伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下降较难，盘面01给进口无风险套机会，认为01终点仍是高库存，偏向逢高 做15反套。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 塑 料 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton. Consider long rebar and short iron ore arbitrage operations for the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar for the January contract [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, with an operating range of 750 - 820 [5][7]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures are expected to rebound in a single - sided fluctuation, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. The recommended arbitrage strategy is a reverse spread between the January and May contracts. - Coking coal futures are also expected to rebound in a single - sided fluctuation, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150. The recommended arbitrage strategy is a reverse spread between the January and May contracts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, the rebar 05 contract rose from 3117 to 3167 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3288 to 3320 yuan/ton. - Steel production costs and profits showed different changes. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 19 yuan/ton [2]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.7%, and the output of five major steel products increased by 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.9%. - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.3%, the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.6%, but the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.2%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The inventory cost of some iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. For example, the inventory cost of Carajás fines increased by 1.2%, and the 01 - contract basis of Carajás fines increased by 40.5% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 4.2%, the global weekly shipping volume increased by 1.4%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.3%. - The demand indicators such as the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7%, and the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output also decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.7%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7% [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices rebounded, while some spot prices decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract rose by 2.9%, and the coking coal 01 contract rose by 2.4%. The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 3.04% [8]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.7%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%. - Some coal mines stopped production, with a total approved capacity of 540 million tons, and are expected to resume production after short - term rectification [8]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7%, and the demand for coking coal and coke weakened to some extent [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.5%, with coking plants and steel mills accumulating inventory and ports reducing inventory. - The overall coking coal inventory increased slightly, with coal washing plants, ports, and coking enterprises reducing inventory, and coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills accumulating inventory [8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: December 2, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with Iranian plants starting to shut down, the port and inland markets rebounded in resonance, the basis strengthened slightly, unloading was slow, the port has been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the 01 contract will end up with high inventory, so it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [3]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - For PP, the upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, the import profit is around - 700, and the export situation has been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. The downstream orders are average currently, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of middle and upstream enterprises are continuously accumulating. The summer maintenance of Northwest plants is seasonal, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/25 | 801 | 2057 | 2030 | 2378 | 2412 | 2385 | 2588 | 240 | 317 | - 16 | - 15 | - | | 2025/11/26 | 801 | 2088 | 2048 | 2408 | 2415 | 2390 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | - 16 | - 5 | - | | 2025/11/27 | 801 | 2100 | 2073 | 2410 | 2410 | 2390 | 2590 | 247 | 317 | - 34 | - 11 | - | | 2025/11/28 | 801 | 2110 | 2080 | 2410 | 2410 | 2390 | 2593 | 247 | 317 | - 19 | - 20 | - | | 2025/12/01 | 801 | 2115 | 2085 | 2425 | 2410 | 2390 | 2595 | - | - | - | - 15 | - | |日度变化| 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | - | 5 | - | [2] Polyethylene | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/25 | 730 | 6740 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 785 | 35 | 6762 | - 50 | 69 | 11701 | | 2025/11/26 | 730 | 6700 | 6975 | 8850 | 7050 | 795 | 785 | 85 | 6707 | - 30 | 66 | 11701 | | 2025/11/27 | 730 | 6680 | 6925 | 8800 | 7000 | 795 | 785 | 32 | 6699 | - 20 | 65 | 11701 | | 2025/11/28 | 740 | 6720 | 6950 | 8800 | 7000 | 795 | 785 | 62 | 6789 | - 30 | 65 | 11546 | | 2025/12/01 | - | 6730 | 6975 | 8725 | 7000 | - | - | - | 6803 | - 50 | - | 11481 | |日度变化| - | 10 | 25 | - 75 | 0 | - | - | - | 14 | - 20 | - | - 65 | [3] PP | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/25 | 5920 | 695 | 6270 | 6248 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6317 | - 100 | 69 | 15668 | | 2025/11/26 | 6050 | 695 | 6250 | 6213 | 6150 | 6744 | 760 | 830 | - 2 | 6265 | - 70 | 66 | 15518 | | 2025/11/27 | 6050 | 695 | 6205 | 6210 | 6150 | 6728 | 760 | 830 | - 1 | 6295 | - 70 | 65 | 15518 | | 2025/11/28 | 6000 | 695 | 6270 | 6220 | 6160 | 6710 | 765 | 830 | - 3 | 6409 | - 80 | 65 | 15866 | | 2025/12/01 | 5990 | 710 | 6330 | 6255 | 6190 | 6700 | - | - | - | 6397 | - 80 | - | 15801 | |日度变化| - 10 | 15 | 60 | 35 | 30 | - 10 | - | - | - | - 12 | 0 | - | - 65 | [3] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/25 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 415 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/26 | 2450 | 777 | 4520 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 336 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/27 | 2450 | 767 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 336 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/28 | 2500 | 767 | 4560 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | - | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/12/01 | 2500 | 742 | 4570 | - | - | 4180 | - | - | - | - | - 70 | |日度变化| 0 | - 25 | 10 | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [3]

Summary of Bosideng's 2025 Half-Year Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bosideng - **Fiscal Year**: 2025 - **Industry**: Apparel, specifically down jackets Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: Achieved 11.9 billion CNY in the first half of FY2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for the period [2][3] - **Operating Profit**: Increased by 3.1% year-on-year, reaching 11.9 billion CNY, also a historical high [3] - **Gross Margin**: Slightly improved to 50%, up by 0.1 percentage points [3] - **Inventory Turnover Days**: Decreased significantly to 178 days, down by 11 days year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [3] Business Segment Performance - **Down Jacket Business**: - Revenue grew by 8.3% to 65.68 billion CNY, accounting for 74% of total revenue [2][5] - The main brand performed well, with spring/summer product sales increasing from 15% to 18% of total sales [5] - Offline direct sales channels saw a comparable store growth of 6% [5] - **OEM Segment**: - Revenue declined by 11.7% to 20.4 billion CNY, impacted by external factors such as tariffs and geopolitical issues [5] - **Women's Wear and Diversified Apparel**: - Slight decline in revenue, but minimal impact on overall group performance [5] Market Strategy and Product Development - **New Products and Designer Collaborations**: - Demand for new and designer items exceeded expectations, particularly for the "Puff" product line, which is expected to see significant growth [6][15] - Classic items like the Extreme Cold series are anticipated to remain popular during peak season [6] - **E-commerce Strategy**: - Traditional e-commerce platforms (e.g., Tmall, JD) showed steady growth, with Tmall ranking second and JD first during the Double Eleven shopping festival [7][8] - Douyin (TikTok) saw rapid growth after restructuring its official flagship store [8] Inventory and Channel Management - **Inventory Management**: - Focused on destocking in the first half of FY2025 due to excess inventory from a warm winter in 2024 [9] - Healthy inventory levels maintained, with no anticipated burdens for the second half of the fiscal year [13] - **Channel Strategy**: - Expected revenue split between self-operated and distribution channels to be approximately 70:30 [4][9] Future Outlook - **Growth Projections**: - The company aims for a double-digit growth rate of 10% for the full fiscal year, with the down jacket segment expected to exceed 10% growth in the second half [4][11] - **Pricing Strategy**: - Average selling price (ASP) expected to remain stable or slightly increase compared to the previous year [18][19] - **Store Expansion**: - Anticipated slight increase in total store count, with plans to open and close several stores [20] Brand-Specific Strategies - **Xuezhongfei and Bingjie Brands**: - Focus on online sales with minimal changes in offline store strategy; Xuezhongfei aims to solidify its position in the ice and snow sports market [21] - **Response to Seasonal Sales Pressure**: - Sales performance aligns with expectations due to significant adjustments in inventory, channels, and product innovation [22] Additional Insights - **OEM Order Visibility**: - Long-term demand from large brands is promising, but immediate growth is not expected for the current fiscal year [12] - **Women's Wear Challenges**: - Short-term revenue and profit growth not anticipated; strategies include personnel optimization and product mix adjustments [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Bosideng's FY25/26 interim results show a steady performance with revenue growth of 1.4% to 8.93 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 5.3% to 1.19 billion yuan, indicating high-quality growth and operational resilience since the strategic transformation in 2018 [1][4] Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.063 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 55% [1] - The brand's down jacket business, as the core engine, saw an 8.3% revenue increase to 6.57 billion yuan, accounting for 73.6% of total revenue [1] - The main brand, Bosideng, achieved an 8.3% revenue growth to 5.72 billion yuan, while the Snow Flying brand experienced a slight decline of 3.2% [1] - The OEM processing business faced a revenue decline of 11.7% to 2.04 billion yuan due to uncertainties from tariff policies and geopolitical factors [1] Channel Performance - Both self-operated and franchised channels showed steady growth, with self-operated revenue increasing by 6.6% to 2.41 billion yuan and franchise revenue rising by 7.9% to 3.70 billion yuan [2] - The total number of retail outlets for the down jacket business increased by 88 to 3,558, with 3 new self-operated stores and 85 new franchise stores [2] Operational Efficiency - The company's gross profit margin slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0% [2] - The net profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 13.3%, despite an increase in sales expense ratio by 1.7 percentage points to 27.5% [3] - Inventory turnover days decreased significantly by 11 days to 178 days, indicating effective inventory management [3] - Cash and cash equivalents reached approximately 3 billion yuan, with net cash value increasing by 38.8 billion yuan year-on-year [3] Long-term Outlook - Bosideng has over 40 years of experience in the down jacket industry, with strong consumer recognition and ongoing expansion into outdoor and functional apparel segments [4] - The company maintains profit forecasts for FY26-28, expecting net profits of 3.9 billion, 4.34 billion, and 4.75 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 times [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - In FY2025Q3 (July 1, 2025 - September 30, 2025), Amer Sports achieved revenue of $1.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30% (28% at constant exchange rates), exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations of $1.72 billion. The gross margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to 56.8%, primarily driven by channel, regional, and product mix optimization. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 38% to $350 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 156% to $140 million, with a net profit margin of 8.1%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue growth was strong across all segments: 1. By product: Technical Apparel/Outdoor Performance/Ball & Racquet Sports revenues increased by 31%/36%/16% to $680 million/$720 million/$350 million, respectively, with constant exchange rates showing similar growth [5]. 2. By channel: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) and wholesale revenues grew by 51% and 18% to $720 million and $1.03 billion, respectively, maintaining high growth across channels [5]. 3. By region: Revenues in the Americas/EMEA/Asia-Pacific/Greater China increased by 18%/23%/54%/47% to $570 million/$530 million/$190 million/$460 million, with all regions accelerating growth [5]. Inventory and Guidance - As of FY2025Q3, the company's inventory amounted to $1.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with inventory levels remaining moderately high. The growth in inventory was mainly due to increases in Arcteryx inventory and exchange rate effects, with expectations for inventory growth to normalize by the second half of 2026 [10]. - The company raised its full-year guidance, projecting FY2025 revenue growth of 23% to 24% (previously 20% to 21%). Specific segment forecasts include Technical Apparel at 26% to 27%, Outdoor Performance at 28% to 29%, and Ball & Racquet Sports at 10% to 11%. The expected FY2025 gross margin is approximately 58% (previously 57.5%), with operating profit margins between 12.5% and 12.7% (previously 11.8% to 12.2%). EPS is projected to be between $0.88 and $0.92 (previously $0.77 to $0.82) [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but considering the large floating storage, it is expected to return to a state of inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the end - state of the 01 contract will still be high inventory. It is advisable to take advantage of high prices to conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread operation [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price differentials fluctuate, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance operations in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has recently decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Against the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a moderately excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance operations, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, the near - end export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the动力煤期货price remained at 801. The prices of江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, and CFR东南亚 showed various changes. For example, the江苏 spot price increased from 2053 to 2100, and the CFR China price increased from 237 to 247 [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants have shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland. The basis has strengthened slightly, and port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there is a large amount of floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the东北亚乙烯price remained at 730 on some days. The prices of华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 showed fluctuations. For example, the华北LL price decreased from 6760 to 6680 and then increased to 6720 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the山东丙烯price changed from 5900 to 6000, and the东北亚丙烯price remained at 695 on some days. The prices of华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, and PP美湾 also showed fluctuations. For example, the华东PP price decreased from 6285 to 6205 and then increased to 6270 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the西北电石price increased from 2450 to 2500, and the山东烧碱price remained at 777 on some days. The prices of电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价, and出口利润 also showed changes. For example, the电石 - based PVC price in East China increased from 4530 to 4560 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports [6].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 库存跟踪： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：现实基本面仍有压力，宏观与消息影响边际。精炼镍累库矛盾和湿法投产预期压制估值， 火法利润遭重导致 11 月精炼镍排产环比减少 6%至 31580 吨，部分企业将精炼镍转向非标镍生产，但由于 市场普遍预期隐性补库放缓，耐腐合金需求承压，叠加镍合金端使用镍铁取代镍板的比例有所提高，累库 矛盾尚未完全化解。同时，远端低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间品环节湿法出清火法的长线 逻辑或仍有拖累。从宏观与消息面看，美联储偏鸽派言论提振，降息预期回升，宏观压力阶段性缓和，同 时，印尼的资源治理动作频繁，低位追空仍需关注风险。印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预 算，且印尼能矿部也表示对明年或可能削减配额，仍需紧密关注印尼审批进展的下一步动作。因此，整体 而言，现实面和预期都存在压力，但是短线在还未实质出清的阶段，宏观情绪回升，叠加消息面仍存 ...

Core Viewpoint - HLA's IPO aims to deepen its global strategy and accelerate overseas business development, despite recent performance challenges and declining stock prices [2][12]. Group 1: Company Overview - HLA is the second-largest men's apparel brand globally by revenue in 2024 and has held the top position in the Asian men's apparel market for 11 consecutive years since 2014 [2][8]. - The company has over 7,200 stores worldwide as of June 30, 2025, and has expanded its brand portfolio to include women's wear, children's clothing, and collaborations with global sports brands [5][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, HLA reported revenue of 15.599 billion RMB, a slight increase of 2.23%, but net profit decreased by 18.62 billion RMB, down 2.37% year-on-year [8]. - Revenue fluctuated between 17.9 billion RMB and 21.9 billion RMB from 2019 to 2024, indicating a lack of sustained growth, with 2024 revenue down nearly 7% [10][11]. Group 3: Market Challenges - HLA faces ongoing inventory issues, with stock reaching 11.518 billion RMB and an inventory turnover period of 323 days as of Q3 2025 [13]. - The company has been removed from the MSCI index, reflecting weakened international investor confidence in its growth and profitability prospects [12][13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record net sales of $1.3 billion for Q3 2025, up 7% year-over-year, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of growth [5][15] - Gross margin was 62.5% and operating margin was 12%, both impacted by approximately 210 basis points due to tariffs [6][17] - Earnings per share exceeded expectations at $2.36, compared to $2.50 in the previous year [7][17] - The company repurchased $100 million worth of shares in the quarter, totaling $350 million year-to-date, representing 9% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year [5][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Abercrombie brands saw a net sales decline of 2% with comparable sales down 7%, primarily due to lower average unit retail (AUR) [8][16] - Hollister brands experienced a 16% increase in net sales and a 15% rise in comparable sales, benefiting from strong cross-channel traffic and lower promotions [10][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, net sales increased by 7%, while EMEA also saw a 7% increase, offset by a 6% decline in APAC [15][19] - Comparable sales in the Americas were up 4%, EMEA up 2%, and APAC down 12% [15][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainable long-term growth through investments in marketing, stores, and technology, including AI enhancements in customer service [12][22] - The strategy includes a blend of owned and operated, franchise, wholesale, and licensing models to capture global growth opportunities [8][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the fourth quarter outlook, narrowing full-year sales expectations to the upper end of the range, anticipating a strong finish to 2025 [6][19] - The company is prepared for the holiday season, having tested and learned from previous quarters to optimize inventory and product assortment [13][22] Other Important Information - The company plans to open 36 new stores by the end of the year and has made significant investments in digital technology to enhance customer experience [9][12] - The anticipated impact of tariffs for the full year is around $90 million, with ongoing efforts to mitigate these costs [19][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Abercrombie brand performance by category and region - Management highlighted positive traffic and customer engagement, with a focus on denim, fleece, and sweaters for the fourth quarter [26][27] Question: Expectations for Hollister's momentum into 2026 - Management noted balanced growth across genders and categories, with strong customer engagement and inventory management [33][34] Question: Inventory composition and gross margin considerations for Q4 - Inventory is in good shape, with a 5% year-over-year increase at cost, and management expects continued AUR growth despite tariff impacts [42][43] Question: Marketing plans and promotional strategies - Management emphasized intentional marketing investments and a focus on brand building, with flexibility to adjust promotions based on demand [61][68] Question: Tariff impacts and pricing adjustments - Management anticipates a reduction in tariff headwinds in 2026, with pricing adjustments expected to take effect in early 2026 [82][84]