美联储博斯蒂克：抗通胀仍有很长的路要走，核心价格"仍然是一个问题"。 ...

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1] - The interbank market showed slight fluctuations in repo rates, with overnight rates around 1.4% and a rise in rates for overnight borrowing against credit bonds to 1.6% [3] - The central bank's liquidity support remains strong, with no liquidity gap expected in June, although fluctuations may occur due to fiscal spending at month-end [3] Interest Rate Adjustments - The latest LPR was set at 3% for 1-year loans and 3.5% for loans over 5 years, marking a decrease of 10 basis points, the first reduction since October of the previous year [5] - Major state-owned banks have begun to lower deposit rates, with reductions ranging from 5 to 25 basis points, and some large-denomination deposit rates dropping by up to 35 basis points [5][6] - The recent interest rate cuts are seen as a continuation of the easing policy, with expectations that the next rate cut window may not occur until at least the third quarter [6] Economic Outlook and Policy Measures - The central bank emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing for the real economy and maintain reasonable growth in financial aggregates [7] - The government is focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations while promoting consumption and supporting key sectors such as technology innovation and foreign trade [7] - A recent monetary policy execution report highlighted the importance of boosting consumption to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth, while also addressing the balance of supply and demand in the economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the cautious stance of financial institutions and the impact of international trade policies on various commodities and sectors [1][4][5]. Domestic News - The Chinese government encourages U.S. financial institutions to deepen cooperation in the capital market [1]. - State-owned enterprises reported total revenue of 262,755 billion yuan from January to April, with a profit of 13,491.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [5]. International News - The European Commission aims to reduce carbon emissions by 54% by 2030, slightly below its 55% target, and plans to propose a 90% reduction by 2040 despite opposition from member states [4]. Commodity Insights Oil - SC night trading rose by 0.84%, with OPEC and its allies planning to hold meetings to discuss production levels, including a potential increase of 41.1 million barrels per day [2][10]. Coal and Coke - Short-term expectations for thermal coal prices are stable, but a downward trend is anticipated afterward. Coke supply is slightly reduced, but high inventory levels hinder market sentiment [3][24]. Agricultural Products - Oilseed prices are weak due to increased domestic soybean supply and expectations of rising inventories. Palm oil production is also increasing, leading to higher stock levels [3][25]. Metals - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to stable domestic demand and external factors such as U.S. trade negotiations. Zinc prices are also expected to be volatile, supported by improving domestic automotive and construction sectors [15][17]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has weakened, with expectations of further declines in freight rates due to increased capacity and lower demand [29].

Recent Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have experienced a significant decline, with spot gold dropping below $3,300 per ounce and COMEX futures falling to $3,299.70 per ounce, marking a nearly 1.5% decrease [1] - Domestic gold prices have also adjusted, with wholesale market prices in Shenzhen decreasing from 792 yuan per gram to 756 yuan per gram, a drop of over 4% [3] Factors Influencing Gold Price Fluctuations - Short-term drivers include a stronger US dollar and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have diminished gold's appeal [4] - Easing geopolitical risks, such as President Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and the lack of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine situation, have reduced safe-haven demand [5] - Technical adjustments following a rapid price increase have also contributed to the recent downturn [6] Market Reactions and Consumer Trends - Consumer purchasing behavior is showing a divide, with smaller jewelry items gaining popularity while larger purchases, like wedding gold, are being approached with caution due to high prices [8] - There is an increase in gold recycling as some holders are selling old jewelry to cash in on the price drop [8] Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors are waiting for lower entry points, such as below 700 yuan per gram, while institutions view the current adjustment as a buying opportunity [9] - Wall Street quantitative funds are leaning towards short positions, whereas Asian investors are buying on dips [10] Future Price Predictions - Short-term forecasts indicate that gold will fluctuate within a range of $3,300 to $3,350, with $3,320 as a key support level; a drop below this could lead to a decline to $3,280 [11] - Long-term projections from institutions like Goldman Sachs suggest that gold prices could reach between $3,500 and $4,000 per ounce by 2026, supported by central bank purchases, normalized geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credibility [12]

实时数据：5月26日亚盘早市，现货黄金延续上周五跌势，日内最低触及3331.38美元/盎司，较上周五收盘价3356.21美元/ 盎司下跌约0.23%。 | 昨收 | 3356.21 | 最高 | 3356.81 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3356.18 | 最低 | 3331.38 | | 买入 | 3348.63 | 卖出 | 3348.83 | 一、特朗普政策反复无常，贸易风险持续扰动市场 交易策略：详情请见专栏《独家观点》 尽管短期波动加剧，但黄金长期牛市根基未改。美国联邦债务突破36万亿美元，穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，叠加关税可 能推升通胀至3.0-3.5%，黄金作为抗通胀和避险资产的需求持续增强。此外，央行购金和ETF资金流入提供长期支撑， 2025年金价仍有望冲击3400美元/盎司。投资者可利用回调机会逐步布局中长期多单，止损参考3300美元关键支撑。 风险提示：以上分析基于公开信息，不构成投资建议。市场有风险，交易需谨慎。 二、美联储会议纪要与PCE数据成关键节点 本周市场将聚焦两大核心事件： 美联储5月会议纪要（5月29日）：市场预期纪要将披露美联储 ...

金十数据5月22日讯，欧洲央行会议纪要显示，欧洲央行决策者上月表示，欧元区通胀几乎被遏制，即 便贸易途径可能进一步引发通胀，但贸易紧张局势可能在短期内打压物价。欧洲央行上月在一年内第七 次降息，并警告称，经济增长将受到美国关税的严重打击，这加大了未来几个月进一步放宽政策的押 注。欧洲央行在会议纪要中表示："委员们表示，对通胀将在中期内回归目标水平的信心增强，对通胀 冲击的斗争已接近尾声。因此，反通胀的力量很可能在短期内占据主导地位。"尽管自4月会议以来，贸 易紧张局势在很大程度上有所缓解，但普遍存在的不确定性继续打压市场情绪，使人们坚定地押注欧洲 央行将于6月再次降息。不过，一些政策制定者认为，从长远来看，贸易战将导致通胀。会议纪要补充 称："鉴于破坏全球价值链的破坏性影响，这些委员认为贸易冲击在短期内引发通胀的可能性更大。" 欧洲央行会议纪要：抗通胀的进程已接近尾声 ...

周三（5月21日）亚盘时段，现货黄金守住隔夜涨幅并刷新短期高点，盘中最高触及3315美元附近后维持强势，目前交投于3310美元附近。黄金价格周二上 涨逾 1%，收报3289.54美元/盎司，因美国关税政策的不确定性导致美元进一步走弱且美股下跌，而且俄罗斯和乌克兰的冲突并未缓和，仍吸引避险买盘支 撑金价。 基本面： 美元指数的持续疲软为黄金上涨提供了另一大助力。周二美元下跌0.35%，触及100关口，周三亚市早盘更是一度跌破99.96，创5月8日以来新低。美联储内 部对通胀的分歧加剧了市场的不确定性。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克直言，关税政策的滞后效应可能推高物价，但通胀是"昙花一现"还是"长期顽疾"仍需观 察。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆则警告，若低估关税对通胀的影响，可能酿成更严重的危机。这种政策迷雾使得美联储降息预期升温，美元吸引力下降，而 黄金的"抗通胀"属性被进一步放大。 此外，本周以来，全球地缘政治局势骤然升温，成为推动黄金价格飙升的核心动力。中东局势的恶化尤其引人注目——以色列被曝正密谋袭击伊朗核设施， 这一消息瞬间点燃市场避险情绪。美国情报显示，以色列已调动航空弹药并完成空中演习，尽管最终行动尚未敲定， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and the weakening of the US dollar due to uncertainties surrounding US tax policies and credit ratings [1][3][5] - Gold prices surged past $3,300 per ounce for the first time since May 9, with a notable increase of nearly 2% during trading sessions, closing at $3,289.98 per ounce [1][3] - The geopolitical situation, especially the potential military actions by Israel against Iran, has heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][5] Group 2 - The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's from "AAA" to "AA1" has contributed to the decline of the US dollar, which fell to its lowest level since May 8, further supporting gold prices [3][4] - The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with the uncertainty surrounding US fiscal policies, have created a favorable environment for gold, enhancing its appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic instability [4][5] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials and developments in US tax reform discussions, as these could influence the direction of the dollar and, consequently, gold prices [7][9]

【基本面】 美联储内部对通胀的分歧加剧了市场的不确定性。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克认为关税政策的滞后效应可能推高物价，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆则警告低 估关税影响可能酿成更严重的危机。这种政策迷雾使得美联储降息预期升温，美元吸引力下降，而黄金的"抗通胀"属性被进一步放大。 综合来看，黄金当前正处于地缘政治风险、美元走弱和技术面突破的三重利好之中。中东局势若进一步恶化，可能成为金价突破历史高点的导火索；美联储 政策转向的预期则可能在中长期继续为金价提供支撑。对于投资者而言，黄金不仅是避险工具，更是对抗通胀和政策不确定性的战略资产。在当前复杂多变 的"乱世"中，黄金的璀璨光芒或许才刚刚开始闪耀。投资者应密切关注市场动态，把握黄金投资的机会。 本交易日经济数据相对较少，投资者主要留意美国税改法案相关消息，关注地缘局势相关消息，留意美联储官员讲话和国际贸易局势变化。在全球经济和金 融市场充满不确定性的当下，黄金投资的重要性不言而喻，合理配置黄金资产有望在动荡中实现资产的保值增值。 【技术面】 【黄金】 行情回顾： 首先我们先对昨日周二黄金市场做整体的梳理，在昨日市场中黄金价格呈现出上涨的状态。从细节上看，早盘期间价格短 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its second interest rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations, and analysts predict two more cuts may follow [1][2] - The RBA's decision to cut rates is driven by concerns over weak economic growth and inflation data indicating a moderation in inflationary pressures, with the first quarter's trimmed mean inflation rate at 2.9%, entering the RBA's target range for the first time since 2021 [2][3] - Recent economic indicators show resilience in the Australian economy, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.1%, a quarterly wage price index increase of 0.9%, and a slight rise in consumer confidence to 92.1 points [2] Group 2 - The RBA expressed a cautious stance regarding future rate cuts, highlighting uncertainties related to global trade and geopolitical factors that could negatively impact economic growth, employment, and inflation [3][4] - The RBA has revised its inflation forecasts downward, with the overall inflation rate expected to be 2.1% compared to a previous estimate of 2.4%, indicating a shift in focus from anti-inflation measures to supporting economic growth [4][5] - Analysts anticipate multiple rate cuts in the future, with predictions of cuts in August and November, potentially lowering the benchmark rate to 3.35% by year-end [5][6]