of copper and weak U.S. economic data [2] Group 2 - The recent performance of copper futures shows a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 80,760.00 yuan and closing at 80,640.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.09% increase [1] - The macroeconomic sentiment appears to be improving, with the U.S. copper premium over London copper expanding, although concerns about seasonal demand and tariff uncertainties may continue to exert pressure on prices [1][2] - The upcoming expiration of a 90-day tariff exemption on July 9 is expected to reignite tariff negotiations, adding to the uncertainty in the copper market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is considering tariff exemptions for products that are difficult to grow domestically, such as cocoa and coffee, in response to rising costs attributed to tariffs [1] Group 1: Tariff Exemptions - The Trump administration may implement tariff exemptions for certain goods that cannot be produced in the U.S. [1] - Current tariffs have led to criticism from Democrats, who argue that these tariffs increase costs for consumers [1] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized the importance of understanding and developing a comprehensive strategy to support products that cannot be produced domestically [1] - The goal is to keep grocery prices low in the U.S., ensure inflation is reduced as promised, and promote American products globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is willing to accept a trade agreement with the United States that includes a 10% universal tariff on many EU exports, while seeking lower tariffs for key industries such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft [1] Group 1 - The EU is pushing for the U.S. to commit to lower tariffs on critical sectors [1] - The EU aims to negotiate quotas and exemptions to reduce the U.S. tariffs of 25% on automobiles and auto parts, as well as 50% on steel and aluminum [1] - EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic will lead a delegation to Washington this week to advance negotiations [1] Group 2 - The European Commission seeks to address existing sector tariffs imposed by the U.S. and any future tariffs planned [1]

欧元兑美元涨0.4%，暂报1.1765。据媒体报道，欧盟愿意接受与美国达成的一项贸易协议，该协议包括对其许多出口产品征收10%的普遍关税， 但希望美国承诺降低关键行业的关税。欧盟正在敦促美国给予配额和豁免，以有效降低华盛顿对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝征收的关税，并希 望解决非关税壁垒和行业关税问题。 欧盟必须在7月9日之前与美国达成贸易协议，并正在准备应对措施，包括对价值210亿美元和950亿美元的美国商品征收关税，以防谈判结果不令 人满意。 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - June manufacturing PMI improved slightly from 49.5% in May to 49.7%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of 49.6% but still below seasonal levels[1] - Production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while new orders index increased from 49.8% to 50.2%[3] - New export orders index saw a minor increase from 47.5% to 47.7%, remaining below seasonal averages[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, with the construction sector showing significant recovery[6] - Service sector index slightly declined to 50.1%, indicating mixed performance across industries[6] Price Trends and Economic Outlook - Both purchasing prices and factory prices showed signs of recovery, with raw material prices index rising by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4%[7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies post July 9 may disrupt future export and production activities, necessitating stronger monetary and fiscal policies[2] Employment and Business Expectations - Employment index in manufacturing fell by 0.2 percentage points to 47.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in labor market stability[3] - Business activity expectations index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52%, reflecting cautious outlook among manufacturers[3]

韩国产业通商资源部：韩国贸易主管强调在与美国同行会谈中关税豁免的重要性。 ...

两国将设定钢铝关税的豁免配额。 美国钢铁公司（X）美股盘后涨0.018%，纽柯钢铁（NUE）和Steel Dynamics Inc盘后持平。 两国将谈判优惠的英国医药关税待遇。 文本显示，美国与英国的协议提及钢铁和铝关税豁免问题。 ...

Group 1 - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akizawa Ryozo, is negotiating with the U.S. regarding tariffs, focusing on a package plan targeting China's rare earth regulations and U.S. liquefied natural gas exports [1][3] - Japan believes it has advantages in rare earth processing, recycling, and reduced usage, proposing to assist the U.S. with technology in these areas, as well as in graphite and gallium [3] - Japan plans to increase imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and purchase billions of dollars in semiconductors from U.S. companies, while also offering support for U.S. chip manufacturing [3] Group 2 - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. is approximately $60 billion annually, making it difficult for Japan to solely reduce this surplus to satisfy U.S. demands [5] - Japan's strategy involves sacrificing third-party interests, particularly China, to maintain its own trade benefits, reflecting a form of diplomatic opportunism [5] - The U.S. has conflicting views among its officials regarding trade negotiations, complicating Japan's efforts to secure favorable terms [5][7] Group 3 - The chaotic negotiation environment, including disputes among U.S. officials, significantly reduces the likelihood of Japan reaching an agreement before the G7 summit [7] - Japan's attempts to appease the U.S. at the expense of its trade relations with China are viewed as a poor strategy, with China firmly opposing such actions [7]

澳洲贸易部长称，在总理Albanese可能与美国总统举行会晤之前，澳洲将继续施压 美国取消加征的关税 政策。 据《澳洲金融评论报》报道，两国领导人可能会在加拿大举行的G7峰会期间会面， 届时特朗普实施的 全球经济措施将是讨论的重点。 在澳洲试图协商取消关税之际，贸易部长Don Farrell对达成协议持有乐观态度。 他在周日表示："我不会放弃希望美国会取消这些关税的努力，每次有机会，我都 会继续向美国提出这 个主张。美国没有理由对澳洲征收关税……我们希望看到所有关 税被取消，而不仅仅是部分。" （图片来源：AFR） 特朗普近日批准将钢铁和铝出口关税从25%提升至50%，另外对澳洲所有其他对美出 口商品征收了10% 的关税。 但反对党财政发言人James Paterson认为，总理与美国总统的会晤本应更早进行。 他指出，英国获得的钢铁和铝关税豁免表明澳洲也有可能获取类似结果。 "我们当时没有进行报复，而是一点点地取消了所有关税。我希望对美国也能这样 做，只有通过与美国 盟友的公开、坦诚的讨论，我们才能做到这一点。" Paterson表示，联盟党可能支持建立关键矿产储备，用于关税谈判中的筹码。 "这 是澳洲可以采 ...