日本股市正迎来一轮令人瞩目的上涨行情。 10月6日，日经225指数大幅上涨4.8%，首次突破47000点整数关口。 10月9日，该指数收盘上涨845.45点，涨幅1.77%，报收于48580.44点。 这轮涨势的背后是日本政治变革带来的政策预期转变。10月4日，日本执政党自由民主党举行总裁选举，高市早苗意外胜出，成为自民党新任总裁。 鉴于自民党仍是日本国会最大政党，高市早苗大概率将在10月15日的首相指名选举中成为日本首位女性首相。 "高市行情" 眼下，"高市行情"已成为日本金融市场的新关键词。 高市早苗被视为"安倍经济学"的坚定继承者，其政策主张带有明显的"希望货币宽松、日元贬值、财政扩张"偏好。 她在竞选期间明确提出反对加息，主张增加政府支出并实施减税政策，这与"安倍经济学"的政策框架相似。 宽松货币政策与积极财政政策的双重预期，创造了市场对日本经济前景的乐观情绪，吸引了大量资金涌入股市。随着高市早苗政策蓝图逐渐清晰，日 本各大券商策略师纷纷上调日经225指数年底目标位。 野村证券将日经225指数的年底目标位从44500点上调至49000点，上调了至少10%。 该行策略师在报告中指出，高市早苗上台后，刺激 ...

据新华社报道，日本前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗在10月4日举行的日本自民党总裁选举中胜出， 由此成为自民党首位女总裁。 高市早苗有望成为日本第一位女首相，但是她所面临的挑战并不小。对内，首当其冲的是日本经济，高 通胀、薪金停滞，以及疲弱的增长，居高不下的政府债务，产业发展迟缓（如AI）的掣肘等；对外部 而言，则是如何处理国际合作关系以及世界正观察着其是否会以右翼立场来处理国际关系。同时，如何 重新联结自民党，并如何同在野党结盟等问题，均需破题。 在10月4日召开的记者会上，日本自民党新任总裁高市早苗提出了积极财政政策方向，以及尽早降低汽 油税，与央行开展紧密对话。此外，高市还提出将支援亏损企业为员工加薪，探讨增加地方政府用于应 对物价上涨的补贴资金。 特约评论员 熊夏柠 高市早苗也提出会支持企业涨薪，主要做法是减免企业的税，拟为那些因亏损的中小企业提供相关税收 减免，通过"加薪促进税制"减免加薪企业法人税以鼓励企业加薪。不过，也有评论认为，一些企业可能 经营不善而亏损严重，即使有减免，也杯水车薪。 再来看看市场关心的政府债务，日本政府债务余额与GDP之比已经高达240%。而高市早苗的积极财政 主张仍然提出增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The election of Takashi Sanae as the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan brings attention to her potential as the first female Prime Minister, but she faces significant economic challenges, including high inflation, stagnant wages, and weak growth [2][4]. Economic Challenges - Japan is currently grappling with high inflation rates exceeding 2%, stagnant wage growth, and a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 240% [3][4]. - The previous economic policies under Abenomics, which aimed to stimulate growth through inflation, may not be applicable in the current economic environment [3][4]. Policy Proposals - Takashi Sanae has proposed active fiscal policies, including reducing gasoline taxes and supporting wage increases for employees in struggling companies through tax incentives [2][4]. - She advocates for a "salary promotion tax system" to encourage companies to raise wages by offering corporate tax reductions [4]. Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The proposal to issue deficit bonds raises concerns about increasing the national debt, which is already substantial [4]. - The concept of measuring fiscal health through "net debt balance" has been introduced, which may present a more favorable view of Japan's financial situation, but does not address the underlying fiscal challenges [4]. Geopolitical Stance - Takashi Sanae's leadership is expected to emphasize Japan's national interests and strengthen cooperation with the US and South Korea, reflecting traditional geopolitical values [5][6]. - Concerns exist regarding her right-wing stance and its potential implications for international relations, although historical examples suggest that leaders may moderate their positions once in power [5][6]. Public Perception and Image - The election of a female leader is seen as a move to refresh the image of the LDP and attract new supporters, with Takashi Sanae's public persona contributing to this narrative [6].

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to significant fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy, resulting in a market phenomenon referred to as "Takaichi trading" [1][4]. Economic Policy Implications - Takaichi is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics," advocating for loose monetary policy, active fiscal spending, and structural reforms [5]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate has crossed the psychologically significant level of 150, which may prompt the Japanese government to intervene in the foreign exchange market due to rising import costs [5][6]. Market Reactions - Following Takaichi's victory, the Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high, and the USD/JPY exchange rate rose above 150 [1][4]. - The yen has depreciated since Takaichi's election, reducing its year-to-date appreciation to 2.77% [4]. Potential U.S. Relations Impact - Concerns arise that the yen's depreciation could reignite criticism from former President Trump regarding Japan's trade practices, as he has previously accused Japan of manipulating its currency [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that Takaichi may act cautiously in economic policy to maintain good relations with the U.S. [6]. Inflation Concerns - Input inflation due to a weaker yen could become a political issue for the ruling party, as it may increase the cost of living for Japanese households [6][7]. - The current inflation rate in Japan has exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2% for three consecutive years, with the latest figure reaching 2.7% in August [7]. Future Monetary Policy Expectations - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December and again in mid-2026, despite Takaichi's opposition to rate hikes [7]. - A stronger yen may be necessary to curb inflation and improve public purchasing power, which is a significant concern for the ruling party [7].

对于日本官员而言，150的重要关口在心理和政治上都十分敏感。此前，日本官员曾警告或干预货币市 场，因为日元跌破该点位会增加进口成本，加剧家庭的生活成本危机。 日元疲软也再次唤起了特朗普最喜欢的老调重弹：日本以牺牲美国为代价，从低估的货币中获益。 如今，随着安倍的"门徒"——高市早苗即将执掌全球第四大经济体，同样的担忧可能再次浮出水面。 高市早苗被普遍认为是"安倍经济学"的拥护者，该经济策略主张宽松货币政策、财政支出和结构性改 革。在去年执政的自民党总裁选举中，她批评了日本央行加息并增强日元的计划。 市场对此做出了反应，出现了所谓的"高市交易"，将日经225指数推向历史新高，美元兑日元汇率升破 150大关。 多年来，美国总统特朗普一直指责日本从事"不公平贸易行为"，这一批评可以追溯到他还是房地产大亨 的时候。 上周五，特朗普再次点名日本，声称东京通过削弱日元以获取不公平的贸易优势。"我曾打电话给日本 领导人，告诉他们不能继续贬值货币，"他说。 然而，分析师表示，高市早苗可能会在经济政策上谨慎行事，以避免与华盛顿关系紧张。 据报道，时任日本首相石破茂在日本国会表示，日本并未推行所谓的"货币贬值政策"，包括已故的安 ...

进一步，从中长期来看，贵金属价格继续上涨的主要驱动力在于宏观层面对美国经济"滞胀"风险的担 忧，当前美联储降息预期推动下，美债长端仍延续高位，期限溢价放大的背后是未来实质利率水平走弱 的担忧，并将在未来一段时期继续推升黄金价格的上涨。 不过，从当下投资操作来看，当前零售端黄金市场价格无论是在投资品还是珠宝首饰方面，价格已经远 超出普通居民的支付能力，建议谨慎对待。 （作者：曹慧，卓创资讯分析师） 编辑：吴郑思 新华财经北京10月9日电 10月以来，国际黄金市场价格持续走强并成功突破4000美元关口，再创历史新 高。宽松预期和避险需求成为短期金价大涨的主要驱动。 截至10月8日收盘，国际现货黄金价格4041.65美元／盎司，盘中创历史新高至4059.31美元，连续五个交 易日涨幅超4.7%；纽约期金价格也同步走强，并于8日创历史新高至4081美元／盎司。年初至今，黄金 价格水平较年初涨幅近54%，成为年内表现最好的大类资产。 具体分析来看，眼下的黄金价格走强一方面反映了市场对日本经济前景及货币政策预期的强化，由于日 本自民党新任总裁高市早苗的胜选，令以量化+质化宽松为代表的"安倍经济学"将再度引领日本经济政 策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Global Macro Situation**: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan may have its first female prime - minister. Domestically, the economy continues to stabilize, with the manufacturing PMI rising and the non - manufacturing PMI falling slightly. In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity, while overseas focus is on the Fed's potential October rate cut and the BOJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but at a slower pace, and US stocks face risks while oscillating upwards. In asset allocation, the order of preference in the fourth quarter is equities > commodities > bonds [8]. - **Market Outlook for Different Sectors**: Most sectors are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, including financial, precious metals, shipping, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agriculture sectors [9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price Movements - **Financial Instruments**: Stock index futures, such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures, have shown varying degrees of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly increases. Treasury futures have generally been weak, with some showing small increases and others decreases [3]. - **Industry Indices**: Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals have positive price increases, while sectors such as food and beverage, and some technology - related industries have seen declines [4]. - **Overseas Commodities**: Energy commodities like NYMEX WTI crude and ICE Brent crude have declined, while precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have increased. Non - ferrous metals and agricultural products also show different price trends [4]. - **Domestic Commodities**: Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products all have their own price movement characteristics, with some rising and some falling [5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: The US government shutdown may negatively impact the US economy. The potential election of Japan's first female prime - minister, who advocates "Abenomics" and has a tough stance on China, may affect Sino - Japanese relations and market risk appetite [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economy continues to stabilize, with the manufacturing PMI rising and the non - manufacturing PMI falling slightly. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active, but movie box - office consumption was weak [8]. 3.3 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: The stock market has a volume - shrinking rebound, and the bond market remains weak. Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while stock index options and treasury futures are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - **Shipping Sector**: Attention is paid to the rate of freight price decline. The container shipping to Europe line and steel - related products are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: A negative feedback loop is difficult to form, and the sector is expected to remain volatile before the holiday [9]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Supply disruptions continue to drive price movements, and most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Energy Chemical Sector**: Crude oil continues to be volatile, and the chemical sector is mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [11]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard, and most agricultural products are expected to be volatile [11].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is betting on significant fiscal stimulus measures from Japan's new ruling party leader, Sanae Takaichi, which is expected to drive the Nikkei 225 index to historic highs, potentially reaching 50,000 points [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The "Takaichi Trade" has led to a rapid increase in the Japanese stock market, depreciation of the yen, and a resurgence of yen carry trades, reflecting expectations of stronger fiscal stimulus and mild monetary policy [2][3]. - Following Takaichi's election, the Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.8%, with the broader Topix index rising by 3.1% [4]. Group 2: Institutional Predictions - Nomura Securities raised its year-end forecast for the Nikkei 225 from 44,500 to 49,000 points, while Daiwa Securities also increased its forecast to 49,000 points, indicating a high probability of reaching 50,000 points within the year [5][7]. - Other institutions, including Julius Baer and SMBC Nikko Securities, have similarly adjusted their forecasts upward, with Julius Baer predicting a rise to 50,000 points [4][6][7]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Takaichi is expected to continue the "Abenomics" framework, which could create an environment of economic growth outpacing interest rates, benefiting the stock market and attracting foreign investment [6]. - The anticipated policies under Takaichi, including tax cuts and cash subsidies, are likely to favor sectors such as technology, defense, and advanced manufacturing, positioning them as major beneficiaries in the stock market [3][4].

Market Performance - The U.S. stock indices experienced multiple milestones during the National Day holiday, with investors downplaying concerns over the government shutdown and focusing on corporate dynamics, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, which helped the Nasdaq challenge 23,000 points [2] - The S&P 500 companies are expected to see a year-on-year EPS growth of 7.9% for Q3, with a projected growth of 9.3% for the entire year of 2025 [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan briefly surpassed 48,000 points, influenced by the new Liberal Democratic Party president's economic policies, which are reminiscent of "Abenomics" [2] European Market Insights - The UK FTSE 100 index broke through the 9,500-point mark, reaching a historical high, driven by rising metal prices and strong performance in the mining sector [3] - The DAX 30 index in Germany surpassed its July high, although investor sentiment was pressured by weak economic data, with August industrial output dropping 4.3% month-on-month, significantly worse than the 1% expected decline [3] - The French CAC 40 index returned to the 8,000-point level, but market sentiment remained cautious due to escalating political crises, including pressure on President Macron and instability in the parliament [3] Precious Metals and Commodities - International gold futures prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, with gold prices up 53% year-to-date, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Silver prices reached $48 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 70%, supported by strong physical demand from the solar and electronics sectors [5] - Platinum prices exceeded $1,600 per ounce, a 12-year record, due to supply constraints and strong demand from hybrid vehicles [6] Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices are experiencing fluctuations at four-month lows, with OPEC+ announcing a modest increase in production starting in November, amid concerns of potential oversupply [6] Key Events and Outlook - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic indicators, leading investors to rely on unofficial data to gauge the timing and extent of potential Fed rate cuts [7] - The political turmoil in France and Japan is being closely monitored for its impact on market stability, with significant fluctuations in bond yields and currency values observed in response to political developments [8]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanna Takichi as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to lead to her becoming the new Prime Minister of Japan, with a strong inclination towards "Abenomics," favoring monetary easing, yen depreciation, and fiscal expansion [3][4]. Election Results - On October 4, the LDP held a presidential election where Takichi emerged victorious after two rounds of voting, contrary to media predictions that favored her opponent, Shinzo Koizumi [4][5]. - In the first round, Takichi received 119 votes from party members, while Koizumi received 84 votes, leading to a second round where Takichi secured 149 votes from national assembly members compared to Koizumi's 145 [15]. Reasons for Takichi's Victory - Takichi's popularity among LDP members was a significant factor, as she garnered substantial support in both the party member and local party branch votes [5]. - Koizumi's lack of clear policy proposals and cautious election strategy contributed to his defeat, as he failed to resonate with the party's broader membership [5]. Economic and Financial Policy Proposals - Takichi is seen as a staunch supporter of Abenomics, advocating for monetary easing and fiscal expansion [3][7]. - Her proposed tax policies include raising the income threshold for tax exemptions, implementing cash subsidies for low-income families, and abolishing temporary gasoline tax rates, reflecting a strategy for cross-party collaboration [8]. - Takichi has expressed a preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy, indicating that the Bank of Japan should decide on specific monetary tools while emphasizing the negative impacts of rapid interest rate hikes on investment and housing [9]. Currency and Fiscal Policy - Takichi appears to favor a weaker yen, arguing that yen depreciation benefits export industries and contributes positively to Japan's economic strength [10]. - She supports fiscal expansion and deficit financing, focusing on strategic investments to stimulate economic growth and increase tax revenues, while maintaining that as long as nominal growth exceeds government bond interest rates, debt-to-GDP ratios can remain stable [11]. Short-term Market Reactions - The unexpected nature of Takichi's election is likely to lead to significant price fluctuations in Japanese assets, with expectations of yen depreciation, rising stock prices, and a steepening yield curve for Japanese bonds [14]. - Historical trends from previous elections suggest that markets may react similarly, with potential increases in the Nikkei index and further depreciation of the yen against the dollar [14].