Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's overall gross margin improved by 9.16 percentage points compared to the same period last year, driven by product structure optimization, gold price benefits, and changes in channel structure [4] - Revenue from e-commerce increased significantly in Q3, but gross profit declined due to a shift to an agency model, although channel expenses decreased by 16.55% year-on-year [5] - The company aims for a net profit growth target of 5%-15% for the year, with confidence in continued growth from self-operated and e-commerce channels [8] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company has established a strategic partnership with Wuyou Media to enhance brand value through innovative marketing and content creation [7] - The gold leasing business is managed with a risk strategy to prevent inventory impairment while avoiding excessive leasing that could lead to losses [3] - The company is focusing on improving single-store efficiency and conducting structural adjustments in franchise operations to enhance overall performance [8] Group 3: Market Trends - The embedded product category has stabilized, with growth driven by lightweight and fashionable designs, including gold embedded products [6] - The company is seeing a positive trend in sales performance at the co-branded stores with the National Treasure project, with expectations for some stores to achieve monthly sales exceeding 10 million [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better-than-expected performance. In the short term, due to increased external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short positions after the futures price reaches the resistance level. In the medium to long term, demand in the north will gradually end as the temperature drops, while in the south, the rush - repair demand may boost overall consumption after the rainfall decreases. The raw material shortage and high cracking spread situation persist, and the spot basis continues to weaken, indicating a gradual decline in demand [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.38% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.08% [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 call option at 30 - 40 yuan with a 20% ratio to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 put option at 25 - 35 yuan with a 20% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3. Core Contradictions - Influenced by news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen. Although the short - term impact on Venezuelan crude oil shipments is not significant, the market is worried about asphalt raw material supply. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The cracking spread remained high due to raw material shortages. Crude oil prices rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand [3]. 4. Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela; Shandong's Shengxing and Lanqiao refineries plan to shut down for asphalt production; Sino - US tariff tensions may ease; The US canceled the "Trump - Putin meeting", imposed more sanctions on Russia, and the US is purchasing strategic petroleum reserves [5][6]. Bearish Factors - OPEC continues to increase production [6]. 5. Price and Basis Data - On October 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day and 30 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week. The basis and cracking spread data also showed corresponding changes [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the energy chemical products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, and urea. Some products are in a "Bearish Consolidation" or "Bearish Rebound" state, such as L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][2][6] Core Views - The overall energy chemical market is under pressure, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost - side fluctuations, and geopolitical influences. Most products are expected to face downward pressure in the medium - to - long term, but short - term rebounds may occur due to cost fluctuations and market sentiment [1][2][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: OPEC+ may continue to increase production, leading to an oversupply of crude oil. The market has digested the risk of sanctions against Russia, and the driving force of oil prices has shifted to supply. The consumption off - season has begun, and the pressure of oversupply is gradually increasing. There are also geopolitical and macro - economic factors at play [1][9] - Strategy: Hold short positions, buy call options to control risks, and lightly add short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 465] [1][11] LPG - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The risk of US sanctions against Russia has been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical operating rate has increased, with relatively strong demand on the demand side. The port inventory has decreased [1][15] - Strategy: Buy put options and wait for the release of risks. Lightly try short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [1][16] L - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches is neutral. The import volume in October is large, and there is an expectation of further increase. The supply will continue to be in a loose pattern. The demand peak season has arrived, but the restocking motivation is insufficient. The oil price may decline in the medium term, and the cost support is insufficient [1][20] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of L [6900 - 7100] [20] PP - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: The upstream device maintenance intensity has increased, but the demand is facing high destocking pressure at the end of the "Silver October". The oil price may continue to fall in the medium term, and the cost support of oil - based production is insufficient [1][25] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Low - valuation support, but single - product losses are increasing, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is continuously compressed. The export volume in September maintained a high growth rate, and there is an expectation of rush - exporting during the Indian policy window period. New production capacity has been basically released this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the upstream marginal devices can reduce production beyond expectations to alleviate the oversupply contradiction [1][29] - Strategy: The market maintains a high contango structure. The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Short - term lightly participate in rebounds. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The supply side has seen a continuous reduction in the operating load of domestic and foreign devices. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The oil price has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the rebound height may be limited [1][31] - Strategy: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to arrange short positions at high prices, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding downstream processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of PX [6530 - 6630] [31][32] PTA - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: A new device is about to be put into production, but the processing fee is low, and the device maintenance intensity is expected to increase. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The internal upward driving force is limited in the short term, and it follows the oil price fluctuations [2][34] - Strategy: Take profits on previous long positions. Look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding TA processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of TA [4550 - 4630] [2][35] Ethylene Glycol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. New devices are being put into production, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The terminal consumption has improved in the short term, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward driving force [2][37] - Strategy: Close short - term long positions and look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [4050 - 4120] [2][38] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the port basis is still weak. The supply side has a certain pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of seasonal production reduction of gas - based methanol in the southwest region and the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions". The demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak and stable [2][41] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously (take profits in batches at low prices), look for opportunities to arrange long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and pay attention to MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the range of MA [2210 - 2260] [2][43] Urea - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Main Logic: The supply is relatively loose, and the daily production is expected to return to a high level. The domestic agricultural demand has slightly improved, and the export is still good. The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the cost support still exists. However, the winter agricultural demand and export may have limited positive effects [3][45] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously, and lightly try long positions in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of UR [1625 - 1650] [3][47] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: Geopolitical sanctions risks have been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The demand is expected to increase with the cooling of the weather, but the supply is sufficient [6] - Strategy: No specific strategy is mentioned in the text Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: It follows the cost - side oil price correction. The supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose, and the valuation is relatively high [6] - Strategy: Buy put options [6] Glass - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: After the festival, the enterprise inventory has increased counter - seasonally for three consecutive weeks, and the market has turned into a contango structure. The domestic demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure [6] - Strategy: In the short term, rely on the 5 - day moving average for short - term long positions, and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [6] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: It rebounds following the black building materials sector. The factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is expected to increase [6] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Continue to hold long positions in the alkali - glass spread [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - D.R. Horton reported consolidated pre-tax income of $1.2 billion on revenues of $9.7 billion for Q4 2025, with a pre-tax profit margin of 12.4% [7] - For the full year, consolidated pre-tax income was $4.7 billion, with a pre-tax profit margin of 13.8% [7] - Net income for Q4 was $905.3 million, or $3.04 per diluted share, on consolidated revenues of $9.7 billion [9] - The average closing sales price for Q4 was $365,600, down 1% sequentially and down 3% year over year [9] - The company generated $3.4 billion of cash from operations in fiscal 2025, representing 10% of total revenues [8][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Home sales revenues for Q4 were $8.5 billion on 23,368 homes closed [9] - Net sales orders in Q4 increased 5% year over year to 20,078 homes, with order value increasing 3% to $7.3 billion [10] - The average price of net sales orders in Q4 was $364,900, flat sequentially and down 3% from the prior year [10] - Rental operations generated $81 million of pre-tax income on $805 million of revenues in Q4 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average number of active selling communities was up 1% sequentially and up 13% from the prior year [10] - The company’s home building lot position at year-end consisted of approximately 592,000 lots, with 25% owned and 75% controlled through purchase contracts [15] - In the Southeast region, particularly Florida, some markets like Jacksonville and Southwest Florida faced excess inventory issues [75] Company Strategy and Development Direction - D.R. Horton remains focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver compelling returns to shareholders [8] - The company plans to tailor product offerings and sales incentives based on demand in each market to maximize returns [8] - The company expects to generate consolidated revenues of approximately $33.5 to $35 billion for fiscal 2026, with homes closed in the range of 86,000 to 88,000 [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that new home demand remains impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment [6] - The company anticipates that incentive levels will remain elevated in fiscal 2026, depending on demand strength during the spring selling season [12] - Management expressed a positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term, despite current volatility and uncertainty in the economy [23] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 30.7 million shares for $4.3 billion in fiscal 2025, reducing the outstanding share count by 9% [20] - D.R. Horton’s book value per share increased by 5% year over year to $82.15 [20] - The company’s consolidated leverage at fiscal year-end was 19.8%, with plans to maintain leverage around 20% over the long term [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How to think about the walk from the 20% gross margin in Q4 to the 20 to 20.5% in Q1? - Management indicated that the unusual impact from litigation in Q4 is not expected to persist into Q1, and the baseline would be a more normal impact from warranty and litigation going forward [27] Question: How quickly can the company ramp up starts to meet demand? - Management acknowledged that starts were intentionally lower to align inventory and expressed confidence in their ability to respond to market demand as it increases [28] Question: What is the outlook for rental operations and its impact on consolidated operating margin? - Management expects rental operations to be softer in Q1, impacting consolidated operating margin due to lower closings volume on the homebuilding side [32] Question: Can you provide insight into the Southeast market performance? - Management noted that while some areas in Florida are struggling with inventory balance, overall demand remains choppy across various markets [65] Question: What are the expectations for lot costs and stick and brick costs? - Management indicated that lot costs are expected to remain sticky, but they anticipate opportunities to renegotiate stick and brick costs down as the year progresses [56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) [4] Core Views - Anta's main brand retail sales showed low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, while FILA's retail sales also grew at a low single-digit rate. Other brands experienced a significant retail sales increase of 45%-50% [2][3] - The retail discount for Anta remained stable, with offline discounts at 71% and online discounts around 50%. FILA's offline discount was 74% and online discount was 58% [2] - The company is expected to face challenges due to a weak external consumption environment and intensified industry competition, but FILA and outdoor brands continue to perform strongly [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 27, 2025, Anta's closing price was HKD 87.80, with a year-to-date high of HKD 106.30 and a low of HKD 73.55. The circulating market value was HKD 246.473 billion [1] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are expected to be HKD 4.85, HKD 5.42, and HKD 6.19 respectively. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are 16.5, 14.8, and 12.9 [4][6] - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at HKD 77.434 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%. Net profit for 2025 is projected to be HKD 13.622 billion, reflecting a decline of 12.7% year-on-year [6][7] Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail sales growth was below internal expectations, while FILA's retail sales remained healthy. The outdoor brands, including Descente and KOLON Sports, saw retail sales growth of 45%-50% [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected. High imports are likely in November, making it difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, and inventory depletion is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, they do not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6]. - **PP**: The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream enterprises are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production schedule is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average currently. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 21 - 27, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2265 to 2232, a decrease of 33. Other regional prices also showed certain fluctuations [1]. - **Profit and Basis**: The import profit remained at around 320 - 326, and the main contract basis and MTO profit also changed [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From October 21 - 27, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price decreased from 780 to 765 on October 24, and then no data was provided. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. showed an upward trend, with the main contract futures price increasing by 55 [6]. - **Inventory and Other Information**: The two - oil inventory decreased, and the production of domestic linear products decreased recently [6]. PP - **Price Data**: From October 21 - 27, 2025, the prices of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene remained unchanged. The prices of East China PP, North China PP, etc. fluctuated, and the main contract futures price increased by 37 [6]. - **Inventory and Other Information**: Upstream and mid - stream enterprises are reducing inventory, and the PDH profit is around - 400 [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 21 - 27, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2500 on October 24 - 27, and the price of Shandong caustic soda decreased from 822 to 807. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4680 [6]. - **Profit and Other Information**: The export profit and comprehensive profit showed certain fluctuations, and the basis remained at - 90 [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Steel prices have strengthened, with a rebound of 100 yuan per ton from the low. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has recovered well this week, approaching last year's level, but the off - balance - sheet demand is lower year - on - year. Plate inventories are high, and steel mill profits are falling, which will suppress production. The 1 - month contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to recover at previous highs. Hold long positions and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils). The coking coal long - hot - rolled coil short arbitrage has widened, and the arbitrage position can be held [1]. Summaries by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3200 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil rose from 3265 to 3312 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices have changed, with steel billet rising by 30 to 2960 yuan. Profits of various steel products in different regions have declined. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils dropped from - 5 to - 12 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a 1.0% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a - 1.7% decline. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 3.2 to 12.3, a 35.5% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a 2.0% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, iron ore futures stabilized and rebounded. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand side has weakening demand for restocking due to falling steel mill profits and decreasing pig iron output. The downstream demand for steel is gradually recovering but lower than expected. After the previous callback, the negative factors have been fully digested. Unilaterally, go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with a reference range of 770 - 830. Recommend the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. Summaries by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different varieties decreased slightly. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.5 to 23.0, a 12.2% increase [3]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port increased. For example, the price of PB powder rose from 778 to 792 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a - 19.5% decline, and the global shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a 1.6% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly outputs also decreased [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 54.7 to 14423.59, a 0.4% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a 1.1% increase [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, coke and coking coal futures showed an upward trend. For coke, the second - round price increase proposed by mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and there is still room for further increase. The supply of coking coal has decreased, and the price has risen, resulting in increased costs for coke production and reduced coke production. Steel mill demand is weak, and inventories are in a state of mixed changes. For coking coal, the spot price is rising, supply is tight due to production cuts, and there is restocking demand after de - stocking. Speculatively, go long on the 2601 contract of coke in the range of 1650 - 1850 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract in the range of 1150 - 1350 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke in different regions and contracts increased. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1561 to 1612 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coke rose from 1758 to 1780 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts also increased. For example, the price of Mongolia 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1318 to 1329 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal rose from 1249 to 1264 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Coke production decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants dropping from 65.3 to 64.6 tons. Coking coal production also decreased, with the raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines dropping from 854 to 848 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased from 241.0 to 239.9 tons, indicating weakening demand for coke [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Coke inventory remained stable overall, with coking plants and steel mills de - stocking and ports increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory showed mixed changes, with coal mines and steel mills de - stocking and coking plants and ports increasing inventory [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a full-year guidance for Topsports International Holdings, targeting a net profit amount roughly flat year-on-year alongside an improvement in net profit margin [4][10]. Core Insights - In 1H FY2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of RMB 12.30 billion, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to owners at RMB 790 million, down 9.7% YoY [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for 1H FY2025 was 41.0%, slightly contracting by 0.1 percentage point YoY but expanding by 2.5 percentage points compared to 2H FY2024, exceeding market expectations due to brand partner subsidies [2][8]. - The company reported a significant decline in operating cash flow, down 48.2% YoY to RMB 1.35 billion, attributed to increased cash payments to suppliers and slower customer collections [3][9]. - Management indicated stable operational performance early in Q3 FY2025, with sales trends consistent with Q2, and maintained the FY2025 guidance focusing on profit-oriented strategies [4][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Total operating revenue for 1H FY2025 was RMB 12.30 billion, with retail business revenue down 3% and wholesale business revenue down 10.3% YoY [2][8]. - The effective tax rate for 1H FY2025 was 20.0%, up from 17.6% in the same period last year [2][8]. - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.13 per share, with a payout ratio of 102%, slightly higher than the previous year [3][9]. Operational Trends - The total number of directly operated stores decreased by 19.4% YoY to 4,688, but the sales area per store increased by 6.5% [5][11]. - The company has built a digital matrix with over 800 Douyin accounts and over 3,600 mini-program stores, driving double-digit growth in online retail sales [5][11]. - Membership base grew to 89 million, with member sales accounting for 92.9% of total sales, indicating strong user loyalty [5][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market anticipates an escalation of the geopolitical conflict in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound. Polyolefin registered warrants are at a historical high for the same period, suppressing the market, leading to a continuous reverse spread in polyolefin prices. During the seasonal peak season, downstream demand for polyolefins is weaker than in previous years. Against the backdrop of supply - side pressure and lackluster demand, polyolefins follow cost - side fluctuations [17][18]. - The predicted trading range for polyethylene (LL2601) this week is between 7200 - 7500, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is between 7000 - 7300. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: There is an expectation of an escalation in the Venezuela geopolitical conflict, causing crude oil prices to rebound. In terms of valuation, the weekly increase in polyethylene is in the order of cost > futures > spot, while for polypropylene, it is futures > spot > cost. Last week, WTI crude oil rose by 0.39%, Brent crude oil by 1.10%, coal prices by 5.83%, methanol fell by - 2.58%, ethylene by - 3.26%, and propylene by - 3.30%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00%. Cost - side support still exists [15]. - **Supply - side**: PE capacity utilization is 80.98%, a - 1.91% week - on - week decrease but a 3.90% year - on - year increase and a - 4.39% decrease compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization is 75.30%, a - 2.55% week - on - week decrease, a - 0.66% year - on - year decrease, and an - 8.54% decrease compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, polypropylene will face significant production pressure in the fourth quarter [15]. - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase but a - 10.04% year - on - year decrease. In August, PP imports were 177,400 tons, an 11.15% month - on - month increase and a - 6.18% year - on - year decrease. Import profits are decreasing, with a reduction in PE supplies from North America, easing import - side pressure. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, a - 14.48% month - on - month decrease but a 63.54% year - on - year increase. In August, PP exports were 208,200 tons, a - 16.82% month - on - month decrease but a 21.14% year - on - year increase. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year - on - year [16]. - **Demand - side**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 0.18% week - on - week increase and a 0.11% year - on - year increase. The downstream operating rate of PP is 52.00%, a 0.29% week - on - week increase and a 0.37% year - on - year increase. During the seasonal peak season, downstream demand for polyolefins is weaker than in previous years [16]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 514,600 tons, with a - 2.81% week - on - week reduction and a 2.02% increase compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 50,000 tons, with a - 0.70% week - on - week reduction. PP production enterprise inventory is 638,500 tons, with a - 5.92% week - on - week reduction and a 12.69% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 220,000 tons, with a - 7.80% week - on - week reduction; PP port inventory is 66,800 tons, with a - 1.62% week - on - week reduction. Overall, PP inventory pressure is higher than that of PE [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the term structure, prices, basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, and registered warrants of PE and PP, including the term structure of PE and PP, the prices of LLDPE and PP main contracts, the basis of LLDPE and PP main contracts, the 1 - 5 spreads of LLDPE and PP, the open interest of LLDPE and PP active contracts, and the registered warrants of LLDPE and PP contracts. It also mentions that South Korea's ethylene plant clearance policy may boost the long - term strengthening of the LL - PP spread [31][63]. 3.3 Cost - side - The report provides a series of charts showing the prices of various raw materials and related indicators, such as the prices of PE and PP in the spot and futures markets and their costs, WTI crude oil prices, thermal coal prices, naphtha prices, propane prices, gasoline crack spreads, P/N/C prices, LPG registered warrants, domestic LPG spot and futures prices and basis, Saudi CP prices, Far East FEI prices, domestic LPG supply - side composition, China's LPG production, China's crude oil processing volume, China's major refinery capacity utilization rate and gross profit, domestic LPG import dependence, China's LPG import source proportion, South China's LPG import profit, LPG arrival volume, China's LPG import volume, Panama Canal water level, Gatun Lake water level, LPG freight rates from the US and the Middle East to the Far East, LPG refinery and port storage ratios, China's LPG demand proportion, China's LPG chemical demand proportion, China's olefin LPG actual demand, MTBE and PDH production gross profit, capacity utilization rate and output, alkylation oil production gross profit, capacity utilization rate and output, US propane prices, production, inventory, exports, and product supply [73]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - side - **Raw Material Composition**: The raw materials for PE production are mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light hydrocarbon (12.00%), coal (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [139]. - **Capacity and Production**: The report shows the annual changes in PE capacity, production, and capacity growth rate. In 2025, a total of 463 tons of polyethylene production capacity has been put into operation, with 40 tons yet to be put into operation [143][145]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The current PE capacity utilization rate is 80.98%, with a - 1.91% week - on - week decrease. The report also provides information on PE maintenance plans and the resulting production losses [15][147].