撰 文 / 刘宝华 设 计 / 赵昊然 新汽车时代，传统车企要应对的不只是电动化、智能化等技术变革，还有因这些变革和新品牌入局 引发的品牌格局重塑。 在企业定位上，从10年前要成为出行公司，到几年前的做科技公司，再到今年流行的AI公司，对消 费者和资本市场，汽车企业都需要表现出与时俱进的活力，以免给人落伍、掉队的印象。 在品牌形象上，传统车企都面临选择：是与时俱进地转型，与新品牌一样打电动、智能牌，还是坚 持原有的品牌标签？ 能感受到，经过一段时间的混沌、纠结与抉择后，更多传统车企在2025年想清楚了这个问题。 4月15日，离上一次大换代超过10年的沃尔沃旗舰车型XC90迎来全新一代上市。相比如今的新车发 布会普遍要把一款车从底盘、悬挂、动力、性能、智驾、智舱、座椅、音响通通讲一遍，细化到用 什么芯片、算力多少、发动机热效率、电池续航、充电速度，全新XC90发布会90%以上时间只讲 了一件事——安全。 稍微了解汽车的可能都知道安全是沃尔沃一直以来的最大标签，反过来，沃尔沃几乎就是汽车安全 的代名词。但在一场全新旗舰车型上市发布会上只讲一个产品点，是极其罕见和冒险的。 这还不够，近一个月前的3月17日，沃尔沃在 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is under pressure due to fluctuating tariff policies, with the Hang Seng Index dropping nearly 1% and the Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (159750) declining by 1.70% [1] - Major technology stocks like Huawei Semiconductor and SMIC are performing well, while Alibaba-W has dropped over 3% and Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group have fallen by over 1% [1] - Southbound capital inflow has accelerated, with significant net purchases in major tech stocks, totaling a net buy of 26 billion HKD for Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi combined [1] Group 2 - According to CMB International, the Hong Kong stock market is primarily driven by domestic demand, and further support from domestic policies is expected amid external uncertainties [2] - Dongguan Securities notes that the Hong Kong market is concentrated in technology, finance, and consumer sectors, which account for 61.56% of market capitalization, while lower-tier manufacturing is less affected by international trade tensions [3] - Mainstream institutions are focusing on a balanced allocation of "high elasticity + high dividend" strategies to cope with uncertainties [4] Group 3 - CICC believes that internet technology with low export exposure remains a key focus, and there is a rotation potential with dividend assets [5] - CMB International continues to favor the AI and technology sectors in Hong Kong, highlighting opportunities in AI infrastructure suppliers, cloud service providers, and companies with strong technological capabilities [5] - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (159750) has seen a 295% increase in shares this year, indicating high investor interest in technology companies with substantial R&D investment and revenue growth [5]

4）但汽车毛利率继续环比上行，表现还不错： 汽车业务四季度毛利率 17.3%，继续环比上行 1.5 个百分点，主要仍在于规模效应的释放带来的单车摊折成本的下 滑。 5）研发费用高增，带动经营利润和经调整后净利润不及预期： 研发费用本季度环比的大幅上升（环比上行 12 亿）, 虽然毛利率超出市场预期，但最后经营利润和 经调整后净利仍双双 miss 预期。 海豚君认为主要极氪仍在加速补足智驾短板，以及为 2025 年推出的 5 款新车型发布做准备，所以相对可以理解，但仍然需要让市场看到以换取销量的增长作为前 提。 | | | | | | 极搞财报數据概览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:亿元 | 1072 | 2072 | 3022 | 40 22 | 1025 | 2023 | 3 023 | 4023 | 1024 | 2024 | 3024 | 40724 | 4Q24E 4Q24 Gap | | | SIR ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, driven by the growth of its rear camera business and rising demand for laser radar in the smart driving sector [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.494 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 169%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 119 million yuan, up 156% year-on-year [2]. - In the second half of 2024, the company’s revenue reached 1.896 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 242% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 218%. The net profit for this period was 103 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 261% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 544% [2]. - The net profit margin for the full year 2024 is projected to be 4.8%, with the second half showing a margin of 5.4%, indicating an improvement in profitability as the rear camera business scales up [2]. Group 2: Business Growth Drivers - The rear camera business is entering a growth phase, with successful penetration into the iPhone's new ultra-wide and periscope camera segments, contributing to substantial revenue growth [2]. - The demand for laser radar is rapidly increasing, benefiting from the widespread adoption of smart driving technologies [2]. - The company is expected to continue strong performance in the first half of 2025, supported by the new iPhone 17 models featuring optical innovations [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding into new business areas such as AR/VR, smart driving, and robotics, which are expected to provide long-term growth opportunities [3]. - In AR/VR, the company is involved in Apple's innovations, focusing on core optical components like MicroLED display technology [3]. - In the smart driving sector, the company has established a deep partnership with a leading player, providing laser radar module services [3].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of XPeng Motors in 2024 is strong, with significant revenue growth and improved gross margins, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future profitability and product development [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, XPeng Motors' revenue increased by 33.2% year-on-year to 40.87 billion yuan, with a gross margin up by 12.8 percentage points to 14.3%. The Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 41.2% to 5.55 billion yuan [2]. - For Q4 2024, total revenue rose by 23.4% year-on-year and 59.4% quarter-on-quarter to 16.11 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 14.4% [2][3]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 14.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.8%. The gross margin for automotive business reached 10.0% [3]. Group 2: Cost Management - R&D expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year to 12.5%, while SG&A expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 14.1% [3]. - As of Q4 2024, cash and cash equivalents totaled approximately 41.96 billion yuan, indicating a strong cash reserve [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2025, XPeng is expected to have a robust product lineup, including models like Mona M03, G6, G9, P7+, G7, and X9, with multiple electric and hybrid products set to launch in the second half of the year [4]. - The company aims to achieve a threefold growth trajectory through advancements in intelligent driving, globalization, and humanoid robotics [4]. - XPeng's overseas sales are projected to exceed 20,000 units in 2024, with plans to double overseas sales and dealer networks in 2025 [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the investment value analysis of various companies, highlighting their financial performance and strategic directions in their respective industries [4][5][6][8][9][10][11]. Group 2 - **Liugong (000528.SZ)**: Established in 1958, the company has evolved into a major manufacturer of construction machinery, achieving a revenue of 27.52 billion yuan in 2023, ranking 19th globally and 4th domestically in the industry. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 1.32 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 59.8% [4]. - **Sinopec Oilfield Service (600871.SH/1033.HK)**: In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 81.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%, with a net profit of 632 million yuan, up 7.19%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue increase of 8.59% year-on-year and 45.11% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - **XPeng Motors (XPEV.N)**: The company achieved a revenue of 40.87 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.2%. The gross margin improved by 12.8 percentage points to 14.3%, while the Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 41.2% to 5.55 billion yuan [6]. - **Yuewen Group (0772.HK)**: The company reported a revenue of 8.12 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. However, it faced a net loss of 210 million yuan due to goodwill impairment related to New Classics Media, despite an adjusted net profit of 1.14 billion yuan [8]. - **Xtep International (1368.HK)**: In 2024, the company saw a revenue increase of 6.5% and a net profit increase of 20.2%. The main brand and professional sports revenue grew by 3.2% and 57.2%, respectively, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [9]. - **China Resources Beer (0291.HK)**: The company reported a revenue of 38.64 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.8%, with a net profit of 4.74 billion yuan, down 8%. The core EBIT improved by 2.9% [10]. - **MediKarma (688373.SH)**: The company achieved a revenue of 130 million yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 43.51%. However, it reported a net loss of 441 million yuan, which was a 4.65% increase in losses compared to the previous year [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on the anticipated sales and margin improvements driven by strong vehicle cycles and ongoing collaborations with major partners [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong overall performance for the year, with a revenue increase of 33.2% year-on-year to 40.87 billion RMB, although slightly below the expected 44.59 billion RMB. The gross margin improved by 12.8 percentage points to 14.3%, and the Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 41.2% to 5.55 billion RMB, compared to the expected 4.78 billion RMB [1][4]. - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 16.11 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59.4%. The gross margin for this quarter was 14.4%, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 1.39 billion RMB, down 21.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 40.87 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.3% and a Non-GAAP net loss of 5.55 billion RMB. Q4 2024 revenue was 16.11 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.4% [1][2][4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 deliveries to be approximately 91,000 to 93,000 units, indicating a strong start to the year [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is set to launch a robust product lineup in 2025, including models like Mona M03, G6, G9, P7+, G7, and X9. The introduction of new electric and hybrid products in the second half of 2025 is anticipated to drive growth [3]. - The company has established a presence in over 30 countries and aims to double its overseas sales and dealer network in 2025, leveraging its new overseas R&D center to enhance AI driving capabilities [3]. Future Outlook - The report projects a turning point in profitability for 2025, with expected Non-GAAP net profits of approximately 248 million RMB, followed by 7.78 billion RMB in 2026 and 11.39 billion RMB in 2027 [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from its strong vehicle cycle and the integration of AI technology, which is anticipated to enhance sales and valuation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on the anticipated sales and margin improvements driven by strong vehicle cycles and ongoing collaborations with major partners [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong overall performance for the year 2024, with revenue increasing by 33.2% year-on-year to 40.87 billion RMB, although slightly below the expected 44.59 billion RMB. The gross margin improved by 12.8 percentage points to 14.3%, and the Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 41.2% to 5.55 billion RMB, compared to the expected 4.78 billion RMB [1][4]. - In Q4 2024, total revenue rose by 23.4% year-on-year and 59.4% quarter-on-quarter to 16.11 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.4%. The Non-GAAP net loss for the quarter was 1.39 billion RMB, a decrease of 21.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.67 billion RMB, reflecting a 20.0% year-on-year increase and a 66.8% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 21.1% year-on-year to 160,000 RMB, while the delivery volume increased by 52% year-on-year to 92,000 units [2]. - The company’s cash reserves increased, with cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately 41.96 billion RMB as of Q4 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to reach a profitability inflection point in 2025, with a strong product lineup including models like Mona M03, G6, G9, P7+, G7, and X9. The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see the delivery of multiple electric and hybrid models [3]. - The report highlights three growth curves for the company: intelligent driving, globalization, and humanoid robots. The company has validated its technology and commercialization capabilities in the intelligent driving market and plans to expand its overseas sales and dealer network significantly [3]. Profitability Forecast - The revised profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are Non-GAAP net profits of approximately 250 million RMB and 7.78 billion RMB, respectively, down from previous estimates of 5.36 billion RMB and 11.53 billion RMB [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a Non-GAAP net profit of approximately 11.39 billion RMB by 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 123.83 [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 40.9 billion and a net loss of RMB 5.8 billion in 2024, with a significant recovery projected in 2025, where revenue is anticipated to reach RMB 85.6 billion and a reduced net loss of RMB 2.0 billion [1][5]. - The company is optimistic about its new vehicle performance in 2025, with a strong new car cycle expected to drive sales growth and scale effects [1][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved record revenue of RMB 161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59% [2]. - The automotive gross margin improved to 10% in Q4 2024, marking six consecutive quarters of improvement [2]. - The company expects to deliver between 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 317% to 326% [1][2]. Product Development - The company launched the updated G6 and G9 models, with significant pre-order numbers indicating strong market interest [3]. - Multiple new models are set to be released throughout 2025, including the G7 and MONA M03, which are expected to contribute to doubling annual sales [3]. Global Expansion - The company plans to accelerate its global expansion, targeting entry into 60 countries and regions by the end of 2025, with over 300 overseas sales outlets [4]. - The company is also exploring new growth avenues through flying cars and robotics, with plans for production in 2026 [4]. Valuation and Estimates - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at RMB 85.6 billion, RMB 97.7 billion, and RMB 124.7 billion respectively, with a focus on maintaining strong sales growth [5][11]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 123.83 based on improved operational performance and new product cycles [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 146.11 [8][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved record revenue in Q4 2024, with a revenue of RMB 443 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, driven by a record delivery volume of 158,000 vehicles [2][5]. - The company is expected to launch new models, including the i8 and i6, in the second half of 2025, which are anticipated to enhance sales performance [3][4]. - The report adjusts the sales forecast for 2025-2027 down to 690,000, 920,000, and 990,000 units respectively, reflecting increased competition in the mid-to-large SUV segment [13][14]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 1,445 billion and a net profit of RMB 80 billion, with a gross margin of 20.5% [1]. - The Q4 2024 gross margin was reported at 20%, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix and policy changes [2]. - The company plans to increase R&D spending to RMB 131 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19% [2][14]. Valuation and Comparables - The report uses comparable companies such as Geely and BYD to derive a valuation, applying a 22x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a premium due to the company's advanced driving capabilities and new electric vehicle launches [5][16]. - The target price of HKD 146.11 represents a 29% premium over the average PE of comparable companies [16][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its dual-energy matrix with the launch of the i8, a mid-to-large six-seat SUV, which is expected to improve market share and customer conversion rates [3][4]. - The company’s self-developed AD Max system has shown significantly lower takeover rates compared to Tesla's FSD, indicating strong competitive positioning in smart driving technology [4].